A fall to $20k would be a $22k drop from the $42k highs, which would be equal to a 52% correction. A 52% correction would be bigger than any of the corrections we saw during the 2017 bull market. In fact, the largest correction we saw in the 2017 bull market was only 38%, which means 52% is a rather large deviation. So, while this kind of move isn't impossible, it represents something out of what bitcoin has historically done during these bull markets. I'll stick with bitcoin doing what it has continued to do thus far, and that is follow the patterns from 2013 and 2017. Expecting something else would be expecting this time to be different, and that is often a dangerous game in finance, and especially in bitcoin.
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In January 2017 Bitcoin spiked to $1100, reaching all time highs for a brief moment and then crashing fully back to the doubling curve at $800. To compare this run to 2017 is to assume that Bitcoin spiked much harder to $2000 and was more sustained... never happened. None of these timelines add up, and I have a sneaking suspicion the real peak will be in Q2 2022, which will begin in Q2 2021. I'll have a much bigger chance of being right if the price of Bitcoin dips around $20k-$22k in April.
They do line up, but you are looking at them on a month by month basis which is not likely how this is going to play out. The halving happened more than 2 months EARLIER this time around, which means technically we are actually in March of 2017 right now for comparison's sake. But either way, I don't think it's going to play out in a one to one fashion in terms of what month each correction occurred in, the point is that no correction was as large as you are suggesting this one should/could be.
Seasonality may play a role here, but even if that is the case and Q1 is bad or soft of bitcoin, the amount of weakness is not like to be as severe as you keep talking about.
Again, looking at 2017, even at the end of Q1 in March Bitcoin was only trading at $1300... that's nowhere near where we're at right now ($2000 equivalent). All the real gains were made in summer. Avoiding Q1 is not a risky strategy IMO.
As I mentioned above, the halving was 2 months earlier, which means march of 2017 is equivalent to January of 2021 in terms of time-after-halving.