All I know is that I'll be very nervous once BTC gets x10 above the curve.
If BTC gets to $200k in June I'd be issuing serious warnings.

A lot of the macro timelines add up to a peak in October, but the yearly cycles of money clearly dictate that velocity is highest near Christmas and the end of the fiscal year: for obvious reasons.

I'd be surprised if we didn't peak in December or January.

But now that you mention it... the best outcome would be a peak in October followed by months of sideways action for the best alt-market ever. Also a possibility considering how money flows in Q4.