Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Tuesday, September 27th I'm pretty courageous to Wall Street unplugged pockets. We're big the hell it's and Tell you what's really moving these markets It's been terrible the markets last week was horrible Monday as well a little bit before that It's getting wrecked so it's nice to walk in and see the markets of about two three hundred Points on a Dow today around 1% across the board nice to see green sometimes and There's a reason for that especially for today We're you seeing a lot of people starting to come out not a lot but big names are coming out saying listen The feds getting a little crazy here They get nuts with these 75 base point hikes. I Mean, it's not just one. It's not just two. It's not just three. It's probably gonna be four now Which is insane. We've never seen that (1/33)
we've never seen at this level. I mean you can say 40 years in 80s I mean we brought the Fed funds rate. We increased it. We doubled it right now We're coming from zero which is I'm president to all the way through four and a quarter by year end which is expected and We're seeing mortgage rates starting to push 7% now And it's getting scary because you're starting to hear from the businesses starting here from the sectors In Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans said he's nervous about the feds going too far too fast I don't think there's another Fed member that I've seen That wasn't 100% We don't see any signs inflation moderating Going all-in. I don't care much pain you see. I mean, this is the first Fed member non-voting so nothing matters But it's making headlines So he's nervous meaning that with the Fed raising raised by 75 basis points in three consecutive meetings About to raise by another hundred basis points by year, and he's saying it could be very dangerous given (2/33)
that We're not allowing The time To pass through from these current massive rate increases We need them to filter through the system and we're not even giving them a chance because it's every meeting It's almost every single month 75 basis point like 75 basis points. I mean 25 basis point like filters through the system. It takes three six sometimes nine months We haven't even seen the last 35 basis point maybe even the one before that It's getting scary now because you say well, we're not in a recession. Everything's gonna be fine If you saw globally what's going on the dollar going through the roof the whole world's investing the dollar expecting in this crash that's coming But the Fed's just ignoring it which is kind of interesting because not too long ago a year ago They were saying with zero percent interest rates and buying bonds that Inflation is transitory now you're raising rates by the faster you ever rate and you said is no white knight No way, it's gonna be transitory. (3/33)
Yeah, Muhammad Al-Aryan has similar take and Has really been going off on the Fed since last year saying they lost total credibility when it comes to inflation I'm gonna transitory transitory transitory when we have five percent last year Remember if we look at the inflation rate which based on CPI which the Fed looks at since 1992 on An annual basis we never had seen never so the CPI hit over four percent I mean didn't have four percent were at five percent and they were like, hey, it's transitory not to see here. Nothing to worry about Again, now the raisin raised by 75 basis points at each meal like it's absolutely normal like this is perfectly normal But you need to wait to see the impact of what's going on Because it's significantly impacting the markets and it's happening so fast It's incredible if you listen to the companies throughout each sector and look at housing at a standstill See the recent price index from S&P case Shiller said home prices falling at its fastest pace in (4/33)
history in July Granted it showed that home prices are up 16% year-over-year, which is insane and I get it even more insane if you break down those details Tampa and Miami up 31% year-over-year home prices. So yes, they're gonna fall but they fell what 3% 4% and This data is July. It's not August. It's July So wait until you see the data from August when mortgage rates were Around 5% they're pushing 7. They're pushing 7% at 6.8% right now But you guys see home prices for at least 15% From these levels over the next few months or at least by year-end Who's buying houses? I mean you shut off the loan market if you have cash. Yes, if you live in Florida, Texas, yes You're gonna see demand still and prices remain relatively high But essentially shut off the housing market all the growth that's involved with it within six months I'm president Retailers out of nowhere sitting on massive inventories when they've seen these supply chain concerns massive demand We got to get everything up and (5/33)
running get everything stores full all sudden demand shut off like a second Have you seen the chip sector lately? Went from massive Unbelievable demand when we need to build fat plants everywhere which costs probably four billion or more To build these massive plants which take a year at least two three years some of them to build It's a massive process Now all of a sudden in a blink of an eye they have gluts Many of these companies But this is what happens when you raise rates this fast without pausing at all just to see hey Let's take a step back just to see what's going on You get massive shocks to the system where inflation is gonna quickly turn into deflation while you're raising rates Let's think about it. The Fed truly believes and they do they believe that keeping rates over four and a quarter percent for all 2023 is not gonna cause a massive recession. They're expecting five percent growth second half next year How is that possible with rates over four percent the housing (6/33)
market interest rates mortgage rates? Seven eight percent. How is that possible? How are you expecting that? Where is it coming from? I mean, this is massive recession close to a possession a depression But you're looking at these guys. Like what are you doing here? I Get it you were wrong All right, and I want to talk about the past and it's so easy to just you know shit on the Fed Everybody does it but right now we're talking about right now You need to sit back and wait Because you're seeing demand destruction across the board almost across every single inch is happening immediately and This morning Kathy Lewis on squawk box always controversial She's always bullish no matter what innovation innovation innovation bullish bullish bullish. Well, you know innovation works when you have a great market But she was saying the Fed is gonna have a major pivot To easier policy. It's gonna happen soon Just US economies in a recession. I agree. She thinks inflation is peak, which I agree (7/33)
Because the market should be discounting to peak in interest rates and should not be surprised to see deflation over the next six months And regardless of what you think of her she is on the front line when it comes to the biggest most innovative companies And she's seeing this Because she also went on CBC to announce that she wants you a new venture fund with Anderson Horowitz, and I forgot the other firm Raising money where they're gonna give not a credit investors chance to invest in private innovative companies and She said something that was disturbing to me She came out and said when it comes to credit investors that people who are not accredited investors in the younger generation Are much much smarter than these accredited investors when it comes innovation because they are fully engulfed in these trends She has a point if you look at a lot of credit investors are older investors Probably don't really know too much about Bitcoin roblox Real late to Tesla and EVs and things like (8/33)
that So I could see like the point she's trying to make okay, I agree with that the only generation holy cow But they're not smarter than accredited investors when it comes to knowing how a deal is structured and that's important that's significant You say well some accredited investors don't but a lot of accredited investors you got there You got your head handed to you, right? You got the shit kicked out of you a couple times and you realize wow Okay, these guys are raising money and and you know, they're doing it at three dollars And they're gonna go public at five six seven dollars and I'm getting in at three and the person who's doing it Just said they're gonna invest a whole bunch of money on into the deal. They're already in it They're gonna invest another million dollars. What you don't know is they invested twenty thousand dollars and got five six seven million shares at a penny so yeah, it's nice to say okay, we're investing a lot more in the next round, but You know at three (9/33)
dollars it you really have to look at valuations to see if it's a bargain or not because the people coming in three That's fine But a lot of these people are in under a dollar who are gonna be selling the shit out of this as soon as it Opens a five and pushing it down to three and they're gonna be selling at three and two because they're in at a dollar When you were able to get in at three, that's what we saw at SPAC's I mean look at chamath and Branson Marketed version galactic. I mean, it's not a terrible company version galactic. It's it's innovative. It's cool The valuation came out, you know, it was insane And that can only happen when you have easy money policy. You have a bunch of idiots saying oh my god I want to invest alongside these guys when you don't realize they didn't buy these put millions into this stock Which I said it did broke down the stats. I think it was last week of the week before with chamath You spend like twenty five thousand dollars buying millions of (10/33)
shares at point zero zero one, whatever Then you got all these SPAC's and pipe deals once they announced and saying okay Well, it's gonna come out at ten gonna raise even more money and we're gonna give these guys You know stock at a dollar fifty and warrants at 250 and it's coming out at ten meaning You know when you see pressure on these things at seven six five You're like who's selling these guys are making a fortune while you bought it I mean, especially when it comes to you have an investor when it comes to version galactic You're buying 15 20 30 while these guys are pumping the shit out of this Chamath and Branson were pumping the crap out of this thing Why so they could dump it made hundreds of millions of dollars? You Can new investors I talked to a lot of these innovative young people right now Especially with the amount of money we invest in the metaverse and what we're doing within You know d5 metaverse nfts and what we're building here and they are brilliant But they're (11/33)
coming to us because they have no idea of how to structure a company. They have no idea I used to think they were creating these tokens on purpose to rip people off. They just don't know I'm like stop ripping off your your your early investors create a real utility Create some kind of demand Where these investors are gonna benefit because when they benefit if you sell this company they do well They're gonna be with you for life. That's how I built my credibility over the last 30 years But they don't know better You don't understand that issuing a billion tokens and you have no demand and no utility feature And all you're gonna have is sellers unless you're pumping it through some kind of social media channel, which is discord and telegram these days But it's interesting Because yes, it's nice for individual investors To be open to these ideas, but they need someone there to say hey, you know what? I mean who knows where? Kathy what is getting in it? Is she getting in real really early (12/33)
and doing a second round or a third round because she's invested a lot of these companies Where even though they're down 60 70 percent? Kathy would made a fortune on these because she was in very very early and yes, you could say well she's down 45 50 60 percent On some of these names that's from the highs But she was investing I mean look at all the names she invested in during the very early early rounds It's how'd she make a fortune But hey, she did say something interesting about Bitcoin That Bitcoin is going to reach 500,000 Within the next five years five hundred thousand. It's twenty thousand right now over twenty thousand and notice how it's been Maintaining these levels. I mean, what's the 18 to 20 21 22 around there, but over the past what? Month month and a half went while stocks tanked May find that interesting how come gold's not seeing that bid Well, the dollar's going up, but the dollars not impacting Bitcoin as much as it goes higher as it is with gold People run into (13/33)
the exits hard to invest in gold with two years yielding more than 4% why on gold stick in a two-year why? Bitcoin Is different are you seeing it to couple itself from the market for the first time in a while, but it's been happening Again, maybe interesting saying wow how's Bitcoin holding up here? It's not that interesting if you do the math if you look at the trillions that are going to have access To Bitcoin to aetherium to some of the big names Look at ripple surging And I'm gonna keep it running So basically what that is is the emergency alert because I am in Florida. We're getting a hurricane So I'm gonna keep that in here usually we like pull it out and say oh no what happened I have my phone on mute too, and that still comes through, but we are experienced our hurricane Not gonna be bad too bad on our end, but yes, Tampa is supposed to get nailed So we'll be reporting about that even tomorrow when it really hits But yes, they're warning and going crazy and again people are (14/33)
worried not really on our coastline That's another topic hot topic they're gonna be talking about tomorrow, but getting back to Kathy woods with Bitcoin 500 It's 20,000 500,000. I mean you could say a hundred thousand right now even that would be a bold forecast But you've seen the access To the institutions and these institutions are having a gonna give their clients access to Bitcoin for the first time ever like the Fidelity's Charles Schwab Black rock don't take my word for it look for how much these guys In terms of assets they have under management From 4 trillion to 20 trillion trillion trillion trillion 1% comes in you're looking at Bitcoin tripling from here What is it 300? 400 billion dollar market caps under 400 billion right now They can have access to some of the biggest names But this is where the money is flowing into even in this market That's why they're raising money in so many of these funds when NFTs defy metaverse you see Walmart one what came out what? Recently a (15/33)
couple days ago entering the metaverse Sonic the what roblox You're gonna create two metaverse experiences once called Walmart land and the other is the universe of play and then second one's gonna be a Virtual game platform right with a video kind of like video games and giveaway Certain things gonna blimp that drops toys and music festivals. They already announced a big concert with three major artists virtual stores merchandise But the understanding how big the metaverse is and 80% of people who go there buy something that all the retailers are going into this space But they're targeting what Gen Z? 25 or younger Millennials under 40 You look at roblox 52 million daily active users They want that audience. That's incredible Hayden this company spelled H a de an to web 3 metaverse company using Computing to scale virtual and metaverse worlds they just raised 30 million in a blink of an eye this is over the weekend 30 million who they backed by epic and ten cent to the biggest In (16/33)
terms of gaming you're seeing money continue to flow into this area. This is where the world is going This is where the innovation is going you're gonna continue to see money pour into these sectors I'm just amazed by the amount of money especially giving these current market conditions Ford Now it's last week. They're entering the metaverse and nfts you file for 19 trademark patents They're creating this open platform not a closed platform like what you see on roadblocks where roblox makes the money Walmart makes the money know For I like what they're doing here. It's an open platform where any developer can build a car use digital artwork They likely share profits with Ford But this is what an open metaverse is all about it's unleashing talent around the world not just Talent from developers you have under your own umbrella You have tons of amazing developers out there. They're gonna be able to take advantage of this opportunity That's what the open metaverse is about instead of (17/33)
getting locked down with a company and making $300,000 a year we're generating you know 25 million dollars in profits for company based on your ideas now You go to these companies or Create through their website and Ford's gonna share probably a large percent of the profits with you And you're gonna have ownership a lot of this stuff And benefits Ford right if someone comes up with innovation for a car that looks absolutely amazing. It's gonna sell you know five million Units of this car based on the design from someone else they would do that in a heartbeat They give someone five ten million dollars in a heartbeat. Let's sell billions of dollars in this car makes sense Benefits Ford benefits of developers be independent. That's what the open metaverse is It's unleashing talent around the world and these developers where again. It's not just in-house people It's the world right that's Creating that's innovating. That's the future. That's where this is going And of course it's the data (18/33)
aspect we don't have to share all your data, or you're not sharing it They're stealing it from you and making money off of you, and that's the model right Google Facebook I think that's the model you get to use these sites for free But they steal everything from you and give it to third parties that can email you call you I mean, I can't tell you how many people call me at least three four people call me there you know They know where I live they want they're like oh, it's your house for sale We could sell if you don't even know me. I'm getting three calls a day from people all these lists What do you think they get this information from? That's why the largest companies in the world are investing so much a biggest Investors billions and billions and tens of billions of dollars into the metaverse This is where it's going people are sick of getting their data stolen the open metaverse is what it's about Good forward sees it Okay, Walmart's testing you're gonna see roblox benefit (19/33)
tremendously because they're testing plus They have get 50 million daily active users so everyone's gonna be testing on those platforms Nike worlds built on roblox as well See if people purchasing stuff And roblox could have an advertising model pretty soon now They just sell different products and sell different things and skin stuff like that through their site But that's the testing ground for roblox and then if the roblox and they're gonna realize wow let's go They're gonna do what Ford does let's open this up Let's see if anyone else outside our company has ideas of how we can grow and we'll pay them for it It could be some kid in a small town in India that nobody knows about it's gonna come up with a great solution for a major problem that Walmart has And you'd never have access to that person unless you had an open platform an open metaverse With that said knows ideas when it comes to equities You have to be careful you guys especially in October It's not because it's what we (20/33)
see all the crashes happen. It's true We just broke through the lows and yes, we're up a little bit today, but we're in dangerous dangerous territory You have people gonna see a statement for the first time and they're not gonna be happy At the end of this month. They're not gonna be happy Yes, a lot of us have access to online we see our but some of them. You know a lot of Retirees don't have working power of watching their home price start to decline again It's still up a lot, but hey my home price is coming down now my portfolio is coming down Considerably down 20% plus likely across the board and really just got hit in September What are you gonna? Do they're gonna be like wow all right? I'm gonna go to cash or buy the two-year generate 4% not bad Also if you look at mutual funds Mutual funds have until October 31st to lock in capital gains of course. It's not gonna be capital gains. It's gonna be losses That they're sitting on So that's for tax purposes Individuals have until the (21/33)
end of the year mutual funds have until October 31st It makes sense for them to be selling like crazy Because they're sitting on massive massive losses many of these people You can offset your gains Which is for selling? You can see lots and lots of selling and probably selling at the lows So if you think something's down 25% is trading at a 9 PE and it's growing those earnings by 10% You're like this is a great deal be patient wait Because you're gonna get a better deal. This is gonna happen throughout October Especially with funds who was it 90% are underperforming and Underperforming significantly, and this is going on during earning season where many companies Are gonna be lowering or removing their guidance like FedEx did Since every sector one by one is going to experience with the housing market the chip sector has just experienced Massive demand and out of nowhere within a month month and a half two months. It shuts off demand destruction That's what happens when you raise (22/33)
rates at this pace this fast as quickly and while you're seeing this massive destruction in demand Consumers closing their wallets what's happening people are flooding into the dollar which is up like 20% where Every 2% move higher in a dollar user results in a 1% decline or to headwind earnings through 20% the dollar so gonna add 10% hit earnings earnings if You're looking at the analyst, which is what I do Daniel does we look at this we look at earnings see they're not lowering. They're lowering. They're not lowering fast enough and That's why you're gonna see so many of these companies say you know We're removing guidance because you're gonna be able to get away with it FedEx Warren you're gonna see other companies Warren say we need to wait and see because we really don't believe That I mean our earnings just got destroyed We've seen demand come down for most companies throughout both sectors And yet we're watching the Fed tell us that they're gonna considerably raise rates further (23/33)
and keep them that high through 2023 into 2024 for a full year if you're a company and You really believe that the feds gonna do that what you should because that's exactly what they said and they reiterated from Jackson Hall over Here again last meeting and it keeps saying they're gonna do it How do you offer guidance if you're in a housing market? How do you offer guidance when everything's getting turned off? And you just went from three percentage streets in January to close to seven percent and probably going higher How do you order your supplies how do you build houses yes, you have the current contracts under a negative fulfill those Requirements for many of these places and yes, you still have a Surprise problem where there's not a lot of supply for homes But even the chip sector we're sitting on this massive glut now. Where's the man gonna come from? All these auto companies are they are these people who put down? $500 for a new EV that you were supposed to get a year ago And (24/33)
you did this two years ago now You just realize that EV you're gonna purchase is 35 40 percent higher than what you were gonna purchase it for Are you gonna pull that now and say you know what let me just buy like this gas vehicle Instead of buying a brand new first-generation car that you it's gonna get recalled at least five times because all these guys never built an EV in their lives outside of Tesla and Scaled it you're gonna see it you're seeing it now. I mean Ford the EV almost all EVs that have been released have been recalled That happens all the time But even more because the battery technology you're gonna replace the battery whatever Seen lots of recalls they run into lots of problems. They're trying to get these things to market so fast I haven't been able to test them as they normally test them We'll see so the good news The good news here is stay patient Once the Fed stops raising rates, which by the way We've never seen the equity markets bottom as the Fed is raising (25/33)
rates during a tightening cycle. It almost never happens You usually need to see interest rates top out and they haven't topped out. They're still going higher Maybe a little bit lower today cuz the marks going up but still the trend is higher We've haven't seen it. It never happens ever happens. It's not gonna happen this time If you just randomly say wow, I like this stock. I like that stock. It makes sense to buy this be careful It doesn't even matter what stock And I thought Costco's numbers were really good. Yes subscriptions came in a tiny bit light, but they 17% growth I believe it was in sales 11% in earnings if I'm not mistaken The stock was already down over 20% from its highs and it got nailed on that news Was it a fantastic quarter? No But it was pretty good and I guarantee that quarter is gonna be better than 90% of the companies that are gonna report going forward over the next month month and a half But look out so we all gonna have incredible buying up to you, but you (26/33)
need to be patient And for now focus on some of the few things that are working Bitcoin is working innovation with the NFTs and the metaverse is working You see more more companies become purer plays on that not just a small portion of it But roblox is a great play. I mean it's down 70% they're still growing and Still signing up tons of customers, but at 30 bucks 30 something. I mean seems like a steal down here Uranium Uranium is not going away. I mean that demand even if prices come down and we see what we're doing strategic oil reserve. I know president's doing keeping all prices low into the Election Season I get it makes sense. I know why he's doing everyone knows why he's doing it, but it's you know If you're looking at what happened to these companies what happened in Europe? They're never going to make they're gonna make sure the next 30 years they're never in a position like this where one country like Russia could just Pull 40% of your energy and you're just stuck on an (27/33)
island going. Holy shit. What do I do? You sitting there with one of the best options in the world safest Cleanest 24-hour base load power available That means all day all night not when the wind blows not when the Sun comes out And you're seeing in Europe. I mean they're going back to coal right Germany's going back to coal Major finish go back to coal. It's not a surprise These climate change idiots don't care but people are going to die unless they get heat in the winter and they're in a lot of trouble Over there, it's bad Nuclears the option Uranium, so I'm interviewing Amir Adnani on Thursday's a president CEO co-founder of uranium energy UEC It's gonna be on Thursday great great conversation. Make sure you listen, but that's an area that stocks have Been volatile well off their lows will pull back from their highs. But wow, I think this is a great market government supporting it now Our government supporting it now makes a lot of sense Let's see when it comes to the market Let's (28/33)
see how much of these stocks sectors sell off because even biotech looks incredibly attractive Look at names that are trading at or below net cash If you get biotech is a mark that peaked in September 2021 so a year ago the four or five months before the overall equity market peaked and these things have gotten destroyed 70 80 percent 80 percent plus good names that actually generating revenue That's a great opportunity that markets probably gonna come back a lot quicker I still think it's it's probably 20 25 percent off of its lows, which isn't really saying that much Because they were down so much but great opportunities there But overall going into next month guys follow you stops. You have to play defense by puts Which Jenny Terranova's been doing in our money flow trader newsletter. She just booked another triple-digit winner what the February 2023 put on e zu which is The Eurozone ETF that tracks large and mid cap stocks within Europe, so basically she's betting against European (29/33)
equities so get this she bought this put last month and just closed out for a hundred and fifty percent gain and Basically has been doing this over and over and over again for the past ten months Well, the equity markets have been absolutely crashing and buying puts is not shorting You don't have that unlimited risk which you have to worry about the only risk in amount of money you put up to buy that put Moneyfold trader if I had a guest guys probably the best before in financial newsletter this year. I mean nobody's even close Very proud to have this product under our umbrella We do a special interview with Jena get some of the favorite ideas going forward What you do is behind our paywall for existing subscribers all existing subscribers It's an instant money for a trader trying it out for three months Same an email Frank has a research comm you need to learn to protect yourself If you're not interested you think all Frank's selling something or whatever This is something I've been (30/33)
pushing as soon as it's that pivoted in November it's a fundamental change in the market and Forget that this is protecting yourself or hedging This is how you make a fortune when the markets crash you agreed Meter should be going through the roof because if you're able to generate these returns while the market is coming down You're gonna be sitting on massive cash Especially throughout tokes this market is incredibly overvalued it's either gonna fall a ton in October a fall lot over the next few months as The Fed continues to raise rates. It's gonna be a very difficult market But if you look past if you look man the last 10-12 years If you look at these market crashes they happen quickly they happen fast and then You see the markets rebound now It's different because the feds raising rates, but the Fed cannot continue to raise rates and keep them well over 4% For low in three to six months even three months You're going to see it you need to take a step back and watch the monthly (31/33)
data forget about the CPI since it's fixed and use Shelter as 30% of that component we saw inflation last month with energy prices crashing Think about that. That's how much You're Looking at rentals and Shelter accounts for the CPI stop looking at that because that's not going down anytime soon Listen to the companies listen to what they're telling you because we're looking at two rate hikes to 75 base point rate hikes and another one coming the last two are not factored into the market yet and you're seeing Sector by sector shut off demand destruction be very very careful. It's gonna get worse before it gets better. We broke through the lows It's not a good sign But be careful cuz it's gonna create an unbelievable buying opportunity But there's times to be aggressive times to be patient play defense play defense You get to have the money flow trader if you're interested Frank curves research calm And any questions guys during this time? I know it's rough getting a lot of questions. (32/33)
I'm here for you Frank has research calm just feel free to see me in mail whenever you want really appreciate all support Now I'll see you guys Daniel tomorrow. Take care You (33/33)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Wednesday, July 27th, and good morning. Good afternoon and good evening Wherever you are you are turning into the Wall Street unplugged podcast. Hello and welcome I am your guest host your Transitory host your fill-in guest behind the microphone for the one and only Frank Curzio who normally does this founder of Curzio research I Daniel Creech senior research analyst here at Curzio research the one that works alongside behind and for the one and only Frank Curzio who is down south on a much-needed family vacation Miami no further the Bahamas even further Cuba no South and southeast Frank is down in the Dominican Republic Partying it up living it up with his family on some resort. I looked at a picture of it. It's gorgeous down there So good for him. He needs some R&R down there, but I (1/33)
Will steer the ship here behind the podcast today and tomorrow and for all you paying subscribers I will also get to do frankly speaking on Friday Today Wednesday the best day of the week. Normally Frank and I are going back and forth on headlines and fun stories and things Later this afternoon the Federal Reserve will meet and then Jerome Powell Fed chair will hold a press conference and discuss the Raising of interest rates today. I'll get to that in just a second and the key there and I've seen and I've read articles And I'm sure you have to out there if you've paid attention to any of this What he says in the press conference following today's two o'clock or two thirty announcement will be much more important than the actual Raising of interest rates they do today Because the markets are forward-looking Everybody's worried about a recession the GDP print comes out or a revised print comes out on Thursday It could be the second quarter of negative growth Technically meaning a (2/33)
recession Frank joked about that and pointed out how when things don't go your way you simply just move the goalpost Change the definition and we're in a world where you can change the definition of damn near anything right now So The consensus is the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points today And that's basically baked into the market. There's a small chance in some people betting that you might get a 1% interest rate rise today That's very low odds anything could happen I doubt if they would shock that if I had to look in and shake my eight ball or you know Rub into the crystal ball, I guess of genie in the lamp type stuff Family episode. I got to keep it clean here. I would say yes, they do the 75 basis points I think that Jerome Powell is going to continue the path of hey, we're gonna keep looking at data. We're gonna be data dependent yada yada yada but the next Months when when next month's inflation reading comes out for for right now, that's going to be (3/33)
signal But he doesn't know that so he's just gonna have to play and walk the tightrope of data dependent We're gonna be able to change our mind we're gonna do everything we can we're gonna throw the kitchen sink at it You know, we're gonna get inflation down because families are hurting and all that which is all true. However They're just in a very very tight spot because they can't raise rates too much or they're really gonna hurt the economy and everything else So it's a very very tight corner They've painted themselves into I'll cover a little bit more of that in tomorrow's episode after I listen to or go through some of the press conference and things But that's not the most important thing. I want to talk to you about right now. That is important Don't get me wrong, but we have to wait a little bit on that I want to talk to you about the drama going on and the back and forth between Coinbase and the Security Exchange Commission and several or at least a couple other groups (4/33)
involved and For once we get to discuss Frank and I try to pick fun topics here and there on Wednesday and for once we get to discuss the Wall Street drama the Kardashian version the reality TV version of this Without involving Elon Musk just yet now It does involve a you know, there is there is tweets here And of course we got that fiasco, but this is kind of interesting and to shape this so there's a couple Wall Street Journal articles that I'm gonna refer to and the US the title of the first one is The US files first crypto insider trading case. So the first is always exciting. There's a first for everything as they say Now crypto currencies are in this gray area from an enforcement or legal standpoint and what I mean by that is a crypto currency isn't technically a Security like a stock like you buy Microsoft or McDonald's or something like that It's this digital asset. Well, what rules what regulation does that fall under who gets to enforce those and remember? When I I want you (5/33)
to keep something in mind here as I go through this this story and saga We're all humans we all have things to prove we all have emotions we all have opinions egos Etc. And when you mix that with government entities and power you're going to get chaos silliness and Probably a rigid and rugged system not necessarily a smooth flowing process Keep that in mind because these things tend to last and when I say these things these stories these litigations the legislation To move from a thought to a rule to for rules to be clarified Securities to be clarified what is deemed this and that registration all that kind of stuff. This is all going to take time and There's no final answer yet. I'll get to who's going to be hurt the most obviously coinbase. Look at their look at their stock going from Pull up a chart here At the crypto highs of last year when Bitcoin was making new highs near 70,000 everything crypto related was at least moving up or most likely was coinbase was give or take 350 a (6/33)
share and now it's around $50 a share. So that's significant and They're obviously going to be hurt because they're in the crosshairs right now and this is going to continue I will say one of the companies I think that will benefit from all this I don't see how they don't benefit from the coming regulation the coming crackdown But that's and it's an old friend of ours and I'll get to that. I'm trying to tease it a little bit Just stay with me here for a few moments but again Even the company I think is in a perfect position to benefit is not going to benefit overnight These things take time they take these processes need to play out. So I have all that being said Let's get to the coinbase and fun times between the SEC and the DOJ Yes, the Department of Justice as he had been involved To start things off. I want to show you how long this has taken and how these processes get drawn out I'm gonna go back all the way to September 7th 2021 Oh almost a year ago CEO Brian Armstrong of (7/33)
coinbase went on a tweet storm now tweet storm for everybody out there That's not into social media such as I even though I follow it for work The tweet storm is just a lot of tweets to get your point or opinion across because When you tweet out something or post something there's only so many characters allowed per tweet So if you're gonna put the lyrics to a song out there It's gonna take several instead of just one long one because you got to break it up This tweet storm is like 20 different tweets or something ridiculous and not all of them are that important So I'm not gonna call them to your attention However numero uno you want to start with an opening good line to get people's attention and that's exactly What Brian Armstrong does here? Remember? This is last year. This is September 7th, 2001 Number one some really sketchy behavior coming out of the SEC recently story time Okay, that's tweet number one Number two millions of crypto holders have been earning yield on their (8/33)
assets over the last few years It makes sense. If you want to lend out your funds you can earn a return Everyone seems happy This is in relation to Coinbase earn which was allowing people to hold their crypto currencies there They lend them out earn a return like a yield like a think of a savings account or a CD in terms of not not in terms of the legality in terms of the earning of interest on it and Brian Armstrong was upset and the remaining remainder of this tweet comes it comes to the point and says listen we were Outgoing we were going to we were reaching out to all these to the SEC to everybody else and saying hey Here's what we're gonna do. It's already being done in the crypto world and you saw some crazy yields being generated and They said we're just doing this and we're trying to be We're trying to register with you not register. Excuse me. We're trying to let you know and do this by the book We want to do this right and legit. We're just offering this because it's a (9/33)
product that people want Well long story short the SEC said if you go through with this we're going to sue you and they wouldn't give clarification This is according to coinbase Brian Armstrong in his tweets The SEC wouldn't give clarification to what they exactly needed to do in order to get this lend Excuse me earn program off and running. So it got scrapped. I Point this out because again, we're all humans. We all have grudges where we can hold grudges We shouldn't but we do you want to prove points and this back and forth has been going on So things are not good between the SEC and coinbase anyway And Brian Armstrong calls them out and says that they were the SEC was one of the only groups They wouldn't meet with him when he went down to Washington to meet with Legislators and all that kind of stuff because this is after they went public Now fast forward so, you know things aren't great. The SEC doesn't like coinbase coinbase doesn't like the SEC They're not registered as a typical (10/33)
exchange like the New York Stock Exchange or anything like that Which comes with a lot more regulations and or disclosures and cost so that's one big thing here, too Coinbase is newer program newer exchange. Excuse me held digital assets are all new so Coming from that and they're already upset the Wall Street Journal on Friday 22nd of July this year simply states the US files first crypto insider trading case Now this this gets interesting Federal authorities brought the first ever cryptocurrency insider trading case Thursday accusing a former coinbase. Dang it global Coinbase manager of tipping off his brother and a friend with confidential information And signaling in a comparison case that the aggressive new push to police digital tokens Now prosecutors in Manhattan filed wire fraud charges, etc, etc. We don't need to go over that insider trading is the big deal here the SEC's classification of the digital tokens as Unregistered securities could have wide-ranging effects on the (11/33)
cryptocurrency industry and expose coinbase and other platforms to new legal Liabilities and regulatory requirements. That's a fancy way of saying a lot more higher cost to operate your business And why is that important that's important because the exchange business is tough by itself. What do I mean by that? Coinbase and other exchanges your typical exchanges simply give a platform to investors to buy and sell different Assets securities whatever you want to call them. Well, they take fees they take trading fees they take listing fees and some sorts of the assets that are on their platform and That's the main source of revenue in most cases. So I get on I buy XYZ I sell XYZ You're paying commissions here and there the assets that you're buying either paid commissions or pay listing fees to get on there That's the revenue generator for the exchange now okay, that's good if you you get a lot of buzz you get a lot of people trading cryptos or digital assets or whatever that Is and you (12/33)
get a lot of users on there buying and selling that generates a lot of fees if you get more listings Depending on how your revenue is structured there that brings in more fees for the exchange. That's all good. However, it's a tough business Why because fees go down over time because of competition Look at your typical e trade or Scott trade or brokerage firm fidelity and such on the stock side Many if not all the major ones right now You can buy and sell stock for free. How do they make money? Well, they make money in different areas They have asset management. They have advisory services where you charge fees and ongoing things not consulting. That's not the right word. Excuse me, but It advisory fees more than more the less Managed accounts things like that to my knowledge coinbase doesn't have that yet And that is a big big big problem not not in a problem in a sense that they can't offer they don't just because What I'm talking about here is the legal liability and regulatory (13/33)
requirements is just going to add to cost of already a tough business now evidently these Alleged insider traders netted about one and a half million dollars in illegal profits Then one gentleman Let's see our message is this is good. You got it. You got to come out swinging and one of the Damian Williams the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York says our message with these charges is clear Fraud is fraud is fraud whether it occurs on the blockchain or on Wall Street The big deal here in the alleged crime is the individual at Coinbase Was one of a handful I don't want to say handful a few people with knowledge they had advanced knowledge of timing and public announcements of the assets on the exchange the exchange plan to list now This is key because as I told you it's a tough business if you're a small group of people and you know token XYZ is Going to be listed on Coinbase soon if you go in front run that or if you know that knowledge and you go and buy these tokens It's (14/33)
not a guarantee. However, the odds are really really really good once these hit a platform to where you have Millions or a lot more users that maybe didn't know about this asset in the past a rising tight lifts all boats So if you get this rush And you have a combination of all kinds You have some people that are gonna do quite a bit of research and due diligence You have other people that are just gonna trade because they like to trade and it's fun Gamification type deal in the adrenaline you have a couple of people that are just gonna Buy or invest or trade off of hearsay and hey, did you hear about this token XYZ? It's gonna revolutionize the world It's gonna save the planet. It's gonna kill all the bad guys, etc, etc, whatever it does It's going to generate buzz and people are going to go there and look at it and the odds of that are going up The odds of the price there is going to go up so this is what how they made their illegal one and a half million dollars because they would (15/33)
just front run they would buy all these tokens and It's interesting the Wall Street Journal points out that some of the trades drew public scrutiny Back in April a Twitter account well known in the crypto community flagged the purchase of hundreds of thousands of tokens About 24 hours before they were named in the public listing announcement for coinbase It said and now this never looks good. I'm not and again. Hey, you're innocent until proven guilty in my eyes But we're gonna have some fun with this on this podcast because on May 11th the exchanges security operations director emailed. Mr. Wahi WHI however you say that I'm butchering it telling him to attend an in-person meeting Prosecutors said the day before the meeting. He bought a one-way ticket flight to India scheduled to depart the next day Now again, I'm not saying you're guilty, but boy does that look good on your end You want to have a meeting about anything sure and I've been in those meetings not for insider trading of (16/33)
course But I've been called down to the principal's office. So to speak and you did you say this? What are you doing? And edit it just part of it, but you got to be careful with your one-way ticket purchases The case this insider trading case is the latest signal that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are making an enforcement push on alleged insider trading schemes and digital assets Prosecutors last month charged a former employee on the NFT Marketplace with using insider information to profit off NFTs non-fungible tokens big part of the crypto community We'll set that aside for another day What's interesting here is in another Push back coinbase false SEC enforcement efforts. This is on page two as well of the Wall Street Journal last Friday The takeaway here that I found really interesting is you want to think about okay what happens We'll go through a few scenarios here and I'll lead in with this because the head of the SEC. Mr Gensler has floated the possibility in recent months (17/33)
of working with cryptocurrency issuers and trading platforms like coinbase to create exemptions to certain sec requirements that's key because Whether you're a fan or not of crypto it's a massive industry and yeah, it was you know What three trillion I think is all the cryptos got up at the peak near last November now I think it's down to a trillion or or even less maybe But it's a massive Asset class already and it's still young and it's still new the the sweeping notion that hey the SEC comes down and says Coinbase is Illegally or non-compliantly listing assets that should be deemed as securities or stocks as we think about them and Therefore they have to shut down. Okay end of story Roll up the sidewalks. We're going home that Let's say is a percentage or has a percentage of happening, but it's very very very small I'm not I'm not personally worried and I could be totally wrong I'm not worried about the SEC coming down and saying you can't do business anymore because It's such a big (18/33)
industry and it's already got billions of dollars And there's a lot of there's a lot of other people that would be her other Industries developers things like that The ecosystem is building out the economy around digital assets is continuing to build out and will continue to build out Because the biggest dog in the crypto world and the leader of the pack and the ultimate numero numero uno Bitcoin Is not even a security in mr. Gensler's eyes from the SEC. He said that in the past and That would fall under more of a commodities trading platform or security so now That's one scenario I don't think will happen. Okay, you're just got a shot shut down But for coinbase and other exchanges and coin bases is the big one here because it's publicly traded and it's in the limelight What if the SEC just said okay now you have to register all these as securities and you have to pay these fines and What's typical on Wall Street in between investment banks and or trading platforms? The like is a sense (19/33)
of hey We're suing you or we're charging you with this. We're gonna settle you're not gonna admit any wrongdoing You're just gonna pay a lot of fines and we're just gonna wash our hands and go through the revolving door and we'll see in a few months That's the way the game is played a lot Doesn't mean it's going to continue to always be played that way But the path of least resistance is that revolving door is that just admit to no guilt pay big fines however, that would crush coinbase and With Bitcoin getting hit and being around 20,000 versus 70,000 You're gonna have less people actively doing that people were getting scared You've had these blow ups and stable coins and you've had this ripple effect in these absolutely terrible bear market Which is now bear market but a market crash from November of last year That would be terrible for coinbase and it's not a surprise and you got to give him credit Famous short seller and wonderful analyst and he's already he's on Twitter. He's on (20/33)
CNBC at different times, but Jim chinos is Has been short I'm I believe he still is but it was very recently when I saw him give a quick interview or a post about being short corn Coinbase so I'm sure he is absolutely cleaning up on this stock as it drifts lower Even though it rallied along with the crypto market a little bit ago It's down I think 20% over the last few trading days as these SEC and lawsuits and alleged to come out Either way coinbase is not in good shape out of that and to keep the drama going on the same day July 22nd coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal put out a blog post and I remember talking to Frank as I opened the podcast or this story with Brian Armstrong's tweet storm from last year. I Was surprised I remember talking to Frank on a Wall Street unplugged podcast It is good to see people stand up for themselves It is it is good to see leaders and things go out there and state your case and be bold and all that kind of stuff However, you want to continue to (21/33)
understand the game and the environment you're in and this is for all investors as well The odds are stacked against you that doesn't mean you don't you shouldn't play it just means you got to pay attention more and It's one thing to stand up and fight back and voice your opinion and all that That's great. And and I always would back that You want to be cautious though because you have a few to share your responsibility and nobody is man I can't I can't not bring him up. He's in so much drama, but Twitter everybody likes or hates Elon Musk But you could argue if he's good or bad for shareholders and stock price has done well over time So results don't lie in that aspect But you want somebody to stand up? Except for the fact that you got to remember who you're taking on and you're taking on the SEC and you're fighting huge government Agencies that have unlimited power so to speak Unlimited funds and they can ruin your business model Quickly, I mean that that is a huge risk You don't (22/33)
want this and as I pointed out this has been going on back and forth forget that it was over lend there's obviously a lot of issues and a lot of strife and a lot of bad blood between Coinbase and the SEC right now and You have to make matters worse in my opinion The chief legal officer comes out with a coinbase blog and it's titled coinbase does not list securities end of story Well hell that sums it up. Mr. Chief legal officer Why didn't you just tell the SEC that before it went in the Wall Street Journal and your stock dropped down to $50 a share All right, that's moving on here We've said it before But given today's events he's talking about the SEC charges It bears repeating Following now listen to this. This is where he's he's trying to point out. This is one of those read between the lines This is a good angle here in my opinion because he points out the Department of Justice Investigation into a former coinbase employee misuse of confidential coinbase information related to (23/33)
listing decisions just talked about that the Security and Exchange Commission the SEC Separately filed security fraud charges against the individual related this wrongdoing now there's nine digital assets involved in this case and it's funny because The couple of articles in the Wall Street Journal in this blog post here Don't don't list the nine, but I went to I searched around in coin desk, which is it was just a good news source or website for cryptocurrencies has them listed here and it's And to be honest with you and this doesn't mean anything because I'm not an expert on crypto and I don't know all the cryptos out there but AMP, RLY, DDX POWR those are a couple of the ticker symbols and I haven't heard of any of them Again, that doesn't matter but I just found it interesting that I had to actually go look and it wasn't referenced at all in any of these but The SEC alleges the nine digital assets involved are securities Here's the in between the line This is a good point the DOJ (24/33)
reviewed the same facts and chose not to file securities fraud charges against those individuals and as the CFTC Commissioner Caroline FOM or fam, however, you say that stated a quote This is a quote striking example of regulatory by enforcement. Now. You might ask what's the CFTC that's the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Remember we got a lot of agencies involved in this You got the Department of Justice DOJ You got the SEC the Security Exchange Commission and now you got the CFTC Commodity Future Trading Commission Which from a commodity standpoint? Think of gold The Bitcoiners or even Gensler has said that Bitcoin could be regularly regulated by the CFT or he didn't say that but he's he's hinted at that because if Bitcoin is deemed a quote-unquote commodity Then it would fall under the enforcement or jurisdiction or however the hell you want to put it painted in between the lines of the CFTC the blog blog post of the chief legal officer of coinbase points out that obviously (25/33)
they respectfully disagree with the SEC and agree with the They disagree with the SEC and agree with the CFTC Commissioner saying that it's just regulation by enforcement Seven of the nine assets that the SEC listed in the charges on the alleged insider trading So seven of these nine are listed on coin bases platform. None of these assets are securities the blog reads Coinbase has a rigorous process to analyze and review each digital asset before making it available in our exchange a process Listen to this kicker a process that the SEC itself has reviewed now Again trying to play middle of the road here and being on the fence post and not take sides because I want to try to Just give you the facts of what's going on here or explain this drama as it unfolds That is a hell of a line though a process that the SEC itself has reviewed now reviewed is one thing That's not saying it signed off on anything the SEC That's not saying it approves or agrees with that's just saying it's reviewed it (26/33)
But that's an interesting piece of information and I think worth knowing more about What do they think about it and why aren't they saying whatever they think maybe we're just not smart Maybe it's above our pay grade us us young Individual investors are non pointy shoes non elitist non non powerful people here. We're just we're just running the rat race That that needs to be dug into more the process includes analysis whether assets could be considered a security again evidently, this is all the process that the SEC it's already reviewed and considers regulatory compliance and information security Aspects of the asset to be explicit the majority of assets that we review are not ultimately listed on Coinbase So they're trying to take the high road and say listen, we're going through all these over and over We're going through tons and tons of assets We take a very select few of them because we want to do what's right for the individual We want to follow the rules best we can even though (27/33)
they're not clear. They're clear as mud They're trying to follow this but they still want a tightrope. They don't want to say their securities They don't want to register on all that kind of thing. So you can see how this is a tangled web of mess They go on to say we have cooperated with the SEC's investigation and the wrongdoing charged by the DOJ But instead of having a dialogue with us about the seven assets on our platform the SEC jumped directly to litigation This goes back and why I brought it up from a almost a year ago when Brian Armstrong was upset and called out and said Listen, we're trying to be proactive We're telling you what we're going to do and instead of you asking or telling us to clarify You simply are saying if we go through with this product, we're going to be sued that is not a good situation or back and forth to make capitalism and Technology advance and the gooder the the good for everybody We worry today's charges suggest the SEC has little interest in the (28/33)
most fundamental role of regulators now that's just a good tongue-in-cheek sign off handshake middle fingers all that stuff is I Say all that because I want you to pay attention to this as it unfolds because it's going to cause a lot of volatility In digital assets Bitcoin and everything else not that everything and not that all these digital assets are tied together don't misunderstand But it is important about that it because if you see bad news come out It's going to get hit and the entire industry could go down now I'll touch more on this tomorrow But coinbase if you're in that you want to be careful because there's a lot of shares sold short sold short. Excuse me So there's gonna be a lot of pressure to the downside if I had to play it I would look to sell any rips and Use it as a trading vehicle not a long-term investment because of what's at stake here Who do I think will benefit from all this over time is Overstock now why is overstock going to benefit over time because they (29/33)
have a control well They they started meta chief ventures with blockchain assets their big flagship product is t0 yes, the t0 platform that the Curzio research security token trades on and What overstock has done overstock is the e-commerce? Platform where you buy furniture and all kinds of stuff. We're not involved in that What they did was they took their assets and they partnered and they created this partnership with Pelion And I'm probably butchering that as well. But long story short overstock took their blockchain t0 meta chief investments put them in a category over here and let The and is letting the manager of this partnership Pelion make take it take it with it and run so Medici ventures and overstock Overstock held approximately 42 percent and 41 percent respectively of t zeros outstanding common stock That's the big takeaway by buying overstock. You get exposure to the t0 platform I say all that because as you have more regulation and T zeros in the same boat and they're (30/33)
trying to do SEC in compliance and we're you know You you got to look at your listings and things like that But what is bad news for digital assets and being registered as securities on some of these exchanges? I don't see how that doesn't benefit a security token platform. That's at least trying to say Hey, we have more disclosures. We're going by the book or the regular SEC's and things of that nature Overstock is going to be extremely volatile. That's another chaotic We've talked about the wild ex-former founder and CEO Patrick Byrne several times. We've written about it and Even recommended at a time. So it's it's been a black eye most of the time, but keep this on your radar. I believe they The 42 and 41 percent that I just pulled was from their March quarterly report I believe the overstock reports earnings tomorrow, so I'll go through that Depending on what time it is. I don't know if I'll be able to talk about on tomorrow's podcast. But anyway Keep that on your on your radar (31/33)
Because overall I think the security token platform will benefit in time And it might take longer than I want or we would like if you're if you're long that To really benefit from that unfolding. So alright, hopefully I you were entertained and enjoyed the backstory of the SEC Versus coinbase. We'll talk more about it in the future as it unfolds Program you know, I will be here tomorrow like I said so I'm gonna talk about the Fed funds decision the interest rate height and the following press conference as well as some earnings and the difference between the markets and the economy I Let's see here. Yeah, I think I've covered about everything I want so a little longer than normal I'm crossing that 30 market 30 minute mark So you guys have a great wonderful day. I can't wait to do this again tomorrow Questions comments feedback good or bad Daniel at Curzio research comm that's Daniel at Curzio research comm Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most (32/33)
respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (33/33)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's September 14th, I'm Frank Curzio host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets There's a pretty amazing and emotional weekend A Lot of that had to do with the 20th anniversary of September 11th. Can't believe it's 20 years 20 years Doesn't seem like it's that long But trying to explain this To anyone who's under 35 years old. It's not easy. I mean it's like you can't Like someone who lived through Pearl Harbor trying to explain that event to someone my age And We're just not gonna get it. You weren't there. You didn't see it that emotion Sino about investment books you could read as many as you want and all these risks today Until you go through it until you're so sure on something and you just get wrecked (1/33)
there and go through that experience of those emotions That's when it sticks with you. That's when the lessons learned. That's what everything you know just those feelings come out and This was an event that made the world stop Showed us how vulnerable we are in the u.s. We had this pride and we're great. We're awesome strong best military and holy cow Also showed the power of unity so we all came together during What the toughest times if not the toughest time most of our lives But seeing so much of this again on all the channels no politics MSN BC did a great job. They did a live replay like the live replay of that day just showing the whole entire thing to the 60-minute piece they did on the FD and why the fire department during September 11th a Must one of the most powerful things I've ever saw Holy cow Holy cow I mean to the stories people told who were in the Twin Towers when the planes hit And even to that Mets Yankees game how great was that? September 11 was electric the (2/33)
atmosphere unity players wearing NYFD NYPD caps Bring back Joe Torre and people from back then and just showing a president's pitch and that strike and how big of a deal that was It really was We just brought back a lot of memories both good and bad Hey my experience I worked at Wall Street before September 11th, and then a few years again after I'm gonna work at the street But I was not working in New York City at that time. I was living in Queen still But a lot of my friends did and the stories they told me some of her covered in white dust They couldn't get out of New York City until that night The phones weren't working so their families didn't know if they were alive So one of my closest friends at the time his brother-in-law were top people in NYPD one of the first to respond along with the fire commissioner and Giuliani was there and They're waiting to see what to do if the second plane hit they're like, okay We need to speak to the building inspectors engineers, so they're (3/33)
waiting for them to get there they get there They said there's no way those buildings are coming down So his brother-in-law sent in Around 20 police officers into burning towers Every one of them died. So these are people that he knew closely Least some of them right and knew their families And think about that for a minute you forget a lot of this stuff in those stories And again, it's not knock on the building inspectors at all Are you looking at? There was no high-rise steel building that ever collapsed from a fire in history And then as they saw the floors coming down a little bit getting reports as those guys You know climb those floors. It's you know, it was too late. I mean not too late They still get a lot of people on said hey, you know what? the structure it's It's probably gonna collapse And so in 60 minutes when they got that message to them and then boom the first one collapsed the first tower But you're looking at this what where? The planes they hit the 64 the 80th floor (4/33)
So bill inspectors it know even police fire department didn't know I mean the 1680th floor I don't know if you realize how big twin towers you could be across the street and you can look up and not see the top I mean you'd have to your neck is as far back as you possibly can you can't even that's how big these buildings are So you're like, okay, you're good. You can go in, you know Let's get people out under the 50 floors and then try to get everyone out or whatever a lot of cops died that day fire Firemen died that day. They saw his brother about two months later Totally different person quiet kind of just staring at things I'm a smile that I guess saw him another time after never smiled a Lot of people you know, how do you come back from that? He'd be fucked up for life you Trying to do your job trying to save people now this happened on Tuesday. So on Thursday morning, I Wanted to get down and I wanted to see it for myself you know if in New York my whole entire life and I was just (5/33)
taking the M train from Queens New York or I live to see you know If I get down up that train goes straight down to Wall Street one train If you go to Midtown, you gotta take another train go anyplace to get this train just drops off you know, you just go to Wall Street, but also, you know, one of the stops is World Trade Center and Most of New York City was on lockdown not a lot of people out in or out of the downtown area Let's do a helping and they had the right proper, you know Identification and badges was blocked probably up to Midtown and You had to be law enforcement fire department Helping bring in food. I Say, you know, let me try Let me get on this train goes right downtown to the World Trade Center. I Don't want my girlfriend at the time so Everyone on that train workers cops firemen My would dress down Yeah, I'm thinking yeah, you know if they asked me to get off I'll get off for this guys to get off it and you Know did nobody everyone had blank stares and just you know It (6/33)
was crazy like nobody know what to do and again, this is still a rescue mode here Right because people were still trapped. They trying to rescue him. I'm surprised nobody questioned us You know, we kind of look like we belong and you know Next thing I know the train just kept going We got off the World Trade Center and made our way upstairs. I Mean, I'll never forget it the mist from that dust still in the air Rubble everywhere. I mean we were right the twins out right there Hundreds of people which is probably thousands but it was hundreds where I was searching for survivors. It was very very quiet I talked about New York City downtown cabs loud horns traffic people everywhere it was it was just Quiet very very quiet and I remember looking at everyone's face And it was just like our face it was just is this a dream it's just is this real it's really happening and When I go back to that day, it's easy to think about the negatives It's easy to think about sadness or even get angry and (7/33)
pissed off The way I remember this event or what I think about today is and this is from being there is the unity the patriotism How everyone came together? Didn't matter politics race gender what country you were from it didn't matter There's a traumatic event that impacted all of us and it quickly let us know What's really important in our lives you're living our families our freedoms But you're seeing everyone working together. You're looking at all the stores that were open and it wasn't a lot So the Starbucks McDonald's, you know restaurants and the workers went there. They were given free food free drinks to everyone People drove from places like Ohio Michigan, Pennsylvania, I mean eventually they would drive from California and everything like days later The firemen policemen from departments all over the country came to help All the looking through the rubble trying to find survivors With 77 police officers died 340 firemen died that day There was 23 battalion chiefs that (8/33)
responded Only four survived These are people that ran up 50 flights of stairs with 70 pounds worth of equipment Not one refused to go in To save the 2,000 people that are trapped above the fires and the towers when they were burning Okay, watch that 60 minutes piece unbelievable You're hearing those people get up to those floors trying to create a stairway trying to help these people get down before they collapsed So 2,000 people trapped above the fires and there was 17,000 people in the World Trade Center and those towers when the first plane hit these guys helped Say 14,000 people get out. I mean some got out right away. So there's a plane hit but you know, holy cow And just watching everything and see you bring it back those memories and those stories I mean, you know, we we do things on September 11 Not like we did this weekend and you had the people these firemen their kids wearing their you know father's Uniform and a lot of them following their father's footsteps just like I (9/33)
follow my dad's footsteps But after September 11 something interesting happened at least to my age group And my friends who lost friends or family members In September 11th that they winded up, you know, marrying their girlfriends a significant other married had kids Guess it's kind of like the baby boom years after the war in 1946 more babies were born that year than any other year is 20% more than 1945 but when you see something like that you live through it you start taking life more seriously And that's for anyone. It's not just a September 11th. It's a few you know, I For me losing my dad was huge. I was young. My dad was you know young he died very very young I let you hear that dies right and you don't have that person to be proud of you to sell you they're proud anymore I mean, it's a big of something. I I've never really dealt with emotionally And for me I took things more seriously Especially when it came to to work ethic I started focusing on my strengths a little bit more (10/33)
not letting them just you know, Okay, let talent waste away or anything like that, but you know just married kids family Hey my take from all this is don't wait for something traumatic to happen to To be the person that you're meant to be Everybody waits and you know, they mess around and have fun and you should have fun and enjoy it But that's the most important thing right enjoying it. There's so much anger out there Of a waddle of a bullshit over people making us shoes that want power, you know, it's just when you look at everything it's It's pretty insane right now. It's a crazy world But don't wait to be the person you're meant to be. I mean one of my favorite quotes is from Mark Twain when he says the two best days of your life for the day that you were born and The day you find out why? That's pretty powerful but for everyone out there listening find out why Cuz every day like September 11th and some of you again I wasn't even September 11th or something else is school shooting (11/33)
or something change life could be very very very short Very short and when you're dying there, you're taking your last few breaths. What are you gonna say? What are you gonna think? You say well, I lived a great life. I did everything everything I wanted to do when I was alive Are you wondering how you're gonna be remembered if this taught us anything guys live your life Live your life. Don't start tomorrow Start right now emotional time Hard transition to get into some questions here, but we will that's the new format tomorrow fantastic interview for you One of your favorite guests definitely gonna provide a really really two really great ideas. He's gonna provide two fantastic ideas. You're gonna love But in this format gets us some of your questions keep sentiment Frank curves of research calm Again not the easiest transition, but I'm gonna try to make it a little bit more fun after An emotional weekend at least for me from someone that's living in New York from someone who knows (12/33)
people that died from You're going through those emotions. It's pretty crazy. So I'm gonna try to transition is something that was fun this weekend Which is sports which is football. So Brendan asks. Hey, you know, I'm Frank who's going to win the Super Bowl Again tough transition, but let's have some fun. Okay, I Will say Tampa Bay Obviously is the favorite every year whoever wins a Super Bowl Everyone thinks that team's gonna win Super Bowl following year and they have most of the people intact and they did look okay They don't look great Everyone says Cowboys played great. They played awesome They got what three four turnovers and still lost but they didn't play good. They look pretty good But I will tell you what's against Tampa Bay right now two things one It's very difficult to win back-to-back Super Bowls haven't happened in a very very long time. Of course. That was with Brady And two and this is much more important is I have a good friend that went to the game and said in (13/33)
Tampa that they ran out of beer and ketchup at halftime They're gonna need their fans to win. They won that Super Bowl in Tampa Bay Stadium last year You better get some beer there. You better get some ketchup. Those are the two most important things beer ketchup. Boom Boom you ran out of halftime more supply issues. I Do like Cleveland as a sleeper I know quarterback issues will see We may feel has to play that good and he did throw away that interception, but they look good They have all the components. I got a great offensive line. They have great offensive weapons. Their defense is very very very good They have everything. I mean if Mayfield just need a little more confidence and be smarter. I think they're gonna be there They got a shot Saints look incredible that could be a sleeper Maybe the Eagles hurts looked amazing I think it was more of a fact me hurts did look amazing and they came out really strong to look great their offense look Great in sync, but they did play against (14/33)
Atlanta Atlanta look horrible. Let's you show up those ears, but the Eagles are first place That's all I care about. They're in first place Awesome. My top pick is the Chiefs. I mean last year You know you say well, you know, he threw some interception He didn't throw a touchdown throw a touchdown because his offensive line was terrible He had two three guys injured and I mean the second they stopped the ball He had two three guys in his face every he was running for his life Now they have one of the best offensive lines. They really shorted up Again Little rusty to come out and then Cleveland is tough Cleveland's like on paper. Cleveland's one of the best teams They're awesome, but I still like the Chiefs this year and of course Tampa Bay, but I'm gonna go with the Chiefs You got something to prove And some guys on defense as well But thanks for the question. And yes, we're allowed to enjoy football awesome happy footballs going on and it just so happened in one of the you know, one (15/33)
of the most emotional weeks So Mario says hey Frank love the podcast I agree with you 90% of the time Do you really I don't think my wife agrees with me that much 90% of the time then he says on politics and COVID. I love the rants Well, I'm writing today about the idea of a trend that I see I live in California very liberal upside-down Politics state political state my kids never touch a schoolroom in 2020. I have a seven and nine year old We have mass mandates everywhere. My kids are finally in school after 18 months But with masks on Regardless of lockdowns and all political BS we deal with in California one thing that never stopped and only got bigger and bigger is club sports My kids play both club soccer And other sports because it's expensive. We practice four times a week never stops regardless of COVID We have tournaments once a month sometimes with more than a thousand kids and he says thousands even the kids and hundreds of teams No masks at all This is just soccer. It's (16/33)
baseball softball, etc It's also not just California as we had time tournaments in San Diego It's East Washington, Texas Las Vegas coming from around the nation for tournaments Just Florida club sports are also big as we look at the moving there It's a sense of freedom or maybe just a political a COVID break. We all look for once we drive into the complex It's like we're back into 2019 My niece received a full 100% scholarship for softball and never played for a high school. Well sports is growing growing and Parents are throwing tons of money into it High school sports is dying as parents and athletes don't want politics or city-state associates with their sports is now my question How do we invest in this trend? We all use an app called team snap, which is used across all club sports, but they're not public I understand that Dick's morning It is a way to play this trend as a surgeon golf fishing camping any other way to feel free to mention But there has to be something out there (17/33)
Some ideas to tap in to this growth market Great question club sports is definitely huge Anyone has parents understands that at that that are athletes and it's very big in the recruiting process for colleges I don't know if you saw the percentages, but it's incredible I mean close to 80% of men and women became college athletes played club sports and You're seeing that a lot of people don't want to deal with the politics That's why I've removed my kid from the school. She's in you know, it's When you're going to a school Hey for me the way I look at it and I'll say this personally, I don't know how everybody else looks at it, but Those teachers that system should be doing the best interest of teaching my kid or in the best interest of my kid and also best interest of the parents and Right now that's not the case They're doing the best interest for themselves for the teachers for what they believe in and that's really fucked up so you could see like a big shift where You know some of (18/33)
the things that they're teaching why they it's not for the benefit the kids No, it's a benefit for themselves. It's a benefit for themselves. So you're seeing a lot of this Just let me get out of the political whatever side you're on. I want to get out of it I just feel that one my kids go to sports and enjoy it and my 13 year old Hey, then he said Talked about Biden and she saw a new story and she's like wow. I hate Biden I hate Biden and I told her I said, you know what don't say that I Said first of all, you shouldn't even be thinking about that right now Anything political at 13. Will you think of politics? Are you 13 holy cow was like in my mid 20s before that I started to care about this stuff 13 how does she have exposure to that? How does she exposure to this? I just all the YouTube channels all the conditioning all this craziness and social media It's like you just got to take them off of everything You know, sometimes some of that stuff is you know could be educational but (19/33)
come on I told I said listen don't don't watch anything. Don't think about anything your kid. Have fun. Go crazy You're in a tough school. She's got homework every day. But you know, I was like don't say that I don't want to hear it. Okay. I'm not gonna like condition her Whatever. She's gonna have her own opinions on different things the way she grows up and how she wants to world and that's okay And I was told you didn't have to hate the other side because I think differently today yes, you have to choose I hate you and you're an asshole and and you're not right no matter what no matter what facts you provide. I mean There's no negotiation. There's no middle ground. It's crazy So I see that Now to get to your question. Listen athletics apparel equipment space is insanely on fire The only thing I worry about is supply chain issues See them grow and grow and I was you know, talking about what everyone's talking about years now Not just months not just in the auto industry But (20/33)
everything but if you're looking at The names and athletics apparel equipment that space holy cow that the earned Lululemon I mean Lululemon had that highest expectations ever blew them out stocks at new highs underarm is doing great Amazing earnings last two quarters out and they report another one that stocks really gonna go Nike earnings weren't that great But that's because they really report a great earnings couple quarters before and it's still five percent off its all-time high Callaway golf just raised two great quarters just raised estimates again, right? So you see in those earnings and again those stock prices are gonna follow And continue to go higher. I don't see that stop at any time soon And we're like a secular uptrend in sports and apparel and golf golf people in one no golf They don't like now, you know They were forced to play it and one of the things you can play that was kind of cold friendly and you could take Two separate carts and you're outdoors and stuff. Now (21/33)
you start playing golf you're in It's hard. I mean, especially if you're an athlete because it's one of the hardest sports. It's just so difficult You got to be perfect and a few sports that you can play where you're great one day And it's like you never even play the next day. It's crazy But the best play on all this I think you mentioned it is dicks sporting goods The corner that they announced probably the best this earning season Just dialed in special dividend saying all almost every department's great in golf and but they sell what Nike Under Armour they sell all this stuff and that is the ultimate play on this because you don't know, you know Nike again They came out. I think the stock sold off a little bit and then you know, it's come back a little bit But you don't know maybe Under Armour drops the ball inventory concerns They did not able to fill up inventory and for the holiday season Which is a possibility for many of these retailers right now to the supply chain issues So (22/33)
when I look at this, yeah, I like dicks sporting goods. Probably the best play not a pure play But you know, I like what you're thinking. I love that. I love when you guys like hey, I'm seeing this How do I play it? That's how you should think And don't let it control your life like it does for me where you're going, you know I went to the mall this week I went to the mall this week because I am going away and going to Dallas on a business trip very important business trip and You know, I'll be back a couple days And I realized that since I lost 25 pounds I don't have a suit so I had to go to the mall and buy a suit and see if they get tailored luckily I found someone that could do it, you know on Saturday and I got on Sunday. I I couldn't get a space anywhere. I mean it was jammed jammed jammed. I mean, this is a place that has Hundreds and hundreds of stores stores. It has a mall and all hundreds of hundred stores everywhere. I Mean you couldn't get a space Going into not even (23/33)
