Well considering the pandemic is the economy at this point, getting the pandemic/virus under control via vaccines and better treatments etc will mean the economy recovers as well. This is different than most slowdowns in that it was done on purpose. Once the virus is under control, and it won't happen over night, but instead will likely take at least until mid 2021, things will rebound hard.
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In six weeks the American economy will be all about the coming soon civil war, and "the virus" will never be under control - that is not the script!
I am still amazed you think the global economy will recover anytime soon, - happy to take a small bet on that one!
https://peakd.com/hive-122315/@jasonliberty/us-s-election-2020-orchestrating-civil-war
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Sure, what are your terms?
I bet you 10 Hive that the American economy is in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters
Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.
Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.
Deal, but can we make it 100 HIVE? :)
We can if you like - I didn't want to make it stressful because I'm taking so many big bets on cryptos at the moment that I need light relief.
It's a drop in the ocean, but if I lose 10 Hive I'll go "LOL, I should have shut my pie hole" but if I lose 100 and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)
On the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning this, so it should be fun! OK, lets run with 100 Hive. OK with you if I do a blog post about this? - I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.
"if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"
Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)
Yep, do a post on it. I'd love to hear others input as well. I like the terms. Thanks for coming up with that! Btw, here's a vote that should help with the cost a bit should I win. ;)
Thanks - yeah, I started thinking if we both do blog posts about it, we could probably cover some of the potential loss anyway!
Well you could, I won't need to :)
By the way, does this mean if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?
This is what the official US gov predictions are like - yeah right! - is that the most moronic chart of all time?
To be honest, my own estimates are not that far off from those. What can I say, I believe in the "kicking the can down the road" theory. :)
This is how they made that chart: