Lott's analysis of Anthropic's Claude model progression is enlightening:
Claude-2 (July 2023, 4 months later): ~82 IQ
Claude-3 (March 2024, 8 months later): ~101 IQ
Based on this trend, Lott projects:
Claude-4 (expected in 12-16 months): ~120 IQ
Claude-5 (16-32 months after Claude-4): ~140 IQ
Claude-6 (20-64 months after Claude-5): Smarter than everyone
"I now think that timeline is holding up, and that OpenAI has always been about 6 months ahead of Anthropic/Claude, behind the scenes. If so, then we should start seeing AIs breaking 140 IQ in 2026."