Wondering how in the world BTC gets to $100k? Here's how...

in LeoFinance4 years ago

Bitcoin can get to $100k, and it may be an easier get than some people think...

People love to throw out the BTC @ $100k number like it's going out of style, but when you really think about, that is really a big number compared to where bitcoin is today.

And really compared to where it has ever traded at in its entire trading history.

As it stands right now, bitcoin is worth roughly $200 billion while currently trading for a shade under $11k.

That means in order for it to get to $100k, it needs to go up by about 10x (we'll be conservative with our numbers and based them off a $10k starting point), and add about $1.8 trillion to its market cap.

A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon we are talking about real money!

Considering that bitcoin has never traded for more than $400 billion, getting to $2 trillion is no small feat.

So, how does it get there???

Well, in all honesty, it got a whole heck of a lot easier when this whole pandemic really kicked off earlier this year.

I don't mean that the virus had anything to do with bitcoin getting to $100k, but the government's response sure does.

Central Banks globally have all basically responded to the current pandemic/economic crisis by throwing money at it.

We have already seen several stimulus bills passed in the trillions of dollars and we are still going to get more.

This debasement of fiat currencies helps things go up that are priced of those fiat currencies.

So, that is the first part of how it is going to get there, weakening fiat currencies globally. The other way it is going to get there is based on the news that came out late last week...

News that can be seen here btw:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/banks-can-now-custody-bitcoin-and-that-is-yuge-news-going-forward

Banks were given clarity on their ability to custody bitcoin on their own accord as well as on behalf of their clients.

This is absolutely huge news and here's why...

  • Banks currently are sitting on roughly $20 trillion in reserves
  • The top 15 banks alone are said to be custodying another $150 trillion on behalf of clients

If just 1 percent the money mentioned above were to take some sort of allocation in bitcoin, whether it be as an investment a hedge or insurance (or something else entirely), that would equate to roughly $200 billion coming from banks and roughly $1.5 trillion coming from clients that banks hold assets for.

Add that all up and we are looking at $1.7 trillion worth of buying that COULD come into bitcoin, and that is just at a 1% allocation and only talking about the holdings of the 15 largest banks when it comes to client assets.

If you are curious how bitcoin gets to $100k, there is your answer right there...

Bitcoin is currently $1.8 trillion short of that $2 trillion and $100k number and the math above shows a 1% allocation by these institutions would just about make up the entire difference.

By the way, if that much money actually came into the bitcoin market the price of bitcoin would likely go much higher than the total fiat dollar amount coming in.

I read a report a while back that talked about the multiple being something like 10x during the bull market of 2017, meaning that for every dollar that came in, the crypto market went up by roughly $10 during that time.

If anything close to that happened, bitcoin would go well north of $100k if $1.7 trillion flowed in over the coming years.

Also, keep in mind that this model assumes a 1% allocation across the board, what if that number was actually closer to 1.5% or 2%?

I'll let you do the math on that one...

As you can see, bitcoin getting to $100k is a lot more "getable" than most people think and the odds of it actually happening got a whole lot better at the start of this year and even more so based on the news last week.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/03/01/crypto-bitcoin-price-long-term/

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance

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I am curious to hear your opinion on Dcity as an investment.
As you did not have a city up to now, i gave you a luxury home.

It's not much, but you have 3 population and 1 sim income.
It would be 2, but social support takes 1 of them.

I hope you check out your micro economy on Dcity.io and tell me what your thoughts are.

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I have heard a little about it, but not much. The little I did hear made it sound like there was potential for very good returns. I haven't looked into it enough to fully understand how it all works just yet, but thank you for the invitation, I will take a look. How do I access this new micro economy of mine?

just go to dcity.io and login with hive keychain.
It's a numbers game, so you have to balance your city to get the best results.

There is a hive pool which is daily distributed over the top 300 players.
And your city generates SIM, which is its own economy.

Have fun!

If you have some questions, here's an invite to the discord.

[discord dcity] (https://discord.gg/hj3R9a)

For the sanitation needs of your citizens i have given you a public restroom as well.
Your city now has a population of 3 and generates 3 SIM income daily.

This means that in 1 year you will earn 1095 SIM, which amounts to 5.47 Hive.
Not bad since your tiny city only set me back a modest 2.6 hive.

Of course such a splendid city will attract the occasional homeless dwellers and will be a magnet for immigrants, which will in turn create social support costs, but you can sell those unwelcome guests on the internal market of provide them with a workplace. You might even train them into artists or scientists if you invest in a job center.

Interesting. I will take a look at this. Thanks for setting me in the right direction.

Your thinking is flawed.
Essentially you're saying
"BTC hits 100K when big money joins in on the speculation"

You're also assuming big money isn't already in the game either through subsidiaries or under pseudo entities.

Big money doesn't even play the share market like that. They generate new wealth by investments into development that then create new economies and industries. Which then generate wealth over 20, 30, 99 year periods.

Speculation is a fools game.
Big money sees money as a worker.
And just like hiring a worker you don't hire someone on how much bullshit they talked in interview. Merit, ability, skills, qualifications are the criteria.

That's why BTC has a long road.
It still doesn't have real use.
What that will be no one truly knows.
That's why it's wrong to compare it to gold.
Gold has real world use in technology which guarantees that humans won't suddenly stop seeing it as valuable.

Do you know how much of the global demand for gold is for technology?

