I finally did it, or rather didn't do it and that's what's so great!
Let me explain, yesterday I woke up thinking that I was going to sell a bit of Hive and get some Sol and a couple of other alt coins that I've had my eye on for a little while. However after seeing my daughter's snotty nose after she woke up, it was obvious that she shouldn't go to school.
So my morning was somewhat disrupted and I decided to concentrate on trying to get either Blender or Lightworks working, as I'm trying to get back into making chess videos and both of those bits of software are bugging out on me.
Luckily for me, I couldn't actually sort out either problem (video lag problems with Blender and audio cutout problems with Lightworks) so I found myself lost in forums and manuals for a few hours and I clean forgot to do any crypto trading. Which now I'm really chuffed about because I woke up to the lovely @whatsup's tweet showing me that Hive had gone above $2, which as far as I know is the first time it has ever done that!
Rise Of The Anti Soros
It's funny because yesterday as I took a break from my computer to wash the dog and detangle and cut his fur, I started thinking about a Hive article I could possibly write.
As I mentioned I was also thinking about doing a bit of alt coin trading, and I thought perhaps I'd combine the two, trade some coins and then write about it.
I realised that I'm probably not the best person to get advice from when it comes to crypto. I mean, I've had some successes and I predicted the 2016 Bitcoin rise over $1000 and spotted a few other gems.
The problem was that I seemed to have an uncanny knack for buying coins just before they tanked and selling them just before they mooned.
I'm the guy who sold Bitcoin (albeit unwillingly) at $1800 and a few weeks later it was at $18,000.
I'm also the guy who bought Binance coin because I thought it would do well, seeing as the exchange were offering no-fee trading with it. I bought at $1, then sold after they hit $14. I did this because another alt had caught my eye.
I can't even remember the name of that alt and Binance coin the last time I checked was around $600 (please don't tell me in the comments if it's more, I don't think I can take it.)
All of this got me thinking about a term I heard once, about a city investor the papers called the anti Soros, in reference to the billionaire financier George Soros because everything the guy touched turned to shit. I thought maybe I should write a trading blog advising people that they should probably do the exact opposite of what I do.
ADHD Trading
I am in the process of getting a diagnosis for adult Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD) and as I write above about my trading history, I realise this is exactly how an person with ADD would trade.
Right now as I write this, I'm desperately trying to remember the name of a coin that I had my eye on, I know it's going to go well and will make me kick myself if I don't buy it...
Anyways, yesterday my ADD saved me, because had I carried out what I was going to do, I was going to sell somewhere between a quarter to half my Hive holding so that I could convert, but as usual, something else got my attention, but this time it was a good thing!
Keep It Pumping
Of course we've all been here before, first on our original chain of Steem and now on Hive we see this succession of pump n dumps. The difference is, before today the pumps had usually taken Hive to around a dollar before dumping back down, this is the first time I've seen it get to two bucks.
The problem I face is what to do now. Should I still convert a bit before it falls back down to under a dollar? Or should I sit on it and wait for it to rise some more? Like I said I have a long history of making the perfectly wrong decision at the right time, so whatever I do, I'll tell you about it and you guys can do the opposite!
It looks like we're going to have a bunch of snow dumped on us here in the UK, but the Hive rise should keep us warm.
Happy days and keep it pumping people!
HOW ABOUT YOU; WHAT DOES YOUR TRADING HISTORY LOOK LIKE? ARE YOU A CRYPTO MILLIONAIRE FROM A STRING OF GREAT DECISIONS? OR ARE YOU LIKE ME, ALWAYS BUYING OR SELLING AT THE WRONG TIME?
ALSO WHAT DO YOU THINK HIVE IS GOING TO DO; ARE WE GOING TO THE MOON OR WILL WE FALL BACK TO OUR USUAL LEVELS?
AS EVER, LET ME KNOW BELOW!
Cryptogee
LOL! Sounds like me, but I sold $BTC at $800 (April 2017) before that first big jump to over $19,000 in December. And, $DOGE (that I had held for years) at 0.0035 before the 0.68 moon :-( So, if you hear me say that $HIVE is going higher...DUMP IT!
Lolz! I shall pay very close attention to your utterances. :)
Cg
Hey Crypt.
There's a huge difference between trading and investing. If you will recall, years ago I explained that most crypto traders engaged in "technical analysis" and that, in doing so, they were engaging in self-fulfilling prophecies. That is, if a large number of traders employ the same (or similar) technicals indicators, they can collectively cause the very movements that their indicators are supposedly predicting.
We have now (finally) arrived at a point where at least some cryptos can be judged upon fundamentals (or quasi-fundamentals for lack of better word). Over the past week, the price of Hive went from $0.99 to $3.36 to $2.05 (at the time of this writing). Did something about the blockchain's fundamentals change over the past 7 days? When I logged into Hive yesterday (Thanksgiving) to say "Hi" to a few old friends, I was surprised to learn that Hive was trading at $1.69! "What gives?" So, as an ex-hedge manager, the first thing I did was look up some basic stats.
https://ecency.com/hive-133987/@penguinpablo/daily-hive-stats-report-friday-november-26-2021
Take a look at "3. Daily Accounts transacting." Over a period of months, the activity level has increased from about 12,000 to about 14,000. That's a positive ... but does it constitute a fundamental change in the blockchain's condition?
Look at the next stat: "4. Posts + Comments per post." Is this the kind of activity that justifies a legitimate tripling of Hive's price?
Amazon's price has skyrocketed because it's selling a LOT of stuff online. Tesla's selling a ton of electric cars. Hive's primary raison d'etre is the production of social media content. Is there any evidence that it is producing more social media content or gaining more social media users?
