US Murder Rate Headed for Record 1-Year Drop
The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.

That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.

According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.

Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.

Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.