I bet you 10 Hive that the American economy is in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters
Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.
Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.
Deal, but can we make it 100 HIVE? :)
We can if you like - I didn't want to make it stressful because I'm taking so many big bets on cryptos at the moment that I need light relief.
It's a drop in the ocean, but if I lose 10 Hive I'll go "LOL, I should have shut my pie hole" but if I lose 100 and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)
On the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning this, so it should be fun! OK, lets run with 100 Hive. OK with you if I do a blog post about this? - I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.
"if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"
Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)
Yep, do a post on it. I'd love to hear others input as well. I like the terms. Thanks for coming up with that! Btw, here's a vote that should help with the cost a bit should I win. ;)
Thanks - yeah, I started thinking if we both do blog posts about it, we could probably cover some of the potential loss anyway!
Well you could, I won't need to :)
Haha! I like it. Regarding the trash talk... I like the fact that the government's projections could be off by 90% and I will still win. :)
The joys of being a contrarian - never fear long odds!
I'll probably do a post on the bet tomorrow, let me know when you drop your post so I can be sure to throw it a vote!
By the way, does this mean if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?
This is what the official US gov predictions are like - yeah right! - is that the most moronic chart of all time?
To be honest, my own estimates are not that far off from those. What can I say, I believe in the "kicking the can down the road" theory. :)
This is how they made that chart: