Looking at the numbers of Seeking Alpha, Substack, and Medium, I would say your analysis is off. There are millions who are monetized on those sites. Sure they are web 2.0 but cant deny the success they have.
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Those sites are not hive, we can get into the nuances if you want. There is more to posting on those sites than earning. Most writers, i will argue, care more about exposure than earning b'cause the former brings in the money (long-run)
1/ Certainly they are pre-web3. That said, when you say older crowd, what do you mean. Short form has some younger users but there are a lot of "older" ones too. The Boomers still with us and GenX (in the US) is a long way from dead.
2/ While short form captures a lot of attention, people like Joe Rogan prove how big the market is. He had a 3 hour podcast that people listen to. So the idea that long forn content is dead, I disagree.
I expect that #threads activities will normalize once the campaign is over. I myself fails to share on Twitter the long-form content that I used to share prior to the campaign.
3/ Do people not take it serious on Hive? Certainly we do see the scalping mindset, with many not serious out about. But again, that is a different type of creator.
I do agree with this point. But then again everything starts from that small and slowly rolls into a big thing.
In a small group, the interest rates are not that fluid, therefore free-flow intersection among the users is not apparent.
Threads have increased on-chain rapport. no dont need special skills or ideas to create threads which lower the barrier of entry. Anyone can thread and we will see the positive effect this has on the leofinance ecosystem