Speculations on bitcoin are all over the place. Well, actually, most people are clustering pretty close together. $100k by the end of 2024, and about $300k - $350k in 2025.
But, what is really driving speculators nuts is that bitcoin isn't really moving. So, when bull run?
We have institutions buying Huge amounts of bitcoin, and the price barely cares. So much so that people are coming up with theories like coinbase selling bitcoinIOUs to BlackRock. (The theory would be more plausible if coinbase was selling customer's bitcoin to BlackRock, and putting the IOUs in the customer's accounts)
So what is really happening with bitcoin? What can we expect?
Expect Lots Of Manipulation
The bitcoin ETFs were created to manipulate the market.
Here we have a huge pile of bitcoins and cash that we can dump on the market, or suck up the market.
So, we are going to see a lot more waves as bitcoin's price rises.
And if you aren't expecting manipulation, you haven't followed any ETF news, like ever.
GATA has been trying to get the SEC to crack down on the gold ETF, even handing over several smoking guns, and nothing… (to put this into perspective, if you could sell just before the COMEX opens, and buy just before the COMEX closed, you would, 99% of the time, make money. Nothing goes that way, every day, all the time, unless it is manipulation.)
Expect the Manipulators To Be Caught With Their Pants Down
Bitcoin's price is not as manipulatable as the manipulators would like.
Also, it has a propensity to make moves, in a day, above 10%. And, ETFs have circuit breakers.
Imagine bitcoin going from $70k to $80k in a day, but inside the ETF, your "bitcoin" is only worth 73.333k because of how the ETF works. A lot of people are going to be very upset with how the ETF functions, and there will be a lot of people who say, i should have just bought bitcoin. And many will do just that.
Bitcoin will destroy the people trying to manipulate it by being even more volatile than they could ever manage.
AND THEN!
No one wants to sell bitcoin. Or, everyone decides to avoid the big exchanges where the ETFs get their coins. And bitcoin goes no ask. More people want to buy into the ETF, and there is none available at that price. And probably none available at any near by higher price.
What will the ETFs do then? First, they will probably lie. Which will leave them owing more bitcoin then exists, and then they will try to pay everyone in cash when the bitcoin price is several times what is being offered.
The ETFs are going to get such a huge black eye. And this will be the beginning of the end for them.
My speculation
I believe we will see a really big crash in the market before bitcoin goes off to 100k. (i might be wrong on the timing, and it comes early next year. So, up to 100k, and then sideways, then crash, then back up)
The crash in bitcoin will be over really fast. Whales are now poised to buy it up.
However, you can pick up lots of other cryptos for really cheap. So cheap, that i expect there to be a crash in many other markets that sucks lots of money out, or some other explanation that means an overall monetary crash.
So, big crash, then up and up and up.
We may see a break in the four year cycle of bitcoin. Well, it will either be this time, or in four more years. When yacht and Lambo buyers just switch to storing money in bitcoin.
Every other market, bond, stock, banks are going to be shown to be unsafe, then the money really starts flowing into any safe place. The problem is, there isn't much gold, and there isn't much bitcoin for sale.
Something big is coming, or probably many big things are coming. So, i expect that bitcoin will never be under $100k ever again.
All that i am sure of is that the ETFs are going to get busted. They should never have attempted to handle something so hot as bitcoin.
What are the ramifications after that? It gets really hard to tell.
When the price of houses are dropping because of lack of buyers, and bitcoin is going up. What is bitcoin/house? It was 100s, it is now 20s, soon 1s? And how do you take that number? What does it mean?
It will be even worse when we actually start seeing real (you ain't seen nothin yet) inflation in the dollar.
This makes future predictions fairly meaningless.
Bitcoin goes over $100M per bitcoin!
(based on one person trading a huge pile of cash for a 100,000 satoshis. No one really has $100M to trade, and we also may be saying then, no one has a full bitcoin to trade)
Geeze, the way i am talking, one would expect that i believe the bull run is already over and we are waiting for the next halving.
I do agree that Bitcoin is too hot to handle for them to do these ETF products. It is strange in some respects because certain things don't look that positive but then other things like today thing are coming back to life and that sense of FOMO hits. Arthur Hayes put in a short position previously for BTC to go to 50K which I never try to short or bet against this stuff like that.
Also with all these black swan events that seem to happen once a month it does get confusing how explosive this stuff could get.
A lot of people are looking at the election as an indicator for sure but when you look at the Google trends for search terms like Bitcoin it doesn't look good. Also a lot of the volumes on the alts haven't been impressive but we are seeing some signs of life. Also there is the fact that people are out of money essentially and the layoffs will continue to ramp up so all that is hard to factor in. Really hard to say overall and we are all fighting to not be all gums after getting our teeth kicked in by inflation.
Could you imagine bitcoin going to $10k, but buying more?
It is possible if the derivatives market just vaporizes with all that electronic dollars.
In the great depression there were hella good deals, but no one had money to buy them
I have thought of those scenarios as well and it is a big worry that if someone can't be dominating the competition in whatever industry and be in the upper 0.5% they get sucked down with the economy and don't have money to buy when those deals are there.
Timeframes are tough but at some point people can't keep up with all the forced insurance and property tax and inflated goods. Then things lock up hard stuff unravels. Everyone is sprinting at redline blowing all their NOS not knowing where the finish line is.
The lie is not so easy with a transparent blockchain ledgering the truth.
We are hoping so. But, the ETF can lie by saying, there is only 10,000 investors, when there are really 20,000
My feeling is that regulators will insist that investors are accounted for and the blockchain will verify if they can back the investments. So long as they buy a coin when someone wants one on the ETF then all is fine. The liquidity of it all will tone down the greed factor as much as Wall St. ever could. It will allow an avenue for the new investor to Bitcoin and need not be seen as a negative thing. The motivations of gaining SEC approval might be more of a Hail Mary Pass with that 30+ Trillion Dollar Debt to themselves more than anything else.
My feeling is that there are many on the race to power in the USA which can see the US gain some of its financial clout by going the route of El Salvador by making Bitcoin legal tender.
Blackrock doesn't need to manipulate the price of Bitcoin.
If anything they want to manipulate it up so they are raking more USD from the ETF.
Also I'm suddenly remembering last year when everyone was talking about Uptober.
We had a banking crisis.
Bitcoin "crashed" to $20k.
Then it spiked to $28k before the end of the month which pretty much proved the bear market was over.
Uptober is one of those events that can't be countertraded.
No matter how many people believe in it.
It's one of those weird events that tends to happen anyway.
I believe you. You are usually much better at short term trend understanding than i.
I just get to see the big points in a nebulous timeline.
How much of the American dollar can actually vaporize? That is a question i have for determining actual price. If all of the derivatives move into crypto, the market cap gets huge. But, i feel the bridge, or doorway into crypto is not big enough, and all that funny money goes poof.
Then what?
We are left with paper dollars?
I think you're right you're just early to the party.
There's a time to harvest the BTC ETFs and illegally manipulate everything.
But that time is not now right out of the gate.
Now is the time for legitimate marketing on a literal record-breaking ETF asset.
It might even take a full cycle; like 5 years from now before they really start fucking around.
These people make plans and carry them out over decades after all.