Mercury Mondays!

April begins tomorrow and it just so happens we get an interesting astrological event. The dreaded Mercury in retrograde!

Mercury shares its name with the Roman deity responsible for commerce, transportation, travel, and communication.

It is believed by crystals girls that Mercury retrogrades are not a time to be making decisions and trying new things, but rather one of reflection with a defensive stance. We should expect disruptions in communication that lead to needlessly escalated arguments. It is also thought that technology itself can become seemingly possessed and refuse to work during this tenuous period.

This Mercury retrograde, which begins on Monday, April 1, takes place in the sign of Aries. The sign abides by a “leap before you think” approach to life and is known for its impulsive, reactive nature.

lol really?

Yeah it's just funny because I've just been so convinced that April is to be avoided and the halving event is sell-the-news (at least in the ultra short-term). All of this astrological stuff just makes for some fun confirmation bias; the icing on the cake of speculation.

For the next three weeks, we should anticipate lots of impulsive, knee-jerk reactions.

Which is funny because this is exactly what the crystals girls tell you NOT TO DO every time any retrograde happens (not just Aries retrograde). So that's fun: this is like a retrograde x2 of sorts.

Communication breakdowns will result in full-blown temper tantrums.

I'm currently imagining the entire Bitcoin community having a meltdown as BTC continues to go down as we approach the halving event on 4/20 and then continue to dump afterwards. And then to top it all off the retrograde ends on the 24th or 25th which would be a perfect time for one final dump before transitioning into a summer rally.

Even though Mercury retrograde can be a real headache, the calamities are always manageable — especially if you plan in advance. For the next few weeks, be sure to check your messages for embarrassing typos (and be sure they’re addressed to the correct recipients!), cushion your travel itineraries with lots of extra time (delays will be inevitable), back up your most important files to mitigate damage via technological meltdowns, and triple-check the fine print of your contracts. Oh, and block your ex (you’ll thank me later).

Okay sure but isn't that always good advice?

Classic astrologists always telling us what we want to hear.
The cold-reading is real, but perhaps there's at least a little truth to it.
Maybe.

For this particular Mercury retrograde, the most important lesson (and the biggest challenge) is to remain calm. Avoid jumping to conclusions. Or making dramatic accusations. Or burning bridges over petty miscommunications.

Okay nice so when should I freak out, jump to conclusions, and make dramatic accusations with little evidence? There's a good time to do these things? heh. Love it.

Main point being is that the END of April is ALWAYS a safe time to buy into the market. Hitting all time highs in March one month before halving is a HUGE RED FLAG. Being bullish in April is a HUGE RED FLAG. The retrograde is a red flag... kinda. The solar eclipse is also weird.

Solar eclipse April 8th

To top it all off the last full moon we got on March 25 yielded a huge pump out of the consolidation range to where we are now. Is it safe to assume that the upcoming new moon could be an equally large dump? The new moon doubles as a total solar eclipse that will cut across a huge section of America including where I live. Add another weird omen to the list of omens.

The price of Bitcoin is trapped in a wedge that just happens to end tomorrow when retrograde begins. Again, I have to bet short and have actually increased my short position by several magnitudes. I'm now max betting short even though I could get squeezed with the tiniest of pumps. I honestly deserve to get liquidated here, but I don't think I will and I'll be fine if I lose this one. Essentially this is an x100 short when the stop-loss at $72.1k comes into consideration. Wish me luck on that one, eh? YOLO! Currently short $30k on borrowed funds. Looks like I stand to lose $450 if wrong, so one of my bigger bets for sure.

Positions of note:

Should this position get busted tomorrow I'll be waiting until the 7th or 8th to see if I want to continue shorting. The wedge we currently seem to be trading in has a top around $71k and a low of $62k. These two lines come to a point at $65500 and are also reinforced by an "old school" support line.

Where does the purple support line come from?

It's one that was forged during the bottom of the ETF approval dip in Jan and Feb.

Coincidentally this line also crosses $58k on April 8th... so basically if BTC flash crashes to $58k on the April 8th solar eclipse I'll make a huge long bet and hope to make a couple bucks after a predicted bounce.

At the very worst I believe $50k-$52k is the lowest we can possibly go with this amount of institutional adoption. I'll only be worried about wicking down to this level if we are trading around $58k during the halving event and the price looks stable. Then a final dump into that $50k-$52k range would be maximum babyrage from the maximalists who have been overhyping up the event for the last two years.

Conclusion

Expect fuckery. The absolute worst thing that could happen in terms of my current positioning is a quick wick up to burn my position into an immediate dump just like I thought would happen. I figure the chance of something like this is pretty high, and like I said I probably deserve it. x100 is far too much leverage. I need to be taught some hard lessons in the day-trading game. Still, hopefully that resistance buffer up to $72k is strong enough to get me a win. We'll see. Gamble gamble.

I don't trust April in the slightest. Even if I get burned I will continue to hedge my positions and take gains until the halving event is in the review mirror. Mercury retrograde in Aries in combination with a solar eclipse across America (an event that only happens once every decade or two on average)... and the a halving event on literal 4/20. It's all weird. Gonna be a fun time.