Today I'm going to do something I've never done before. Wait, that's not entirely true. I'm doing this all day, every day, but I've never posted TA on Hive before. Yesterday I was thinking of charting Hive, as today is the last day of the week, then I thought, if I do this anyway, I might as well share it with you on Hive. Most likely no one is going to read it, which is more than fine by me, but who knows.
Before I start, please note, this is not financial advice! It is how I see the market at the moment.
Because I've never shared such an analysis before, let's start with the monthly chart and then move down to lower time frames.
Looking at the monthly chart, things are not looking quite rosy for our token. At the moment of writing, $HIVE is trading at $0.2277, which is the level the token was trading at in June, 2021, almost three years ago and it's million miles away from its ATH.
On the monthly scale, $HIVE had three consecutive bearish candles. This month is not over yet, there are still 9 days left till this candle close. So far this month's candle is bullish, but again, we have to wait for the candle to close to know for sure if we finally have a bullish candle, or we register another bearish candle.
There's something interesting to note here. This month we had a huge drop and price got close to the level $HIVE reached in June 2021, but interestingly price did not sweep that low. These relatively equal lows usually work like a magnet, but let's hope we don't revisit that level.
As I mentioned above, the month is not over, the monthly candle is not closed yet, but should it close like this, it's going to leave a bearish fair value gap (FVG).
Looking at the weekly chart, things are a bit more clear. Price had a nice bounce at the $0.1663 level. Last week we had a nice bullish candle, but price did not manage to close above and confirm the order bloc (OB). At the time of writing, there are approximately 9 hours left till the weekly candle close, and for bullish continuation, the candle has to close above the dark pink line.
I'm a liquidity based trader, so I'm looking for liquidity pools, which means old highs, old lows or fair value gaps. On the last leg down, or on the sell side, price is looking pretty balanced, except that single bearish FVG, which could reject price. Should price close above the FVG, inverting it, we could see price seeking liquidity higher. We have some nice relative equal highs at the level of $0.4987, which would be the next level to look at.
On a daily scale, we can see price bounced off the $0.1663 level nicely. It took five days to close above the FVG and invert it, so I wouldn't call it a V-shape recovery but let's not forget we're talking about the daily chart here.
Friday's up-close candle confirmed the OB, which means bullish continuation. The immediate level I'm targeting on the daily is $0.2636, which then can act as support. In case that level holds, then I'm looking for price to rebalance the bearish FVG above it, invert it, which would mean bullish continuation to higher levels, like 0.3852. Otherwise we can see a retest of lower levels.
Driving down to a lower time frame, on the h4 (which for me, as a scalper, means high time frame but it doesn't matter in this case), you can see we had an FVG at $0.2143 level, which has managed to hold price nicely so far. We had another bullish FVG recently, a skinnier one, which was rebalanced today and at the time of writing, it's supporting price nicely. If price manages to stay about this FVG, there are some nice, untapped equal highs at $0.2372 that can work as nice liquidity pools. In case price closes above and manages to hold that level, the next level I'm looking at is $0.2496 and then $0.2636. In case the current FVG can't hold price, we could see a retest of the previous FVG.
On a more granular scale, looking at the h1 chart, drawing up my dealing range, you can see price rebalanced the bullish FVG, bounced off mid-range and is in premium territory right now. So far the FVG is holding price, which means the next level I'm looking at is the intermediate term high (ITH) at $0.232 and then $0.2372. If the FVG fails to hold price, I'm looking at the last wick as liquidity pool as there are stop losses placed there, or those nice relatively equal lows below it.
In an ideal world, we short from premium and long from discount area, but there's no perp option for Hive, only spot, which complicates things quite a bit.
So this is how I see the market at the moment. Again, this is not financial advice, any action you take is at your own risk!
Also please note, $HIVE is a different animal, it's not like any other asset out there. We've seen huge candles coming out of nowhere, catching everyone off guard. Thread with caution, please!
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
I'm not sure if I'm going to do this on a regular bases, maybe if there will be requests I can drop some TA from time to time, but this was fun.
Later Edit
I'm dropping an update here. About an hour ago the news broke out about President Biden dropping out of the presidential race. We all know any news can move the markets, especially risk assets can have a sharp reaction to news.
If we look at the charts, most of the assets wicked down and we got a V-shape recovery. $HIVE also reacted to the news, but the h1 candle closed above the bullish FVG and it is also a bullish engulfing candle. So far so good.
