Okay well first of all you've assumed the price of Hive will go up.
If the price of Hive goes down HBD automatically wins.

On top of that assumption you're saying HBD can probably hold the peg.
Maybe it can, maybe it can't.

If there was a 50/50 chance of Hive going up or Hive going down HBD is the obvious way to make money on average.
You always win on the way down and you might even win on the way up.
This gives you better than 50/50 odds with HBD.