A week for topping up on uranium and adding to nuclear power tech and fuel. A few adds in copper and silver.
Portfolio News
In a week where S&P 500 dropped 0.39% and Europe rose 0.19%, my pension portfolio rose 0.18%. Drags were resource stocks in Australia (other than De Grey Mining (DEG.AX) up 3% after completing the retail capital raise), Canadian marijuana stocks, lithium stocks in US and Australia. Doing the lifting were Japan (only 3 stocks down) and alternate energy in US
Big movers of the week were AXP Energy (AXP.AX) (100%), NeuRizer (NRZ.AX) (100%), NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE) (45.5%), Blue Star Helium (BNL.AX): (37.5%), SunPower Corporation (SPWR) (14.4%), Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) (13.3%), NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) (12.2%), APM Human Services International (APM.AX) (12.1%), Derichebourg (DBG.PA) (10.6%), Titan Minerals (TTM.AX) (10%)
A slow week with only 10 big movers. Top two are penny stocks on ASX moving without any news flow - not hard to make 100% when price is $0.001 or $0.002. One big theme with two nuclear SMR builders to add to the one solar company in alternate energy. One old line energy play in oil. Good to see two of the stocks on the list were purchases in the week.
Markets had a nervous week with below expected earnings from Salesforce (CRM) and economic numbers which suggest inflation may stay high. Feels like a rocky few weeks until June quarter end comes along
This week’s downturn has been fueled by a range of factors, including earnings and stronger-than-expected economic data. Bonds have taken a particular hit as concerns about inflation mount and after a weak Treasury auction on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since late April.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/investing/dow-jones-down-markets-explainer/index.html
Crypto Drifts
Bitcoin price tested $70k again failing to hold ending he week 0.4% up with a peak to trough range of 5.5%
Ethereum price pushed higher for 2 bars only (not even one day) ending the week 3.4% lower with a peak to trough range of 7% - $4k is beckoning. That will come when the ETF inflows begin.
Something ugly breaking on NEM token (XEMUSD) with 18% drop in the last 4 hour bar of the week - and still dropping.
Something similar going on with Waves (WAVESBTC)
Chiliz (CHZBTC) did make a move upwards - about the only token to do so
Did find the problem with Waves and NEM - Binance delisting them from June 17 - can be withdrawn until Sept 17.
Uranium Holdings
Uranium holdings increased to 13.2% of portfolio with the additions noted below and small drops in value of portfolios overall. There was a modest 0.7% increase in value of the uranium holdings
Mix of holdings saw some changes with enCore Energy (EU) changing places with IsoEnergy (ISO.V), Kazatomprom (KAP.IL) going up 3 places pushing Energy Fuels (UUUU) and Paladin (PDN.AX) down one each. YellowCake plc (YCA.L) comes into the top 15 and displaces Cameco (CCJ). Share of others goes up a small percentage based on additions there.
With overall percentage at 13.2% of holdings that feels like a good allocation. Will now start to tidy up holdings as prices begin to hit 52 week highs - time to reduce the Others list to a more manageable list. Plan is to get the others down to 20% - note this does not account for options trades.
Open options trades are mostly some way away from their targets. One that is close is Global X Uranium (URA) which is a 29/33/26 call spread risk reversal. Price has tested the sold call (33) a few times. Pretty sure it will pass that before July expiry
Time to consider a replacement trade. Challenge always is to find a price scenario. The parallel channel is not holding. Have overlaid an Elliott Wave from the last consolidation in mid 2023. Cloning that across to the Q1 2024 consolidation, suggests price could reach $40 before the end of 2024.
Bought
Went through the weekly Uranium Insider report - with the pull back in prices a few buy opportunities are open. Added these to pension portfolio - thinking is to increase the allocation to 12% (or even 15%) - currently close to that after these trades at 11.9%
F3 Uranium Corp (FUU.V): Uranium. Scaled into holding in pension portfolio at a slightly lower price than the last two purchases. Athabasca Basin ISR potential
Global Atomic Corporation (GLO.TO): Uranium. Indications are that financing discussions for Dasa mine are progressing reducing some of the risks - Niger sovereign risk and mining risk are still at play. Averages down entry price appreciably.
