I hear this a lot but I honestly never understand the logic. We've only seen the results of two halving events. One of those bull runs (first one?) is just from exponential network expansion alone. Are we projecting that one day these cycles will be longer than the 4-year halving event? Seems weird.
I don't think we have enough data here to make any kind of valid prediction. We are in totally uncharted territory: Bitcoin having a solid network in the middle of an impending unprecedented global financial crisis. We have no history for what is about to happen. Very curious to see how this wrecks all the predictions.
I gotta say those graphs do look really nice though, and if Bitcoin is becoming less volatile over time because the network and liquidity are expanding exponentially (should be the case) then we very well could have a predictable outcome... who knows.
There's more to the story that may help to convince. 😉
https://cointelegraph.com/news/history-shows-bitcoin-price-may-take-3-12-months-to-finally-break-20k
I'm skeptical, as none of these predictions take into consideration what is actually going on in the world. It's just a bunch of nerds looking at graphs trying to predict future price movements based on what's happened over the last decade.
The reason Bitcoin was invented is happening right now in 2020. There is no history for this. Corporations swapping USD reserves for Bitcoin? Unprecedented QE and inflation targets? Economic breakdowns in the developing nations that may force them to abandon fiat before anyone else? Possibility of hyperinflation never been higher? USD may lose its world-reserve status? Negative interest rates? Likely bank failures and resulting "bail ins" because bailouts were made illegal? Using crypto to avoid sanctions? Using crypto as a means for capital flight?
Any of of those things could mess up that pretty little graph. All of them happening at once create the ultimate chaotic situation that cannot be predicted. None of these pretty little graphs could possibly take all these variables into consideration. Chaos is coming.
You nailed it.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Every pattern works until it doesn't. The interesting about what is being suggested here is that there were also numerous black swans during each of the previous bull markets as well (china bans, exchange hacks, debt ceiling crisis, brexit, etc etc etc), though the markets pretty much repeated similar patterns overall...
I'm a modern day merchant, I love real business and hate the fake stock market, so you can see I'm trying to look at actual numbers, actual sales and where these number amount to reality. Who is buying them and why.
But this form of crypto is set up in the exact way the stock market is set up and the stock market has been set up in a way that few understands what's going on in reality.
Day traders, multipliers, betting, bullhorns, it's all made up in a complex system like a real life version of advanced monopoly.
Needs to be revised, the stock market is already destroying us and our planet, not too mention war crimes and mass chemical genocide to say this as a understatement.
It's like the old dudes created a computer game where they can actually exchange fake money to real money, then evolved for a couple of hundred years to these insane levels we see today.
I think that is exactly what the data could be suggesting, though like you said it's too early to make too many firm conclusions. This would actually line up more along the lines of the efficient market hypothesis as well. As the markets grow more "sophisticated" these parabolic runs will happen less and less as future information gets priced in quicker and quicker.
No data is perfect but this is all we have to work with. It may be wildly inaccurate or it may continue to play out in a similar fashion. It doesn't make sense to base your entire investment thesis on these patterns continuing to play out, but they might so they are important to watch, at the very least.
For sure... for now those graphs are looking very impressive and predictable.
So clean.
Hopefully they stay that way.
Yeah me too, that's why I want to know the actual driving forces behind these numbers. Who is buying these stocks, from where and why? I know crypto is an anonymous platform, but there must be data of the transactions we can see, why the numbers keep growing, then we could check those factors with the market, to make a more accurate prediction.
(basically we are looking at sales and price increase due to those sales, stock market system, based solely on sales or supply and demand or + & -)
Well, they aren't "stocks", they are strings of data called cryptocurrencies or coins. But yes there may be some powerful whales behind the scenes pulling the strings. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was...
Yeah I meant to say crypto, used the wrong word because it's same principle.