Inflation?
We are in a deflationary super cycle. The MZM makes the picture even clearer. We saw 40 years of deficit spending financed by money printing and the velocity of money slowed to a crawl. Yet, miraculously, it is going to pick up?
At that point we will start to see asset prices across the board start to go up as too much money chases too few assets.
So now we change the narrative for assets. The idea was always there was too much money chasing too few goods, services and labor. The last has been also in a multi-decade deflationary cycle, without much hope of reversing anytime soon.
In spite of $23 trillion spent in the 2010s, the inflation rate was minimal, at best (the CPI is a crappy indicator).
The money printing is taking place because we are mired in a deflationary period that is only going to accelerate. Japan and the Eurozone are cooked since they have demographic issues that they cannot reverse. China is rapidly moving in that direction. The US has a bit better chance but there is too much debt out there.
Expect the assets that you mention to suffer a collapse, wiping out that "money" that is sitting out there waiting to inflate.
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I guess we will see won't we. You can't keep printing at this rate without there eventually being inflation. Once you start printing more than the velocity of money is slowing, you get inflation. The only question is whether we are at that point now or not, as you mentioned. I suspect we are very close to it.
The velocity of money is slowing because there is less impact with stimulus.
The formula is GDP/money supply = velocity
There is no way to see inflation until there is a major impact on the economy, which hasnt happened in over a decade. The global economy is simply held back by the onerous burden of all that debt. All the money printing in the world, which only adds more debt, will only eat into GDP at a faster rate.
The US is the only developed economy with a V of 1 or greater (the MSM is right at 1). Everyone else is less than 1.
The Keynesian basis of money printing leads to inflation which will lead to economic growth is done. That was valid into the 1970s but is proven false starting in the early 1980s.
Technology and demographics globally are starting in the way and that is something that central banks cant get around.
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Remember, sometimes things don't work until they do. Specifically meaning that they don't work until "enough" was spent. There is no guarantee that it won't spur economic activity if done at enough scale, and targeted at the right things which is something you are leaving out. Much of the newly created money back in 2008/2009 never made it's way into the broader economy, mostly just sitting on bank's balance sheets, and thus no inflation was felt. This time is different in that much of this money is going out to people and to places that likely eventually makes its way into the broader economy. So indeed, the results may in fact be different this time around. Either way, my opinion is such that I would not be surprised to see inflation start to pick up in late 2021 or early 2022 based on the pandemic spending and subsequent likely economic recovery.
Is there a way to see the change in price over time in a more detailed way? by sector maybe? In other words relative to what have we been in a deflationary cycle for decades? Technology certainly... Speaking for the lower sections of the pyramid though, USD certainly buys far less gas, far less groceries, far less of a house/land, less of a vehicle, less of most of life's necessities than when I entered into adulthood 20 years ago.
Is there a more meaningful indicator of a currencies value?