Why CUB got hammered

in LeoFinance4 years ago

Hi All,

here are just my 2 cents about the recent development of LEO, CUB and this frontend, just from an outsider´s perspective. Or rather more or less outsider, I own app. 26K LEO (most of it in wLEO pool) and app. 2300 CUB, but I rather rarely post financial content. Seems not as appreciated as my other content, maybe for good reasons or just language reasons (I post mainky in German), I can´t judge. Also I am not a crypto expert (but who is), anyway.

From a first glance it seems the scene here is dominated by a few large stakeholders who regularly grab most of the LEO post rewards but also to a very large extent deserve it due to professional and well delivered content (which however is kind of repetitive) plus a lot of newbies who try to get a small piece of the cake but often fail to produce any meaningful content. There is little in between those extremes, which doesn´t feel like a healthy mix.

The good thing: All the boring CUB and LEO shilling posts are gone.
As you are aware, when the bull market was intact, it was all about how great and awesome everything about LEO is. Maybe I was the only one annoyed by this.
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This has with the beginning(?) of the bear market faded away and now one sees in the trending pages a more diverse content, more suitable for readers outside of the Hive/LEO bubble, so this is a good development, definitely.

But now coming back to the title, I think the main reason is that the communication & strategy of the @leofinance team was not that fortunate in the last months/weeks. Don´t get me wrong, the team has done a fantastic job in getting out all that stuff so far and created tons of value for the whole Hive ecosystem - no doubt about this. Just that many (too many) things were promised and hyped and not all then was delivered.

  • The microblogging site which probably would be the most important project for user growth was deprioritized. A pity because growth is more key than anything else. The more users and share of voice you have, the more people will later use the Defi tools offered.

  • Leobridge, even if truly innovative and for sure a heck of a technically challenging project, finally arrived after so many announcements, but who actually uses it? IMHO this could have been done at a later, more mature stage.

  • The long awaited Kingdoms were finally launched, but for my taste too buggy and not really ready. For instance why started only with CAKE and BNB/BUSD? Did Cubdefi want to make advertisment for Pancakeswap? Why not start with auto-CUBbing? Even worse, if you click "get CAKE", you are redirected not to the Cubdefi exchange page, but to https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/ - just an oversight? Also the APR was shown wrongly, this was fixed in the meantime. There were some people mentioning that the frontend showed also a wrong number of token balance. All in all not the type of quality we are all used from the devs.

But the kingdoms didn´t contribute to the deterioration of the LEO and CUB price, they were just not able to stop it either. Sure, it is kind of unfair to expect such since everything went down.

But CUB was hit harder than similar tokens. It is down from app. 4$ to 0,75$ almost in a straight line with hardly any resistance and also the volume went down significantly.
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So what needs to happen to revert this trend? I don´t know. But for sure @leofinance needs to get better on their way of communication. Maybe less jokes with announcements of announcements (sorry, it is not funny anymore) and not only relying on AMA sessions on Zoom like lately (there are people who don´t have the time to wait for 45min to check for bits of new information). What about weekly updates in writing with a few bullets about facts and estimated milestones dates and less "very soon" statements?

Potential investors will make the team accountable on what they deliver in comparison to what is promised. Is it a contest of who promises more? Maybe, but the market says otherwise and the market is always right.

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I think it's quite clear why CUB went down as fast as it did. Its rate of inflation is much faster than its rate of adoption has been. The overall bull market kept all kinds of coins afloat because speculators were buying them. Now that the continuation of the bull market is in question, mere speculation is hardly enough to keep coins like CUB from sinking.

Simply put, there is not enough utility in holding CUB relative to how easy it is to earn it.

The only exchange pairs it makes financial sense to provide liquidity to under the current market conditions are the stablecoin pairs. And even then, the 2% deposit fee means that you must be prepared to provide liquidity for a minimum of about three weeks - at the current price level - to strike even and make profit.

The main problem with CUB is that it has no proper sinks. CubDefi is on Binance Smart Chain and every transaction must be paid for with BNB. Only depositing in some Dens and Farms costs CUB but the financial sense in doing so depends on other depositors that come after you paying their fees to give it value - and speculators holding the coin in expectation of some yet unknown future utility and growth of user base.

