"The door of the public chain has been welded to death." I think of what Spencer said in the second half of 19, and now that one year has passed, what is the current situation of the public chain.
There are only a handful of new public chains coming out after 2020, Polkadot counts one, Serum counts one, and there should be no other large public chains. With the addition of Cosmos and the upcoming Near, the four major public chains surrounding Ethereum in the new era are finalized.
The first three public chains have more or less problems. From the perspective of valuation, it is the most realistic. Polkadot's launch is quite similar to Cosmos. The high valuation opens, allowing private equity investors to make a lot of money, and the space for players in the secondary market as a price is compressed.
Near is currently in the first stage, with the voter turnout rate reaching 35%. After reaching 70%, the second stage can be opened. At that time, the token transfer function will be activated and the exchange will be launched one after another.
In fact, I prefer to position Near as Tezos. I bought Near’s relatively low valuation and replaced Tezos as the second-generation Ethereum killer. I don't want to place high expectations on Near, and I can really get how much migrated ecology from Ethereum. After so many years, it seems that there is no new public chain successfully migrated.
This is the most pessimistic idea. Even if Near fails to migrate the Ethereum ecosystem in the end, if the valuation is reasonable, you can still simply buy the valuation. After all, the big mountain in front of Polkadot raises the overall valuation of the Ethereum killer. From this perspective, I hope Polkadot remains at its current valuation.
A year ago, many people had such an illusion that Tezos could obtain a certain share of the Ethereum ecology. One year later, the Tezos ecology stagnated, and the stablecoin infrastructure and expansion plans were basically not implemented. At that time, the wave of players who correctly positioned Tezos as the first generation of Ethereum killer valuation to see EOS was a cool seller.
We admit that Near has the most advanced sharding technology, the most elegant technical architecture, the most friendly relationship with the Ethereum ecosystem, and the halo blessings of top institutions, but we still have to make the most pessimistic plan for this, and on the other hand you have to do it An optimistic bet.
The future is still bright, the right ones are always pessimists, and the ones who make money are always optimists. Therefore, I have hope for the future development of Near.
This is just a piece of gossip. In August, I wrote an article on the public chain about the viewpoint of public chain bridging. Recently, after recollecting, the views are bold and avant-garde, but the reality of the currency circle is ultimately bone-feel. The general trend of the Ethereum DEX ecology has been set, and layer2 led by Optimistic and Rollup will soon be put into actual production to verify the authenticity and whether there is still the need for public chain bridging.
Years of frustration in the currency circle have made me not dare to have unrealistic illusions. The most realistic strategy is to buy the valuation and then sell the valuation. Do the business of valuation, not the dream of faith.