Christmas Vacation
I've been enjoying my time off but it's been way too long.
Just thought I'd pop in to give a PSA on the state of Hive perpetuals.
Binance listing
Hive got a pretty big pump earlier this month when Binance listed a Hive/USDT perps market. Of course those of us who know how Hive likes to pump and dump have been using this opportunity to short the market in anticipation of the immediate crashes that we so often encounter. However now the trade has become extremely overcrowded and the funding rate is screaming that Hive is going to pump again despite having just pumped.
Shorts are getting fleeced
This morning the cost to short Hive reached a record-breaking low of -2%, which is absolutely unheard of. This means anyone that was shorting Hive at 7 AM EST lost 2% of their stack immediately. For reference the "billing cycle" for these perps is 4 hours (twice as much as the 8 hours for bigger markets), Meaning that if this 2% was somehow sustained that would imply that shorts were paying the longs 4,380% APR... which is better than most of the yields during DEFI 2020 peak hype cycle. Since then it's collapsed quickly back down to around -0.45% at the moment... but even that is around 1000% APR.
Do not bet against the funding rate
There's a very high chance that Hive users who are shorting the token have no idea they are getting absolutely wrecked by the funding rate right now. I've setup a long position on MEXC just to capitalize on these yields while they last. I never bet against the funding rate and that strategy has served me quite well up until this point.
My current position is x2 long using $2600 USDT... so if Hive were to crash 50% I'd lose it all... which can easily happen but I don't imagine it will with yields like this. It's also possible to make the position "risk free" by adjusting it to x1 long just to farm these insane yields, which is undoubtedly what market makers are doing right now. This yield is just too juicy to pass up, which would normally imply that we will pump again and bust all these shorts, but you never know with Hive.
Conclusion
I was supposed to post this a lot sooner in the day because the funding rate is crashing quite quickly. However it's still at -0.4% at the moment which is 876% APR. I'll have to close my risky-ish position once it gets much closer to zero.
Consider this a PSA to anyone who has an active short on Binance or MEXC how has no idea who much money they are paying the shorts right now. It's very difficult to make money with an APR that high chipping away at your stack every 4 hours. The only option to short in this environment is to sell spot. Be careful out there.
Miss you fre :)
Then I must return posthaste!
Have you ever taken this long of a break yet? Miss seeing you on X too.
It's been a while but I've done full month sabbaticals before.
First time I did it my witness partners thought I ghosted.
Oops.
Looks like volume is falling overnight - but 24-houris still over 3x market cap, which is a bit nuts.
Looks like I might need to put a higher sale out on the internal market. I took advantage of one of the smaller pumps, waiting for it to drop back down again. I'm not great at playing the markets like some people though.
Hm, I'm in the same spot, right now looks like there could be a retracement, I guess that may need to reconsider the strategy and sell a bit higher just in case I get wrecked. 🤔
I don't play with shorts or longs, so I should be pretty good. I can cancel my trade at anytime or let it ride.
Do you mind helping me figure out how to do it better on the internal market? Lol. I just swap but i want to set up some advanced limit trades!
I just use the advanced tab on the swap page. From there it is basically just set up like Hive-Engine. I'm sure I don't optimize it fully.
The one time I tell my self, "don't miss this pump like last time" I read a post like this. !LOLZ !BBH
lolztoken.com
They were cooked in Greece.
Credit: belhaven14
@edicted, I sent you an $LOLZ on behalf of ironshield.pepe
(1/1)
Farm LOLZ tokens when you Delegate Hive or Hive Tokens.
Click to delegate: 10 - 20 - 50 - 100 HP
I sometimes wish I understood this but if I did I'd probably loose it all gambling.
I sat down the other day and watched orders fly for perpetuals, there are some large market makers possibly working together. It's interesting to watch but a small boat is going to swamped in that ocean.
I was trying to play with the internal market and it kept failing my damn transactions! I was so mad lol. I tried to do limit orders but it wasn’t working as well as a simple swap was. I thankfully did get one order to process and made 2 hive off it.. but damn it’s annoying this better not keep happening when we get these pumps.
If you simply put limit orders to sell or to buy there will be always bots updating offers behind yours, unless the trend kills them all with the limit you placed.
You scared me for a while lol.
You won’t get liquidated on this one. Where can I see the open interest for. BTC?
Bybit has also listed hive/usdt for Margintrading
nver bet against Hive 💪
Here I am! And I haven't been careful enough, I guess 😅 trading is not for me, and I'm learning it the hard way
I have to resist the temptation to liquidate and sell while it's over $0.40... it's not because I don't believe in HIVE, it's because it's a financial impulse, seems like a good idea in this moment.
Which is better (or worse), not selling while it's high and riding the wave back down, or selling while it's "high" only to discover that the rocketship was still yet to come?
!BBH
@edicted! @ironshield likes your content! so I just sent 1 BBH to your account on behalf of @ironshield. (39/100)
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I've been watching hive for quite some days now. They've made some progress and the coin looks bullish.
I base my trading around the funding rate but even better with Hive because I won't sell if it does dump. Its a win win.
There are some additional reasons for the impetus behind crypto pumps shared by Ed Dowd here, for folks with enough savvy to follow the funds rate.
Thanks!
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@danzocal(4/10) tipped @edicted
Well, I won't be complaining if we did see that second Pump!!