Actually that is not the case. Consider how the generational change just in the last 40 years.
in the 1980s, only the wealthy could afford mobile communications. Yet today, people in third world nations have it.
People always mess this situation up by overlooking the standard of living. 90% of the world lives far better than their great grandparents. When something becomes low to no cost, the closing isnt seen because it is no longer monetized.
In a recent report titled "How Arc is Thinking About Humanoid Robots," investment firm Arc Invest explores the potential economic impact of widespread humanoid robot adoption. This analysis, inspired by Elon Musk's vision of sentient humanoid robots navigating reality and performing tasks on command, paints a picture of a dramatically transformed global economy.
Arc Invest's research suggests that even before reaching human-level capabilities, humanoid robots could generate a staggering $24 trillion in revenue. This economic potential is expected to be split equally between household and manufacturingapplications.
In the household sector, the opportunity is calculated based on the current 2.3 hours of unpaid work performed daily by the global working-age population. By attributing half the value of this time to robots, Arc Invest estimates a $12.5 trillion market.
For manufacturing, the report compares current human labor with potential robot labor. The U.S. manufacturing sector currently employs 12 million people working 23 billion hours annually, producing $2.4 trillion in output. Arc Invest posits that just 5.9 million robots working 16-hour days could match this output, potentially doubling productivity.
The report explores the economic viability of humanoid robots at different price points. At a cost of $116,000 per robot (comparable to an economy car), a mere 5% productivity gain over human workers would make the investment worthwhile. As robot prices increase, so does the required productivity uplift to justify the investment.
Arc Invest's analysis reveals that company size and labor share significantly influence the potential impact of humanoid robots:
Large firms: These companies have more specialized roles and automated processes, resulting in higher productivity. They typically have lower labor costs as a share of revenue but pay higher wages.
Small firms: With less specialization, small companies have a higher proportion of automatable tasks not yet automated. They could benefit disproportionately from generalized humanoid robot solutions.
The report notes that 40% of U.S. manufacturing employees work in small firms (fewer than 500 employees), suggesting a significant opportunity for humanoid robot adoption in this sector.
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains and labor markets. These challenges, including supply chain shocks, onshoring trends, and labor shortages, could accelerate the adoption of humanoid robots in manufacturing. Companies may become less sensitive to the initial costs of robots as they seek to mitigate future disruptions.
These companies are driving innovation in both hardware and AIsoftware, pushing the boundaries of what's possible in robotics.
Conclusion
As we progress through 2024, which the author predicted would be "the year of humanoid robots," the field continues to advance rapidly. The potential economic impact of humanoid robots is vast, with implications for both household and industrial applications. While challenges remain, including cost and technological capabilities, the trajectory suggests a future where humanoid robots could become an integral part of the global economy, reshaping labor markets and productivity across various sectors.
The dude could be very correct, the key will be to be a very early investor... In my opinion this will definitely widen the gap between rich and poor.
Actually that is not the case. Consider how the generational change just in the last 40 years.
in the 1980s, only the wealthy could afford mobile communications. Yet today, people in third world nations have it.
People always mess this situation up by overlooking the standard of living. 90% of the world lives far better than their great grandparents. When something becomes low to no cost, the closing isnt seen because it is no longer monetized.
I hope you're correct, I really could us a humanoid to trim my hedge this weekend...
I am not sure the technology will be ready by this weekend. That might be a bit overaggressive in terms of the prediction.
Lol! A man can dream!
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Here's an in-depth summary of the transcript in article form:
The Future Economy with Humanoid Robots: A Paradigm Shift
In a recent report titled "How Arc is Thinking About Humanoid Robots," investment firm Arc Invest explores the potential economic impact of widespread humanoid robot adoption. This analysis, inspired by Elon Musk's vision of sentient humanoid robots navigating reality and performing tasks on command, paints a picture of a dramatically transformed global economy.
The Scale of the Humanoid Robot Economy
Arc Invest's research suggests that even before reaching human-level capabilities, humanoid robots could generate a staggering $24 trillion in revenue. This economic potential is expected to be split equally between household and manufacturing applications.
In the household sector, the opportunity is calculated based on the current 2.3 hours of unpaid work performed daily by the global working-age population. By attributing half the value of this time to robots, Arc Invest estimates a $12.5 trillion market.
For manufacturing, the report compares current human labor with potential robot labor. The U.S. manufacturing sector currently employs 12 million people working 23 billion hours annually, producing $2.4 trillion in output. Arc Invest posits that just 5.9 million robots working 16-hour days could match this output, potentially doubling productivity.
Economic Viability and Productivity Gains
The report explores the economic viability of humanoid robots at different price points. At a cost of $116,000 per robot (comparable to an economy car), a mere 5% productivity gain over human workers would make the investment worthwhile. As robot prices increase, so does the required productivity uplift to justify the investment.
Company Size and Labor Share Considerations
Arc Invest's analysis reveals that company size and labor share significantly influence the potential impact of humanoid robots:
Large firms: These companies have more specialized roles and automated processes, resulting in higher productivity. They typically have lower labor costs as a share of revenue but pay higher wages.
Small firms: With less specialization, small companies have a higher proportion of automatable tasks not yet automated. They could benefit disproportionately from generalized humanoid robot solutions.
The report notes that 40% of U.S. manufacturing employees work in small firms (fewer than 500 employees), suggesting a significant opportunity for humanoid robot adoption in this sector.
Potential Catalysts for Adoption
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains and labor markets. These challenges, including supply chain shocks, onshoring trends, and labor shortages, could accelerate the adoption of humanoid robots in manufacturing. Companies may become less sensitive to the initial costs of robots as they seek to mitigate future disruptions.
The Current State of Humanoid Robotics
The article mentions several key players in the humanoid robotics field:
These companies are driving innovation in both hardware and AI software, pushing the boundaries of what's possible in robotics.
Conclusion
As we progress through 2024, which the author predicted would be "the year of humanoid robots," the field continues to advance rapidly. The potential economic impact of humanoid robots is vast, with implications for both household and industrial applications. While challenges remain, including cost and technological capabilities, the trajectory suggests a future where humanoid robots could become an integral part of the global economy, reshaping labor markets and productivity across various sectors.