parking a quarter of a mile away It was crazy and people it wasn't just like I want to get some everyone had bags. Everyone was buying stuff I had I never seen it more crowded than it was But you want to find out what stores are doing well who has crowds where they buying stuff Who's advertising the most right? Usually when you're advertising a lot means that you know You're gonna bring in a lot of revenue most likely for that quarter could be a good earnings quarter Seen a company that's dead, you know not used to advertising now you see the commercials everywhere Hey, but pay attention to this stuff it matters it matters. So I love where you're going with this. This is really really cool Marrow great great question. I get a lot of these, you know all the time Just you know what I'm what you're seeing in different markets and how to play it, you know And everyone is part of so if you have kids some of you just go to college Some of you are in different industries. That's how we able (24/33)
to get Understand how the supply chain issues guys. Come on. I was saying listen This is these guys are lying to you. These guys are lying the data right here These are from people in the industry Then you dig even further and then really talk to amazing amazing sources and saying hey to confirm it and it's like man These supply issues. It's a lot worse than you think it is. These guys are like, yeah, it's one two quarter problem No, no way try to buy a car right now. You're not get it for nine months Let you buy like the couple that just came onto the lot I mean it's insane it's insane But the way you get into trends the way you figure out things ahead of time is just by open up your eyes looking around You're paying attention. It's the easiest way to do it What your fan which the neighbors buying new cars Tesla's what's going on? Spending more money remodeling their homes going to Home Depot whatever Lowe's if You pay attention you're gonna know well ahead of everyone CNBC whose jobs (25/33)
who these guys are great and analysts and stuff like that You're not gonna see a lot of new boots on the ground research They're looking at numbers. They're on TV. They have to talk about all the stories not just the stories that they're good at again I had it I was there I was on doing that Fox CNBC You go in there. I had a whole thing of stories I was gonna talk about and did the research and wake up in the morning like nope new agenda. Here's what's the stories today? You're forced about talking about what's good that day or whatever I mean listen so a lot of these trends sneak up on you You don't hear about them on TV, but you know you see them because you're in these fields take advantage of that man That's real time. That's a huge advantage. You have over so many analysts out there So many of them. I'll help you with the numbers, but man you guys keep sending me emails like this Frank Here's a research calm that is absolutely awesome Last question here is from Jake. It's Frank. (26/33)
What is the biggest mistake you see investors make and thank you for all you do Biggest mistake you guys listening to me. That's a big mistake The biggest mistake I don't know The dollar down to one I Listen to the wrong people is a really big deal I like listening to a lot of people, but then I like you know listen to other opinions And then do the day you know just research myself Not doing the homework not really digging in but I think the biggest if I had a name one thing is risk management and I mean let's put this in an example say someone has bought Bitcoin and they bought in the hundreds and They're sitting on you know a million dollars two million dollars. If that's your first experience with investing. Holy cow Good luck because that never happens ever for some of the professionals in history I Gains like that we've seen some of those gains in a crypto intelligence newsletter, which is you know on fire Yeah, crypto take a little bit of hit here, and it's you know all over the (27/33)
place So very very strong and very high right I mean yes, it's come down from 66 But look where it was like a year and a half ago two years ago. I mean come on But how do you tell that person to dial it down a little bit or be smart like people say oh? I'm gonna hold big. I mean do you really want a whole Bitcoin forever? Maybe I mean you're gonna die with it What's the point right you want to make money and be able to spend it on your family and stuff? I guess Yeah, there's got to be a level where The investment doesn't make sense anymore Just has to be not everything's on Microsoft and Amazon forever Hey, maybe some of you You know hold forever or whatever But there has to be some level where you're like hey if it gets to this and then you analyze again And so you still see growth and that trend is still secular still intact But then how do you tell them to buy something and earn 10% interest you know 10% 10% used to be? Impossible now 10% is like an average gain you said tell people (28/33)
10% Like that's all I'm gonna make But they they take on an Excessive amount of risk and Tend to blow up their entire portfolio where it's okay to have a 15 20 25 percent loss even 35 percent loss if You're looking at that money having a 35 percent loss is going to go up to X 3 X. That's fine If that's your expectations, that's fine. If it doesn't happen. Yeah, you know you have stops, and you're out of it I see a lot of people hope their own gold stocks forever forever Yeah, they made a little bit of a move here and there, but come on for 10 years You're looking at the market look where the market with 10 years and look at gold And you got to be diversified But that all goes into risk management because I see so many investors and this isn't just young investors Are you seeing seasoned investors? that Lose all their capital Well the season investors don't lose all their capital. They lose everyone else's capital I mean you're looking at Ackman with Target was dead wrong on that one (29/33)
got wrecked cuz he tried to play it through Derivatives long term capital management that was run by Nobel Prize winning economists now Wall Street traders These are supposed to be the smartest guys in a room. There's a big difference between Nobel Prize Economists and Being an analyst it's huge. It's a difference between Michael Jordan playing basketball and playing baseball It's different just because he's an amazing athlete doesn't mean he's great in everything just cuz you're a doctor doesn't mean you're a doctor at everything Gotta be careful with this shit David Einhorn shorting Tesla since 2018 keep shorting it keep shorting it keep shorting, but being stubborn. I think it is you know not I've been through this that's what I'm telling you a being stubborn just doesn't work He could be stubborn stubborn stubborn and you're pissed off, and he just doesn't work that's one of the biggest things I see because Not having at least a little bit of a discipline You never want to risk all (30/33)
your capital Maybe some of you do a lot of people become billionaires by doing that. That's fine Just understand that make sure that return is worth the risk you're taking but remember when you lose everything You're Probably losing everything maybe not the stock goes down But the whole market goes down and maybe you had options or whatever you put you know time value on it Which is you know difficult you could be right on your thesis, but just wrong on the timing And if you're playing it through options, you're dead you lose everything short of the wrong stock You saw that with GameStop at AMC how many you know so-called smart people got wrecked So you want to always protect yourself because when you see that market you know market coming down That's the time you want to buy I mean if you got wrecked during Covid and you had you know options or just whatever now you lost all your money at a time where was one of the greatest Buying opportunity we said it's gonna be one of the greatest (31/33)
buying opportunity to all money flooding into the market You know and we got back in a lot of our stocks did very very very well If you want to be buying when the market crashes if you're getting wrecked because you have no discipline and no stops or anything You know you should be buying at a time when a lot of people do the opposite You know they sell when stocks get crushed and they buy as they go higher even though you know Buying stocks that go higher seems to be a great strategy these days with growth depending on which stocks Do you buy that's probably the biggest mistake that I see all right guys continue sending your questions for this segment new format Franker's research comm Great interview coming up tomorrow someone who is I would say in the top three when it comes to performance and dollar stock club where If you're not familiar dollar stock we take one pick from our guests each week write it up include a buy up to price a stop Basically getting an amazing idea from some (32/33)
of the best analysts in the world that I interview for a dollar a week Doesn't get better than that trust me. I've been this industry for 30 years You're not gonna get better than that and these are great guys But this person's gonna some great ideas with past 12 months so definitely definitely listen tomorrow's interview And that's it for me really appreciate all the support And I'll see you guys tomorrow take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (33/33)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's February 15th. I'm Frank Curzio. This is the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. A little bit under the weather. Don't worry. It's not COVID. Got all the free tests they send you. Like four of them. Took one already. I'm okay. Six for most of the weekend. Very, very busy this week. My oldest daughter turned 14. That was on the 12th. So that was on Saturday. Then my mom turned 79 the next day on the 13th. So happy birthday to both. Then on 14th, you have Valentine's Day. So having two daughters, my wife, my mom, I mean all happy stuff, but I probably spent more money in the past few days than what most people wagered on the Super Bowl. So if you do see some of those offers from my (1/33)
newsletter this week, you know why. But everything happens all at once, and it's crazy. But speaking of the Super Bowl, man, I'm sorry. I got this one right. I'm usually wrong. More than 80% of the time, I'm usually wrong. This one, I actually got right. Cincy covered with the points all because somebody missed an extra point. Remember, I want everybody to bet against me. I actually had Cincy to win the game, but took them with the points, and that spread was four. It went from four and a half to four right before the game, and they went up winning by three. So they covered. Again, that Muffet extra point was really, really big. But how good is Vegas on that spread? I mean, they nailed it, right? That's the spread. That's it. All the numbers, analytics. Those of you who think that you could beat the system, I mean, that spread was absolutely perfect. Absolutely perfect. Also went two for three in my prop bets. So Jeffson, which is the wide receiver for the Rams, he didn't score the (2/33)
first CD. But Stafford threw two interceptions, like I predicted, and Jesse Bates did have an interception. Probably won some money on that. But looking at the game, I mean, it was a good game, but the ending was kind of like, eh. And it just felt like Cincy should have won. I mean, shutting down the run game, it just felt like they should have won that game. In the first fourth down, they went on that opener series absolutely terrible. He gave the Rams momentum right off the bat, and he was like 14-3. 13-3 because they missed an extra point. Fourth their way back, second half came out on fire. But you look at the last series of the game, where it's third and one from the 50, and you hand the ball off, and Mixon looked like he was going to get the first down, but he just danced around, and they nailed him before he got the first down. So now it's fourth and one. So what do you do? You go freaking shotgun. You need a half a yard, and you're five yards behind the scrimmage to just get (3/33)
one yard. And you have nobody in the backfield. Now remember, the fourth quarter, the Rams started breaking through every single play, every single possession in the second half. They were breaking through, breaking through, breaking through. Not in the second half, but in the fourth quarter. So now you put no help there, and you take the snap, and what happens? You wind up getting sacked, which if you just put one guy to help out, the chaser's wide open on that play. It would have been, I don't know, game over, but they would have scored a touchdown. It was wide open. And Ramsey fell into play again. So I just didn't like that play call. What happened to quarterback sneaks? You need a half a yard quarterback sneak? So the Rams did it on fourth and one, and they handed it off to Cooper Cuff, which by the way, another thing with the coaching with the Bengals, Odell Beckham was having an amazing game. He was on fire. Confidence probably would have been an MVP if I had to guess. And then (4/33)
he went out. He got hurt. You have one guy, right? Your running game is terrible for the Rams. You have one guy, which is Cooper Cuff. How does he score? Not even score the last touchdown, but get four catches on the last drive? I mean, imagine if Belichick was the coach, there's no way he catches one pass in that drive. I mean, you can't really... Outside of Jefferson, you can't even name another wide receiver on that team. So I think Cincinnati had them. They had the shot to win. It's just, I didn't like the play call at the end, but it was a good game. Congratulations to the Rams. My apologies, because usually I'm wrong on this and get this right, but this one, yes, we actually won, which is sad, because it defeats the whole purpose of the whole segment, because I'm always wrong on this. But that four points, I thought it was a lock, especially in the first quarter, 14-3 or 13-3. Keeps saying 14. They missed the extra point and fumbled that. But I thought we were on our way to (5/33)
another loss, which would have been a win for you guys. And I'd rather all the time that you guys... I'd rather be wrong and have you make money than be right and you don't make money. Seriously, that's what I'd rather have. My apologies. Congratulations to the Rams. Great Super Bowl. Now, getting to the markets, getting lots of questions. Get lots of questions on Canada, too. Man, it's crazy, man. Canada's nuts. I have so many friends in Canada, so many good friends in Canada. I love speaking at conferences. Holy shit, is it crazy there? Absolutely nuts. Convoys and stuff like that. Also getting questions on Russia and the Ukraine, which is really driving the markets, especially over the past four or five trading days. We're looking at today when the market's going up because they say Russia is backing down, not going to invade Ukraine. And that's a story. Will they invade Ukraine? If so, it's going to probably result in oil prices going higher, at least in the short term, stocks (6/33)
going lower due to uncertainty. Since Biden said that if Russia invades Ukraine, there's going to be severe costs, right? Severe costs and insinuating that many people thought that US might go to war with Russia. Again, the general public thought that because they had to come out two days ago and say, it doesn't mean we're going to war with them or doing anything crazy. It's just severe costs. Sanctions and stuff like that. They actually had to come out and say that. They said that because there was such misinterpretation that people were like, why are we messing with Russia here? And I've been doing a lot of homework on this because the media, we all know they have an agenda. They all get together. They all say the same exact things. That's the media. We've seen that through COVID. We've seen it the past two years ridiculously, even less less lecture. I love when you're reading stories and they're saying, well, we have no idea why Putin is doing this. Why is it being asked? Why is it (7/33)
going to invade Ukraine? They say that Russia is this terrible nation we need to fear. Now, look, I'm going to do something that's absolutely crazy right now. It's something the media is never going to do, something that can get me loads of trouble. Something that can get me kicked off of a lot of media platforms, but I'm going to do it anyway. You know what that is? I'm going to tell you the truth. Russia has every right to invade Ukraine and wipe it off the face of the earth. And if that happens, Ukraine will deserve it. Hear me out. Nobody's saying this in the media, again, because they're not allowed to. You work for whatever company. You have to support their agenda. I think people listen because there's no bullshit podcast. I'm going to tell you exactly how it is, just like I told you exactly how it was with COVID and we've seen all this shit. Get masks don't really work. The vaccines. Not anti-vaccine or anything, as you guys know, but a lot of the stories are bringing up with (8/33)
people getting pissed are turning out to be very, very true. And more and more doctors are finally being allowed to say stuff, even with Wuhan and China and stuff like that, finally, if you said they got kicked off platforms. But anyway, let's get to Russia and Ukraine, because first, Ukraine, if you're looking at them as a nation, they're probably the most corrupt nation out there. One of them. If you'll get every presidential election since 1991, to start presidential elections, it's been corrupt. The first president elected, that guy ended up resigning. The second president got elected in 2004, only because the election was rigged. So in 2010, the next president took office and now it's until 2014 and that's when, and I'm going to bring up some names here, Proshenko came in to power and it was a coup. And that's how he became president. Now Proshenko became president, he's pro Europe, pro democracy, so he says, right, so he said, which is great for the world. So Europe was happy (9/33)
about this and they support him and so did the US, where President Obama signed a pact to help Ukraine battle corruption and it was a non-lethal military assistance agreement. Non-lethal, right? Because we want to provide weapons and stuff, right, because it's direct conflict with Russia. President Obama did a good job, right? He said, you know what, you know what I'm going to do for you, Ukraine, that you guys want to end the corruption and poverty and stuff. He's like, I'm going to do something special. I'm going to send my vice president, Joe Biden, over to you, okay? I'm going to call him the chief envoy. I'm going to send them to you guys and he's going to work with you, work everything out. I know I ran against him. I know I said don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up. That's what Obama said, but he's not going to fuck this up, I promise. He's going to go there, it's going to be fun. And of course, that's what we found out, Hunter Biden's getting paid a million (10/33)
dollars to sit on the board of Ukrainian natural resource company, which was run by the natural resource minister of Ukraine, even though he has no experience in the natural resource industry. I don't know why he got that job. So when we're looking at Biden, now his president is very, very familiar with the Ukraine, very attached to Ukraine. It's in his best interest to help them out. This is not an attack on Biden or the Democrats and just reporting facts, because this gets a lot better. So those of you who love your Republicans, well, in 2017, Trump was president. He decided to approve an arms sale to Ukraine. He said, here's the weapons, hundreds of millions of dollars worth. Here you go, this military aid to Ukraine to help fight Russia in case of invasion. I mean, think about that for a minute. Imagine if China or North Korea provided military aid to Canada and Mexico sold them arms. I mean, how would we feel in the US? But even more important, you have to love the irony here, (11/33)
since the Democrats' ultimate agenda to remove Trump from office was to create this whole fake narrative about how Russia helped him win the election. Not only is the story 100% not true, and I think Hillary, I don't know, in today's times, now you get caught on camera doing shit and you still don't get in trouble, but Hillary is probably a lot of...hacking the server of the White House and having proof of that? Good luck. Good luck. But why would Russia support Trump, who just armed Russia's greatest enemy with weapons? Right? I mean, he never asked that question. He didn't care. They just went with the agenda. They reported this shit that was 100% fake, still haven't apologized, and we all believe the BS. Now, through Proshenko's presidency, he promised a lot of things like every politician does and failed to deliver. Again, like every politician does. So in 2019, he lost his presidency to Zelensky, the current president. This is a comedian. He's an actor. No political experience. (12/33)
Easily won. That's what happens when you have charisma, right? Getting 70% of the vote. He campaigned against poverty, corruption. Ukraine has been corrupt forever, 30 years, almost every single election, and it's kind of similar to the Democrats' campaign to help all poor people in major cities, and 40 years have passed and these people are poorer than ever. And they're still going to vote Democrat forever, which is kind of interesting. But Zelensky, his party also won the majority of parliament seats, and that was a big deal. So for the first time since Ukraine's independence, the president had a majority party in parliament, meaning that this guy could do whatever the fuck he wants. And that's exactly what he did. He started arresting pro-Moscow businessmen, seized the assets of the biggest backers to the opposition party, arrested anyone that disagreed with his agenda, shut down three pro-Russia TV channels alleging that they're spreading misinformation, shut down radio stations. (13/33)
So Ukraine is basically a dictatorship, right? It's not a pro-democratic nation. Now here's Russia. This powerful nation, superpower with massive resources. Russia doesn't really bother anyone. I mean, Russia is not a threat to the US. It's not like Americans would be in danger of going to major cities in Russia. It's not like North Korea. It's not some crazy nation looking to take over the world. If North Korea had the technology, they'd bomb everybody, but they don't have the technology. Not like China who murdered 6 million people creating coronavirus in a lab, but they still will not let anyone go into Wuhan and inspect anything. Nope, you're not allowed to be here. Nope, no way, no way, right? Or China, how they steal all of our technology, lie about climate change, where they're using more coal than ever. Take a look at Peabody and arch resources results. They just reported, look at those results. They're generating more free cash flow than their market caps of the company. (14/33)
That's how much... What happened to coal? It's supposed to disappear. They're producing it like crazy and selling it to China. Why is China doing that? Because they're going to be a powerhouse. They're bullshitting about this climate change and all this crap. Look at us. We increase our dependency on foreign natural resources because we refuse to drill in our own backyard. We have new resources, wind, solar to pick up that slack. That's why you've seen energy prices go crazy. China's coal like... Hey, they run the world. You have the energy, energy runs the world. Good for them. That's what they're doing. Not only that, China... Again, Russia is not like China, where China has every one of our politicians, major corporations on their payroll. Go do your research. It's not hard to find. This isn't a conspiracy theory. Just look. It's why in the US we can never say anything bad about China. We're a free nation. We cannot say... We cannot say... You got kicked off social media for saying (15/33)
that China started the coronavirus in a lab in Wuhan, which we know is fact. You get kicked off social media for that. You know what our response is when we're mad at China? You know what our politicians do? We're going to boycott the Olympics. Boycott the Olympics. You want to go there anyway. Anybody watching the Olympics said, oh, nobody care? Sad, but nobody really cares. They're going to make it all nice and pretty right now. But in the background, man, the cold productions... Even France said we have to produce more coal. We can't afford it with natural gas to fund electricity. We can't do it. You can't say anything bad about China. You're not allowed to, ever. But Russia, Russia is not some crazy enemy. They should be more pissed at us than anything. We crave fake stories about Putin and their government rigged our elections and for three years trashing these guys when this story is 100% fake. They have every reason to despise us. Now Putin made it very clear to the Ukraine. He (16/33)
said, look, you're a free country. We'll leave you alone. Just don't do two things. Don't touch Crimea and don't join NATO. If you do, we're going to blow you off the map. Just don't do that. And what did this idiot do? Exactly the opposite. Trying to join NATO and they want to take over Crimea. Crimea is a key property. It gives Moscow access to naval bases. It's home to the Black Sea fleet. But more importantly, when you're looking at the Black Sea, it's a major warm water, deep water port. Meaning you could ship goods year round, very, very important, doesn't freeze, and massive ships can pass through, which allows Russia to ship its natural resources and other goods between Europe and Central Asia to the biggest markets in the world outside of the US. The big deal. And Russia took this over because they can and it made sense to them. They know nobody could really get involved or stop them like Europe or the US. And they did it. Annexed. The people were pissed about it. But hey, (17/33)
they had the power to do it and they did it, which is not our problem. Not our problem. But NATO, getting to NATO, the reason why they want to join NATO, and NATO is great. So NATO is not like the UN. The UN is designed for peace. NATO is designed for war, to fight war. It's a collective defense, meaning if someone attacks a member of NATO, it attacks all the members of NATO. Meaning if Ukraine was accepted into NATO and then Russia invaded, it would be like declaring war on the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, almost all European countries who are in NATO. That's why Ukraine wants to become a member of NATO, which by the way, takes 20 years to complete the plan to get in. Where Ukraine only filed in 2008 and they have special agreements like we're partnering with NATO and they call it different. They're not in NATO and they'll never be accepted into NATO because they're a dictatorship now and it's a corrupt nation. They're never going to be accepted into NATO. But they're trying to (18/33)
and trying to smooth it all because they want that power. So as Ukraine, Ukraine, they continue to poke the bear, which is Russia, where Putin said, he said outright, he's saying it in speeches everywhere because you join NATO, it's a direct threat to us. If you do, we're going to take over your country. And honestly, I see his point. Ukraine joining NATO is like Canada and Mexico joining a special alliance with North Korea and China. Would we allow that? And by doing so, Mexico and Canada would give our greatest enemies access to our borders. I don't even know what's going on there. So the US is a powerful nation. We'd do the same exact thing Russia's doing right now. We'd literally invade Canada and Mexico probably at the same time if they signed such an agreement. That brings us to the US. How will we involve in this mess? Why do we care? And we're really willing to support Ukraine, this corrupt dictatorship who's picking a fight with a superpower that really doesn't want to go to (19/33)
war with them. If they did, they would have took them over in 2004. And since 2013, Russia has been saying this, since 2013, look, you're independent, have your own country, don't go into NATO, and don't touch Crimea. Simple. Since 2013, go back. But we're going to have major conflicts with Russia over this? Again, who's no threat to us like China, North Korea want to take over the world. And again, have all of our politicians, major corporations on payroll, like Coca-Cola won't say anything bad, none of these companies, the NBA won't say any bad, LeBron James doesn't say anything bad about China, no, no, no, it's all about money. It's the biggest growth market in the world. China was the biggest growth market in the world, same thing. We'd see our corporations defending them as well, but they're not, unless you're into resources and stuff like that. If we're really going to get into a fight with Russia, it should be because we want to take over the natural resources and increase our (20/33)
world dominance, not because some garbage corrupt country that doesn't support our values and freedoms, who has a comedian as president, who announced on Sunday or Monday morning, the date that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, and then said, no, no, no, I was just joking, which significantly moved the markets. You're just joking about war, hundreds of thousands of people, there's impacts and markets across the world. Oh, I was just being sarcastic. Again, comedian background. But we're really going to get involved just because Ukraine, this corrupt nation, wants to become more powerful? Anyway, war is up to Ukraine. If they don't join NATO or stop talking about joining NATO, which again, it's never going to happen anyway, they'll never get accepted into NATO, and leave Crimea as is, then Russia won't invade, leave them alone. They said that clear as day. Either way, as a US investor with plans on holding stocks in the long term, it's just a non-event. I said the same thing about (21/33)
tariffs. I know you think it's crazy and it moves the markets. As a trader, if you see this invasion, oil will go higher. Again, it doesn't seem likely after today's news, when we hear that they're backing up, moving troops, we'll see. That's today, could change later on, doing this mid-afternoon. Stocks will fall initially due to uncertainty, but it'll be short-lived. It's just using the pullback to buy some of your favorite names. A lot of these names are turned down tremendously already. So anyway, that's the truth. If you want to hear the truth, that's the truth. Do some research on it, do it from non-biased sites and go out there and you'll see and you'll know why Putin wants to invade Ukraine. You'll see the corruption. Go back and look at the history in Ukraine, for every presidency, every one. It's like marked by some kind of coup or some kind of just fake election, the corruption, the promises, and they have all this power. It's scary when you have all that power and you can (22/33)
do whatever you want. That's what they're trying to do. Being run by a comedian who has no political experience of how to talk to people or anything, it's pretty crazy. And while you're shutting down the media and everything else, you're shutting down those outlets because people are starting to change. You're saying, look, we don't want to go to war. Leave Russia alone. They're leaving us alone. Leave us alone. And you can't blame Russia. Join NATO, you're going to have Europe and the US controlling right next to your border. Why would Russia want that if they can control it? They can control it. They can because no one's going to do anything if they invade. We could talk a big game and sanctions and all this garbage, but the bottom line, they funnel all their energy, all their resources to Europe. Europe cannot fuck with Russia ever, ever, ever. Russia is much, much more powerful. They shut that off. You saw that when they shut off the Ukraine. They shut off, forget it. I mean, they (23/33)
have that new pipeline they just built. It goes under the Baltic Sea that goes right to Germany. When you have natural resources, you are extremely powerful as a nation. So Russia has, US has. That's why Japan's economy is not doing that well. They don't have those natural resources. Not a coincidence that those are the most powerful nations in the world. But this whole thing about how Russia is the enemy and why are we involved in this? Why is the US involved? Well, we know why they're involved in this, right? I mean, Biden has huge, huge ties to this, but come on, this is crazy. This has nothing to do with us. Get out of it. We're really going to fight. Instead of worrying about our borders here, our cities where crime is through the roof and folks are not making our country better, we're fighting this corrupt nation's war for them and picking a fight with a superpower? Are you out of your mind? And what the hell is wrong with us? What's going on? Anyway, I don't see this happening, (24/33)
even if it does. It's going to be short-lived, see a little disruption in the markets. But again, I use it as a buying opportunity. If you're a long-term investor, I wouldn't worry about this much. Just like I said about tariffs where tens of billions of stories are written about China and tariffs are crazy and these wars, border, whatever, trade wars with China and all of it was garbage and stock market went up and up and up and up and up and kept going up, right, because China has no choice. China cannot do anything. We purchased those goods. We could purchase those goods from anywhere we want. Yes, we'd pay more to go to other places in Asia, but China needs us. We have the money. China needs us. They're not going to sell treasuries. They're not going to do anything crazy. They can't. They need us. So they could bark and talk a big game as much as they want, but China wasn't doing anything. They have no choice. They had to listen to us. Of course, you're going to bark and make a lot (25/33)
of noise and that's what you want to do and show power, but at the end of the day, they couldn't do anything. It's like, yeah, we really can't do anything if Russia decides to invade Ukraine. We can't. And if it happens, it happens, but if you're holding your stocks, you plan to hold them longer than nine months, 12 months, which a lot of stocks in our portfolio, then you might see a little bit of a decline, but don't go crazy. Actually, you might be able to use that opportunity to buy some of your favorite names at a cheaper price. So I want to thank all of you since this is probably my last podcast that you'll see on iTunes or YouTube for telling the truth since big tech hates when you tell the truth on their platforms, but position yourselves accordingly. So guys, I'm running a special promotion for Moneyflow Trader. Why am I doing that? I'm not doing that because I spent a lot of money on Valentine's Day parties. I was only kidding about that. It's because we're getting a lot of (26/33)
questions on it because it's more volatile in the market than ever. People want to know how to play this and this is why I provide this newsletter. Granted, it was a little bit early. I started this three years ago. I didn't expect the government to go crazy and inject $19 trillion into the marketplace and tax reforms would get passed so quick where 2017-18 resulted in an explosion in earnings for these companies. But we knew that the market's not going to go up forever, 12 straight years for the NASDAQ and we're seeing this crazy volatility right now. So I pride this off of you in December saying that now's the time to protect yourselves. There's a big fundamental change in the market. We're going to see more volatility than ever since the credit crisis. Now the Fed is in full tightening mode and they have no choice. I love when people say the Fed's not going to raise more than three, four times. They don't have a choice. You got to take money out of the system. You see the PPI number (27/33)
today? Record high. CPI. I mean that's a record high, all time high. If you use the same formula you used back in the 80s, there's no comparison. Of course, we made so many revisions to try to make that number in the CPI stay as low as possible but 7.5%, remember that 2% benchmark that we had? We'll start raising rates once it hits 2%, 7.5%. It's going higher still, right? 12 months ago now, it's 12 months ago. You've been saying that it's transitory. Obviously you took that away in November and said, okay, it's not transitory. We get it. But we're definitely getting a 50 basis rate hike. And we're probably going to get two of those in a row and maybe that's factored in. But the Fed, it's not like they're not going to do it. I love when people say, well, the Fed, they're not going to do it. They have to do it. I mean, prices are out of control. Supply chain issues still exist. All of a sudden they came back seeing more demand. But in the middle of all this, what does it do? It creates (28/33)
massive volatility. So Moneyflow Trader, and this is Ginnia, Terranova, just booked 165% gain in one of our positions that tanked after earnings and she did this by buying long dated puts, which is a super easy strategy you could use in typical online accounts. Bets against stocks over a 12 month timeframe where if you see a stock over that period, move lower by 15, 20%, you're going to make a pretty big score on it. And we've seen companies like Facebook and PayPal, two massive companies, fall by these amounts in a day. That's how crazy this market is right now. But this is a way to protect your portfolio. There's times when we all in, go aggressive. We've done a great job of that. We're leading up to COVID, pulling chips off the table, going back in a couple months later, but it's been a bull market, low interest rates, money flowing into the system, the Fed buying bonds, a perfect environment to take as much leverage as you possibly can, take on risk, risk access surged, those days (29/33)
are over. Now you got to protect your portfolio. So I created this product for this type of market, granted, again, created a little bit early, thinking that we wouldn't see those massive tax cuts that Trump passed. And the government inject $19 trillion into the system, which now has to be removed. It's actually not funny, but our government has to take some money out of the system. That's why you see a lot of companies get smoked, especially those without earnings, those trading at the same valuations, and they're still trading at the same valuations, there's a lot of risk to them. But just having one of these companies for 40%, 50%, which we saw this in most small caps from November through January, you could easily make 3X to 10X on just one of these positions, enough to be worth more than your entire portfolio. But buying puts, guys, real quick, it's not shorting, I'm not telling you to short stocks, you don't have unlimited risk, a stock can go to infinity. And in today's day and (30/33)
age, we have a Ukraine president who's a comedian that just told us he was only kidding about war, that moved oil in the markets tremendously, so you can get crushed shorting at the wrong time, especially a meme stock, where all of a sudden, Robinhood went to 80 before it is, where is it, 15, over a quick period, and it'll blow out of the position and you get just massive short covering and that stock keeps rising, you get murdered. This isn't that. You only lose the amount of money you put into the trade. It's the perfect strategy for the perfect market where conditions will be like this at least for the next 18 months during which the Fed is tightening, stop buying bonds, and you need to protect yourself. So if you're on an email list, you're going to email with that special offer, it's the last time you're going to see that special price we offer in December, you'll get it now because we're getting lots of inquiries about becoming a member of Moneyflow Trader, of course, now that (31/33)
the market is down and I see it in people who are nervous now, I get it. My job is not just to give you stock recommendations that you're going to make money on, but I realized over my 30-year career, when you protect investors, then they become a subscriber for life because there's times you'll be aggressive, markets usually go up and down, I know we're used to seeing a market go up a long time, especially for new investors that start in 2010, 11, 12, 13, whatever, I get it. You're used to bull markets and this is so easy, it's not like that. Especially when you're taking the Fed and the money out of the system, you're taking the punch bowl away, it's much, much, much more difficult to make money in this market, it's a stock picker's market, it's dangerous, there's a lot of stocks that are going to see 30, 40% declines from here and you need just one of those to make a massive score. And you need it already just locked in 165% gain and this is by buying puts on a cloud company or data (32/33)
analytic company that just got crushed. So if you think there's stocks out there that could get crushed, this is a great newsletter for you, if not, no worries, but a lot of you on our email list, if you're not, you can sign up to our email list at curzioresearch.com and we'll be offering that for the rest of this week and then that would be it. We're going to close that special price to you. So if you're interested, okay, if not, no worries. But guys, that's it for me. I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of questions and comments on this podcast, so keep them coming, frankcurzioresearch.com. Love you guys, really appreciate all the support. Thank you, because downloads are really, really surging. I guess a lot of you guys talk about the podcast, record downloads, continues to hit new records, really, really exciting stuff, so I just want to say I really, really appreciate that. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (33/33)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there into the July 12th Thank you. It's the wall Street unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Just came back from the meta expo in Vegas just five days Literally like just came back one in the morning yesterday probably here a little bit my voice Amazing amazing conference Several of my investors show up glad they did a chance to meet them in person share my vision with them There's a lot of fun a lot of companies They shouldn't have had it at the Consumer Electronics Show where the Consumer Electronics Show is which is The conference center because it was really big these guys from the Netherlands probably better a casino because it looked like it was There was not a lot of people there because it was so spread out in (1/34)
that man The place is so big four million plus square feet obviously use a small portion of that But the companies in attendance were just incredible the people I met incredible in my keynote presentation Which is on Saturday I talked about How the game changer in this industry came in October And that's when Facebook announced it would change its name to meta you could say well We had all this books that we read and ready player one and Facebook horizons and incorporating everything Mostly a virtual platform and all this stuff the central ain't coming out in 2020. That wasn't it the game changer Was in Facebook changes name? Now that's a big story on its own You're looking at a trillion dollar market cap company when the largest at the time One of the companies that own the internet next to Google Amazon Apple Microsoft I mean they're sitting the living room close to three billion people over 35% of the world's population So now this Facebook know what these three billion people want (2/34)
since These users actually post their entire lives and social media accounts but more importantly Facebook's algos they can predict what the users will want in the future based on tracking them and everything They love to post and say and do so when Facebook changes name to meta and its entire business model And is the business generated a hundred and fifteen billion dollars in revenue last year Close to 50 cent annualized growth over the past four years and still growing by the way This is a company to generate 85 billion in 2020 and 115 billion in 2021 So it's not like we're seeing a massive slowdown different technology, which is forcing this transition like we're seeing maybe with Netflix who's now going in well say all in on an ad model to help grow sales as Streaming is slowing, but I've never seen a company do anything close to this significant. It's unprecedented To change that quickly But make no mistake this was not Zuckerberg or its management team saying hey, you know what (3/34)
I have a feeling This is gonna be big no way This is a calculated move based on data that tracks three of the five billion people who are on the internet Now why was this the news? Why was this the game changer because once Facebook made this announcement? Everybody started paying attention, especially the most important people Which is major investment banks sell side research These firms over the next two three months started covering the metaverse and they weren't like hey, this is pretty cool Let's get Goldman Sachs wrote a 29 page report Highlighting how the metaverse could be a 12 trillion dollar trend Morgan Stanley a 30 page report a 10 trillion dollar trend Citigroup a hundred and eighty seven page report saying this could be a 13 trillion dollar trend Jeffries Interviewed some of the top people in the industry. These are detailed reports. You have to understand. This isn't just like a one or two page report and These reports are going to their entire client base, which is (4/34)
filled with multi-millionaires billionaires And these firms have trillions an asset of the management and they're telling you get prepared right now So for me you guys listen to this podcast, you know, if I Wall Street research religiously over my career I was in that world and it's over 30 years Two things that stood out about these reports, which I read every word all of them One were how detailed they were This wasn't just like hey, let me put when they say 13 trillion dollars Wall Street firms They did not like what you hear in the media what you might read someplace where? They're like, I think this is gonna be a huge industry. They calculate and put numbers behind it and It was very detailed. They have to model. They can't just take a number out of thin air and say here you go This is where it's gonna be. That's how they get their targets from again. You could disagree with the targets or whatever the predictions whatever They were highlighting how many hours there's market (5/34)
Stanley broke it down by how many hours People spend on the internet and times that by how much The metaverse could capture over the next five years seven years Then you had how much digital market share that they can capture That's How Goldman and city model it out, but it was very detailed doing interviews with top people the industry It was crazy So you're looking at the details, but more importantly it was the actual Prediction the total addressable market predictions of how big these firms think there would be by 23rd net now Let me put this perspective because we throw around trillions like nothing trillions all the time. It's it's not a big word anymore Yeah, it's okay. It was trillion dollar industry here and there and you know what was it? Bitcoin and crypto was two trillion less than a trillion dollars You have 11 trillion dollars thrown into this market which seen inflation right through the roof. We know why It's amazing at Vegas go to Vegas. Holy shit As soon as I went (6/34)
there I got there at one o'clock check-in was three So I got there Thursday, and then I wanted to go set up the booth Because We had a whole media booth so I said alright Let me see if I could check in early instead of going straight to the convention center and the very first thing They're like hey. How you doing by the way. There's gonna be I think it was a $20 fee for checking in early 20 feet the room is ready right the rooms ready on Thursday, so it's not like it's Friday Saturday Sunday He had $20 fee I said oh, that's surprised then they charged me another $180 for resort fees Which I did not see anywhere so when you're using sites now if using Expedia using price line It used to be that that was the full amount. This is the full amount. They're charging you now you're going there It was an extra $180. I had to pay so you're out just fees fees fee I mean the inflation there is this incredibly I mean you're spending so much money It's insane so much money to where was I paid $25 (7/34)
for a drink one night $25 for a drink if you're you're lucky if you're paying less than $10 for a beer It's insane so trillions we all know trillions right so the second part is proposed a total dress on mark these guys talking trillions Let's put that in perspective If you'll get an AI Expect to be a 1.5 trillion dollar industry cloud 1.5 trillion dollar industry 5g 1.6 trillion dollars you're familiar with all those Gaming 500 billion dollar industry EVs 800 billion dollar industry. This is all by 2030 It's a rough estimate of a bunch of predictions Or an average Do you come on all of those trends? That's six trillion combined These are mega trends which we all know Highlight a lot of these things we're gonna come electronic show Maybe you invested in these trends and invested early Okay so combined six trillion dollars yet the metaverse these guys are expected to be a ten Trillion dollar trend again, that's average of almost all the reports. I read it's crazy when you think about it (8/34)
I mean you guys are familiar with AI cloud EVs gaming of course 5g Ten trillion dollars more than these incredible innovative revolutionary trends combined but but Predictions are just predictions suppose have millions of EVs on the road by now She's addicted by 4gm most of major auto manufacturers three years ago 3d TVs are supposed to be big so have drones everywhere by now delivering anything We want right to our doorstep supposed to have all this stuff so predictions are predictions So as an analyst that read probably ten thousand plus sell-side reports over my career I Take predictions with green soft because most of them a BS, but what I do take seriously Is the money When people are not just predicting something and saying oh I expect this to be this or that it's when they're actually investing in it and putting investment capital behind it and this year 2022 only halfway through Over a hundred and twenty billion has already flowed in to the metaverse a hundred and twenty (9/34)
billion already I want you to think about that and this money is coming from lots of big players Tech leaders like Google Facebook Microsoft Amazon Ancient Horace was one of the biggest most deceased venture capital firms in the world They just raised four and a half billion dollars to invest in web3 metaverse and FT companies in a blink of an eye in a blink of an eye This massive amount of money flowing into the metaverse right now in the first six months I mean really need to think about it because what are we seeing we're in a recession We're not used to seeing money like this flow and you're looking at deals look at IPOs quickly shelf Look at SPACs gone Company's trying to raise funding almost impossible unless unless You have a company That's focused on a web 3 metaverse NFTs You do not see this during these types of markets when we're whatever you could say we're in a session Not a recession pretty close to a session the markets getting crushed home price start to come down now (10/34)
Interest rates are going up harder access to capital You don't see this you usually see a total freeze and everything across the board and you're not seeing it that people have money are Going to invest and they're investing right now into this trend Now why are they doing it now? Why aren't they waiting a little bit? It's because the metaverse is here Right now it's not gonna take place a couple of years from now So how I get position myself for three years four years five years My interview over 50 of the presenters at the meta Expo which you're gonna have total access to all that amazing content How do you entrepreneurs developers influence company that are building our own metaverse? And I extend where do you see the metaverse in a couple of years? And most I'm like well, it's gonna take a couple years get adopted and connect all these things and everything around it But it's gonna take a couple of years, but we're positioned right now so you still think When it comes to mainstream (11/34)
where people are not just talking about but actually in the metaverse and buying stuff. That's their take That's their take Based on my research. It's someone has a pretty good track record of getting people into revolution tech trends Before the entire world knows about them the adoption into the metaverse It's gonna take like six months Now I'm talking about total mainstream everybody's in it but in six months from now, it's going to be the conversation It's gonna be the topics gonna be on CNBC every single day. It's gonna be talked about like Bitcoin It's going to be everywhere. I Mean, I've never seen this amount of capital flow into a brand new industry this quickly. And again, we're talking about In conditions where the economy shrinking We're in their session people are tightening their budgets But even when I went to the CES this year, I'm gonna be going for pretty sure it's like ten years now Forty percent of the companies canceled late because Omicron they were worried and (12/34)
again, it was tough to fly and it's international conference Look at four thousand companies usually attend there may have been like eight hundred to a thousand there Which is much much smaller sounds like a lot but it's much much smaller because they didn't have time to Reduce the space and put them in one area. So there's you know empty spots everywhere Well, usually there's just you can't even walk in some of these things When it's fully packed and all the companies are there But the companies that were in attendance companies I went to go see and this was in January They incorporated the metaverse into their presentations. So it's not just gaming It's not just all these people with gaming are gonna have fun. This is the entry It's the easy way to see it where all these people are gonna play. We're used to fortnight roblox minecraft Oculus the massive communities they have The metaverse gonna make them even better That's just right now It's not just this wonderful game that you (13/34)
know, older people are gonna try to play. No, it's not that We'll be going crazy investing and doing everything the metaverse if it's just gaming It's not gaming is a 500 billion dollar industry Which is 5% of the 10 trillion dollar market or total dress of market most worst Wall Street firms are Predicting the metaverse is gonna be it's a small percentage. It's gonna be huge for retailers Which retail this industry is all about data analytics because it's very difficult to predict Especially when it comes to inventory which we're seeing right now retailers. It's all Data driven and when you look at the data Which these guys do the amount of people who experience the metaverse so far that been the metaverse 80% of them have purchased something already Why do you think every retailer every every retailer is? Going all in on this they're either in it or talking about our hiring developers right now. Are they gonna be left behind? Look at social what social experience connectivity We all (14/34)
need where we we saw it during kovat right we all need to be closer to each other And talk to each other be interactive with each other more engaging That's what the metaverse is more engaged personal a better way for people to connect You're gonna entertainment travel Education training employees all these companies are starting to incorporate the metaverse right now But a hundred twenty billion dollars in inflows already. That's not a trend that's expected to take long to develop that caught me by surprise The metaverse gotta get in it's gonna be big and my problem my biggest problem Which again I always check my ego at the door and look to see how I can get better on the investment side is I Get to a lot of these trends too early Be a little bit of downside first before they take off and work out and that's fine I'm okay with that being a long-term holder and a lot of you know that a lot of you actually mentioned that was funny Somebody mentioned that when my investor conference So (15/34)
whenever you get in I know it's probably gonna come down first But then you've been right on a lot of these things you get so excited this Out of those trends that got into early I've never seen that much money flow into them I was like wow, this is a great idea. This is gonna happen We're seeing adoption here and there you see 120 billion dollars in six months, especially during a recession flow into it I mean, that's the stamp of approval The money is a stamp of approval anyone can make predictions and try to get you hear that crypto's going to 100 billion Whatever you want to whatever crazy forecast try to get you into everything you follow the money. It doesn't lie So now courage a reason we're fully engulfed in this industry now purchasing five million dollars of virtual real estate And TCG's metaverse the largest ever and that was beat out by a hundred million dollar purchase Recently in the same metaverse and TCG But TCG is gonna open to the public in q4 this year and they were (16/34)
sponsoring the meta Expo. She just came back from The access we had was incredible. Our booth was the first booth as you walked in I Think Veronica Charette for that helped out tremendously But we set up as a studio for interviews and it was packed just about the entire weekend I mean, I didn't have a minute of free time we do almost all the metaverse companies in attendance and The stories that we heard I mean these Young entrepreneurs people that had so many great ideas and they were coming to us Because we have credibility now we made that purchase we have security tokens. So Being the bridge between crypto and Wall Street were two industries that really don't like each other Crypto needs Wall Street. You need that money Wall Street. If you're looking for innovation here it is It's changing the industry that you're in. That's why they're covering so hard But for us we have the bridge we have the Wall Street experience. We have people this is as podcast We have investors that want to (17/34)
invest and look for new ideas and find great ideas from us And then we have the crypto crowd that trusts us and You have to earn that trust how by being in the room by showing hey, we made the biggest deal Like they're like, oh, I think I heard you're like, yeah, we made the five-month. That's you you made the $5,000 per oh my god And then I'm looking at the structure of the company and they're horrible Everybody thinks they need to have a token and I'm like, what's the token economics and they don't even know I'm not putting them down. I'm not saying anything but My Speech was about investors and how to raise capital and By doing that I had investors in the audience and I picked one out I said how many investors in the audience and you know, whatever 10 12 raised their hand I know all the names of course and I reached out and I someone I X right on stage I said how long you been following me? He's like Frank. I think I've been following is that you're a teenager I said if I ever been (18/34)
wrong and he looked at me I said, no have I ever been wrong and he goes yes And I said, but you know why they're all here following me is because I never fucked an investor in my life Said so it's not the fear of being wrong. Don't ever lie to them. This is your family these are people that are following you and You want them to participate in your idea if it works out and they see that you're busting your ass and you're doing everything You possibly can it doesn't work out. They'll be okay with that. Trust me They invest in it. They're smart. They know the risks of the awards and they're saying okay This guy works as hard as he can but just couldn't break through. That's okay What they hate is when you're filthy rich and they didn't participate and that's how their company is set up through tokens Because people gonna buy their utility token, which doesn't even have a utility because a lot of these guys don't have You know a business that's generating revenue yet Or maybe a little bit (19/34)
of revenue, but you know They want to set these tokens up and I'm like man if there's so many great companies and great ideas If they just structured it, right Structured like we structured our security token forget about the whole bullshit and as we purchase more real estate as we get more into this trend as we get more names on our file and You're selling more subscriptions and financial newsletters and stuff like that Maybe we get taken over at a higher price everyone. It's investors gonna benefit Because I said it once you do that and so many people in crypto and so many people even in mining I see it mining too. It's amazing how many people like try to pitch me an idea I say no that company goes out of business or they're with another company two years later And they'll call me and pitch me another idea. I'm like you freaking out of your mind really From investing in you and your idea. You better be 100% committed I don't want to hear about anything else that you're invested in or (20/34)
I'm gone That's why I'm investing you that's why I'm giving you the platform. That's why I'm telling you or telling people Hey, this is a great. I'm the one that's vetting I'm the one that's bringing this to everybody that I know and if I'm doing that I have to do the research and and If I'm not vetting you you do something that it ruins my credibility I told a lot of these kids And just the ideas holy shit the ideas they presented were just you know how they're gonna use a metaverse It was mind-blowing by the way you can have access to all this stuff for the coming weeks All these interviews and everything There's a huge opportunity for us where they're just looking for guidance like they don't know any better on that front But yet they're creative and you want to unleash creativity You want to unleash that and that's the future generation? Let them go because when they're worried about how do I structure this or the wall street part of it a? Lot of times company goes to shit You (21/34)
gotta hire people that are good at what you're not good at That requires you checking your ego at the door, but that's where From the first day right it was Friday Saturday Sunday from the middle first day because we didn't do too many interviews at the beginning Everyone's just open up their booth and stuff, and then we started doing interviews, and then word got around who we were These guys are great. You could trust them you could trust them with idea. They're looking for everyone to benefit They have a great audience someone you could trust he has credibility, and I can't tell you I think it was every single company came to our booth It was just packed the whole entire time pitching ideas Some of them were not that good Some of them were very very very good someone covers small caps these ideas were fantastic and most of it was a way to connect a different way To get your name out there to connect to everyone, but I look at this industry. It's incredible I know many of you even if (22/34)
you listen to this or if you look at the metaverse you say well Facebook roblox epic Which are huge epics fortnight? I mean They're not really metaverses and someone just downgraded Facebook And I agree with that downgrade because Facebook is really stuck right now. They're stuck Because they change the name to meta Going all in on the metaverse, but it's not a true metaverse It's a virtual platform and these are closed platforms, and they have to be and that's fine like essentially They have that's fine. If you're a closed platform what that means is all the money's flowing to you It's your company you want to track the data analytics everything Everything that soul is flowing through you. That's not a metaverse. That's gamification That's a virtual platform Say combined with you know augmented reality platform The metaverse is a true open platform And we're not talking about defy which we're starting to realize defy can't really exist And I know if you're from crypto you're listening (23/34)
to that defy Can never really exist without some kind of layer of protection over it because once you get your money stolen. That's it You're gone, and you're not gonna get big big big money into defy Especially The trillions of dollars of Wall Street unless there's some kind of layer of protection And we're seeing that over and over and over again But we have an open platform Where anyone can create own their own digital material assets? But developers could build whatever they want in this new world I mean think Think tombstone how many movies have been about tombstone holy cow? You'll get what 1870s Wyatt Earp trial day was brothers So like a hundred people living there in tents, and what did they do they all wanted to stake their claim? Whose saloon they want they built to build people making clothes? And getting access to food and mining materials gambling halls they were built restaurants place to get newspapers right any writers construction You're building a whole economy And (24/34)
it's to whatever level you want to where if I build this let's see if we see demand if we do let's keep building and building and building And that's pretty cool. You have that in a real world. You don't have that in a digital world You don't Anyone going to tombstone wanted to build run a business that they could Yeah, but now on a digital side it's YouTube Facebook Apple I mean these guys can kick you off their platforms whenever they want doesn't matter how many subscribers you want just was saying the wrong thing They look at this play everybody had a chance to build something to create make money I mean, that's what a true metaverse is that's what TCG is doing So it doesn't have other companies are doing right now So you have Facebook epic roblox they have the user basis, and they're gonna do fine We're likely gonna see a lot of these people flock to other metaverses of the years ahead Especially as they continue to get built since it allows more freedom more control of your (25/34)
property No restrictions when it comes to innovation technologies ownership That's what will make the next generation of social experience more personal more engaging And especially more fun and people want to be entertained. They want to be entertained more than ever A good example this one person interview his name is dill known as Dylan Rhodes So met him at the conference interviewed him He's a multi-platinum artists and a viral single Jordan Belfort which hit number 25 on the billboards Now when it came to the money aspect The record label made most of the money and he got shafted got screwed you hear that a lot You don't hear that from the top people at top whatever three percent Cuz of music or movies or whatever, but a lot of people get shaft so What did he do? He's now humble He learned a lesson young kid and now he's selling NFTs to his 1 million plus listeners and plans to stream his concerts in the metaverse Now providing NFTs. What does that do? Because when his fans (26/34)
purchase these NFTs they get exclusive perks. There's a lot of value there. I get a chance to meet him Having VIP access to his constant metaverse having access to different versions of his hit songs Because I made 10 times more money using NFTs in the metaverse compared to when he was under label and had a platinum selling hit Now times that by all of these entrepreneurs and people on the internet that have 10 20 30 million people followings on YouTube Instagram Twitter With it finally starting to realize that everything on there. You don't own You don't own that stuff Making advertising dollars and making a little bit of money. You're producing all the content. You don't own it though. You don't own it Imagine everything you produce you can put an NFT on and anytime it's resold and resold and we see that where people get popular People to ban like the Rolling Stones or whatever any ban anyone that's popular people are gonna want more and more just like athletes That's why they're (27/34)
doing this NFT where I don't have to get the NBA involved I don't have to get my agent involved. I don't get all these people involved This is my stuff and people want it and it's probably the value it's gonna go higher and higher based on you And you own your own franchise now. It's yours You're the king of it. Not everybody else making money off of you That's the future Wall Street sees it Influencers see it everybody see it and that's why you're seeing money flow into this at this pace Those entrepreneurs. I'm at the conference. I mean it was incredible You can have access to all the stories or ideas which are fascinating I'm gonna have that all in the weeks ahead, but once you see these interviews guys, why don't you see him the passion? how they plan on using the metaverse to Bring their brands to the metaverse, you know It's you the metaverse and bringing their brands into these and which ones are they going to select to bring them into the metaverse Because it's gonna be a bunch (28/34)
of them. It's not a comparison the internet People say well you can't you just keep building and building and building you're gonna have certain metaverses It's like streaming platforms. Whoever has the most entertainment the most fun the more engaging that's gonna get the most traffic so graphics are a big thing, which is why Decentraland is a little dangerous and and so is Openseas The graphics coming out right now and you know, I learned a ton about the technology the engines that they're using and From the developer in if Wow, we make a lot of contacts. Holy cow You're gonna get a better understanding especially once you see this content these interviews better understanding of the metaverse Why it's the future Why it's here right now Why I put my money my mouth is right it's a huge investment in five million dollars virtual real estate purchase And you realize why those ten trillion dollar market predictions by Wall Street firms It's likely gonna be conservative Because that's (29/34)
where everyone is going. It's happening now. It's not gonna happen a couple years from now So I'm gonna tell you how to position yourself as individual investor at a business What you're gonna need to do sir later guys, it's gonna be someone's creating a website for your company in the 90s I don't want to do it. I don't want to do it. Well, you better do it You better you're gonna be left behind There's a massive opportunity right now Which my exact words when I spoke at the VIP party a VIP party is kind of like concert thing I think they'll perform the stuff and I didn't even know I was gonna go up there I kind of knew and then they did this supposed to be a panel or whatever and next thing, you know Like yeah, Frank could you speak and there's three of us had spoken it was like ten minute speeches each and two people went before me I was the last one and Yeah, I really didn't know I was gonna say to be honest I don't know I said look guys, you know Look to your right and now everyone (30/34)
look to your left and I say you're all effing millionaires You're early to this party you have the ability to create almost whatever you want And it's truly what I believe for anyone getting into this industry right now. It's that early It seems like it's early like oh man, it's early because a lot of people don't know about it wait until the next six months Okay, I have a history of tracking this stuff for me I couldn't when I brought you to metaverse and doing this before I made a $5 million probably like wow, this is cool This is awesome. I Didn't think that much money would flow into this brand new industry this quickly and the people I'm talking to the platforms I'm seeing these platforms. I'm seeing examples of What they intend to do on these platforms and I am completely blown away when you see it you're gonna be blown away It's like was six years ago when Oculus Just couple five by Facebook and they were at the consumer electronics show and it was the first time I experienced (31/34)
real virtual reality And I was like, oh my god, this is amazing. It blew me away Everybody was talking about it at that conference It took a little while two years three years No, it's not just oculus nets everybody getting into this industry the technologies here the industry is here And when you see it, you're gonna know why it's definitely gonna happen It's gonna happen a lot sooner than you think so the coming weeks I'm gonna share a lot of this content. It's amazing and the better Expo we interviewed tons and tons of people Should many of their ideas which you're not gonna find anywhere else because in order to find them you need to be in the room I've talked to you guys many many times. You've got to be in the room access to information is the greatest Asset you could have That's how you get into these trends By having a great network of people But you have to be in the room. You can't sit behind a desk gotta be these conferences You gotta be speaking to people So if all those (32/34)
ideas that could be one or two that you take that could be a billion dollar idea The only way you're gonna get access to that and learn about that is if you're there but these new metaverse companies A lot of them that we met they trust us since we have credibility with our virtual land purchase And through TCG who's a partner in our firm that introduces a lot of people they met me face to face now To the give us amazing access which is gonna lead to a ton of new ideas for you so stay tuned It's gonna be a lot of fun, and I'm excited It's guys that's it for me questions comments for the email you Frank Curzio research com that's Frank at Curzio research com I'll be here with Daniel break down the markets tomorrow I'll see you then take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment (33/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - From stock-picking monkeys to security tokens: A 40-year history of Curzio Research.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Don't out there. It's November 18th. I think Erzio's the Wall Street unplugged podcast. Why break that headlines and Tell you it's really moving these markets So I have a unique interview set up today So it's someone many of you probably familiar with since you talked to her personally Right got you guys thinking right now have no idea who it is her name, which we share the last name is Christine Curzio Runs numerous divisions here, but you probably know it through customer service But also does tons of other things for us amazing things which he's gonna get to in a minute But we had a couple of people come on and say look have great conversations with your sister she has a great job customer service and and You should get around a podcast and I wanted to get you on a podcast Chris listen (1/34)
Thanks so much for coming on because this is gonna be a really funny interview because you're the person behind the scenes That gets all these crazy emails and all the crazy stuff And there are other people that do a lot of work for me, right? Even though my face is you know is what they see but the people behind the scenes really, you know makes the engine run I just want to say thanks for coming on and Thanks for about to share Lots of funny stories right now. How's it going? It's good, it's good. It's it's challenging sometimes and as you know When you're ready to call customer service, you're not calling customer service because you're happy and you want to say hey I love you guys you're calling because you're pissed off you're angry So pissed off at the company that you have to call or email customer service and complain and scream and yell and curse We've had colorful adjectives thrown at us like you can't even imagine like what? What are some of the things that people? Oh my (2/34)
gosh The F word three times over and and F wad F this F I can't even their words that I don't even think that are in any dictionary yet, but It's amazing and sometimes I read these and I laugh because their people are so angry because we either They either press the button twice and charge their card twice for a subscription and they want their four dollars back or they Didn't read that email they received that said we are going to charge you for your upcoming renewal of your subscription and They didn't stop that from going through so they call us they email us. They're so so angry and to me We are an up-and-up company, we're not trying to take anyone's money. We want you to be happy We want you to like what you read. We want you to love what you buy We don't want to take your seventy nine dollars or your four dollars. I'll give it back to you. Call me I'll refund your four dollars. It's no big deal But I gotta tell you the emails that come in and the phone calls. I mean these people (3/34)
are angry. They're angry birds It's amazing. Well, you know, it's funny because a lot of times when I look at the customer service aspect It was always the most important to me because one of the things I love about our subscribers, too Is when there's something wrong we'll get to those emails in a second, but when there's something wrong and our team's really great Like we really go through, you know, there's a whole editing process. We're efficient. We're very fast You know, I do videos we get them up next day I know I've been in this industry my whole life It usually takes three four five days from the time someone starts writing an idea to get out We do it the day before and get it out to you right in times of the essence with a lot of these stocks but just to see you know, those emails come in when a link isn't working or a question we have with crypto intelligence, right which is cool because I recommended something recently in crypto intelligence and It was on the Kraken (4/34)
exchange and how's the easiest way to buy it? It wasn't on coinbase or Gemini and when Certain subscribers if you lived in new and I didn't know this because even when you look at crack and it says it's open all 50 States it's not it's open to every state except for New York and Washington and we have subscribers all over the world really but in every state and We started getting questions in and then you're like, hey, there's like five or six and then you'll email me and say hey It's you know, I'm getting like ten of these things twelve of these things in there and that gets relayed back to me And I'm like, okay, let me send an alert and get back to them But the communication parts amazing and like you said with customer service, we're an independent company I have to show you gains or you're not gonna subscribe anymore. Also. I was always a believer that look if if We're full of shit and we give you a product that nobody likes Then you should be able to cancel right right away and a (5/34)
lot of times I bought stuff where I can't find where the hell It cancel how to do it. There's no phone This phone numbers is very easy to do and if you like you say it for us the worst thing is chargebacks Right chargebacks are the worst thing that's when you call your credit card company instead of the actual company even when you call a credit card company it'll advise you to call the company because chargebacks are really really bad especially in our business because There's a lot of people out there They're right really shitty crazy reports and gets lots of lots of chargebacks when people come into our products at least are solid They're good most people like this is amazing right they see videos and stuff but just seeing that whole process such a big deal because a lot of times when links aren't working you're able to send it out right away to other people and You know down the chain and immediately we're able to get to it. So which is pretty cool, right? Mm-hmm. Yes Yes, we have (6/34)
you know, not only do we have complaints. There are a few and far between some Subscribers and non subscribers that contact us and say you're doing a great job or we love Frank He was so funny on this podcast the other day but we also have some great subscribers that contact us and say hey, I think there's a typo in one of your newsletters and We appreciate that, you know, we have some kick-ass marketing and editorial folks here and they catch everything but there is okay on occasion there is something that might slip through the cracks and I'll call the editorial team or our developer and they are Johnny on the spot. They fix it right away One funny thing the other day we had a guy that said He sent me a screenshot He tried to look up Curzio research comm on his smartphone and he said it's all fuzzy It doesn't look right and I thought alright, so I Replied to him and told him He said it looked fuzzy on his Apple smartphone and I said well get rid of the iPhone and use a Samsung like I (7/34)
have I don't think he appreciated that too much and I guess we better watch out because we do have these podcasts on Apple But he laughed I laughed and you know what? I sent that email over to one of our developers and Sure enough. He fixed whatever bug was there and one two three it worked. It was beautiful So we do have you know, we have a large team here at Curzio research and everyone is Johnny on the spot 24-7 just about so we don't work only Nine to five we're on the weekends. We're answering emails on the weekends at night holidays Because let's face it That's when a lot of our subscribers have some downtime from their regular jobs and they're online Reading their emails and they're looking at these things over the weekend when they have time So it's important for us to answer that in a timely fashion Yeah, it reminds me one of those myths in business too when they say the customer is always right. Mm-hmm The customer is not always right Customer is not always it's not always (8/34)
right and I can tell you and I'll tell you why and a lot of people know Why the customers are when you? Like you could be mad right and with our service look I'm coming out with pics every month Like even this year if we look at this year and we look at say Curzio research advisor and I'm being honest with you Last year was a great year this year was good But there was like a five six month period where the market was didn't do that Well, right and yet it's near all-time highs just because a lot of big technology companies are there But like 60% of the index was actually down over the past six months So you came in six months ago You got a couple of recommendations that are kind of behind me here in the markets up and you get so a lot of it Is timing right? I mean people getting into crypto news like we did fantastic, but who knows if it goes down You know 20% then those people came in the last three months There's always gonna be people pissed I understand that but When you're sending (9/34)
in an email and I've done this at least twice where I've kicked people out of out of Curzio research Because you've sent me an email and you you're good with this like, you know, you never annoy me, right? You know, so yeah, but you like this was a person both of these people who have been free people and they subscribe to front-end newsletter and I've answered their questions. I asked me questions all the time Frank This is and just over the years I remember answering them and then when you pull up in Google you can see how many times these people email you and I answer these Questions and they ripped you and they were cursing at you I mean it was bad and I actually went to them and I gave it to them I was like we don't stand for this bullshit. I can't believe all the and so well you say the customer's always right They're not always right. They're right most of the time but now it's almost like there's no stupid questions There's stupid questions You can actually the questions like (10/34)
if you're seeing someone say that that you admire that you influence that influences you Don't ask them a question that You could easily figure out in ten seconds if you did a Google search don't waste your time on that Make sure it's really so there are stupid questions But Jamie Diamond was doing a big thing and someone Raised a hand and said something was asking about benefits and he was just like that's that's the terrible question But sometimes there is but I could see that even with customer service But you know, I didn't want this whole thing to be about customers That's what I want what it's about because a lot of people I've been following for a long time and just you know the history we've been in this business right with our late dad It was a newsletter right for a long time. We've been doing this for a long time I would have you seen in terms of difference of the business because you know, I've been as wow I feel old now but close to 30 years. You're a little bit older than (11/34)
me But you know just seeing how the business is different from when we were really young right when dad started this thing was pretty cool Yeah, my dad started this business the financial newsletter and what he would do is he would write in his chicken-scratch Handwriting and my mom would type up the report then he would send it to the printer would take two days to print So, of course, you know The stock has moved within those two days and he would bring all of those paper copies home Or to his office at the time and my two brothers and I Frank and Nick we would fold and stuff envelopes and put labels on those envelopes take them to the post office in crates and Mail them first class so that all of his subscribers had those newsletters in their hand within, you know, two days But it was maybe like a five-day process or four-day max now It's instantaneous, you know Frank gets on a podcast and boom five minutes later. You guys are reading about it So times have definitely changed and (12/34)
dad would definitely be so proud of you For everything maybe maybe maybe a little proud Yeah, but he was uh, you know, we definitely follow like in his footsteps to the point where you know Focusing on the customer and trying to educate and stuff like that never got lost Like I remember somebody coming over and they had like three million dollars in an account That's a lot to imagine money at the time to imagine money and he's writing a newsletter You're allowed to do both back then now You really have to separate those businesses with the SEC new laws that size last 15 years That person came in with a few million dollars and I think we had maybe like 75 80 million under management So it was it was a pretty sizable account and I remember him looking at it and he just said, you know What there's nothing I could do for you, you know, you're diversified You just she owned like 25 different stocks in all different industries. He's like that, you know your position I can't really you know, (13/34)
I'm gonna take this I'm gonna be charging you and probably own a lot of these stocks And that was something I never forgot because you don't see especially on Wall Street I've been through Wall Street with Kramer and even before that for an exchange broker. You don't see that, right? Such cutthroat place and for me that growing up and seeing people who are successful by doing the right thing compared to being You know wealthy by doing the wrong thing like that always stuck to me and it's just so easy To take advantage of people in this industry and you can get away with it Like you can take advantage of it And I mean you saw it back in the Merrill Lynch days because you work at Lehman for 10 years Mm-hmm. I mean, I remember having Blodgett came it was just you know, all the internet stocks I mean they made billions off of that and he got fined what whatever it was the firm got fine He got kicked out of his now he owns like, you know business inside of making a fortune but a lot of (14/34)
those people got killed and nothing comes of it right Merrill is still around what by Bank of America and just to see how that business Or how this business that I'm in of this industry is is and how it takes advantage of so many people and being able to Be a voice out there going look a lot of this is bullshit. You need to know that it's cool It results in sometimes, you know not having as many friends have great contacts, but really, you know telling the truth But that's something that we've seen and even through the time where you know, we were around when you know CNBC was just starting right and then you know dad called the crash 1987 crash and writing which was a big deal I mean everybody calls a crash every day now There's only like 10 people listen to and then we had this small tiny office, right? And you got all these news vans and that's when everything took off He was on dateline and I mean you could tell him the thing about the monkey, right? I don't know if everybody knows (15/34)
that the Wall Street Journal Yeah there was a the Wall Street Journal hosted a dartboard contest and They wanted to take a chimpanzee and pit him against I think three super financial advisors and our dad was one of them and The chimps name was Casey and it was all over the Wall Street Journal. It was it was amazing It was a crazy article, but ultimately My father was winning for a long time and I think after three or four years then the chimps picks Ultimately won out but it brought us and him so much publicity It was unbelievable and you know, some people said oh don't you feel that you know going against a monkey? It was the beginning though It was the beginning part because the beginning was when the monkey so they picked five stocks each and it was a monkey against my father I think they had third graders there or something I think that was a contest and third guys dropped acts They got embarrassed because they started losing and this turned out to be one of the most watched (16/34)
segments on dateline before everything's like the murder Mystery now that they links to be like current events and stuff. It's funny Yeah, so and he was on I think six or seven times which was kind of like a and it had heard I was record amount of people watching it because the monkey after the first three weeks Like they picked five stocks the monkey picked five random stocks They made that pick think it might have been Boeing GE McDonald's five stocks and one of the companies he picked Oh Kroger Harnish fig he picked Kroger Money actually picked Kroger. We have the story even better right and then and this is real we have this on video So I had this on video OVC our tapes. I'm gonna put this on our YouTube page. Fantastic. Fantastic Because my dad's a really funny guy when it came to that and he was uh, yeah the monkey one of the picks I think was a harness figure industry some got taken over right? So he was kicking my dad's ass off the beginning They're like, yeah, this monkey's do (17/34)
and they feel like and they really built it up Like this one this is like best guy in stocks best stock picker ever, you know, the Wall Street Journal Dark book contest. He has the all-time wins in that right and you're talking about lots of famous people who in there He wanted more times than anyone else and then as time went on then dad won, right and and for us for me I'm like when he asked me about he asked you about he's like, what do you think about this? I was like, it's good idea. Just don't lose And then as he was losing he made more fun of it and he actually went to the zoo was hanging out with the monkey Holding the monkey right with different segments and stuff and said if the monkey outperforms me, I'm gonna hire him, right? So it's like a big deal. There's like a six episode thing, which is hilarious and it's really good at the end I think he finally won but just the publicity we got from that and go into stations and meeting Maria Bartiromo When she was a kid and all (18/34)
these people going to Bloomberg when Bloomberg wasn't that big and stuff But just you know going through that system is pretty cool to see there and where we are now, I guess right? Yeah, which is awesome Unbelievable, so I want to say this you're in Florida right now. Yeah came to Florida. Thank you for bringing your cold to Florida So, I don't know if it's COVID or not. I shouldn't I shouldn't joke around. Okay. She's like no no No, no, I don't say cold But anyway, I know you want to hang out a little bit more But I know you've been under the weather a little bit but I you plan on moving to Florida a lot you come in here What's going on? Well, I don't know. Um, I have two kids that still live with me and I'm not sure when they're leaving You know how that goes they're 20 and 21 So I feel bad kicking them out but if they kind of get the hint and maybe I could sell the house in New York and move down to Florida and be With with the family down here, so I'm looking I've got a lot of (19/34)
friends that live down here that are snowbirds here So it is very nice here, especially in January February March just to get out of the New York weather, but I have plenty of friends in the customers support emails that have offered to show me around Florida and you know, I always throw humor into the emails. Where do you live in, Florida? So I've made plenty of friends in the customer support last guest. I'm gonna send you something, right? Yes. Yes There was a guy who? Who was angry about something and it turns out that he's a fisherman in The oceans of Alaska and invited me to come on his next chartership You know fishing trip and sent me all sorts of pictures of all the fish that he caught. So that was really nice I mean a package in the mail with some fish would have been nice too and then also that the the the that was really remarkable is something that really touched me was the The person that was a Navy SEAL that actually sent an email Yes, he's a Navy military subscriber. (20/34)
He's a master chief and hovercraft pilot He sent us pictures and so many gifts and one of them is a paddle With some hand stitched information on it I think Frank is gonna show that it's hanging on his wall and it's signed I've shown this once before I think maybe through subscribers. It's an amazing piece that he sent and Group and what he did they listened to the podcast all the time and you know Just teaching them and then on the back of the paddle He has his whole entire unit sign it saying thank you so much for the lessons You taught me and and this is like hand stitched unbelievable. Beautiful. Beautiful. Beautiful Yeah, something that really did touch me and then you know, there's so many great people out there and yeah That's what the one of the things I really love about the jobs like helping people and stuff like that But uh, you know, not all the emails are bad again It is customer service, but guys just let you know if you're emailing that's a port and part of our business, (21/34)
right? I always say that with Amazon Amazon is the best because you know, some could be broken and You call and you're just like hey, you know, this is but they don't even ask any questions like okay automatically They're saying is something else automatically and you know, it results in me constantly telling that story to everybody else And that spreads right? so when you have good customer service when you're able to figure out these problems and people gonna be pissed and maybe you're Coming the wrong time. Maybe you have a couple bad stock picks and I get that right? That's fine But you know our job is to make sure that we're helping you if you have problems and Chris you've been doing a good job with that But I don't want to leave it there Chris because that's not the only thing you do because when it comes to HR It is important. We're a small company So you're able to do HR and customer service but another thing is talk about the business you started with credit card processing (22/34)
because I helped us out tremendously and guys listen up if You have a business or if your financial newsletter publisher Please listen to this part because this is one of this is one of the mistakes that I made running the business that I didn't Was a big deal When everybody wants to run their own business, it's they want to do what they're great at They don't understand that when we started getting bigger. It's like holy shit HR. What do you mean? What do I do HR waiting wait accounting? We have to have all this stuff in place where it was just like hey, yeah, that guy's good All right, give him a thousand dollars for consulting free and everything's got you know, it's it's a company now. It's a corporation But the credit card processing holy shit I mean that is very very serious right and talk about that because you start your own company and you know That has been a tremendous help for us because you know, we ran into a little bit of trouble with that Yeah So as Frank mentioned, (23/34)
I've been in the financial industry my entire life I was in Lehman Brothers for about ten years then jumped over to work for one or two credit card processing companies and Then I decided that I'm gonna start my own it's simply payments and one of the important things about an online e-commerce business is that You definitely have to have some sort of a refund policy. You have to be in touch with your customers One of the things that you don't want to ever have is an enormous amount of chargebacks When someone calls their credit card bank and lets their bank know that they didn't like or never ordered this and they want to refund What they should always do is call the company first And that's what we always tell everyone all of our subscribers if you're not happy with something call us We'll talk about a refund prorated refund. These things are extremely important In addition, once you hit a certain percentage of chargebacks the credit card company can actually shut you down I've seen (24/34)
that with so many other companies out there the e-commerce industry is very high risk because you don't have to have the credit card in hand and It's it's a little bit of a dangerous Situation if you're in the e-commerce business and you don't pay attention to your customer service So being in the card industry has definitely helped us tremendously we are able to minimize those chargebacks Minimize the requests for the chargebacks and also manage the credit card processing company's expectations There's a lot of things that we can do. There's some things that we can't do but being in the payments industry Especially now after kovat. I mean no one really uses cash anymore. Everyone is using cards So this is this is something that you know again, you know being ethical right from the get-go I remember my parents had their their business their financial newsletter business and They had to have a credit card machine so that they could charge people for subscriptions For their for my (25/34)
father's newsletter and those salespeople for those credit card companies were terrible They would charge a thousand two thousand dollars for a credit card terminal now, you can get those credit card terminals for a hundred and fifty dollars And I do the same thing as as our parents and Frank I talk to the people and I make sure that They are comfortable with what they have. I don't try to tell someone. Oh, you should switch over to me right away We don't do that. I'll tell them let me look at your statement. Let me see what your credit card rates are You're fine the rates that you have right now are fine. Stay with the credit card company that you're with I'd love your business, but your rates are not so bad. So it's all about being ethical as well Yeah, and one of the things that I would say is because what our business and if you think about becoming you know Doing what I'm doing, right? So it's the barriers to entry are extremely high if you get past Um, I would say a half a (26/34)
million dollars right below that nobody cares it's okay But with our business when we started growing this we send out promotions and in a two-week time We could generate a lot of money in two weeks If the promotion is really good and people like it everyone's signing on to the products and that's what we do here Right, and I want to sell products at the right time. I don't want to sell your product every single day every single week It's like hey, this is really working. This is why I've been telling against a crypto This is why I'm telling it's getting to small caps And when we do that we come up with a big promotion and a nice theme and saying hey This is and I'll go my copy team and I'll tell them listen. This is the idea I want people to come in at this gonna be their first experience. I really like this name I think they're gonna make money off it and we write a whole copy package and When people come in you generate a lot of that money in a week or two and that triggered right (27/34)
that trigger the credit card process I would say who you know, they basically have a financial publishing industry They view us the same way they would view as the porno industry a lot of risky industries And they held our money Significant amount of money. How long did they hold that Chris? They hold they held about five hundred thousand dollars for almost two years For almost two years and that was something that I wasn't prepared for and you could borrow off that we didn't have to and we had Cash in the bank, but it got to the part where it was like, you know This is like two years ago two and a half years ago before we even did anything with a token where you know We just we weren't established with them So they don't know who we are and they're like who the hell is generating all this money right away like in two weeks What the hell are you doing? Would you sell so right away? It's all system-based all the red flags go up and they halt and they call and they're like we have to (28/34)
wait now They'll see like we have money in the bank cash balance. We can cover it. They see our reputation They see our chargebacks are low, but to get to this point was very hard and that was something that was really unexpected So, you know in this business particularly way, it's like a two-week period You could generate a lot of money where a lot of our sales come in. I would say maybe You know a two-month period not like it's not like recovering some of its recurring, you know, but our industry It's like a lot of it would come in in certain periods like a week period a two-week period over a year it's like two months and that's what triggers it but That was something that surprised me that wasn't ready for him like whoa and thank God we were in the right position and we weren't You know spending money wildly and crazy But you know five hundred thousand dollars a lot to any small business and you're paying your employees and they're like no We're holding this because we want to make (29/34)
sure because you can get all these cancellations and shit like that I'm like, whoa And that goes to tell you how our industry is because our industry is treated that way because there's a lot aggressive promotes The reason why I started my own business. It's a lot of shit out there And there's a lot of chargebacks and you again once they saw that we did that was one of the things they came up But that was what I wanted to break that down because there are other businesses there that you do an online stuff but just be prepared for that that was a risk I didn't see coming and You know you helped out tremendously with that. Thank God because that could have significantly hurt the business. Yeah, which is crazy Yeah, definitely. Anyway, so Chris. Thanks so much for coming on I'm curious to see what the emails are gonna get if guys you have any negative emails About me about my performance Chris. What's your email? customer support Support at the Bronx ooh calm Yes, that's where it is. (30/34)
That's where it is. But it is it's it's it's just like our support email and Which is what Chris what's that support email support at Curzio research calm and let everybody put everyone It's everyone's first name at courage the research calm, but I make them say it anyway So it doesn't matter even you Christine cause research calm, but thanks so much for coming on Chris. I really appreciate it I mean, you've done a fantastic job to see where we are now and again people behind the scenes Who you don't hear from none of this works unless you know, you have those people here, which is which is amazing And by the way, her son is Joe who I have on this podcast who is the young investor That's investing and you know You guys love those interviews because he was humble enough to come on and tell talk about his mistakes I know a lot of people I'd say mistakes. We always get great emails when Joe's on but uh, yes If you're gonna yell at Joe, I wouldn't do it to Christine I do it to me Remember (31/34)
I see all those emails, you know, she knows which she's got the all your addresses remember that you got all their addresses Right. So think about that before you want to send a negative email and say shit. Just remember she's got your address if you're a subscriber Right, thanks so much for coming on cuz I really appreciate it. Okay. Thanks for having me. All right good good stuff. So guys Leave it there. Hopefully you enjoyed that interview Look Customer service is extremely important to me, right? For my business. We're not looking to you know Sell you crap and it makes no sense for us to sell you something that you're not gonna be happy with and then You know month and a half later you're pissed off and you're sending us Negative emails and you're pissed off and just writing all bad reviews about us all over the place for the next 12 months for us As a business that doesn't make sense. I never made sense for us. So If you do have problems if you think you get better on products I (32/34)
mean, that's another way to use customer service as well. But I get updates from customer service all the time It allows me to send alerts on many of my newsletters So let me know what you guys are thinking what you guys are focused on it gives me It lets me gauge sentiment Right, I mean it allows me to get sent especially with crypto where extreme get lots of crypto questions or different things and what people Thinking about but it's a very very important aspect of the business So guys feel free to write in again constructive criticism, whatever, you know It makes our company better right the more things and more things we could fix up and make better You know, that's what we're here folks are in for a long term. So Yeah, thanks again steam coming on appreciate all your support questions or comments for the email Frank at Curzio research calm That's Frank at Curzi research calm and appreciate all the support guys. Love you guys, and I'll see you next week. Take care Wall Street (33/34)
unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main there September 15 I've encouraged us watching a plot pockets. We break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets here goes some news stories with you recently Billionaires Peter Thiel and Mark Anderson Are gonna leave the board of Facebook and Instagram, which is a parent company of meta I'm gonna leave those boards and they're leaving those boards because they both Have tons of crypto investments and web 3 investments. So it's kind of a conflict of interest and they announced that and This is just recently a Cold months earlier a Venture firm called one confirmation. This is backed by Pew Thiel Mark Anson. If you're not familiar Mark Anson grace pretty much the greatest French capitalist ever And also Mark Cuban those three. So this one confirmation this fund is backed (1/34)
by them launched a hundred million dollar fund to invest in NFTs in June Looking at Shopify watch e-commerce platforms says gonna launch a token gated experiences So business is gonna be able to offer exclusive products and discounts to followers that hold tokens or NFTs for specific collection Nike Lamborghini Louis Vuitton the UFC have also announced that They launch NFT projects recently doodles an empty collection spearheaded by reddit co-founder It's called fifty four million dollars in funding this is recently this just happened Took the valuation to seven hundred million dollars. This is in this market. Think about what's going on in the market. Think about this Who are some of those investors FTX ventures who you should be familiar with they're buying up crypto assets like crazy Partner with Scaramucci's fun. I think they invested in block fi Crypto comm tons of companies. They're having trouble Also a crew capital and ten T Holdings took part in the funding round those are big (2/34)
names in the sector You have a 16 Z if you're not familiar that's Aerson Harwood's web 3 arm basically best in crypto projects They announced a free licensing system for NFTs just a couple days ago. No longer Just gonna help the NFT sector unleash what they call its economic potential It's basically helping NFT creators to protect and release their intellectual property their rights Grading empty holders the baseline of rights that are broke their rockable enforceable easy to understand again I'm quoting them, but basically it's helping creators provide the framework And give them that framework and platform to launch their collections It's gonna spur this creativity and saying hey, we're gonna help you guys let us see your projects well invested We're gonna help you give you this free licensing system Just the other day Starbucks should remain on Starbucks Adding a non fungible token to its loyalty program through the Starbucks Odyssey It's gonna give members opportunity to earn and (3/34)
purchase digital collectible assets are gonna unlock access to new benefits and immersive coffee experiences they say This is all news that's been announced in basically the past three months up to yesterday with Starbucks All this money floating into NFTs and a market where capital is flowing out like crazy people are going to cash The dollars going higher people are nervous The Fed looks like they're gonna go nuts and just continue to raise Regardless right based on again. I covered this the other day based on a CPI. That's tainted. That's Gonna show that inflation is pretty high because rentals and in shelter accounts with 30% of it So to be looking at that index In which the purpose is to mask inflation and now it's working oppositely because you can't get inflation out of it Even though you've seen inflation indicators you see rents come down in real time rents are coming down as a laggy indicator You've seen prices come down in different areas, but they're gonna go Crazy and (4/34)
raise like crazy throughout the year, which is very very dangerous at this stage considering We're already in a recession a gold recession. Let's look around But yet all this money flowing into web 3 NFTs constantly right constantly So I have a great rest for you today. His name is dr. Ravi Singh Has a massive massive following the first individuals in the world holds a doctoral degree the specialization social media technology He works with tons of celebrities to increase their brands social media digital has numerous degrees He was the first and I'm gonna destroy the words. I'm gonna spell it SI KH American to graduate from the US military with a turban So you get a chance to see him? He's very funny hilarious So make sure you're watching this on our YouTube page. You can see it. If not, you can listen to it do numerous outlets This is a guy has a huge political following Met several presidents ran numerous campaigns Create a multi-million dollar digital company can teach at numerous (5/34)
colleges and go look at his resume. It's unbelievable Larry could do almost anything he wants and His focus 100% is on NFTs where he believes his technology and I'm quoting here is gonna change the world This is a fantastic interview. I want you to please excuse the noise in the background because I literally booked this interview at 515 on Sunday the Palm Beach Expo couple weeks ago that we attended. I was interviewing tons of people and The conference closed at 5 and I don't know if you've been to a conference or if you're presented and we have this whole setup When they close a lot of its unionized man, they kick you out. They kick you out They start just taking everything down. We were the last people in there where they were like, you know You got to get that bad here like one more interview We're working hard for you on a Sunday when the whole place closed Everyone's going out for drinks and join because we work so hard the conference. I Wanted to get this last interview with you (6/34)
when he walked in Earlier that day massive massive crowd around him I saw his speech on stage because I was on stage right after that hosting and moderating to To want to segments which are really cool with a bunch of people on it at the conference So one of them was you know metaverse and I was just entrepreneurs and stuff like that But right after him I was I was on so I didn't get a chance to speak with him But then I spoke with him. He wanted to come over and say hey, you know, I heard about you wanted Yeah, I'll definitely do an interview with you and we did it late So excuse the background she didn't hear poles dropping and stuff like that, but you're gonna be able to hear it perfectly It's fine. Just excuse that but just goes to show you how hard I'm working for you He's working for you again Sunday 515 This is one of my favorite interviews from I think it's like a 20-25 people I conducted at the conference and you're gonna see why in a minute and here's that interview. Dr. (7/34)
Robby Singh I'm so honored to have you on and before you say a word I Usually like introduce people and say okay his percent. This is the introduction. I'm gonna I'm not I usually say what do you do? I'm not gonna do because what I'm saying here is pretty amazing. Okay, so you're very kind No, it's not kind because you deserve it because you earned it right MIT right and suit technology As for University Liberty University Northwestern University Duke University Harvard University all degrees across the board here Just the educational component and one of the things I saw which is much much more important than all of that right NCA division one My father my father I told my dad I wanted to be a professional golfer he looked at me he says You cannot be a golfer. No Indian has ever been Yeah, so I wonder I did play NCAA division one golf one of the happiest days of my life I didn't make it but I did get to go all the way. So that's awesome So, you know what? I feel like I'm a dinosaur (8/34)
this industry being 50 years old But I have a lot of Wall Street clients I've been doing for 30 years that that know this where the innovations coming from and It's cool to see the respect you're getting where I've you know Put a lot of money into this space from these young entrepreneurs right now is seeing I feel like I mean I don't have anything near as common but the education part and where you come from to see you and what you're doing in NFTs Explain that because sure, you know, this isn't like hey young kid doing this It's like somebody else that is education or seeing the future, you know, explain that what what made you go You can do pretty much anything you want the golf team, especially both NFTs and members It was a thought process But you know every journey all the trials and tribulations sort of lead you towards something and once you start accepting them You know, it was one degree after another I didn't anticipate my dissertation, you know happening so quickly I didn't (9/34)
expect my research to come out positive and actually prove a new theory in social media When I did all of these things I realized wow Is there an application that I can apply this knowledge to and because I was an entrepreneur before I went to my PhD I went back when I was in my 40s so I'm dating myself a little bit but I did it because my mother told me you can't be a guru and Call yourself a group. You don't have a PhD and so I said, okay, I'm going to go get up here So that was the that was the logic but there is a need in this space for academic research And what is happening here is not only behavioral right changes that are being taking place There's real tech behind this the blockchain has a component and a category for NFTs Unfortunately, it goes beyond burning a JPEG or minting a picture or etc but no one is teaching this from a Practical standpoint and I'm hoping to do both of them I'm hoping to be a practitioner in the space as well as share my knowledge Because I see the (10/34)
potential changing the world and when I say changing the world I literally mean changing the world this technology has the ability to go around cross borders No middleman and most importantly affect the way we do things in a very positive way from finance All the way into any type of industry. How do you do that with academia? How are you going to be able to Bring this education, right? I've seen it in universities blockchain a little bit not metaverse Not that I've teased yet really you may have seen it. But how do you bring it on that stage? You know, how are you going to be able to disrupt that market where it's not just talking to you But you actually going to these institutions which you know, there's politics involved and you know politics Well, yeah, my former life was being a campaign guru running political campaigns in over 21 different countries I did co-brand with Microsoft my software And worked with the public sector. They're running over 7,000 different political (11/34)
campaigns from you know, school board bomb to presidents Creating digital war rooms for like the Tyree Square and and in different countries So it was an amazing experience but democratization here in the NFT space is Interesting and the the vast is there there's of course the collectible aspect There's the different categories my focus is on the social media aspect because that's my where I did my PhD specialization I see gold in that there's about 7 billion people on social media right now and they've generated a huge amount of content But the problem is that ownership of that content and being able to monetize that content that has not been given I always found it very funny that we engage for free We get nothing in return my wife takes takes a picture or something You just doesn't get free dessert from it and we go to the same restaurant all the time So I asked myself Is there a way that we can take social media content and mint it into an NFT in a very easy way? And that's what (12/34)
I'm doing as founder of social payment comm that's gonna be my contribution to the space I believe that everyone who has a social media account is sitting on gold And I believe that we can convert all of those and I believe that some followers or fans of those accounts will want to basically purchase those NFTs and you're not just someone that's saying this this is what you're doing, right? So talk about the Donald Trump and sweet It's funny, but but it's a good story because we need to do as you know Is if you can explain this to people right? They need to identify on a level that everybody understand everybody knows Donald Trump is but explain what you do there And then we'll really get into a little more detail. Sorry So I tell your audience this took me five years to get to where I am right now I mean this was I saw NFTs in 2017 I saw the potential but when I did my research from my PhD, I actually run a Hypothesis and then experiment, you know do something that was significant. So (13/34)
I analyzed 35,000 647 of Donald Trump's tweets I Analyzed them to see if the tonality of his tone using AI Was significant in shifting engagement and I got very lucky After running it about 16 times on SPSS. It came out statistically significant Which means that to a 95% accuracy tone does shift engagement and his overall voice Didn't make a difference on how we moved engagement in terms of likes retweets and replies Now if you take that information and you meant those as NFTs could someone monetize them now? I did not know at the time that they were going to delete Donald Trump's tweets so now we're one of the few databases on www.Twitterism.com With the ism.com and so we are now looking at that data and saying what did we learn from this? and how can we now apply this to an Influencer or a nano or a different type of influencer and how can we help he or he or she monetize? Their content that they're generating or if they get a paid post How can we help them be able to go ahead and (14/34)
collectively share that with their fans and followers? So you're looking at NFTs right when I see even even at the conference JPEGs digital art some of them have utility features When I see NFTs, I feel like people don't understand what you understand and even what I see where this is access This is services ownership Explained that where you know that seems to me like the next level How do we how do we get there right? Because I think what we got right now a lot had to do very quickly with the metaverse and ownership how to do with cold it Politics right in the last three four years where no matter what size you're on, right? This is freedom of speech country You don't get like holy cow. I get kicked off the same the wrong thing about cold It you know, a lot of people believe it or not that you know, you spoke of your wife You don't know that you don't own this stuff from the internet. You don't own it You think you have a 20 million YouTube following they shut a button off you gone. (15/34)
That's right. You're done You know, you're doing that. That's one of the things I mean think about it You lose all your tweets you lose all your content, but here's I'm gonna even blow your mind even further What happens when you die? What happens to all your content? You're right So yeah who gets that? Is there is there not value in that content? Absolutely. Yeah, your family members don't get it It's not Facebook exactly says oh by the way, I'm gonna gift it to your family You know Facebook hat is a is a ecosystem and they can't do that that that's taking into another So we feel that we can help in that component. Just imagine if you took all your Facebook posts and convert them as NFTs Now who owns them? Now if there's something there there's a perpetual royalty that can be earned and that's what people don't understand But the NFT is not a JPEG image. It's data So whatever data you put inside that NFT in that wrapper So if I take this microphone and I wrap it as an NFT I can (16/34)
disperse the sale of it and then if I'm gone you will still get the royalties Fascinating I know I mean we're talking about a game changer we could be feeding our great-grandchildren from now. Yep Now how does this filter in because you have metaverse companies and for me? I'm doing the same thing with the metaverse I think I feel like you're doing NFTs where the things that I've seen this isn't a video game This is ownership of your own content There's a reason why the biggest companies like the gatekeepers the incident are the biggest investors in the metaverse right now, which is crazy What is the metaverse to you? And how does that factor into the NFTs and the things that you're doing in the future? So I think the NFTs are we have to look at them for what they are and NFT is a token It's a non fungible token. We spend a lot on the non fungible. We don't focus enough on a token when you have a token in the metaverse, it has a variety of value and that value then has to change into (17/34)
some kind of Behavioral result as an asset it has to have a worth So when we engage and we purchase an NFT, how do we take that value in the metaverse and actually make it? maturely Create worth for me So that right there is the challenge of the metaverse because people a have not Experienced it yet be some of them haven't even visited and then see is that when they go inside there? They don't know not necessarily what to do you and I right now are educating You know thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people about NFTs and the potential but we're only 24 months into this Now the science has been there for a long time. It's been on the blockchain etc I remember studying at MIT in 2017 and saying all this is cool but what about Right now who's going to teach people what they need to do with an NFT and how they can utilize it And then I think it's the challenge with the metaverse because it compounds a tenfold If the NFT is basically the token that's gonna be utilizing in the (18/34)
metaverse Then how do I go and actually operate in the metaverse and and when you try to explain something that you've never experienced before It's very difficult and so I think our point of entry from social pay me standpoint will be identifications Personas will create passports so that if you create a Twitter fitter sitter whatever Application you have will be able to authenticate them because I've always thought it was really ridiculous that in order to get that checkmark I really had to kiss up to the social media platforms. I Mean, why can't they just do a KYC and identify me exactly? There's a reason why because I can monetize my accounts Yes, and I would hurt their advertising. Absolutely. Yes. Are you with me? Yeah. No, I'm with you understand Oh, what if social pay me could I still allow them to participate but we verify them and People are willing to go ahead and say I'm not a fake person. I'm willing to say who I am Yeah, because I want to participate in this ecosystem No (19/34)
one out here in the NFT world saying I want to you don't be fake and That's where the media and everyone else is playing up on this I think history will look back at this and everything else and say wow What was going on really and I think there has to be an academic Scientific approach to entering the space and hoping that my passion for me for the next, you know as long as God puts me on this planet is to do the academic research to show and Document what people are actually doing that's fantastic if people want to learn more about you And by the way, before I even say that and free pitch I appreciate this I think you and I may be two of the last people here that actually doing business with Talking here goes in the background He even came here at the end where the conference is closed. We can get this video to see if he hit a polls That's why but if someone wants to learn more about you, you know, how could they do that? Hi, yeah www.robby Singh calm Ravi si ngh calm but I really (20/34)
encourage people to sign up on social pay me for the drop that's coming out But more importantly social pay me I think will be a game changer for everyone free economics. So social p a y me.com So that's it. Thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate doing this interview this late with everything going on I really appreciate thank you Pretty exciting stuff. I Know and if teas are difficult to understand I Know there's a lot of BS of this industry but I also know that There's billions flowing into NFT platforms and projects and this money is not coming from like kids in crypto and speculating and stuff like that It's coming from the biggest and best venture capitalists in the world These are people who are early investors in almost every big-name technology company that you see today The ones even with trillion dollar violations. They were some of the first investors in Facebook Twitter coinbase top crypto projects These are the guys that invest in coinbase in 2012 when the (21/34)
valuation was like 50 million and it came out at whatever 60 70 80 billion. Yes, it has come down, but these guys don't care Because they're in they're cheap They get first look at the best stuff and they tell most of the time they say no They do say yes it's usually a good investment for these guys and They're all investing almost across the board NFTs Web 3 the metaverse And this is a smart my this is like a super smart money So we're in the middle creating tons of educational material content NFTs in the metaverse It's gonna include videos not just of me but from the smartest people industry who I'm meeting like dr. Singh But tons of people are coming to us and for me That's what I want to bring in front of you to show you what we're seeing Where I'm investing why I'm going all-in in a market where I know you're seeing a terrible CPI. Holy shit. The markets come down It's been a crappy week we've gone up and we just gave back all those gains are we gonna hit the lows again? We're (22/34)
gonna kick, you know, it's difficult fine. This is something that you need to prepare for you need to start investing There's a reason why the big money is flowing in in one of the worst markets in decades Easily in decades, I mean you don't see it's not often where you have a global recession the feds still raising rates They're usually lowering rates Trying to spur economic growth. There's growth is stopped It's gonna get a lot worse and this market where yes It's gonna be a great time for investments and things like that and that's fine There's certain things that are going to work. I'm gonna bring those to you But these are the areas that we're going all in on These are the people were partnering with these are people that we're talking to you're gonna see a lot of partnerships occurs in research With a lot of these great people that have massive massive followings because they know that hey We need a guy from Wall Street that people trust Because we have some great projects and my (23/34)
job is to find those great projects and bring you the good stuff and the good people Because if you look at crypto, like I said from the day one day one I covered it in crypto Told you 90% of the stuff I look at is garbage 10% is absolutely amazing at one time the average gain that in our portfolio is the average was over 600% Yes, a lot of stuff has gotten crushed But you could see the returns that you could generate in this industry Because billions is flowing in again metaverse NFTs web3 projects during the worst years You need to start educating yourself on these trends whether it's through me whether it's through somebody else. That's fine Because this industry if you're looking at web3 if you're looking at these things that we're talking about It's not like cloud 5g AI the trench you hear about right? These are industries where insiders big money has mostly access to get into these trends early That's what they were doing in AI. Especially most of these companies are being bought (24/34)
out. How many pure AI companies? Do you know that are publicly traded? I Mean, there's companies that have AI capabilities, but they're not pure AI companies So the private companies that got bought by all the major technology companies right away You Don't have access to these visual investors 5g you really don't oh, you know These companies have come out and they're getting to find until about early super super early same thing with cloud and These guys were invested so early before most people knew what cloud was Probably a good five years before people know how it was it's different most of the big-money Wall Street They still don't understand NFTs and they definitely don't send understand the metaverse. I saw that this week I Mean just look at my Twitter Afrin Curzio, I'm gonna follow me follow me If not, don't again a very controversial and I like to push buttons on and have fun with it but man, just the shit that I was seen on CNBC from Just a story that's being told out there. (25/34)
Well, I don't see everyone wearing these big glasses. It's not about glasses You're not gonna wear glass. You're not gonna wear these big headsets. No That's not what the metaverse is about And look how clunky the graphics are the graphics are million times better But this is about ownership and this is about what happened over the past couple of years that changed that changed our culture and It's gonna change our culture forever of what we saw during the political season during kovat And I haven't met then right if you look on a CDC site right now that's listed as a treatment for kovat Yet they almost ruined and tried to destroy Joe Rogan's career when he took that and said it worked for him I was reporting things on kovat and people were Drilling me when it had nothing to do with money. It had nothing to do with me I was just saying hey, you know, I have kids with you. This is what I'm hearing I'm fortunate enough to have a you know following you guys listening and you know people (26/34)
emailing me overseas and tell me what was going on before it even came to the US and then we look at politics and Regardless of what side you like or what we the United States is founded on freedom of speech. I Mean you have to be able to debate because there's one thing we could both agree on I wouldn't say the left and the far far right would agree on but most you know moderate Democrats and Republicans is we want the best for our children we can all agree on that and we want to leave This place when we go in a better place for our children and make the next generation better, right? Isn't that the ultimate goal? So, why don't we talk about climate change why don't we debate about about tough topics and back and forth We're in a world where you can't debate You're in a world where you better follow an agenda Especially if you work as an anchor for one of these companies you better support them You try being conservative the times you're fired. You're gone. Goodbye And remember what (27/34)
when the news channels used to have seriously on CNBC on Fox and CNN MSNBC is just gone They're gone. That's like the ultimate. I hate America channel. I want to kill everybody and shoot myself in the face channel I mean, holy cow I've never seen so much like anger and pissed off people in my life But even CNN Fox and you're looking at so many of these shows they used to bring on CNBC like people from both sides right used to be on conservative and and You know someone who's a liberal or or just and and have a talking point have the back and forth They used to be like that. It used to be like that. It was three years ago now It's just like we're just gonna bring on people to just jam our message down your freaking throat. I Mean, there's no like there's nobody coming on just giving you a different opinion or suggesting something else I mean that is not healthy That's not how you know, we got to where we are and you know, the most powerful country greatest country in the world But we (28/34)
all saw this and getting how does this factor in? Well, the metaverse this is this is what factors into the metaverse it's the freedom This is why crypto was created because there's not trust. This is why Bitcoin was created. There's no trust in the system We don't trust our politicians We need another currency now. You seen the blockchain now you're seeing NFTs, you know having records of everything that you have right there That's your stamp of approval. Nobody can change it This is the ledger. It doesn't have to be kept at a bank that's gonna charge you fees You get a chance to create whatever you want or say whatever you want or do whatever you want You don't have to worry about it That's what the internet was about. That's the metaverse. It's not this freaking clunky system of people like oh my god They're gonna play a big video game and hang out. No, just people are not getting it at all But you know who's starting to get it. The venture capitalist is definitely getting it Wall (29/34)
Street starting see fidelity Fidelis now offering crypto and Bitcoin black rock their Aladdin system That's software that everybody's on money managed services. It's 21 trillion dollars in assets 22 trillion in assets on the management They just partner with coinbase to give them access to crypto It's coming but for individual investors you see you have the chance to get in very very early here And I'm not telling you to sell everything and go in but it's 5% of your capital needs to be dedicated to the space Just 5% Just like 5% was the uranium 5% to gold and 5% I mean you look at gold wasn't do good But 5% whatever maybe it's 10% technology in large-cap and that you know Just surge and provided you amazing returns for 10 years. Why gold did shit now uranium is doing well You know, you want to be diversified in certain areas and speculate in certain areas This is an area where that 5% if you get this right could be worth 5 X the size of the rest of your 95% of your portfolio Where (30/34)
people are speculating in small caps that are already publicly traded companies that come out some of them at billion-dollar valuations Where a lot of the growth already took place? That's the market we live in with SPACs and all this bullshit the road shows and crazy valuations that came out of In crypto you could invest in the ground floor of a lot of these companies and this is what I want to present to you I'm gonna be continue to bring guys that dr. Singh Just great great names in crypto people that invested in bored apes when it just you look at that blog post And one guy that I was talking to was in his blog post. He's like tell him to buy bored apes NFTs when they were like a few hundred dollars thousand dollars He's like you need to buy this stuff at $800. You need to get a hold of some of these I mean some of them going for millions now These are guys that early investors in this stuff and laughing as you know Other people are getting in so late into these bullshit trends, (31/34)
but these are the people I want to bring in front of you This is the stuff I want to educate you on and is there a learning curve? Yes as you get older Do you want to learn more? No, you hate learning new shit, right? You just settle your wage you want to sit in your chair and watch TV programs and whatever Try to get out of that Because this is an area that's very exciting right now. We've done the research. We've been in it. We're spending money I'm fully invested in this thing. I'm not just talking shit here, but this is an area that's very very exciting again Even if you don't want to look at the stuff that we're creating Educate yourself on this sector. You could find some stuff out there. Be careful the sites that you look at But a lot of people want to work with us we're gonna bring a lot of these big names to you in lots of interviews lots of educational content and Open up those questions and start doing live chats. This way everyone could participate you could ask lots of (32/34)
questions We could bring on you know, really cool people If everyone's an idiot or a troll we can kick them off immediately again Just things that we want to do to help the community because once those communities are built just like it's a cop the podcast that we have And Wall Street on club these you have those groups and those communities are extremely extremely powerful That's what we're looking to build here And right now it is it's starting to get very powerful with the contacts that we have the interviews I have the people that work going to get a lot of fun and continue to bring interviews like this to you Let me know what you think. Can I say this all times podcast about you know about me So, you know you thought of that interview and everything. I just said and Frank curves of research calm that's Frank at curbs of research calm really appreciate all support and And For those of you who are freebies I'll see you next week those of you who subscribe to one of our services and (33/34)
pay for some of our research I'll see you tomorrow frankly speaking special podcast only goes out to you So sending you questions as always love answering them those people see tomorrow everyone else. Have a great weekend. Enjoy football I'll see you next week. Take it Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's March 1st Now Frank courage us the Washington pockets will bring the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So I'm about to say may get me a little bit of trouble, but I think the world should know it I think it's very important We're doing business with Bank of America our corporation since we started this business five years ago and Bank of America last week Tied to send me a letter saying that they would no longer do business with courage your research found that interesting maybe it's cause we Talk about crypto, but CNBC talks about crypto. Maybe it's cause we invested in TCG Yet, you know Nike investing in roblox or other major retailing companies are Investing in roblox to build a metaverse puts some par and how just set of revenue is derived by the same thing (1/34)
over the past five years, which is subscriptions and The letter they sent to us Right letter. They didn't call me didn't call me personally sent the letter But I said they would no longer do business with us and we restrict deposits on your accounts I said you have 30 days to transfer everything out of Bank of America and in this letter They write a number to call it says we're here if you have any questions So I called it and I want you to listen To exactly what's on this recording If you have been referred to this phone number It is because we are unable to open new accounts or add one or more applicants to your existing account This decision cannot be overridden If you have recently received a letter stating your account or accounts are being closed The reason for this is that Bank of America made a business decision to close the account We have determined you operate in the business time We elect not to service at Bank of America the decision to close the account will not be (2/34)
reconsidered Press one to speak to an agent So when I press the number one, it actually goes to a voicemail so I don't let you talk to anyone But imagine your bank just send you a letter out of the blue saying hey, you know what we're no longer doing business with you We're not gonna provide a reason we're not gonna talk to you about it You can't talk to us about it can't defend yourself. No matter what this decision will not be reversed It's pretty effing crazy Now we're fine as a business. We set up with a mid-tier bank or perfectly fine Like I said earlier Bank of America sucked. Anyway, we're looking to move right the prize good rates charges massive amount of fees We're lots of problems with them lots of problems with them But again, we have everything integrated payroll your corporation everything integrated him It's just you know, we'll get to and get to wanted to get to it after tax season Should've been a little bit better But they didn't care they didn't care when they sent (3/34)
this out they didn't say hey you have three months They said nope you have a month So I started making some calls talking to people within the industry and the bigger point here All the major banks have been instructed by the regulators the government to shut down all crypto operations So Basically said hey if you don't then we're gonna find you and the hammer is going to come down You can look at a Wall Street Journal had a great article about this Everything always gets leaked first at Wall Street Journal the Fed all the regulations stuff gets leaked to Wall Street Journal first This is from like four or five days ago. They've been doing this over the past Month or so, but highlights how big banks are backing away from crypto companies And how it follows the FTX blob which by the way had nothing to do with crypto This was fraud where person side take customer deposits through its brokerage the trading arm right that platform and Illegally distribute them to its hedge fund which was (4/34)
losing billions and billions of dollars right this is classic fraud Anyway, nobody really cared that much Because FTX was huge paying everybody including famous athletes to market their brand They're allowed to go in a hill and discuss how regulation would help the industry because why? They would donate billions and billions and billions of dollars lobbying dollars To politicians mostly those big donations went to Democrats So of course this crackdown did not happen before the donations were given right. This is pre midterm election cycle You look at FTX they filed for bankruptcy just shortly after midterm elections, and then all the stuff started coming out perfect timing Right you're not gonna do before No way not during the midterm election. That's much more important right, but it's not just the major banks The government started going after almost everyone who's currently doing business have law of operation in crypto If you look at signature Bank one of the biggest crypto banks (5/34)
in terms of assets They just announced a had to cut ties with finance the international part Silvergate no longer accepting accounts everybody's been saying that's a fraud for probably six months now. No smoking gun no fraud people are removing assets The stock is going down because people are worried that if I have your assets in there if there's an FTX situation I may lose my money, so you can't blame them, but fraud That exposure of eight billion dollars to FTX and what do they do they sold debt securities They sold other things a little bit for a loss, and they paid it off They're operational doesn't matter It's my say Herbalife where it's a Ponzi scheme. It's a Ponzi scheme well eventually It's not that difficult to prove that it's a Ponzi scheme It's not too difficult to prove this illegal operations, and it's been six months now Have we seen a smoking gun I haven't I? Hear all the short sellers mentioned that they have it they have it have all this information I have it I have (6/34)
for six months. They recently got blown out of the position. Yes, it crashed tremendously This is something we generate over thousand percent returns on in our newsletter For selling it lately last I think was last year. There's less than 12 months Just took off We talking about you know Silvergate and also signature And I guess this how our government which includes what the Federal Reserve federal deposit insurance Corporation the office of the comptroller of the currency right those are three major ones and even the SEC It's getting involved right this is how they plan to deal with crypto Not by providing laws but by picking and choosing Who could do business who doesn't instead of actually get providing those guidelines that everyone can follow So a grayscale is about to go to court right I think this decision is gonna be made the SEC And they said listen. I don't care much of course. We are going after them and will appeal appeal appeal appeal a Supreme Court they just want to (7/34)
know why the SEC approved several Bitcoin future products, which are competitors to grayscale and Have not approved grayscale to actually launch a Bitcoin ETF They haven't provided sufficient reasons for that You guys you see they say hey the guidelines are there for everyone I think they pretty much checked off all the guidelines whether you believe in that or not In terms of grayscale and what type of product it is but again There's guidelines you have to check off, and I don't think they're going to court if they didn't check off all those guidelines, but why? Why are they picking and choosing? What do we see and this has been happening over the past four to six weeks guys? Finance just to spend US dollar transfers cracking just force to pay a major fine 30 million for its staking business I understand that part of the business and why you going after when it comes to staking so a lot of these companies were Voyager BlockFi Celsius a lot of bullshit around these industries (8/34)
Interviewed the CEO BlockFi I asked him I remember asking him that you know How do you able to pay the higher interest rates? I think this is before my interest rates where you can get you know five percent On a six-month t-bill where rates are now Because when it rates was zero they're offering five percent seven percent twelve percent hike and he couldn't really answer. I didn't understand it Why in our newsletters we never advised anyone to stake ever. I just didn't understand it I'm not gonna recommend things. I don't understand I get that part of it, but they just settled now Coinbase that they're suspending BUSD. That's Binance's stablecoin And the SEC if you notice has been putting out articles everyplace Going into that media contacts showing how hey, you know, we have our eyes on stablecoins Really you have your eyes on stablecoins. That's where you see the most risk stablecoins This 3,000 plus probably 5,000 plus utility tokens where most should have their founders and CEOs (9/34)
locked up I know because I did the research on a lot of these They raise money through a utility token and investors buying into that offering Expect to make money on that token, which is the exact definition of a security. That's why we launched a security token And our token is just like a stock Regulations there everything is checked going through guidelines It's not crypto it's a security token is a digital asset It's much different than a utility token where you have no information or nothing But if you look at these other companies, nobody knows where the money is that they raised They have new cars and houses Most of these tokens their only value is tied to their utility feature For Binance that's using that token to lower your fees or you could book trips and buy different things They have hundreds and hundreds of uses. That's utility that creates demand When you use that token it gets burned that's fine. That's the way the system works 90% of these do not have any utility (10/34)
features meaning that token is absolutely worthless absolutely worthless Also, you can't find any info on the company how much the insiders still own what's going on? They provided this whole outlook and these updates a lot of these guys have taken that money and actually invested it in other crypto ideas Which they didn't outline when they were raising money I mean some of these companies don't even provide a picture of the executive teams. They'll have like a link to a LinkedIn account And when you click it, it's like a face of an NFT. They don't have a lot of followers They'll just have like a brief description on what the company does. That's it. Maybe that much of a background We know who these people are where to find them. You try to do searches try to do searches on some of these people Try to do a search on me and Google try to do a search on anyone you see in CBC and Google You'll find a whole profile everything Your reviews positive negatives people writing about you if (11/34)
you've been in the industry for a long time, that's great You could do your own research again. All of you should do your own research on me before you listen to me Do you do diligence that's your job try to do diligence on some of these companies you can't I know Don't bother looking I've looked for you It's just remarkable but stable coins are the issue. Let's go up to stay but it just shows you how much they don't know about the industry With that said trying to shut down crypto at this stage by going to the banks kind of like we do marijuana kind of like We did with gambling and things like that. Well, you don't know what the hell to do the banks. I mean the banks don't provide I mean some of them may provide capital but you can't use your debit account to purchase marijuana where it's not approved on the federal Level but it's proven state level same thing when it comes to You know different gambling sites a lot of you enjoy being able to gamble not just horse racing or fantasy (12/34)
football But actually betting on games through I think 34 states Florida's one of them that you can't And that's fine But a lot of companies when you fill out new accounts or brokers firms or whatever they say you don't do any business in marijuana you don't do any business in Gambling and no not at all But trying to shut down crypto at this stage and putting it in that category and I mentioned this analogy and it's relevant again It's like telling my teenage daughter stop dating a new boyfriend with the ten tattoos in the motorcycle I mean she's gonna end up marrying him a week later, right? They do exactly what you tell them not to do this is the younger generation that grew up with this Millennials are now 40 years old They're used to Bitcoin. They understand the digital age. Most of the kids that are growing up on roblox Those are the kids that are growing up using Minecraft or fortnight their developers. They don't even know it That's the future watch your kids when they're on (13/34)
these sites. They're developing They could pretty much write code if they want. It won't be difficult for them to learn But ensure trying to take something that goes against especially the biggest institutions of the world central banks Who have unlimited spending Politicians don't give a shit about anyone. They have no accountability. They'll spend money. Look how much money is being funded to Ukraine right now More than what Russia is paying for their war. Are you kidding me? Do you approve it? Do I approve it? Should we help them? Are you can debate whether we should help them or not? And why don't we just go to war Russia? I mean providing the weapons is like someone providing you would you know about to fight someone and and You know a guy gives him a baseball bat and a gun to fight me. I Mean, aren't they in the fight? Kind of you supplying them But this amount of money Going out of our country with the problems that we have in our country that could be solved. I Mean, come on. (14/34)
Give me a break. No accountability. It doesn't matter doesn't matter what you think. Nobody cares politicians Don't do what we want supposed to so democracy is right. We hire people to represent their constituents, but they don't we know that Most of them don't and you can't they have no choice They probably go in as independent being like hey, I'm gonna make changes and then their party goes to them and says hey If you don't vote with us, you're fucked. You're not gonna get funding. You're not gonna get anything ever Never be on your side with anything or we can give you this this this this this this this and this If you vote party lines and within a week you're voting party lines you have to you don't have a choice That's our political system very easily corruptible. It's why China when you have one person in charge They look at our government say wow This is pretty easy to corrupt with all these greedy motherfuckers on the other side That really don't have to answer to someone even (15/34)
when you catch them with things and nobody really cares So it's the way our system is set up is a greatest thing in the world, but it's easily corruptible Very easily you could see that with the spending and what we're doing. How can we never blame China? Remember getting kicked off when right now we were seeing the truth that which is a fact and something that you know again I was reporting Thanks to my contacts in January 2020 before Kobe even came here how it came out of Wuhan and hearing about a Wuhan lab and how this happened and right Away, you know the media was just through people offline Do not say that it's not a China virus. It's not that everyone knows where it came from There's a reason why the who didn't was and no one none scientists anyone and doctors were allowed China to let anyone in and the who still came out and said wow, we love how China is handling this situation and It's not from China even though they were not a lot China did not allow them to go into the (16/34)
country to investigate to try to help people where Maybe we could have stopped this before million Americans died seven million people died Now we know the truth and still we're not saying anything like hey is any are we coming out against China at all? No, we're not allowed to everything's Russia blame Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia crazy But a lot has to do with this central government this power and people have less and less control But when you're looking at the reckless spending and this is just not in the US but across all nations Look what's going on China right now How much they trying to inflate this mark their market right now and how much debt? They have how much trouble they're in you're not hearing that you're not hearing the real stories Just say oh China's opening everything's okay. Everything's not okay in China You could buy their stocks and enjoy the trend enjoy what everyone says and they're gonna lie about their numbers But be very very very very careful It's (17/34)
hard to do research because a lot of the information is suppressed especially by Google If you have good contacts and you really see what's going on in China, which I report You can hear a lot of especially Wall Street unplugged premium. You can see why everyone is up in arms and pissed off But If you're looking at digital, this is the future Bitcoin a theorem digital country Currencies these this is the future. This is where we're going. It's already integrated The more you try to take it away the stronger it gets Notice what Bitcoin is it continues to go higher the 24,000 well-offered slows of 15,000 It's why Bitcoin adoption continues to grow with the amount of Bitcoin stored in a lightning Network payment protocol just hit an all-time high 20 amount of dresses on the Bitcoin network continues to grow which is now 44 million record high 44 million These trends are happening now They're happening now as regulations are clamping even more You see more adoption and it makes sense (18/34)
They're gonna try to take something away from you More someone tells you notice something especially something that's like this. That's this innovative The more people are gonna want it and adopt it and while you look at the regulation the BS the government is still on the Banks and by the way, it's on the banks. Most of the major banks not brokers firms like fidelity Coinbase not asset managers like BlackRock. That's different. We're talking about banks the banking laws So fidelity is like hey, we're cool. Coinbase is cool. They're regulated. It's amazing how a company like galaxy digital. They won't even let Go public they did it coin bases Okay, but again, what are the rules? Galaxy's amazing company that company should be doing much much better But they're on a bulletin board trying to get an asset they can't they've been trying to do it for two years They got hit as hard as everybody else with crypto had a little exposure FTX But now they have I mean you have to see some of the (19/34)
moves in cryptos even our portfolio We had one that was down 65% so 55% Give several names that have taken off tremendously last five six names. We're seeing big reversals our Bitcoin position. Not Bitcoin is up Tremendously Ethereum's up tremendously because we recommend that early 10x. I believe we have Binance is up 20x for us get an early investment I mean, could you see those types of gains anyplace else? But you seen strength in the real names within this industry when it comes to regulation the BS the government's doing I tell him no matter what Crypto company it is whether it's compliant whether it's even crypto company or not like cursor research. We're not a crypto company We talk about cryptos. I'm talking about Bitcoin We're not crypto company hundred-star review comes from subscriptions. We invested in TCG Maybe that triggered something or whatever, but for us not to be able to call them and say hey, what are you doing too bad? This is what we decided no questions asked (20/34)
think about that for a minute That's fucking insane, right? It's insane when you think about it. We're able to switch operations go to another bank We were in good standing we have you know Very little charge offs, but everything's integrated and takes a little while we got that done within a week a lot of banks would love to do business with us because you know we do a lot of business generate revenue and Wires fees investments everything across the board using their credit cards and stuff and any Business would love to have us we're in good standing But to have to stop doing business with them just because an algorithm triggered something what algorithm triggered us and what a joke I'm thinking hopefully it's a step where the government Will regulate crypto the right way right to make sure It's safe. Everyone knows where their money is you're not worried about hackers You sign up to etrade Schwab wherever you go fidelity online accounts. You're not worried about it. They're doing all (21/34)
the checks in the background You're not worried about anything. That's the way crypto has to be And it's light years from where it was three years ago four years ago. It's easy I'll put up an account on coinbase and trade. It's very very easy. It's not that difficult They used to take weeks and weeks and weeks Don't take that long anymore, but that's out what I was hoping. Okay. We've seen this regulation but to restrict all major banks from doing business or crypto companies as If they were marijuana companies gambling companies, I mean that that's a complete joke Especially What's happening with gambling notice how gambling right if you know is ten years ago even as much as like five six years ago No, it's how the NFL Major League Baseball NBA all against gambling. You can't gamble no gambling. No gambling to get they had these commercials They were you know regulated to have commercials saying how bad is the gamble now? Look at them they have commercials Mid-game promoting if you go (22/34)
to this website right now and fan duel Will give you a 20% discount or a free trade and They'll go to the the announcer and say well, who do you like in a second half? Well, I think LeBron James gonna score at least 50. They're actually promoting the shit out of this, right? So they don't care about the people. They just know they can now make money off of it So they're gonna promote the hell out of it but the difference is That's gambling. I mean marijuana fine. You want to smoke it do whatever you want People have the right to do whatever they want feel good and relaxed I don't care more people to smoke pot the better less angry people would be that's fine We're talking about an industry With the greatest innovations that we've seen in the past 20 years are coming from I mean you're looking at Dow Dow is one of the biggest trends of the world. This is governance This is voting you don't really have those rights when you're a shareholder you think you do but you don't You do when (23/34)
you're black rock and you have these massive companies been around for 30 years and those shares are distributed but most even mid-tier you have big owners and a lot of them like Under Armour have structures in place where you know Their shares count for three four shares of this class and this class we you know, you can't vote You can't do anything. They have total control It's very rare that you see it. You'll see some some of these, you know you notice how when you have Elliott management right a lot of these hedge funds Come hostile. They try to convince other members that hey the company's not being run that well I mean those shares are distributed and it's almost always with large caps bigger companies We don't have one or two shareholders only, you know a big amount of shares unless you're what Vanguard black rock Those are big companies. They own everything convinced them and the next thing, you know, you get what is it engine whatever number it is climate change person on the (24/34)
board of Exxon probably trying to Make sure they don't drill as much That's when stuff like that happens, but Dow allows everyone to imagine if everyone had their own vote And you for everything for anything that you wanted for any kind of measure, you know politicians or whatever that we were able to vote That's what's going on crypto. The majority of people have to approve this in order to get a protocol passed It's an unbelievable trend go look it up. Look at ancient Horowitz. They wrote a massive paper on this Oh how this is the future. This is coming out of crypto Look at a metaverse you could tell me to determine however you want Online gameplay, you know, just another social media aspect more interaction I mean one of the largest companies in the world change its name to meta Now you're not letting banks do business. I mean are you letting Facebook do business with your banks with your major banks? I mean, they're pretty engulfed into crypto in the metaverse. What about DeFi (25/34)
decentralized finance NFTs? Look at the volume of T's over the past few months absolutely surging real projects a lot of bullshit in that industry But now there's real projects one that I invested in that I'm up 12 13 times on it's called killer bears I talked to management. I love what they're doing. They're building an amazing brand and providing value. I said, okay, I'm gonna invest And I'll put on on it But a lot of people getting crushed and this is in September when the market if you're looking for since September till now It's probably down a lot But there are great projects where again like a stock you talk to the manager and you talk to them I'm like wow, this guy didn't talk about money. He's not looking to to raise any cash This guy just has a brilliant idea that is all in he's got developers. He's building this this Massive community that's awesome that posts all the time that now has doctors and wealthy individuals in it Find like the pump-and-dump garbage that you see in (26/34)
so many NFTs and stuff like that No, and this gives you ownership actual ownership of a product like a patent on the blockchain. That's NFTs. It's massive The trend you won't be able to stop They're coming out against crypto these banks why cuz it threatened the old way of doing business as bankers Which is what charging massive massive massive amount of fees on everyone I mean, this is disruptive technology and by trying to limit it and restrict it. You know what you can't and You won't be able to this isn't the way they just don't know it. They're too dumb when it comes to this stuff That's why I took them so long regulate again things. Maybe I shouldn't be saying Let's see what happens believe me I'll be reporting all the time on this because I speak my mind and we're independent You're only gonna make this industry stronger And Now only you're making this industry stronger look at the places that are adopting whether it's the Middle East whether it's Hong Kong places around the (27/34)
world These countries are integrating crypto They're gonna be much much much stronger than the u.s. Adopting these technologies And the u.s. Is being left behind especially when you're telling the banks recently that hey, you know what cut ties of crypto We're a great example of this and when I started talking even to my lawyer everybody else My lawyer said listen, I I work with a bunch of businesses and several of them within crypto and they all said the same thing Then they got completely shut down and they have to move their accounts in place. It's just a blanket statement by the government How crazy is that not looking at crypto companies where a lot of them is shit, but some of them are real But this is where the innovation is taking place. You saw a lot of bankruptcies, which is good a massive wreck last year Which is great for the market get rid of a lot of bullshit Which you see and almost every major trend going back for the past 50 to 100 years Get this hype cycle you get the (28/34)
bullshit you get the assholes trying to make money and Then you get a complete wipeout and the ones that survive turn out to be Microsoft Google Facebook Amazon That's the way business works, but that's why you've seen the strength in crypto right now For the first time really you seen strength in crypto where the market is falling We've had a bad February at least the last three weeks of February You're not used to seeing that right usually hey all assets are going higher and Risky assets are going higher small caps are going higher That's why you saw crypto run up off of its lows along with you know The Nasdaq and the Russell surging but look how much the Nasdaq pulled back. Look how much Russell has pulled back Look what Bitcoin is we need a high 25,000. It's a 24,000 Trying to look see if I get a quote on CNBC right now. I Expect that trend to continue now that they're trying to shut them down They're not going to be able to but I think this trend of seeing Bitcoin go higher and (29/34)
higher higher You're gonna see it through 2023 and well into the future. This is the future of technology This is the younger generation of what they want. They hate the current system They should hate the current system because it's a lot of bullshit out there. We could have central banks and spending and craziness They want something different. They want something that they can own. They want something they can believe in and that's Bitcoin. That's a theory and A lot of those major tokens have gotten killed that are down 89% they're up a hundred two hundred percent off their lows in a past couple of months much more than the overall market Because those are the survivors the survivors are gonna do very very well going forward A lot of those names can be found our portfolio, which has really been kicking ass Yes, if you looked at it six months ago, you'd want to puke We're up over 600% the average position our portfolio was up 600% in our crypto intelligence newsletter And we saw some (30/34)
names down 70 80% we took small positions in them. That's why we didn't have stops small positions Usually we don't go higher than 6% on a position the motion could lose on a position And now over the past few months. I mean a lot of these things have absolutely surged Especially last five or six names are all up a ton, which is great. This is what we want to see whether the storm and Watch and invest into good technologies to good names of ones that are transparent to real companies That innovating that are providing amazing software amazing technology and that's a lot of names in that portfolio But this is why you're seeing strengthen crypto They tell someone no and it's this big to me more adoption more people are gonna want to get into it And that's what you see Again, I expect this trend Bitcoin going higher steadily higher be back and forth But I don't think it's gonna depend on the market anymore It's not gonna be moving or you know high beta moves higher than the market and (31/34)
moves lower than the market when it goes down I think you're gonna see a steady trend A month after month after month of just steady going higher and higher and higher and believe me This will be over a hundred thousand. I don't know when It could be three years. It could be five years but it's gonna consistently go higher and higher as more and more people adopt it especially with all the shit that we're seeing out of every central bank and Our politicians across the world not just in the US With that said love this episode Wall Street unplugged, I think you'll really love Wall Street unplugged premium The Wall Street premium is my members only podcast where I dive even deeper into this week's events Well do even more than tell you what's moving these markets tell you specifically What moves you can make today? So this is gonna be about trading Put big money in your pocket right away due to the inconsistencies. I see daily in the market I'm talking about specific investment ideas. I'm (32/34)
recommending and tracking each week that I believe would be impacted directly by everything. I Just talked about today plus you're gonna get the chance to go even further down the rabbit hole with me and My co-host was Daniel Creech as we discuss which of these week's trends could turn into massive windfalls Could the big trends that we see look in horizon also the news were picking up from our network of insiders Which has gotten bigger and bigger thanks to you and so many people Listening to this podcast in over a hundred countries and you get a chance to talk to me directly in my special Ask me anything Q&A session All that and a lot more like premium views with world leaders and finance technology industry and politics This is all part of Wall Street unplugged premium and becoming a member is super simple and super cheap So I don't over to wsu offer comm to check it all out sign up today and you won't miss a thing. That's wsu offer comm Hey guys. Thanks so much for listening (33/34)
question comments. I'm here for you Email me Frank Curzio research calm this Frank at Curzio research comm Happy March everyone. Glad spring is here. Well, at least in Florida. It's here firstly starts in a few weeks Although some of you are getting snow across the country I'll be sure to send you a picture on my Twitter account at Frank Curzio me my pool drinking a cocktail So you guys could really really hate me all seriousness Have a great week be careful in this crazy market stream instruments volatile I'll see you guys next week. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's going out there. It's Tuesday March 29th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Have to start off by saying Rock Chalk Jayhawk Final four Which is awesome along with Villanova, North Carolina and Duke And we heard all the talks of upsets for this tournament She is different as we're gonna see more parity among those mid major conferences And what do we have arguably the best four programs in the entire league over at least the past ten years probably last 30 years If you want to throw Villanova in there But these are the best programs in the final four. I mean all of them have at least three championships each That's the first time you've had those teams as final four in the history of (1/34)
