Hmmm. If I have to be honest and this is just my own opinion anyway. The last time bitcoin was mooning it hits 41k ATH, and the whales walk into the park and cashed out their btc. Subsequently, causing the price to fall under 30k. It got stuck there for some time then slowly reaching the 40k mark again. Don't you think this is just a repeat of what had happened? Don't take it from me, I'm a simple guy, I work that way. Just be aware that if you buy, there are plenty of chances that it could dip again. Just my opinion. Either way, do whatever floats your boat. This is not a piece of advice, just an opinion from a simple guy. Enjoy the mooning period guys!
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Hey Luke, thanks for the question.
If you think about it, if markets behaved like that they would never move in any direction ie every time it got to 41K it would sell off, and every time it got to 30K it would rally.
This does happen semi-regularly, it's called ranging, but ranges eventually break one way or the other.
Trading/analysis is about assessing what potential outcome has the highest probability of occurring and, if that outcome also would yield an acceptable amount of profit vs the potential loss, acting on that assessment.
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Thanks for answering my question buddy. Really appreciate it.
Taking in the analysis and any possible outcome point of view, I know it would be the best possible prediction that it would hit 50k mark in price.
My follow up question if you don't mind. Looking at faith could actually affect the market, the question is how much of it could affect the price of bitcoin/altcoins?
I'm interested in this because in stock market "faith" could be overturned and causing mass depression which we could see in the past. There are enough pain caused by FOMO in the market that It will be very difficult to believe anything that looks like a pump and dump scheme.
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You're most welcome.
This is an interesting questions as in prior cycles pretty much the only driver was sentiment / faith / hype / mania.
This cycle we have a clear shift in market fundamentals ie just 2 million BTC on exchange, just 4 million in weak hands (including the first 2 mentioned I think?), institutions actually buying instead of just rumours, more active wallets than there will ever be bitcoin.
That side of things isn't really my strong suit, but I'd warrant with these new drivers combined with the longstanding undying faith, we'll be able to put in a comparable cycle.
You may have seen this video from the microstrategy conference, but if not, well worth a watch - either the whole thing or especially the last 20m - https://leofinance.io/@rollandthomas/microstrategy-s-bitcoin-summit-day-1
(via @rollandthomas)
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Oh, much appreciated there buddy! I'll take a look at the microstrategy. As always keep on writing and thanks for your time.
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BTC has topped IMO
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Care to elaborate?
You may well be right - I'm surprised by extent of recent weakness - but it would be an anomaly looking at previous cycles.
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