Yellow Cake plc (YCA.L): Uranium. Averaged down entry price in a down start to the week - two trades in the week as spot prices slide a bit. Yellow Cake has fallen in the week more the Sprott Physical Uranium (U-UN.TO)
JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom (KAP.IL): Uranium. Scaled into holding at price slightly higher than the week before. As soon as demand for the uranium ETF's rises, the funds have to buy the leaders.
Titan Minerals Limited (TTM.AX): Gold/Silver/Copper Exploration. Newsletter from Next Investors highlighting their investment in this ASX listed explorer operating in Ecuador.
What attracted my attention was the JV being set up with Hancock Prospecting on the Linderos copper project. The JV brings funding for the copper project to add to the recently completed capital raise. Markets are beginning to talk of a major short fall in copper availability as the shift to clean electrification picks up
+2km diameter porphyry copper footprint recognised by geophysics, surface geochemistry, mapping and confirmed by diamond drilling
What is possibly being undervalued by markets is the Dynasty gold/silver project with a defined JORC
Significant high-grade component of 17Mt @ 3.8 g/t Au, 24g/t Ag for a contained 2.1 Moz gold and 13 Moz silver
The JV deal includes a $2 million payment to TTM - that boosts their cash reserves to fund the feasibility work on Dynasty. Added a small holding to personal portfolio in an options type play. Now I am wary of front running by newsletter investors like Next Investors - hence the small parcel start.
Mithril Resources (MTH.AX): Silver Mining. Added to holding in this Mexico silver explorer bought last week at 21% lower price - maybe there was a little front-running being done by Next Investors.
Boss Energy (BOE.AX): Uranium. Added a parcel of shares in pension portfolio with a view that market over reacted to sales of shares by CEO and Chairman and one other director
Boss Energy advises that Managing Director & CEO Duncan Craib, Chairman Wyatt Buck and Director Bryn Jones have sold a portion of their respective shareholdings on market.
Market reaction was to knock share price down 10% on the day of the announcement. The chat on Twitter was all about - sinking ship. A detail reading of the change of director's interesst notices indicates the CEO exercised options and then sold those shares plus a large tranche of the main holding. He still holds 741,673 shares plus a swag of options and performance rights (not yet vested). Going to guess there was a large capital gains tax bill to be paid on the options. In Australia capital gains is levied on options when they vest but only on sales of shares.
American Airlines Group (AAL): Airlines. American Airlines cut guidance in results announcement - market dumped price by 13.5% (May 29). Added a small parcel to average down entry price figuring another market over-reaction.
Lightbridge Corporation (LTBR): Nuclear Fuel. Deployed some of profits from NuScale (SMR) options trade last week into this nuclear fuels producer - averages down entry price. Also added to holding in managed portfolio. This is going to be a game of patience with 2 challenges
- Persuade conservative, risk averse utilities to adopt the new fuel
- Be ready to sell fule to the new reactoers as they gt planned. Best line up a good sales force.
NANO Nuclear Energy Inc (NNE) : Nuclear Technology. Bought a small parcel in the new listing of US company developing microreactors.
NANO Nuclear believes that it is the first U.S. publicly listed company focusing on the design and development of portable, nuclear microreactors. NANO Nuclear is seeking to become diversified and vertically integrated with multiple potential streams of revenue, including microreactor development, nuclear fuel fabrication and nuclear fuel transportation.
Ingenia Communities Group (INA.AX): Property. Read an Intelligent Investor article about Lifestyle Communities and the challenge of understanding their financials. They progressively are required to revalue property values and add these in as revenue adjustments - hard to say what is profit from business operations or not. We have a house on one such community run by Ingenia - the business is more wide ranging than doing liefestyle communities as they also run holiday parks. Bought a parcel of shares - as a shareholder will get more access to information than as a resident. What I do know is site feees have gone up in 2024 more than inflation (by double)
The chart shows the dual impact on share price of interest rate rises and inflation. A large slice of the business is active in property development building villages like ours. Inflation and material supply and staff supply has been a big challenge. Those pressures will start to ease in 2025 - price may go back to where it came from. Dividend yield 2.3%
Ur-Energy Inc (URG): Uranium. Averaged down entry price in managed portfolio to add to previous week's holding.