the final four For Lenovo probably the most final fours. I think over the past six years was it three champions two championships But these are all great teams great programs So it should be a lot of fun and that North Carolina Duke game guys. I mean, it's gonna be special I'm gonna say that it's gonna be the most watched game in the history of the NCAA You couldn't come up with a better script. You have coach K retiring greatest coach ever Arguably almost across all sports and Then this year what happened? I mean these two teams hate each other their schools hate each other This isn't like oh well, we have respect. No, they hate each other hate each other No What from the car like Duke knows that and to the point where Duke when their first meeting when they play they play twice and sometimes They play in a tournament. They didn't play in their conference tournament this year But they play the first time Duke winning at North Carolina But then North Carolina went to Duke and they blew (2/34)
them out on their own court And that was coach K's last home game of his career which they loved so now playing and These the first time they're playing in the NCAA tournament in history. Usually they're on other brackets and the great seeds, but It's gonna be a great game doesn't get better than that And then we have Kansas against Villanova, which should also be a great game despite Villanova's best player Yes, I said best player and people like glass. He's great as player of the year big East last two years Justin Moore is a second leading scorer the team plays the most minutes He's the best defender by Molly covers the best player on the other team and shuts them down almost every game. They're not deep They're only six deep now. They're five deep so Yeah, they don't have that deep bench But I have a feeling I really wish they were at full strength because both these teams are full strength at the Kansas I seen both of them play Kansas is better. Not that Villanova can't beat them, (3/34)
but I have a feeling that Kansas may play down a little bit Be a little less focused so that games gonna be a lot closer I think people think even though pretty much their best player on that team. I'm not taking anything against Kong less But he's amazing. But that kid is really the engine he's like Man, I mean, there's so many great players like that in the NBA just it's not just role-playing, but he's also a scorer He's a rebound assists everything. So yeah, it should be pretty cool and What Kansas getting I've never been to a Final Four, but I would be going to the Final Four since Kansas is in it But my daughter's making a confirmation this weekend, which I'm very very very proud of But I may go to the final that's if you know Kansas beats Villanova, but if Duke does get in that ticket is gonna be an absolute fortune So I'm probably gonna get too many friends to go Because I don't have many Kansas fans. Maybe I get North Carolina Duke fan to go but that ticket is gonna cause a (4/34)
fortune So it's gonna be coach K's very last game before Retiring but I may go if you are going or you plan on going to the championship game Kansas does make it send me an email Frank because the research calm I may go with you because it's gonna be hard to get Anyone else to go if you're not a fan. They're gonna pay a lot of money for that ticket I'm willing to do that on Monday fly out there and Sunday night Let me know Frank has a research calm now. Let's move on It's interesting to see what's taking place in the market and the volatility Where when the market pulls back what you haven't seen in a few days But when the market pulls back, there's industries that money's clearly flowing into So it's not some massive sell-off in every single sector and stocks which we saw in January and into February Especially when Ukraine Russia really started heating up that was on top of the Fed going crazy and saying well also It's not transitory inflation and we're gonna go crazy and raise rates (5/34)
like like nuts, right? That was in November But we saw everything get hit it didn't matter if it's Bitcoin gold didn't any every single thing got hit banks got everything But now if you've seen over the past couple weeks when the market pulls back gold has been a safe haven uranium agriculture many commodities including oil and These sectors seem to get hit when the Nasdaq does well So if you're looking at this market and where we're going to be Because we still have tons of problems inflation is out of control supply chain issues are worse today than they've been Any single time since COVID any single time since COVID? and again I tracked this stuff and the this is they have satellite imagery of Goldman Sachs you have IHS market which just got bought by SP 500 those guys been tracking this 25 years Both of them are saying their latest reports which are weekly which I read and I get it's horrible It's it's horrible right now. So You're looking at earnings. I can't see earnings (6/34)
exploding Although you're gonna see more buybacks this year than in the history of the markets It's gonna be more than a trillion dollars are expecting I think it might hit a trillion last year But it's gonna outpace that's just just flush with cash on balance sheets and they're gonna use to buy back their stock I don't know if that's gonna be enough To keep a lot of these stock prices higher some of them are gonna do Well, like I said, it's not all sectors. I love the separation cuz I provide the stock pickers market But the two sectors I love the most right now if you're looking at the next year two years five years even into the future Two sectors its banks and crypto and Why is that because that's where trillions of dollars are going to flow into and starting with the banks they make a fortune off of higher rates and If you want to know how much and I covered this a little bit last week But state tree came out and said they're gonna make 25 million each quarter for every 25 basis (7/34)
point hike Let's put those numbers perspective, which I didn't do last quarter last podcast which is last week So that's a hundred million dollars a year Right, if you multiply that again, that's for every 25 basis point hike you multiply that by five Which is expected this year right at least five rate hikes when I say five. I'm counting You know 25 basis point hikes. It could be a 50 that would be three instead of two, right? So they're expected 50 base point hikes going forward at least two more. So that's five It could be even more than that, but say if there's five rate hikes right 25 basis point increases five of them That's a hundred million dollars, right? So a hundred million dollars, which is expected this year now state street is talking five hundred million dollars in pre-tax earnings That's how much it would be with five rate hikes five hundred million pre-tax earnings Which cost almost zero to them? In terms of overhead or anything. They're doing the same exact thing They (8/34)
always did right five hundred million just getting five hundred million dollars in cash now to put that in perspective State Street earned three point two billion in pre-tax earnings So if you're looking at that five hundred million on top of that, that's fifteen percent growth in those earnings, which is likely Going to be if I had a guess over the next 12 months three times faster than The average S&P 500 company. That's how fast a tree for doing nothing and I'm not talking about all the other money They're the three point two billion. They generate this is free money to them free money So they do exactly what they're doing right now lending out money but only at higher rates and This is not fee income This isn't the fee income right? So that fee income that helped them generate three point two billion, right? This is interest income And if you're looking at the banks and you listen to what they're saying It is incredible because there's something very important. You need to know (9/34)
about banks and this is a hidden catalyst We know when streets go higher the spread routine. They make more money. We hear that all the time I'm gonna tell you something that you're not hearing you're not hearing out there with the banks Okay, if you were talking about I haven't read much about I've read it one report talk about this Okay, so banks capture that margin between what they borrow what they lend but with rates so low They generate little interest income over the past how many years so most of earnings we generate through fees Which is investment banking money management credit cards mortgages deposits. That's great They generate huge fees on that and record profits without the interest income Now the Fed is aggressively raising rates, which means all the banks are gonna start earning a lot more in interest income again Which I just explained here's The huge catalyst with banks So usually when the Fed has a tightening cycle and raises rates the saving rate for banks go up so (10/34)
that people keep their money There however banks are more flush with cash than they've ever been in the history of this industry So our rates are rising They do not plan on raising their rates on savings accounts. At least not this year. That's money They have to pay out. So by the way, if you keep it score at home, that's called deposit beta again fancy term Which means the margins a bank makes lending money minus the money it pays out on savings accounts So sell-side analysts they do great research But what they're gonna do is they're gonna compare this cycle is tightening cycle to the past major cycle We saw massive inflation, which is the 80s, right? That's how they model They always look at comps called comparative analysis this way you look at what happened in the past and this is how I'm based on my model in the future and then they Fix the numbers that come up with some kind of target price, right? That's what they do But They're gonna model for their margin to go up a certain (11/34)
percentage based on the last time we had massive inflation where we raised rates Aggressively like in the 80s. So this is when we had mortgage rates at 15% and the savings rate Which people don't talk about they said the mortgage rate. How could you pay that for the savings rate was 12% CDs were paying 18% back then so it wasn't a worst scenario if you had cash It was a great thing if you had cash, it was terrible if you had to borrow money with high interest rates. My point is Banks are not going to have to raise saving rates at least over the next 12 months They're flush with cash That means their margins are gonna explode like no other time in history Because they're basically getting tens of millions in free money simply by doing the same job. They've done for the past 50 years in other words hundreds of millions of dollars For mid to large cap banks that they're gonna generate at almost zero cost So there's a bank triumph Bank Corp, which I'm looking at all the banks and all the (12/34)
quotes from the banks I want you to listen to what they said. This is last one when they report earnings They mentioned this as we move into this what looks like a rising rate environment. We're in a situation That's pretty atypical with the amount of liquidity that the banking system in general has our competitors are flush with liquidity So I don't think any of us are going to be in a rush to be the first ones to start to raise deposit rates So I think early on it's gonna be fairly low longer term. It remains to be seen that means they're gonna make Excuse my language a shitload of money with interest rates higher, but they're not gonna have to raise that savings rate Which is money coming out of the bank, right? So if you look at that stifle Nicholas and I mentioned this last week as well their investment banker lender They said let me be clear. This is what they said is a month ago Let me be clear our base case calls for us to increase our net interest income in 2022 by close to (13/34)
150 million on balance sheet growth alone, right? So without rate hikes Then they go on to say if we get three rate increases That we expect and it's gonna be a lot more than three, but this ain't three that's what modeling for I should say beginning in March Right now our net interest income could possibly increase by approximately 250 million dollars And they say given a low compensation attached to net interest income meaning that they say right there We're not gonna have to spend money for more people or anything like that. There's low compensation, right? This would be a significant driver of a bottom line in 2022 This is not being factored into banks and they're still down well off their lows So guys, here's the plan. You're not gonna hear this out there. But here is the master plan. Okay? Not only should you have banks in your portfolio since you're gonna see massive earnings growth for at least the next 18 to 24 months But it's probably better to transfer some of the cash that (14/34)
you have in your bank Which is in checking savings account money market accounts skin with inflation you get wrecked Transfer that money and buy a large-cap bank with it You're gonna earn at least two and a half percent, right? That's the yield that they're paying. So I'm paying three to four percent but more importantly if you're keeping it at a bank if you're keeping your cash at a bank and They're not gonna raise deposit rates, right? I've seen this from several banks I'm gonna do it at least in the short term. That means you're gonna get destroyed absolutely destroyed by inflation However, if you take that money and buy a banking stock It puts it in your favor. It reverses it, right? So this allows you to take advantage of that massive inflation instead of getting hurt by it By buying the actual bank instead of keeping your money at a bank Of course is risk to owning stocks compared to just you know Having your cash in the savings account which makes you sleep at night and people (15/34)
don't understand how much they're losing with inflation inflation is out of control But there are risks. So don't throw all your cash into a banking site. We could have a crisis that everything gets killed Don't throw all of your cash in there Especially if you need to be liquid and you need it and again You could sell your stock in a bank and have that money probably within a day or two But for me personally, I'm putting 30% plus of my cash in banking stocks One of them I just recommended occurs your venture opportunity, which is actually a small cap named massive deposits Think it's about a three to point eight three percent yield, right? So massive deposit plans on lending a much higher rates waiting for this moment and roughly 70% of their assets are in two states I don't know two states Florida and Texas So those are two the best in terms of population growth and super low taxes. These guys have it right expecting this environment This isn't a boring stock. I'm looking to well, (16/34)
let me keep my money here and earn two point eight percent three percent Whatever to know the earnings growth. These are the new growth stocks The feds definitely raising rates these guys are gonna make an absolute fortune and that one negative they usually have a rising in straight environments They're not gonna have to raise those savings rates, which is money coming out of the banks right now because they're so liquid That's really interesting and I don't see anyone modeling for that Now crypto the other sector I like I don't know if I convince you with banks, but that's what I'm doing Just tell you what I'm doing. You don't have to do it. Whatever you go listen to me say this guy's not see has no idea whatever But crypto so bitcoins now up close to 40% from It's a day before Russia launch its invasion. So this is a These are January 21st 22nd, right? So that's when the US officially announced Russia will invade Ukraine That can best for the SP 500 over that time plane, which is up (17/34)
8% That's how much Bitcoin has outperformed the SP 500 Now, why is it rallying now over the past couple weeks? There's no coincidence I mean if you look at this month alone when you saw Biden's executive order, which is about three weeks ago Okay, I don't care if you like Biden. I don't care whatever it doesn't matter What he did is he opened up the floodgates for institutional money to come into America Okay, so not a coincidence after he made this last three weeks ago What do we see going become the first major bank to trade Bitcoin over the counter Cowen another large investment firm? Well, no boutique but but large so count very respectable company said it will soon allow institutional clients spot Bitcoin trading and Ray Dalio's Bridgewater if you're not familiar with that 150 billion in assets on the management largest hedge fund in the world said it's about to make An investment into a crypto fund all this news came after Biden announced that executive water We also had Terra (18/34)
which is a crypto that's a network behind a Luna token They're building a 10 billion dollar Bitcoin reserve fund to back its stable coin, which is important. That's the route with tether They want to look to see if it's backed by anything and they're not showing their books all these stable coins notice We've seen this across the board with a lot of stable coins not so much a tether. They're all starting to buy Bitcoin now this way They get back to their stable coin Not a coincidence. This is happening after this news Also seen Russia going to Bitcoin as a currency crash this protects them or You know their savings right people savings was sitting in a roof which lost what I don't even know how much is down now 35 50 percent whatever it is So to put that perspective if you don't understand Currencies and a lot of people don't and I understood the most when I bought At think it was 2012. I had a lot of stock in Canada I started a lot of stock in Canada and Canadian dollars and stuff and (19/34)
had a brokerage firm But they were on par with with the US in terms of the dollar where it is today, but it was like 30% now It's 30% difference which is huge So to put that in perspective say if you have using regular numbers here, you have $100,000 in a Russian bank Just from the loss in currency. It's worth $100,000 now in US and if you decide to put that $100,000 and you took it out of the roof Well and put into Bitcoin you're up easily over 30 35 percent since January 22nd that 100k is now $130,000 I'm just putting it in perspective not telling you to put all your savings at the Bitcoin But I'm putting in perspective how big that currency risk is because it adds to the value of why countries Especially outside the US who are weak and the currencies are crashing and we're seeing inflation Are gonna see money pour into Bitcoin that's a great option for them It's also an easy option where you can put into Bitcoin you can leave the country and then you could have it in another country (20/34)
You can't carry the gold. You can't carry cash that makes a lot of sense But these are no coincidences these stories By executive orders opening up the door to trillions of flow into cryptos and it's not just Bitcoin and fear in which on fire We have several names in our crypto intelligence portfolio that popped 30 to 50 percent over the past two weeks But If you're looking at this news that executive it's a game changer It's providing a future a future regulatory framework for institutions to invest in cryptos And what does that mean exactly guys it opens the door to? 250 trillion trillion guys in global assets. That's how much there is an assets in the management now These are assets that need to be invested in something if they're not those firms managing that money do not make fee They don't make they're not able to charge fees on it if they just keep it in cash It has to be into something and these firms their clients are demanding Demand and not like hey, I think it's a good (21/34)
idea. They're like I want to get into crypto I want to get into crypto this based on what Jamie Diamond just said space on our financial times tons of sources You can read them looking up on Google of their clients demanding that they want access to crypto not all their money But they want some access to it because people say you should put 5% in gold Well, you know a lot of people are saying now the new generation digital let's put 5% in Bitcoin, but we can't do that We need rules in place It's likely why Biden made this announcement since there's lots of lobbying dollars pushing for this agenda because you know If these companies can't invest in crypto through their banks and say if it's whatever say if it's it's not Goldman But use Goldman as an example and Goldman's like hey, we're not gonna invest in crypto. Just like Jamie Diamond said We're not getting a Bitcoin. We're not investing in crypto where their clients are like, well, I want crypto. I'm a freaking leaving Taking 10 (22/34)
million here 100 million there. I mean, yes, they have trillions and assets But that's gonna go to someplace to another firm that is getting into crypto. So now you're seeing by and actually say, okay Here's the framework. That's what they need If you listen to every I don't want to say important and you know low importance of so many people in this industry But if you're looking at the institutions in crypto that manage money the biggest Winklevoss twins Novogratz Stablecoin for USDT you're looking at all the big names across all the platforms all said the same thing They all said this is a watershed moment because they have no clue they can't institutions They have a fiduciary responsibility They can't come into this market and those people who are diehards and say all the institutions and we don't want a regulatory framework I'm hoping they don't go overboard I don't know if they will but I also know that for those of you who are buying Bitcoin hold it forever and think it's gonna (23/34)
go through the roof and Go to 250,000 to a million. It can't get there unless you have Institutional money trillions coming into it. It's amazing how high it's gone with retail investors But eventually there's a cap on that. There's a ceiling There's no ceiling to the amount of money when it comes to I mean you could say 250 trillion is a ceiling but those are trillions of dollars that could flow into crypto now and this is where the most innovation is taking place and Then to open up even more. I mean you look at CZ going to Dubai and Dubai gave Finance a crypto license and then you had FTX one of the largest crypto exchanges doing a great job They also see the license operating to buy as well, which will be used to trade options in cryptos So not a coincidence that other countries like holy shit. The u.s. Is for real now, so We either fall behind or we better start locking in companies even before they come out with that regulatory framework So that you know It's easy to do a great (24/34)
job going all over the place and expanding his brand who's one of the biggest names I think it's a richest crypto person a great. I love him. I mean finance got hacked early on is in our portfolio They got hacked foot. I think it's tens of millions of dollars. This guy paid out immediately Immediately had the money no bullshit, whatever. I mean that provides credibility. That's why it's pretty much the biggest and best place I mean, I just wish that more US exposure, but maybe they do now. It's gonna be a framework. We'll see but there's a clear path for trillions to flow into crypto, which is significant since This is where all the innovations taking place NFTs gives you ownership of your material on the web We don't have to rely on having your material pulled from certain platforms even Elon Musk said he wants to start, you know a competitive service to Twitter because Twitter Facebook YouTube, I mean these guys remove whatever they want to remove they control they own your content. (25/34)
You're on their platform They own it no matter what and you might not even say anything bad. Maybe it's something whatever and they'd like Sorry, we're moving it. You can't get it back. They're like, no, what do you do? You can't like sue anybody can't do anything You see those people who get removed they go on other platforms and say Facebook remove me Zuckerberg's an asshole Is it you know what they get nothing? Nothing that follows its hard to even follow them get servers up to get their own platforms And they could bitch and complain all they want, but they can't do anything other than that NFTs changes that look at the metaverse. It's massive The centralized finance play to earn gaming Dow security tokens and each of those trends alone Could go to separate trillion dollar industries over the next ten years Guys crypto is here. It's why theory is mark cap is now with 360 billion dollars if you take that mark cap, it's bigger than MasterCard. It's bigger than Bank of America It's (26/34)
why you seeing crypto names on stadiums guys like Matt Damon Larry David doing commercials the bigger influences on social media investing in these companies It's here and the growth potential in the next five to ten years is absolutely enormous Now for me we're getting lots of questions about a crypto intelligence newsletters, and I could tell you this Right now in our newsletter at ten cryptos trading below a buy up to price and some of these names are recommended over the past Six months so they they fell they bounced back, but still have enormous enormous upside potential these are names I researched thoroughly they have backing of major funds. They got good management teams. They have utility features for their token There's not a lot of bullshit But if you're believing that bitcoins will one day trade over a hundred thousand one day Let's talk about tomorrow. I'm not talking about the end of this year You're gonna take two years of voice if you believe that if that happens over (27/34)
the next few years Some of these names are likely gonna see 10x plus gains And you can't really get those gains right now in the stock market not when they come out of crazy IPO levels So a coin base even so an uber is uber above its IPO price yet, you know, it's come back And then you have the snowflakes, I mean these things have gotten annihilated Roblox IPO or you do the SPAC route which you know they all get in they all dump their stock They pump it and then these things are all getting destroyed right now, and they're out to their next back, right? They just tell you this greatest thing ever and inflate the valuations when you're fleeing valuations And you're buying these things when they're already pricing in the next 25 years of growth. There's a little upside for you Yes, you could earn 50% 100% 150% You're not gonna earn life-changing game 10x 20x 100x which we've seen in crypto and I think Going forward those games be even greater based on the names that are getting involved (28/34)
in these incredible innovative trends so seeing a lot of lots lots of interests and We do have a lot of names you could buy right now. So we open up crypto intelligence to new subscribers With a special offer for this week if you want it take it if not, don't worry about it I understand if you don't want to get to crypto, but if you are thinking about it, I suggest doing this week So we're cutting the price in half for an annual subscription which makes the offer great by itself and people say 50% Oh, I'm also gonna give away a free year this way You're in this for two years to let this trend run over the next two years. You're gonna see incredible growth You'll be able to pay half the price by two years crypto intelligence Again, it's the best offer we made on this product since we launched over three years ago But it's only good for this week If you're interested you can go to our website curves of research comm is a batter there If you're on an email list, you're gonna be getting (29/34)
email for us with that special offer again only good for this week But I want to try to get for people who have been asking about it and thinking about it the timing right now I love getting people in at the right time Because those are people that are gonna be able to benefit not only that within our portfolio We have lots of names that you could buy right now So it's not like you get the newsletter and that you can only buy the last name, right? Cuz everything's trained above the buy up to price. That's what happens Super Bowl markets There's over ten and is those are played on defi metaverse security tokens recommended security token one super speculative coin, which I think has Incredible incredible upside potential I mean, it's a pure play on cities like New York Austin, Miami who are getting into crypto But I see hundreds of cities following their lead and this is the coin that all that flows through And why do I see that people say well electricity costs on my it's much better (30/34)
in terms of tax dollars then Legalizing marijuana or legalizing gambling which really really hurts people And when you look at the electricity and the cost compared to other things that banks are using and stuff like that It really is little it's all political agenda against it But you're gonna see a lot of cities they need tax revenue They spend much more than they bring in and you have three cities are in here They're gonna just like when Colorado open up the door for marijuana. Look who followed everybody follow said, okay There's the easiest way to make tax on same with gambling easiest way to make tax dollars. This provides a much safer way for people Unless you like, you know more more people smoke marijuana and gamble which we know happens sometimes with that But this provides an easier way This is the pure play on all that growth in those cities going to crypto also a buy and open up the u.s. To institutions. I mean I've never been more bullish on this sector in my life. Okay, (31/34)
that's saying something considering the money I made in this industry over the past three four five years So when it comes to crypto you have to have money allocated to the sector. Is it risky? Yes, but when you're looking at the risk-reward and what you could generate you're not gonna see it anywhere across all industries I've been doing this for 30 years You're not gonna see that to the point where if you're risking a certain amount of capital your gains could be 10x 20x 50x which we've seen compared to risking that same amount to again get maybe 2x 4x 5x and that's in whatever industry Meme stocks or crazy stuff or biotech or whatever. So it becomes a risk-reward It's all a matter of how much you want to speculate with your money But we all should be speculating at least a certain percentage if you are It needs to be in crypto guys. That's what all the innovations taking place. This is like the internet it is here All the institutions about to rush in and the next three to five (32/34)
years Like I said, I've never been more bullish at any time in this sector in my life So if you're interested in that offer go to courage at research calm. There's a little banner there. If not, no worries I know a lot of you like no, I don't want crypto I still need to learn you can learn from this and do videos 30 minute videos get educational Stuff that you could find on there you have questions a comment email me directly to but uh, yeah It's there for you. If you want it only available for this week. So guys, that's it for me Any other questions comments just want to cover the things that I'm doing with my money Banks in crypto two things. I love okay There's training opportunities all over the place lots of trading opportunities and I get it straight back and forth went to oil agriculture uranium I get it people hold you rain usually long term, but if you're looking for the next Two years and investing says the next 18 to 24 months you have to have exposure to banks You have to (33/34)
have exposure to crypto. That's where the institution money trillions is gonna flow into And those are on trends that are not changing Anytime soon unless you expect governments to stop spending as much money as they're spending Or unless you expect the Fed to stop raising rates, which if they do we're gonna see inflation at 12 13 14 percent So they have to raise rates Those are two almost almost guarantees that are gonna happen and the two sectors gonna benefit the most cryptos and banks so that's it for me getting questions comments Frank because the research calm and See you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream. What's going on out there? It's September 1st! I'm Frank Gurgis, the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. I have a great interview coming your way with a good friend, great analyst. It's Mark Lichtenfeld. Chief Income Strategist at Oxford Club. I have several newsletters including the Oxford Income newsletter and also several trading services. So Mark and I go way way back to the Street.com days. Haven't had him on for a while. No reason why he's been crazy busy, but he is in Florida and I like seeing him all the time and just really one of the good guys in this business. Mark is also an author. He's got great books. Two of them Get Rich With Dividends, Proven Cisses for Earning Double-Dish Returns. Also, you don't (1/35)
have to drive an Uber in retirement to maintain your lifestyle without getting a job or cutting corners. So these are both award-winning books. The second one being ranked number one on Amazon's bestseller list. I always have great interviews with Mark. So if you're a new subscriber to our podcast, listen just for the past couple months or if you've been around for 10 years, you know that Mark is great. We can go anywhere and we do. We're actually even talking about bonds and all kinds of different ideas and stocks. That's also good what I know you guys like is it gives lots and lots of ideas and you're gonna get at least five or six, probably more stock picks from this interview. Let's get to it right now. Mark, click the bell. What's going on, man? Hey, Frank. Great to see you. It's been a while. Too long. Too long. We've known each other for a very long time. Street.com days where I know what your passion is. We're gonna talk about income, we're gonna talk about bonds, but I love (2/35)
talking about biotech because you always help me out incredibly in that sector. I still love biotech. I really do. There's something about it just to see how companies manage themselves and how doctors, once they get these things approved, they'll go into phase three, they turn to real companies and just the whole process. It's just I'm always intrigued by it. But I want to start with the overall economy. I mean, we're seeing the Fed in I'm going to raise rates no matter what mode, yet you're seeing the effects in a lot of different industries, especially housing, especially retailers. It's happening very quick. What are your thoughts here? I mean, it seems like income value finally in favor after 10, 12 years, which is probably right up your alley. But what are your thoughts on the economy the rest of the year and into next year? Because right now it seems like a pretty scary environment. I know a lot of people are nervous. Yeah, it does. Obviously, we're in recession now, although (3/35)
the latest numbers were, if they stay this way, a mild recession. And then you have a lot of forecasts that are pretty wide ranging. Some people think it's going to become a very deep recession. Others think it could be quite mild and maybe we even come out of it quickly. It's really difficult to say, especially when you factor in inflation, because kind of nobody really knows where that's going. And when we had sky high gas prices, which have come back down to more normal levels now. But I'm not seeing prices going down in the supermarket. I don't think most businesses are seeing their prices come down. Actually, yesterday, my wife and I were talking about gas prices and she said, so does that mean everybody's going to start lowering their prices? And I said, probably not. You know, I don't know if they can get away with it. They're certainly not going to. So I think it's a little too early to say. I would love to tell you, you know, this is where things are going. But I think with (4/35)
inflation right now and seeing where that ends up and what the Fed has to do to get it under control and what effect that's going to have. I think it's just a little too early to say where the economy is going. If you look at the stock market as a forward looking indicator, which it often is, you know, we had that huge drop from the beginning of the year. That certainly suggested recession. Then we had a pretty big bounce. So is that simply a bear market rally or was that was the bottom end? So again, a little early to say I'm leaning towards assuming that we are going to go down, whether we make a new low, I don't know. But if we go down, then that would suggest to me at least that we're not out of the woods yet as far as recession in the economy. So you have several newsletters and income newsletters, which I mentioned already before we actually got on there. Talk about income. It seems like an area that people like, oh, OK, I get it now. Right. We have a bear market. We have the Fed (5/35)
not there to pick us up. And I looked at the S&P 500 and I think it's around a 1.6% yield, which surprised me. I thought it'd be higher right now with the S&P 500 down. But I mean, it's usually won't go historically 4% dating back to the 50s, but it's usually closer to 1.2% at least over the past 10 years. Yet you're seeing a lot of stocks pay a much higher dividend than that, more than double that and really good names. What are you telling your clients, people who follow you and follow your newsletters? Because it seems like there's a lot of good names in there that are not just paying a high dividend. And I know you cover the sector for a long time. You're not just going to buy something that pays a high yield. But the underlying company, the growth behind it, it seems like there's a lot of good names out there where you have a lot of value, you have growth and also that income, which everybody craves for. Yeah. And it's interesting because a year ago, a little bit longer, it was (6/35)
really difficult to find decent yields with that growth and fair valuations because the stock market was so hot for so long. So to find a stock with even a 4% yield that wasn't, let's say a REIT or an MLP was really, really difficult. And even some of the REITs were down to 4% yield. So it was really hard. When we had that sell off, obviously that's painful when you look at your statement. But if you're a long-term investor, that shouldn't matter so much. But what's been great for income investors is now we can get into some names where you're getting 4 or 5% yields on some quality stocks. And if you're looking at the REITs and MLPs, you can get that 6%, 7%, even 8%. So it's certainly gotten a lot easier for income investors because of the bear market. And what I always tell my investors, they should be in these stocks for the long term. These are not stocks you buy to hold on for a year, collect your 4% and get out. So if you're in for the long haul, who cares where the stock market (7/35)
is today? You're planning on selling 5, 10 years from now. But in the meantime, you are collecting that income, which helps offset some of the pain a little bit. And if you're reinvesting those dividends, if you don't need to collect the income today, then you get to do that at lower prices, which you get to buy more shares, which generates even more dividends, and it really accelerates the compounding machine. So I love a bear market for the long-term investor who's investing and reinvesting in dividend stocks, just for that exact reason. It really accelerates your wealth down the road. Frank Curzio Yeah, I just pulled some research here. So I have a piece of paper, a handy piece of paper that I wrote this down. So it's the names that have a 4% yield or higher. Okay, this is from today. So Intel, Gilead, or just 4%, right? So Best Buy, Whirlpool, VF Corp. And then you have 5% yielders, right? And you think, well, what's going on underneath the hood? Maybe that... Do you think IBM, (8/35)
Newmont, which is in a great position, right? We know gold is horrible right now, but these guys produce under $1,000 an ounce just printing money right now. Even at $1,600 and $1,700, they're making money. Dow Chemical, Philip Morris, Verizon, AT&T, Kinder Morgan. I mean, these are quality names. We're not talking about garbage names here. Oh, this one pays a high dividend or whatever. We've seen the stock come down and you worry about earnings or debt default or anything like that. These are quality names paying this dividend. And you mentioned something about compounding. Why is it the younger generation, if you mentioned that, it's like a switch that just turns off? Like they're just not interested in it. When you're like, look at this 30 year, if you compound from... I mean, I know 30 years is a long time, but when we get to our age, you see how fast it happens? And I'm like, man, if you're 20 years old, just put away a hundred bucks here. And why is it that they're so turned off? (9/35)
Is it the Bitcoin generation, the crypto generation, I want to get rich tomorrow because, man, I wish I knew what they did when I was that age. And we're trying to explain it to them, but they don't want to listen. Yeah, I think people do want to get rich quickly. I'm going to sound like an old man here, but I think that generation has a shorter attention span due to all the technology they consume and a 24 hour news cycle. You know, everything is just much faster in their lives than it was with us. So I was unbelievably lucky that when I was 21 years old, I read about compounding and read about the effects and started putting money away. When I was 21 years old, I maxed out my IRA at that point, which was $2,000 a year because I had heard just some crazy statistics about if you invested from 21 to 31 and stopped, you would have more money at 65 than if you started at 31 and invested all the way to 65. Great stat. You know, the same amount of money every year. So I continued to invest (10/35)
past 31, but that made a major impact on me. And I just think that, you know, the younger generation, maybe they don't think about 50 and 60 years old and that it could ever happen. And, you know, to be honest, when I was 21 years old, I really wasn't that concerned about beating 60 and retiring someday. I was just getting started. But somewhere in the back of my mind, I knew that was out there and I should probably do this because I looked at the numbers and numbers have always made sense to me, you know, when it's just kind of out there in black and white, then so that's what I started doing. And as far as getting younger people involved, I think one of the problems they don't really teach it in school. So they don't teach about the dangers of compounding with credit cards and they don't teach about the benefits of compounding. So if they're not getting it anywhere, but everything else that they're hearing is, you know, buying AMC options on Reddit and, you know, another kind of, you (11/35)
know, get rich quick schemes or strategies. You know, I can see why it's boring to put a few thousand dollars away a year in Intel and, you know, JP Morgan and wait for 20, 30 years. I get it. It's not they shouldn't be doing it, but I get it. Yeah, yeah, I know I get it too. I mean, at really 25, I was not taking life seriously and I was having a lot of fun. That's why when I go to conferences or speak conferences and I see young people there come up to me, I'm like, what are you doing here? You should be drinking, getting drunk, having fun, going to clubs right now. It's like, yeah, I'm always so impressed. I'm like, wow, which is pretty cool. But one of the things that you're doing and you've been doing is getting into bonds. And that seems like a very, very hard sell for individuals because you're not just and I've done the research, I looked some of the stuff that you do and you say, listen, don't buy a fund, which you get close end funds, mutual funds and a bond exposure. You (12/35)
talk about individual bonds. It makes all sense in the world. I know exactly why you're doing it. But how difficult is that to get people to buy this? Because, you know, again, I would think that's catered to someone that may be looking for that income, retirement, you know, older. And just, you know, I don't know if there's too much of a learning curve of buying it where it's pretty easy to buy, but just, you know, people have to learn a little bit, I could pay the buy in a simple stock. But how do you get people interested in that? And what do you see in the bond market? Because what we saw is, you know, the bond market get crushed. Right. So, you know, how are you talking about it, mentioning it? Because there's an area that seems, you know, ripe to do a lot better. But for individual investors, I feel like it's a hard sell. Surprisingly, it isn't when they understand the very basic concept. So one of the things, as you mentioned, that I say, stay away from bond funds and bond ETFs, (13/35)
because they will go down when interest rates rise. And I certainly expect interest rates to continue to rise. With an individual bond, you buy an individual bond, the price may go down while you own it, if interest rates rise. But at maturity, you're going to get your money back or you get the par value, which is $1,000 per bond in almost all cases. So if you buy a bond at $1,000 or maybe you buy it at a slight discount, $950, it doesn't matter if tomorrow the bond is worth $90. Your plan is to hold it until maturity. Now, if it goes up and we can take a profit, we certainly will. But that's not the plan. The plan is to hold it until maturity. As a result, also, we're not buying long-term bonds. You know, I'm trying to stay $2,026 in earlier maturities. I want to keep them fairly short. So the reason that the bond funds and ETFs will lose money is because when you go to sell one of those securities, meaning that the fund or the ETF, the price that you're going to get is the value of (14/35)
the assets. And if the bonds have fallen in price, then the value of the ETF will go down, and that's the price you'll get. So you'll lose money if those prices go down. With the individual bond, again, you're only planning to hold it to maturity. You don't care. You're not selling when the price is down. And if you think you might have to, you shouldn't buy the bond. If you're buying a three-year bond and you think you need the money in a year, don't do it. Only buy the bond that you plan to hold until maturity. So once people understand that concept, it's not a particularly difficult sell because they do see that it's terrific income. You can get really high-quality bonds now paying 3, 4 percent, and if you go down a little bit less in the credit rankings, then you're getting 5, 6 percent, maybe even more. And the thing is, even when you go to the lower credit bonds, the overwhelming majority of bonds pay and do exactly what they're expected to. The long-term default rate for junk (15/35)
bonds is 4 percent, and that is very much concentrated in the very lowest-rated bonds. So you can buy a bond, say a BB bond, which is not particularly high. It's not at the floor either. Maybe get a 6 percent yield or maybe even higher, and you can feel pretty darn competent that you're going to get your money back at the end of maturity. So when people kind of get that and they also get that it doesn't matter what the stock market does, you're going to get your money back. I'm writing an article now for the Oxford Income Letter where we showed JP Morgan is down, I think it was about a third over the past year, whereas its bonds have fallen, I want to say, roughly 10 percent. Again, we don't care because we're going to hold the bond to maturity, but even then, when stocks tank, bonds are a nice place to be because you're not getting hit as hard when markets are crashing. I know. Usually that's the case. I know bonds have really fell off tremendously this year and even before that. But (16/35)
what is your methodology where you talked about BB, talk about investment grade, what's your methodology? Because you have to look under the hood for your investors to see if these guys generate. Is it just cash flow? Is it earnings, the history of earnings? Again, you have a lot of rating services that do a lot of the work for you and can rate these. But also, there's people that can look even further under the hood and say, okay, these guys should be investment graded or not, and that's where you're going to pay a higher yield and get a better price on your bond. But what's some of the methodology that you use that you look for to really recommend a bond? Sure. I don't consider the rating agencies' ratings too much because, don't forget, these are the same guys that were rating all those mortgage securities AAA when they were worthless. So what I look for as far as ratings is to see if something's maybe undervalued. So if I'm looking at a BB bond and the yield is too low, then I'll (17/35)
say, well, we're not getting paid enough for that level of risk and vice versa. We're getting paid very handsomely for this level of risk based on what the market thinks. So yeah, what I look for cash flow is of the utmost importance, very similar to what I look for in dividends, a balance sheet. I want to know that there is some cash that they're not so heavily in debt that they can't make their interest payments. And most importantly, or I should say as importantly, I want to see where the bond that I'm interested in falls as far as their maturity schedule. So if I'm looking at a 2024 bond, but they have a ton of bonds maturing in 23, and that means they're going to probably have to raise more money, sell more bonds to pay off the 24s, I'm not interested. I want to be first in line for that and let the bond investors behind me a few years down the road worry about how they're going to get paid. So I really try to be kind of at the head of the line or if I can't be the first maturity, (18/35)
then I want to know that there's not a large maturity ahead of me so that there's not a concern about the bonds getting repaid. And that being said, if a bond is rated fairly high, theoretically, they shouldn't have a problem raising money if they have to under somewhat normal circumstance. I mean, if it's 2008 again, then that might be a little different. But yeah, so basically, I want to see very solid financials and I want to see that the bonds are not going to have a problem getting repaid. And again, the overwhelming majority, it's never a problem. Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. So getting back to the income side, which you can throw bonds in there too, what people love when you're on is you share some of your ideas. What are some of your ideas out there for, I guess, stocks? Let's go with stocks. I mean, are you looking at yield specifically? Do you look under the hood to see which ones are growing? Obviously, with energy, you're still getting 3, 3.5% dividends with Exxon, (19/35)
Chevron, the biggest, right? And they seem like the strongest in terms of earnings power going forward right now. And I know oil has come down, but still it's very, very strong compared to a year ago. So what are some ideas that you're sharing? If you can, nothing that you give away to people who are paying for your newsletter, but what are some of the areas or maybe some individual things that you're looking at that pay it out? Nice income that people could buy. Yeah, well, so I do love energy. We've held Chevron forever in the portfolio. Some of the midstream companies also I've been a fan of for a long time and continue to be. I mean, it's always described as just a toll booth for oil and gas. And I love the fact that they don't go through the boom and bust cycles the way some of the oil producers do. And I also like some of the alternative energy companies, a company like NextEra Energy Partners, which is one of the leading solar and wind companies in the country. It's a subsidiary (20/35)
of NextEra Energy, which is an energy powerhouse, utility powerhouse right here in Florida, as you know. And they pay a very solid dividend yield. Plus, it is tax deferred because it is a partnership. So it is a return of capital. So you don't pay any taxes on the dividend in the year it's received. It reduces your cost and eventually down the road when you sell it, you'll pay tax on a larger capital gain. But all those years that you're collecting the dividend, there's pretty much no taxes on a regular year. So I love that, especially as we're seeing not just more legislation geared towards that, but a lot of it does make economic sense, especially if oil prices continue to go higher. There's just going to be more solar and wind projects happening. And you have a company like NextEra Energy. This is not a bunch of granola eating, kumbaya singing, hippies setting up a windmill in a field. I mean, these are very serious conservative business people. So if they're investing heavily in (21/35)
this, then there's money to be made here. And then also, of course, health care. Any of the sectors that should thrive and survive recession. So health care, consumer staples, anything like that. I really want to be focused on those companies that if we do hit a rough patch for the next year or so, that these companies will be able to continue to grow their revenues, grow their cash flow and pay that dividend. No, it makes a lot of sense. So one of the areas that I don't think you cover anymore at Oxford is biotech. And I remember, is it Adam Borstein? Yeah. I don't know if he's still at the street or not, but he's- Yeah, he's with Stat News. He became very big at the time, but a few years ago, I haven't really followed him too much. But I know you used to cover biotech. You used to go to the annual JP Morgan health care conference. You used to give me updates and everything. I know it's got to be a passion still. Are you looking at biotech? Because biotech, when you look at that (22/35)
industry and people... It topped at February, right? I mean, that's when they hit the top, which was well before the rest of the market. And then you saw this just massive collapse. And we'll talk about February 2021. I felt like the leveraging in this industry was incredible because some of these names were trading down 80, 90%. I mean, these are good names. These were names that would generate revenue, right? And I was like, just the massive leveraging taking place, which is something that I think is prime for guys like you. Are you still following that industry? Do you have any names? Because I always know that that was really a passion for yours. Yeah, so I still do follow it. I don't have the biotech newsletter anymore. So I'm not following it as much on a day to day basis. And when I was doing that, I was really focused on companies that would have a catalyst and let's say, generally within six months. And that was roughly how long I was planning on holding a stock for. Sometimes (23/35)
it was longer, sometimes it was less. These days I'm doing much more active trading. So it's not so much focused on a catalyst. Basically, if the sector is rising, I find some names that look exciting. But that being said, one of my favorite stocks is Ligand, LGND. Sorry, LGND is the symbol. And what I like about them is they are... Royalties, right? Yeah, and they're not focused on getting that clinical trial data to come in strong or that one FDA approval that's going to make or break the company. They have well over 100 different compounds. Some there are still in development, some are licensed to other companies that are on the market and where the big pharmas are developing them. So when that happens, the risk is off for Ligand. And basically when something positive happens, like a strong clinical trial, they'll usually get a milestone payment. And when it hits the market, they just sit back and collect the royalties. So really, their business model is find these molecules, find (24/35)
these compounds, develop them at very, very early stages, and then license them out, let somebody else take on all the risk. And then they just sit back and collect the money. And so I really like that model because it's not so boom and bust like it is for some biotechs. You saw Moderna did nothing for years. I mean, they couldn't get anything across the goal line. And then suddenly, COVID happened and they're one of the biggest names in biotech. So it's nice not to just be staring at your computer screen on the day that you know that an FDA approval is coming out, just blue, just hoping that something positive happens because you know the stock could move 50% either up or down, depending on the news. So those are the kinds of things I'm looking at these days. Frank Curzio Yeah, the volatility in that you can look any day, I mean, go to Finviz free sites, and you'll see the winners and losers smoke at you'll always see those like crazy. They just they're on the losers list that the (25/35)
winners list of 50% 100, 200% down 67. It is a crazy market. And now I see it. So I want to get to the last thing here because one of the things I love, love is that you are a ring announcer. And you've done it here where I live once and this is a while ago. So I saw firsthand. And then I'm sure you can go and see different videos of it. Are you still doing that? I mean, you know, boxing is MMA, because, man, I love watching it. And that is really seriously, I would quit everything you do and do that. You're amazing. And everybody's got to see you on YouTube. Whenever I see that, I'm like, Whoa, this guy's great. Like I didn't expect them like this guy's awesome. It's really cool. Yeah, it's, you know, it's kind of a very bizarre side hustle that I started doing a long time ago. And I've been a boxing fan since I'm 12 years old. So it is the most fun thing you could possibly imagine to be standing in the center of the rain, getting the scorecard first telling everybody, you know, who (26/35)
won the fight and getting to talk to the boxers and you know, some of the some of the I get to meet some of the guys that, you know, I grew up watching. That's great. So it is it is so much fun. Yeah, I continue to do it. I'm working for a promoter called Pro Box promotions. They have a great app. It's 18 bucks a year and you get all their fights and they have a lot of up and coming fights and a couple of world title fights here and there. And they put on a great show. So it's so much fun. I absolutely love it. And every time the phone rings to do it, I can't wait to get to when when's your next one? The next one is early October. You gotta let me know. I gotta tweet it out. Everybody's gonna watch it. I'll let you know. In Florida, so maybe you can come by. All right. Definitely. Definitely. So it can't be that far from you, right? Aren't you still far by Palm Beach? Or is it Delray? Yeah, yeah, I'm Delray and this this fight is near Tampa. So not terribly far. No, not too far. Not (27/35)
too far. Well, Mark, listen, it's been too long. I'm gonna have you on a lot more. I know my guests love you because you always tell her how it is and I love you. And you always share lots and lots of ideas. So I miss you, man. Got to talk a little bit more. Got to see each other face to face kiss in person because it has been too long. But I really appreciate you coming on and hopefully come on again soon. Yeah, my pleasure. And if I can just do a quick shameless plug, if anybody. No, it's not shameless. I was just gonna say before I go, if someone wants to learn more about you, and it's not just the Oxford Club, but there's other places as well. Go ahead. Yeah. So if you want to learn especially more about the bonds and what we were talking about, you can go to stock quitters one, the number one stock quitters one. Dot com or go to Oxford Club.com. You can. There's plenty of stuff on me there. So let me get this straight. It's stock quitters one.com, which I'm definitely promoting (28/35)
this right now. Right. And then which I'm not getting paid for. But you actually recommend stocks in your income newsletter. Yes. Yes. The whole idea behind stock quitters is for people that can't handle the volatility, the kind that we've been seeing. And whether they just can't sleep at night and they're just kind of done with the market. And I know plenty of people have had that experience in the last few months. Or perhaps they're approaching a milestone. Like for me, both of my kids are in college right now. So as we've gotten closer to them going to college, I scaled back in their 529. I took money out of stocks and stock funds and put it into fixed income and cash because I couldn't have the exposure to stocks in that particular account. So for part of my finances, I was a stock quitter for sure. No, it definitely makes sense. So listen, Mark, thanks again for coming on in. I'll talk to you soon. Okay. Thanks for having me. Thanks. Great stuff from Mark. He's one of the great (29/35)
guys in our industry. Great family. Works his ass off. Passionate. And love interviewing him. Just someone that I've known. Wow. I would say, oof, I'm getting old. I don't even want to say. Probably about 15 years. So, yeah, it's good to see guys around that long. When you're around that long in any industry, it means you're good at what you do. He does a great job for Oxford. Oxford is a division of Agor. I have a lot of respect for those guys over there. They've been around for a long time. Very good analyst there. Alex Green's another one I respect. Julia, I believe, still runs a show there whose grades been around for a long time. And, yeah, if you get a chance, hey, go see what Mark does. I don't get paid for any of his products at all. I just forgot. Usually I always give my guys a chance, everyone I'm interviewing, a chance to say, hey, someone wants to find out more information, here's how they can do it. So hopefully go there and take a look at it again. I don't get paid for (30/35)
anything. You guys let me know. So if you subscribe to his service, it's good. Let me know. If it's not so good, always let me know. I'm not going to put bad guys in front of you. I never do that. I always want to have guys that have great ideas, original ideas, things that no one else is talking about. I can tell you income is in favor. I know people say, well, income is boring and bonds are boring. Well, it's not so boring when you're sitting in risky stocks and they're down 70, 80%. So there's a time to get aggressive. There's time to be conservative. It's like a game of chess. There's times with tax, time to ease back a little bit and play safe. And now's the time to play safe. I mean, you heard me in the podcast. You just got to be careful if the Fed overshoots here. It's very, very dangerous. It's going to create a very, very terrible environment. Otherwise, I ran down a list of names. And that list of names are solid names. Yeah, Intel kind of sucks lately, and yes, they're (31/35)
behind the curve. But the stocks reflecting that, Gilead, Best Buy, VF Corp, Whirlpool, those are solid names, paying 4% yields. 5% of IBMs, the Newmonts, Dow Chemical, Philip Morris, Verizon, AT&T, Kinder Morgan's. I mean, those are some really, really good names where it's not, hey, let me just sit back and boring. Some of those names have a lot of growth potential as well. So it's not just sitting back in those dividends, not how Warren Buffett made a fortune, even though books have been written about that and compounding. No. He made a fortune because he bought insurance companies and leveraged those pools of money times 10, 20 times, whatever it was. And that's how he inflated those returns. He didn't just buy Wells Fargo and Coca-Cola and hold and collect the dividends and say, look what I did. No. There's a lot more than that. But the point is that you have to pick good stocks. You just can't pick decent names with good yield that aren't going to grow. And there's a lot of names (32/35)
on that list that I just ran off on bulldozers. 4%, 5% yield is really, really great in a market like this. And some of them are going to provide safety when the Fed is a little confused right now. We don't know what they're going to do. They say what they're going to do. Hopefully they don't because they said what they're going to do last two years, Jackson Hole, and they completely didn't about face. So let's see what happens to the market going forward. But hopefully you enjoyed that interview, especially given the current times. I certainly enjoyed it. But again, there's podcasts about you, not about me. Let me know what you thought. FrankCursleyResearch.com. That's Frank at Cursley Research. That's it for me. Again, any questions, send me an email. I'm here for you. Use it as a resource. I like to hear from you. People email me all over the world with great, great stuff. Just what's going on in their neck of the woods. It gives me a good perception. It allows me to recommend (33/35)
great, great stocks and find new ideas. So this podcast, I know you listen to it and it's for free, but hey, I learn as much from you guys as you learn from me. So it's really cool. The network is getting bigger and bigger and bigger every single month, it feels like. And I just want to thank you guys for listening, supporting me. It's really, really cool. I always say you guys are crazy. I don't know why you listen to me. But hey, if I could be myself and you guys like it, then I'm going to keep doing this. It's 15 years and going and I got to be honest with you, I still love it because of the people like you I meet and it's really, really cool. So again, feel free to email me. If you are a subscriber to any of our paid services, you're going to get a Frankly Speaking podcast tomorrow, which is cool. If not, then too bad. I'll see you guys next week. Take care. Host and guest should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your (34/35)
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – It's going out there. It's November 4th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. I have a great interview for you right now. This is my buddy, Luke Downey. So if you're a subscriber or have gone to our CurzioResearch.com website to view all of our free content, past podcasts, you should be familiar with Luke. There's a ton of free content for us. Also, there's lots of videos, which I love because this helps educate investors. We like them so much that we hired him to write a newsletter for us, which is called Big Money Report. And a lot of you who are subscribers to the product are doing very well. This is a product that you'll see a lot of cool growth names in (1/35)
that many investors that I realize over my career are afraid to buy or stay away from, mostly due to valuation. But as you know, these are the names that are driving the market higher over the past 10 years. Luke doesn't buy these names blindly. As a system he took years to build that helps people like you, everyday investors, invest not after the big money, which is the institutions and the major funds, but right alongside it. So thus far, this product has been doing incredibly well. Luke is doing an incredible job, starting to get lots of fans. I love the work you do. Luke, enough, right? Enough of the compliments, buddy. Let's bring you in. How's everything going? Frank, everything's going great. I love that little intro. That was great, man. Thanks. No, I appreciate it. I mean it. The work that you do in the performance of the newsletter is fantastic. And I want to start here, right? Because you did this on September 20th. I've seen your market calls. A lot of people might say, (2/35)
well, I subscribe to the newsletter. I like to get individual ideas. I love your market calls because they've been very, very good. Late September, you said, and if you put yourself back in late December, I know right now, I think it's 14 out of 15 days, the S&P going up. Everything's going higher, everybody's bullish. But back then, the market came down, you saw the bears come out. They were nervous saying, it could come down further, rates are going higher. You said based on history, look, this is a good time to buy. You said buy the, I think it was the ARK Internet Fund and also the Russell, which is a way to play this move higher that you saw coming. Maybe a couple days early, but if you look at that performance since then, it's double what the S&P is, both of those plays. How do you see these market moves and what are some of the indicators you use? Because some people might be like, well, he's just guessing, but the sophistication and how much goes into your system and how much (3/35)
you've worked in the hours is incredible. And it's been really spot on many, many times and people can go back and see it in their research curves and research. How do you do it? Frank, this is great. This is a good segue to talk about what I'm doing every single day. So if you're not familiar with what I do with Curzio, I just follow the big money and that's what I learned to do while trading on these Wall Street trading desks. One thing I noticed was that a lot of the smart hedge funds, money managers, pension funds, they would be attracted to the same type of stocks and they would buy them day after day after day and sometimes for over a month. And what I noticed was whichever direction they were going, the stock tended to follow. So if they were buying a stock, a growth stock, a group of stocks, a basket of stocks, they would tend to go up. And that is really what I do every single day. So in the morning I wake up, I get my coffee, the kids are still asleep, it's pitch black, and (4/35)
I'm looking through a lot of data. And the data that we look at, it's a little sophisticated, but I'm able to pick out patterns that are happening just by looking at the price action and the volumes, which is indicative of where the institutions are moving. So if we rewind the tape, we go back to September, remember it was doom and gloom. People were not getting bullish. But what I started to notice, Frank, was you look in the data, there were just a few little high growth stocks that started to get bought. And listen, I've been doing this for a number of years. And there's a couple of them that start to lead usually, and specifically it happens out of nowhere, usually you see more of those high quality growth stocks that tend to follow. And really what's happening behind the scenes, what I used to do was anytime you start to see these growth names start to rip higher, 10%, 5%, 20%, they get a buy signal. There's a bunch of portfolio managers that are short those stocks, right? And so (5/35)
they have to start covering, and then it starts this stampede. And then before you know it, the bears are gone and then everybody's like, wow, there's a lot of undervalued stocks. And then they start piling in. And that's really what prefaced that piece that we wrote, which is free. If you're not consuming the free Curzio research pieces, you're missing out. And that's why I was telling everybody, get your rally hats on. And yeah, it was a couple of days early, but look where we are now. Frank Curzio Yeah, no, it is a great call. And for me, I've always realized the mistake is when I saw Apple trading at 60, 70 times forward earnings, Netflix at 120 times forward earnings. Me personally, I stayed away from that. And I'm a perfectionist where I'm getting better. I try to get better every single day. And people are like, wow, you're good at stock picking. It's every day you have to be able to adapt and learn. For me, I always look back and said, why am I missing these names? Why didn't I (6/35)
see the valuation? Where now, if you look at Microsoft, they're trading at a premium to the overall market. But yeah, these companies fit into their valuation because of their total addressable market. How did you come up with this system to follow some of these names? Because you can go back, I won't even go back before the credit crisis, but since then, the move in growth compared to value and how these names and how you get that premium, you get that massive premium for growth. And if these guys execute along the way, that's where you see the Nvidia's and all these crazy stocks and a lot of these things that you've known in the past. I mean, how'd you figure this out? Because it seems for this conversation has to be explaining investors of why you need to be investing in these things, even though they're expensive. And that's not an easy conversation. How do you have that conversation with regular investors? Definitely. So, you know, when I started out investing, I started out like (7/35)
a lot of other people, right? They probably started day trading. They probably started messing around with penny stocks. I did that as well. And, you know, I got my butt kicked, right? And then along the way, I started to realize that who do I want to be as an investor? Okay. Do I want to be hot and heavy, sweating every day? You know, is it going up? Is it going down? I always knew that the big stocks, right? The big winning stocks, they tend to just go up year after year. And it's just a handful of these stocks, right? You know, you can look back at, you know, Walmart, Coca-Cola, you know, these used to be growth stocks. You know, Home Depot used to be a crazy growth stock. This isn't, you know, now it's a run of the mill. They trade like staples. But when I got on these Wall Street trading desks, everything started to change for me because prior to seeing how these institutions trade and me trading on behalf of them, I began to realize that, you know, the lines on these charts are (8/35)
not random. And in fact, typically it's the order flow of these institutions that are determining what these stock is doing every single day. So I knew this because I was handling the workflow. Basically, what we were buying is I dictated the price for that day. And so then I started to think, OK, well, big money is very important, right? We need to be on the same side of that because they all move in packs, whether it's up or down. And then I began to look back in history and say, well, what were some of the qualities of some of the greatest stocks of all time had? And I could narrow it down to three things. One is they had great earnings or revenue growth, right? So their business was expanding every single year. And then the best ones tend to have a lot of profits, right? They tend to make a lot of money. So if you marry that together with the big money, because the other thing that all the great stocks have is smart investors are buying them along the way. Right. So those are the (9/35)
three, you know, traits that you can pretty much guarantee that a great stock is going to have looking back. Right. And so I came up with a way to rank these stocks, give them a numerical score ranked from one to 100, if you will. And the highest scoring stocks means that they have big money. That means that they are great growth stocks. That means they have great fundamentals, great technicals. And then the cherry on top, which I think makes me a little bit unique, is I actually listen to the earnings calls. I listen to the guidance and I put myself in the position of a portfolio manager. I try to sit and think, OK, what is the positioning of this stock? Right. And then where do I think this stock is potentially going in the years to come? So and I'll use one example. You know, seven years ago, I was sitting there and I was like, man, Netflix just seems like an amazing company. Right. And I could see the big money was there. Fundamentals were there. I literally only bought 10 shares. (10/35)
And on the same day, I bought 10 shares of Tesla. And, you know, now seven years later, just talking about Tesla, a twenty three hundred and fifty dollar investment is now, I believe, worth something like sixty thousand dollars. So you don't have to have big money to find these great growth stocks. Right. And Netflix was, you know, a tin bagger as well. So that's what we're trying to do. That's what I love to do. And it's it's been a great ride. And speaking of all the growth that's going on now, I think the whole world is transforming in terms of technology. Everything is moving to this technological advancements. And, you know, you can see that everybody is paying a subscription for just about everything they do in life. And they're just these companies that dominate their lane and the big money is all over it. So let's get along for the ride. Now, and this is great stuff. This is why I want to write a newsletter for us. So I'm on the website now and paid subscription. I'm not going (11/35)
to show again and I can give away all your picks here. But it's the big money report. And guys, this newsletter we made very affordable. It's one hundred dollars under one hundred dollars for the entire year. Just because, you know, you want to see I want you to see, you know, Luke's work here and and and understand it. Right. Because it's difficult because people don't know anyone. I don't want everyone out there that markets. They say, you know, my performance is this and the greatest trade in the world. So I said, you know, I want people to really see this. And these are some of the stocks I'm talking about. Only look, you have only a couple of losers in the portfolio, just like everybody else has loses in a portfolio. Most of these are winners. But companies like in mode. I mean, that's not on anyone's radar. A Vantor. You have, you know, Ulta Beauty here, but Dynatrace. OK, these are up. These are up. You know, these are holds. Right. So I'm not giving away anything for free. But (12/35)
these are companies that that don't hit people's radars. And one of those names is Crocs, which, by the way, it's funny story when Crocs because Crocs does such an up and down ride. Now it's absolutely, you know, going gangbusters and, you know, you're up a ton in it. One of your biggest winners. But I was with Jim Cramer hanging out when I worked for him and I just got matters on my honeymoon. I went to Hawaii and this stock just crashed. So I think it was 2007. And I remember just texting him from my honeymoon. I said, the only thing I was going to say, I said, listen, Crocs, everybody is wearing them. Everybody owns them here. Everybody loves them. It's just like I can't believe. But anyway, this is a name that has gone incredibly higher. Again, a lot of these names are off people's radars, but it just goes to show you that this is where the growth is and you have to be invested in growth. You have to be willing to adapt value. Okay, I get it. You see these value stocks and you like (13/35)
to buy them. People like to buy them. But this is where these companies receive huge premiums. But just to show you some of those names, I mean, how do you come up with those names? What's the screening process not giving away your secret sauce? But, you know, talk about that, because people might be like, oh, he's just pulling out some growth names. There's tons of growth names that are not in here. And there's others that are. So what separates some, again, looking at those numbers, listen to conference calls you said. But what are some of the big differences in investing in where you might have avoided Zillow, which got crushed out of nowhere compared to some of these other names that made the portfolio? Yeah, so it's a pretty multi-pronged approach. First of all, everything is going to start with how the stock is trading. And I know that it's hard to explain that, but we built a mechanized process to basically be a net that we cast out every single day. We look for all of the (14/35)
stocks that are getting bought and sold. And this is basically just data analysis. We are assuming that this is what's happening. And there are a handful of stocks that come on the radar. So I group those by what's getting bought. Then there is a score that is attached to them. And the highest ranked stocks, the ones that are scoring really well in fundamentals, they're scoring really well in technicals. They all float to the top. And then what's really interesting is, you know, there's a lot of new stocks that came along this year, but very few of them are going to score really high, right? So we're able to weed out a lot of the names that just don't look that good on paper. They don't have a long trading history. And so day after day, I start to see the same stocks getting bought. So that tells me there's probably an institution behind that, right? Because a lot of these newer stocks, these smaller stocks, you're a big institution. You can't get in these things in one day, right? (15/35)
You're too big. So you have to break it up over multiple days. So that's where it comes on my radar. And then I go and do some due diligence. I actually look up the company, try to understand their business, try to figure out how big is their addressable market. And then from there, I kind of put myself into a portfolio manager's shoes and I asked myself, is this growth rate priced in? Yes or no. And is Wall Street behind the ball? And if I can say yes, you know, that Wall Street is probably behind the ball, then that's where we go smack dab into these. And just like you said, there's a lot of these names that are not on people's radar, right? I'm on social media. I don't have a big following or anything, but I can see the names that are trending. A lot of these names are not trending. And that is a good thing, right? Because no one wants to be on the front page with some of these stocks and you're starting to see, when the juice starts to flow into these names, right? It's some pretty (16/35)
big moves. No, it is incredible. And when I'm looking at your subscription page again, because this is very simple, right? So we've provided a big money report of Curzio Research, which you're the editor on. And this is like simple buys, right? So this is a simple strategy. This is what you would buy. You're going to see lots of winners, a couple of losers in the portfolio doing extremely well. And when I look at another company, again, I'm only giving away a hold here, is something that you recommend like a little over a month ago, which is Mimecast. And that's up 17%. Now, this is great for average investors, but we are now going to launch another product, Big Money Trader, which is kind of, you know, big money report on steroids, where you're going to provide option strategies, where you see this, where you can take advantage right away. And for example, what I'm seeing some of these gains, if you did use the option strategy that you, and very, very simple, right? We'll break that (17/35)
down a second. I mean, the gains on these would be accelerated. I mean, you know, just tremendously higher. Talk about that, because this is a product I'm looking forward to. You're an option specialist. Options are red hot right now. It's never been more busy options. You've seen that across every exchanges with the contracts trading as to every place. It's unbelievable how many people are in options now, compared to just like two, three years ago. I mean, it's a big deal. And now bringing this to this portfolio to accelerate the gains on some of these things is pretty incredible. And you also have a system in place where, you know, you have a way to reduce some of that risk, right? So why don't you explain that? Because that's a product we're launching this month, which we're very excited about. Real quick, if you're a Curzio One investor, which is our premium membership, you're getting beta versions of this right now, which is cool. So now this is going to officially launch this (18/35)
month. But talk about that new product and how it's different from this and the options strategies, because to me, that's really, really exciting. And that's what a lot of people want. They want to maximize their gains when they're right. And I think that's what this newsletter is going to do. Definitely. So with Big Money Report, the first thing to know is that it's more of a longer term strategy, right? I'm literally trying to pick up on some big things that are happening with some great growth stocks. When it comes to Big Money Trader, and I'll be honest, I'm not the biggest trader in the world, but we're going to use the same type of process that we use with Big Money Report. But we're going to kickstart it a little bit, if you will. And so to do that, you know, some stocks aren't going to be going up in a straight line. Sometimes they're going to come under pressure. Sometimes they are going to come out of favor. And so we are going to look for some really strong risk reward is (19/35)
very positive in our favor option setups for those types of stocks. So again, we're going to be looking at high quality stocks. These are going to be the names that we love that we think are going to be the, you know, the next big winner, but we'll be able to take advantage of that with options. And what's really great about that is options allow you options, you know? And so one of my favorite strategies that I love to do is to sell a downside put and buy an upside call. And that's basically called a risk reversal, right? So it's like a synthetic long stock. And I know, you know, some people may not have done that, but what it's going to allow you to do is like, let's just say it's a great stock. It comes down. It was $70 before. Now it fell to 50. You know, we might be looking to sell a 45 strike put to buy the 60 strike call. And what that's going to allow us to do is what I would say heads you win and tails you win, right? So if the stock blasts higher, we're going to participate (20/35)
with that call in the upside. And if the stock falls lower, well, you'll have that obligation to buy the stock in this example at 45. So you're buying the stock lower than where it is already, right? We're talking about a great stock that's already fallen and we're going to be looking for setups where we can buy it lower. But if we're wrong, it doesn't go lower, it goes higher. We participate to the upside. And that is a great risk reward strategy that I've done for years. And that's one of the main themes that we'll be looking for in the big money trader. Yeah. It seems like even when you're looking at that risk, you know, even say, if that falls tremendously below your price, you're still saving money compared to if you bought it at the actual price instead of using the strategy, right? That's exactly right. And that is the worst case scenario, right? That is the worst case scenario. So it's not just the risk reversal option strategies. You're going to be buying calls as well. And (21/35)
also just buying some of these names that you see that are mispriced, right? That come up in your system that you need to get out really, really quick. And again, it's more, you know, we call it big money trader, but, you know, more to take advantage of quick movements in stocks and things like that. But, you know, it's not just options. It's also, you're going to be buying regular stocks to take advantage of, you know, short-term movements as well, right? Totally. So, you know, there might be people out there that don't want to sell a put and buy a call, right? Listen, if you're not comfortable with that, the other strategy that we're going to be doing is just buying straight calls, right? So if a stock falls or it has, you know, it's breaking out to a level, the options look really nice. They look cheap relative to history. We might just buy a call, right? Participate on the upside, right? That's going to allow you to leverage, you know, long exposure to the stock. And then also, you (22/35)
know, sometimes option market just doesn't make sense. So we'll just go in and we'll buy the stock just like we do in Big Money Report. But what's really interesting is we're going to be doing two of these trades a month, I believe, compared to one a month for Big Money Report. So, you know, there's going to be a lot more stocks coming on the radar with Big Money Trader just because of the frequency. Yeah. And it's going to sound funny when I say this, but I'm like, so, and this is how it's going to be, right? I mean, that's not a line for me. And I think you get a test to this. Whenever I bring someone on to write newsletters, I want them to write about what they want to write about, what they're comfortable about, what they're great at doing. And that's not me saying, hey, you know what? Look, you should do this. You should do that. I mean, it's the independence where you're like, hey, you could disagree with even some of the things I'm saying in my newsletter or agree with them, (23/35)
whatever. But I learn about this stuff too, saying, okay, so what else is going to be included? It's not just a line. So what else is going to be included? That for me, I'm curious of what else is going to be included because I want you to have that independence and just, I like unleashing talent and what you're great at. So to see this product coming out, I'm very excited because I know that if we had those options strategies on top of the Big Money report, just off of those picks since February, since you started that newsletter, I mean, you would see accelerated returns. So I think a lot of people are going to be excited about this. What about the educational portion? Because you are going to be doing some videos. I am setting up a text service for this because it's a trading newsletter. It's not going to be for every service. We're trying to get that out as quick as possible. This way you could send texts right away, which I know, Luke, that you're pretty happy about. Behind the (24/35)
scenes, there is a process. It's a publishing process where it has to get edited and go out and it takes a little time. We know what options, every second counts. But what else do they get? So, I mean, you have a guy there showing this and I love the video component. Talk about that a little bit, because I could tell when you're doing your videos that you really love it and you come across genuine. You come across like you like it and you're educating and you care and it's all, you see that in a video. And sometimes you don't see that in writing. Some people are great writers. You can see it, but just the video component, it seems like you're having fun with that. And that's going to be a component of this as well, right? Yeah. So the videos are really interesting. So just so everyone knows behind the scenes, whenever you write a piece, right? You're going to be posting this to anywhere, right? Curzio Research. There's a team of people that are editing it, making sure that it actually (25/35)
flows and all of that. Well, when it comes to video, we have this lessons with Luke, which is really cool. And they allow me to do whatever I want. I mean, look, I try to educate. I want everyone to have fun. Look, I'm from Louisiana. I like to use simple words, right? I am not trying to confuse anybody. I want to use things as examples in our real life, that we all can relate to. And so I just try to break down some of the stuff that I learned while trading over, I think, almost 20 years, might be over 20 years now, getting up there. And so, we'll be talking about options. We'll be talking about, there's some videos that I've done where I break down how to buy a call option, how to do a risk reversal, right? And obviously, you're going to have to watch it a couple of times to understand it, but it's enough to get you going. And I think that that's one thing that people are missing out there is like, there's a lot of stuff out there about options or Wall Street, whatever, it's on (26/35)
YouTube. But just trying to bring that hometown easy to understand language, I think just makes it a little bit more enjoyable. So, at this point, they're having a lot of fun making these videos. And Frank, I will say that at some point, the more you guys let me do this, I'm going to start bringing in the rodeo clowns and the college students and all that. But look, I'm just trying to have fun. You told me before we started to work together, just be you. I want you to have fun. I want you to do strategies that you enjoy doing. And that is what we're doing here. So, it's really an extension of my brain whenever we put all this stuff together. But I mean, the team behind the scenes, that's where all the glory should go because they do a lot of work. Yeah. I mean, yeah, they're okay. I don't want to give them too much credit, right? Otherwise it takes away the credit from us, right? But I think the team is and stuff that did great and get stuff out, right? I mean, I'm doing videos (27/35)
literally for all my products and the next day you're getting it. And that is impossible. Even in, I don't even know competitors that do that. They get it out that quickly, but that's how great our team is. Save someone wants to sign up to this newsletter, right? So, this is going to be a higher price newsletter because it is option-based, a lot more work, a lot more trades. If someone who is not familiar with options, if you're familiar with options, it's a no-brainer and people understand it. But say if you're not familiar, I mean, you have the Big Money Trader guidebook going through that in the videos. Talk about the educational component because I think that is the biggest part when people are getting into options, it scares them. And they think that every option means that you have unlimited risk and you're going to get crushed. And, you know, they don't really understand it because they never really did it. But a lot of these people don't know that you could do these options (28/35)
strategies and it's very easy simply through your online brokerage account, right? Yeah, that's correct. And you know, people may not realize this, but I have some options courses that I taught years ago and thousands of people have taken them. And the approach that I took back then was to make sure that everyone understands their risk whenever they're doing an options trade, right? And it's not that options are scary. You just have to know what you're doing. Right. And so I get that it might be a little hard for people to wrap their heads around. So behind the scenes, whenever you sign up for any of my products, is there is a trading guide where not only do we walk you through exactly how buying a call, like what that looks like and what's involved and what are the mechanics, but also doing a risk reversal trade. Right. And that's also a little bit of a higher level strategy. But we go over it not only in, you know, the written word, but also we're doing it via video. And I'm going to (29/35)
continue to make these videos just so everyone is very clear on what we're trying to do. Right. All of the strategies that I do, whether it's big money report, big money trader, they're all, you know, bullish. Right. So you don't have to worry about, you know, unlimited losses, which is if you were short some stock or you sold some call, that's not what we're going to be doing. We're going to be making bullish bets. And so your risk is limited, but you do need to know a little bit before you get started if it's all new to you. And I try my hardest to explain options, which can be so difficult. I remember when I, you know, the first week I started working on Wall Street, I was on a derivatives desk and literally people were, you know, they were speaking French, they were speaking Greek. They threw this big options Bible on my desk and they're like, learn this. And then finally I had a full one of the guys over, which I'm friends with today. I was like, you got to break this down into (30/35)
easy to understand language, the way he taught me. I'm able to impart a lot of that wisdom into other people because it's not that complicated. No, that's great stuff. That's great stuff. And again, I really love the educational content and everything you've been doing for us. I mean, you can tell you care. I think you come off genuine. And that's all I want. You know, I want people to, you know, you're educating investors. You're teaching them for me. I can always look in the mirror and be very happy what we're doing for investors here. Again, we're all going to have losers. We're going to teach you guys how to avoid them, how to limit your risk, what you do. And I just love the work you're doing, but I'm looking forward to launching your new service, a big money traded this month. I think you see lots of demand for it because especially from your current subscribers to a big money report who, you know, just accelerating those games or options strategy to be unbelievable. So I'm very (31/35)
excited to launch. It's coming out in a couple of weeks, really good stuff. And I want, just want to say, thanks for all the hard work you're doing for us. I really appreciate it. And thanks for coming on, man. It means a lot. Frank, I'm going to say back at you, man. It has been a lot of fun. I like working with the team. I like what you're doing. Wall Street is unplugged. I believe it. And so I'm just glad to be along for the ride. Nah, it's awesome. That's awesome. All right, man. So I'll be talking to you soon. I know over the next couple of days and yeah, anybody questions, comments, feel free to email me at frankkurserysearch.com and you're going to see lots of emails coming out with this new product we're really excited about. So Luke, thanks again so much for coming on and I know you join us again soon. All right. See ya. All right, man. So, uh, guys, listen, uh, really exciting stuff with, with a new product is a new backend product. We haven't launched it in a while. Uh, if (32/35)
you're interested to know, to learn more about Luke's service, if you, you know, you're not a current subscriber, go to big money report.com. Uh, just put your email in the box. You're going to get access to all this free content, everything for free. I want you to see everything that he's doing first before he decides to subscribe. Cause I know a lot of his current subscribers to be one report are going to be lined up to buy this newsletter because of the performance of what he's doing and his strategy and how easy it is to learn this stuff, which he's going to be teaching you. So, uh, really great stuff. Glad I have him on our team. He's a guy who could have went anywhere. He chose us and, uh, you know, I really respect that and just want to unleash him. He is, he said that he has a big social media following. I think that's going to change. You're seeing subscribers. I'm seeing, uh, more and more people email in and saying, great job, Luke. I love what he's doing here. So, uh, it's (33/35)
really cool to get guys like that, uh, working with you. And that's what we want to do going forward, put the right people in front of you, help you make money and educate you. So really happy Luke's part of this team. And that's it for me again, to find out more information, especially on Luke, uh, you could go to, uh, big money report.com. Again, I'll give you access to all those free concepts you can take a look at. And then we'll be sending out special offers to subscribers and, you know, Curzio research people only, uh, which you'll get if you're interested. And, uh, yeah, so that's it for me. Really appreciate all the support. Love you guys. And I'll see you next week. Take care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio research. One of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on wall street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your (34/35)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there. It's September 6th I'm Frank gorgeous the Washington podcast. We break the headlines and Today what's really moving these markets Hopefully you enjoy the nice long weekend College football starting Pro Football starts next week, which is a great thing in history Which is awesome, but now it's back to work Some kind of officially over and I'm starting to get a lot of questions because of my last monologue Right told you I'm nervous about the markets So the Fed is clueless looking to raise rates significantly from here while shrinking its balance sheet the same time as What? China is in horrible horrible shape horrible shape Europe is even worse US indicators showing clear signs inflation is moderating velocity of money levels not seen since a Great Depression where money (1/35)
is clearly clearly flowing out of the market Feds achieving its goal. Well, they're not admitting it housing market we can Significantly where even going forward. We're not gonna see all while housing is going up and another leg up No, there's few people taking out mortgages with rates over Four and a half percent five percent an hour five and a half percent They almost pushed to six percent and remember the Fed wants go higher and higher here Look what's going on with the ten-year high. It is three point three The two-year forget it Unbelievable showing signs of recession right cuz inverted PMI services terrible horrible number You see Frank well rent. Yes rents big component of CPI is gonna stay high for a bit So will food not all food. We've seen that roll over as well explain that a minute we've seen energy roll over and There's lots of bulls out there lots of bulls and they make a great case looking at supply demand imbalances and what's going on. I covered oil for over 20 years I (2/35)
visited major shell areas I talked to people who are much much smarter than me and There's one certainty when it comes to oil That oil Always always always always adjusts it's a cyclical market It's the ultimate cyclical market Well higher price result many people are finding ways to cut back and they do this every time the price of oil surges every time You can say well uranium cyclical and corn is cyclical or this come out of your cyclical it's not like oil And oil I mean hits our wallet immediately right with gas prices Energy prices electricity price it hits us immediately and we adjust we always adjust we saw we're seeing in the band numbers Now you're right When it comes to Russia when it comes to shutting off, which isn't a real supply that's surprised they shut off Well, right. I mean most analysts into those can happen There's on the table or in the works for over a month Russia saying the maintenance is causing it when we know it's not maintenance But Let's see what happens (3/35)
because when we're looking at oil as it goes higher people adjust gonna be wrong this absolutely Absolutely, but you're looking at oil coming down pretty sharply and not only that Hurricane season what happened hurricane season not it not existent not existed. No hurricanes three storms name I'm afraid to use that term non-existent Given I live in Florida. I don't want to jinx it But two straight months from July 30 to today where there's been no hurricanes name the storms If you look at August specifically, this is the first time just to put this in perspective because I had to look this up in 25 years Where in August have been no hurricanes name for the month. In fact, if you date back for seven decades This only happened twice two other times The hurricane season extends through November and we've gotten very bad hurricanes I'm not saying that all everything is cool. But when you see our arcades come it's a nice pop In energy prices usually and we don't have that either again That's (4/35)
temporary and we see that adjust just like we see it seasonally in terms of the holidays in the summer and more driving And stuff like that, but people adjust They do they adjust I adjust it We're gonna rent because you know gasoline prices even at this these levels where you know Whatever they 25% lower than they were 30% lower than they were there's still much higher than they were a year ago But we're like effort. I'm gonna get an apartment near our house that we're building and make it easier for us My hope was stay there. I'll go there at night on and off back and forth We're adjusting everybody's gonna adjust you can't afford it You can't afford it especially when you're seeing your portfolios down 20% plus which aren't there down 20% plus if you own any growth names if you Outperformed that did well in a market in the last 10 years chances are you own a lot of the fang names which are all Getting crushed technology is getting crushed and video is getting crushed The only s to be (5/35)
Yes, you're down like 12 13 14 percent whatever it's down right now And then you see your home price coming down right psychologically You're like wow sediment wise I need to slow down and oils one of the things you slow down but was Under 90 $87 is over 123 months ago close to a 30% decline If it says we see no signs of inflation slowing right coppers down 22% on the past three months corn is down 20% Although it has popped off. It slows his old past three months wheats down 35% of past three months I mean you're looking at lumber. Holy cow Lumbers absolutely crashed crashed down 65% since March down 40% in three months I Don't know where demand for lumber is gonna come from with the housing market crashing and home builders are not clearly you know after this cycle which you know they they're building and What's keeping prices a little bit elevated not completely crashing is because we need more homes built, but they're slowing Just listen to the calls. They're slowing. They're (6/35)
adjusting. They're used to these markets. They lived with them before the almost got destroyed in 2008 They got bailed out Under the table under under under the table when they were allowed to report those losses those years losses Well, you can count those losses to gains for that got extended to three years That's why home builds were the biggest buys I Remember researching that and then I'm telling Kramer 2010-11 wasn't there anymore. He's like holy shit did a whole segment on it mention me He's like this incredible those things just surged It's a pretty big deal when you can take three years of losses against You know all the profits that you're gonna generating which profits surged Maybe not the first year, but the next two years right housing back back significantly didn't have to pay any taxes What does that result in more buybacks? I? Won't say dividends but much more buybacks better balance sheets huge cash flow, but if you look at these statistics, they're real Don't get lots (7/35)
of questions about What do I need to see or what do we need to see when it comes to the economy? You know for me to change my mind or not to be so nervous about the marks over the next six to twelve months And there are a few things the Fed needs to address That they are seeing signs of inflation slow doesn't mean that they have to say that they're gonna ease But they have to see something cuz right now. They're balls to the wall. It's crazy and people look at this I'm even seeing a lot of Not a lot two or three economists. I mean listen it's podcast But starting to say listen to the Fed the Fed's pretty crazy They're looking to go over four percent without even looking at what's coming out ahead And if you look at the last month and a half two months of data. Holy shit. What a difference It was compared to two months prior Massive and yes, we're still up I'm not saying six seven percent inflation Holy shit, but it's drastically coming down and it like in a light switch, and we see it (8/35)
industry to industry to industry We saw what oil we saw it with retailers immediately, holy shit we have tons of inventory out of nowhere What happens supply chain concerns chip market now in a glut what the hell happened? I thought they couldn't get some enough supply now you're in a glut like immediately it happens When demand shuts off it shuts off like a light switch, that's twice so tough being a retail business and people change in Days, and it's almost impossible to predict you try to predict it, but it's difficult Obviously the people with the best algorithms of the world Target Walmart Amazon got this totally totally totally wrong Balls of war producing holy cow we gotta get our supply chains better They did a great job and then got all this inventory and holy cow demand I know we're stopped these are the guys who know everything about everyone in the world and they got it wrong Now the Fed needs to address this hey inflation is slowing, but we're gonna keep our eye on it. (9/35)
That would be good I mean we're gonna get a hot CPI number based on rents, which are starting to come down, but we'll take time And rents are fixed Right they go up year over year. Yes. They're up significantly year over year the month over month is starting to come down But it's not like holy cow food. I need to buy it buy it buy it buy It's not like your rents going up every single month. It's getting adjusted. Maybe a year Maybe two years three years depending on your lease or whatever But it's gonna take a while for that number to come down Which means gonna be a hot CPI number so hopefully the Fed doesn't just say hey, okay? High CPI we need to come down faster, and we're gonna raise They continue this rhetoric of we don't see any signs of inflation slowing I'm gonna continue to aggressively raise rates into next year to control inflation no matter what it's gonna be terrible for equities It's gonna be horrible for equities. You know why? Because we're in a zero growth market I (10/35)
mean you look at GDP numbers coming down crashing all over the world and Countries are sitting on more debt than any time in their histories by raising rates can continue to raise rates We're increasing the cost of servicing that debt is the Fed monitoring that are they seeing what's going on other countries I mean Russia is still a wild card One things I would love to see some easing of tensions I mean if this happens over the next three six months, which is unlikely That's seen any signs of that. We're gonna see food prices come down also all prices pull back even further most likely That would be great for the markets But the data we need to see data if you're asking me. You know what's gonna. Cheat. We need to continue to see data That's showing inflation is moderating I mean so PWC come out with a study suggesting or Estimating based on their survey the 50 cent of companies asked me 500 gonna be laying off workers I Think that number is conservative since earnings are declining (11/35)
year over year when you strip out energy And it's important to strip out energy We're not just taking it and stripping it out like the shrink strip it out food energy or whatever But energy is a major component. It's on fire without it. We would have saw earnings decline 4% year over year instead they're up 6% That's the difference in energy where profits are up close to 300% year over year 300% for a sector not a company a sector that might make sense to you looking at prices, but 300% holy cow but speaking of earnings We need to see estimates come down, and you know what we are finally finally like the heavens finally seeing it This is facts that reports I'd tell you this is free information It's one of the greatest reports that you'll get for free market related. It's going to go with a fact set earnings It just came out. This is data. I believe is from yesterday So analysts have lowered their estimates significantly into q3 as you line August which we all know have been slowing (12/35)
dramatically Dramatically So July and August or what the first two months which are calculated to next course earnings with September being the third July and August have been incredibly slow to where earnings estimates have been lowered by five point four percent in August That's how much the S&P 500 earnings when they package them all together all the earnings That's how much it's been lowered five point four percent in August those estimates. You don't hear about this Upgrades downgrades and when they report you're gonna say did they beat that number did not be the number You're not gonna know that number was $2 But now it's a dollar fifty and then they report a dollar sixty and everybody celebrates and say wow they beat by ten cents That's what you're used. That's what they're conditioning you to believe. It's still the number still a dollar sixty and it was supposed to be two dollars That's my take on Disney when they say they beat the numbers and losing more money They ever lost (13/35)
and their earnings have not even come close to going back to pre-covid levels One the only companies in the Dow that I could say that outside of Boeing But yeah, they're beating cuz estimates have been lowered now Let's put that in perspective that five point four percent in August because that's just a it's a percentage It sounds like it's small. Is it big? I don't know Gotta put things in perspective if you go back ten years the average decline in earnings per share over the first two months of any Quarter, this is fact set for you great research Have been two point seven percent. This is double that That's a massive revision massive it shows you that earnings are coming down significantly So revisions are more than double the average and I got news for you They're gonna come down even more So my companies are seeing this if you strip out earnings and you look at the rest of earnings for the rest of SP 500 those sectors They're coming down when you see earnings coming down year over (14/35)
year It means that you're going to probably lay off employees you have to cut costs That's the easiest way to do it. And if you're looking at the earnings, it's broad-based There's nine of the eleven sectors have seen the estimates cut by analysts Which is a good sign this means that expectations are being lowered However, if you look more closely at the data Which I did and I want you guys to take a look at this if you're on our YouTube page You could see it. If not, if you're listening to this pull up a fact set and You're gonna be amazed If you look at earnings are gonna be pretty bad next quarter to where they've already been revised significantly lower But we're likely to see this for the next two to three quarters where we could see negative year over year Earnings per share I would say growth but it's not growth Which is basically an earnings recession you're not gonna see because you got to strip out energy But you know what? Let's bring some of this up and I'm gonna share it (15/35)
right now So you're looking at the sector level S&P 500 I'm just gonna change this input really quick So you can see my arrow on here so S&P 500 sector level change Then this is q3 2022 earnings per share and explain everything even though some people be watching this way If you're not watching you can understand it. If you look at energy so the sector level change in q3 2022 earnings per share Right from June 30 to August 31st You're looking at energy is up nine point six percent. Remember I said nine out of the eleven sectors The other sectors real estate's up. It's a point one percent Now look at the rest of the sectors utilities, okay flat it's down point one percent Financials down four percent industrials down four percent S&P 500 overall again down five point four percent Healthcare down seven half percent materials down seven point nine percent consumer discretionary down eight percent Information technology down nine percent communication services down almost thirteen percent (16/35)
I mean, this is recession all over it you strip out energy. You got recession all over this. I Mean it's crazy So these are the earnings revisions. This is how much if you're looking at on average is you know five point four percent Which will give you the bottoms up If you're looking at these numbers, it's insane of the declines that we're seeing Of how they're pulling back finally, which is good. That's a good sign If we keep going here, there's other things here that I wanted to show you So looking at S&P 500 calendar year 2022 complete the calendar year 2023 earnings. Okay, this is all the earnings guys That are packed into the S&P 500 together. Okay, if you take them all together They're expected to finish a year at 226 Last year, I believe they closed at 210. So we're still gonna see earnings growth this year despite how terrible the markets been Do you really think we should be seeing earnings growth? No, a lot of that is energy but 226 is a big number but more importantly (17/35)
they're expecting 2023 to be 243 So $243 in earnings with all the S&P 500 companies again, that's over seven percent growth and at 226 That's seven percent growth from last year In recession every time when GDP is slowing where companies are looking to lay off employees We've seen inventory concerns now you see in supply chain guts Gluts in semiconductors you really think earnings are gonna grow close to eight percent Annually over the next two years this year and next year. There's no effing way that's gonna happen There's no way that's gonna happen. I Mean, it's crazy when you think about it, but you get to Net profit margins it gets even crazier Right net profit margins people like oh, well, we have to raise prices We have to raise prices no matter what because of inflation. It's amazing that profit margins are incredibly high They're higher than the five-year average. They're over 12% That's something I could show you as well But if you're looking here energy was a largest (18/35)
contributor So when you look at net profit margin for the SP 500 like well, you know They're keeping up with their margins, which is good. That should be good for stocks Yeah, you gotta break it down further because if you look at energy energy Their profit margins went from six and a half percent to fourteen point four percent. It's a major percentage and major part of the net profit margin of the average But Even say on the other hand nine sectors are reporting I've reported a year-over-year decrease and their net profit margins in q2 2022 compared to q2 2021 nine out of 11 sectors Right, and that's right here on the fact set report nine out of 11 sectors. Again YouTube. Absolutely free. You can see the charts I like bringing this stuff up when I'm going through it. That's pretty crazy Seeing profit margins. What does that mean if profit margins are coming down? It means that You're not seeing inflation. Yeah, you've seen it in energy You know energy prices have come down there's (19/35)
still up year over year again They're gonna be stubbornly high even at eighty six dollars, but natural gas prices are through the roof still So close to the highs at 850 and I think nine with their highs whatever and forget it what where they are in Europe I mean, I don't mean to laugh. I'm laughing sarcastically, but holy shit. I Mean it is crazy over there It's a crisis And people could die because they're not gonna have the energy to heat their homes during winter It's crazy. They're absolutely crazy But you look at those net profit margins. What does it tell you? It tells you that the Fed rate hikes are working They're working but the Fed is just totally blind I don't know if they're blind or just fed speak because they don't want to stimulate the market They don't want money right away. Holy cow. Let's go. It's gonna go higher. Everybody's gonna be all it No, I get it, but they are really you don't have to go that far and say no matter what? They're going past 4% and we're not (20/35)
even gonna ease them for the next 16 months Like they could predict more than three months we've seen the feds track record over the past two years It's the worst. It's the worst ever if you had a four-year-old kid They would have predicted the market and when it came to inflation better than the Fed It's a joke. He's supposed to be the smartest guys in the room. I Mean you couldn't be more wrong than them, but you're looking at profit margins, right? I mean the data is there for the world to see earnings and profit margin for 90% of the sectors and SP 500 declining year over year and It's gonna get worse just where rates are right now Think about that and the Fed wants to continue tightening So you have to be careful here and Look, we've got familiar with the term for 10 years. Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the Fed Zero interest rates all the bears telling you the marks gonna crash marks gonna create doesn't when you have a printing machine That's on 24 hours a (21/35)
day and it doesn't matter. It was a buy the dip mentality, but don't fight The Fed is not just a bullish term It shouldn't be used just for bull markets Because you can't fight the Fed here, right? I mean it was used a million times against those bears or millions of times The marks gonna crash get a crash get a crash right when you have zero interest rates massive money printing quantitative easy It wasn't gonna happen but now look I mean buying stocks here you're fighting the Fed a Fed who says interest rates are going to go significantly higher from here. That's what they said They said we will be shrinking our balance sheet take more dollars out of the economy You're gonna see it right now starting now. You're seeing it going forward Whatever it is 90 billion 100 billion a lot of shrinking to do I won't get into the dollar dollar being higher helps that a little bit, but And put in perspective. We're looking at the balance sheet increasing by 4 trillion to what 9 trillion over the (22/35)
past year You could do the math on it if you're taking say a hundred billion out of the market a month What is that gonna do? What 1.2 billion after a year for I mean 1.2 trillion so 4 trillion you're looking I mean, you're not gonna shrink up by that much but just goes to show you It's just another drag It's another drag in the economy You have to realize the Fed here it's this is the Fed this is a market about the Fed You look at earnings can't look at Russia, okay, it's the feds 100% the Fed if you're gonna buy equities the Fed It's the Fed right now That's all you need to be focused on because they are God when it comes to the markets they control money They control the world if you don't think so look where the dollar is right now against almost any other currency outside of the room Which is my bottom Yours at 20 year lows against a dollar yen is at 24 year lows against all ones that near a two-year low They're inflating it when did you ever see China inflate their currency (23/35)
They're telling their banks to they can't hold as many foreign currencies foreign dollars at banks Hold your own currency. When do you see that? Holy cow? That's not a sign that China's horrible right now. I don't know what is But for me you gotta look at September September is Extremely important this is where the Fed and this whatever 20 21st whatever date that is right around there could check it Oh Be let you know exactly what that date is going up to as we get closer and closer But the feds gonna raise rates by 50 basis points. They're not gonna do 75 basis points I don't think so unless they're complete idiots. They don't need to But the rhetoric around that is very very important the Fed speak is going to be significant Because even as we look the markets today Mean they're trying to catch a bid as a technical suggest We're given oversold conditions and it looks like the marks gonna bounce back really quick and then pull whatever the technicals I don't care about the technicals. (24/35)
I really don't you want to trade the market trade the market I care about the next six to twelve months But what do we see so the market try to catch a bid today and then pull back by 10 o'clock and now Might be up a little bit back and forth, but you know, you seen this, you know sell into strength opportunity Sell sell some members buy the dip buy the dip buy the dip It seems like every time we got strength it sell into it because there's so many uncertainties Again Europe is a disaster. China is horrible the property market is Terrible is crashing. They're trying to hide as much they can they can't there's too many people that have fed up That are actually reporting and getting their news out Just like they did during kovat finally how many people reported that disappeared? Wuhan, they're reporting saying we got this virus here in December. People are dying. All the hospitals are full We don't know what's going on yet China did the most wonderful thing in the world they closed (25/35)
travel to the rest of the world to all of China from one But if you live in Wuhan, you could travel to the rest of the world if you want. That's okay While they were preaching for the next two months that hey This is a contagious. It's not human for you human a human transmission That's what they said and they even got the who was on the payroll To buy in and say wow China was the best they were amazing they were unbelievable with their response You can hate Donald Trump, but the one good thing he did was cut funding to that piece of shit organization I mean give me a break They weren't even even allowed into China and they said that China would not let anyone in to help them out People want the countries were like listen, we'll help you. Let's see what's going on. They're like, no no, no, no. No, isn't that a sign? Doesn't that tell you where it started? You're gonna believe China what's going on right now? It is horrible terrible being underreported still It's a disaster People are (26/35)
starting to rise up against the government never happens Can't get your money out of banks Shits frozen still lockdowns over kovat when you think they would know more about code than anyone Why are you locking down during kovat which is a cold for most people and we know who to protect You know you created it. You should know all these stats. Come on. Why are you closing down everything? It's a disaster It'll be interesting to see how much of the metals and things and steel and everything else They're gonna be dumping on our market because they have such a surplus of it right now. Let's see When it comes to the Fed, that's the biggest question mark Because I'm struggling to find any growth catalyst any I mean again Europe China you look at Russia Ukraine war I mean South America gonna pick up the world though It's all about the US The feds doing everything its power to slow growth further, which is Insane right now. You may say Frank. What about the cows where stocks are cheap. Are we (27/35)
cheap? I mean some sectors and individual names are no doubt cheap But if you're looking at SP 500 as a whole Earnings are coming down estimates are coming down which means that SP 500 stays where it is Right stays where it is The fold PE is gonna go higher gets more expensive since the earnings estimates are going lower If you think we would be trading at 15 times earnings We're still trading at 70 times forward earnings because earnings are being revised lower and lower and lower So if those you think the SP fine is gonna go up as it goes up and earnings go lower It's gonna get really really expensive pretty quickly But it's 70 times forward earnings. That's around the five-year average. We're not dirt cheap. We're not like super cheap. We buying pennies Your assets for pennies on the dollar So it's all about the Fed right now. That's everything. That's what's confusing. That's what people are You know people like me months ago seen the bottom market saying hey, you know what? It's a (28/35)
good time goal in the feds definitely gonna change it to September But man Jackson hole and what they said and how every one of them were on board and confirmed and just listen They were going 4% for an episode might go higher. Holy shit. Are you not seeing what's going on right now? Are you really not seeing it? It's absolutely crazy That's what the markets looking at right now the Fed. It's the only thing it cares about They should never fight the Fed Not just when the policy is easy from the Fed, but also when it's tightening You start to be cautious here With that said I am picking away at some biotech names in crypto since these sectors have been annihilated annihilated some of these names down 75 80 percent still much more than the markets And the Fed goes balls to the wall and says, you know what we are raising rates We're gonna continue to raise rates Yes, some of these names are gonna get hit probably not as hard as the rest of the market because they're down so much There's (29/35)
lots of biotech great biotech names trading below net cash right now however If the Fed just hints and says look We're gonna look at Titan but we're gonna look at the data right now The data is clearly showing that inflation is moderating. It's still too high But it's a good sign that we're seeing it moderating That's a totally different tone than we don't see any sign at all and we're gonna pedal to the metal That's a big difference and the Fed does that first option and says look we still see inflation. We're moderating it We're not gonna do anything stupid here, but we are seeing what we've done already. We've seen the effect they're working That's gonna be a boom to the market and the stocks that you're investing in right now. I would throw crypto in there I would throw biotech in there and I would throw small caps in general in there because man there are some great Great companies in there trading a dirt cheap valuations again We have to leverage and this is what happens in (30/35)
markets when you have to leverage it doesn't happen often It's every 10 years 15 years or so We see these massive to leverage in people over leverage and they got so much money in the market and it creates forced Selling of even good assets that come down tremendously just like we saw with the housing crisis 2010 I live in front ending the beach Amelia Island and When I moved here in 2010 90% Probably more than 90% of the homes on the water right over here on the water. Probably maybe a hundred homes were for sale Because you had probably had three or four different buyers I would leverage no money down that bought all these freaking properties and they just walked away. So I'm gonna walk away I don't have anything down Give me these things are down 20 30 percent. They came to the government those houses They were probably going some of them for 400 500 thousand dollars. They're probably two three four million dollars some of these houses Maybe a million and a half you can get for a (31/35)
cheap one that's on the water, which is the ocean It's not the bay But that's what happens. You only see those major disconnects We'd have it to leverage in process and you're seeing that in small caps where people just you know Running away from risky assets. That's what happens when you move money from the market. That's biotech That's also cryptos and that's about buying, you know Stupid cryptos and utilities had no utility function is I don't know about the good names the top 20 30 names are down significantly And they are really good names. They have utilities and everything Very very good names. That's what I'm looking Because the Fed does change its tone just a little bit These things are gonna go up 2x to 3x in probably a six-month period and if they do that They're still gonna be trading below their 52-week highs. That's how low they are right now They went from 10 to 2 they can go to 6 or 7 and again, they're still well below the 52-week high 10 That's what you're seeing in (32/35)
this area. That's you're gonna be seeing in a lot of my newsletters But you have to be cautious I'm not telling you to sell everything go nuts But if the Fed comes out September and just says the same rather the same exact tone that they had in Jackson Hole watch out Don't be surprised if the market pulls back another 10% through the lows and it's gonna get really really ugly And then maybe the Fed realize oh wait, okay, we do see signs because there's signs everywhere that inflation is moderating everywhere There's also sign inflation not moderating a couple of things Like I said food energy, but if you look at so many so many things Holy cow, and you just talk to people out there. You're starting to see it Wait to the holidays. They're coming up Wait to the holidays wait to Black Friday when you see you're buying TVs for $250 out of 55 inch screens flat screens 4k Then you're gonna realize how much inventory supply these guys have and how much they have to dump it Hopefully we don't (33/35)
have to wait till then We'll see any questions or comments. I'm here for you Now it sounds a little dreary, but I'm being real with you And pick it away at some of the things that are down a lot the Fed should be your main concern That's the only thing right now. That's the growth catalyst that supes everything else Russia China everything else at the Fed reverses tone if not if you throw in all the other risks and pile it up It doesn't look good for equities to look at for any asset class And he has class other than the dollar which is why it continues to search Guys questions comments frankers research.com here for you really appreciate all support. You know I said all the time truly mean it guys Thank you so much Listen to podcast trust in me Subscribing to our products try to provide the best research out there for you guys, but I really really appreciate again Thank you so much for all the support I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio (34/35)
research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's October 19th. I'm Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Talking about last week, the craziness of the markets. It's up, it's down, it's bearish, it's bullish. But I think we all could agree there's lots of risks in the marketplace right now. And you have to be concerned. We all see inflation, no matter what they say, if it's transitory or not, we all see it. You see the inflation risks. You see the labor shortages where, just off of those two risks alone, you're seeing prices are being raised, say at your favorite restaurant, yet the service isn't as good because they have less employees, it's longer, they even close it for days now to account for it. It's (1/35)
not easy to do. I change my habits of different places that I've gone to because prices are higher, but I'm not getting the same service. You can't really do that for long. It's going to hurt a lot of businesses. Some have pricing power and that's fine. Those are big risks. I'm saying stocks are expensive right now, peak earnings. Hey, we'll see. I mean, it's in the heart of earnings season right now. We've seen financials do well, some companies do well. Procter & Gamble didn't really raise. You need to see beats and raises at these valuations. You just can't see beats. And it's tough to raise when you have supply chain issues. China numbers are slowing. How much is Evergrande going to be a problem to real estate industry there? There's lots of stuff there. And those supply chain issues finally, I mean, we've been talking to them for a while. Now you're seeing them everywhere. I still don't think, just because we're talking about them, that there's no risk there because it's supposed (2/35)
to be bottoming and it's not. Apple just cut their iPhone production by 10%. And today I get this report from IHS Market, M-A-R-K-I-T, and they track auto production based on the supply chain issues and chip disruption. And they are the best of the best. This is where I've gotten a lot of information from alone. I get information from you. I love hearing from you. A lot of you are within this industry. Sent me amazing emails months ago. Let me know how terrible it was. And these numbers are available to CEOs of the auto companies and everything. And they were bullshitting you. They were lying through their teeth. Lying through their teeth here six months ago. Saying, hey, this is a Q2 problem and we're good. No way. So IHS Market publishes their reports and forecasts every single week, every single week on Monday. And this Monday's report, they just lowered their production for Q3 and Q4 again. And even before this data was released, it's from Alex Partners, it's all over CNBC. This is (3/35)
about three, four weeks ago. Said the auto industry will lose $210 billion. $210 billion in sales just this year due to the chip shortage. I think that number is conservative. And instead of an IHS Market, cut Q3 and Q4 global auto production figures again. It's now predicted that auto companies will sell roughly 11 million fewer cars this year due to the chip shortage. Which makes that $210 billion number, again, very, very conservative. So still lots of risks out there. But as analysts, we like buying stocks and buying sectors. For what we do, my job, our job is to always find the themes and areas that are working. Because even during the most volatile risky markets, there's almost always something that's working. Almost always. Unless you have crazy, crazy 2008, 2009 credit crisis, nothing was working unless you short the market. And COVID, right? It just came down together and didn't take long, month and a half. Big downfall. We started bouncing up right away. But usually there's (4/35)
things within the market that work. And here's some examples. Look at banking. Our government injected $11 trillion into the market, and they're not done. $11 trillion. $11 trillion. I saw a stat, and I don't know if it's true and I don't want to look it up, but I think they said 45% of all the money ever printed was printed this year. I think it was 45%, I got to check to see if that's correct. I saw economists say that, and I was like, wait a minute, is that really true? Probably $11 trillion directly to consumers and businesses. Giving them free loans. That's great for banks. It's great for investment banks. Maybe invest like crazy. M&A everywhere. And rates are slowly rising, which is also really good for the net interest margins. They're going to expand. We took advantage of this at Curzio Research Advisor, recommend gold in near $200 a share a year ago, a little over a year ago. When everyone hated the financials, said, they're done, they're in trouble. It's over $400, 100% plus (5/35)
gains. And banks still have huge tailwinds behind them. Rates are still low. Money's still pouring into the market. Energy is also working. I missed this one. However, we have exposure to this trend through Dollar Stock Club, which is $4 a month. Basically an introductory letter to show you what we're all about. It's $4 a month, which is nothing. You can cancel whatever you want, but $4 a month to get the best ideas from the people that I interview each week. Write a one-page report on it, include a buyout to price, a stop loss. Got a lot of companies in the portfolio. I worked 100% on Oil, Gas ETF, which is a play off Chris McIntosh, bullish oil thesis. And this is about nine months ago, I think, maybe a year ago. And something I was like, I don't know guys, I don't know if I'm there yet. He was right. We took advantage of it and worked 100% on that. We also bought Tech's Physical Land Trust, which is an oil, gas royalty play. Those of you that have been following me for decades, this (6/35)
is my father's favorite stock pick he recommended in the single digits. I don't know where it is now, holy cow, it's like through the roof. But anyway, we bought that about 15 months ago. It's up 150%. And everything within energy is working. Even coal is working, but shale companies, majors, the services companies, deep water drillers, everything within that industry is working. Uranium. We didn't miss uranium. And holy cow. It's been crazy since, what was it, last month, month and a half ago, Sprott launched his physical uranium fund. But now, just this week, Kazakhstan announced its own physical uranium fund. Gonna buy physical uranium in the open market, expects to raise a half a billion dollars just for this fund. They're following in Sprott's footsteps. And even if you don't understand, it's a fundamental change to the industry because it's hard to get a spot price and price discovery. It's not like oil, natural gas, where you see it. I mean, you can find out what the price is (7/35)
today, but it's hard to get price discovery there. And now it forces it, whereas there's a discount on these things, they're buying uranium on the open market. That's pushing prices higher. It's a fundamental change to the industry. Being able to buy physical uranium every time the price drops, that was never the case. And then you have the whole ESG movement behind that, where you have to throw uranium in there as one of the best clean energies, which is abundant, cheap, clean, safe, 24-hour base load unlike solar and wind. UK this week, the UK adoption, they needed to hit the net zero emission strategy. You have Japan talking about bringing their closed nuclear plants back online. Big deal. Holy cow. And demand from electricity companies is surging. They must lock in prices now. And they have to do this. They're at a risk paying 20, 50% more months from now. And you look at the price, is 47, 48, so it is right now. I mean, they say you need 55 to really break even, 55 maybe a little (8/35)
bit higher than that. But they're well over 120 pounds a pound pre-Fukushima. The market just went to shit since 2010. But conditions right now are much better than pre-Fukushima in terms of fundamentals, supply demand imbalances, more countries adopting nuclear to satisfy the green energy needs, and much more about the position than back then. We had Amir Adnani who's just totally engulfed in this industry his whole career. We had him on September 2nd when uranium prices were at $33 a pound, now 48. It was because of 50 cent gains in less than two months. We recommended the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust through his interview, and the stock's up 30%, 45 days. He's a chairman of Uranium Royalty, which we're up 85% in, in Dollar Stock Club. Then we also have UEC in the portfolio. That was after, that's Amir Adnani company, but I interviewed Spencer Abraham, former Secretary of Energy, who was the chairman of UEC. Not long ago, we're up 100% on that name. So you're taking advantage of (9/35)
different areas. And hopefully you have exposure to this industry because this is not a short-term trend. So a price going from 35 to 50, back down to 40. Now they're pushing 50 again. It's going to be volatile, but overall, you're going to see a lot of names do very, very well going forward. And I wouldn't be surprised in six months from now if we see prices at $75. I wouldn't be surprised at all. And these physical funds, money's pouring into them. It's a way for hedge funds to get into this market. It's very difficult for them to get into this market. There's not a lot of great plays that are volatile, that have enough volatility in them. And UEC, and now you're seeing it. Other than Cameco as well, but Cameco and UEC are those two players that have the most volatility where you can trade back and forth. Now you have these funds. Now you're going to see more and more institutional money flow into these things and flow into this industry. So definitely not too late to get exposure. (10/35)
And what else is working? Crypto. I'm getting tons of questions about Bitcoin. Of course, crypto's over 60,000 again. We've seen it pull back to 40 twice, I think in the past 45 or 60 days. Now back up again. What are you just going to have when it goes back down there? People are pissed they didn't buy it. They're going to want to buy it. They made the first Bitcoin ETF just getting approved, which is, I'm not going to lie to you, it's kind of a shitty ETF since it's futures based. You're tracking it. It's going to be tough given the roll loss every month. I don't get into more details of that, but it's not all ETFs. It's probably not the best one to approve right away, but that's okay. It's a bigger point. More ETFs are coming. And look, when you look at Bitcoin, whether you like it, whether you hate it, you don't understand it, whatever. And yes, there's a lot of BS in the marketplace, but there's also a lot of great stuff in there. But Bitcoin is the inflation hedge. It's the, I (11/35)
hate central government hedge. It's the, I hate Wall Street hedge. Hate global money printing forever hedge. And there's limited supply. And now you have banks, institutions, Wall Street, they're late to the party getting in. If you look at PayPal, Square, Visa, MasterCard, I mean, these guys have to adopt it. Not that they, hey, this is pretty cool. They have to, it threatens their business, their innovation to limiting the middleman. All payment financial companies, that's all of Wall Street. Wall Street's the middleman. That's where you see the most innovation come from by far is in the crypto industry. It's incredible. Goldman just filed to launch a DeFi ETF. It's like a couple of months ago. What did they do, 13, 14 billion in sales or whatever for the last quarter? I mean, these guys don't launch an ETF unless they think it's a massive, massive market that can move the needle. And that's just one part. One small part of crypto, which is DeFi. You can see security token ETFs, NFT (12/35)
ETFs. These are coming as well now that that approval has happened, which means it's going to go more mainstream, more people, more institutions get in it. Those are three markets that have massive tailwind. Maybe energy's getting a little toppy. Financials, the risk reward isn't as great as it was six, nine months ago. But uranium and crypto, I mean, these are cyclical trends that I'm personally adding money to on pullbacks. If you're a CCI subscriber, we've done incredibly well in this portfolio. You have five companies up more than 10X. Two of those are up 20X and one is up 30X. We just have five names under our buy up to prices right now. And these five names I love since their plays are on crypto 2.0, which is the next phase of growth within crypto. And you look at DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse, security tokens. If you're listening to this, you're on our email list. I'm sending out a special video. It's an offer to subscribe to my crypto intelligence newsletter. And I've gotten a lot of (13/35)
questions, a lot of people saying, hey, what's the best price you could offer? So I put together a video. It's very short. It's not a long 40, 50 minute video. I think it's like 15 minutes tops. Watch it because you're going to understand why I'm so excited about crypto. I don't care if you subscribe to the newsletter or not. After you watch the video, you probably are because you're going to see exactly what I'm talking about because this isn't your typical looking into the camera thing. I'm sharing my screen with you, showing you real time exactly what's going on in this market. And I'm also going to show you our crypto intelligence portfolio. If you're a subscriber, don't worry. I'm not giving away any of the stocks. I'm blotting them out. But you're going to see the gains and it's the full portfolio. You'll see a few losses in there. You're going to see, those are the stocks we recommended or the cryptos recommended that I think have tremendous upside potential. That's the full (14/35)
portfolio. And the point of this is what? It's to show you that as someone that's been doing it as long as me, for close to 30 years, I've never seen the gains that you could generate as a retail investor from a sector than this one. Never. And you'll see the proof. Why is that? You're looking at a market where as a retail investor, as a retail investor, and I'm a credit investor, I can get in some pretty good private deals. That's different. But as a retail investor, as not a credit, and you're looking for the greatest returns, look where these IPOs come out, where Robinhood, $38 billion valuation before you could buy it. Palantir, $21 billion valuation. Snowflake was up 100% on the open. That was close to a $70 billion valuation was the first time retail investors could buy Snowflake. You're looking at SPACs when they come out. Holy cow. I mean, you look at these companies that are merging with the SPACs to become publicly traded and you look at their valuation just six months before (15/35)
that. You'll be able to see it because these companies raise money. Once they raise money, they'll disclose, this company raised money and had a billion dollar valuation. And some of these companies would be $250, $300 billion valuation six months ago. I don't know what changed in six months, not much, but they'll come out of two, $3 billion valuations. And SPACs, they'll inflate these things and do these road shows because they know they could sell it to the retail investor. You're going to buy these things at crazy valuations. Yet, if you look at crypto, go to coinmarketcap.com. It's a free site. Just look at like the top 30, 40 of them and put a year chart and hit the market cap, not the price. You're going to see companies that were below $100 market cap that are like $15, $20 billion market cap that are even into the billions in terms of market caps. I mean, you're looking at 20X, 50X, even 500X gains inside of a year. I'm not going to tell you that you're going to generate those (16/35)
going forward, right? Obviously, right? You don't know what's going to happen. Maybe crypto crashes is a lot of garbage. What I'm telling you is that from a risk reward perspective, you cannot get those types of gains in the regular markets anymore. Yeah, you could get 300, 400, 500%. You'll see some of those in our portfolios. I'm talking about 20X and 30X gains inside of two and a half years. When have you seen that? Maybe you bought Netflix 15 years ago. Maybe you bought one of these things, whatever, Microsoft back in the day or you bought... Even if you bought, man, Google in the 80s when nobody wanted it, when it IPO'd, nobody wanted it. That was great for Google. Maybe you have an isolated example of you holding something for 15 years that did fantastic, but when you look at the gains in this sector and the fact that where the innovation is coming from, these big trends, and you're looking at it and say, wow, it's Bitcoin, it's Ethereum. Bitcoin and Ethereum, that was the (17/35)
foundation. That was the foundation of this. When you're looking at the next stage of growth and innovation, think of it as the internet. The intent in the late 1990s, massive growth taking place, everybody going crazy, everybody making a fortune before that crash. But I'll tell you something, Streamy wasn't around then. 5G wasn't around, AI wasn't around, social media didn't even exist. This is the innovation and the growth that takes place once the foundation, which was the internet, was built. The foundation is built. Bitcoin is here. Banks are forced to integrate it. It's already integrated and everything, so they can't shut it down without crashing everything. Limited supply. You're going to see Bitcoin continue to go higher. Pull back, it'll be volatile. When it does, you're going to see a lot of names go higher along with it. That includes some of the crap sometimes. And there is a lot of crap in this industry, so you need someone to guide you. But trust me, even if you're not (18/35)
going to subscribe to it, watch the video for 15 minutes and I show you exactly what I mean of why the opportunity, which I've been doing this for such a long time and I can tell you, I can identify with every investor. I don't care how rich you are. I don't care if your portfolio is $1,000. Everybody is looking for the grand slam and they're looking for it right away. I've got those returns out of crypto. I've made millions of dollars off of crypto. I'm not just bullshitting you here where I base my company and my reputation on this trend where we have our own security token. So nice to see the industry going crazy right now. It took a little while and I was on a fence going, maybe I was the idiot out there. I didn't know what I was talking about, but it's here. It's disrupting everything. This is the industry you're going to see innovation come from and learn about it. Start learning about it. You know it's tough, especially if you're an old investor, you're set in your ways, you (19/35)
don't want to learn anything. Start learning about it because it's not that hard to open an account. Technology is getting better. Now you have clearing. You have ETFs getting approved, the SEC coming on board. It's all happening. It's all happening and it's still very, very early in a lot of the next phase. I don't want to call it crypto 2.0 or whatever it is, but that's the next phase of growth where you're going to see DeFi, decentralized finance, where you're eliminating the middlemen and all these... It's why Wall Street has to get in. You're going to make fees just by being a middleman. It's $80 billion industry already, 80 billion. It's like double marijuana and it's going to grow 10X. It's a bigger market growing faster, but it was like, marijuana, I got to get it. This is much, much bigger. DeFi is much bigger than marijuana. Security tokens is 500 trillion in assets that could be tokenized. These are illiquid assets where you could sell off a piece of them. Only 1% of that is (20/35)
true. That's a $5 trillion market. That's incredible. And NFTs, yes, there's a lot of crap in it, but it's pretty cool to get something digital and original from maybe Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, your favorite celebrity, Wayne Gretzky. Some of that's really cool. It's a good market, but these are just opening up the possibilities. Now, you have the metaverse. You have so many great trends. A lot of this only flows through crypto. To get involved, you will receive a video from me. And again, just watch it. I don't know if you're subscribed or not. It is the best offer that I've... One of the best offers, I think. The best offer I'm pretty sure since we launched this, since launch was, I think, our best offer. That was four years ago for crypto intelligence. So, you're not going to see a better offer than this. And when you see the performance, I should be charging a lot more for this, but this is someplace I want to get you in. Why? We're independent. I don't get paid by companies to (21/35)
recommend them. So, if I don't show you gains, you cancel your service. So, we're pushing different products and services is because I think you can make a lot of money on it. Because if you do, then what are you going to do? You're going to subscribe to more of our products. That's what I want. I want you around for 20, 30 years. I don't want you around for a couple of days and wrecking you on some stupid story, which we see a lot in this industry, which is the reason why I started this company. Because there's a lot of bullshit out there. But it's a great, great, great opportunity. Here it is. Good price point. If you want to take advantage, fine. You have seven days to do it. If not, no worries. You've got lots of requests. That's why I put this together. And rightly so, because we're seeing crypto really take off, ETFs getting approved. It's really big. It's a hot theme right now, and I get it. But the next phase of growth is where people will get filthy rich if they invest in the (22/35)
right names. There's innovation there. These companies are coming out at very, very low valuations, or valuations where you're getting in near the ground floor, which you cannot do on Wall Street anymore unless you're an accredited investor and able to invest in a lot of these private companies. You'll see that. Maybe tomorrow, next day. But again, seven days if you want to subscribe. If not, no worries. But please, start learning about this trend. I've been saying that for over two years. And if you follow me, if you listen to me, even if you just bought Bitcoin then, you're doing extremely, extremely well, probably better than any stock that you purchased. I think this is just the beginning. Bitcoin, Ethereum are yesterday's news. I think Bitcoin is going to continue to grind higher. It's going to go higher. Ethereum, I'm worried about. There's other technologies that could have won in our portfolio that's an Ethereum killer. Everyone's switching over to it. The biggest companies are (23/35)
switching over to it. It's faster. You have no fees. Where we've been switching over to it, Ethereum, again, just different innovation going forward. And a lot of innovation, a lot of great markets. It's going to be very, very exciting. I'm excited right now, especially with security tokens, which we are right in the middle of. And subscribers at CCI are going to get a look at a lot of deals because there's a lot of companies coming to us trying to launch this thing. You can get in at discounts to these deals through new reggae offerings, which means retail investors, even you can get into some of these deals, which would be discounted right before the IPO, or what they like to call the STO, the security token offering. So really, really good stuff there. Again, I'll come out in a couple of days. But the theme here is focus on what's working. I'll say it again, I'm not sure if I'll go all in on energy right now. Financial is not a crazy risk reward, but uranium, crypto is still very (24/35)
early when it comes to that growth potential. But find the themes that are working. Now last week, I ran a little late with this. I didn't get a chance to answer some of your questions, which I'm doing a monologue, taking a few questions. So we'll do that today. Let's start with a question from John. He goes, hey Frank, hope all is well. I had a question regarding Ethereum. Thought a few years back I bought some on Binance, but a few months ago I had to transfer everything out of it because the website said I'm a US citizen. I couldn't trade on Binance and I had to go to their Binance US site. Have you heard of anyone else having the same issues with Binance website? I didn't see any theory in my Binance account and I checked Kraken and I didn't see any there. Just wondering if you had recommended any of the websites exchange to buy Ethereum in the past. I also checked Coinbase. There's no Ethereum there that I had bought. Thanks, John. Okay. I mean for crypto people who are in the (25/35)
industry, they'll be like, you know, but for people who are starting, this is a good question. So Binance had to create a site called Binance US because, you know, regulations and they can't just have all the crappy shit and garbage, which is, you know, they could trade that internationally, which is fine. So probably went to their Binance US account. I would call Binance and it should be in that account, but you could buy Ethereum anywhere. You could buy it on Coinbase. Coinbase is probably the best place. A lot of these sites, you might have a little bit of problems, customer service, huge demand, but you know, it's Coinbase, you could crack in, Gemini. I mean, get familiar with these sites. Even the BlockFi's you could buy, so many places you could buy Bitcoin, it's very, very easy right now. And this process used to take three, four, five days sometimes before they approve you. I mean, you don't realize this when you're opening an account at E-Trade, but they're going through the (26/35)
whole background check. Like there's a warrant for your arrest and you fill out an account, you know, you'll get someone knocking on your door, right? You get arrested like next day. You don't realize they're going through all these checks, you just do it so fast. Well, now they're doing these checks where it's anti-laundering, making sure you're okay. They get, you know, know your customer, KYC, they're doing all this stuff. It used to take like three, now it takes five minutes and less than a day to open up accounts on most platforms, including C-Zero, the one we're going to trade on. So, they say, hey, it'll take up to two days. I mean, we fill in information. You know, I did it and it took about five hours, four hours to go through that whole process and I was up and running. So, you know, try to use those sites, which would be better. I'm sure if you go into Binance US or if you call them, they probably automatically place that in the Binance US account or you might have to (27/35)
transfer it or they transfer it for you. But yes, Binance took all the US investors off, they created Binance US, which is, you know, much smaller. The amount of tokens trading there are not as big as the Binance site, but yeah, you should be able to trade on Binance US with no problem. Kraken as well and Coinbase, and that's where you could buy Ethereum by, I think Coinbase is over 100 now, maybe 120, 130. I don't know how many. I haven't looked probably in a month or two, but yeah, I mean, more issues being able to trade on that and it's cool. You get familiar with it and it's very easy to open an account. Start with a small amount. I mean, that makes sense. Let's go to one more question here. It is from Edith. She goes, hello, Frank. I thought to reach out to you directly is I don't have any knowledge or experience in trading stocks. Would you be able to advise me on how to start? I can only invest $1,000 and cannot afford to lose it. I would forever be grateful and become a (28/35)
prescriber for many years to come. Thank you so much, Edith, prescriber. I don't know if you're a doctor, but if you're going to prescribe drugs to me for many years to come, damn, I might give you a Curzio One membership for free. You could go Adderall, Fentanyl, Vag, or you name it. We've got a partnership there, Edith. I'm in. I have to say I'm joking now because people don't know that and they take that seriously. I'm joking, joking. Just kidding. Everyone's so serious now, but I think you're a subscriber, right? So, a subscriber for many years to come. I can advise you, right? So, if you have $1,000, you can't afford to lose it. I wouldn't put it in the market. You can't afford to lose it. So, I don't care if you buy an S&P 500 Vanguard fund where the fee is like 0.1%, which is very little fee, which I tell a lot of people to buy and purchase. You'll own the top 500 stocks and that has done extremely, extremely well. Over 65 years, I think it's in the 50s when it became 500 and (29/35)
you're looking at 8% average returns annually with dividends, a little bit more than that. Again, you have your ups and downs, but it's been solid. I don't know what the yield is now. Is it 1.7, 1.8, or whatever it is? But yeah, that's the best bet. But at $1,000, if you can't afford to lose it, then I wouldn't go into the market right now. I mean, yeah, that's the best advice I give. I would focus and look at all of our free stuff on our site. And I want to charge you for a newsletter. We probably have the best free content out there. And you get lots of ideas. This podcast is for free. All these podcasts are for free that I'm doing, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We have great interviews. You get lots of stock picks, lots of ideas. You can go to our website now, which is redesigned, which is awesome. So you're seeing content every single day now. It's not just a member site, which it used to be where members go there and they log in. It's becoming a media company now. So there's (30/35)
content on it every day, original content, really, really good. And now we can get outside contributors to participate, hire more people to write more. Now it gets bigger and bigger, provide quotes and stuff like that, and build a whole site. And that's our direction. That's where we're going. And I would focus on that, but yeah, at $1,000, Edith, just be careful. If you can't afford to lose, don't ever put any money in market, you can't really afford to lose. Again, because I don't know where the S&P 500 is going. I'm sure you're not going to get crushed. I wouldn't say you lose more than 20, 30% right away, but either way, you have to be very, very careful. And yeah, I mean, I really wish I could tell you more. Really wish I could tell you more. If you have like $5,000 to invest and you're investing, you say, hey, this is money I put aside or in your 401k, which is long-term and stuff like that, it's different. You put them in certain areas, you can separate even $1,000, you can put (31/35)
100 bucks in 10 different situations. But the key to this is you said you can't afford to lose it. And if you can't afford to lose it, then yeah, I wouldn't even put it in the market. The market is a dangerous place. It's very volatile. And the last thing you want to do is put money in the market and look at it every single minute of every single day, because that means you have too much in a stock or too much in the market. Because if I looked at every single day, I would have sold out all my uranium picks. I would have sold out all my gold picks that I had five, six, seven years ago that have five-year warrants on that all came back in 2019 and stuff like that. I wasn't looking at this until I was like, hey, in five years, I think gold is going to be fine and it'll definitely go higher. And a lot of these stocks have done well, even though gold is kind of crappy right now as a sector. Same with crypto, the ups and downs and uranium I've had, I'm making a lot, a lot of money in (32/35)
uranium, but I've had these things where they sat there for three years, four years and did nothing while the market surged. But I had exposure to other things in the market that did great and I was diversified. So I was saying to my friends in Vancouver, it's gold and silver only and mining and that sector has been so terrible, such a long time outside of a couple of periods. When that cycle changes, it's great. People make a fortune. But otherwise, you're sitting there watching everything else in this market, our markets go crazy, going through the roof and you're sitting there in one sector, you have to be diversified, but saying you can't afford to lose it, I would say don't put it in the market either. So sorry, I couldn't help you more, but start learning as much as you can for when you build up the capital and you want to put it into the market, you could do that by our free site. And there's other good free sites out there too. Just be careful what you read out there. Okay (33/35)
guys, so that's it for me. Again, it's CCI Promo, which is Crypto Intelligence. A great video. It's a short video. I kept it short. I'm sharing my screens with you. Just take a look and you're going to understand why you're going to see the massive upside potential you have in this and some of the gains that you can capture, which are very difficult to capture these days in the market and going forward because of the valuations that come out. But yeah, I think crypto, this is just the beginning and the foundation has been built and there's amazing growth trends, amazing innovations. The contacts I have in this industry have been unbelievable, fantastic, write to me all the time and I thank them all the time. Again, I'm all in on this industry. I love the direction it's going. I'm very happy with the decision I made. I'm very happy for my investors and I want to see you guys make money. And this is a sector that I really, really like going forward for a very, very long time. So like (34/35)
investing in the internet in the early, not early, but mid 1990s and even 2003, four, five, six, when it really started taking off again and all these trends just started getting bigger and bigger and bigger. So really, really cool stuff. Questions, comments, refer to the email at frankkurzyresearch.com. Really appreciate all the support and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream. Let's go out there. It's August 30th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged Vice. We're here to help us end Tell you what's really moving these markets. Happy Hurricane Day Except you live in Florida If you don't live in Florida, hurricanes are like culture here Similar to throwing babies from a 50-story tower in Sallapur village in India and people holding a blanket to catch them It's believed to give their children good luck and a healthy life Talk about a zero-sum game If your baby makes it it's probably gonna be healthy if they miss and don't catch it. It's probably not But that's actually true Look it up Anyway in Florida comes the hurricanes. It gets a little crazy here Once we see it coming it's preparation time. We usually know probably five days out. There's (1/35)
probably gonna hit Florida It looks like gonna hit and then you do the cones and then all the models and you see it all over the place But as we get closer It gets really interesting right say like two days. We're two days out. We know what category it's going to be when hits lands Where it's likely going to hit but a cone right? It's just maybe a little off to the left to the right Our hurricanes they last for a day maybe two And this one's hitting us today on Wednesday expect to be gone in a day You may lose electricity for a few hours, so having a generator smart see lines at Home Depot But you really don't lose electricity for a long time Now I've been through a bunch of hurricane since 2013 two or three of them were pretty big I think one time I lost electricity most of the time is for a few hours. I think once it was for like two days but usually it's a Few hours, especially you know as long as I talk about a category five and it's craziness, right? This is category twos and (2/35)
threes which you know again, which is expected to hit but as I regain approaches People go into like this panic mode They start running to the grocery stores and they pile up on everything to the food water meat Cases and cases and cases not like oh, let's just repair I mean it says it's like a nuclear missile is heading to Florida and you're gonna be in a bunker for a month I mean there's long lines in stores. It's craziness and it's not that bad this time Which makes me think maybe this hurricane again hasn't hit us yet It's gonna hit us Maybe a little worse than expected this time around But it's insane. It's like a frenzy Yeah, people fill up their gas tanks, which you know, I guess I understand you don't wanna be on empty But you don't have to be on full and you have these long lines for gases You know the storm they think is gonna be here for weeks but again it blows in one day blows out I mean if a bunch of trees fall you can't drive all these trees anyway, so that's meaningless (3/35)
And even if they do it's not like yeah, you're in the Keys expecting a category five with a hundred forty mile an hour winds You don't need to top off your gas tank and then also fill up like three gas cans and put them in you know It's like just craziness here like craziness Now Normally during hurricanes everyone inside of Florida and outside of Florida kind of watches the Weather Channel You have these experts like Jim Cantore who my wife loves by the way He always goes into the craziest parts of the hurricane a quick story about Jim Cantore by the way, because my wife really loves him and Every time I watch Tiger Woods, I love watching Tiger Woods. I'm big Tiger Woods fan I love watching play golf my voice always says, you know, why you watch that whenever I'm watching She's over my show. Why are you watching that guy that guy? I hate him. She done his wife and all those girlfriends He's such an ass, but she hates Tiger Woods. I mean I couldn't give a shit about his personal life I (4/35)
just love watching people who are the best at things and he's the best golfer ever. It's entertaining I don't care about his personal life, but Jim Cantore again who she loves and I found this story about two years ago They left his wife of 16 years a few years after she was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease And then he started dating a pretty young journalist at CNN So she mentioned him recently I'm like, why do you like that guy that guy's such an asshole I can't believe look what he did to his wife. It's messed up. She's like shut up. Anyway, that's me my wife's relationship But get back to Jim Cantore you have these big hurricanes and You have you know Cantore a few others They go right in the middle of the storm the very worst areas and report from them right makes seem like the hurricane is a lot worse than it is because They'll show Maybe three of the houses that got hit pretty hard of the 600,000 houses right and they wear this baggy gear and go into the the craziest wind (5/35)
tunnels and they're walking They can't even walk. It's the most windy areas. I don't remember when Those people went a canoe paddling and I think it's on CNN. They showed a few years of how bad is I don't I forgot what hurricane it was even so whatever it was What and the reporter was talking while I was reported talking telling you how bad it was It was someone that walked by like walk next to the canoe and right behind the reporter You saw the water was like less than knee-high and everybody I think they got a lot of shit for that does a weather channel But when you look at hurricanes, it's like this big entertainment factor because you have fear unknowingness, you know the visuals and what's gonna happen and we have canton and The crew reporting from the front lines and they say yeah, we do this curse with professionals. Everybody should be off the streets Like being professional in this field helps you determine when a 50-foot tree is gonna split in half and then go flying through (6/35)
