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How much will Arsenal miss Saliba against Liverpool?
Alex Keble looks at how Mikel Arteta's side will cope without key defender for Sunday's huge match
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Alex Keble looks at how Mikel Arteta's side will cope without key defender for Sunday's huge match
#newsonleo #sports #epl #football
Arsenal's 2-0 defeat at AFC Bournemouth has ramped up pressure on Mikel Arteta's side, ahead of their big Premier League clash with leaders Liverpool on Sunday.
They could hardly have picked a worse time to find out what their defence could look like without William Saliba, who is suspended following his sending-off at Bournemouth.
Saliba was ever-present in the Premier League, UEFA Champions League and FA Cup last season, only being rested for two EFL Cup fixtures.
His absence is therefore a new challenge for Mikel Arteta – and one without an obvious solution.
Arsenal have other problems, too. Riccardo Calafiori is also a doubt to face Liverpool after he suffered an injury against Shakhtar Donetsk, while winger Bukayo Saka is "unlikely" to be fit to play, according to Arteta.
But it is Saliba's absence that looks to be the biggest issue to resolve.
It is notoriously difficult to capture the value of central defenders in statistics, but there are two key metrics in which Saliba clearly excels.
First, Saliba has the best success rate for tackles on dribblers in the Premier League this season, with 90 per cent.
In other words, when players try to run past Saliba, they are almost always stopped. His one-on-one defending isn’t just elite. It’s the best in the country.
What’s more, he has attempted 21 tackles, completing 12, both more than any other Arsenal player, again highlighting his unusual aggression. For comparison, his fellow centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes has attempted only six tackles.
Saliba is brilliant at ball recoveries
Another stat to note is the number of loose balls Saliba recovers for his team.
Although he has only registered 14 so far in 2024/25, he made 213 recoveries in 2023/24 - more than any other Premier League centre-back and eighth among all players.
A reason why Saliba's recoveries have reduced this season could be Arsenal's recent red cards, which have forced the team to sit deeper, leading to a compressed pitch and fewer loose balls. Their possession average has dropped from 58.2 per cent last season to 49.1 per cent this campaign.
But if we put together his recoveries stat from last season and his tackling success in this campaign, we get the picture of an elegant but formidable centre-back who sweeps up possession and wins the one-on-ones.
These are two traits Arsenal need against Liverpool’s direct runners.
Arsenal’s record without Saliba isn’t strong
There isn’t enough evidence to say whether or not Arsenal can cope without Saliba, although scar tissue from 2022/23 will leave their supporters nervous.
Saliba didn’t miss a single minute of Premier League football last season but the season before that, Arsenal’s title challenge collapsed after the Frenchman suffered a season-ending injury in March.
They picked up just 18 points (W5, D3, L3) from the final 11 matches of the campaign - and the problem was clearly in defence.
Arsenal kept just two clean sheets in that run, conceding at least twice in five matches, while their attacking output remained consistent.
Arsenal with/without Saliba in 2022/23
Of course, a lot has changed since 2022/23. Arsenal are a considerably more accomplished team and they boast a much deeper squad.
Indeed, of the six Saliba-less matches that Arsenal failed to win, Rob Holding was the centre-back paired with Gabriel. They have better options these days.
Potential replacements for Saliba
Analysis of the last 18 months suggests Arteta will pick one of two options to replace Saliba: either Jakub Kiwior will come in as a like-for-like replacement or Jurrien Timber, if he is fit to return from injury, will come into the side and Ben White will shuffle across.
Kiwior was brought on to fill the gap at Bournemouth and given he is the only other natural centre-back in the Arsenal squad, there is sound logic in starting the Poland international.
However, Kiwior will need to perform better than he did in that game.
These two images from the first half show how he rashly came across to cover for right-back White and was beaten by Antoine Semenyo, leading to a good chance for Evanilson.
In the second-half incident depicted below, he lost a 50-50 with Dango Ouattara and, then out of position, was unable to stop a cross that Semenyo should have converted.
It is telling that these errors were about deficiencies in aggression and one-on-one defending: the two attributes most associated with Saliba and most needed against Liverpool.
White is only an option if Timber is passed fit
White might be the better choice, not least because he is more experienced in this team.
He replaced Gabriel at centre-back for the first three Premier League matches of 2023/24, and although Arsenal only collected seven points, dropping two in a 2-2 draw with Fulham, their total xG conceded across those matches was only 2.8.
That’s an average of just over 0.9 xG against per match; a slight improvement on their average of 1.0 xG against per match with Saliba in 2023/24.
White’s recovery pace is also a potential advantage given the speed in Liverpool’s attack.
Taking into account last season's data, White has recorded a higher top speed than Kiwior.
How Liverpool could capitalise
Nevertheless, this does not make White an obviously better choice over Kiwior.
For starters, despite his performance against Bournemouth, Kiwior won 73.7 per cent of his tackles against dribblers in 2023/24, compared with White’s 44.8 per cent. On this metric, at least, Kiwior is more Saliba-like.
What’s more, White is only a viable option if Timber recovers from injury in time or, less likely, if Arteta is willing to start Thomas Partey at right-back.
The decision is not an easy one. Whichever choice Arteta makes, there is little doubt Arsenal will be worse off without Saliba.
That gives Liverpool an advantage – and it’s one Arne Slot can seize by packing the front line with runners.
Rather than play Cody Gakpo up front, Slot may give a rare start to Darwin Nunez, an agent of chaos whose probing runs on the shoulder of the last defender could pick holes in a defence missing its main tackler.
Alternatively, Luis Diaz returning to the left could drag Kiwior or White out of position, as we saw against Bournemouth, in turn creating room for Diogo Jota; a nuisance of a No 9 who should find pockets of space away from Gabriel.
Those are just two ideas. Liverpool, unlike injury-hit Arsenal, have plenty of good options in all areas of their team.