I also agree with you on that the microblogging app should've been prioritized. Crypto-microblogging is a big thing and censorship is annoying. There is a niche for content creators who are bothered by censorship and who like crypto rewards for their content creation. LeoFinance has very good curators who do a good job keeping crap from being rewarded and attaining much visibility. The work done by curators and content creators creates genuine non-speculative value. CubDefi is like the dark side in Star Wars, potentially faster and easier but more treacherous a way to make money.

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Therefore the only real winner is BNB.

BNB gets spent anytime anyone transacts on BSC. During the California gold rush of 1848, the merchants who sold equipment to the miners made a killing.

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Good to see someone say what needed to be said.

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I still got not into CUB defi, because I somehow had a bad feeling in my stomach. You gave my intuition a voice by listing all the con's of CUB.

It is still somehow appealing to me ;)

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What an excellent opinion post! Actually, something similar was brewing in my mind as well, but it seems like you beat me to it.

Exactly what I was thinking regarding communication. While the new developments of the LeoFinance team may be spectacular, especially at the rate they are pumping them out, I believe the way their releases are communicated (or not) is completely counterproductive: Nobody was missing kingdoms until it was announced. The word "soon" is like "mañana", it is ambiguous, doesn't mean anything, and only causes frustration. Had they announced "within two months" or something equally distant, nobody could have gotten impatient. Also, once the long awaited release happens, the last thing you want is a buggy result with reduced features.

As for the CUB inflation - burn ratio, these things can be fixed. But to see how to tweak things most ideally you need some time to observe and analyze how things work in practice. If, or how well LeoFinance does this, I cannot know, I can only assume they would pay attention to right from the start. So this I'm not too worried about. Still, I believe anyone venturing into the CubDeFi would appreciate short, regular updates on how exactly things will be optimized.

Finally, I greatly agree on what you said about the micro blogging app. Though I admit, I can see how it would just exacerbate the circle-jerk, at the same time it would bring in a whole wave of people primarily interested in uncensored tweeting... who later on might get curious about DeFi too. And once that happens, the shilling of CUB outside the LeoFinance blog could keep getting outsiders interested. So postponing Project Blank into the distant future made no sense to me at all.

Just like you, I've got a bit of money in LEO and CUB, but more importantly, I believe in the team and I'm certain they'll keep coming up with more awesome things. Still, I believe focusing on better communication is essential. Maybe it would be good to have one person focus entirely on it, maybe even hiring a PR guy could be of benefit. I remember Splinterlands had a similar point in their early history, when users were getting grumbly about to knowing what devs were up to... until this PR lady came along and told everyone to calm the fuck down.

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Wow you hit a nerve here.

The number of responses to you strongly worded post are impressive.

I think strong loyalty and support for Leofinance is evident here, and strong support of the project brings out strong emotion.

Leofinance is an impressive project, and growing rapidly, as such it will have growing pains.

I have faith that Khal will respond and try to make things better.

I will personally try to write short summaries of the AMAs and continue to provide explanatory posts.

I am not an insider here, nor an expert, but feel I have a good understanding of DeFi, and I have been here on Steemleo and now Leofinance since the beginning.

So I will pitch where I have knowledge to help new and old members with these new technologies.

😊

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Because CUB is built on pancakeswap, it is difficult to offer more value. Higher apr is not everything. Also, I think pancake profits way more than cub.

IMO CUB could handle BSC/ETH transactions for Hive. As a swap exchange. It would offer value to Hive, generate fees, burn cub.

Sure it's not a classic defi thing, but an add-on that brings value in. Easy Deposit from Hive to BSC and vise versa. Would be Amazing IMO, special with smart contracts at some point and a lot of backed other cryptos on Hive.

Another thing I would like to see is an official step-by-step guide ( or infographic) on how everything works. For newbies. + Dates about the Token Burns, they look so random to me.

What I can see, that could add a lot of value is contract highjacking. Looking for the best and highest APR contracts on BSC and add them to CUB. Low multiplier for cub token like 0,5, as a little extra.

Everytime something new pop up, like Auto ( remember from 70$ to 10k$) Cub user can ape in, if they want.

Newer projects start most time with 10 000% first days. Cub could the place to farm this stuff first hand.

