Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations. In short, his thesis is that interest rates will rise as the Government goes broke. However, a closer look at historical precedent and current fiscal dynamics suggests these concerns are overstated. Contrary to Jones’ warnings, the U.S. economy has structural strengths that make an imminent fiscal collapse unlikely.

Paul Tudor Jones’ warnings are not unusual, but like James Grant’s views, they are not well supported by longer-term data. The chart below shows the long-term view of short and long-bond interest rates, inflation, and GDP.