You know something is revolutionary when it has the potential to change everything. It is really driven home when the metrics and standards that previously were used become completely useless.
This is the situation with AI. In fact, the digitization of the world made many things we use to take as a standard for life less impactful.
For example, gross domestic product (GDP) is a tainted metric in the technological period. It does not factor in the price declines due to technology while encompassing the societal benefit.
At present, this is not evident to most. However, once we hit another economic singularity, it will be clear as day.
The same is true for laws. Obviously, when the automobile emerged, the laws applied to horses were no longer valid, at least not for the new technology.
Robert Downey Jr: Clueless About The Disruption That Is Coming
Robert Downey Jr. is going on the offensive.
We can see from this headline that his lawyers are ready to get their keyboards going. Anyone who recreates his likeness will be a target.
“I intend to sue all future executives” who sign off on the creation of a Downey digital replica. The Oscar winner does not want his likeness being used on screen through AI technology and/or deepfakes. The topic came up in relation to Downey’s Marvel tenure as Iron man, but he’s confident Marvel would not recreate his Tony Stark through AI.
This is not going to be the last time we see this. I expect many other celebrities are going to follow suit.
There are two challenges with this.
- It is going to be impossible to sue everyone
Downey Jr. is operating from the premise that he will be able to identify everyone who is doing it. He is still thinking about the entertainment industry as a set of major studios along with some independent firms.
By the end of this decade, that will not be the case. At that time, it is likely that anyone with a smartphone will be able to generate a video production, using his likeness.
In other words, there will be 6 billion people. Will he sue all of them?
- His days are numbers
The other factor, he is rapidly going to become a fossil. By this I mean celebrities are a dying breed. Humans will not be required.
With AI generated entertainment, it is most likely our "stars" of tomorrow will be the same. Nobody is going to care about these celebrities.
This is not without precedent. In fact, we have decades that show this to be true.
Let us look at Mickey Mouse. This was probably Disney's most successful character. Of course, Mickey does not exist.
The world of animation never transcended into the real world for obvious reasons. However, this all changes when the characters are not animated.
Many will say this is never going to happen. Naturally, the word "never" is espoused quite frequently when it comes to new technologies.
Technological Luddites
The Luddites are the poster children for the "anti-tech" movement. It is a word tossed around a lot yet typically doesn't apply to the masses.
Sure, there are some who fight technology because their livelihoods are at risk. This is actually going to be an expanding number.
That said, most of society are not Luddites. They simply are averse to technological change (many are to change in general) while also not understanding it.
Here is an example:
A couple decades ago, many were claiming they would "never give their credit card online". As we see here today, how many kept that promise. Do we see the number of online transactions each year? Those are not settled in cash.
The ones making that statement were not necessarily Luddites. Instead, they were simply unaware of how things would evolve. To be fair, in 1999, it might have been crazy to put your credit card on many websites.
To presume something is not going to happen simply because we are looking at the world based upon present knowledge (or conditioning) is misguided.
Another example is one of ownership. This is an area of dispute for many valid reasons. However, when it comes to something like music, do people really care if they "own" a song. A few decades ago, people purchased recorded music. It was on something they could hold, pass around, and had to store.
Today, pay Spotify $10 per month and be done with it.
The point here is that perspectives change, especially as technology advances. To think that our "celebrities" will always be human is a mistake. Here is where Downey Jr. is being presumptive.
Will anyone want his likeness in the future? Will be even be a topic of discussion in a decade.
We know the "out of sight, out of mind" is especially true for celebrities. As the Internet transitions, who is going to be watching what these people are doing?
Hollywood Destruction
I write a great deal about Web 3.0 and the demise of Hollywood for a reason.
This is a technological story. It has enormous impact simply due to the fact that entertainment is so large. To overlook something of this magnitude crashing before our eyes is stunning.
To me, the fact this is happening might not be clear to many of those involved in Hollywood. We dive into the media and how the landscape is shifting underneath them. The tentacles of this are hard to fathom.
With technology, there is the impact upon society that also should be considered. There is no doubt that Hollywood certainly had that. The question is what will they have going forward?
The media is fragmenting. Eyeballs are being distributed into many newer directions. More content is being generated on a daily basis, all of this filling the pipeline of options people have.
What this means is the present rules, standards, and actions are bound to change. The key is the rate things are happening.
Those who realize the trend has a chance to position him or herself. What is crucial is seeing the entire picture (or as much as possible) and not simply a sliver of it. To me, Downey Jr. is only looking at a smaller piece to the puzzle.
For this reason, he is going to be caught off guard by what truly takes place.
It is common and something we all should work hard to avoid. This is the fastest moving technological era we ever saw. Things will be vastly different in 5 years.
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I don't doubt that AI is going to be disruptive. However, I don't see it completely replacing actors. I can see that happening in commercials, maybe for extras (maybe not since extras are cheap), and even for certain scenes in movies. I just don't see it happening entirely just like I don't see that happening with other art forms. Might as well say that people are going to start falling in love and marrying AIs. While I don't doubt that will happen too, i don't see it becoming the norm.
You have to keep in mind, to most, the people we are talking about (actors, celebrities) are two dimensional figures. Unless you see them live, they exist on a screen.
At the same time, Hollywood killed off the movie star. Most of the hits, over the last decade, were not the actor but the character. With the superhero genre, that is what got the attention.
My view is the concept is too foreign for people to accept now but, in the future, will become normal.
To me, Robert Downey Jr. IS Iron Man. Can't see someone else in that role. I know they have swapped out some actors (notably Spider-Man) but people still have their favorite actor for that role. And it isn't anything new. Look at James Bond (Roger Moore is my personal favorite but I will concede that Sean Connery was the best).
I attend MegaCon every year in Orlando and if attendance and what people are willing to pay for a photo-op are any indication (both skyrocketing over recent years), movie stars and other celebrities are still as popular as ever. Trust me when I say Tom Hiddleston (for example) and not just Loki is very popular.
I think there is a psychological aspect too. I think people will have a hard time identifying with characters they know to be AI. Also, even if AI gets very very close, if it doesn't nail it 100%, there's going to be sort of a subtle Uncanny Valley effect.
I mean I get what you are saying, I'm just not convinced AI characters are going to be as good or as desirable for an audience as real actors. At least not in the near future. I think it will get 99% of the way there pretty quickly but that last 1% is going to be a killer and it will make all the difference.
I am surprised someone like Downey is keeping is eyes from AI. If actually he played that Iron man part he should have learnt a lot in the process.
I don't think Robert Downey Jr. is the best actor out there, but nevertheless he is human and I would say he is working very hard as an actor. That 'celebrity' tag is something society gave him and he must carry it whether he wants it or not (if he wants to continue to be actor off course).
Not only AI will disrupt jobs it will disrupt the way we live on this planet completely. It doesn't even matter if we don't want it to happen, this kind of economy we have today will force it happen.
No, you are clueless. Robert Downey Jr. is doing the right thing. AI companies are already losing in court. AI is already hitting a brick wall, a plateau with what it can do. Their only answer is to throw more data and more computing power at it, which thus becomes more expensive to run, and thus diminishing returns on investment. Investors are already getting nervous because they are not seeing the returns promised to them. AI is simply the latest Tech bubble... little substance and a great deal of talk.
It will have it's applications, disrupt some industries, but it will not take over the world. The results are meh... because the AI output is the sum average of all of it's input.