If past patterns play out we could see HIVE go on a massive run in the next couple months...
While I don't think the altcoins cycles will play out quite as exact as the bitcoin cycles do, they certainly could.
For that reason it makes sense to look at the past and at least get an idea of what we might see with HIVE if the past were to remotely rhyme this time around...
Lets dive in!
The bitcoin halving back in 2016 took place in July of 2016.
The price of STEEM bottomed out around $.07 on March 16th 2017.
Here's the chart:
(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/)
From there it took roughly 3 months to eventually top out at $2.35 on June 10th.
Then from there it mostly trended lower until it eventually bottomed out on November 7th at roughly $.86.
From there the price surged all the over $9 on January 4th, or thereabouts.
Keep in mind that exact numbers and dates of the highs may be off slightly due to me using the coinmarketcap charts, which sometimes makes it difficult to get the exact data.
Either way, the prices and dates will be very close.
What can we learn from this data?
If history were to repeat this time around, and I suspect that it may actually rhyme a little here's what we would expect to see...
There are two possible scenarios I see playing out, the first one is based on the idea that these price moves are seasonally based.
Meaning that the price will surge on/around the same time it did the last time.
If that were the case, we would see HIVE making a local high on/around June 10th.
Then we would expect to see it remain week for much of the rest of the year before bottoming in November and then topping out in January at massively high levels.
The second case is related to the halving, which took place 2 months earlier this time around...
If we apply that 2 month earlier model, we would see HIVE peaking on/around April 10th before ultimately topping out in early November of this year.
It's interesting that the first model has us making lows in November, while the second has us making all time highs in November.
It sounds like either way, something is happening in November!
My opinion is that we will see some sort of deviation of this model...
Specifically, I think we will HIVE peak at some point between April and July of this year before hopefully seeing an even higher high in roughly January of 2022.
Regarding a price projection, my guess is that it will be in the dollars somewhere, something like peaking over a dollar in June, and then going over $2 in January of 2022 sounds pretty reasonable to me.
We shall see!
What do you see playing out for HIVE this year?
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
It is amazing to see a few lines of generic opinion and a screenshot from someone else's website on Trending, but then again, maybe it isn't all that surprising. Real analysis and well-written articles tend not to be easy to find on Hive, but they're out there.
Ha, have you looked at trending much? There's over 30 comments here which shows the topic is one people are interested in...
Compare that with $50+ dollar posts with a single comment:
https://hive.blog/hive-150280/@mattsanthonyit/the-naturalmedicine-healer-herbal-plant-for-every-human-age-or-or-keeping-its-seeds-for-the-next-planting-season
https://hive.blog/dailypetphotography/@animal-shelter/dailypetphotography-master-of-disguise
Value truly is subjective.
Sounds feasible and very reasonable 🌟
We just need history to repeat at least one more time...
I think there’s a saying that once the wave recedes the water is a little higher than before.... and if in peoples minds atleast (held in higher regard maybe) ! so I’m optimistics for sure
I think, it should cross 0.5$ very soon and then head towards 1$ .
In case it reaches $1, activity on the chain will take it much higher than $2.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ye, can't wait for "hello ser, I'll upvote you an you upvote me back" times haha.
Hopefully that is correct because I think the odds of us hitting $1 this year are pretty good.
To the moon ....
you know that's steem right? ;)
Yes... I was just blowing up the last part of his Graph. This is where Hive will go too based on Historical precedence
Hopefully history can repeat at least one more time...
That chart looks like steem went over $.40 but it hasn't been over $.40 yet this year?
You go to the moon centralized I'll be here with my morals.
I do not expect Hive to reach past
a dollar. With everything going on
around here #hive needs something
to sustain that price mark.
Lately the market has its own root
to follow.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
it will absolutely blow past a dollar. The only thing this place needs is for LEO to gets its own BTC and USD pair. Quickly.
Why do you think a USD or BTC pair for LEO will help HIVE go up?
Because there is a ton of wealth being generated through LEO that has only one way to liquidate and that is through Hive.
I see. Keep in mind that the majority of the volume and liquidity is actually in the Uniswap wLEO Pool which goes through ETH... That being said, if someone sells LEO on Hive-Engine they would also be buying HIVE on Hive-Engine...
Right yeah good point i suppose i didn't really think down that line as i'm not into Defi much. Your right though its probably not that as big a deal as i thought. Still im not sure because most is powered up and as far as im aware that cant go straight to uni swap or can it?
