The main reason for this is the steady decline in EV prices during the past two years, which is expected to continue going forward. The average price paid for a new EV by an individual is currently $35,900–including incentives–down $12,700 from $48,500 in 2022. Add the fact that most people who currently own an EV–94% to be precise–said they are likely to consider an EV for their next vehicle purchase, and you get a scenario where in 2028 and 2029 the market will once again be flooded with used EVs from people who chose to end their contract and get a new car instead.

All this being said, there’s no escaping the uncertainty about the future of tax credits and incentives. If they’re gone, we might see the market change once again–we just don’t know how yet.