No sooner did I post the above comment and link when I come across this gem about China and its birth rate.
Some good info in there about not only China but also Japan and Korea.
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It sure is some interesting information. I guess having so much data on their population came in helpful when they needed to see what policy has the best effect. However I think it is clearly a downward trend.
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We will increase most likely into the middle of this century, on a global basis and then head down.
The west is already heading that was as is Eastern Asia.
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India also wanted to introduce two-child policy but we looked at the existing problem with China and backed off ( fortunately ) .
Also the fertility rate is around 2.2 in India right now ( 2.1 is the rate of replacement ) so we don't need any policy in this front for now .
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India is one of the areas that is destined to keep growing along with Nigeria.
They will be the two most populous according to researchers expectations.
Of course, that could change as the country gets wealthier. That tends to diminish growth rates of population since people have more options and focuses.
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Yeah ? But a recent forecast predicted that from 2050 Indian population will start declining and by 2100 we will be less than a billion .
Right now we are 1.3B .
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Yeah China is set to lose about 500 million people by 2100. They are going to peak in the next few years so they are about 25 years ahead of India.
It is bound to happen. As populations grow and countries get wealthier, the number of children decline. This happens all over the world.
So the fear of overpopulation, in the next 20-25 years, the mantra will be the fear of underpopulation and there wont be enough people for us to survive as a species.
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Yeah when the survey results were announced , they tied the population / fertility rate to two things .
The more educated a woman is the less number of children she will have .
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Author Matthew Yglesias has a book out One Billion Americans, where he discusses how having a billion people here would benefit our country.
source
I get what he's saying in positioning us against for example, China, but since we have one of the three federal immigrant detention centers nearby, we've been innundated with a wave of destitue people here, when we can't even care for the locals.
Can we absorb that many people?
This would also drastically change the politics of America. We have 330 million now, Adding another 700 million would change everything. If it happens, it'll be interesting to watch.
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