For example if i want to sell my mined Leo daily i have to sell into hive and then dump that hive on BInance. ive been thinking about using steem instead but i cant get steem off hive engine, but i think i just need to add my steem keys to the keychain.
Ha yea it's hard to keep track of it all sometimes. And yea it must be powered down first, then wrapped into wLEO and sent to Uni. Once there it can be sold for ETH.
I think LEO is going to be a great driver of value for HIVE and I think having a HIVE pair is actually a good thing for HIVE, that way if people want to buy LEO they need to first buy HIVE. HIVE is the gateway to get to where they want to go...
That being said, the example you posted above could theoretically put downward pressure on HIVE because you are buying the HIVE on hive-engine (where the supply mostly just sits) and then selling on an Exchange that sets the external price... so I get what you are saying. :) Though if that happened at enough scale, it would force buying of HIVE because the supply on Hive-Engine would run out.
Well we will see. I don't think many of the price gains will be sustainable in much of the altcoins to be honest. In a bull market everything gets bid up, in a bear market everything gets sold.
I think it will depend somewhat on what happens in tribes/communities. If Hive climbs to 50c or so, AND that results in a bunch of community owners/founders feeling inspired to follow in the footsteps of LeoFinance it could create a lot of momentum because suddenly there would be "many angles of attack" on drawing new users in... and that could easily send Hive to $5 by sometime in 2022. On the other hand, if people flock in to have a giant cash grab and little else, we'll probably go to 50-60c and then slowly drift back to where we were a couple of months back...
=^..^=
The way the market behaves the sellers will be stampeded. When it blows, it blows fast and that creates a lot of chemistry. Fear of missing out, lack of selling, instant regret for selling etc etc. Sellers will be destroyed either way.
Yea, these things tend to go up up just as fast as they went down, sometimes even faster.
That's sort of how it works right? Look at DOGE. It has had very little developer activity for years, and then the price starts flying and all the sudden developers are showing up in droves. If the price goes up, the people will come.
really hard to say, although for now the correlation of Steem/Hive is almost perfect. So that would mean that we would be in the dollar ranges fairly soon (not sure if we can get ahead of Steem - that would require some news event or serious onboarding etc.). I wouldn't be surprised to see 10$ in the next year, but it won't be sustainable. 1$ is definitely too low of a target for selling.
That would be nice and even higher than the previous all time highs. The only thing working against that might be the fact that the supply is roughly 50% greater now than it was back in 2017, with much of that already sitting on Exchanges...
The price of hive can't be predicted. I used to think if bitcoin goes up, it drives everything up, but hive has been giving a reverse move. So we can't really tell if it would go higher than it currently is. But should bitcoin come down, it will certainly bring everything down. Let's just watch and see
These things actually move in fairly predictable cycles. It tends to be bitcoin first, then the altcoins. When altcoins moves, they tend to move in stages. The large cap alts, then the mid cap alts, then the small cap alts. If you really pay attention it's not as random as you might think.
We shall see... 1 dollar seems pretty good to me too. I would value hive at least at 3 dollars though. But going to 1 dollar and staying there would give us the impulse we need to develop and grow to later go to the top 50 ,imo.
A higher price will certainly encourage more users and more activity, which is definitely needed!
This time we won’t have Steemit Inc’s monthly selling. It would be interesting to know if they increased that selling during all time highs to secure capital for the bear market.
True, but there is also a lot more supply out there currently and a lot more of that supply sitting on Exchanges, which will play a major role. By my calculations there is at least 50% more supply right now than there was back in 2017.
That's a great point. Hopefully people can hold on strong until I have pulled some profit. 😂
If we use that supply logic to get a peak price, we would expect a price 50% lower (to get the same market cap), which would be in the $4-$5 range. I should look at the amount sitting on Exchanges now vs. then to get another possible price projection compared with our peak back then...
That's true. One thing to take into account possibly is the fact that the entire crypto market is also larger in terms of people and market cap than it was in 2017 so the two might help balance each other out. The two being increased supply but more people/money.
What ranking on cmc do you think we might reach during these bull runs?
That is the really tricky part... honestly I have no idea. HIVE could be $1 and 200 on CM, or it could be $1 and 80th on CM depending...
At the peak, I say we get back within the top 100 though.
1$ could be huge for onboarding new users. User influx will take care of the rest of the price action.
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