You are not the only one with this type of behavior. This is a typical portrait of the average cryptocurrency market participant. By waiting for more "convenient" extremes for buying and selling, you are essentially trying to predict market movements—a mistake. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict peak price levels, and it’s unnecessary.
Change your approach. Don’t try to predict; instead, create a trading plan and allocate your risks wisely. Instead of making one purchase with your entire deposit, divide the allocated amount into 3-4-5 smaller portions. In this case:
- If you buy one portion and the price increases, you sell and make a profit.
- If the price drops, you make the next purchase, and so on.
But the target zones for purchasing should be predetermined (your trading plan). You must know in advance where you’re buying and where you’re selling.
You’re also making a huge mistake by changing your trading plan now. When you say it’s better to have more small trades than fewer large ones, that plan should have been applied during the accumulation phase of the entire crypto market, when assets were being accumulated by large holders. On HIVE, the accumulation zone is clearly visible from 2022 to 2024.
Now the participation phase is starting, where assets leave their accumulation zones—almost always sharply and by a large percentage. If you sell everything now, you might not be able to buy back at a lower price. Instead, you could end up buying back at a much higher price due to FOMO (and the psychological cycle repeats).
Don’t pay attention; this is just an opinion, not financial advice...
I am normally laddered into the market and have done this quite successfully over the years, but I am still setting buybacks too low, looking for a bit of extra gain. For instance on Hive, I moved my buys down, as I thought it would dip further. If I hadn't, I would have reclaimed about 100% of my sells at a 305 discount and then had a chance to sell another 60% up again. Instead, I bought nothing, so sold nothing. It is a double sting, and will compound.
I have been accumulating :)
Such a short phrase speaks volumes about the person who wrote it. 😊
On the other hand, you now realize that you didn’t buy at lower prices. But if the price had dropped and you hadn’t placed buy orders there, you would regret it even more while sitting in a drawdown on your deposit since you would have bought at higher prices.
Your approach is quite reasonable and rational, and there’s no need to regret trying to buy lower. The market cannot be predicted... If BTC crashes by 40% tomorrow, HIVE will return to the $0.2 zone, and you’ll have the chance to buy more. Meanwhile, those chasing FOMO and neglecting risk management will be stuck in a drawdown, selling at minimum prices while trying to buy back even lower.