If you're a newbie, you may want to check out these guides:
- Communities Explained - Newbie Guide
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- Hive Is Not For Me
- How To Pump Your Reputation Fast - Newbie Guide
- Tips And Tricks & Useful Hive Tools For Newbies
- More Useful Tools On Hive - Newbie Guide
- Community List And Why It Is Important To Post In The Right Community
- Witnesses And Proposals Explained - Newbie Guide
- To Stake, Or Not To Stake - Newbie Guide
- Tags And Tagging - Newbie Guide
- Newbie Expectations And Reality
- About Dust Vote And Hive Reward Pool, by libertycrypto27
Nicely done technical analysis. I don't trade so I would prefer more picture posts 😆 I made some crypto several years ago and push it along from game to game. I enjoy having some currency to game with but thats about it for me. Looks like there is a community here that would love your analysis though 👍
Thank you Steven! Time will tell :)
This is an analysis that we need, I like to read... in the hope that I will get good news. The problem is that whoever reads something like this must also understand, and know the specific terms. I don't know them (may I say a "yet" here) and so I look with admiration at something I don't understand. I am glad you understand and hope your analysis will help the more advanced.
Thank you for that!
I'm glad to read this, but I can only tell you, what the chart gives me, good or bad 🙂
Yes, these terms are specific to trading, but you can search and read about them as today, thanks to internet, everything is available for free. Also, you can ask me questions and I can explain what you don't understand.
Thank you very much, especially for the promise to answer my questions. They won't come now, but I'm sure I'll ask for your help.
You're welcome and I'll do my best to answer your questions and guide you towards the right source.
Wow friend @erikah, congratulations, your skills are many!... This #Hive financial analysis thing has surprised me, my eldest son has been trading since 2020 and has tried to explain to me a few times the behaviour of some crypto assets, but I'm pretty bad at interpreting candlestick charts and the like! :(... However, I'll keep one sentence of yours that made me feel very close to what I think about #Hive: ‘Also please note, $HIVE is a different animal, it's not like any other asset out there. We've seen huge candles coming out of nowhere, catching everyone off guard. Thread with caution, please!’ ;)
Interesting article, I think, in my humble opinion, that you could be here with this kind of analysis at least weekly!... I have seen that this kind of publications have good receptivity in #Hive... I, in particular, usually read them and try to understand as much as possible their content, because as I told you, I find it difficult to understand this kind of articles (and everything with numbers in general!)... But I am interested in #Hive, for me it is an ecosystem different from others associated with the crypto-economy and I think it can depend on itself to grow in the future...
!discovery 35
!VSC
!PIZZA
Thank you Jesus! I know it can looks and sound confusing at first, but it's not rocket science either, so if I could learn it, anyone else can. You just need to dedicate some time to it. If your son is a trader, he can help you understand things.
And yes, $HIVE is a different animal, very different from the other assets. I'm glad you liked the analysis, I may post on a weekly bases, who knows.
Have a nice day my friend!
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Loved the TA, ty!
Thanks Empo!
I would love to read your analysis. More to come!
Maybe I'm going to post more.
I've always wondered if all this technical analysis really works?
Only if you know how to use it.
I think it's a great tool. But it's important having a strategy.
Some trade, others hold, others just want to cash out.
Reading signs help to predict behaviors and patterns, cause patterns are everywhere
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That's why you did a great job, was no one reading and looks like you catch lot attention. 😁
Great notes and i noticed that when hive was this low, we jump to ATH.
With luck and good effort we will reach ATH and make some noise on crypto marketing.
Great job. Interesting insights.
Thank you.
Well, jump is a very strong word, there's a very long way to the ATH and there's no guarantee we even get there, but hope dies last.
One candle at a time and who knows...
Exactly!
I read this analysis wow you are one smart cookie, understanding stuff like this is way above my pay grade
Thank you @grindle. It looks complicated at first, but not impossible to learn.
You're welcome
alas in the words of the great philosopher Homer
"every time I learn some thing new, something old drops out"
Yeah, it's looking like a V-shaped recovery. Going down into the $0.16 zone was an absolute gift for anyone who utilized it. Provided BTC holds current levels, it's unlikely we revisit those lows. However, with this market, you never know. I have been expecting $70K for BTC this month... if that is achieved it, should be a psychological level that entices buyers.
$BTC conference next week, looks like Trump wants to use the occasion to make some campaign gains. We have three red folder days this week as well, so who knows. We shall see.
Yeah, Trump memecoins doing well! I had a few good trades... should be an interesting conference indeed!😎
Need more campaigns or buy more like I am 😀
Good luck.
Thank you
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STOPDidn't read the article on time, though I'm also a trader; a day trader to be more precise, I recently also made another technical analysis post, currently hive is retracing and I'm getting my share out of it, I hope you are too.
I do hope ad s time goes on, we can get to our all time high as seen in the longer time-frames, that will be mind blowing, just wondering what exactly will get us there.
Well, time will tell if we get to the ATH or not. Would be a shame not to, but this is a game of probability, not certainty.
Wow, it is a very complete technical analysis, it is good that you have been encouraged to share it because as you may have noticed in this publication there are many people who are interested in it and it will surely be useful. Personally since I joined Hive I have not sold anything, and my minimum goal would be to sell if it reaches 1 dollar although it will be a long time before that happens, now is the time to accumulate and prepare for that moment if it arrives.