If that were to happen, it would be something different than we have seen in both previous cycles post halving. However, anything "could" happen. I am just not betting on it.
You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
If that were to happen, it would be something different than we have seen in both previous cycles post halving. However, anything "could" happen. I am just not betting on it.
not necessarily: the last halving (seen here as the vertical line) saw a 40% drop from 780 to 450 2 months after the halving. Stocks are really on edge right now again as well, and I think BTC hasn't quite decoupled from it yet. But the bulls are definitely strong currently... so I am not too sure as well
The previous halving was July 9th, 2016. It looks like your chart is showing something different?
And that drop from the halving was about a month or so post halving, and more like a 20% drop from the time of the halving to the low.
Using that same data this time around, we would have seen a 20% drop before the middle of July.
Well, here we are end of July and no drop...
That expected drop is what I had been positioning for for the last couple months, but it never came.
Thanks for pointing that out. You're right it was July 9th. I found it can be rather inaccurate to use time periods from the past and extrapolate them to the future. It's variable just like the fractals. What it shows to me is that there definitely was a correction very briefly and it is a possibility for it to occur again. But it is just one of many indicators. Like you often point out the general outlook is quite positive :)
Posted using Dapplr
Yep there was a correction, but it was within the first month post halving, most likely related to a "sell the news" type of event. We are now getting close to 3 months post halving this time around, and the event is likely fully digested by the market now. A drop at this point would have to be more due to a black swan type of event rather than how it occurred the last time... at least in my opinion anyways. :)