With all the talk of Elon Musk buying Twitter, some in the cryptocurrency community believe he will turn it into a Web 3.0 application.
In this video I discuss why Web 2.0 cannot become Web 3.0. There are inherent structural problems with their model that makes it impossible.
Therefore, Twitter, even under Musk, will still be a Web 2.0 application.
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This is a topic I bring up a lot.
Definitely a good idea to keep bringing attention to it.
Because all these WEB2 companies keep lying (or are full-on delusional).
Billionaires can't even think on the same wavelength as abundance mindset.
Everything about the legacy system is rooted in scarcity.
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I think the only reason why we are now going to be able to build a life inside a digital world is that we have now figured out how to manufacture scarcity into the system.
I don't think it's coincidental that it's the very first thing we did in crypto.
Bitcoin has 21 million tokens and that's all. Scarce.
Then we used smart contracts to create a way to tokenize and make scarce digital art which a month earlier was worth nothing but is now pushing innovation as people race to try to create more scarce assets.
Web 3 breaks down the second you take scarcity out of the equation.
If Web 3 has another big crash it will probably be because too many people have created too many different scarce assets and that will mean theres so much to choose from that almost nothing will feel scarce and no one will want any of it.
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Value is not derived from scarcity.
Value is CAPTURED by corporations with scarcity.
WEB3 is all about abundance.
Value no longer needs to be captured with scarcity because the community captures all the value automatically with the token. Doesn't matter if that token is "scarce" or not. In fact, money supply must be elastic and variable to have validity, stability, and unit-of-account.
We agree on the last statement. Money need to be elastic, etc. I also agree that value is not derived solely from scarcity. But scarcity is often a driver of demand and therefore value.
Value is only derived from our want or need for something. And if you have any disposable income after the bare minimum of survival, its all about want.
The ore you want something the more value it has. And value is measured in both individuals and groups/cuulturues. What one person highly values another person may reject completely or there could be varying degrees in between.
There are a few things that all cultures value equally and that is status.
And status drives demand for goods, services, and even qualities we want to develop or display.
Corporations have certainly learned how to tap into this in both marketing and in edging each other out wherever possible.
Where I'm stuck on is how web 3 is all about abundance and how tokenization means anything new other than a way to break up the pieces of something to display ownership to the world and unlock liquidity.
Maybe you've written something longer form that I can read to understand what you're saying?
That is because dont understand money, inflation, or the banking system. The idea that scarcity is what adds value is totally turned on its head.
Is data scarce? It keeps doubling every 18 months or so. Yet it keeps going up in value.
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I just find status and scarcity and the economics behind it all to be so interesting because its all so self feeding.
This is an extreme example but I think it plays out in a million tiny ways for us each day. When I was 16 I worked at a mall toy store for the Christmas season. Don't recommend.
That was 1996 and the year the original Tickle Me Elmo came out and the first year the internet was involved in pushing a craze. Tickle Me Elmo was gold.
We got one shipment in while I was there and it sold instantly. Not to parents trying to buy one for their kids of even ebay resellers but to mainly middle aged men with no kids who felt like owning a tickle me elmo in 20 years was going to be their retirement fund.
There was a board in the back office that tracked the highest $USD sales price known in the US for a tickle me elmo. The amount tracked higher every day and a few went for 6 figures by people who thought exactly that. There was more demand than there was supply for this silly toy and that drove even more demand.
Anyway I think we mostly agree. We definitely agree about money supply need to be elastic. I don't think of bitcoin as money though but a store of value for the digital realm.
I made a stupid mistake in my reply though and used the term scarce for capped supply which is something I get annoyed by when others do it but I guess I've been trained.
If you look at the actual definition of scarce as just being more demand than there is supply, data is very scarce even at its current rate of expansion. And scarcity isn't the only driver of demand that's possible but it certainly can feed into itself.
It is interesting for those who research it and I agree, elasticity of money (and collateral) is vital. Most overlook that.
Nevertheless, we are seeing an economy build upon abundance. A lot of the old ideas will go out the window. We are going to see a lot of demonetization, as we already have seen. Yet that doesnt mean that stuff is worthless.
After all a lot of the information we get for free is of extreme value to us.
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I would disagree with the information being free thing.
The direct connection to monetization being severed in some cases I'd agree with but as they say, nothing is free.
I really believe there's a framework of value, scarcity, stauts, and monetization we as humans need to have to move forward and function. It may not be the same one as we had but its still going to be there just because we are human.
It's the same idea as valuing something more that you worked for tan something abundant and free. With automation and AI and the digital infinity it's going to be really interesting to see how it all works out but a framework of value and monetization will remain and I think grow to include things that have never been able to be monetized.
The trends right now are people taking their skills and going into business for themselves. Communities are popping up as the new corporations and while we like to say we're all in this together now, we've formed tribes just like we always do and we all want our tribes to win.
The trend in web3 and digitalization is tokenizing (monetizing) or unlocking the liquidity in things that were once impossible or impractical. Want to pay for your groceries with 1/1000th of your house? You will. Even this discussion about web 3 is now monetized when at one time we would have just annoyed our friends for free. !LOLZ
To reframe was I was saying earlier about our first foray into this being about scarcity, what I could have said was the first thing we did was to use the technology to monetize work and sell it through the idea of scarcity.
The idea of web 3 and the metaverse didn't really take off until we found a way to claim ownership of limited digital assets and make them scarce and exclusive. Everything about crypto and web 3 so far has been about finding new ways to monetize our work and it was not until that happened that we decided a digital future was exciting. And what are we now doing? We're collecting tokens we think will one day be demanded or even needed by others so they'll buy them off of us for more. If we truly believed in abundance, there would be no need to do that.
What has happened in crypto so far other than that? Where does every blockain with publci interest gravitate toward if not a record of ownership and trading of digital assets we hope will one day become scarce (more demand than supply).
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Hard to make a choice on this one to be honest.
Impossible for them to think any other way. After all, they achieved a ton of success in the existing system. They figured it out, at least until the game changes. It is something that they are going to miss since they are mired in the existing one.
And the mindset of most everyone is also at this point. We were reared in it and many have not transitioned away. They still think scarcity.
Even if one pondered the simple core characteristics of the digital world, they would crush that thinking. Look at the increase in computational power, storage, bandwidth, etc.. Put that all together and you have some type of growth rate that far exceeds anything in the physical world. Add in things such as software optimization and open sourcing, and we see how amazingly fast things can be.
But then we are see the mindset of too much money out there (when most are just worthless reserves that the banking industry doesnt even factor in).
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I imagine that somebody like Musk who seeks to colonize the Stars might be able to break out of this mindtrap. It's still very possible that this is a simulation and he's just the best player around.
Sure is, give it another 5-10y and that guy is a trillionaire.
Maybe but I am not sure how clued in he is to all of this. There is no doubt he thinks differently but he is also part of the system. That is what he understands.
Once the deal goes through, we will see what his plans are.
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After reading his first BIO, I was fairly convinced that he's beyond this system by nature. His life decisions even before becoming successful have always been bonkerZ crazy. Now he straight out bought Twitter for 35% over evaluation? That's one hell of a power move.
After stranding in Canada he went to clean industrial chimneys because they paid so well, then he went to study and financed that largely with illegal houseparties, only to become an entrepreneur straight from his student apartment. He even had people working for him while they didn't make any money... imagine those Lion ballZ. You work your ass off, your business doesn't make money and you hire a salesman whom you pay cash to keep em around. What kind of mindset behaves like that?
He even said in an interview this past week if he loses all his money, so what.
The guy is the richest guy in the world, on pace to become a trillionaire, and he doesnt really care about money.
So yeah he is wired differently.
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Really, "So what" that's hilarious!
!
Yeah. I read he once lived in his car in the early days of Tesla because be was basically broke. He blew his PayPal fortune on keeping Tesla going.
Give the guy credit he has Kahunas the side of Texas.
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They whales of the earths are still depending on the web2. So they will not do this faster until they enter through the backdoor and keep their wealth safe. This their plan, in meantime web3 will make some new whales and there will be solid competition among these whales and we should focus on the battle to avoid the damage of the web3 development.
Now or in future web3 is the destiny, no one will put their life earning at risk and with the agnostic inflationary system.
Well not sure Musk is putting his wealth at risk since I am sure he is using the money from someone else.
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Very well, I agree with the fact that Web 2.0 won't transit to 3.0. Apart from the fact that they are entire different structure, to do any kind of proposed transition would be to rebuild the codebase from scratch. And a giant like Facebook can never afford to do that due to the huge amount of users and revenue they get. But really Web 2.0 is still going to be here for a long time because first it has span through years and empires have been built on it. They cannot just all leave and move into another and relatively new entity. What they could do, is just to create or build another startup that could reflect web 3.0. We can see how the metaverse, for example, is making waves now.
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A lot of questions which we dont have the answers. Does Musk have a plan? Time will tell. I agree the transition is not likely to happen.
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Yes, time will be the one to reveal all that need be when it is ripe.
Thanks, sire.
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I've talked about this before on here. Web 3 to me is the new Web 1. It's a do over with new tech and new ideas. It is not a continuation or an evolution.
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That is an interesting way to look at it. We are entering a brand new realm.
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Twitter's business model is different. They may talk about free speech, but does that mean users have control over their data? They will have that over control. And they will use the data to make money through ads and other ways.