No I don't know how much in used in technology. That's something that requires immense resources and special insider knowledge in order to provide a factual answer.

I or anyone else, doesn't need such knowledge for the point to be valid.

It's obviously used in high end technology and with the global space race now a truly global competition. Gold is an asset that will continue to be utilized and hold value.

It was a comparison though.

Because if we are talking about precious metals. Copper is much more valuable and utilized.

That was exactly my point. Only a small fraction of the demand is related to industrial use, meaning the majority of the price is related to speculation and a believe that it will continue to preserve value, which is not all that different than bitcoin's.

But you can't counter a point with the same point. WTF is wrong with your mind to think that makes sense.

"Oh yeah I agree with you that gold has real world use but it's not much so it doesn't have real use"

The ACTUAL message in my point was GOLD is getting used in technologies.
BTC is still exclusively speculative.
The real world use is not there. And no BTC ATMs aren't really a real world use, and some random car dealer/realtor saying "you can pay with BTC" is not of any significance.

Furthermore, gold HAS had real world use from essentially beginning of civilization.
Use in technology is a modern world thing so I used that example because it's most relevant.

One thing I find funny and sad.
You all have a very CULT MIND to this thing.
You have to though right. Or else you must accept that you're selling yourself very short. A normal person would consider it insane to put all that effort for a few cents.

What was gold used for before it was used in high end electronics?

And no you seemed to have missed my point. My point was the vast majority of gold's market price is based upon speculation and the belief it will hold value over time.

Gold is a hedge in wealth and asset management actually. So it's actually the tangible asset relied on during times of uncertainty.

Now why is it a hedge?
Ok if we know history that answer is simple.
I can't believe you would seriously ask "what?"

I will educate you though: It's use throughout history as an art medium. Use of it by high society. Royalty. Jewellery for masses. Archeology the academic field in constant discovery of how humans have always seen it as valuable. This is why it continues to be a safe asset. Humans value gold immensely.

Now philosophically one can argue: "That's all whithin the human system - gold is no different to LED in the reality of physics."

It's my ultimate view actually, because I don't adhere to materialism as value, yet I see it as THE SYSTEM. Assessing why it's the system though, we realize, that we are ALWAYS holding the human system above physics because the entire human system of civility is really all just ideas that we collectively agree upon.

So if ever gold becomes meaningless, we'll likely have much greater issues than just "what is gold used for". The greater issue would be that society has likely collapsed and "survival" the only thought in our minds and so the only "asset" would be food.

Which, evidently, IS the system in places of the world still. For instance in Africa, in some tribes. A man's cow(s) is their asset.

In Western society this is also evident. That's why Monsanto has the world's largest seed cache stored deep in a facility under snow. Because if 'the system' does collapse. Those seeds have immense value.

Add to that the FOMO effect, we might overshoot $100K and then have to back off.

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Of course. Plus as you may have noticed, the numbers I mentioned in the post would likely take bitcoin well over $100k. It was simply an exercise to show how it could happen using real world dollars and plausible investment allocations.

$100k mark might take a little more time.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Sure it might. Though if it doesn't hit by the end of 2021, it will violate previous halving timelines, patterns, and percentages. So, there is that as well.

Let's wait and see how it pans out

Posted Using LeoFinance

“If” and “may” and “could”.

Yep. Same words that were said when bitcoin was created 11 years ago, $11k ago, and 11 million percent ago.

add the pension funds, they are close to 20 trillion now.

That is another 1% opportunity right there and with the clarification that banks are allowed this gives them the ok to do the same.

Pension funds were included in that $150 trillion number.

When that happens Peter Schiff will go so mad! Saying that it makes no sense and that gold is blablalbla!

I do think that the new money will be spread between Bitcoin and Ethereum+protocols, because Bitcoin without Ethereum only works as a store of value and to make transactions, but with renBTC and tBTC, BTC can be used in a wide wide array of financial protocols on Ethereum.

Posted Using LeoFinance

It will likely flow into both. They are very different and that will be made more and more apparent as time goes on. Bitcoin is a store of value akin to digital gold and ethereum hopes to be the fabric for which the next iteration of the internet is built upon.

That's a good news though for the Bitcoiners @jrcornel. Are you too?

Am I bitcoiner? Sure.

Hahahahaha. That's lovely. I wish to be too but I'm so poor. I guess you can read it on my face too 😫😩😫

Bitcoin to $100k is all but inevitable. (barring humanity destroying itself or being destroyed)

We have not even begun to see flight from the dollar into cryptos.
We have not even begun to see crypto adoption.
We have not even begun to see money printing.

Any one of these can make a 10x move in bitcoin seem like a bump in the road.
My problem has always been, what does the rest of the world look like when Bitcoin is $100k? $1M?

Yep, I completely agree, on all points.

Regarding your last point, I think the world could look pretty similar as it does today and have BTC at $100k, but for bitcoin to get to $1 million I think there will likely have to be a serious loss of purchasing power of the dollar, a la hyperinflation.

You right. Market capitalisation is not like "active is priced $2 trillon MC so there is $2 trillon is injected and waiting somewere". It's a slice of current demand and supply. If someone buys 10 BTC for 100k each and that's all for a day, than the price of BTC that day is set to 100k and it's MC goes to 2 trillion. Even if it's just one million (10x100k) worth is actually traded.

Yes, exactly.