your skull I guess there's a class that teaches you that this guy's getting a little crazy sometimes But hurricanes while common in Florida There's a lot of craziness that goes behind the scenes and I'm sure a lot of people don't live in Florida know about Most time we're cool DeSantis has done a fantastic job when it comes to Preparedness and getting everything ready and making sure everything's cool and closing places I mean there was hurricanes here and I live in Amelia Island that they state they came out and said listen you Have until 12 p.m. To leave not this hurricane different our king one of the bad ones You have the 12 p.m. To leave the island if you don't nobody's coming to rescue you. We're not risking anyone I mean, that's pretty cool and pretty crazy Like we gave you plenty of time to get out of it We told you three days ago if you're not out of there and you call I don't want or whatever We're not coming to get you So they don't mess around right? So there's no It's (7/35)
hitting Tampa. It's gonna be a little craziness I know that they're expecting a cat three by the time it hits lands big storm surges around Tampa Gulf of Mexico and stuff like that I know everyone's watching a couple questions and concerns about it. But uh Well, it's gonna hit us gonna be probably about 60 mile an hour winds, which is pretty crazy I mean I taped some of these hurricanes and 60 miles now you don't realize how crazy 60 mile an hour 120 is insane, but I'm praying for everyone to be safe. Well, a lot of people could be watching on TV Hopefully if electricity goes out not out for long And if it is from our perspective just from logistics, you know, we'll see Wall Street unplug premium We usually tape on Thursday. We might push the Friday We'll see in terms of you know, what's going on here, but just thoughts and prayers go out to everyone There's gonna be a little craziness. Yeah, it's not supposed to be as bad and hit category three, but sometimes you really don't know And (8/35)
I'm just hoping everybody's safe and everybody is okay. But yeah the whole hurricane thing I'm getting used to it cuz I call myself already now in 13 years and You know most of the time it's a little more crazy than it leads on to be and what you've seen on TV and hopefully That is the case this time. Although I did go shopping last night to get Our normal shopping stuff and I realized like oh man, it's gonna be crowded and everything's gonna be out It was crowded is in Jacksonville was definitely crowded But they had a lot of stuff in and I heard it wasn't too bad on the island either which I don't know again makes me a little nervous because usually everything is out out of stock and everybody's going crazy the Fact that they're not I'm hoping that doesn't mean that it's gonna be worse than it is But we'll see who report accordingly and hope everybody stays safe out there. Let's get to the markets a few big stories The first is Bitcoin Hey the appellate court side of grayscale That's (9/35)
in a lawsuit against the SEC against the SEC guys But the SEC denied grayscales applications to converge grayscale Bitcoin trust into an ETF And a decline it because it was political I publicly motivated but now At the court side of a grayscale this all but assures that Bitcoin ETFs are coming and they're probably gonna come sooner than expected Now why is this a big deal You have fidelity BlackRock arc Invesco wisdom tree when you talk about management firms with trillions of assets of the management All filing to launch their own Bitcoin ETFs And if you look at the news Bitcoin surge over 7% this happened on Tuesday Being all crypto related companies higher than stock market coinbase. Everything surged about freaking time considering It's been a really dead market for a few months now very exciting for a while And for us as you know, we're expecting this news and these approvals Twice it's a great time to come into our crypto intelligence newsletter, which got its ass kicked like (10/35)
everything else in crypto We did unbelievably before that, but it's been a bad 12 18 months FTX 2022 is a nightmare Came back a little bit in 2023 you could say that for Bitcoin and aetherium, but not so much for the top 50 or so Cryptos, which are good names good technologies still down 70% plus from their highs and now's the time Now's a great time to get in with a lot of good stuff going on But this is significant news because Bitcoin ETFs guys It's just the beginning I Mean you're looking at grayscale pro shares bitwise and Vanek These are just at a few large asset managers who filed for aetherium ETFs, which you don't hear about often it's always Bitcoin ETFs and Once these start to get approved it's gonna lead to active crypto ETFs passive crypto ETFs gaming crypto ETFs DeFi crypto ETFs smart beta ETFs blah blah blah keep going and going That's why it's a big deal because if you really look at the ETF Evolution over the past 20 years and the impact it's had to the overall (11/35)
markets. I mean the numbers are incredible I think just the last 10 years We had 2300 ETFs now. We have 5700 and if an ETF for like anything a leverage robotics AI with whatever I Mean there's an ETF for everything Every single thing. It's incredible Be looking at assets that went from 1.2 trillion in 2010 to 6.7 trillion today It was over 7 trillion 7.5. I believe last year markets come down This is across the US and Europe, but they make close to 40% of the total US equity volume last year That's how big this is and that's what crypto is about what are people worried about? I don't feel like open up a wallet. I got to worry about everything I mean this comes on top of coinbase just being one of the first institutions where they're gonna allow custody Which is huge These are the necessary steps that have to be taken in order for crypto to thrive and making it easier fidelity launching their platform with Paradigm Citadel and Schwab Schwab and fidelity alone 70 million accounts that (12/35)
Could have access to crypto not all of them are gonna buy crypto, but now you see The liquidity there you make it an easier for people where they can go to their brokerage firm And it's very easy to purchase this stuff now or through their ETFs and have an allocation and people Want it they want it and they should want it Crypto Is here to stay I keep telling everybody listen for 30 years. I mean mostly small caps throughout my whole entire career managing risk You're not gonna see a better setup in any sector when it comes to risk reward or better opportunities in crypto Could you lose your money? Absolutely? But the reward is someplace where you can get 50 X 100 X a thousand X and this isn't cherry picking like a Microsoft from You know 25 years ago. This is like the top 60 70 tokens look at their performance from when they started in a five-year period and When they peaked this is like the whole in this is this industry is still in its infancy The technologies a token ization is a (13/35)
reason why every bank is launching their own blockchain. So they're gonna tokenize our assets Why would you tokenize assets? Well, there's 16 trillion worth of illiquid assets. That's bonds. That's Real estate and imagine token izing them now you make them liquid you could sell off pieces to individual investors or Institutions and make it easy because the blockchains are gonna talk to each other and there's companies that are doing that within crypto to make that easy Without forming bridges and worrying about getting hacked and things like that And that's what SPACs wall about right? You guys should know that by now It's just a matter SPACs are so big because hey, it allows the insiders in these private companies To go to the shell company make them private instead of waiting seven to ten years for a liquidity period now you have a couple months These pipe deals all the insiders get out. You can only do that in a bull market Where you could bullshit the retail investor and come out (14/35)
of these insane valuations and allow the insiders to get out That's a shitty way of doing it. But what if there's a legit way of doing it? I mean they did it where they inflated the valuations now, what do you have you have SPACs down 90% sitting with hundreds of millions of dollars in cash on a balance sheet that they raised at a much much higher valuation And the stock is shit because the structure is garbage. They can't sell out of it There's not enough volume all these guys 40 50% of the flow in at zero So even though it was 11, even if it's a dollar now, it goes at 30 cents They're still gonna sell 30 cents because they're gonna make 30x who cares about the retail investor, but this isn't about that This is about having these assets and it's important you want to have access to your money if you're in commercial real estate You know in a hundred million dollars commercial real estate And you're sitting there it makes sense for you to sell off a piece of that. Let me sell 20% (15/35)
Alright, I'll get 20 million now the rest of that could trade as a stock Or shares rights tokenized now anyone could own Commercial real estate. It's good for me. I just got a 20 million dollar check So I'm liquid I could buy more commercial real estate and do this and even more It's great for everybody else because now I could say hey This is gonna pay a 7 to 8 percent yield on their on the rental income that I'm generating Now you have access to a great asset that who has access to commercial real estate as a retail investor or smaller investor you don't checks off all the boxes You got more people out there more liquidity. That's more pricing more competition. That's great. That's great for pricing. That's awesome. That's what you want That's what tokenization is but a lot of this is around. This is what we did when the first company ever tokenize our company Been a little slow to develop but now Larry think Black rock just said that's the next biggest Revolution is tokenization. He (16/35)
just said this is a few months ago. That's the next biggest thing after ETFs That's the next biggest thing. That's what he said. He should know a little bit Forget about the politics and stuff like that guys were powerful people in the world controls almost every major company It's insane the whole ESG thing Wow Everybody jumped on board of that in the corporate world But all good news for crypto it's been you know, just as crazy period but this is an area that everyone should have exposure to And crypto is here. It's not going anywhere this see try to stop it again politically motivated Closing crypto banks where there's no evidence of fraudulent activities like it's silver bank and signature all bullshit They said before I never saw a better risk reward for an asset class than crypto And you can lose your money in it, but the upside is unbelievable That's why it deserves a place in everyone's speculative portfolio The upside on this stuff is incredible and you don't have that upside (17/35)
in the stock market all the time Unless you see a massive crash or unless you're an insider you get founder shares But most of the time when you're buying an IPO, it's coming out of crazy valuation guys a really crazy valuation You might get lucky and maybe 5x your money or 7 8 you're not gonna get 20x 50x These are gains that you don't see in the stock market believe in cover 30 years When they it's rare what here it's common to see 50x games in crypto It's common, but again, you have to be careful if know you're doing you're gonna be risking money I'm not saying put all your speculative money, but it deserves a place in your portfolio and everyone's portfolio who are seeking risk so I'm happy for grayscale It's a big win for all these companies. I mean not the FTX's and fraudulent players out there If all the guys doing the right thing playing by the rules talk to the SEC for years and make sure they would be Compliant and the SEC just turns around and goes against them all of a (18/35)
sudden out of nowhere I mean come on with the politics and the bullshit's terrible It's really good for grayscale great for the industry great for crypto second story is Best buys earnings. I think that was a big deal The reporter on Tuesday beat expectations the stock popped 5% or so But Best buy Best Buy is just a great company. I mean, it's well managed if you look back in history a Name pure play electronic retails almost every single one has gone bankrupt every one of them CompUSA crazy Eddie Radio Shack Circuit City computer city tweeter the whiz I Remember all those shops. Holy cow None of those guys could get it right Best Buy got it, right? Instead Of fighting remember the whole big-box retail on online's killing them in pricing and stuff like that They partnered with Amazon set down both CEOs and said hey, let's do this for our businesses better. It's great It's like Amazon's hardware to a lot of these Consumers and retailers it makes sense creating geek squad, which is a (19/35)
super high-margin business a lot of people It's hard to put it see you know difficult is but a flat-screen TV on a wall. I Mean it's not difficult, but if you do it wrong get done Things falling off the wall now you got to pay for a new TV The wall is gonna cost you a lot of money gonna shoot rock the whole thing up again And you want to get that done professionally and professionally with the wires where you don't see them and everything and then not only that More importantly I would say 95% of people set up their TVs wrong In terms of the specs and the distance away and a sound surround sound how far that is that that's an art That's not easy to do making sure they'll look at the brightness of your room What room is in every room has different brightness of course when you go to Best Buy? It's 8k beautiful, but that's on something That's an 8k shot and notice that that TV is gonna be in a dark place That's why it looks like that That's not gonna look like that at your house and most (20/35)
stuff is not 8k stuff is just barely 4k now when you have content But they're able to do all this and look at the lighting and put in those guys are really smart The great logistics they start a price match in a while ago, and just always on the ball listen You know it hasn't been roses I mean earnings per share fell by 20% sales down 7% but they beat the numbers they beat on earnings also beat on margins Stock popped about 5% it was like $77 was down 10% over the past three weeks or so heading into this quarter It was around 85 or so so expectations were kind of low And I don't blame them when you see some of these retailers getting annihilated like Dick's Pointing good down 30% Footlocker getting smoked Also down 30 35% I mean you can't blame people going wow you know I'm looking at Taiwan freaking exports are down 30% 25% it's horrible You go into Best Buy's now. You're not seeing a lot of traffic in there I've been in there past couple weeks few times and it's old also Hard to find (21/35)
somebody that's working there. It's gonna help you. It's not as many people so they're cutting costs Which I guess they need to do But still despite all that a dollar 22 in earnings 16 cents better than expected 9.6 billion in sales Holy shit for the quarter I Mean that's pretty good Also issued inline guidance which everybody Yeah, that's the measure if you're lowering guidance. You're gonna get nailed in this environment I mean even if you report strong guidance now I mean stocks are so inflated a lot of those names haven't gone up They went up a little bit and then came back down like Nvidia Actually had a good day on Tuesday And you're looking at all these results from Best Buy an environment where consumer spending electronics is down you look at it what headsets Who's buying? You know mobile phones who's buying TVs smart home devices with housing PCs holy cow clearly slowing good management team good results good good stock That doesn't translate over into every business. We have (22/35)
five a lower point tonight. I'm just see what they say That's the ultimate consumer discretionary stock And everything they sell in there is completely useless But they do it kind of reminds me of snapchat like if you send the person a text and read it it disappears That's kind of what you buy something five below the value is gone the second you walk out the store But people buy stuff my daughter's buy stuff in there. I'm like oh here we go and They made it work good for them. I'm not making fun of it, but still hey They make it work on people, but you know nothing in there is a necessity You know there's nothing and nothing in there to the sesame nothing nothing But good for them that models work But I want to see not really with the report more poorly what they say about the state of consumer Because that demographic that goes in there, and yeah, maybe it's a little bit younger But the demographic is very they're very big spenders between if you're looking at 20 Year-olds to 30 year (23/35)
olds again. I don't want to put it in the gen Z gen whatever I'm saying that that's a grip that they spend a lot of money You know if you go up to like 35 years old, but remember student loans Gonna have to start paying that and I think there was a survey that came out 60 65 percent like can't afford to pay that Right now for three years. It was paused So what does that mean a lot of bills credit cards? They're looking at credit cards in that demographic. Did you see it? I mean? Holy cow Delinquencies higher than they weren't 2008 you're looking at rates higher than they've ever been record highs for credit cards I mean you're taking that group and taking them out of The spending right that the the the US spending circle at total addressable market And those guys gonna get hurt a ton and it's a lot of businesses And that's the foot lockers right that goes right into the foot lockers It's a lot of different businesses you have to be very very careful of retail and those guys are (24/35)
significantly cutting back It's much different from that demographic, then you're looking from 35 to say 50 Who are doing okay? They still have some money? They're spending a little bit Even the high even in China if you look at China. I mean it's not a big demographic, but the high end is doing okay it's It's back to pre pandemic levels Everything else is shit, but it's certain demographics, but now you have to look at companies that fit inside these demographics Because there's a big difference between a 25 year old compared to the 40 year old 45 year old There's a big difference in spending and that filters down to a lot of different companies So now I made fun of them Made fun of five below you know stocks gonna pop like 40% tomorrow. I write my face funny I hope it does for shareholders really nothing against them But we also got some interesting names reporting later in the week right Campbell soup Hormel Yeah, those guys do usually in the safe environment. Those are better names (25/35)
the safer names have done terribly Tight machinery is reporting like to see report on those guys Broadcom Dell Lululemon Lemons one of the greatest brands in the world they could take yoga pants and punch holes in them with a hole puncher and Someone's gonna pay a hundred bucks for it. They'll sell from you that that brand is like unbelievable unbelievable We're just gonna spend and spend and spend every time I go to my girls love it people online all the time I mean it really is a great great company in a loyal brand. It's awesome See what they have to say I don't know if that's a good gauge of the state of consumer cuz man. I think it's like tattoos in Florida It's like people will use the last 150 dollars they have to go get a tattoo Good gauge of spending is gonna spend on that no matter what but I'm interested to see that report high expectations going in But outside of that what period are we in because earning season relatively over? Jackson Hole is done Powell said his piece (26/35)
more hikes lightly we likely we still see a little inflation the markets My questions what's gonna drive stocks higher from here you need catalyst because we're at a high valuation you need catalyst to drive it higher If you don't have catalyst probably if you're cheap, maybe you you know you go a little bit higher and whatever But when you're we're trading at a very expensive Valuation consider where interest rates are and consider the earnings aren't growing year over year that down 400% euro via this quarter third trade quarter negative earnings growth Unique catalyst is gonna be China tried lowering rates low taxes on trades Giving country garden a 40-day grace period for upcoming bond maturities. I don't you read that It worked for like a minute. I mean stocks pop and then you know they sold off a little bit There's a lock on in China guys. We're reporting to you for I mean you're looking at across the board ETFs markets are down 10 12 percent in August in China, and we've been (27/35)
warned about that for a while guys You should have been ahead of that Still see a lot of pain ahead. Let's see but the risk separation my cows probably gonna do okay You're gonna gamble them out of what the high-end isn't as bad Doesn't mean everything China's terrible, but most of it is but are we gonna see growth from there I don't know we're gonna see from Europe where Just said that you know you're his own Europe they look at a raise rates further control inflation so Trading levels s to be trading around 50-day, which everyone is watching right now, and then we're heading it to September which is The worst month for stocks historically, and this is data going back 75 years interesting facts here So in September we post negative returns 56% of the time and to put that in perspective September is the only month of the year to average a negative return We show positive returns every other month going back in history except for September So now you know September we're gonna go up 30% (28/35)
cuz I said that But seriously you're going into a month, and it's like a low right so we got the holiday weekend coming There's not a lot going on September you're right in between earning season and everyone's like oh You know cautious you do that the Apple event coming out, but you know what are they gonna say? I mean do you really need I mean give it away to 14 for free that you know there's a company. That's why I see Yeah, just with Apple and everything else is separate There's clear separation guys between what's going on with meta and Google and those stocks are surging compared to everything else Apple's catching a little bit of a bid because they're gonna come out with their whole you know Presentation and everything that's in a couple weeks and watching the new phone and stuff their events. That's fine, but what a difference I mean Tesla. You know Tesla's been shit apples been selling off Netflix yeah, it's been okay, but not like meta and Google I mean that's what I'm seeing (29/35)
this market lots of disconnects when it comes to stocks and valuations That's both sides like some stocks that are really expensive They should be like why own Apple and Microsoft here when you could own Nvidia at the same multiple And if V is growing earnings expected to grow earnings over the next two years by 50% and sales by 30% annually over the next two years Apple and Microsoft are barely growing and trading at the same multiple you choose what you want I mean, I think one of two things has to happen either Nvidia is gonna take off which we saw on Tuesday and Outperform these guys or Apple Microsoft are gonna come down a lot. Maybe Nvidia kind of stays here, but that that's a disconnect to me And the reason why it's trying to say multiples because they put up Unbelievable earnings second quarter in a row so that confirms it Couple of things that that people are worried about where it's China big exposure to China What's gonna go on politics something that can't control also? (30/35)
What they saw in sales and the increase of sales And this is unusual because usually when you have a massive increase in sales And this is the biggest increase of sales we've ever seen in history the last two quarters seriously It's that's never happened history markets by that amount in these two quarters each of those quarters We've never seen that much of a guy higher quarter of a quarter ever but usually when you see that guys what do you see usually see expenses go higher expenses didn't go higher and Not that that's a red flag, but it means That They really really up those prices on the chips which is confirmed by their margins beating estimates and When you're doing that it's you could do that right now because you're the king of the mountain You have the chip that everybody wants, but man There's a lot of competition coming and that's the reason do I have to pay 70 you know 70% margins these guys are making Do I have to pay that much? Because for Apple Google Microsoft all (31/35)
those guys big balance sheets hey Let's take 10 billion off the balance sheet of the next 20 whatever not even twice more like five years in Spending and let's stop building this stuff because this is getting ridiculous right now, and that's they're all doing they build their own chips But so when I'm looking at that company I see those three I would say why you know How could you own Apple Microsoft over in video right now? And that's what happens when you have a surge in earnings and their stock price didn't really go up too much It was a five whatever 50 and came all the way down I had a good day on Tuesday, but still it's trading at like 29 20 times for what earnings That's in line with Apple and Microsoft. I'd rather own video here than those two based on valuation and growth Which is what drive stocks usually? Seeing similar examples of disconnects in other sectors, that's a Tomorrow's new recommendations gonna come from Dan I gotta break down a few sectors and under the radar (32/35)
stocks that are likely going start getting some attention That's in Wall Street Club premium our premium service Which is $10 a month and you also get access to a dollar stock Club newsletter where we recommend the stock every single week Get lots of compliments on and it's cool, and that's a podcast only available It's not on iTunes or anything else get sent to you directly, and we're in a process of building an app Almost at that first version right now, which you know coming soon, hopefully But right now that gets sent to you, and you can listen to it That's an awesome podcast we have it's much much more detailed more ideas Stock picks and things like that and really breaking stuff down and and we go anywhere with that newsletter even crypto sometimes And who knows that's where might go not tomorrow, but maybe next week. We'll see a Lot of those sectors. I mean you look at large cap telecoms Verizon upgraded by city Utilities a little bit catching a bid right the Fed stocks is (33/35)
largely underperformed nobody wants them When you have technology going up 30% for the year, but it's changing even biotech starting to get a little bit in favor some names It's a lot going on the next couple of weeks to be prepared come out with night recommendation Wall Street flood premium tomorrow And Dan I'm gonna break all this down for you in the meantime enjoy the day in Florida Listen stay safe from the hurricane seriously. It's poking fun. I did a little joking around before and hopefully it's not as bad You know we're on the other side But you know those floods and storm surges are real and you know in Tampa and they hit pretty bad Hopefully a lot of them evacuated. They're gonna be okay, and hopefully the hurricane is not gonna be too bad and get through this You know and be safe, but seriously be safe with you and your family. Hopefully everything's okay We'll see on our end how things are like Jersey and stuff like that So we may have to push Wall Street on plug premium (34/35)
back a day, which is secondary to everything else that I just said But just letting you guys know, but either way we're gonna report to you hopefully tomorrow if not by Friday And I'll see you guys then take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry the information Presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests you should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast Remember it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there. It's February 2nd I think or just a Wall Street of a pocket swear back that headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Believe it or not. I Have another great interview Set up today and it's with Scotland the founder and CEO of masterworks So you heard him mention masterworks this week. They're sponsoring Wall Street unplugged You know, I don't have a lot of sponsors very rarely have sponsors actually on this podcast Unlike every other podcast in the world. So when I do it's only for companies. I fully support Companies I use their products or their platforms And companies that I trust But Scott and I go back about two years I interviewed him on this podcast in believe it was 2021 and He just launched his platform like a year earlier that tokenizes (1/35)
contemporary art And this is art that's usually only available the ultra wealthy right by these big art pieces put in house But he found a way to bring this to everyday people My own pop investors to invest in this amazing asset class, right? They did it by tokenization, which you all should be familiar with at least right? That's what we did with Curzio research and tokenization is selling a piece of an asset so a vest got fractional ownership and why would you do that because sometimes a private company or sometimes a real estate commercial real estate project it's It's a liquid asset and when it's a liquid asset It's hard to basically, you know, your money could be locked up over a certain time So say if you have a commercial asset and it's worth like a hundred million dollars So now you can sell 20 million of that to individual investors now individual investors for the first time They don't have to own the whole hundred million dollars But just like a stock they'll have fractional (2/35)
ownership participate and how that commercial property does over time It's great for the person who's selling it because now you're bringing the check sell 20% 20 million dollars right to yourself Which means you're liquid now you can use that money to actually build up that real estate portfolio even more commercial real estate It's great for individual investors Like I say you have a chance to earn commercial or to own commercial real estate a fraction of it for the first time ever Right. It's a great asset. So it checked every single box, which is why we did it Right, and it's just a market that I think is no doubt eventually gonna take off We launched ours in 2018 19 Very very early to party then we had COVID a decline that we had the whole SPAC revolution and stuff and people loving SPACs now you're seeing people get more back in this organization So Scott and I have a lot in common where we did this early on Now in the case of artwork of what he's doing masterworks. I thought (3/35)
this idea was fascinating back then So I wasn't surprised when these guys I think it was October November 2021. There is $100 million. Gave it a valuation over a billion and Which put them in a class of almost every company that would public be a SPAC in 2021 2022 right at least in mid by mid 2022 and everybody jumped on the bandwagon I'm glad that they didn't because you see them come out crazy valuations and a lot of them crashed 80 90 percent a lot of them seen slower growth, but In masterworks case the growth that they've seen even since then has been nothing short of spectacular, right? Which Scott's gonna tell you about in a minute? I like Scott. He's a no-nonsense guy. He's great. He's brilliant as a marketing background Again, it's gonna talk about but I think you gotta find the interview fascinating several reasons One is it's giving you access to a new alternative asset class Which is something that outperforms and out for the market over a long period of time, but more (4/35)
importantly it's a Great asset or a great place to invest a portion of your money, right? So diversify into we have crazy markets like the one way right now, which we're all seeing right? It's crazy Even we know the Fed just came out they raised that market was down percent that it goes up 2% Okay, just to see the valuations going with the Fed actually maintaining and saying okay, we're gonna continue to raise rates We've seen demand fall off a cliff and stocks keep going higher even though their earnings are going lower It's a recipe for disaster. Then as I can go up another 15 20 percent for me. I have no idea What's gonna do I just know the shit's gonna hit the fan's probably happen sooner than people think and what it does It's not gonna be pretty right It's just the fundamentals aren't there for the market to be continued to go high We all know that but let's see the algos are doing what they want to do right now, but it's crazy market And this is providing an alternative asset (5/35)
class for you. Just like I talked about crypto. It's like I talk about other different things, right? and the metaverse so Without further ado. Here's my interview. Hope you like it master works founder CEO Scott Lynn Scott Thanks so much for coming back on Wall Street unplugged Thanks for having me back excited excited to be here I guess it's it's been over a year now. It has been over a year and let's do a little refresher, right? so you found a CEO of masterworks and Why don't you? Refresh everyone who didn't listen to that past interview He's not been following you about masterworks the history how you came up with the idea of a tokenizing fine art, which is fantastic We've done that with our company tokenizing tokenization as well but How did you come up with that idea because now you're bringing a sector and an asset class To a market that never really had access to it right with individual investors explain that you just came up with this idea Yeah, it's good. It's a good (6/35)
question. So masterworks now is I guess we're four and a half years old We have seven hundred thousand investors on the platform. We have nearly a billion dollars in a um The idea really started I mean I've been starting technology companies for 20 years now and I've also been collecting art along the way So I've seen the value of my own collection grow and the genesis of the idea of my masterworks It's really taking a look at my own personal art collection and saying hey How can I securitize this and make this asset class available to anyone who wants to invest in it? The the really interesting thing about the art market and contemporary art just broadly Is that the most investable segment of the art market are really paintings above a million dollars and those those tend to be the the Artworks that have the most predictable appreciation rates. So interestingly the asset class inherently Historically has only been available to those who have enough money to buy those paintings which (7/35)
obviously is very very few people So our view is that it should be an asset class that is securitized and made available To anyone who wants to to invest in in these works of art So art has normally been a recession proof market I think is fair to say I was You bring up the fact last 26 years in performed tons of asset classes, right when comes a real estate stock market and things like that How have you performed over the last year and a half right? We had marked conditions You know just challenging mark conditions challenging mark conditions going into the future But it seems like with the numbers that you just gave me a billion dollars in platform 700,000 people that Things are going well. You guys are still growing Yeah, I mean we're definitely still growing so last year a UN doubled I think our user account our user account doubled now There's there's no question that I think performance of art overall has softened I think the question is how much is it softened? So if you look at (8/35)
our performance specifically last year on a gross basis our portfolio was up about seven point eight percent and In context with prior years that that's actually way down So we you know in prior years our portfolios been up more than 20% on a gross basis. So Definitely a down year but but compared to really any other asset class. It's still incredible. I think You know that performance is second only to to energy last year So, you know, we feel we feel really good about it I think I think art has performed if you look at data from like the late 70s and into the early 80s In prior inflationary times art has performed really well during those periods Today obviously is just kind of a new animal and there's there's lots of different Complexities of trying to figure out that the global economy in today's world, but but the portfolio is still still holding up pretty well So remember the last time we spoke this is October 2021 I believe it and you just raised money right put sure that I (9/35)
think it was over a little bit over a hundred million dollars Put your valuation over a billion Congratulations, by the way, which is fantastic Remember you saying that the average investor puts? Around five thousand dollars in initially and then thirty thousand over the lifetime have those numbers change. Have you seen More demand from that asset class or are you seeing? You know Maybe some of the ultra wealthy right who goes with Christie's and Sotheby's and things like that Start using your platform and saying hey, this might be a better idea than going just straight to auction Yeah, we don't really see that So our typical investor is not in our world person our typical investor is definitely Someone who knows knows close to nothing about art is looking to learn about the asset class for the first time Is looking to generate and generate non correlated returns as part of the overall portfolio. They're they're really just a You know typical a typical investor looking at an (10/35)
alternative asset class so that that is still our bread-and-butter investor today I think if our number was $5,000 a year and a half ago, it's it's roughly $6,000 today. So maybe that's that's come up slightly But yeah I mean we we encourage investors to get started at a very small allocation of their portfolio and then to grow over time And almost always we see investors starting out at a very small number and then growing on a monthly quarterly basis after that So talk about how the platform works because I know that and when I'm looking at it here, you know You have a great learning center. I probably lots of questions and things like that, but talk a little bit how this works So I want to buy a painting that's selling say for a million dollars and I you know, it's fractional ownership I'm gonna buy a small piece of it What happens when it's sold? How do you monitor how it's appreciating it is it appreciating where people willing to pay more for that just like a stock, right? You're (11/35)
selling off piece of a stock and it's a fractional ownership Yeah, how does that whole market work behind the scenes for someone that that's looking to do this and invest for the first time? Yeah, so maybe let's start really high level and think about kind of just our process and how we find paintings that we think are Investable in the art market. So we have mess work says about 215 employees now we have a research team of 14 people and that research team is primarily responsible for understanding What segments the art market do we think are most investable? So we look at a whole bunch of data around how different artists markets are performing How how different segments of the art market are trending and we basically come up with Certain artists markets or certain sub segments those markets that we think are most investable So our research team identifies those segments and then and then basically hands that off to our acquisitions team Which is a team of another dozen people roughly (12/35)
who then go into those artists markets and basically source Work today from over 2,000 intermediaries. So we're offered now is the biggest buyer in the art market. We're offered I think six seven hundred million dollars in art a month So really an incredible volume of art and then we're buying a small fraction of that So that's that's kind of the investment process in terms of deciding what paintings do we buy? Once we purchase the painting we file We put it into a Delaware LLC and we file that with the SEC as a registered public up public offering Once the SEC qualifies the offering we saw shares in the painting Investors buy those shares and then after the offering closes the painting starts trading on our secondary market So just like you can buy shares in Google and then trade shares in Google You can buy shares in an individual painting and then trade shares in an individual painting Eventually, the painting will will be sold and when the painting is sold those proceeds are (13/35)
distributed to shareholders So that's that's the very high level concept of the of the business and how it works That's amazing because it's for me that creates a high barrier of entry right I mean It's going to the SEC making sure the security which Leads to my next question because it seems the hardest part is getting the platform second into trading everything done, right? Now you have data analytics behind with art But is it just art because I notice on your site when you go into the learning sector You also have crypto and NFTs. I'm not too sure if you're selling NFTs or cryptos, but the fact that you go into The SEC might just answer my question there but Yeah, yeah, that's so that learning centers just kind of like very broad content on anything related to art and investing But but yeah, we we are strictly focused on our we don't do anything crypto We often get the question of how do we think about classic cars? How do we think about trading cards? You know, the reality is like (14/35)
my background is in art our senior team's background really is an art I think at the end of the day these asset classes are very complicated very hard to understand The art market's incredibly complex on its own. So I don't really see us ever going into other asset classes So, how do you achieve the growth rate? I think it's I think you said so 1.7 Billion dollar market. So, you know, a lot of people will branch out uber now is uber eats uber everything, right? So, how would you branch out because what I do see with NFTs and again, it's very hard Especially when you go into the SEC registered these paintings as security With that said open sees was doing a billion a month. They're still doing on a low end 200 300 million dollars a month It seems like you know, the younger market right there might be the demographic but how do you achieve growth? This is just taking more of that total addressable market and more marketing like you're doing and just get more people to the platform (15/35)
Because you know, obviously to increase that total addressable market sometimes maybe you have to venture out of paintings Yeah, so so so the the market that total asset class size is 1.7 trillion not not 1.7 billion so it's It's slightly slightly slightly different. But yeah, see it's a huge market, right? So it's it's estimated that roughly 60 billion dollars in art sells every year half of that is a public auction. So you have you know, you know, you have a huge Transaction volume in the asset class overall So I think from our perspective to go from 1 billion in aum to 2 billion 2 billion to 4 billion Is not that hard so that that's really just what we're focused on at the moment And the assets of the management for my curiosity because I'm fascinated by this So the assets of management is that actually in some of the artwork or some people may sell it Leave the money there and wait for something else to come along and is it kind of like a money market account or how does That's (16/35)
very interesting to me Yeah, so we do have we do have money we do have like money market account account equivalent So you can open a masterworks wallet and keep cash in the wallet But our aum numbers are just just for the art specifically. Oh cool. Cool. So AI data analytics, I mean chat gbt now is is is massive and now it's mainstream It's everywhere but are you using these things because you said I was surprised to see how big your research team is where it looks Like you really do due diligence on the paintings that that are best to put in front of your audience if that's right to say Where they had the most price appreciation potential is a lot of data analytics behind that AI or is it just hey We're hiring experts that really know their stuff within this industry Yeah, you know, I think the problems in the art world are slightly different than problems in other other industries So the challenge with the art world Frankly is that it's it's operated the same way for centuries So if (17/35)
you look at sotheby's which is one of the top two auction houses sotheby's is 275 years old It was the oldest company on the the new york stock exchange before before going private a couple years ago So, I mean this industry has literally been around for centuries and from a data perspective. There's there's never really been a great Clean data set that you can easily access to understand What prices paintings have sold for historically, etc So part of our problem separate from our research team is that we have a large data collection team Of one to two dozen people that are just manually collecting data On different things in the art market all the time. So our research team can actually analyze it but when it comes to to AI You know, we use basic machine learning models within our research team to try to predict where our prices are going for each of these artist markets In conjunction with with those data sets, but you know, we're still we're still in the early innings of of doing (18/35)
that with with this as asset class When I conduct interviews 15 years I always go back and find out as much information as possible because I like to do my homework, right? And I noticed that the marketing background I think I might have talked about this last time I interviewed you How important was that to establish this company because at the end of the day you could have the greatest idea But if you're not marketed correctly and tokenization again something that we've done with our cut with a few ever Where we sold off a piece of our company and people could buy shares in it and they actually have an actual equity ownership in our business But that's not the easiest story to tell everyone How are you able to tell this story where I see you guys everywhere? I see you guys advertising I see people talking about even social media not from you three advertisers people are talking about your work How much did your marketing background help with that? Because again tokenization is not (19/35)
the easiest story to tell everybody I think I mean look I think that's a really great question. I think it's a it's a very hard problem because I tend to I tend to take marketing problems and break them down into two different categories. One is one is um, sort of of Marketing problems where there's pre-existing intent and that's a typical easy marketing problem, right? Like if i'm selling shoes there's pre-existing intent for people to buy shoes I can go to google and I can buy the keyword um, you know some type of shoe and like that's an easy marketing problem to solve the hard marketing problems to solve are our Marketing problems where there's no intent where you have to build intent and the reality is today for masterworks 99.9 of people do not know that they can invest in art. They don't know how to invest in art They don't know how it works So we're really telling that story for the first time so I think you're right. I mean, I think these businesses early on are are largely (20/35)
marketing problems So so my background in marketing has been been really helpful with that, but it's it's still a challenge every every day No, I appreciate you sharing that right. It's always a challenge with marketing No matter how good you are at it. I think right you could always feel like you can market better It's kind of like golf right if you shoot a 59, you know There's no perfection in marketing Just there's no perfection The only sport I know where the better you get the more angry you get it yourself. So, uh, yeah marketing marketing's the same way Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. So, uh, What's the next step for you? Uh, i'm very very happy because again, I follow you guys. Uh, We've interviewed each other i've interviewed you, uh, you know a while ago over a year ago Uh, and we saw the whole spack revolution, right? So you raise money you have investors in there I mean, what are the intentions because you have the platform that's growing that makes sense That's in the right (21/35)
areas Uh, I would expect it and i'm glad you didn't do this back because the way they set up specs Uh, you could see why they're all getting crushed with the valuations they come in It's all fun and games until you know, you have a weaker market and even the good names right have come down tremendously But what are your plans? I mean your valuation I would think it probably came down like everybody else is a little bit You know in in the whole market in private markets But what are your plans because I could see this being a publicly traded company a publicly traded platform Uh, and you have the revenue you have the users you have the growth there It seems like it checks off all the boxes. But what are the plans? What's the end goal? Yeah, I mean I think I think is a you know as a founder CEO You always have to think about what the exit is I think for us the the the obvious exit is at some point to take the business the business public I still think we're we're far away from that today (22/35)
Um, you know if I think about the opportunity really high level It's just that when you look at art as an asset class historically, it's outperformed public equities It has a low correlation to other asset classes It deserves a role in every investor's portfolio in some way some way shape or form But there's never there's never been a way to invest in it and one of the the good things I guess about All of the macro dynamics I was I was telling this company at the beginning of the year Is that when we look back at the 700 000 investors who have signed up on the platform? Uh over the past whatever three plus years You know, it feels really good to know that many of those people that invested in art Over the past couple years have done much better than if they would have invested in public equities So I think we we really are creating value for investors on a daily basis And I think I think we're just in the very early innings of that, right? Like we we just want to take this asset class (23/35)
which performs better than most and has really good Uh characteristics and make it make it investable for for everyone It's also a tough compare with today's society where people want to get rich tomorrow the equity markets how volatile they are right social media and everything so When it comes to even marketing you might be like is but what is is I don't want to say the most expensive piece of probably the best piece that you sold where I think that would drive so much Traffic where hey, this is on a platform right now. You could own a piece of this, right? What was one of those pieces where you're like, wow, this is great. This is on our platform right now Maybe over the past six months to a year Yeah, I mean we you know, there's there's been so many artist markets that that have done Well over the past two or three years I think it's everything from I mean the bangxi market has just really been on fire the past couple years Um, you know that has slowed recently, but there's an (24/35)
artist named barkley hindrix This market's up 300 plus but I you know, if you take a step back I think the important thing to understand about art is that in general most of these artist markets do not accelerate Incredibly rapidly, right? Like most of them are sort of stable predictable markets The boscie market's a great example of that which is appreciated anywhere between 16 and 18 percent for the past 25 years Um, that's kind of a a stable You know more stable over performing artist market so that's the great thing about the asset class is you can find some of these artist markets which sort of Predictably appreciate without taking too much risk, but it's definitely not like enough teas or crypto where You know, you're gonna make a hundred percent in a year, but you could also Lose 50 of your money. It's it's it's not that sort of asset class no, so next steps where Going public maybe in the future you want to be able to grow a little more, uh, which is great But just to see how (25/35)
far you've come is pretty remarkable. It's got serious. I'm not saying that I'm not you know, just you know, trying to catch your ass or anything But it is remarkable because against an industry I truly believe in is what we do with our company when it comes to tokenization to see how far you've taken it uh There's not like this hype around like crypto or things like that. I mean, it's a real company It's growing people that use your service all love it Uh, it's just pretty fascinating to see how far you've come and i'm looking forward to see the next steps over the next Year or two. So, uh with that said if someone wants to learn more obviously go to masterworks.com Get in touch with you But any other ways of social media platforms or anything else because i'm sure when people listen to this They're going to be uh, definitely interested in learning more about your company Yeah, I mean the the best way to learn more about the company and really learn more about the asset class is to go (26/35)
to masterworks.com Request access to the platform. I see you've got an account there request access to the platform Um schedule calls one of our financial advisors. We have a team of 40 50 financial advisors that Literally just on board investors all day long and they they ask about portfolio size risk tolerance how you're investing today Then they help you think through um, how art can play a role In your your investment objectives and what you're trying to achieve So I think that's really the the best place to start and then uh, always feel free to reach out to me if there's there's any questions So request invitation and then somebody actually gets on the phone with you Yeah, so we're big believers in that because I think most people with this asset class are unfamiliar with it They don't know how to think about it. They don't know how to think about an allocation to art as part of their overall portfolio They're not sure how to think about uh diversification within art um, so we (27/35)
really believe in having financial advisors talk to uh individual investors and act as fiduciaries to help them think through some of those those very very specific things around around risk and allocation and Um how they should think about investing for the first time Nah, it's great stuff. Well scott. Listen, I I So happy for your success seeing you grow over a couple years And and I know it's going to continue to happen over the next few years So hopefully you join us again and thank you so much for uh coming on wall street. I really appreciate it, man Awesome. Thanks for having me Great stuff from scott I feel like I have close ties with him in the tokenization world right early to the party Told you that ces Had a big setup with a stage and separate companies all talking about tokenization. I'm walking by going I didn't like two three years ago guys, you know, it's pretty cool Uh and scott did as well. So I love what he's doing at masterworks. I had no idea that he was resonating (28/35)
rps with the sec Uh makes sense, right? It's considered security that people buy and sell and host make a profit on that sounds familiar It's exact definition for 99 of all the old coins or the shit coins that trade on numerous crypto exchanges Which the sec has yet to provide the regulatory framework for trading cryptos And this includes launching bitcoin ets, why don't we have bitcoin ets what's the problem here? Why don't we have that? We have future markets and products for the beat bitcoin in for futures. Why not? Why why are they dragging their feet on this? It's amazing But definitely check out the platform. Let me know what you think And we ended that conversation where he was talking about nfts and I said look nfts It's a massive market for a massive market for him And I know you know, a lot of stuff has to get registered but yeah, I have close ties to that industry now it took me a long time to To build there's a lot of bullshit in the industry just like crypto and The nft (29/35)
projects that i'm coming across are amazing. So, you know, I shared contacts and said listen, these are the guys that I trust that I built, uh, you know relationships with it took me a while and You know traveling a lot and going crazy and and you know, i'm getting old these days at 50 But that's why you have to be in the room for these things, right? It's very important Uh to build those relationships and he was interested in that he's like, yeah I just don't know anything about nfts. I want to learn more about I said, you know, me too You know, I know about nfts but holy cow, you know for me I want to make sure that once we launch it, we're going to launch a newsletter about it Provide great great services throughout that industry with people who are experts Uh that i've learned from where my biggest thing is, you know I don't want to anyone to get scammed that people get scammed a lot in this industry You need to learn there's a learning curve there. But when you explain it to (30/35)
people you could see how nfts are the future that's the future of the platform and Man masterworks will see incredible incredible growth The hardest part is getting that platform up and running trading platform sec and stuff like that. You have that Now it's just throwing more and more stuff on that platform and I think it's a good idea and we'll see maybe work to get in the future, but uh, Uh for that interview and masters, I love bringing new ideas, right? alternative asset classes too, especially during volatile markets like Yeah, what we see right this week Not even this week, but look at nasdaq right crash 35 a few months ago only surge They have a 10 in january up another three percent in february already after the fed meeting And amazes me. I mean the fed is there we said they said they're going to continue to raise rates I mean mention the word disinflation a couple positives here and there but still, you know going to continue to raise rates They're not going to lower anytime (31/35)
soon inflation still stubbornly high in many areas But this volatility is going to continue through 2023 well into 2024 Uh with the fed doing everything is power to force a recession make sure that unemployment rises helps solve inflation but uh This alternative asset class is pretty cool for anyone and that's my job to try to bring you ideas new ideas Expand the horizon there with crypto nfts everything. What do I feel that? I'm investing in or you can make money on i'm going to bring to you So I say this all the time. This is about you not about me So let me know you thought frankkurzyresearch.com. That's frank at kurzyresearch.com and that's it for me. But before I go Before I go I have a special surprise for you I will have Another interview for you on friday. Okay, do my frankly speaking podcast, which is available to paid subscribers only Yeah, you just gotta subscribe to any one of our services even the cheapest one you get frank This isn't frankly speaking. This is a special (32/35)
interview It's a great guest who has one of the deepest networks in terms of celebrities professional athletes Influencers ceos than anyone I know Saying a lot And this person's gonna actually interview me on saturday during a live stream for the sommelery all-star basketball game with thomas macarena in vegas on saturday There's gonna be tons of superstars that he invited me there I cannot go because i'm actually going to be moving a lot of my stuff out of my house that day Uh, and then you get the soup bowl next week with my daughter's birthday on it So I it's just too difficult for me to get back to vegas and go across the country But floyd meadoway weather's gonna be there Uh gary paton dennis robb and eric dickerson Uh michael vick devo samuel stefan digs a whole bunch of people, uh and and frank curzio. Oh my god so Uh, it's just being in the right circles You know, you're gonna see how I met this person just you know out of nowhere and next thing I know i'm like Wow, this guy's (33/35)
pretty cool. I like him. I think you're gonna like this interview. It's really really cool and special interview Where i'll also be making a super special announcement about wall street unplug Which I know you're going to love it's something that we've been building for the past few months Some of our subscribers got emails already about it I'm, very excited, uh, but we're gonna make the major announcement during that interview right after that interview Which is going to take place on friday. So be sure to have your itunes set to automatic download for wall street unplugged So once we publish the podcast on friday, it's going to automatically alert you or maybe an ik Frank doesn't publish ever on friday other than frankly speaking Just again, that's a different service. It's not on itunes This is going to go on itunes i'm going to send it to you again with the special announcement special interview really really cool Added value to you because I love you guys, but it's a must listen (34/35)
And yeah, just love my value for you guys. Let me know what you thought about everything. Seriously, frank Curzioresearch.com i'm here for you. That's it for me and I'll see everyone not just my paid subscribers for frankly speaking, but i'll see everyone Tomorrow take care Wall street unplugged is produced by curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on wall street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's going out there. It's October 7th. I'm Frank Curzio host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break that headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So we got a great interview set up for you With the one and only Andrew Horowitz who was the president founder of hearts and company who's a currently smart analyst also incredibly handsome Has I don't want to say the second best podcast in the world of the first called discipline investor Andrew how's it going man? How's everything? Hey Frank, what's happening, man? You know what it's so funny It's so funny because Yeah, I did that like I've been doing this. How long have you been doing your podcast? I think I started a little bit after you you've been doing it. Yeah, I was in 2007 okay, so I think it was like (1/35)
2008 when I took over for Kramer and Did it the whole time that I worked at Stansberry? They wanted me to a live broadcast there from podcasts right and I had it like a guest I think was Stephanie link at the time and I started it and I said Frank Curzio Wall Street Unplugged where I break that headlines And and the whole freaking crowd was like tell you what's really moving the markets. I'm like wow they actually like this So you're like a major like rock legend that all he has to do is point a microphone in the way of the audience and They start singing the song Yeah, I hear you I hear so Let's get let's get right into it here. I mean the markets are really all over the place. I'm sure you're getting You know just questions from clients I'm getting questions from subscribers And you know it's just you it's tough to see because we're not getting like that quick move down And then you know by the dip right it's 500 here 500 there up down You know now September was like the first month (2/35)
out of the last seven that that you know market went down But we're seeing some real indications of things where the foundation is You know cracking a little bit. I mean ten years obviously rising you're seeing you know Evergrande. You know what was an issue Supply chain issues are definitely for real and getting worse Inflation through the roof labor shortages, but yet there's art there are companies that are able to pass on these costs And have pricing power It seems like a very confusing market to most people where they're nervous which sometimes is a good thing when you know everyone's not Leaning to one side of being bullish or bearish, but there is concerns out there I don't want to see you know how you handling this, and you know what are your thoughts on what's going in the markets? You know I think one of the big things that we have to understand and recognize right now is some of the Reason we're seeing this volatility is that we are once again in that timeframe when you have (3/35)
all these Congress and said you know Congress Congressmen and Senators and everybody involved in government looking to get the limelight ahead of the sausage-making process until I think every single Person in Congress and maybe even government goes in front of a microphone I feel like we're not gonna see an end to this whole thing right now the big debate Without getting too political is really all about politics It's not about whether or not we should increase the debt ceiling everybody knows We should increase the debt ceiling it's not a question, but the political Gamery and and what's going on pushing the Democrats to move towards a simple majority? Is gonna set the stage up for the Republicans when in fact if in fact they win back The Senate at least to the point where we are today and kind of a slight advantage Having them the ability to do so because now to make well well you did it you did it now We could do it so what's happening is this push me pull me and this whole market (4/35)
movement Is all based on this big concern where Janet Yellen said hey? You know what if we do not increase the debt ceiling the next two weeks We can go through a default that's not gonna happen We know that the problem is that the the shenanigans that are being pulled by the government every single time There's some kind of a action like this the same thing happens. It doesn't change earnings. It doesn't change economics It just causes a lot of problems and consternation Earnings are the big problem right now as you mentioned at the top where you talked about inflation. I think that's really what we should be getting into the idea of whether or not the excess cost can be passed on and and whether or not it is inflation due to blank supply or demand or combination is Really the big issue right now, and I think that really the supply chain thing is really the the the nuts and bolts About what's happening with prices, and that's a big concern And that's gonna play out because we have You (5/35)
know significant amount of earnings expectations that are built in right now, and that so you add that all together And then one more thing that sherry on the top Frank is the loss of confidence in the Fed The confidence has been lost over slowly But surely over time when they just kept on telling us that no don't worry about it We can keep on pumping money in the system. It's not gonna be a problem for inflation Oh, there's a little inflation, but it's transitory oh Maybe it's not as transitory and then finally oh and by the way some of the gang here has been trading on the news and the information that we know about and Even though they shouldn't be there's a conflict of interest so confidence in the Fed which is a mainstay of any Of the market movement right now because a lot of what we're doing is fueled by the Fed. I think is really hurting investors right now All great points, let's take you know I don't forget to one of the time, but one of the biggest issues I think when you're (6/35)
saying earning season we're getting to the holiday season right the holiday period Right now inventory levels are incredibly low You're seeing fights for container ships. We saw coca-cola. Just announced you know yesterday that They're changing from container ships to dry bulk cargo, which is amazing That is amazing when you think about it just and they're saving costs even though dry bulk prices are up 5x at 5,000 right now and you're looking at You know container ships are what 2000 year ago, and they're like over 14,000 or something like 7x, right? So yeah, they are saving money, but you I have friends that are paying 21,000 That's yeah I mean we all have great sources in this industry if you do have net we all but if you just talk to these people And listen to people who are in this industry it is insane You look at the holiday period is supposedly the greatest money generating revenue generating Not so much earnings with all discounts sometimes, but that's a major period for these (7/35)
companies How are they gonna get? The supply and is it something we need to worry about because we're seeing it where I've seen just in the past three to four weeks I'm talking about 3m GE You know Honeywell tons of companies say let's like a key Walmart right Sherman Williams I mean you can keep going to FedEx And you know all is having a pastry for weeks, and it just leads me to believe that you know these are not This is a much much bigger problem, I think everyone's everyone believes right now It's gonna result in an uncertainty which the markets hate uncertainty right so how do you play the market going in because buying something? Right now if they come out and warn which we're seeing right we're seeing companies miss estimates and warn right now the warning period It's hard not to warn because it's just just on the safe side be like hey We might not be like look what Delta did Delta warned a month ago And then this month they raised our estimates back and said hey demands back (8/35)
right so if you want these Downgraded and airlines down which is confusing as hell I So you know how do you position yourself say as an individual investor? I mean do you buy into this market he takes small positions because right now it seems like for a risk-reward standpoint It's very very very dangerous Well, I think the market has to be split up though. That's the big issue right now retailers for example You have a situation going on in Vietnam where? The the COVID lockdowns have shut down a lot of factories the only way that you can actually work is if you go and live In the factories now over time if you remember what happened we shifted our Production of things like you know shirts and cotton wear and things of that nature from China to Vietnam right we moved them because we felt That it was a lot more Beneficial for pricing well we moved this whole block it was like all excited about Vietnam and now Vietnam is shutting down What happens what happens is you don't get your (9/35)
clothes out of there and the problem for like companies like the Gap and Old Navy And Walmart for that matter and other places that get their imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam that are Cambodia that that are having problems with production add that to the fact that even if they did get that container out which now cost the final Selling company the retailer much more money due to the fact that that that the container prices are more expensive You get to the Port of Los Angeles And you're waiting you're stacked up 80 boats deep because it's not enough truck drivers Which is bizarre by the way the whole thing about what's going on in the supply chain is from bizarro land Right the school children that can't get to school because many of the people that were laid off decide to maybe Start working for Amazon or uber and there's not enough school bus drivers the same thing that you don't have Truck drivers that got into different places when they were out of the job for a while So (10/35)
the the problem with the restart of the economy is very uneven what they say It's because it doesn't naturally just go from off to on some of the things are just not there and when you look at the the problems that you're mentioning and While I may want to go and buy a particular I don't know shirt or suit it may not be there because of all of this Therefore the school the store doesn't get the revenue and I'm not necessarily going just buy something else in his place So there is the potential for a slowdown due to the fact that there's no supply and that's that's a problem so That's just one of the problems what is the feds playbook right now? Okay, because this is one of the other things you wish with the Fed and the supply chain issue because the supply chain issue is Causing inflation so it's you know, it's hand-in-hand What's the flip fed paper and listen before you spun because the Fed right now it has a choice where okay? No tapering Keep rates low Inflation you're risking (11/35)
inflation getting out of control, especially we pass the infrastructure bill, right? Cuz I have no idea how you can't ship anything right now Imagine what world material be war material price going through the roof was seeing it one by one by one right now It's cotton. It was lumber. It's it's you know everything everything so or do they go ahead and Taper and also start raising rates because that's gonna have an environment where you're still gonna see inflation, but now you're gonna see Very slow growth. It's gonna slow right so then you have stagflation, which is a major concern but What's the feds playbook here? Cuz it sounds like they're like praying that well, we thought it was gonna be transitory We know it's not transitory What do we do and I don't know what they're gonna do because this is a one solution if inflation gets that That's the one thing the Fed can't control by throwing money at it, right? They could bail out anyone they want like in the past But this is a one thing (12/35)
where you have to do the opposite you have to take money out of the system You have to raise rates. You're gonna see massive to leveraging, you know, the corny come out of the market It's gonna be insane It's gonna be insane where you know risk off right risk off environment a lot of companies could get hurt But you know, what's that? I'm curious to know what the Fed play, but I don't know what they're gonna do and Here you go, I have announcement, you know it I have clarity I have clarity I'm not kidding about this either Okay Every once in a while you have clarity on if it hit me only a couple of days ago seriously When I heard one of the Fed speakers talk about that They are going to start to taper and they were complete the tapering by mid to let's say the mid part of 2022 That's what they said, right? I'm thinking myself Hmm, they're gonna taper they're gonna go from where we are at 120 billion dollars per month right now and they're gonna start moving over to tapering and Turning (13/35)
off quantitative easing by the middle part of 2022. How does that work? And then I realized something They're talking about tapering Tapering it's going from something big to small taper your pants You got a it goes from the wide leg down to a small leg. And what they're talking about is tapering not Discontinuing the taper may only be 20 billion dollars of total asset purchases that they reduce down Five billion dollars per month over the next four or five months. You follow what I'm saying here They will continue because they don't know how to do anything But and they have to do the fact that the government is issuing this much debt. They're gonna continue quantitative easing They're gonna taper in the taper program Which is just a small reduction will be done very slowly and it will be just a small amount I'm probably figuring they're gonna go down on the outsides Forty billion dollars a month to get in line with what they were doing during the financial crisis of 80 billion dollars (14/35)
a month That's what I think they're gonna do it's not gonna be which is still enormous and I don't think that's gonna slow down the economy That much it will create a liquidity issue for certain areas, but I think that will have the impact of actually Benefiting markets in the long run not allowing them to get over the top bubbly And the reason why this is important right so talking economics here is it's a top-down approach because if you could figure or try to figure what the feds gonna do because We know a lot more than the fit we see it real time A lot of these guys at the Fed a lot of these guys on TV. They're on TV all the time They're hanging out rich circles. They don't see the labor shortages. Your favorite places are now closing They're not even like operating 80% capacity and you're waiting there all day They're closing because they can't get people to work there. Right? So we're seeing prices through everywhere We know that but if the Fed does start Tapering or if we see (15/35)
inflation continue to go out of control. I mean, we're kind of seeing it now, right? What are the the areas financials do good in higher interest rate environments? We've seen inflation with at the beginning right here with oil prices really taking off and then you're also seeing the hit in technology Which is showing inflation because these are the guys generate the most money from the capex spending from everyone else Right now margins are already high so they can't cut their margins like cyclical companies So they people say why technology companies directly impacted because it affects the advertising budgets It expects capital spending the capex across the board and these companies as rates rise They're gonna have to shrink their budgets, which means less money is gonna go to advertising and Facebook So all these tells us telling us inflation Are these the places that we need to buy or this how you positioning yourself or is it? I've been leading so we have several different (16/35)
strategies, right? We have we have a kind of a long short strategy which by the way we're using cash as a buffer because it's almost impossible to hedge out a portfolio right now of Positioning when you have a market this up 500 one day down five and down 300 Midday up 400 then back down even by the end of the day, right and these are all signs of late-stage late stage market madness Along with what's going on with the with the Congress and the Fed. I think you have to lean If you're in a diversified approach and you're thinking about protecting for inflation as we do in our global allocations For example as we do with invest ology, which is diversified portfolio you lean Towards the the value for for a hundred different reasons one being that they have underperformed for the last five years and The catch-up trade is almost inevitable which is happening with energy Look, look if you don't think that all of this is inflationary. Look what's happening with oil There's not a supply issue (17/35)
or demand issue It's simply the fact that there's speculative action going on opex not pumping anymore and even though we know that the need for oil has severely been reduced and cut by Airlines not flying cars not really out the trucks not so much out there We just talked about the ports and and all the things that are going on It's insane that we have that Brent is over 83 and WTI is what 76 and change Some of this and natural gas has doubled this year coal prices through the roof, you know I mean all of this that is going on is a is the excess amount of liquidity in the markets and the inflationary environment That is right in front of everybody's face the Fed won't admit it their job is not to admit it their job You've been around Frank. Let me ask you something. When's the last time you saw the Fed say You know things aren't looking so good Actually, I really get here a lot of CEOs say that often until like recently about everything But everyone always talks positive about their (18/35)
company. They say oh, yeah I'm talking to CEOs if you and obviously you're on the same way you're gonna talk about the positives But you know, you're right you don't see them, you know, especially in the political world as well, right? They're not gonna backtrack and say hey, we got this right happens how things miserable every client has left me. It's terrible Hey, why don't you do business with me? No never backtracking so so so okay, let's get into some of the positions here So you did offer some speculative positions last time that didn't work out as well. You have one of the best performances You know being on this pocket of such a long time So you're gonna get some wrong some right? That's okay. It was work work house in a indeedy. I kind of like DDS Yeah, I hate to interrupt your show Sorry Frank, but you can interrupt my show anytime, but I did say these were highly speculative These were kind of one-off specialties. I said, you know, these are kind of like these Wildcards and (19/35)
it was you know, if one thing goes right they could do really well There was a little pop on the beginning. But yes, those yeah, those sucked and look To all of us right if you look at your track record of being on this podcast It really is incredible So and I know you're always fair because you actually brought that up and said hey I mentioned this last time and that's what I love about you, right because for me too. I like it Just am I losing one of my winners? That's what you learn the most But now you're looking at this environment everything that we talked about What are some of the areas you're looking at, you know individual names, which you love giving out? What are some of the things that that are attractive going into an earning season that that's kind of like a you know A little scary right now So a couple of thinner thinner Traded positions that are interesting and if you think about everything and you agree with what we just talked about the higher cost for For commodities (20/35)
and goods the problem with supply chains the problem with Asia That all I started thinking about where's that all go Well get companies like a Wayfair or an RH restoration hardware the furniture companies They're smack dab in the middle of problem zone So it would seem to me that there's a lot of pain Ahead for these guys and if we have a slowing economy it even gets you know worse if we have a reopening Wayfair maybe not selling so much furniture to do a pop-up office in your house And even though their margins are high because their furniture is awful Okay They mark it up. I have yet to I don't think maybe maybe once or twice but generally anything I've ordered from Wayfair I've either sent back or they said don't bother sending it back. Just keep it It's something's broken or chipped or warped or I'm not kidding about this either. So They obviously have and I could tell you a lot of people talk to your friends and ask them Hey, have you ever tried to return something to Wayfair? (21/35)
What do they do? It is they keep it or They'll send it back to you and give you fifty or a hundred dollars off and send you another one something crazy like that So they obviously have pretty good margins when it comes to what's going on with that RH also the opposite side of the spectrum really great furniture Extraordinarily high prices, you know in Ottoman is like five grand You've been in there right RH. Mm-hmm Yes, yes How much can people buy after a while and what and if there's a supply chain is you're getting it that's a problem On the other side of it So that's kind of like some short ideas and the other side kind of Netflix really knocking it out of the park With the fact that they're continuing and have the ability they are pricing pressure of the pricing power They think about it if Netflix does a one Dollar a month fifty cents a month a two dollar a month increase in your fees. What are you gonna do? nothing and It's kind of like a frog boiling in a pot unless they do (22/35)
something absurd But even if they went five dollars a month, what are you gonna do? Nothing? Nothing, nobody's gonna cancel and the pricing power that they have is incredible they do Has it Disney doesn't have it because Content is coming on that platform Right. They they were just like let's add as many subscribers for free as we can and people bought into that model And now you've seen it slow down But when I look at streaming when I look at Netflix, there's this one difference every did the major actors actresses Love it. They all come away Loving it saying this is the greatest experience and they lock them in and they give them whatever they want They treat them great and they all love that platform where they have amazing new content AT&T is another one with both of those guys spending 20 billion dollars a year on new content and Disney I mean their cash flow is still terrible is still getting you know impacted with international travel and stuff But yeah, they don't have that (23/35)
constant cash flow coming in especially like an AT&T which has 30 billion dollars 27 billion dollars in free cash flow coming in but When I look at Netflix just a clear winner Reed Hastings is the most competitive guy you'll ever know I remember when yep, he was yeah took down blockbuster He went they went to blockbuster during the the credit crisis and they're looking to get sold and they were laughing at them And then he wanted destroyed that guy's one of those competitors. That's why when Disney comes in he goes on TV He's like it's good more people get into our markets. That's not that's no that's He's like we're murdering these guys and we're gonna bury more fun And that's what I like about it. But yeah, Netflix is just I mean squid game. I haven't seen it yet Watching it is it again episode? Yeah. I'm in episode two. I think it's entertaining, you know the idea That you go in and play a game. Everybody knows the basic principles of going to play a game and Unbeknownst to you. (24/35)
It's kind of like we'll either create incredible freedom and financial Security for you or you're gonna die So it takes you through life and gets you close to some of the people kind of an interesting interesting and the one difference also is you mentioned that that Netflix the the actors really like and the people that go they come away saying Great things as opposed to Disney where they sue them And not only the Sue Disney but Disney came out and like trashed her they were just like well, you should have more respect. That was cold But I was like, whoa, I was like you do not do that. She's extremely powerful, right? I mean, that's a powerful actress in Hollywood, man. You don't want to piss that person off, but There is one Good Idea a genre Is crisper technology crisper editing, you know the biotech area we've seen a lot of moves of companies that we're doing the vaccines etc and the and the mrna's and all that and Pfizer BioNTech etc, but I'm kind of digging the whole and I'd like (25/35)
