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There is no scarcity on day one.
Scarcity builds up over time.
Not enough time has passed right when the halving happens,
which is why we see these speculative pump/dumps that try to price in the halving fail every single time.

Also yes, miner capitulation is also a thing.
Miners sell all their Bitcoin to pay the power bill.
However, because the value of Bitcoin is already so oversold, who knows what will happen.
It's very possible a pump will happen because the lockdown delayed it.

Ah yeah, I meant that the perception of scarcity - it becomes twice as hard to get etc.

Thanks. I don't know much about Bitcoin other than - I don't have enough - Unless it hits 3 million dollars! ;D

I'm glad your Hive account has gotten back to a $50k value...
I remember when I used to covet your holdings :D

Do not covet thy neighbors wife...

Married to crypto ;D

yeah but does your actual wife ride this batshit roller coaster as well? Does she know your account just went from 10k to 80k? lol.

I told her - "but you aren't going to use it anyway, so it is meaningless" ;D

Quite right... if the halving rolls around and all of a sudden everyone realizes "holy shit the halving is here and Bitcoin is way oversold" it will pump no matter what the fundamentals are.