No, there isn't.
Sustainable price increases require sustainable increases in underlying activity. Hype, hoopla and hyperbole created but fleeting effects. I'd love to see Hive hit $20 but until the fundamentals change, this pump is likely to be as lasting as the last dozen.
Quill
First of all, great to hear from you again Quill! Recently I went onto your page and saw you hadn't been around for some time, so yeah, good to see you back.
I think the pump is based around the Hive NFTs and the success of the Hive Punks. NFTs are taking off mainly because people enjoy collecting, and they are more interesting than just accumulating coins.
Also NFTs have had a lot of favourable press much more so than crypto in the early years, that along with celebrity endorsements seems to have really boosted the market.
With that in mind people are realising that it is more costly to obtain NFTs and also that they are not equal. Minting an NFT on Ethereum could cost hundreds of dollars, on Solana maybe twenty and on Tezos or Hive, maybe five bucks.
This is where I think Hive has started to gain traction, I wouldn't be surprised if most newbies investing in Hive do not know, or care about the blogging side of it, they just want to obtain NFTs for affordable amounts of money, which they can potentially sell for a profit in the future.
Lastly you made the point about Amazon et. al. being worth more money because they are selling more product, however you forget that we see companies rise in share price on pure speculation all the time. This happens both legitimately and fraudulently.
Look at the company Nikola, they were able to raise billions of dollars and had were valued at $32 billion dollars, even though they had sold exactly zero vehicles. In the same year Ford sold over 100 million vehicles and were valued at $29 billion.
At the end of the day Hive has a chance as long as the NFT market is evolving, after that it will hinge on the next thing to take the imagination. I've always seen that thing as gaming, it's so big and the potential is there for the first blockchain to realise this and come up with a killer game that both uses and generates crypto or NFTs in some way.
Anyway like I say, good to see you again old chap!
Cg
Hey Crypt.
Good to hear from you too. I miss you bastards. Respecting NFTs in general, I hope you're right ... I've got a big NFT project planned. Respecting Hive's NFTs specifically, keep in mind:
1.) Ethereum is close to transitionning to Proof of Stake (Casper) meaning that their high gas fees are about to disappear;
2.) Solana has already dramatically decreased the price of minting;
3.) FTX.US has joined the fray with near-zero minting costs;
4.) Coinbase is scheduled to launch their NFT platform within weeks and, again, with minting costs at or close to zero. Within days of announcing their future NFT marketplace launch (end of 2021), 2.5 million people signed-up on their waiting list.
Each of these entities have marketing budgets in the billions ... and they're using them. FTX.US has signed Tom Brady (football), Stephen Curry (basketball) and Shohei Ohtani (baseball) as athletic endorsers. They've also bought the naming rights (for 19 years) for the stadium in which the Miami Heat play. And, they'll be running a Super Bowl commercial in a couple of months. Plus, they've already listed Solana NFTs on their exchange and Ethereum listings are about to occur any day. And, they're making money hand-over-fist from their primary business activity (as a crypto trading exchange). And, while they have their own internal coin (FTT, ranked #31 with a market cap of $6.8 billion), they also have a substantial holding in Solona (SOL, ranked #5 with a market cap of $60.6 billion), arguably the hottest coin in existence.
This is to say nothing of the dozen other Top 50 platforms that are fighting fiercely for a piece of the action. Can Hive compete against any of this?
As I've argued for years, most crypto projects are run by 20- and 30-year old computer nerds who, while possessing brilliance about computer code, seem utterly bereft in their understanding of GENETIC code. What they can't seem to grasp is that the technology means NOTHING if you can't get people interested in using it. Their strategy has been, and still is, "Build It And They Will Come." It ought to be clear by now that this is an un-realistic strategy. And yet, it persists.
While Hive possesses all the pieces of the puzzle, its Achilles Heel is its inability to "Concentrate Force at the Decisive Point." Why? Because everyone is pimping their own project and the ability to coalesce around a common goal is all but non-existent. The downside of decentralization.
https://www.voice.com/creation/100000001001486
Quill
We are pumping and not stopping :)
Whoop whoop, let's go!!!
Cg
Experiences is valuable and I’m sure your judgment Skills have improved because is this
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Experiences are valuable, though the problem has never been my judgement (mostly), it's my attention. I'm the crypto moth getting attracted by any bright flame I happen to fly by.
Cg
energy flows where attention goes!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Indeed! And we have a lot of positive energy flowing towards Hive at the moment :)
Cg
I'm no investor and my $HIVE is all powered up, so I can't profit immediately, but I'm happy to see this. It will make more people aware of what we have going on. Will just have to see if it can last. If it goes down to $1.50 I will be happy enough if it can stay at least that.
!PIZZA
Yeah for ages it seemed as if $1 was the ceiling, now let's hope $1.50 is the floor :)
Cg
Was a lovely pump, and it's still looking a bit strong.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Let's keep it going!! :)))
Cg
I've never managed to sell at the exact high, but a profit is a profit, so don't kick yourself! I found that the most effective trading is to hodl part and trade part.... This lets you build and diversify, while still keeping some of each.
True, got to keep some back for FOMO purposes :)
Cg
Ahhhh what a lovely story on how I think all of our crypto journeys go hahahaha. Buying good oppertunities and selling way too early. Maybe that hits the arse even more than not buying at all. BUT......this time you nailed it and kept it going strong and heck...lookat us now benefitting from all of these things.
Super cool and cool to see a bit from ya again. Hope all is well there on the other side of the channel!
Hey karin! Good to hear from you :) Yes it's nice to have a good story for once! Hopefully it is the start of a meteoric rise to the top.
Go Hive!
Cg
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