this for a long period of time. They have a lot of opportunity If you look at the fundamentals, you're not gonna really find anything right now But if they make a hit which they're kind of starting to get some things going on here two companies edit edit And crisper technology see Crsp are interesting. And finally the one that you think you want to talk about is a firm And we talked about the shopping situation We talked about what's going on a firm entered into the old world of installment payments. That was like Back in the days when you buy a suit or whatever from Macy's right you'd go and you'd go Say well put it on layaway. I'll pay you $20 a month. I'll pick it up in six months That's great or installment plan. We could actually take it and they would do this now MasterCard Visa have had this for years, but it wasn't as cool it wasn't as workable where you could have a zero interest rate on very short-term loans the The retailers love this Amazon recently made announcement to (26/35)
bring in a firm in a firm You could do like a buy now pay layer later or the fancy way to say is BN PL is a way to do it a firm basically It's a cut of the deal from the retailer up whatever is negotiated. They also get potentially some money up from zero percent on some items and some agreements to Ten to thirty percent on longer installment plans. It's a micro lending platform essentially for Specific goods and it's it's not backed by anything, you know when you buy it, it's just a signature. They'll do a background checks They have great algorithms and today or yesterday. I guess it was yesterday The announcement came late, but Target is now using a firm and the stock is jamming up as well So you got great earnings that came out Amazon Target and they're not they don't think it's not like Walmart would say Oh Targets using a firm. We're not going to you know Other companies even competitors can use a firm because the theory is I can go in and say oh I have $100 to spend today online (27/35)
on something. I'm gonna buy a skirt or I'm gonna not me but my wife or you know, I'm gonna buy a certain I'm gonna buy a certain item that I want for fishing and I have $100 well all of a sudden that hundred I can spread out because like well I was gonna spend a hundred but I'm gonna spend four hundred because I'm gonna pay 100 a month for four months right and this way it kind of can really been this is why a lot of the Players want this as opposed to okay Of course, they could spend more on MasterCard and figure it out on their own But they could put a little thing on there and say only pay $25 a month for the next four months click this button and it's a seamless transaction a f r m Just edit Added more to my client portfolios this week Okay, so there's there's usually like a format whenever we actually going on the podcast We'll just send like, you know, just bullet points say this this this is the things that we're talking about And you send some ideas one idea that you didn't (28/35)
mention that you had on your list Was a company that I have to tell you that I never heard of before and it's Asana and You know, this is a pretty amazing company where you know, probably helped practice every platform I never heard of this company before has a 20 billion dollar valuation. I'm looking at this freaking chart. Holy cow I guess it's cuz you know, what it must IPO, you know 2020 but man, I mean what this is, you know, just interesting I love to see just to see them move and of course It's come off like most stocks, you know the past month or so, but just to see this move here. It is pretty incredible It's a you know, is that a name that you see you're looking into but I like just new ideas I never heard of but what these guys do enable teams. It's orchestrate work basically increased productivity. Obviously, this is a platform That's working because you're seeing more demand you're seeing earnings explode and you're seeing yeah, that's not price follow So this is one of (29/35)
those stocks one of those companies that I've actually used their product for a number of years And it was too dumb to buy it on the IPO kind of thing, right Because they really didn't have earnings etc. You know, all the different things that go into that play, right? Let's see how it plays out and then you saw that chart. It was like a moonshot. So Asana is a great product It's used by a lot of developers and other teams. Basically what you could do is something like this. Let's say that you and I Have a particular project that we're working on Let's say this podcast, you know Every time that I come on the podcast you give me It's the Horowitz Curzio podcast and every time you want something there you put a little note in okay, here's your assignment Whatever you can spec it out. You can use calendaring and all that inside very simple to use track all of that Maybe I put some notes up there a screenshot up there All of that is just dedicated to our work environment on this podcast, (30/35)
right? So you say hey, we're coming on tomorrow What graphics which things you want? I upload it from my desk you get it We can have multiple people on the same team. We can complete it. We can post it We could postpone it add more Under the project add more tasks. I use that with all the developers I work with and it really works Well, I have a five person And I don't pay anything. It's five people you get for free Under five. That's pretty cool Good project management you got to get used to it, you know, but once you do great product I think it's a great buyout candidate and that's why the stock's moving rather than just the underlying fundamentals Yeah, no, it definitely makes sense so as always love the ideas we have one minute just one minute left So I always love giving you time to just you know, talk about your company if people want to get in touch with you How could they do that? Well, let me hang on. Oh No, I was coming off to put your website ready, but I just started. Yes. (31/35)
There you go. I love the mustache I love the mustache so much. It's so awesome man. It's so like Tom Selleck I love it. If you guys we did this most of you know that we have our YouTube channel, but that is so awesome But the discipline investor love the book love it And then you have you know, I have your website up right now if you know, so discipline Yeah, basically you want to work with us. We have variety of different strategies and programs available from in this technology We start to $10,000 diversified using a band of different range of risk our TDI manage growth strategy, which is traditionally a long short right now We're leaning on the long side generally speaking with a buffer and our global allocation So it's all there and you can check that all out over on that Yep Gives you all the stuff there and how to get in touch with us plus the podcast of course the agent plug Tuesday nights live and on your favorite podcast Catchers as well as the discipline investor been running (32/35)
for for for 14 years now That's in seconds of only one which is Frank Curzio's fantastic. I know we met that long ago, right? Podcasts you tell me what you say you have a podcast like big I got one too I'm like, no, no, no We have a podcast for like 13 14 15 years and now everybody has one. It's so funny everybody XP advice I'm sure you get it too, and I tell them all that I'm gonna tell you exactly how it works and how you can stay On long but you're not gonna do it And it's sure enough. They're right a couple months a lot of work. It's a lot of work. It's a lot of energy It's getting on good guess. It's you know, staying ahead of the markets being Original but it's it requires a lot of time and commitment. I love it I know you love it, but if you don't love it and you're just trying to do it, it never works, right? It's never works in any right. So I'd love to see that. We're both in this game and thanks for coming on me You know, I love you have been friends for a very very long (33/35)
time Love all the ideas and if you do happen to go on that amazing trip I know it's a I thought it was a guarantee, but you may be heading to Egypt. Not too sure. Hopefully you are It's gonna be awesome Definitely enjoy that but and I'm sure I'll talk to you before and I just let you know around the corner Frank around the corner Is sailfish season is about to start up. Have you caught a selfish yet Frank? No But I am I'm definitely coming to your house because every time you I'm sick of you sending me like these Massive massive fish all the time and I always see them and I'm like man. I gotta go I gotta go So yes, it is. Just let me get you a sailfish Frank. No, definitely. I'm definitely what is it? What does it start when I see you start? well Usually it's a well it wouldn't be for where you are but up here when we we officially call it when the first cold snap Happens when you like the day that you walk outside go. Wow, it's kind of cold out that day Is the start of self a season? (34/35)
It's probably mid November. All right, I'm in I'm definitely in seriously. I'm definitely in Alright man, thanks so much for coming on guys Thanks, buddy. That's it for me questions comments for the email Frank Curzio research calm. That's Frank Curzio Research calm really appreciate all the support and I'll see you guys next week. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – What's going on today? It's February 8th, and I'm Frank Curzio with the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. We just came back from Daytona, where my daughter had a gymnastics competition. The last one was a couple weeks ago. She didn't perform that well. She blamed everything under the sun, except for herself, and being her dad and competitive, I said, nope, you can do better than that. She's like, what are you saying? I did bad. I said, hey, you know, I'm your dad. I'm going to tell you the truth because I know you're better than this. Like, if she really sucked, I'd be like, wow, you did great, honey. You're awesome. But I'm like, you're so much better than this. Come on. You can do (1/35)
better. And, you know, I really pumped her up, and she was relaxed for this competition. She did much better. She was leading her entire team after the first two events, which was the floor and the beam, and the floor was amazing, her performance. She really stuck one of the landings. Everyone was like, whoa, and crazy. And then she did decent on the vault because it's kind of like the Olympics, like four events. And then came the bars, and she slipped off. Not fell or anything, but she came off the bars and on her feet, and she got a bad mark, which lowered her score. But I was really proud of her. I love the confidence. She's really good. It's hard to do good in every single event. Usually people have one or two good events. If she really got a good score in that, she probably would have finished fourth place. This was like a premier event, though. I mean, people take this seriously. They take pictures of their kids, and they make pants out of them. And I'm a gymnastics mom and dad. (2/35)
It's like over the top. I mean, it's those kids' beauty pageant things where they make movies on them, and reality shows it's kind of like that. I mean, parents are just over the top, like insane. They know every single thing that's going on. And I'm just like, hey, just all right. Just learning. But yeah, I'm proud of her. She's only been doing it for two years. She's really, really good, and she's got confidence. It was a lot of fun. It was a lot of fun. And this place in Daytona, it wasn't just like a regular gym. It was a stadium. I mean, you had to sit up the second level. You couldn't sit on a floor. You had to sit on the top level, second level. And the competition took place on Sunday, right? So her group started around 1145. So the place was about two hours away from my house. But the day before, my wife... And this was the day before, but we left the day before, left the setting, got a hotel in Jacksonville. Because a few weeks ago, my wife joined a Facebook group from (3/35)
Jacksonville, and all Jacksonville moms wanted to hang out, and new moms, and stuff like that. And I was just hoping that that wasn't a future divorce mom club or whatever. But anyway, it was like 30 girls that were like, hey, we're gonna go out and have a good time, because we're moving to Jacksonville. We're building a house there. So she's like, hey, I like to hang out. I said, listen, why don't we drive there? I'll get a hotel. I'll take the kids, hang out with the kids. You go out, and I'll pick you up. What a great husband. I am awesome. And got that hotel. She went out drinking and partying. I took the kids to one of those jumping trampoline parks. Maybe not the best idea since my daughter, and a few hours later, the next morning, had to go to the gymnastics competition. But she's young, right? She's young. Got home like 10 p.m., and then she was on stage at 11, 11.45. But again, she could handle it. Nice being young. But anyway, I picked up my wife. We had a great time. Got a (4/35)
little drunk. Lots of fun. And you guys, happy wife equals happy life, right? That's the way it goes. And give and take, and she's done a lot for me, and just been crazy at the company, as you know. But again, that happy wife and happy life is a good thing. At least when you do something good, that's for a few days, right? That lasts. So you get good vibes for a few days until stuff goes back to normal. It's always crazy since we're driving the kids everywhere, and I'm running the business and stuff. It was a really good weekend, in all seriousness. Just spending time with the family, which was needed, working so hard. It's nice to just step away, because Monday was a really big day for us and our company, Curzio Research. Curzio Equity Owners' Token went live in a TZERO platform yesterday. It was a big event for a company, and it was a huge success since we did more volume on TZERO and TZERO's alternative trading platform. We don't call them exchanges here in the US, or regulation, (5/35)
whatever. But we did more volume in one day than our token did in almost a full year on the foreign exchange that we traded on. I'm not saying anything bad about foreign exchange. We just didn't get any volume on it, right? And liquidity for the security token market is huge. It's the last missing component for an industry that's bigger than anything I've ever analyzed in my 30-year career. And actually, I could say it's probably bigger than anything I've ever analyzed combined in my 30-year career. There's literally hundreds of trillions of assets that could become tokenized, where you sell off a piece of that asset to investors in a tradable token or shares. I should own commercial real estate. Again, I covered this over the past few weeks. You know, bonds. Bond managers, one bond manager saying, this is a great idea, because look at fixed income and the prices. And look with market, and you're wondering why it's usually the highest margin, best performing business when it comes to (6/35)
investment banking is their fixed income division. Take a look when they report earnings. So looking at the size of this market, it's huge and exciting. But anyway, look, this is an endorsement for our Curzio Equity Owners token. If you want to buy, buy. If not, don't buy. I'm not allowed to talk about the price, just like Microsoft's not allowed to talk about their price. That's up to you. You know, I can only control what I control. And working hard, get my team constantly building this company, make it bigger, bigger. This gives you a direct equity stake, just like it would as if it were a shareholder, and allows you to trade as a retail investor. And hopefully that'll be reflecting the price if we continue to grow. But what I can say is this. Try to learn everything you can about this industry. I think I might have said that term a few times in the past three, four weeks. And you could do so by going to our Curzio Equity Owners site, looking at token tracker we created. You can go (7/35)
to T0. You could just go to Google and research security tokens, and you're going to be fascinated. It's just a fantastic concept that really levels the playing field between Wall Street and Main Street. And I think every single one of you listening to this podcast right now, which is a lot of you, talk about that later, it's a lot of you now. It's something we all want. We all want to make money without being taken advantage of from asshole elites with fancy lawyers that don't give a shit about you, just give a shit about themselves. Of what we've seen with the BS SPACs in the marketplace, look how much those got crushed. Those guys were at them long time before you and at a much better price. What about the over-hyped, inflated IPOs the past two years? I mean, how many are they trading well, well, well under that first day trading price? But those of you who've been following me for a long time, for a really long time, the podcast is close to 15 years now. But in 2010, I said, learn (8/35)
everything you can about fracking. I had great contacts in the industry, I traveled, went on rigs, went to over 20 counties in the Eagle Ford, went to the Permian Basin, went to the Bakken in North Dakota. And I was just talking to people, learning, and not just the people in the oil industry. And this was back in 2011, I think, when I went to the Bakken. And the Walmart employees were paying like 20, $25 an hour. And that's how much you were making just people working in hotels. And it was a booming, booming, booming economy. It was well over $100. I was just fascinated, saying, wow, this technology is here. It's amazing. It's not BS. They're trying to put it down, the climate evangelists are trying to say that it creates water contamination, which is impossible to do unless you physically take out all the chemicals and dump them in an ocean or a water or a pond or something like that. That's different. But they frack thousands of feet below any fresh water that could possibly... So (9/35)
unless somehow magically we change the laws of physics and these chemicals goes upward through rock, thousands of feet into water. Again, for me, when I went through, I thought there was going to be dead animals everywhere. We just forgot the name of that movie that came out. It was on HBO. I was like, holy shit, this is crazy. I want to learn more about it and realize, holy shit, this is great. They have 100% success rate of drilling. And they do that, especially in the Permian, because it's been drilled for decades and decades and decades. So they know the roadmap. They almost know exactly where they're going to drill. And they hit almost every time. Drilling down, vertical, horizontally. It's unbelievable technology. And look what happened to the oil industry where the US became the largest oil producer in the world. Unheard of. Not even on a radar, just a few years before that. In 2012, coming back from the Consumer Electronics Show, said, learn everything you can about the (10/35)
internet of things. He said, Chambers from Cisco said, everything can be connected, will be connected. And he was right. Talk about 5G many, many years ago before you saw 50 promotions in our industry on it last, what, three years, two years? Even though 5G is still really not here. It's still not here. I mean, you can look on your phone. Again, I own a phone rescue place. We call it Curzio Rescue. But it's where we fix phones. And again, I'm hands off on that job. It's something that I owned. I had a 30% stake. I wanted to take it over the whole company. But you'll see. Just go to your phone. You're not going to have 5G coverage. There's a few areas. Some major cities. Still not really here. Anyway, everybody talks how great, how much money. But again, talk about 5G a very, very long time ago. How 5G improves everything. Those algorithms, data analytics. Data analytics. I think it was 2011. And I was working at Stansberry at the time. I was talking about Target. How they targeted a (11/35)
young 16-year-old girl. Target was sending this girl, or sending this family, coupons. Just targeted them. And they were about pregnancy. And they just kept sending them, sending them, sending them. Then the dad went over to the manager. Target said, hey, you know what? My daughter's 16 years old. Why the hell are you sending these? And he apologized. And a week later, the manager called the dad back and said, hey, I just want to apologize again. The manager was like, listen, really, really sorry. The dad was like, no, no, no. I should be sorry. Because my daughter is pregnant. Not only did they know she was pregnant, I'm not talking about for her buying pregnancy tests or anything. They knew to the exact day of when she was going to have that baby. That was 2011. That was 4G. That was when algorithms were really, really fast. Think how fast they are now. With 5G, faster internet, how far advanced? That was 2011. I worked for Jim Cramer. When I worked for Cramer, he used to come out (12/35)
with his recommendations. When he came out with his recommendations, we had to send it to all these lists at the same exact time. Within seconds, not even seconds, the alert would hit. Before you could open that alert, the stock would jump 3, 4, 5% immediately. That's how fast algorithms were. That was 2010 when I was working there. You wonder now, you wonder why Facebook's down 14% and then down 20% five minutes later. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. You have the bridge waters, the big guys, Six Sigmas. Then you have 30 other hedge funds, which are a billion here, a billion there, piling on top of this same system. It's like the Degerian Brothers. We're looking for unusual option activity. Now there's 30 newsletters that do the same. It's very easy to just manipulate it so there is some kind of movement where you take the other side, create that liquidity event, and then go the opposite and wreck people. That's why you're seeing these massive movements. I don't get it too technical. (13/35)
This stuff was taking place a long time ago. Again, it's stuff that we were talking about. You look back at different industries, telling you everything you should learn about crypto. Bitcoin, four years ago. When some of you subscribed to my crypto intelligence, what was it, three months ago? Got a lot of subscribers in when Bitcoin was at 50,000 plus and then went up a lot more of its falling hearts since then. We need to take some small positions in those last three or four picks, and into those positions on the way down. Now look where crypto is bouncing back. I have no doubt. Like I said, I don't know where it's going to be in the next few months. I know 100,000 is definitely in the future. Bitcoin is here, but all the innovations are coming out from that. But that's exciting times. If you're a subscriber to crypto intelligence, I'm talking to metaverse companies in the early stages, NFT Royalty companies that I'm meeting with, going to get some serious backing these guys, other (14/35)
security tokens being launched. Everything I have access to, you will have access to. That's the newsletter. Now the next stage is security tokens. I mean, it's huge. It's awesome. It's a great industry. Put my money where my mouth is. We're trading. I'm not saying, this is going to go up. I'm not telling you to do something, which I'm not really doing myself, which is what you see throughout our industry. Everyone tells you, you got to buy it. It's going to go 50X on this date, on this exact date. How many shares you own? Well, I can't own it because I'm writing about it. Then why the hell would you write about it if you think it's going up 50X? Well, you buy it yourself. No, I need subscribers. We have in the world of crazy industry, and that's why I started this company, to change the bullshit out there because it needs to be changed. Getting back to the point here, security tokens is it, guys. Start learning about it. It has nothing to do with our token, but start learning about (15/35)
it. It's a concept that makes sense, checks off all the boxes. It's good for everybody. Of course, respect the issuers and retail investors. The costs are cheaper. It makes sense. It's the reason why so many people are reaching out. Whenever I talk about this story, especially if I'm speaking at an event, the amount of questions I get, like, holy shit, right? Every company is looking to raise money. They're looking to bring awareness to their company. They need money to spend. If they really have that good idea and they're not big enough where they're generating 10, 20, 30 million plus in sales, where you want to go to NASDAQ or something, this is the alternative. And it's awesome. We're a great example of this. If you're looking at security tokens, crypto in general, guys, this is where the next wave of innovation is going to come from, where it's DeFi, NFT security tokens, and Metaverse. That's where all this is coming from. It all flows through crypto. Because if I go to this (16/35)
Consumer Electronics Show every freaking year forever, and I can tell you, there's no new innovations. It's smart homes creating this alliance where all these components can talk now no matter who the manufacturer is. But again, smart homes, it's building these existing trends like AI, how to make AI better, data analytics, the Snowflakes, how do we get better data? How do we make it easier? Because there's so much crappy data. Most of it's crap. How do we take that small percentage, learn from it, and make money off of it and target the right people? But they're all advances off existing trends where crypto and DeFi, all this stuff is brand new. NFT security tokens, why are you getting involved? These industries are massive, hundreds of trillions of dollars, hundreds of trillions of dollars in illiquid assets that could become tokenized. Not all of it, not 50%, maybe not 20%, but just 5% makes it a market that's probably five, 10 exercise of the cancer treatment market, which is (17/35)
enormous. What's the potential here? Start learning about it because this is one of the only ways where you could get in ahead of Wall Street, where SPACs, forget it, they're getting it at a dollar. You think you're getting a bargain at 10 when it goes to 12. Now those things are trading at six and five, you're like, shit, I'm down 50%, these guys own it at a dollar. The IPO process with Robinhood, boy, they sold a great story there. Coinbase, go on and on with some of these crazy IPOs, Rivian. Retail investors could buy them when? When all these guys are getting out for their liquidity event. Crypto's different, security tokens is different. You could buy near the ground floor, you could buy ahead of Wall Street. That's why it's a massive, massive market. It's going to be big. It's going to catch on, it's going to scale, it's going to be liquid, and we're in the very early stages. So look, start learning about it. I have a pretty good track record with stuff like this. It's why I've (18/35)
been doing this for so long, it's why I think a lot of you continue to listen, which I think is crazy, but hey, as long as you listen, I'll keep doing this podcast. With that said, getting out of the crypto market, getting out of our big event, because you're equity owners, listen, the overall market, getting a lot of questions is on shaky ground. There's some are talking six to seven rate hikes, that's what I saw on CBC, six to seven rate hikes, including a 50 basis point hike when the Fed meets next. And I'm not too sure if that's priced into the markets. I'm not sure if a two and a half percent Fed funds rate in 12 months, I don't think it's factored in. 3% in the 10 year, it's basically at 2% right now, I don't think it's factored in. 225, might be factored in, maybe a little higher. 5% plus mortgage rates, not priced in. I have to tell you, those are likely scenarios right now. We have inflation going wild. Look at energy prices, look at wages. They have to raise rates, they have (19/35)
no choice. But doesn't mean you have to sell every single stock, you just need to understand the macro backdrop. And it's not that easy. I mean, you're looking at climate change, for example. And I don't care if you believe in climate change or not, I don't care. This is about your money. So just hear me out before I get all the crazy emails, which I love, frightcarisoresearch.com, fire away. I have thick skin and I kind of like it. Those tend to be the funniest emails. But the fact is there is a massive initiative to curb carbon emissions by corporations, by countries, everywhere. It's resulting in less drilling in the US, it's resulting in a massive increase in energy prices, which we're all feeling, including oil and natural gas. And it's not going to slow any time soon. What's going to slow this trend? EVs? EVs ain't coming out for a while. What are you, crazy? Are you with parts supplies? Just the supply chain issues? No way. And finally, after not saying they had supply chain (20/35)
issues, that says like we do, we're not coming out with any new models this year, which is amazing. And all these other cohesives, I think there's 50 something new EVs supposed at the market. When I say hit the market, I mean not one or two, but hey, I got delivery and we deliver like 20 or 50. I'm talking about seeing them on the road when you're on a highway. You're two years away. You're two years away, at least. There's no way. The supply chains aren't there. Technology isn't even there. It's like Ford's spending $30 billion plus. Why do they have to spend so much on new technology? You don't have it yet? Nope. They just partnered with Rivian, not just invested in them. But how do you play this with rising energy prices? Well, you can purchase oil and gas companies, done okay. Service providers, get the drillers, get the producers, seismic data companies, which is kind of ironic buying them, right? Since we're supposed to make oil companies or the climate change crazies, supposed (21/35)
to make them weaker, less dependent, not stronger. These companies are more stronger than they've ever been. But go further, go beyond that, right? Because that energy trade, wow, it's up and some missed it. Even I missed it in some of the newsletters and stuff. But what else is going to be impacted? Because there's another sector, which is even more ironic, is coal, right? We did everything we can to destroy the entire coal industry. Well, what's used to power electricity? Natural gas? I'm not sure if you saw prices lately, which have doubled in a year, even after the pullback. Pullback's up. The $6, whatever is $4.50. But look at the UK, holy cow. Crisis, crisis, crisis levels in the UK. Before we said electricity generation, the US comes from natural gas. That's followed by nuclear renewables, both the 20% and then coal, which is at 19%. Still 19%. I mean, you look at the global electricity landscape. And hear me out really quick here. This is interesting. So natural gas accounts (22/35)
for 23% of all electricity, global. Renewables at 26%. Again, this is according to the IEA. Nuclear at 10%. You know what coal's at? So natural gas is at 23%, renewables at 26%, nuclear at 10%. Coal's at 38%. 38%?! How crazy is that? Despite China and India and Germany swearing they're significant to lower their coal usage because we must save the planet. Guys, money trumps everything. We even learned that during COVID. Even trumps like the safety of your own children, right? They don't even care about your children with the shit and the statistics we had over a year ago that we couldn't talk about of how coals cause more deaths or the flu caused more deaths than kids with COVID in groups that are 12 years old and under. It doesn't matter. You're still seeing kids wear masks, we're learning about the effects. John Hopkins University said everything, right? So just when you take COVID alone when it comes to politics, you can see how money trumps everything. It even trumps the lives of (23/35)
kids just to get your agenda. Do you really think where coal prices are and where natural gas prices are that electricity companies in China, India, Germany are going to say, oh no, we shouldn't use coal. Are you crazy? Look what coal prices are. They're surging. You want to use something funny. All those companies that were supposed to be put out of business, a couple of them came out of bankruptcy. Of course they changed their name so you probably don't even know them. I looked at some analyst coverage on them. No analysts. None of the big analysts cover them at all. I thought there was something wrong with my computer. I'm like, wait a minute. Then I put in like, you know, just a Dow component. All the research came up. I'm like, wait a minute. Are you kidding? They're not even allowed to cover them. Then you go to these websites, you got to try to find their presentation and you barely can. They're not allowed to talk about their financial. They're not really allowed to talk about (24/35)
anything. Yeah, it is all like buried. I'm looking at this, start studying this, and I'm like, holy cow. Not only coal prices soaring and they're not going to stop, right? Not with the initiatives in place, but this is providing an opportunity to own coal companies, which again, yes, there's still a few around. When I started doing research on these guys, I mean, they can't talk positively about themselves, which is crazy. That's how I hated they are. They can't even like, when's the last time you saw anything positive on coal? Nobody really writes it. You're not allowed. These companies can't do anything. They can't acquire other companies. But you know what? They're generating more cashflow than they have in the history of their companies. When I'm talking about generating more cashflow, they're going to generate, two of them that I looked at, they're going to generate more cashflow in the next 12 months. Hear this out, please, because I've never seen this before in my life. More (25/35)
cashflow in the next 12 months than what their market caps are trading at. Again, I've never seen that in my life. That's how cheap the coal companies are. But these are the types of disconnects you find in a crazy market like this, where the climate change crazies, whose purpose is to save the planet, reduce exposure to fossil fuels, oil, gas, coal. I mean, these industries are actually making these companies, industries much, much stronger than they've ever been. Than they've ever been. I mean, they're more strong today than they were dating back 100 years for some of them. That's how old some of these companies are. It's an oil industry. It defeated the whole purpose. But that's how you have to look at analyzing companies. How do I find the best ideas? That's how you find them. You say, oh, well, I missed oil and maybe natural gas plays, and holy cow, I never thought we'd go to 90 again. Maybe we go to 100, 120, and you feel like you missed it. You don't want to buy it up here. (26/35)
There's other plays that you can look at. Your Curzio Research Advisory subscriber, you're going to learn a lot about the coal industry tomorrow, Wednesday. It's a February issue. It'll also present you with a great opportunity. But guys, make no mistake. This is a crazy freaking market where you have Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple have gone up in tandem for the past 12 years. Past 12 years. Look at the charts. 12 years. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And back and forth, back and forth percentage wise. For the past 12 years, moved up together. Yet in the past week, Facebook lost 25% of its value in a day, while Amazon gained 17% in a day. We're talking about $250 billion plus market cap losses and gains in a day for these stocks. If you want to put that in perspective, just to understand how big of a move that was and how crazy and insane those move were for those two companies, an Amazon stock has been underperforming. So okay, get it with the 17% rise. But Facebook falling that much (27/35)
in a day, losing over $250 billion in market cap, there's only 24 companies in the S&P 500 that have bigger market caps than $250 billion. You would think it's more, but it's not. That's how much they lost in one day. Welcome to the new markets. We're going to see massive volatility, interest rates are going to surge, the Fed is well behind the curve, and it's going to be ugly for a lot, a lot of companies. And it's been ugly, but it's going to get uglier. But not all companies. I can see the difference in technology. It was like, technology's getting there. No, well Amazon's closing in, it's all time high again. Not Amazon, but Apple, then Amazon's starting to run up. Compare that to Facebook and PayPal, wow, what a difference. Seeing separation in healthcare, even biotech now, a lot of those names that got destroyed, some of them coming back, including one of those names in our CRA portfolio, which we bought at a 60% discount to where its high was and it fell, I think 20% now bounced (28/35)
back a ton, but holy cow. Just volatility, craziness. Oil and financial should continue to do well with inflation. Gold, what a day on Monday, great day. And Bitcoin, surging off its lows. You know you get at the bottom at 32, 33 when Peter Schiff says it's going to zero again. I was waiting for that, waiting for that. Everybody is, and then boom, right back to 43, 44. Well above 40 again. I'm poking fun, sorry, I have to poke fun. C-pokes fun at everybody else. But you're looking at a different market with these expensive stocks, these super expensive names, companies without earnings, company weak balance sheets, you're going to have to avoid. These names are going to be out of favor for a while, as long as the Fed is raising rates tightening, which could be well into next year. So position yourself accordingly and hold on tight because inflation, the pounding is down your throat guys, inflation for nine months. It's the one problem that the government can't throw money at to fix. It (29/35)
has to do the opposite. They could throw money during the credit crisis, you could throw money at immigrants, you're China, things go bad, throw money at it, pay off people's debt, whatever. Inflation is the opposite, you have to take money out of the system, which means less leverage. It means borrowing costs go up, and you borrow money to help grow your companies. That cost gone up significantly, which results in much slower returns, which kind of should be expected after we had three years. You know what the returns were for the last three years? So you're looking from 2019 to 2021. We're looking at 28% returns, 2019, 18% returns, and 31% returns on the S&P 500, where an index dating back to the 50s goes up around 8% average, total returns with dividends annually. Those are returns. What do you expect? What did you expect? Well, you saw 2005, six, and seven, or four, five, six, and seven, where home prices, which usually go up one and a half, 2% annually, went up 20% annually for (30/35)
four straight years. What happened? Credit crisis. You're going to get that pullback. When you get too far ahead, that rubber band stretches, you're going to pull back. It happens in both directions. We start in COVID when the market's really, really, really tanked. Yeah, they go down 20%, but 30%, 33%, holy cow, right? You stretch it, and then they bounce back. We need to come back a little bit here. You need to be protective. You need to play defense a little. Not crazy defense, just owning stocks that have good balance sheets, that are cyclical in the right areas, that are going to benefit from a rising inflationary environment, companies with high margins, great business models, good management teams, not a crazy amount of debt with no earnings. It's going to be a difficult market to make money for those of you who are not in the right names, which is asset allocation. Got to be very, very careful in this market. It's going to be a theme that we're going to be talking about for (31/35)
months, and months, and months, as we see this crazy volatility, especially during earnings season, which we still got a ways to go, especially in terms of small caps and a lot of big names, reporting later in the week, tomorrow. Daniel and I are going to break down some of these names in earnings, share some interesting new ideas with you, so definitely stay tuned. Love doing that with Daniel, getting some positive, positive feedback with Daniel. Love having him on. I've been covering my ass for a while since I've been traveling a lot in business. He's doing a great job with the podcast and loves it. But before I go, I wanted to say this. I wanted to say thank you. And of course, for the security token and things like that, but when we're looking at the podcast, which really helped build this company, this is the key, right? Building a podcast, people getting to know you through the podcast, it's more personal, it's not just an email. They know you're a real figure and you know a (32/35)
little bit about what you're talking about and you give a shit. It's a lot better listening to someone than just getting a random email from someone when you have no idea who's writing. When it comes to downloads, we reported a record amount of downloads for Wall Street Unplugged last month. Not sure why. Apparently a lot of you out there like what we're talking about, like we're saying, which is really cool. And those that don't apparently also like to listen, but we really, really killed it last month. Blew out the numbers, blew out expectations, and I just want to say thank you. I really, really appreciate it. Either way, if you like us or you're one of those people that hate us and just have to listen to troll us and send us negative emails, which is okay. Either way, my promise is with this podcast, with Curzio Research, is doing everything I can to help you become better investors. That's the goal. No matter what. That is the goal. Everything that we could do. And we try to do (33/35)
that. We try to get in trends early. We're going to be wrong sometimes. The first thing I do is come here, admit when we're wrong. I wish we took advantage of oil. I was very bearish on the market coming in. I wish I didn't know it was going to come down that much and we saw a couple of portfolio holdings come down longer than we wanted, which is a little frustrating. We had a magnificent performance though in the years before that. But again, we can always do better. We want to do better. I think you learn more from your mistakes. That's why I like bringing them up, even though in our industry, it's like the ultimate no-no. Never bring up your mistakes. It's like politics. No matter what, you're never, ever, ever wrong. Ever. No. We're going to be wrong sometimes. It's going to be right more times if we're wrong. I promise I'll hang the microphone up. I won't do this anymore. And I'll retire, which I could retire if I wanted to. But I really love what I do. I love helping individual (34/35)
investors and I promise that's never going to stop as long as I'm doing this stuff. And I just want to say thank you. Thank you so much for all the support. If you have any questions at all, I'm here for you. Frank, CurzioResearch.com. Feel free to email me anytime. Again, really appreciate all the support. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's Thursday, April 7th. I'm Frank Gurzius, the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. A lot of movement in the markets, especially within oil and then Fed. Those minutes were released. I'm going to bring in Daniel Creech, senior research analyst at Curzio Research. Is that the name of this place? Curzio Research? I forget sometimes. What's going on? That's the sign we have on the door that I constantly say to take down. Not because I'm not proud to work here, but we're the Goldman Sachs. Not because we have anything to hide, but just so we should lay low, Frank. Lay low. Low is better sometimes, I know. I like that. Laying low is better than having some expectations. Because we share a (1/35)
parking lot with a couple other different businesses and I have no idea what their work schedule is, but it is not consistent. There's some days you can't get a parking spot and some days we are literally doing it once a year. I don't know what's going on. It's hilarious. It's ironic as hell. There's a business that sells weed or medical marijuana. I think it sells licenses. I don't think it sells weed. Is it a license? All I know is that the people that walk in there? Well it doubles as a rehab center too. Oh, does it? You see a lot of people limping in there and you kind of think, are they hurt and going in there? Or injuries and things. Yeah, it's nice. It's all kinds of stuff. My overall point to that was I can't imagine what people think about us because sometimes we're dressed well, sometimes we're dressed like we work out, sometimes we're carrying golf clubs, there's dogs, there's animals. I mean, it's hilarious. So people probably look at this sign and go, is that business? (2/35)
It's hella scary research. And if we actually research it and it's funny. Send us an email. What do you think we do here? Yeah, what do you think we do here? Let alone the people we share this wall with. Can you imagine what these builders think of us? Oh yeah, there's a custom home builder next to us too. So yeah, I guess place. But this, yeah, I mean, we've been here for a while now, I don't know, probably three or four years and it's just, yeah, we see businesses come and go. But it's nice. It's nice and it's quiet. I work late days, sometimes you're late, but I'm really late. And I like it because I come here, it's lit up, nobody's here, nobody bothers me. And yeah, it's just a nice isolated spot. And we don't have like a storefront, right, where people walk in off the street. Right, which is not, yeah. So taping, which is really cool. But yeah, it is definitely interesting. Anyway, got into a lot further than I think that I thought we were. Yeah. Yeah. So let's talk about what's (3/35)
going on on the Hill with the, you know, the US House of Representatives, Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight Investigations, while they held a hearing to grill, basically grill the oil companies while gasoline prices remain elevated, even though price for crude oil, the feedstock of fuels have dropped off of their highs from 130, say 100. But you know, they're ripping the oil companies apart because it's their fault oil prices are so high. And you've really been following this closely. I want to get your thoughts on this first. Yeah. I have to admit something here. I absolutely love these hearings because there's a little bit of something in here for everybody. Now I must set this up. The reason I love this, because I can handle this. And Frank, you know my heart, you know me better than most. It's not my desire to come across as cocky or arrogant. In fact, I try to not, I would almost try to come across the other way on that. However, on this topic, I can have full (4/35)
confidence because I am the perfect person to break this down because I am the guy that can handle this with laughter and not take it too seriously. Because if you watch this, only applying common sense rationale and try to go in here thinking that the people in power are trying to do what's right for everybody else, you would go insane and you won't be able to handle it. You'll go crazy. So I would recommend for the normal folks out there, a two to three drink alcoholic beverage minimum before you start diving into this stuff. That's my public safety disclosure. Why is that? Because they're idiots. And if you don't have- Give us an example. All right. First of all, the title of it is this hearing before the subcommittee and oversight investigation committee on energy and commerce, US House of Representatives is titled gouged at the gas station, big oil and Americans pain at the pump. That's great. All right. Now I will kick things off because the people that were up there from Dev on (5/35)
Energy, Shell, I don't know if you have the list, ExxonMobil, I know I'm missing a couple. There was a gentleman not in the oil and gas business more like a, he was a retired, I'll pull it up here in a minute. I don't want to give him, because he had some great points. He wasn't as part of the oil and gas. He was just trying to explain in data and detail on why we should be doing more US production versus relying on global partners, whether they be allies or not. But the people that were brought up here, and we've talked about these companies, we've been huge on Dev on, we've been huge on Exxon, which is in a dollar stock club. We've talked about pioneer natural resources. And that's who I'm going to start with here today because the opening statements, these guys knew what they were going into and there was one woman from Shell or something. But anyway, these guys know they're going into an arena where they're not welcome. This was totally split on party lines. If you were watching (6/35)
this, basically every Democrat that got a microphone in their five minutes, that's the other thing. These geniuses up on Capitol Hill, and these are both sides, Frank, they think that, hey, we're going to recognize you for five minutes and then you can get to grandstand and do all that. It was basically split on if you were a Democrat, you were bad mouthing them and blaming them for gouging, making near record profits, if not record profits, pulling at the emotional heartstrings of people. And then if you were a Republican, you were stating the administration's policies. And when President Joe Biden was a candidate and the specific quotes he said about ruining oil and gas and things like that, they were pointing to, hey, higher gas prices were before the invasion of Russia, involving or invading Ukraine and its policies, not just the initial spike of that. So the CEOs and representatives knew they were going into it, Frank. And I want to tell you this, this is why in the theme of (7/35)
jeopardy, like I did on Tuesday, we're going to give the answer as to why people need to give a fly in Florida about this. That's not my new thing while you're going flying in Florida. It keeps me out of the beef. I like you getting emotional. I'm telling you, I love this. So the Pioneer Natural Resources, this is a good quote, Frank, on the answer as to why you should pay attention and just the takeaway here is to own and have exposure to oil and gas and hard assets. Impressive drilling, low returns and volatile commodity prices combined with pressures to divest fossil fuel holdings cause many investors to reduce or eliminate their equity holdings in energy companies over the past decade. The energy, the industry, energy industry fell from representing, Frank, 12% of the combined market value of the S&P 500 companies in 2011 to less than 4% today. The reason that I have that circled on my notes in this printout and the reason you should pay attention out there is that that proves that (8/35)
the energy sector is basically left for dead from an asset allocating sector. It has gone to a such small percentage of the overall S&P 500, it is not a far stretch, in my opinion, to think that that will go higher, not continue lower from the 4% weighting or making up of the S&P 500. That means prices can go and continue to go much higher from here so investors need to take hold and invest in those companies in that sector to benefit. Would you like me to, Paul, would you like to join me on this, my little friend? I don't want you to keep going. I think it's entertaining as hell because I got some things to say too. I just think it's hilarious. I mean, guy, keep going. I'll go to my points in a second. Go ahead. Next topic here, the overall takeaway was the CEOs knew and they're politicians as well. They were smart in saying, hey, but the overall takeaway for individual investors is listen, you need to be exposed and invested in these areas and you need to understand the macro. When (9/35)
you go to vote, and I don't care how you vote, that shocks a lot of people. I really don't care. I wish you knew what you were voting for as long as you can explain why. I can agree or disagree. But at least know the reason behind things. And the big takeaway here is oil and gas are going to continue to be elevated because of policies and the major theme that disgusts me, Frank, is that one side of the aisle looks at this and says, hey, Frank, I can't wait till this massive transcript comes out because I want to search for the word patriotic. You've never heard more from one side of the argument say it's patriotic only to pay more to protect others in the high price of the pump. There is a huge headwind on investors in general on capitalism because over and over again these oil executives were drilled about share buybacks and dividends they pay to investors. The powers that be were telling them how to run their business. They have no idea how anything works. One representative called (10/35)
out a CEO and said, hey, if we do away with the federal gas tax, which is roughly 18 cents, will you pass that onto your customers? The gentleman pointed out, well, we collect that on behalf of the federal government and we give it to the federal government. If you give a tax holiday, we would quit collecting that tax in general. She then pressed, well, you would pass that onto your customers. He then had to explain, hey, let me try to be more clear. If you don't tax it, we won't even collect it. Therefore, they would say. The people making the rules are at least grandstanding here with billboards and different funny signs. A couple of the liberals had good signs, Frank, about the record profits that Exxon and Chevron and everybody had. A couple of Republicans had the stickers of Joe Biden pointing to me doing that and gas prices going high. There is a little bit of something for everybody. The takeaway here is you have a, capitalism is under attack. That ought to worry every investor, (11/35)
but it will result in higher asset prices. So benefit from it. Don't get punished by it. Frank Curzio I mean, for me personally, I love this. I love this stuff. It is entertaining as hell. I mean, they should call this like the politicians pretend to care about a constituents hearing. That's what they should be, right? Because they don't give a shit about us. We all know that. We all really know that. I mean, they're just going on and, you know, won't even go, I'll go over that in a second of the causes of higher oil prices, which is pretty obvious, but you're looking at the amount of money that we pay in taxes on this. It's like close to 30% when it comes to all the taxes. And a lot of that is like a low carbon tax and you offer programs and a greenhouse gas program, which is like 15, 20 cents again, underground tank storage, right? Fine. I get it. That's only 2 cents, but the federal excise tax is 18 cents per gallon. Yet the low carbon gas programs, that fee is 22 cents per gallon. (12/35)
That's going, that's taxpayers are paying all that stuff, right? So these guys would be yelling at the oil companies like it's their fault. It is a joke to me. I mean, look, you know, they're for pride, but they won't yell at Pfizer or anything. They won't yell at Pfizer that's pushing booster. By the way, for all the vaccines you've ever taken before COVID, how many booster shots did you need for those vaccines? Could someone answer that for me? Any doctors out there? Because now we're, and you see Pfizer commercial booster, but it's all about profits, profits, profits. You pulled a rug out from these oil companies, said you got to pay for carbon. You got to do all this. Then you said, okay, you can't drill. We're not going to let you drill as much. And the federal permit thing, it's funny because when you're looking at federal permits, it's the back and forth, right? So I don't care what political party you're on, right? I say that a lot, but when you're looking at the thousands, (13/35)
right? They're sitting on thousands of these federal permits, thousands of them. So when you're looking at 2,200 leases in court right now, that's what Western Energy Alliance is defending, 2,200 of those leases. And they're defending the companies, which is dozens, if not over a hundred oil companies that own those leases on the federal land, which cannot be developed while these cases are ongoing, right? And the reason why they're ongoing is because when you're on federal land, it's different guys. When you're on federal land, those permits are subject to environmental studies right off the bat. We all know how crazy that could become, right? You just have a guy with a grudge, hate this, hate whatever side, and I'm going to put up in court and make a big stink about it and protest. So it's a crazy process. Also they're subject to lawsuits by just about anyone, neighbors, municipalities, state, country government. So it's extremely difficult to drill on these. So while you have one (14/35)
party saying, well, we have 9,000 permits, what are you talking about? You can't drill. Okay. And again, depending on your politics, you may agree or disagree with what I just said, even though all those things are facts. And I get it because people are religious about politics. Ask yourself this, because if you have any common sense, any, ask yourself this. All companies are sitting on thousands of these federal permits. All prices have surged over a hundred dollars a barrel, which is whatever, four or five year highs, where the company's profit margins are absolutely massive here. So why the fuck are they not drilling on these permits on federal land? Why? Why wouldn't they be drilling on these if they were open? As an oil company, unless you hate profits, unless you hate money, they're doing everything they can to drill on these, but that won't happen. But the politicians will blame whoever they want to blame. You don't want to blame revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. (15/35)
Pretty big deal, right? Would have imported crude from Canada, which lowers our prices here. Or just so happens, I'm a believer. If you're a president, whatever happens with Bush, September 11th, if you're in office, it's your fault. Don't blame, oh, there's a party before me and a party before him and there's a party, because everybody plays a blame game. No one in politics wants to admit that, oh, this is me, my fault. Let me prove it, which I think will do wonders actually to actually just go on TV and say, hey, something is my fault and this is what we need to do to make it better. Right? Because that's normal. That's what we all go through. We all have ups and downs. That'll never happen. But when you're looking at Russia, which was the key to this with energy prices surging and we're leveraged to the world markets, guys, not just the US, we're leveraged to the world markets. This happened on the Biden's watch. So you could yell all you want and have these hearings or whatever. (16/35)
Again, there's an easy solution. Let the oil companies drill like crazy. We have the technology, open up these federal permits. They're in court. It's very difficult to drill on these, even from the context that I hear from. Make it as easy as possible. Become a major exporter. And we take a lot of those profits and we throw them towards alternative energy. It's a simple solution, but it'll never fucking happen. We all know that because the politicians are involved and they're going to pretend that they're there to represent the constituents and say, oh, well, the prices are higher. Oil companies fall in point because all the idiots don't want to do the research and actually look what's going on. That's why I think this is hilarious. When I see these politicians, you really understand what they don't know. And they know everything about the law because they love that. That's it. Right? They make the laws and most of them are lawyers. Things like this and just the economy, the stock (17/35)
market, when it comes to finance and the fact that they're so uneducated when it comes to this, most of these politicians, it's funny. It's very entertaining to watch this. And that's, again, I'm bashing everyone on both sides, but that's how I feel. Yeah. It's the reality is it affects everybody. This is why you pay attention to things like this. To your point on the drilling leases, President and CEO Rick Munkrie for CREF, I'm not sure, Dev on Energy, explained that permits like an APD or application for permit to drill, under normal circumstances, you basically try to get from ADP to drilling in five to six weeks. Fast forward, that's taking around six months now. So from five to six weeks to six months is a big deal. The other thing here to take away is that the only good thing about volatility and chaos, Frank, is that it speeds up the line of communication. So as parties, in this case, the party in power coming up to an election, they're going to have to get much more blunt and (18/35)
quit beating around the bush because they're running out of time to get their message across. You can get the sense of here, and I hope people watch this and can give us some feedback, Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, because there's a group of people out there, and I totally disagree, but I'm okay with them explaining this. There's a group of people out there that think, hey, the world is coming to an end if we don't get off oil and gas, and to everybody that's being hurt because of higher prices, that's just part of doing business. That's the cost of doing business, and the bigger issue, the bigger goal is better than you. That's where the patriotic left, ironically, came to the hearing today. They were talking about you oil companies ought to be patriotic and quit taking so much profits. Forget about the dividends and shareholders and big shareholders and the retirements and the pension plans and all that to have it. So you have to be very shallow when you're discussing this. You only (19/35)
want to grab onto one thing and keep on and take the ball and run with it. We can have fun with this. Like I said, you got to take this with laughter because if you don't learn to laugh about this, you will absolutely go insane and it'll drive you nuts. So I'm going to create a watch list of just these couple of companies on there. We're going to track their performance from here, Frank. It should be a fun whirlwind show, but please use any pullbacks to have exposure into this sector going forward. One last thing here too, because they're trying to say which price... You're looking at oil prices have come down. They have come down off their highs, 130, a little bit below 100 now. So wire prices coming down at the pump, and they haven't really come down at the pump, at least by me. I can't speak for every single state, but I'm pretty sure across the board, we haven't really seen them come down. So they're grilling BP, Chevron, Shell, and these guys are like, look, no one person dictates (20/35)
the price. It's a market. So in the market, these are the people who own the retail stations, whatever it's Circle K, if it's 7-Eleven, these are the people that dictate that. So those are the people, if you're really concerned about why that's not happening now, why they're not going lower, or why they're pushing lower, those are the people you need to grill because those are the people who really could set the prices every place. And that's what you see in all the gas stations. So Exxon, Shell kind of got out of that business a while ago. That's what you really have to focus on, so retailers, because I'm seeing it even here where we have lots of gas stations, and there's like a 20 cent difference, 25 cent difference in some of these areas, which is maybe two, three miles from my house compared to here. How's that possible? The same truck is coming to deliver, right? So it's not like, yeah, they should all be the same within your area, within a couple of miles, and they're not. That's (21/35)
a big difference between 20, 25 cents, but that maybe just you're grilling the wrong people here. It's great to grill these guys. I get it. I understand it. Politics, grandstanding, I get it, but it is kind of funny. It is kind of a waste of time because when you look yourself in the mirror, the reason why oil prices are really high has to do with a lot of politicians and less with these oil companies right now. Yeah, absolutely. But hey, it's been through boom and bust. They lost a lot of money overall, aggregately, during periods. Listen, and I'm not just defending these oil companies blindly. I'm not saying that they haven't made mistakes. They haven't done stupid things. That's not the takeaway here, so don't go there with me. I'm simply saying there's a lot of wiggle room here and I love the yes, no questions from both sides of the aisle. Like I said, these things are just, these are good theater. It's just unfortunate that it has such a drastic impact on our lives. Yeah. And (22/35)
you're looking at oil companies across the board, Pioneer being in this conversation is great to show you how big Pioneer is coming, which is one of the largest shell companies. Wow. They're amazing. You look at Devon Energy, which has been a fair fraud, you recommend Exxon on this site plenty of times. I mean, this specialty place as well, in smaller plays. How funny is it if you're Enron, sorry to interrupt, if you're Exxon, excuse me, not Enron. Enron. Close. If you're Exxon, you get these new board members, the Greenies, because BlackRock's throwing their weight around. You start putting out every comment you can make about environmental, social, and governments to please everybody, and what happens? You still get dragged in front of the House Committee and you're still yelled at. There's nothing you can do. Proving you can't win. So quit bending to the thumb of these people. You can't win. Just do what's right for the overall average American, please. That's my plea to these oil (23/35)
executives. Big oil and big tobacco got thrown around in yesterday's hearing. That was hilarious. It's just all about pitting those against one versus the other. So it's stock, it's shareholders versus the little guy. Why isn't the takeaway here to everybody buy stocks? It should be. That's what I'm saying. How do you participate in the capitalist system? People get pissed off at banks. They do great in the inflationary environment. Buy the stock. Take the money out of, not all your money out of savings, but why not have, if you buy the stock, you're getting an interest rate and you're letting inflation, now you're playing the inflation trend instead of it working against you by just keeping your money at these banks, which they're charging you fees at, leaving the cash. Another thing you brought up, and I think we're going to have to, because this is going more than expected, I want to really get into the Fed balance sheet. I'll do that tomorrow, frankly speaking, for you guys, all (24/35)
you guys that are subscribers and paid subscribers. Frankly speaking, that goes directly to emails on iTunes, but I'll break that down because that's moving the markets right now at the Fed minutes. You brought up the cigarette companies, and that's personal to me. My dad died of lung cancer. He maybe tried to quit for so many years, he just couldn't quit, and that was part of it. Guys, it's all about money. It's that simple. We know that cigarettes cause cancer. We know that if you smoke, lots of bad things could happen to you. We know all the facts. We know all the figures. Why are we still selling cigarettes? Because they make a shitload of money off the taxes. That's why they won't remove it completely. They're able to fine these companies tremendously, and they just generate that revenue. If it really was like, hey, you know what? We're going to put our foot down, and they crush the industry as it is, but hey, no smoking because it kills you. It causes cancer. We know it or (25/35)
whatever. Again, I hate the fact that the government dictates anything that you should do because I believe in free society, but the reason why they don't go totally to that side is the amount of money that they're making, and they're making a fortune off of cigarettes. It's the same thing with oil. They're making a fortune off of this. They'll go up there and argue and yell, just like the example you gave with the guy arguing, hey, if we get rid of the tax and stuff like that. To me, it's just funny, and the more you look into it, the more pissed off you get, and I think that's the point of all this shit because you can't be in the middle. In today's society, in a woke society, which is basically a terrorist organization being woke. It really is. They force shit into shit. It almost makes you that, hey, I support the gay community, transgender community, but I don't support a guy who's swimming in an event that's crushing women, that it's cheating, but if you say that you don't (26/35)
support that, all of a sudden you're lumped into like, oh my God. Like, don't say gay bill. It has nothing to do with not saying gay. It has to do with teachers. It has to do with our teachers not teaching third graders and second graders about our genitals. That's what that bill is. Don't say gay from it. It's all political. It's hilarious. I thought that bill was trying to encourage people not to have children. Holy shit. I mean, that's what the bill is. Wait a minute. The parents are there, right? Yeah, parents. I don't want to stress. Teachers are stranger. You don't know who a teacher is. Yeah. Some of them, oh, I know my teacher. No. Some people do. Most people don't know their teachers. I don't know anything that my teacher does outside teaching my kids. I don't know what hobbies are. I don't know. She's crazy. I don't know what club she's going to. I have no idea. Do I want them teaching my eighth grade? Not my eighth grade. I want them teaching my eight year old, seven year (27/35)
old kid about their genitals and about gender. Are you crazy? That's what that's what the funny thing is. That's what Disney is going all in on. And they are the biggest family organization that makes the most. And that's what they're fighting with. There's no case. Don't say gay bill. That's what it's about. And for me as a parent, I'm looking at this going, holy shit, no way. Don't go near near that young with those. Can you want your teachers? You're forcing your teachers to do that. So for me, when I look at the politics, it's designed to make you so pissed off that you have to choose sides. And sometimes we all fall into that trap. But instead of choosing sides right there, what you and I always say is choose the way you're going to make money on it for you and your family. Pfizer is it. Listen, they gave Pfizer the green light booster shots for everyone. Let's go. But what was the percentage? What the hell was the percentage for the kids? I mean, the kids don't even need this. We (28/35)
know. We know. The percentage down tremendously in terms. And they're like, oh, make sure you give your kids the vaccine and a booster. What are you talking about? So it's all about money. We've seen it with COVID. Now we're seeing so many things come to light. But when we really look at the politicians and what side they're going to take, how do you make money off it? Because it's really not that difficult and a lot of people don't look at it that way. And it's easy to make money that way. Just like we said, the banks, just like we're saying with oil companies, oil prices are probably going to continue to go higher and higher even though they're bitching about it. How do you make money off of this, off of what the Fed's doing, whether you agree, whatever side you are. At the end of the day, if you push politics aside, which is so hard to do in today's environment because it's always in your fucking face every second with social media and everything that you do, you can make a lot of (29/35)
money in this market. And the most important thing is you and your family. That's the most important thing. That was the most important thing in my life. Taking my daughter to the Kansas game last week. That was the most important thing in my life. Everything got put on hold. I'm like, this is an experience. I want her to go. It's going to be fantastic. That's how everyone should live. Not all the time. Don't be irresponsible. Don't leave. But that's what we do this for. If you put all that shit aside, you can really make a lot of money. And Daniel, you and I have been providing lots of free ideas on this and even on our paid newsletters. And yeah, there are lots of ways to play this instead of just going up to the rooftops and shouting. Yeah, by the people that were dragged in front of the hearings today. Yeah, why? Why is this whole event taking place? Why is it taking up time at CNBC? Why? Nothing's going to happen. The other thing on that is, remember ocean engineering, the (30/35)
offshore kind of robotics, underwater, deep drilling things. That's an interesting sector. I haven't seen that too much. I know a couple of ... I'm surprised they haven't gone up more. The rigs, Transocean. I think there's something to that to at least keep an eye on now and hopefully that'll make its way into a recommendation because I don't, again, I don't want to assume that that's just going to happen, but just following everything the way the path leads, I do think that the path of least resistance is for them to catch a bid and get some momentum behind them at some point in the future as long as prices continue to stay elevated, which everything we're seeing right now leads to that. It's so surprising too because if you look at 2019, and I have a chart up here guys, of Transocean rig, this is coming to a file for a very, very long time on the biggest deep water ocean drillers and you look at their stock price. I mean, it was $13 in 2018 and it was, right before COVID it was $7. (31/35)
It's $4.30. That's impossible. Yeah. I mean, how is that ... Probably a ton more shares outstanding and all that stuff too to stay afloat. I mean, it's not Apple's Apple's comparison. I just want to see where Exxon is. Look at how much Exxon. Exxon is flat over that time. The stock's still down tremendously. This is we're looking at a five-year chart, Exxon's actually up 1%. This stock's down 65% where oil prices are the highest they've been for five ... I don't get it. I got to look at the balance sheet and then it's probably horrible and that's why. If you're looking for oil, that's a good place to start searching because that's one of the areas within oil that haven't really taken off. Some of them are off their lows, but have taken off like a lot of these other names have. Just trying to generate ideas for people out there to do their own. If you would, I hate doing this, Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, it would be an interesting poll. Do you blame oil companies for the high price of (32/35)
gas or do you blame politics or do you blame Putin? That's easy. Three choices. One, two, three. Okay. Frank, CurzioResearch.com said it to both of us. I'm curious to hear too. I want to hear your thoughts on it. Yeah, I would like to know. If you blame oil companies, I'm not going to call you an idiot or stupid. I disagree, but please send it. Yeah. Who do you blame? Listen, they're for-profit organizations that make profits in these areas and maybe there's a little bit they could do, but you can't just oil prices are higher based on a lot of these policies that have come out and then you have a war thrown on top of that regardless. If it was Republican or Democrat, whatever is in office, that's taken place, which has a lot to do with this. Just to jump all over these guys and have a hearing and take up this, when nothing really is going to get done, it's just, hey, it is what it is. I'm going to see that poll and we'll report back to you on that. Daniel, listen, thanks so much for (33/35)
joining me on Thursday. I know Wednesday is your day, but that's awesome. I really, really appreciate it, buddy. I know you'll come back pretty soon. Absolutely. See you guys next week. Cheers. All right, guys. That's it for me. Again, frankly speaking, I'm going to break down everything on the Fed. The Fed minutes should be no surprise. Just a quick preview that's going to be for our subscribers is that the wishful thinking of the Fed being dovish is hilarious because they have no choice at all to be hawkish at this stage. We're seeing it from every single government. That's why you're seeing all the minutes that come out. Everything is going to be, hey, we have to reduce the balance sheet, which I'll break down. What was it? 9 trillion. Now they're saying they're going to shrink it by 95 billion a month or something like that. I'll break down the figures for you guys. Again, that's going to be for, frankly speaking. That's not an I2. It just goes to our paid subscribers. What (34/35)
newsletter you subscribe to, even their cheapest, which is $4 or $5 a month, I believe, for Dollar Stock Club or for the largest ones, which are thousands of dollars, which you get premium services and stuff like that, you get access to that podcast, frankly speaking. For you, you'll see me tomorrow. For everyone else, I will see you next week. Keep those questions coming. Frank at CurzioResearch.com. Have a great weekend. Take care. Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media, to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Mainstream. How's it going out there? It's December 14th. I'm Frank Gursio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. So as we approach year-end, like always, the largest research firms, which the Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan's, Morgan Stanley's, they provide a 2022 forecast. And I want to go over these forecasts with you since I know many of you might not have access to the data. Maybe you'll hear a data point on CNBC or be able to read it, but having access to these reports and seeing where they're coming from, I wanted to go over a lot of this stuff with you. And the reason is you need to pay close attention to what the sell-side analysts, these are called sell-side analysts, are saying about the economy, (1/35)
different sectors and stocks, because that's usually the status quo. So if you can prove through your research that these forecasts are going to be wrong, and I'm talking about to the upside or the downside, that's how you make huge returns. Because by doing that, it means this data, right, if your research is correct, it's not being priced into the market. So a good example of that was say in February 2020, when I was reading the research channels, this is why I became more and more bearish, because I felt like people weren't seeing what I was seeing and what I was hearing through amazing contacts and interviewing people in China and Italy. And again, this is before the markets crashed, right, because they were close to COVID. So everyone thought it was going to be quick downside followed by strong rebound. And when I say quick downside, it was Goldman and Morgan Stanley predicting a quarter, one quarter of weakness, they were comparing it to other past pandemics. And this turned out (2/35)
to be much, much longer than expected, right, over four quarters, five quarters. We're still dealing with some of that stuff now where we still wear masks and it's impacting the economy in certain areas, especially in New York and California and also international travel. I mean, this is still going on now, COVID, right? They said it was going to be like one quarter and we're going to be fine. For me, I thought differently since China actually closed its economy. Apple, Levi's, you're looking at all these major brands were closing in China. And this happened like the first week in February, two, three weeks before the market really started to crash. China accounts for 40% of the world's growth. We're trading at crazy, crazy valuation, very expensive valuations, which is fine. However, if you notice right before that point, that last quarter going in, GDP was slowing. It was under 2%. So we're seeing a slowdown with premium prices. Now you're taking away the growth component, the growth (3/35)
component of the world, out of the equation. They're closing their entire economy. So for me, I thought it was inevitable stocks fall much more than, I mean, that quick pullback. Some of them were saying, hey, we could see a 5%, 7% pullback. That's what they were predicting in the pandemic. And it turned out to be 30%, which is a little bit more than I expected. I thought we were going to get nailed, but not that quick at 30%. Now, why did it fall that much? Because all the major institutions, they were on the wrong side of this trade. They were forced to adjust and sell positions while these positions were pushing lower. Think of like a short squeeze or something. If stocks going higher and higher, people are like, oh, we got to get out, we got to get out before it goes high, because they're short. So that's what a short squeeze is. That's GameStop, AMC, and all these things. But when you could look at these sell-side forecasts or any forecasts, right, if everyone's completely bullish (4/35)
on a stock, that means sentiment is very, very high. That's what we saw with what? We saw that with Palantar, we saw that with DocuSign. DocuSign fell 40% in one day, tens of billions in market cap wiped out. So if you're doing your research and saying, wow, these guys who are all involved in this stock are wrong, either upside or downside, that's how you make the greatest returns. So I want you to pay close attention to these forecasts. They're very important, because if you could find a hole in their research, you could make very, very strong, exceptional gains. So starting with Piper Jaffray just came out. They said they surveyed 91 chief investment officers across multiple verticals, primarily within North America. And this is all technology. And they said, overall, 2022, the IT budgets are anticipated to be up over 5% year over year. That's a major, major increase, because they went up 5.4% in 2021, coming off of numbers that people were worried about from 2020 and COVID. So (5/35)
despite the uncertainties, despite inflation, you're looking at the biggest technology companies in the world are still spending and plan to increase their budgets on IT, which is interesting. You look at Stifle. So they say three potential correction catalysts, and these guys have the biggest downside number in the SP 500. So you say three potential correction catalysts. So they say cyclicals versus defensives and equities are extended. So basically they're saying money is rotating into the defensive sector of stocks. They also say the slowing global money growth, especially as the dollar rises and tightens liquidity. And also they're talking about China, because China, the past tightening, despite easing now after the era grade, weakens global growth. So they're predicting the SP 500 would be in the low 4,000s by Q1 2022. I mean, Q1, that's a couple of weeks away, starting a couple of weeks away. And that's 10% downside from the current levels. It's a pretty big number. Goldman Sachs (6/35)
says risk of recession appear low, continue to recommend high growth and high margin stocks. They say as high margins are a signal of quality indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their lower margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions. So they see the SP 500 going to 5,120 in 2022. That's about 10% upside. Just give you a little bonus here. Some of the stocks they like, what they're talking about, the high margin stocks, Mastercard MP materials, that's MP is a symbol, United Therapeutics, Universal Display, Nvidia, Marvel Technology, Autodesk, notice how many technology companies are on this list. These are usually high margin companies. Alphabet, Meta, Insight, Booking Holdings, Palantir, these are some of the names that they like high margin companies going into next year, because look, those are the companies that are going to have pricing power. JP Morgan, 2022, the year of a full global recovery and ends the global pandemic (7/35)
and return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. Their price target is 50-50, all right, 5,050. So we're looking at about 9% upside, pretty close to Goldman. So one of the things they do say is they say international equities, emerging markets, and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver two to three times higher returns in the US markets. That's a pretty bold statement. That's interesting. And then you have Morgan Stanley saying the surge in global inflation has investors fretting about future growth, but their economists say prices, those surges, that inflation is going to subside, making the way for 4.7 GDP growth in 2022. Its price target on SP 500 is 4,400, so we're looking about 5% downside. So let's throw all this, right? These are the expectations going into 2022. So let's put all this together and I'll break it down, show you what it means. If you take the highest and lowest forecast, you're looking at 10% upside, 10% downside. (8/35)
I'm going to say from someone who's been doing this for a very long time, that's one of the widest margins you'll ever see going into predictions next year from major firms. You might have a boutique firm that says, we're going to crash 30% or whatever, it doesn't matter. But in some firms, you see 3%, 4% returns and maybe 7% returns. I mean, outside of COVID, because we saw a massive decline followed by all this money printing and stimulus, and so those returns are high. But usually going back historically, 4%, 5% returns, maybe 8% returns and maybe 2%, 3% to the day. You don't see that big of a margin. It's very, very wide margin. And what does that tell you? It tells you how much uncertainty we have in the markets right now and what we're going to see in 2022. So when I look at that data and I go over my forecast, this is my forecast. I think we're going to see at least two to three separate 20% pullbacks. And this is going through 2022. I think investors are going to try to buy the (9/35)
dip, like they've been doing for five years plus, like buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. But it's a different market now. And when you have low interest rates, you have the Fed there to pick you up and everything's going to be okay and just throw money at everything and hand checks to everybody. Listen, buy the dip makes sense. It makes sense that a lot of these companies have premium valuations. It makes sense of how much liquidity is coming into the market, where we saw a record amount of deals flow, a record amount of assets trading at record highs. It makes sense for those conditions. However, in 2022, we're going to see a fundamental shift. I say a fundamental shift because that's what we saw in 2020. It was a fundamental change in the marketplace. In other words, I'm not saying that the market's going to fall because they're expensive. You could say that for the last five years on a historical basis. Again, people weren't factoring in low interest rates and the Fed and fiscal policy just (10/35)
