When In Doubt... Accumulate

Mixed Signals

Currently, there seems to be a significant amount of uncertainty taking place in the market. Some are beginning to shift bearish and exchange owners such as CZ are busy sending out cautionary messages on Twitter. I personally would not read that as a bearish sign, though I am sure many would. HIVE recently peaked well over $3 and briefly touched a billion-dollar market cap.

There are a number of other alts that have also performed really well in a time when BTC and ETH have given up some ground. Earlier in the week, we had BTC perform a much-needed reversal from the $54K level. This took place as two distinct patterns came to fruition. Firstly, a double bottom on the hourly that lead into an inverted head and shoulders that actually played out perfectly.

BTC was just at the neckline of a double bottom pattern on the 4 hourly when the markets sold off on the new covid variant news. Perhaps another day would have been enough to break the neckline. Sadly, we will never know. The point here is that BTC formed three bullish patterns successfully and would have most likely confirmed all three, had it not been for the mini swan event.

Despite the fear and greed index sitting firmly in fear, as well as some negative sentiment, I still believe we are in bullish territory. Excessive fear could however trigger further sell-offs. The volume may be low at these levels but drop below and the whales will most likely pick up the slack. Whales have continued to accumulate during this recent dip and have collectively secured billions in BTC from the weak and paper hands.

The following chart supplied by Glassnode and pointed out by on-chain analyst Willy Woo looks very encouraging.

It points to a reversal into significant bullish territory and has been a fairly reliable indicator throughout this cycle.

Accuracy Of Models

Models should not be viewed in exact time parameters but rather over extended time frames. For example, if Plan B's monthly close for November fails but the prediction for January or February is met, it is still valid in my opinion. Price action deviates and returns but over time is accurate. Nobody can predict exact monthly closes, there are too many factors and variables outside of our control, in order to ensure accuracy.

That being said, if you are a long-term investor and participant in the Crypto economy then you are not too fazed even if we had to shift bearish. It's always a good time to cleanse the market of greed anyway.

So whether we go up or down, steady accumulation is the name of the game.

Disclaimer

First of all, I am not a financial advisor. All information provided on this website is strictly my own opinion and not financial advice. I do make use of affiliate links. Purchasing or interacting with any third-party company could result in me receiving a commission. In some instances, utilizing an affiliate link can also result in a bonus or discount.

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