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RE: Leo Talk 3/18/2021 -Come Join Our Chat

in LeoFinance4 years ago

So the FOMC was here today and the market rallied afterwards. It looks like the FED think that inflation is going to be 2.4% (higher than before) and by 2023, rates should still be near zero. I think its a load of bs and I think they can't stop the speculation in the bond market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/heres-where-the-federal-reserve-sees-interest-rates-the-economy-and-inflation-going-in-the-future.html

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The central bank now expects real gross domestic product to grow 6.5% in 2021, compared with its 4.2% forecast from its December meeting.

After a -3% GDP in 2020, that is pathetic and nothing to brag about.

The Fed estimates the unemployment rate will fall to 4.5% in 2021, below the previous estimate of 5%.

Throw enough people off unemployment and you can get the number down to whatever you want.

The central bank now sees inflation running to 2.4% this year, above its previous estimate of 1.8%.

This is probably accurate since the supply chains are fucked up and every oil hole was plugged the last year sending the price of oil screaming.

Of course, the Fed's track record for the past decade is to overestimate inflation. I think there is more hope than analysis in there.

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Yea I don't agree with the unemployment and the GDP numbers are always like that. Its built based on the previous year so the numbers are always super overblown. Remember those headlines when they multiplied the quarterly GDP percentage by 4 to scare people?

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Yeah most people do not take the time to figure out if something is on a quarterly or annualized basis. When they toss the number up for the later, things can look a lot worse (or better if it suits the needs).

Just more propaganda that the television watchers and headline grabbers latch onto.

They ought to have a test to watch television to make sure people are smart enough to dissect what is being promoted. But then it would not work as the propaganda tool.

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Also people don't understand how the numbers can be misinterpreted. Some of the economic indicators are 50 for no change and people don't even know that. If its above 50, expansion and below 50, contraction.

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