Sold
ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A. (EMC.MC): Paper Products. Assigned early on covered call in personal portfolio for 7.9% blended profit since October 2023/May 2024. Somehow have been selling more calls than stock held. The May tranche was a catchup. Stock screen idea.
ASX Portfolio
No trades
Hedging Trades
Bayhorse Silver Inc (BHS.V): Silver Mining. Scaled into holding in pension portfolio as price pulls back to the 50 day moving average.
Chart shows that and also the huge gap behind the silver price - the challenge in investing in mining exploration is being patient waiting for the lag to close.
Cryptocurrency
Enjin (ENJBTC). Price has reversed after long downtrend - 68% down from the last entry. Chart seems to indicate moving averages are swaping over.
Build Web3 games with confidence. The world's most advanced Web3 gaming ecosystem. Built on Enjin, powered by Substrate.
Holo (HOTETH). Price has dropped down to the support level from late 2023.
Trade is looking for the reversal to be confirmed and averages down last entry. Chart shows that this has been a profitable coin with two entries and exits showing. Note: purchase was made using Ethereum - that captures the ETH rise in value. Exit will be to Bitcoin, not ETH.
Holo is a peer-to-peer distributed platform for hosting decentralized applications built using Holochain, a framework for developing DApps that does not require the use of blockchain technology.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/holo/
Injective (INJBTC): Price has been consolidating about the level of the exit made two trades back (left red ray). Time to exlore for another run the where the last exit was (top red ray).
Purchase also made selling ETH - chart shows computed entry in BTC
Injective is a layer 1 blockchain that powers Web3 applications for finance, such as orderbook exchange, DeFi, NFT marketplace and more.
Income Trades
Covered Calls
Quiet week with only 4 covered calls written in two portfolios (Europe 1 US 3). Am focusing on getting the 1% premium and writing calls at profitable exits.
Fiverr International (FVRR): Internet Services. With stock trading above $25 periodically, covered call runs risk of going to assignment and triggering a massive capital loss. Bought back the covered call for 33.7% profit - easy work for 2 weeks hold time. Am short put options at same strike - profits may be needed to buy those back.
Naked Puts
Fiverr International (FVRR): Internet Services. Price has traded in a range from $24.26 to $26.27 all week. Do not want to run the risk of being assigned early on 25 strike put options. Bought back half the sold puts for 64% profit in the same two weeks as the calls. Reduces the return if these do expire out-the-money to 1.6%. Exercise risk is now under control.
NuScale Power Corporation (SMR): Nuclear Technology. With price opening at $8.81 and trading higher (May 28) bought back 7 strike sold put for 445% profit since April 2024. Normally would let these run to expiry but price is volatile and exercise risk was large.
Added a few naked puts on stocks happy to enter at lower prices
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): US Semiconductors. Return 0.85% Coverage 12.9%
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU): Uranium Enrichment. Return 0.75% Coverage 26%
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU): Uranium Enrichment. Return 2% Coverage 12%
Lightbridge Corporation (LTBR): Nuclear Fuel. Return 6% Coverage 13.6%
Added naked puts on stocks where covered calls are possibly going to assignement.
JinkoSolar Holding Co (JKS): Solar Power. Return 6.5% Coverage -0.3% in-the-money
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR.L): Aerospace/Defense. Return 2.06% Coverage 0.2%
Credit Spreads
No new spreads
Exercise risk on the portfolio is within margin limits. Pension portfolio has two naked puts that could be kicked down the road this coming week.
Resources
Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
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May 27- 31, 2024
I’m actually feeling bullish about BTC
I don’t know why though…
Enjin going down 68% is really crazy. It’s almost close to what happened to Luna then. I hope it recovers
#hive #posh