Stuck at the Top

Didn't expect it would last this long.

I always knew we'd have problems getting past unit-bias around $100k, but honestly I didn't think it would take longer than half a year in the middle of the bull market window. Thus far we've been stuck in range ever since the election in November, which is both impressive and annoying to an extent. It seems no matter how much Saylor and other institutions buy there's an infinite liquidity wall available to fill their orders.

At a certain point you really have to wonder if quantum computing has already cracked Bitcoin and the victor is just slowly syphoning off coins to fill the demand. It's doubtful this is a thing considering the paranoia of the industry and there are no whispers of it happening, so I have to assume it really just is people fearfully selling the top for an extended period of time... which makes sense considering how many of us waited for $100k (over 5 years of grinding).

Paper Bitcoin?

The more accepted theory as to why number not go up is because entities like Saylor aren't actually buying BTC because Coinbase is just issuing them an IOU without buying the asset. Funny enough I consider this to be way less likely then quantum hacks even though it was the direct source of the last bear market by way of FTX, UST, and 3AC.

We've never had two bear markets in a row that resulted from the same type of behavior. MT GOX 2013 was a hack. 2017 was unceremoniously ended by the ability to short the top. 2021 was overleverage. 2025 will probably end in a completely different way just like all the other years did. My guess (and the guess of many others) is that it will be catalyzed by these Bitcoin holding companies like MSTR who keep irresponsibly printing debt to buy more and more BTC. At a certain point that bubble will be undeniable.

The TA on Bitcoin right now is simultaneously boring but significant. Crabbing right above $100k is boring but also exactly what we need to flush the last paper hands out of the market. Funding rate is still uncharacteristically and comically low. Never in the entire history of Bitcoin have investors been so pitifully afraid at all time highs. The number of people willing to go long at the top is quite low, which you'd think would be the standard but is quite rare. People love buying the top, but not this time.

The moving averages are also really weird right now. The DMA(25) and DMA(50) have been hugging each other for a week and a half now, which is something that I'm fairly certain I've never seen. The DMA(100) is days away from hitting $100k which is a huge milestone. 100 days above $100k on average is quite bullish for flushing out the liquidity void.

It has been my theory for many months now that we need to get to around $120k for a new alt market to start and to get some of that long awaited parabolic action we've been waiting for. On the other side of that coin, I've been predicting a summer peak in late July, which is only two weeks away now. I'll have to consider selling in a couple weeks even if the market doesn't go up like I want. I refuse to be cash-poor during September as this has been a good buying month for over a decade straight.

Will be interesting to see if we get a breakout based on moon cycles once again. Full moon is in three days. I somewhat expect a parabolic breakout soonish but also one final scare to $100k also seems like a pretty valid move. Should we get that move I'll have to increase my long substantially. I also have an order in at $104k because I took some gains last week and wanted to buy lower... alas the dip has yet to come and the order has just been sitting on the books for what feels like forever.

Late start to bear market?

A lot of analysists were hoping that this run mirrored 2017. It was looking pretty good for a while but the dream is dead in that regard. We've simply crabbed too much at the unit-bias level. At this point the $100k crab lasted just as long as the $58k crab (7-8 months) which is actually crazy to me. I really thought we weren't gonna have this problem and there wasn't enough time for it to happen, but apparently we had plenty of time.

If we don't get violently parabolic action in Q4 I'm going to have to wonder if this run ends a little later than usual (March 2026). Of course there is no rule that price needs to have a blow off top during this cycle, but it's also difficult to imagine that not happening considering the levels of corporate and government adoption we are seeing. If there's one thing I've learned during all this, it's that CEOs and government officials FOMO just as hard into crypto as the pleb degens. It only takes one viral spark to send everything into an irrational spiral upward (and then downward).

Conclusion

Market is still boring! Boring, but insightful. We've crabbed at $100k almost just as long as we crabbed at $58k. We are due for a strong uptrend very soon. September should be a great month to buy the dip, and if it's not (for the first time in a decade) we need to seriously consider it to be a huge red flag. August is always a complete wildcard as well so we are quickly heading into choppy waters. Stay vigilant.

Posted Using INLEO