They do things to maximize their profits. It is clear that Web 3.0 is the next thing where people move from centralized platforms. Twitter will remain Web 2.0 in disguise of Web 3.0.
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I didn't see any web3 announcements. Seems to me that he finds Twitter to be very entertaining and he's a big believer in "the most probable outcome is the most entertaining". That's why he wants to "heal" it. We'll see how that will end.
Hard to know what he is going to do. I am sure we will find him tweeting out not long after the paperwork is all done.
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You don't really have control of your own data with Web 3.0 either. It's just a different kind of lack of control. Once something is in the blockchain, it doesn't go away even if you want it to.
That is true. We do not and that is the major difference between the two.
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They are a tried and true Web 2.0 platform. Nothing more.
Trying to envision them as something different is delusion. The reality is that Musk has not mentioned turning it into a Web 3.0 app, not that I saw anyway.
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I can't believe they really turned over in the end, annnnd I wonder if he will pull the Devs away from California eventually. My last update was that Twitter HQ will become a big homeless shelter.
He did threaten that didnt he?
I am not sure. Why not have devs work remotely? There is no reason for them to be in an office.
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Yes, he left Cali on very bad terms with the local government. I don't see him leading Twitter into a future with an HQ there, nor should he.
That said he is building a large battery plant there.
So the investment in Cali is still there from Musk and Tesla.
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The protocol to store data is totally different, I would say the opposite.
Web 2.0 and 3.0 will co-exist for a while.
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Certainly they will coexist since Web 2.0 is not going anywhere. It is going to be around. There are certain things that are best on a server based, permissioned system.
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When starting a project we must leave a space for its evolution and leave the firm foundations for that. And as you may know this is not a case which can be adapted to other technologies.
Evolution takes place in all things.
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that is true and we must leave a space for that evolution because otherwise we remain anchored in the past
The business model definitely is a key reason why it is different. Just wondering, would this also apply to anything VC funded as well?
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Yes the VC funding is what set the stage for all of this.
VC lend money with a long term horizon, usually 7 or 8 years. They are very patient, allowing the platforms to build up users. However, at a certain point they want to get paid. Hence the systems need to monetize. That is where the battle between users and the VCs starts.
Of course, the users lose.
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How quickly after the deal closes are people from Twitter going to get fired?
I wonder who will be first. The fact checkers?
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Don't know if it's true but I read somewhere that the employees will be guaranteeed their jobs for six months. Sounds risky to me. Nothing good about doing what is essentially a hostile takeover and having to deal with people that literally wail and gnash teeth at the mention of your name.
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I have no idea. I honestly didnt pay enough attention. As a private company, he will have the freedom to operate as he sees fit.
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Summary:
In this video, the speaker discusses the difference between web 2 and web 3, focusing on the potential acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk. He dispels the notion that Twitter, or any other successful web 2 platform, can transition to web 3 due to their existing business models and revenue structures. The speaker asserts that even if Musk were to buy Twitter, the business model would remain profit-driven, predominantly through advertising, with little room for a complete shift to web 3 principles like tokenization and data ownership. The speaker emphasizes that successful web 2 companies are unlikely to change their business models drastically, as these models have proven to be lucrative over time.
Detailed Analysis:
The video centers around the comparison between web 2 and web 3, with a specific focus on the potential scenario of Elon Musk acquiring Twitter. The speaker firmly establishes the impossibility of transitioning a web 2 platform like Twitter to web 3 due to inherent differences in business structures and revenue streams.
The speaker addresses the idea that even if Musk were to take Twitter private and own 100% of the company, the business model would still be anchored in generating revenues. This aligns with the general trend in successful web 2 companies, like Facebook and Google, relying heavily on advertising as a primary source of income. This revenue model, based on traditional business practices, presents a significant hurdle for these companies to switch to a web 3 paradigm characterized by tokenization and data ownership.
Furthermore, the speaker highlights the importance of profitability in Musk's potential acquisition of Twitter, pointing out that Musk might address issues related to free speech but is unlikely to fundamentally alter the monetization strategies towards a web 3 framework. The emphasis remains on seeking profit, which necessitates a revenue model based on conventional means like advertising, with tokenization through cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin being a relatively insignificant factor.
The speaker concludes by underscoring that endeavors to shift successful web 2 companies towards web 3 or the metaverse are unrealistic and unfeasible due to entrenched business models, particularly for publicly traded firms that cannot afford to jeopardize their revenue streams. The overarching message conveyed is that while web 2 models are sustainable and profitable, they are incompatible with the foundational principles of web 3, emphasizing data ownership and tokenization.
Overall, the video provides a critical analysis of the challenges in transitioning from web 2 to web 3, grounded in practical considerations of business structures, revenue generation, and the profitability motivations that underpin the operations of major internet platforms.