Would need some good research + mark from "super high risk" to lower risk.

For example some pancake swap thing has maybe lower risk as a new defi pop up :)

Why do I think this could work? because of the synergy Leo and CUB have together. Would be also super interesting for people that are not already here.

Because Yield farming is a short-term thing, people would go from one to the newer one. Generate fees, Burn Cub. A service that adds value to the system. And nobody cares about a new DEFI that offers 10k% APY to pay some fees ( 2%-4%) :D

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lots of good ideas here!

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Nice analysis - although maybe the reason for the decline in the Cub price is simpler - besides 1A most of those next level repetitive leo shill posters were always looking to use Cub as an offramp for their Leo that had done a 10 times since they bought/ earned it.

It's not actually inconsistent - shilling and then pulling out at the top.

I mean I sold 25% of my LEO stake near the top, man am I ever glad I did!

I don't think the microblogging site is going to solve anything - can you imagine how shilly that's going to be, or would have been? It'll be awful. I had that on the cards as 'dumping to near zero hard'.

Be interesting to see where Cub/ Leo goes from here - from my perspective it's not total carnage (it's another several grand sitting in stables) - but I know some people got hit pretty hard.

Ouch!

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Also here's something I want to point about cub. For most hivians and lions this has been literally their first defi project ever. And thanks to it they tested their hands with other defis. And a source of free money, due to airdrop/farming or both. Even if prices goes ever lower... Can we complain about free money?

Imo it's a success anyways you see it.

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Agree on this. Thanks to BSC, Cub is the first real defi AMM that most plebs are trying. And I love the idea that "we" (our little Hive/Leo Finance gang) can have it's own secure, reliable, and tokenomics-friendly AMM.

Crypto is about democratizing, and I don't feel that I share anything with some etherean that bought ETH at $8, got an extra airdrop of 400 UNIs and now stakes $750K on a UNI pool paying $350 fees.

So at the end the word "tribe" used in this blockchain is very much appropiate for every project. Im in here, this is my tribe, and CUB my go-to place to swap and stake to make some extra income.

This said, agree on the AMAs and videos. Some of us are really busy in RL, please some once-a-week bullet points update and I will happily vote with my 100% which, sadly, is peanuts. Heh.

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100%

CUB was my first experience with DeFi and I still believe in its potential.

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As a non-expert, I think you just made a range of experts look like non-experts ;).

I completely agree with you on the AMA, for instance. Surely someone could create a written summary of it weekly as a blog post for the LeoFinance crowd?

I may be one of those in-between users I suppose. I'm a mid-sized holder, I post occasionally (to what I believe is decent quality), and I often lack the time to engage completely on the platform, but am happy enough with it to visit it daily :).

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CUB Prints fast and constantly so unless you're burning more CUB in fees than what is being produced you're going to constantly have a downward spiral. I also feel with the introduction of bLEO that many people took their LEO and converted it out into BNB or some other crypto which also dragged the price of LEO down. It was like an exit front for some people that drained instead of built up.

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You sure have a point here.

I am still waiting that the 1st tag issue is solved on @leofinance as pointed out by @themarkymark

https://leofinance.io/@themarkymark/some-suggestions-for-leofinance

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Very well said. I think you've hit the nail on the head on all counts.

I also think there is a lack of awareness of what the wider community wants outside of the few large stakeholders and Discord crowd.

LEO is one of only 2 coins I've bought and made a loss on. Fortunately I didn't buy too many. The Defi space is moving so fast I'm not sure what makes CUB stand out as offering anything different and the user base is tiny compared with other platforms.

I'm in the DEC/BUSD farm and have no idea what I should do with that now. My fault as I don't have the knowledge to make the best decision. From the last AMA it sounds like the DEC farm won't be turned into a Kingdom but I'm not totally clear on that.

So for now I'm just sticking my head in the sand and hoping for the best. 😂

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You can use this table to calculate your DEC/BUSD LP value in $ and you will know if you loss some $ or not

https://leofinance.io/@sodomlv/how-to-calculate-lp-value-in-usd-when-you-stake

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Thanks for the link. I've just done some calculations using this https://howmuchismylp.com/. Hopefully I calculated correctly. 😊

!ENGAGE 10

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Thank you for your engagement on this post, you have recieved ENGAGE tokens.

