Screw the bears

There are so many things going on in crypto, I am quite happy to admit that I have no idea of more than a fraction of them. Every time I post someone is talking about some other opportunity, but the sad reality for me is that I just don't have the bandwidth to stay abreast of it all. It is more than a fulltime job, and I already have two of those, plus writing on Hive, so I have made the decision to do what I can, and miss a lot.

I was talking to my wife about our future today and how my plan is to create a "working foundation" this year to keep building upon and to bring in additional income streams, without having to sell anything. We tried to work out what our monthly needs were and factor in the uncertainty of the job markets etc, even hough we are both going to keep working for the foreseeable future.

My wife asked again today,

"what if it all goes down?".

I didn't try to explain anything today at all, just said,

then we will be exactly where we are at the moment.

Since we haven't used any, it hasn't affected our lifestyle in any way, other than the time it takes me to write and interact on Hive, which is what I have been doing for a long time anyway, even when it was earning me sweet FA for a very long time.

Back in 2017/18, there were a lot of people who during the bullmarket declared "I am going to live off crypto" without thinking what that was going to mean in the bear, with many of them returning to work, if they could get it. The problem with living off anything is that the amount has to be large enough to keep biting into for an extended period of time, or it has to offer a return on the principle, like interest paid, where it is the interest that is lived off.

Many didn't seem to think through this that much and thought that they could live off their Steem Hive earnings into the future, not foreseeing that the bear was not only going to be very deep in comparison to the highs, but also protracted for years. I can't imagine many surviving the bear on blogging earnings.

However, this isn't 2017/18 - a time that had a lot of Ethereum hype around it because of the ERC20 boom, which is now seeing some issues as unfortunately, those tokens are super expensive to move now. Perhaps if Eth2 had arrived earlier, things would look different for them. Luckily though, there is the potential to stake through DeFi, which has given Ethereum a lot of attention for this bullrun too - great timing.

But with DeFi, comes what didn't exist much in 2017/18, the ability to earn on token staking, even with stable coins. This completely changes the landscape of crypto going forward, as even if/when Bitcoin hits its peak ATH for this cycle and then falls back, people will be able to fallback into stables, without having to exit crypto at all. Not only that, they can park it into DeFi projects to earn upon, which will allow for people to earn through the bear.

Will there be a bear?

Of course there will - but because the industry has matured to the point there are on-blockchain options to invest, I don't think it is going to look like previous bears and because of this, I don't think it is going to drop back as far as it used to and many are expecting of it. Not only are there the pool liquidity pool options, the new buyers are institutions and corporations who are also going to be exploring the usage of stables. Yes, they might pull out of Bitcoin, but they still don't want to go all the way back to fiat.

In my unlicensed and amateur opinion, we are not only in unprecedented waters in regard to the value of the market, we have never been in this position in regards to the maturity of the industry. Comparing the bullrun to the bullruns of the past is probably going to mean a lot of people are going to be selling their tokens short - comparing the coming bear to the previous bears will likely overestimate the depth it will fall to.

I think that Bitcoin is going to be looking to push to a new much higher high in the not too distant future and just think, even if it retraces 30% (as it is prone to do), it will still be sitting at 42,000 dollars. It is quite incredible. When it does fall, the DeFi pools will be affected, but many people will be using the move to more heavily buy into tokens that can offer them a return on investment and income on their holdings, while they wait for a point they are willing to buy back in to Bitcoin, or other tokens.

As said, for me, my goal is to be able to earn significant streams during the bear market, to mitigate my exposure to various kinds of IRL risks, including job security. But, I also want to have the opportunity available to take advantage of dips when they arrive and the pools give me this possibility. On top of this, it is possible (and I hope) that I will still be able to earn through my activity on Hive to increase my stake here. Bear or not - I am bullish.

While things are pumping all over the place and some crazy gains are being made, it is good to remember that it is cyclical and things will come to an end and the slide back will begin. I don't know when that will be, but it doesn't seem that close at the moment, so this is the time to work so that when the sun isn't shining, it is still possible to be positive in the future, as one knows that they aren't left with nothing.

For example, currently the price feed of Hive is 36 cents and my full vote is around 3.60. This means that is it retraces 66%, I will still have a vote of 1 dollar, which would bring me 150 dollars in curation a month. That isn't much in the country I live, but it also isn't nothing, as it could be stretched to a week of careful groceries. That is significant, under certain conditions.

At the moment, I am working two jobs with very little to show for it, as everything gets poured into the house for renovation costs, but in six months, the majority of that will be finished. This means that my two jobs will create an excess. This I can use to start building a traditional investment portfolio so that during the bear, there will be a little bit more available to use.

As someone that has spent the majority of life struggling financially, it is strange to get the sense that not too far into the future, I might be in the position where there are streams of income coming in. During a bull market like now, it is hard to even keep track of all that is going on with my holdings, as so much is happening on all of the blockchains and projects. I don't know about you, but for me it is stressful generating wealth.

It is also fucking exciting!

It isn't just the wealth, it is the entire scene, the participation in what I and likely some of the people reading this, see as a revolution at a global level, and it is only just beginning. I know many people who think they can handle stress, but not many who are able to operate like this day in and day out for years.

Crypto people are breed of their own.

A lot of these investments are likely to crash and burn, in a similar way that the dotcom era saw companies with billions behind them, collapse into a sea of nothing. But, some will survive and spawn new projects and give the space a decade, and the value it holds is going to make this bullrun a blip on the charts of history. We are part of that blip today, making us part of the history of the future.

A decade from now I hope I am still here writing often, chatting with some of my friends I have known for years, talking about all of the projects that we have been part of supporting, from their startup phase to their unicorn status and the latest and coming projects that might be worth getting behind. I think by that time, I will probably have to get rid of at least one of my jobs.

Though I hope to be working harder than ever.

Through all the bulls, screw the bears.

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]