I also have money in the DEC/BUSD farm. The good news is that I don't think it will actually lose value - even if CUB isn't worth much, at least we will still get the 0.17% transaction fees. I'm planning to leave it in at least until DEC gets back to its peg, and then we'll see.

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The good news is that I don't think it will actually lose value

So do you have any idea what the other person meant when they said if the APR went below 100% we'd be losing money and would be better off just hodling it?

!ENGAGE 20

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Can you point me to that comment? APR below 100% should just mean that you don't double your money in a year. APR in traditional finance is usually single digits, so like w/ a 5% APR you end up w/ $105 on your $100 investment after a year. Not amazing, but you're not losing money.

As far as I know, the only way we can lose money in the DEC/BUSD pool is if DEC loses value, BUSD loses value, CUB Finance is hacked/rug pulled, Pancake Swap is hacked/rug pulled, or Binance is hacked/rug pulled. So actually a lot of ways, but decrease in CUB value alone should just decrease the return, not decrease your investment.

Thanks for responding.

Can you point me to that comment?

I'll try and find it and get back to you . . .

the only way we can lose money in the DEC/BUSD pool is if DEC loses value, BUSD loses value,

isn't that what has happened?

!ENGAGE 30

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Thank you for your engagement on this post, you have recieved ENGAGE tokens.

The lack of advertising is a problem for sure but I don't think it is the biggest problem. The math just doesn't seem to work for any of the Goose Finance clones when new money doesn't enter the system.

Fees and burns won't solve it. For simplicity, let's assume you're in a non-cub den. You generate 100 cub a day. You want to re-invest, so you dump the 100 cub for whatever token and re-invest 98 cub after the fee.

That 2% tax just doesn't cover the amount of cubs being printed. LeoBridge might alleviate some of the problem but I'm not sure how Kingdoms will help with this.

Till the leak gets plugged, it's hard to see Cub prices going back up. Keeping my fingers crossed, though.

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Cub is dropping to the whole market dropping.
There is no way around that.
So far it is holding in a thin line.
We will see how June treat Cub.

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Totally agree with all your points. I want to put my money in CUB defi and i really want to know if there is any force to prevent CUB sinking.

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The Leofinance team are doing great, probably too much they are dealing at the moment but I am hopeful they are capable of handling the demands and this post could also help in taking care of areas lacking as mentioned in your post.

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Very good analysis. I would also add that Cub Discord is even a bigger joke.

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Well, people were also very impatient and although the development of kingdoms is something that takes time, because the leofinance team was rushing, they had the opposite effect.

And I totally agree with you about adapting to people's needs, because if instead of launching cub bridge or kingdoms, they had put microblogging first, as you say, the situation would have been very different, since many people would have joined and that would have meant more cub buyers and more money bet on the farms. Which means a higher and higher cub price.

These are mistakes that are learned, I know that this will result in a more mature and stronger community in the future.

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💥Boom !💥

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are aware, when the bull market was intact, it was all about how great and awesome everything about LEO is. Maybe I was the only one annoyed by this.

Ticks me off too


Your post was promoted by @amr008

Thanks to BSC, Cub is the first real defi AMM that most plebs are trying. CUB my go-to place to swap and stake to make some extra income.

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"plus a lot of newbies who try to get a small piece of the cake but often fail to produce any meaningful content." That exactly is where I see myself. Would love to see something for smallfolk!

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The Leofinance team are doing great, probably too much they are dealing at the moment but I am hopeful they are capable of handling the demands and this post could also help in taking care of areas lacking as mentioned in your post.Very good analysis

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Is it a contest of who promises more?

At this point I think it may be that. There were a ton of people just chasing APRs recently though I am not sure how many of them showed up at CUB.

All the stuff about development and outreach are definitely true. It's something that needs to change going forward and releasing really buggy things isn't the best way to approach things.

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Good points there, let's see where the CUB goes once the bull market returns. We can always improve.

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Fair points except:

But the kingdoms didn´t contribute to the deterioration of the LEO and CUB price, they were just not able to stop it either.

Well let's give it a couple days first 😂

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