throwing money at everything. So, you deserve stocks to be trading higher than the normal, which is probably 17 times forward earnings over the past 10 years. And we were trading at 2021 times forward earnings. But the fundamental shift we're looking at in 2022, it's a different landscape. It's a different animal. So, you're looking at the Fed that's going to begin raising rates. My forecast, at least four times. At least four times next year. They have to start. I mean, you saw Powell. You're going to see him Wednesday. He's going to talk about it. I mean, you're going to see a tapering much, much faster than expected. You have to. I don't know if you saw inflation numbers. You look at me, the CPI, I'll cover that in a minute, and the PPI just came out today. But the Fed's going to stop buying bonds completely in a few months, right? Why? Because it's been brought on by massive, massive inflation it needs to control. So, you have the CPI up 7% year over year, which is a 39 year high, (11/35)
and producer price just came out today showing a near 10% increase in prices. We've never seen that in history, right? And I read that through several headlines, so you can double check that. But even if it's not, it's one of the highest ratings that we've ever seen on producer prices. That's how much these prices have gone up. But comparing inflation, the CPI, to the 80s, right? Because that's where really a 70s and 80s, which is the 39 year comparison, it's misleading. Because the index is calculated totally differently now. In fact, over the past 30 years, the government has changed the way it calculates inflation, and that's the CPI, more than 20 times. Why do you think they're doing this? They're not doing this because we want to make it more accurate. No, absolutely not. You really believe that? They want to make it more... No. They want to show mild inflation since inflation is by far the biggest risk to the market. It's the one thing the Fed can't control by throwing money at (12/35)
it. You have to remove money from the system. You have to deleverage. But in the 70s and 80s, the CPI included housing prices. But now we use a non-market rent for owners housing costs. That's what it is. Non-market rent for owners, that's the housing cost. Also today, the government makes the assumption that consumer spending habits change as economic conditions change, including rising prices. So prices rise and consumers decide to substitute that product, whatever. Say, I'm not buying a Snickers because Snickers are $3 now. And they were $1.50, just saying. I'm going to buy M&Ms now. It takes Snickers off the list as its basket of goods it covers. Think about that for a minute. This way it's not going to report those higher prices for that product. So I'm not sure how you measure inflation then. But if you're looking at Apple's to Apple's comparison, or the way we calculated inflation in the 80s, and if you compare that to today, inflation, the CPI, is at higher levels than it was (13/35)
back then. Much, much higher levels. We're at 7%. You want proof? I mean, it's not too difficult to find it. I mean, you could find it almost any place. But if you're looking at a basket of goods and how much these things have gone up, just look at used cars. You could look at what you're up 30%. You have beef, which is up 24%. You have gasoline up 51%. You have rental vehicles up 40%. Furniture up 12%. Bacon up 20%. Gasoline, again, up 50%. These are the numbers that you're seeing. These are the numbers that I'm seeing. These are the numbers that, for some reason, the Fed's not seeing. But for you to say that consumer prices are up only 7% is absolutely insane. You're basically the Fed's call us a bunch of idiots. But they do this because that's the new way they calculate CPI. And it's not really that new, but that's how they change it over the years. But going into next year, where I'm going with all this, you need to be concerned. We had strong returns in the market for three (14/35)
straight years. I mean, 31%, 18%. What are we up now in the S&P 500? 24%? Something around there, 25%. The market usually goes up 8% annually every year. And I get it, why it went up so much. And those are the reasons why we were bullish for so long. But now, with this fundamental shift that changes in the marketplace, these changes, we're going to see leverage come out of the market with the Fed tightening and tapering, inflation is going to continue to rise as companies are under incredible pressure to report higher earnings every single quarter. That's your job as a company. Every single quarter, we need to grow, grow, grow, grow. You know why? Because if you miss with the valuations that they're currently trading at, if you miss, you become DocuSign, you lose 40% in a day, PayPal down 40%, Peloton down 50%, 60%. So what does that mean? They're forced to raise prices. Some companies are going to get away with it. Large technology companies will be fine. They all have trillion dollar (15/35)
valuations. They control the world. They have pricing power. But how many companies are going to be able to continue to raise prices to the point where people are like, all right, I'm done, I'm done. I'm not going to Chipotle anymore. That used to cost me $7, $8 for a meal and now I'm paying $12, $13. I can't afford it. I can't afford it for the whole family. And I get it. But where these companies are raising prices is going to create even more inflation. And then you throw in the new variants of COVID, which are going to come out forever, and how the government reacts and the media reacts. I mean, that just creates another layer of uncertainty, which we know uncertainty is terrible for stocks. That's what we're seeing right now, right? A big mix. Omicron, looking at like 2%, 3% moves in the market, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And we're going to see things like that every single year going forward. But if you take all of that together, we're looking at a super (16/35)
risky market, probably the most risky market than any other time since the credit crisis. And guys, we're seeing the craziness right now. I mean, the major indices are holding up pretty well, down less than 5% from their highs. But if you look at the breadth of the market, it's extremely ugly. For example, you look at the NASDAQ. So NASDAQ has over 3,600 stocks in it, and it's down around 4% from its 52-week high. But the average stock in the NASDAQ is down 40% from its highs right now. If you look at the small cap 600, that's off about 6% from its 52-week high. Okay, not that bad. Had nice moves in the past few years. Yet the average stock in that index is down close to 25% from its highs. So if you're wondering why your portfolio is down 10%, 15%, but yet you're looking at the markets and they seem to be holding up, that's why. A lot of names are getting crushed. Plus, we're seeing stocks that underperform this year, they're selling off even more over the past few weeks, mostly due (17/35)
to tax-loss selling. You're more relevant this year. We're up 25% on some of those stocks, yet you're seeing lots of losers in your portfolio, probably more losers than winners because the top half is really controlling the entire market. Those five, six, seven trillion dollar valuations, they accounted for 51% of the gains in the S&P 500 since April. That's according to Goldman Sachs. It's crazy. So what are you doing? Well, all right, let me sell some of these things. This way I don't have to pay taxes. And you're seeing a lot of these names get hammered, especially meme stocks, AMC, DraftKings, Virgin Galactic, GameStop. Have you seen the moves in these names? So what's going on? And they're getting destroyed right now. I'm not trying to scare you. You know me, you listen to me for a long time, I'm not saying, well, the market's going to crash, crash, crash, crash, crash, because I want you to buy products and sell newsletters. I've seen that for 30 years for people. The dollar's (18/35)
going to lose its reserve currency status. The mark's going to crash 30%, 40%. Bullshit. I'm not one of those guys. I'm just saying there's times to be aggressive pedal to the metal, which for the past five, six, seven years, interest rates low, money flooding the market, everything's fine as the price is going higher, and there's times to play defense like now, which is going to be completely opposite. The Fed raising rates is a big deal. It's a huge difference between a 3% mortgage rate and a 5% mortgage rate. That's something you can identify with. We were at 5%, what, a couple of years ago? And we're just, we're at 3%, we're a little bit more than that on a 30 year. I mean, that's where we're heading. What do you think it's going to do to the housing market? You think people are going to buy as many houses? Absolutely not. They're going to refinance as much? Absolutely not. That's money coming out of the market. That debt that you need to service, it gets more expensive. So the (19/35)
days of having $80 billion cryptocurrencies that really have no use and no utility functions, the days of AMC trading at a valuation of where it was at 60, 70 or Virgin Galactic with almost no revenue trading at six, seven, eight billion, even it was more than a $10 billion valuation, that's crazy. That's crazy. When did I see revenue growth for that company? I don't know. How many ships are you going to get up there? How many? It's crazy, the business model. And the guys who invested in that already made their money. But again, I'm not trying to scare you. It's just going to be an incredibly volatile market next year. And to protect yourself, to protect yourself here, I suggest buying puts. Why? I could be wrong. Maybe the markets continue to go high. I don't have a crystal ball. But providing that insurance helps. You guys know we have a newsletter called Money Flow Trader. It's run by Jidea Terranova that does this. And over the next two weeks, I'm going to provide a special (20/35)
discount for this product. I'm going to provide 40% off, and also I'm going to give you a second year absolutely free. It's only going to be available to Curzi Research members, so this offer is not going out to anyone except for you. Okay, so the offer we never made before, it's cheaper, so we sold it. I know that sounds like a sales pitch. I'm trying to get you to buy something, and it's not. Because if you subscribe to the product, and the product is shit and underperforms, you're never going to buy anything from us again, and you know I'm in this for the long term, I've been in this industry the entire year. The reason why I'm pushing this is because you need to protect yourself. And when you're looking at the markets, and you're looking at this product, right, which buying puts, again that insurance has been a terrible strategy, the market hit new highs for the past two, three years, right, since we launched this product, it's said to have a banner year in 2022, because I'm going (21/35)
to predict a lot of triple digit winners. Why? Because Jidea logged seven triple digit winners when the market was crashing during COVID, seven of them, one of them as high as 500%, and more than 500%. That's what happened. Imagine seeing those types of gains when the market's crashing. I mean, what does that do to your portfolio? Especially if it crashes even more, that small percentage could be worth more than your entire portfolio. Recently, we've seen crazy volatility. She just took two more gains, locked in two more 100% winners. So if you're not interested in money flow traded, no worries, it's fine. You're like, oh, Frank's selling another, whatever. Do me a favor, learn about buying puts as a way to protect yourself. You need to hedge your portfolio here and be smart. Okay, it's a very easy strategy to do this through your online brokerage account, but trust me, by doing this, you're going to thank me. It's going to let you sleep at night, and we are going to see crazy, crazy (22/35)
volatile conditions. And remember this term, it's a fundamental shift, guys. We're not talking about a market that's expensive that's going to come down, and usually historically this happened. No, this is different. The Fed is going to get very, very, very aggressive raising rates, very aggressive raising rates. They have to. You saw Powell just throwing a towel, totally just the first time that I've seen them do that. It's the first time I've seen the Fed make a massive change that it wasn't predicting and holding your hand months ahead telling you that it was going to do it. When Powell had that meeting in late November, nobody, nobody thought he was like, listen, transitory is gone. We're throwing that word out, and we're going to start raising rates much, much sooner than expected. That was a huge, huge surprise. You saw it in the market. That was a big surprise. The Fed usually doesn't do that. Usually doesn't spook the markets like that, but that's a sign telling you that these (23/35)
guys finally are nervous about inflation, which you saw it produce a price index today. You saw the CPI a couple of weeks ago. They're at the highest levels in history, both of them. CPI is not a 39-year high, just went over the numbers. If you're using that Apple's-Apple's comparison, it's at an all-time high in terms of prices going up year over year, and it's much, much more than being stated by the government. Let's take a couple of your questions. First one is from Mike. He says, hey, Frank. After he has Cruz, but it's going to be cursed. CURZ is going to be the symbol of our token. He goes, after that token is listed on T0, we'll be publishing a performance update on a periodic basis like Aspen token. Is it going to be core lease, semi-annual? Would be great. It's probably going to be semi-annual at first, and then we'll do quarter as we build up, because it is a lot of work and building up the IR department and different divisions and stuff. But yeah, for me, it's always been (24/35)
about full transparency, even if we're not doing well, we're going to report our numbers, right? So we've been consistently growing, but that's how I see this market. I see this with security tokens replacing a lot of the stock market, especially when it comes to small caps and over-the-counter names. The cost to do this is much, much cheaper, as you guys know. It's a lot easier, a lot faster to come to the market. You don't need institutions. I don't have institutions investing in my thing where they're taking board seats and they're telling you exactly what to do, they're all short-term holders. I mean, a lot of these investors are the worst ones. Their job is to make quick profits and get out as quick as possible. I mean, that's not what we want. So for me, transparency is huge. And when people launch security tokens and they come to me and they say, hey, Fred, and they show me the details, and I can't find a lot of the things like their financials or what's going on, I really don't (25/35)
deal with them. I'm like, I can't help you. Because it's not doing this market justice. It's not going to help it grow as fast as I think it's capable of growing. So you need real companies, real people, no money grabs like we see in utility tokens all the time. Of course, there's great names within there, within the crypto industry. But I would say for most of them are garbage. I mean, you don't even know who's running the company, you don't know how much money they still have in their balance sheet, you don't know any of this stuff. They create this whole thing, this whole white paper, everything. This is a utility function and it has no utility function, which means the value, if the token has no utility function, it means that it should be worthless. It should be zero. Because the only thing that's tied to that valuation, it's not equity, it's the use of the utility. So when you're looking at cryptos or anything else, I mean, for me, security tokens, this is going to be massive. (26/35)
It's starting, exciting. I have a great interview on Thursday. With one of the heads of TZERO, so definitely pay attention. Really, really good stuff. And you're going to understand why it's not just me that's excited about this market, but why you're going to see so many companies use this new way of going public and disrupt the investment banking industry. Let's get to one more question here and it is from Joe. He says, Frank, what are the best sectors to invest in going into 2022? I like when people keep it simple. I like energy on this pullback. I really do. I mean, when you have companies forcing, not companies, but investment firms that control most of the stock, forcing oil companies to stop drilling, it means the price is going to go a lot harder. I think prices will surge over a hundred dollars a barrel. Even at current levels, these companies are trading to a huge discount compared to three, four years ago, when oil prices were at similar levels. And you're looking at their (27/35)
balance sheets are much more healthy, they cut costs tremendously. Now they're seeing massive growth. You're seeing how many energy names have you seen, not just reinstate their dividend, but are raising their dividends and paying special dividends. That's how much money they generate. Oil prices are through the roof. It's like energy on this pullback. Similar to Goldman, like high margin stocks because they have pricing power. So a lot of those names on that list. I focus on names, major growth trends, like EVs, ESG, Metaverse. And by the way, I'm going to the Consumer Electronics Show. First week in January, pay close attention. I'll be doing live broadcast through TikTok and also posting a lot of this stuff on our website, but pay close attention. I've been going to this thing for like nine, 10 years and innovation has been crap. It's all been, how do we enhance the current AI and 5G and streaming? And we haven't seen tons of innovation. It gets you excited. And we heard about EVs, (28/35)
but now it's here. The EV market's here. It's not just Tesla. You're going to see a lot of all these things on the road next year. Rivian got car of the year. They're starting to deliver right now. But I'm going to be interviewing a lot of companies, a lot of these trends looking into it. And this is the event where the most technologies go. Thousands and thousands of the biggest technology companies in the world, they all go there to launch their product. This is what they're going to launch over the next three to six months. They get all awards and everything and having the access that we have, the media access, again, because of you and podcasts and influencer and industry analysts and stuff like that, we have access to almost everything and anyone we want, which is really, really cool. So we're planning all those meetings now. So definitely pay attention because we'll find, trust me, I always do find diamonds in a rough. 2019, last time I attended, I told you Kodak. I didn't tell (29/35)
you why it was going to, why, but they had a major presence there. Insiders were buying. Technology was pretty cool. I wanted to look into it. I said, guys, you just might want to put this on your radar speculatively by, and I think it was like $2 and went to $10, $11, $12 or something. And you always find good IDs here. You're looking at more trends, crypto. I really love crypto, as you know. And crypto is, if you're looking at crypto, forget about looking at Bitcoin every single day and it goes down and then you're going to see the Peter Schiff tweet saying, it's worthless, it's garbage, and when it goes higher, then you have all the bulls and the Winklevoss twins and stuff like that. And I get it, right? They have, they're putting their money where their mouth is, right? Forget about that in short-term price movements. The biggest innovation is coming from crypto. It's going to come out of crypto. You're looking at DeFi, still in its infancy, security tokens starting to really, (30/35)
really take off. You look at NFTs are on fire right now. Holy cow. They're still on fire. People are like, oh, NFTs are the fad. It's not a fad. NFTs are not a fad. Dow, you're looking at the metaverse. The metaverse is going to flow through crypto. Look at the companies. Not too difficult to find. I don't want to give any away because we have one of those names in our crypto intelligence portfolio, which is up several hundred percent and several hundred percent over the past couple of months, this is the opportunity that you're seeing in crypto, gains that you can't really get in the market. You have to be in the right areas. You're going to see ups and downs. You got to be very, very careful. Don't go all in on anything. You know, if you're going to invest, say if you're going to invest, you know, a thousand dollars, if it's 250 and then another 250, if it comes down a little bit or, you know, whatever, but just scale into these names, because we have names in our portfolio, the (31/35)
average gain is up over 850%, the average gain. Talk about even with the losers in the portfolio. So we're looking at 20x returns on several of these, 30x returns, I think a one or two of them, a lot of 10x returns, those names, a lot of those names are down 20, 30% for us at one time. If you're looking at, you know, 2018, 2019, so use that volatility to your advantage because it's here, it's a $2 trillion market and institutions are late to the part, they're dying to get into this industry right now. Those institutions are dying and this is going to be their opportunity to get in. I mean, you're looking at the results and you're looking at numbers from like Silver Gate and Galaxy and the partnerships that they're signing with investment banks. I mean, this is the early state. We're still very, very early into crypto, but most of the innovation is going to come out of there, especially over the next decade or so. You have to be invested in this. You have to learn about it. Take the (32/35)
hours and learn about it. It's not that easy. But you'll still be well ahead of the curve as most people, believe it or not, are still not invested in crypto. I think it's crazy. I mean, it's one of the biggest returns of my life in crypto over the past two, three years. Also, dividends should be huge next year. You're looking at conservative funds, trillions of dollars, they're going to create defensive names that are raising their dividends, so you get some I like, Morgan Stanley, Devin, Alcoa, I mean, Newmont Mining, since they're generating massive, massive cashflow, gold, over $1,700 an ounce, I think by 2023, I'm pretty sure it's Morgan Stanley, but don't quote me on that, I think it's Morgan Stanley has a $2,200, a $2,300 target on gold, which is interesting. But even at $1,700, $1,600 an ounce, these guys, they're all in costs of well under a thousand. And now with gold really depressed, they're able to purchase some amazing products and projects at dirt cheap prices. Put a (33/35)
nice dividend name there, Newmont. These guys are paying dividends, generate massive cashflow. Those are some of the names I like. So again, a lot there, a lot of names I threw at you. Going to go over some more forecasts next week, but you want to position yourself. You have to play a little bit of defense. Don't get crazy. I don't have a crystal ball, like I said. I don't know if the market's going to go up 30% next year or not. I do know that there's massive risks in the marketplace, and you're seeing that right now with a lot, a lot of stocks getting nailed, even a couple of ours in our portfolio, right, we want to pay attention to our stops. They're getting nailed, and some of the ones that were down are getting hit hard because tax law is selling. But even those leverage names, some of those leverage names that you're used to hearing the DraftKings and Virgin Galactics, GameStop, AMC, all these crazy names where insiders are actually dumping their shares, AMC, the insiders (34/35)
dumping like crazy, they're almost done dumping all of their shares. You got to be careful. You got to be careful going into next year because the Fed's going to be super aggressive, and it's going to result in a lot of high risk names getting hit. So guys, questions, comments, feel free to email frankkurzeoresearch.com. That's frank at kurzeoresearch.com. Really appreciate all the support, and I'll see you guys tomorrow with my buddy, Daniel. Take care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream There's Tuesday, May 10th. I'm Frank Curzio the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast where I break down the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So I just spent the weekend in New York Just typical whenever I go away the market usually crashes it crashes further My wife planned a quick trip for me for my 50th birthday which is still about a week and a half away, but we had to do it this past weekend because Every single weekend that I have his booked for the next two months with my daughters and playing sports and traveling which I know a lot Of you do as well It's insane now my oldest plays basketball my youngest gymnastics, and she only has like another two tournaments left But those are usually a little bit further the rest of in Florida when it comes to basketball for (1/35)
my oldest But I had no idea what my wife was planning and you know we just went away we had babysitter for the kids She kept it a secret till Friday night where she took me to the Nassau Coliseum to the WWE SmackDown which was absolutely amazing and Man these guys put on a great show it was incredible It was sold out the theatrics that the sound that the music Blasting and people had earbuds in because it was so loud that it's kind and I was blasting Man it is an amazing amazing show and yes, yes, I know it's fake, but it's so cool It was just amazing how packed it was right? It's just I Couldn't believe how popular wrestling still is and you'll buy these expensive Belts and wear it them and dressing up like the carat. I'm talking about adults were doing this and they'll bring their kids and stuff But uh I guess it kind of makes sense when I think about cuz when I was a kid I was a huge wrestling fan, so is my wife, and that's why you know she took me and I grew up in Ridgewood Queens, (2/35)
and they had a place called a Ridgewood Grove back then which few people I'm sure heard of but We used to go there all the time in Ridgewood and they had some of the best matches and wrestlers they had Andre the Giant George animal steel the wild Samoans Jimmy superfly snooker was the most exciting still in his day, man I think this is so exciting Jumping off the top rope and just going crazy and you can see me like do what he used to do on top ropes Which was cool and I was just a diehard and yeah, that's when the WrestleMania is just started for WWF and They used to have them every month at Madison Square Garden, and I should attend a lot of them So this was back in 1983 and I remember December 1983 Bob Backlin. He was huge champ He lost the belt to the Iron Sheik. It was the biggest enemy in wrestling, and it was a massive story because Bob Backlin didn't lose about in six years so people like crying the audience. I can't believe Bob back So dramatic Then the next month, I think Bob (3/35)
Backlin was no longer WWF. I think that's probably why he lost the match and They said in a surprise showing who's gonna fight the Iron Sheik And this is WrestleMania 6 and Hulk Hogan came out in the place erupted and he beat the Iron Sheik and you know won the belt heavy, but and That was it. It was that changed the face of wrestling forever and for me Hulk Hogan is my man That's the number one interview right there that Michael Jordan like just a hero of mine when I was younger and just watching him But being there to see that it just makes it so much more powerful, which is really cool But he wasn't even on the card and from the come out and just really really exciting, but it was awesome entertainment as hell and then on Saturday which was the real surprise she plays prize dinner with my closest friends from my close friends who I know Basically all for 40 years one of my been friends with since I'm three I'm gonna show the podcast I'm not kidding and he was telling stories and (4/35)
stuff saying that you know Even that through for we weren't allowed to cross the street in New York and he was like, hey You want to play ball with throw the ball across the street? That's how long it's been But these are guys that I spent you know most of my life with and then we went to a local bar and Yeah, my friend owns it we went there and that's where the major surprise came because 25 of my friends I play basketball guys I've knew my whole life were there and man. We had a great time. We just drank laughs and karaoke You know talked about old basketball stories because we won lots of championships and leagues where we just have really really good team and Yeah, it was it was just amazing. It was amazing and you always say life's about moments I tell my kids that as well, you know, it's don't worry about the test that you didn't do good on and whatever You know if you just you have that opportunity it is when you remember like today Your 40s your 50s you remember the time did (5/35)
there's moments that you remember that are great a lot of them are irresponsible times We had fun. It's just exciting. I mean, this is one of the moments I'll never forget for the rest of my life. That was amazing to see all my friends from New York hanging out Just having fun. We used to go to that bar a lot when we used to you know After the game is all sweaty and just hang out maybe play Texas whole woman Just drink and have fun then go home late and get yelled at by our wives and stuff like that. But um You know, it was really touching. It was really cool. I remember that. So my wife earned some massive points. I told her that You know, she bought a month of me kissing her ass as a joke, but uh She actually did this on Mother's Day weekend, right? So the most unselfishness of unselfishness and Yeah, I was just really incredible that moment. She created so yeah. Yeah lover. Thank you so much. It was unbelievable That was something I'll never forget. Yeah, one of the best moments (6/35)
man. So it was really really cool Now there's several reason why I'm telling you a story because the markets are in freefall and this is a market podcast There's a reason why I bring up the story several so first talking to my friends Every single one of them. I'm not saying even so every single one of them They're all like you're so lucky to be in Florida. So lucky be in Florida didn't say that You know now they say they passed you after kovat and after everything has happened, but they used to make fun of me, but Every single one of them told me that they're moving out of New York It's either once they retire or the kids are out of high school going to college. They're gone. They're out and they also New York is a disaster now and I wanted more details on and it was interesting because I had out teacher on this podcast as a close friend out she's really cool and He wrote an article at New York is dead and then Seinfeld came out and said, you know You're talking about and whatever and (7/35)
tried to destroy him. New York's dead. New York is dead. It is dead You go to New York City. You're gonna see in a heartbeat It's more dangerous now than ever It's not gonna change right? It's just you know cops can't police criminals and criminals that get caught for federal and the felonies are out the next day doing it again so My wife actually went to a Walgreens and it was local Walgreens and Queens were staying one of the hotel It were at to get hand cream for her hands. It was actually cold in New York Wasn't for me even though it was my birthday, right? But it was I could picture the Joe's coming in but it was locked up and it was like just regular hand cream He's locked up in a big case along with tons of items And it took him like 10 minutes to come with the key and open it. I was like, you know, what's going on? Why is it locked up? We don't know right? We don't know even Florida. Like why is it locked up? She said well people just come in and steal it walk out come on mags (8/35)
still they're gone. That's it Which is crazy. I mean You know growing up in New York I mean one of the most important things even in New York or everything is safety, right? It's the safety of your family It's more important than money. It's more important than power all of us It's the safety of your families and if you can't be someplace where you're not safe You're gonna be forced to leave and I know a lot of my friends especially hedge fund buddies that live in New York City They're gone. They're out of it They don't go to New York City and everyone even my wife she's telling me plan something New York I told I said look it can't be in New York City. It could be in Queens. It could be in Long Island wherever I just don't want to go to New York City because you don't know, you know I don't want to go there and and you don't know what's gonna happen. It's that crazy So You know when I was asking them, what do you want to do? We want to cut they all want to move to where the weather is (9/35)
nicer, right? Which is normal when you retire, right? So you want to move to You know an area that's nicer that's Florida, Texas, Arizona Florida is a hot spot obviously because you know, it's East Coast closer and yeah they still feel like they could get you know, they're close to family and everything, but that's the spot right and especially with taxes and If you look at Florida home prices, I know mortgage rates a surgeon I'll cover that in a minute, but they're not just going up. They're going up like gangbuster there's no inventory everyone wants to move here and That's the option again for the people on Northeast Coast now why they moving here so not just a weather It's protecting their families and they say well I could protect myself and I could own a gun That was surprising like in New York, you can't have guns ever right? It's like, California That's why those areas are the worst right because you can't protect yourself and they're limited police The police can't really get (10/35)
involved. They don't want to get involved If they do get involved they rest the guy the guy gets out even on a felony even the guy who attacked Chappelle is out Right with it with a weapon attack them. He's out. He's out, right? So that that's the new system in these areas whether you know, I don't give a shit if you Democrat Republican What that's a new system in these areas. That's the new world we live in. So people are living leaving in droves and When you're looking at at Florida and the prices, I mean properties are here up 30% in the past few months That's on top of another 30% increase or the previous 12 months. Think about that. I said 30% over the past few months So My neighborhood people are listing their home price at 20% premiums to where they should be selling if you see it on Zillow Whatever you look at right over websites 20% premium and this is two houses in a row and I was like no freaking white less than 24 hours both of them gone in Contract pretty close to those (11/35)
prices. I imagine otherwise you wouldn't be in contract 24 hours. So If you're looking at the market you're looking at Regardless of how you feel about things. This is what's happening people leaving New York droves They go to place like Florida going places like Texas or whatever, but you're seeing home prices in those areas Even though rates are going higher Search even though interest rates going higher But there are REITs Recently recommended they have huge exposure to residential real estate in Florida, Texas, Arizona, right? Those are areas I've seen huge population growth and that will continue That may be a safe haven in this market right the residential real estate. Yes rates are going up But when it comes to these homes and you're saying well, what about the appraisal values because a lot of real estate agents I know say their appraisal values are coming in. You know, they're a lot less than what they're paying It doesn't matter paying cash. These people are coming with cash (12/35)
They have cash and you might say well million dollars a lot of money to him It's not a million dollars because that's a shack in New York So they're like, okay I could sell my house for a million and a half pay no taxes on it because I'm gonna roll it over to new house And now live in a great area that I love that's safer for my family that I could own a gun where the cops Encourage you actually encourage you the sheriff's of police encourage use and say if anyone comes in your home you shoot them in the head They actually say that here that's why no one's going into stores and stealing shit, right? Because you have to be able to protect yourself. The police aren't allowed to do it The police can't do it, right? And I don't even know if it's worth it for them, right? Because if someone like pulls out a knife and they punch the guy in the face and he hits his head They're going to jail for life right for murder or whatever. That's that's a new system, right? Black lives matter is gonna (13/35)
be all over them. Everyone could be all over them. That's the new system And I had two friends that are cops there that are actually going to retire pretty soon. Like they just can't take it It's crazy. I mean you're risking your life and then when you do the right thing You can still get in trouble so when you're looking at REITs That's an area and you're looking at New York and where people are moving I mean, that's an area where people go to Florida. Listen, that's the way it is, but that's one way to protect yourself When we look at the market as a whole We can tell you I mean the market sell-off is unbelievable. I Don't want to put this in perspective So now down 25% on the Nasdaq one that on Friday one of the most ugly days that you'll see another mass sell-off When 90% of the stocks Finish the day lower. Okay, that's called a down day of nine to one Whenever you have that it's usually capitulation along with the VIX, which is the fear index So that pushes higher things get more (14/35)
crazier It only pushes above 30 when it's crazy crazy craziness, right? Sometimes it'll go past 40 but over 30 is a signal that we're close. It's over 30 So you would think today you walk in and we'll see a little bit of rebound that didn't happen We're seeing another saw off on Monday, right so a Monday sell-off and This is following a big saw off on Friday and you're saying okay. What am I gonna do? This market is becoming uninvestable. Even the good names. I'm buying is starting to get nailed You're looking at companies like agriculture energy are getting nailed, you know Uranium looks great that got nailed by 25% after going up a lot I covered last week the reason why things continue to sell off is because of uncertainty that uncertainty is coming From the Fed and the Fed came out and we cover this last week But last week they came out and said look 75 base point hike is off the table and for some reason the mark went up a thousand points and saw that as a positive I Thought it was (15/35)
a negative. Okay the Fed again again You think they will learn painted itself in a corner and I think they made a huge mistake and you're seeing that It's why a thousand point rally lasted for what a day and every day since then we've been getting crushed Just about almost every single day Now when it comes to marketing when it comes to but you just you never want to limit yourself in anything Right the data changes you're gonna get aggressive and change, right? So they should everything should be on the table everything in this type of market The markets crushed everything should be on the table You see inflation running wild because if we still see inflation rising over the next few months Which is likely and I cover that especially with energy and agriculture the Fed May have to raise by 75 base points or higher and My take was last quarter raised by 1% cover that even into the meeting raised by 1% now Why we all know where you need to be We all know where you need to be. It's at (16/35)
least a 2.75% It's over 3% really but where are you now? We're at 1% So I guess the feds like hey, you know what? Let's take our time getting there, which is another 12 months You want to door 12 months of this shit of what we're going through right now the uncertainty praying hoping that inflation moderates I Mean I'd rather we get there sooner to those rates and inflation does moderate the Fed now has more ammo to lower rates right now They're in control of the market again And instead of the market controlling them because the market is controlling their every roof and they're at the mercy of the market Which is extremely dangerous and that creates uncertainty because no one knows what anyone's gonna do because the markets based on sentiment and feelings And where are people gonna stop selling? We don't know but we have some certainty like we did even in Colvin Hey, we're locking down everything but we're spending trillions and we're gonna give you loans and we're gonna You know (17/35)
help you guys that and then when did the certainty come during a credit crisis? All right, we was just a great move by By Bernanke and I know people hate the Fed and everything, but I thought it was brilliant. Hey, listen, we need stability Let's capitalize the banks and make sure everyone's money is safe and you have nothing to worry about and that's when sentiment changed That's when the market took off You need that we don't have that right now. We don't have any certainty We're still seeing all the same problems that exist and the Fed has no fucking clue what it's doing and it's frustrating as hell to See what's going on? Because even the nice thing the safe names are getting wrecked and it makes sense because even during the credit crisis What do we see? So subprime then, you know, the The next level and then the prime level started getting hit as well, right? Cuz then you start selling off because it's for selling there's leverage in the markets coming out You're selling (18/35)
everything going to cash You don't even care what you own because now even your good names are down 10 15 percent all of a sudden You're like I'm out of here because people just selling and going to cash I don't care but we still have tons of uncertainty as the Fed what remains behind the curve so we have inflation continued arising a dollar continue to move high ten year continues to surge and the Fed Said they're gonna continue to raise race through this firestorm, which is insane. It's something that's never happened history of this market We were raising when the markets getting absolutely destroyed Now let's take a step back here and look what happened after the last Fed meeting Let's actually let's look back after the last two Fed meetings because when we look back The Fed decided to raise by 25 basis points and this is a March and then 50 basis points last week So since March 22nd, since that 25 base point hike the Nasdaq is down 22 percent 22% we're down 22% It's a lot. This is (19/35)
March. I'm not talking about January. I'm not talking about November. It's only January Now I know hindsight is 2020 but hear me out because this is some of the things I was suggesting and again I could be wrong on this I could be I have no idea but I know what's going on is definitely wrong It's not gonna work But what if the Fed raised by 50 basis points last time because they tried to say 25 basis points and market is the same Thing went up a little bit then came down and then you know He did about face because all the governors came out and this was in March like, you know A couple days later after the weekend and said look your defense lose incredibly. We got to raise a lot faster Right, he tried to sugarcoat it hoping that if hoping that inflation came down hoping and it's not coming down, right? So you should have 50 basis points you didn't and then this time around I was like raised by 1% Now if you did that 50 and 100 basis point hike you'd be sitting at 1.75% which is close (20/35)
to 2% again Still a little bit far, you know a point away from a 2.75 Which you really need to be at but not that far because now you're only at 1% Now if the Fed did that and raised by those amounts again what I was suggesting and pounding table for that's saying I'm right or wrong But do you think the Nasdaq? Would be down more than 22% I don't think so. I mean 22% is massive we probably would have been down a little bit quicker, but I Think we'd probably be maybe around the same levels and we would have got wrecked 22% is a massive massive pullback in any major in anything is it down the S&P even a regular stock at 22% I mean, holy cow Do you think it'll be I don't know but I know that we'd be closer to the 2% level at least instead of being at 1% and now you're saying well, we're not gonna raise that aggressively. It's gonna be 50 That's what we see for the base point cut. So you're limiting yourself Right because the Fed will be closer and the closer they are 2.75 or whatever now (21/35)
is inflation moderates Now you have the power where you're controlling the market you could ease hold up on selling bonds, you know on lowering your balance sheet limiting your balance sheet right now and You know in a couple months from now inflation eases and then you know You could gradually start lowering rates, which is gonna be a positive that creates certainty and You say what about inflation inflation is definitely going to ease guys. I'm gonna keep going up I mean people are cutting back right now that 401k is down 30% they're cutting back They're gonna stop paying for discretion Have you seen that because the cure for higher prices is what higher prices as? Demands gonna start to wane because you know, if you want to buy a car Mercedes whatever at 75,000 and whatever the price is Right 75,000 and they're like, well, it's 85,000 95. It's it's 130 eventually you're gonna say, you know f that I'm not buying this thing, right? So that's the cure as the prices go higher you're (22/35)
gonna be like it's enough and you're seeing that across several sectors You really are you're seeing that in housing some areas in housing Which makes sense not in Florida not in the areas of people want to move in in, Texas and stuff like that But you are starting to see it even home builders talked about it because monthly payments. This is insane this that's insane Monthly payments just from the rise in interest rates at five point five percent now From where they were at like three and this is like six months ago monthly payments are close to $2,000 higher monthly payments of $2,000 higher that's money that comes directly out of your savings Paying the bills that's not gonna wait else. Do you think that $2,000 gonna fund? It's gonna go into a whole bunch of discretion. There's so many companies benefit gets filtered economy. No, I'm just it's just a payment I gotta make I gotta take out of my savings So obviously they're gonna cut back $2,000 someplace and that's just on a month on (23/35)
a monthly basis $2,000 I Mean you got to make what? $2,000 just to cover those payments with taxes in most states. I think about that just to cover the extra payment Things are going to start slowing. They are they seen it in cars. It seems been streaming services Electronics when a company like Best Buy says hey, you know, we're gonna start selling patio furniture and beauty products You know that the electronic sales are starting to come down. It's there the writings on the wall But for me when I look at that and say okay inflation is gonna moderate over the next six months I rather the Fed be at two and a half percent or close to that Then one and a quarter percent a one point five percent when one more rate It's just you know, why slow down the pace when the markets getting crushed anyway, just throw it out there Will it disrupt markets? Yes, but aren't the markets getting disrupted already again hindsight is 2020 If you knew the market was gonna crash the way it is. I'm sure the (24/35)
Fed might have Thought about it, but for you to say that's not on the table Now you can't do that because the Fed has a credibility problem and the stubbornness of people especially in power I mean you see it all the time right these assholes would never change their mind He's like I said it and that's it. You know, the great leaders change their mind on a dime when the data changes you change That's it That's how you run great businesses when you see things change you need to change or your AOL or your Blackberry and you know these stubborn CEOs like no no, no, no, it'll be okay. I'll come back. Boom. You're dead You need to change you need to go where the pucks going And you're not gonna see that you're not gonna see a 75 base point hike next time or the time after even though we're going To need that even though as we get into that inflation is gonna be higher You can see a dollar continue to rise to ten years. What three point one five going higher Remember three percent just hit (25/35)
three percent last week again. It's starting to surge again So yeah, the mark conditions are not great. The uncertainty is still there I wish I could tell you more but if you're looking for safety cash is king Reits leverage to residential housing maybe even a little bit of commercial but in the right areas where population growth you're seeing population growth That's gonna continue especially low inventory. That's a great investment to me, especially over the next 12-24 months Energy and AG I'd be buying on pullbacks. They're pulling back which You know, you're looking at these sectors price are gonna continue to rise no matter what I mean, we have a massive shortage Fertilizer we're looking at energy where if Russia decides to cut off natural gas, holy cow natural gas prices again that goes into chemicals That's why you're seeing with AG where these fertilizer companies that they're yeah, there's gonna be less food. I mean, it's a significant problem I covered it last week actually (26/35)
the tick-tock video that's actually has over a hundred thousand views on it because He has a problem that people aren't seeing right now. I guess you don't know what's gonna go violent. What's not But your energy AG on pullbacks and you're gonna see pullbacks in every even the great sectors You'll see pullbacks definitely see pullbacks Be sure to follow your stops to this just it's ugly out there. There's massive to leverage and taking place Even the best names are selling off but when I look at this market, it reminds me closer to I would say January During a credit crisis January 2009 when a lot of people say well the markets are by here to my here and you were right But you had indoor a lot of pain because from January to March the SP sold off I think it hit the final of 666. It sold off close to 30% Just over those three months, but you were right because a couple months later you recoup those gains and then boom You're off to the races You're never gonna pick the absolute bottom (27/35)
and you're never gonna sell at the absolute top that never ever ever happens unless you're very very Lucky, maybe in a situation one or two, whatever but almost never happens even though all those charts and figures that you're gonna see and all the Promotions if you buy here and you sell here you bite they have these little circles and all the bullshit, right? Try to get you to buy their products it's all bullshit. Okay. It's not technical patterns. It's not whatever it's just it doesn't work That way it's never that easy So for you, you want to be able to buy assets that are cheap and that are growing right now the S&P 500 The S&P 500 is trading at 15 times for earnings That's cheapest level. It's been I want to say in I mean the 10-year average I think is about 14 The five-year average is more like 18 So we're looking at an area where we're becoming very cheap and Earnings expected to grow over 10% that's why it's cheap if earnings expect to grow 2% or negative. That's not cheap All (28/35)
right, a 9 PE is not cheap. If you're expected to lose money and not growing over the next few years That's not cheap, right? so it's cheap if you you could be at 30 times fold earnings and that's not expensive if you've grown those earnings by 60 70 percent expected to grow it over the next couple years, right? So you have to take one with the other but when you're looking at 15 times fold earnings S&P 500 With earnings expected to grow more than 10% that's pretty cheap and that means you're gonna find a lot of names that are trading in single-digit PEs right now and Names that have got unfairly punished Along with a lot of the technology stocks and things like that that have good growth profiles that report a good earnings last two quarters That are just getting nailed because everyone's the leveraging and you've seen people on the wrong side And that's what you see any of this all from Bitcoin here There's just a lot of leverage in these markets that needs to come out still and (29/35)
people are selling and waiting but we need a catalyst We need certainty and unfortunately our Fed is just a bunch of idiots right now And they don't know what they're doing and I hate to say that because I know it's common to just be up the Fed and That's what everybody does but man when you limit yourself and everything and just limit yourself where we would have been so much better off It was much higher We should you sort of started raising rates so much earlier in January and you didn't with January 2021 You didn't write you waited over a year later to do it, which is fine. So why not do it quickly? It's gonna hurt it's gonna be painful wall hurting we get it So just do it stop sugarcoating it and praying that inflation is gonna moderate sooner than later because if it doesn't Nobody has certainty in this market and you're crushing this market right now doing something that's unprecedented where you're aggressively Raising rates shrinking a balance sheet at a time where the markets (30/35)
getting destroyed and the average Americans getting destroyed And a lot of this was created by you it could have been prevented if you started raising Just a year ago from now or you 18 months ago What you were supposed to do when all that surprises hit hit record highs, that's the past. Let's not look at the past Let's look forward. Stop sugarcoating this. This is shitty conditions. You need to raise aggressively this way you have the power You'll be more in control the markets and you can simulate the markets when inflation moderates which it will it will moderate It will moderate we're seeing it. We're seeing those cracks in the foundation It's more than just cracks now across a lot of different industries. You're gonna see it in unemployment You're gonna see it when we hit a recession But let's just get up there this way you had more power to control it because we know what happens with the markets guys We know what happens if you pull up a chart as p500 even of today and pull up (31/35)
since it became 500 companies Just pull up on CNBC long term chart You're gonna see a chart that starts low on the bottom and goes almost all the way up over time stocks do great over time You need to limit this shit and you have the power to limit the shit if you do the right thing You're not doing the right thing. You have to be smart here I know it's a situation a lot of these guys haven't been in it's been the 80s and people forgot It's not pretty but buying stocks at this level You're gonna endorse some pain but 18 months That's when you're gonna see the benefit because you're gonna be like, holy shit It's just like when you look and you circle the March 2009 lows when you say the March 2020 lows and you're like, holy shit. This stock was trading at five dollars and it's now 180. I Mean, that's where you make fortunes people make fortunes life-changing gains when they're buying shit dirt cheap Not when they're at all-time highs and they continue to go higher for a couple of years (32/35)
It's the smart people that buy the assets when they're dirt cheap during times like this Using the stupidity of the Fed in our government to buy asset prices dirt cheap that are really good You're gonna endure a little bit of pain If you're gonna invest a little bit here a little bit there don't take full positions right now again It's a lot of uncertainty But you're gonna look back 18 months ago When inflation moderated the Fed finally will have the rates where they're supposed to be where the balance sheet will be shrunk It'll be ugly and we might be down a little bit more but it's going to be a time when you look back You see holy shit like this is One of those times where if you're sitting on cash, which you should have cash on the sidelines This is one of those times that makes a lot of sense to start picking away When everybody wants to sell and you feel like hey, I gotta get the hell out of market It's usually the time that you should be buying. We're close. We're almost there (33/35)
We just need some kind of cows some kind of uncertainty. It could be provided by the Fed. It hasn't been hopefully We'll see more aggressive rate hikes going forward and they won't just limit it to 50 basis point hikes because You might get away with that. You need inflation to moderate. I just don't see inflation moderating over the next three months I hope I hope I hope I'm wrong on that because I'm wrong on that That means everyone's gonna be okay. That means everybody's gonna make a lot of money I hope I'm wrong that what I'm seeing with the data doesn't suggest that so anyway, if you have courtesy research advisory member today Tuesday you're gonna get your issue today. It's just comes out on Wednesday, but I'm gonna do a day early Just want to provide a you know more timely updates We did sell out of some of the positions at one that things are really really looking bad last month We saw those positions good thing we did However, we still have position in the portfolio and (34/35)
they're getting hit like a lot of the other stocks are getting hit So I'm gonna update all those and tell you what I see much much more details in this podcast Which goes out to a free audience which is on all platforms. It's for the paid subscribers cars research advisors So expect to see that issue later today and any questions or comments guys. I'm here for you Frank curves of research calm That's Frank at curves of research calm I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's August 10th Frank Curzio host the Wall Street unplugged pockets where I break down the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So we have interest rates down a dollar down stocks surging why? Because We finally got a positive CPI reading consumer price index That's the gauge the Fed looks at the world looks at to determine where inflation is going even though It's a BS gauge and we know that been revised numerous times We know that rental income which continues all rents continue to go higher and higher that caps for 30% of this index however, finally finally It showed positive signs that inflation is moderating where rose 8.5% year-over-year That was less than 8.7 that was expected with the core which strips out food and energy that came in flat under the 0.2% increase (1/35)
that was expected again, that's year-over-year, but More importantly month-over-month, which what the Fed is really focusing on both CPI and core rose less than expected I'm gonna throw some numbers figures at you. I want you to pay attention You Know some of you listeners right now saying Frank. You know what? We're talking about inflation at 8.5%. We're celebrating this the marks going higher Most prices still high they're not gonna take those price hikes back at least some of them are until they see less demand They're gonna be forced to lower the prices And sure gasoline price are at what 375 380 on average, but they were three dollars a year ago Food prices are still very high rents still high electricity still high You're saying hell almost all my bills that I'm paying are still much higher than they were a year ago And you know what? You're right. So before you say Frank, you're an idiot to say this is positive. It's still going higher. I Get it. I pay my bills too. I like the (2/35)
Fed who doesn't get it but from a market perspective or how this is gonna impact your portfolio whether it's Personal portfolio retirement point for one K, whatever it is. The reason why most of you listen to this podcast This is great news because the first time the CPI shows inflation is moderating this year Basically, since the Fed started aggressively raising rates It's supposed to happen four months ago three months ago two months ago last month and it didn't happen finally with this rating it happened I thought it would happen last month So what does this mean it means? That the Fed going forward is likely going to slow the rate of interest rate increases Which basically puts a floor on the market And likely means that we already bottomed in early July for now. It's one reading Talk about more about this in a second But it's definitely a positive Now it also removes the negative headlines from other Fed presidents like Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mesta St. Louis Fed president (3/35)
James Bullard one of my favorites Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and San Francisco Fed president Mary Daley who in the past few weeks Publicly said that rates need to go significantly higher because they did not see any signs of inflation Moderating had a massive rant on this and shows you why there's such a disconnect between what the Fed does I don't know who they hang out with. I don't they lock them all in a room and now I'll talk to somebody I don't know if they never pay their bills. Maybe they just filthy rich but for them not to see what is going on that inflation is monitoring so many places was crazy and Some of them suggested that we should be at 4% the Fed funds rate this year We're only at two and a half percent this year No one hips have rise after being from zero to two and a half now They wanted to be 4% saying they're not seeing any evidence any evidence at all Even though it was in plain sight over the past six weeks Seven weeks copper down 40% lumber got cut in (4/35)
half Oil was 130. It's 90 gasoline prices down over 25% mortgage demand falling off a cliff supply chains Easing showing that demand is slowing. They're saying that demand is slowing There's actually container ships that are staying lower and lower on these lots because the manage is slowing Retailers Walmart Target across the board saying inventory levels are incredibly high which means gonna have to sell these items as steep discounts Which will take months to do so right that's deflationary. These are signs. I'm not saying that it's great I'm not saying inflation is not here. I'm not saying price or but from a market perspective This is the most important thing you have to focus on the Fed don't fight the Fed don't go pay That's why stocks it was a by the dip for 10 11 12 years It's credit crisis by the dip by the dip by the dip by the dip because the Fed was keeping rates low forcing rates So they kept them low and they were also buying bonds so Now when you raise rates, it's (5/35)
totally different but when you're looking at inflation It's clearly moderating in some places and that's what we need to see But these Fred presidents that I just named they were saying this publicly there's over the past few weeks and This flies in the face of what Powell the Fed chair is saying Because you didn't hear him say 4% at all. He I wasn't on the table. You didn't say that But that confuses the hell out of the markets it confused the hell out of investors the institutions on what to do because you're contradicting Basically, I'm just gonna say his boss and like you can find but you know, he's the chair But I'm quoting here. This is what Powell said. This is six weeks ago He told Congress the pace of interest rate increase will continue to depend on the incoming data and evolving outlook for the economy it's a Inflation still wildly out of control and we got to raise rates incredibly and all these guys had have said this and these people have Said this Fed presidents were all (6/35)
completely dovish Pre 2022 it's transitory. We're fine. We're fine. We're fine That's what they said now It's great that they're saying this because you just have to do with the opposite of what they do and usually you're gonna work out perfectly fine But these Fed presidents they need to be muzzled put tape over them out shut them up I mean no idea why these guys are allowed to speak publicly and contradict their chair Which is Powell which makes predicting what the Fed is going to do very very difficult And I've said this a million times over the past 15 years I do this podcast Uncertainty is the death of stocks. It's the death of equities It's like me talking to my shareholders about my company after my quarter saying yes We're seeing growth I expect to be strong over the next 12 months probably gonna do some hiring and then members of my board who are not even Like the CEO or the C whatever right I could be chair, whatever They start speaking all over the world that convert is (7/35)
saying no no courage their research. They're not gonna go that fast Inflation is gonna hurt us. We got to be careful Think about that if you contradict what the boss says publicly Publicly whatever happens behind closed doors or whatever you have disagreements whatever that's your partners for right, but publicly all have to be in the same page If not, that's grounds are being fired if you're going against your boss basically, and they can't be fired right they're voted in but think about that how crazy it is I Remember when it comes to the Fed especially since 2008 2009 Those have been following even earlier again from 2008 2009 They made it policy to be more transparent to tell the public ahead of time right testifying before Congress You're seeing all over TV now. Whatever really was was broadcasted on CNBC where you had the Fed chairman Testifying in front of Congress now. It's a very big deal Because they've more transparent. They tell you what it plans on doing the Fed in regard (8/35)
to interest rates They're balance sheet over the next three to six months This way there's no surprises Because what happens when we see a surprise move by the Fed the most powerful nation in the world where if they get it Wrong the entire global economy falls into recession people lose their jobs people die if they get it wrong We see the markets what for 11 to 12 weeks Right this happened in November where they totally like transitory transitory transitory said holy shit We are so wrong inflation's out of control and we're gonna have to raise rates super aggressively over the next 12 months to try to control it and stop we Don't know we're doing and what happened markets crashed That's like felt 30% many stocks 60 70 80 percent because massive deleveraging holy cow You're not just like slowly raising rates. You're talking about going from zero to two and a half three percent immediately Remember in November where we're going you look at the reports. Oh, we're gonna be at 1% the end (9/35)
this year Oh, it's gonna be one and a half two percent then all of a sudden it's three three and a half percent. Whoa, I Mean, this is a major factor going from zero to two and a half It's like you're losing a football game 80 to nothing That doesn't happen in that time period you have to let it filter through and it's filtering through it's not like wow We're seeing prices decline all of a sudden they're gonna go high you got you're seeing you factor in it's getting hard to borrow money You seen things shrink not everything of course, I'm not here saying wow, we're good It's it everything so no, but right now based on the data today, which we've been saying I Hate saying that we've been saying it sounds arrogant because you know again Wrong on some things and I'll cover that in a minute one sector that those bias is screaming by now But there's clear evidence that it's working and the reason why you could see I've never seen it work this fast We're in a six-week period Boom holy cow (10/35)
copper prices Wheat prices the corn prices Wow energy 130 everybody bullish. It's 90 Gasoline prices are down Tremendously, they're down. Yes. They're still up 20% year. We had 25, but they're down incredibly But the Fed you don't want any surprises. That's why they come out and tell you Hey, this is what we're going to do But when you have fed governors going everywhere and it's getting picked up by all but you look at Bloomberg Look at briefing calm you look at all these services whether it's You know cap like all these news feeds are picking up what these Governors are saying and they're even mentioned on CNBC Wow They expect 4% raise 4% rates if we go to 4% we have another 20 25 percent downside here There's no way they should go to 4% that would destroy the market in 2023 It would destroy and that's why we rose so much off July the market usually knows ahead of time What's gonna happen? Don't fight the markets and the markets have been rising rising rising and now look where we (11/35)
are Now This is just one positive reading just one so the point is when you look at the Fed September's our next meeting They were supposed to raise 50 75. It was kind of split 75 base point except time 75 is what I sometimes now off the table market expect a 50 base point hike Okay, that's okay But There's mounting evidence That the current rate hikes are starting to work which means the Fed is likely after that rate hike They're gonna come out and either say We're not gonna raise rates or they're gonna be dubbish Which they haven't been in a while Which crushes markets? I'm gonna say you know what wait and see things look okay. It's heading in the right directions We see what's going on. It's a soft landing May have bottomed you can argue. What's the definition of recession since we're changing that now two straight quarters negative GDP But maybe we don't fall into research softer landing unemployment stays pretty strong But we're seeing inflation moderate so many different things (12/35)
not everything not rent not really food But in a lot of things especially energy which impacts all of us and we see that I see that it was costing like $110 to fill up my tank now. It's like 90. It's a big difference Especially for me since you know We're moving and we're driving like crazy back and forth woman probably anyone that drives in a country right now other than truck drivers But that's the big theme that's why stocks are going up so much so when you're looking at it from there's a difference between personal there's different see what the markets want to see what your stocks want to see and they overshot completely and Now you seen them catch up so the Fed right now if we come out you're looking at August and you say well What's gonna happen if inflation starts rising again, and it could I'm not saying I can't but why? If you're looking at the data right now It's it's probably gonna come in at a much better reading than even this month If we continue on this pace to just (13/35)
stay this way because energy prices are for energy prices are down over 10% Just this month and this is the data that's being included in the next reading So, let's see what happens So this is going to be the August date is gonna be reported right now a month from now September 10th and then you have the Fed that's gonna come out and they're gonna They're gonna look at that and the month and this month's reading and say okay, we're moderate But even when you're looking into next quarter We're still seeing inflation moderate but more point we've seen supply chains ease because you don't have this massive demand and that's very very important Where companies could be more predictable? Whether it's car companies chip companies any electric company that uses a chip could be more predictable now And that's why you're seeing companies like Apple really surge Seen other names in a chip sector technology surge, but looking at the numbers right now The Dow today is up one and a half percent (14/35)
doing this around 1130 That could change who knows when news comes out these days But you're seeing across the board your short and there's net shorts have been building these positions Building building building these positions. I'll be surprised if maybe I don't know you can't predict what the markets gonna do I like to throw it out there and if I'm wrong, I'll say I'm wrong But the shorts here there's a lot of people short this market right now saying we came back too fast and You might say you know that that's right Because the S&P 500 is now at 15% from its lows and we say it's lows basically since July 1st The Nasdaq's up 20% from its lows. You're like, holy shit Nasdaq's up 20% a lot of your names You're seeing up a lot more than that But the S&P right now is still down 12% for the year. The Nasdaq is still down 18% for the year That's how much we sold off Now people like wow things are still bad We're probably gonna be in a recession and you know We have inflation going create (15/35)
and you saw those short positions and people go more net short just going short You might see a little bit more covering because right it's dangerous at the Fed comes out September and just is a bit dovish I don't know if they'll actually say we're not gonna I don't think they're gonna say we're not raising rates because they just want to Look because they got it so wrong in the past. They don't want to get it wrong this time But they're gonna say hey right now it's working We're seeing inflation moderate which is good And we're also having a soft landing where we don't have to raise to the point where it's going to hurt the economy so much We do fall into a deep recession if you don't agree. We're in recession now But if that happens, it's gonna be very tough to be short this market right now. Maybe short certain sectors Yes, that makes sense But the overall market is going to go higher if the Fed is done September and right now looking at the next date and the Readings with energy (16/35)
being a big component There's a good shot. We are going to see inflation plus with the interest rates again It's not like one month change Right when it comes to inflation you see it moderate because what the Fed is doing is working It's working and it's gonna continue to work It's gonna continue to be a drag on the cut to slow it down and pull right so think about You're pulling something right if you're running and you got these ropes around you you're holding someone back You're not gonna let them go. It's not like old inflation. The ropes are still there. It's still slowing That's what happens when you're raising interest rates You're raising rates you're slowing the economy down and you're seeing it and you know deleveraging and a lot of these sectors. However You need to see it moderate. You don't want to see continue pulling right you continue pulling even harder Which means you're raising rates. Well right now what you're doing is working. You're starting to see that train was (17/35)
going downhill He couldn't stop it. It's starting to slow so so so so and it should continue This is the way it's worked in the past. It should continue to ease Which is gonna make the Fed in a prime position to say look, okay We're doing our job. It's working right now and Let's see and powers gonna say we're gonna take a look at the data But right now, you know, we might help rate steady for the rest of the year. And if they say that The markers are probably at least 10% undervalued right now. Maybe we still finish down for the year But you're gonna see a nice comeback even further than we come back since July Now we look at sectors and it's important to look at sectors right who's gonna benefit from this report banks a Lot of times the podcast I say well, this is what I said or whatever. Well, you know what? I was wrong in the banks. I told you buy banks Six months ago and the whole entire market collapse. I didn't think you see that much of it deleveraging that quickly And I was (18/35)
wrong on that but banks are in prime position You might say Frank. Wait a minute, you know, they benefit from higher rates or net interest margins But you're saying that the Fed could slow down they're gonna slow down. They're not gonna reverse it They're gonna reverse it and go to zero again At least not for the next 12 18 months and 12 months you could say so they're benefiting right now that that interest margins are Incredibly incredibly high right the skyrocketing gonna be over 30% from where they were last year So yeah, the Fed may celebrate it so the rate of rate hikes or say hey We're gonna hold still at least for the next six months or so. That's great for the banks Just now they're generating a ton of business Which that part of their industry sucked for such a long time and this margin were horrible the lowest levels you have interest rates low But now they haven't really raised their rates on Checking savings and things like that But rates are going higher and higher where (19/35)
they lend money out and they're making a lot more money plus Now you have the double benefit not just from fees Well, not just from this part of the business and interest margin interest rates, but fees Which was their bread and butter but that kind of went away because the market collapsed so much So you didn't see a lot of M&A's IPOs have been shelved So Yeah, you said trading activity. Okay, but you know for places like Goldman and stuff I think Morgan Stanley's training activity was as good But now you're gonna see both ends of this where it's their fee structure and the interest rate structure and you're hearing this from banks They've been saying this for six nine months when interest rates go higher. They're like we are in prime position and They are in prime position. That's why they're raising their dividends They're buying back stock because they're not really allowed to lend it all out because of crazy laws that still exist which is nuts but it ensures that our banks are in (20/35)
Good standing so you should own banks even large ones. You can go a little bit more aggressive You can get the JP Morgan's and do well nice dividend and some of the bigger ones and maybe you know The top four or whatever as you're researching them, but throw banks in your portfolio. I Get nice dividends. You're gonna see strong growth earnings are gonna explode going forward But now you're taking kind of like that that really deep recession off the table if you're selling that interest rate hike and that's gonna Be great. We're gonna see M&A activity come back IPOs come back that have been shelved over the past six nine months and That's gonna be great for a lot of these banks investment banks And a lot of these names that's a sector that should benefit tremendously Aggressive sectors that have gotten annihilated small caps very aggressive with small caps Cheapest they've ever been now This is great and the dollar doesn't really hurt them right because the dollar is good Most of these (21/35)
companies are small caps to do business in the US and business overseas So they don't get hurt as much and that has been cheaper small caps compared to large caps have been cheaper than almost any time In well over a decade not to mention if you're just looking from the price of growth perspective It's never been cheaper other than last month still it's at levels We haven't seen in my research dating back for 22 years. That's how much small caps sold off So you have to look at how much these stocks sold off You can't just look and say why I never looked at the small cap and next I have no idea what's going on But I'm a little worried about the market Well if small caps only sold off 10% During this time frame I'd say well you got to be careful But they sold off 30 35 but some of these names are down 60 70 percent in biotech And you look at the technology companies tech sector across the board even large cap tech have sold off tremendously But you know what supply chains are easing So (22/35)
start looking at companies that got hurt from supply chains because the next six months the next two cores They're probably gonna say hey They're easing now and we have more predictability where? Even the car companies when we get out more of these EVs now More money with the chip bill just passed so chips companies, you know tech companies and also You know semiconductor companies two areas should be looking as well small caps as well as crypto Well you saw aetherium get murdered and I've been telling you 90% of crypto is BS And it's nice to see this filter out because this is where all the innovations coming from Dow metaverse NFTs DeFi this is where it's coming from the innovation the innovation part is coming from this where everybody's going is where all the major technology Companies are spending a ton of money. This way innovation is coming Got rid of a lot of the BS But there's still 10% industry are great names that we were researching so we see a theory for the 800 themes (23/35)
1800 today was 800 a month ago Bitcoin you seen catch a bid now you're gonna see all these institutions you heard fidelity come out and say hey We're gonna offer 20% Allocation to retirement accounts pretty soon Be sure to listen to tomorrow's interview because it's a great interview about Bitcoin IRAs. Please listen to that give a little shout out It's gonna be a great interview tomorrow But you look at Bitcoin some of the good ones some of the good names here There's avalanche and a couple others I won't mention but we have a lot of good names on our portfolio that are starting to rebound sharply after selling off Tremendously even the great name sold off tremendously because it's a leveraging Now you get to see some of these names start bouncing back you sort of ready some of them up 25% 30% Ford's up tremendously from its highs if their supply chain eases Ford is a great investment going forward And I've been critical of them for a long time all the way down Because CEO has been (24/35)
lying about the supply chain concerns and the fact that they're like we're going 100 set EVs Even though you right now they actually for came out and said we can't make money on EVs That's what they just raised the price of the f-150 Lightning. They just raised the price of it because they can't right now They're not making money on their EVs That's how much the cost have been rid batteries and everything across the board So You have to sell more gas vehicles and they're like we're getting out of gas No, you have to sell more gas figures which they did last quarter and you saw those numbers explode So great sales for last month for it So start looking at car companies start looking at names and chip sector that have gotten hit hard Because that's gonna start easing right now. And now when you have the feds saying hey, you know what we could put again It's one month of data, but it's positive and usually when you see this what's happened last month Last month we saw easing it's still (25/35)
relatively high It's very high but you want to see that trend coming down because it's gonna result in the Fed being less aggressive and That's the biggest risk of the market of them raising too much too high and overshooting If they do that, that is the biggest risk of the market We see stocks fall and you'll see bankruptcies more to leveraging if they slow that pace right now That's what the markets telling you. That's why we've seen a nice bounce. That's why I've seen a ten year down a 1.7% Sorry 2.7% we're seeing it down. It was over 3% So with the 10 years telling us is that the Fed is going to slow and may say look, you know what? 3% may be the top when it comes To the Fed funds rate and it should be at least at 3% and let's see for a couple months What happens and if it's not working as well then we go high but based on the data today You have to be willing to change your mind and sell stocks if we see inflation start rising tremendously next month Heading into September and (26/35)
they go 50 basis point 75 basis point, which I think 75 is crazy and they say hey You know what? It's going higher. We got to get more aggressive. That's different. You change your mind You change your portfolio as of right now Stock should continue moving higher because the Fed is the most important thing right most powerful organization on the planet by far It's probably gonna get dovish when it comes September after they raise By 50 basis points, which is good news. So you're looking at small caps catching a bid. They've been catching a bid Banks technology crypto semiconductors Looking at losers. I would say energy Only because it was so there's so much money that poured into that sector And yes, $90 is an incredible number when you're looking at oil prices I mean remember when they were like futures pricing in zero not long ago. It's like like 18 months two years ago You know and we look at $40 good 50 then it went to 130 which is insane But looking at stocks in general and we've (27/35)
seen a lot of money coming out of these names over the past six weeks They're still up tremendously over the past year past 12 months But when you look at institutional money, they go to what's working and they poured into energy Which was what the only thing that was working everything else was not working except for energy Basically and just look at the S&P performance right now. Okay, look at the yearly performance You seen how much oil companies come down and down 35% from their highs There's still like 30 of the top 50 names are energy companies when you're looking at performance for the year throw tremendously So now you're gonna see rotation. That's what you're seeing If other things are working they're gonna rotate out of that and go into some more great now. This is telling you. All right The leverage is probably gonna ease a little bit You see more money pour into some of these aggressive sectors that got annihilated like biotech has gotten annihilated annihilated And the (28/35)
biggest funds man. I don't know who's keeping track of those guys and how leveraged they were man The for selling in that industry. I can't tell you how many great names and biotech Hey, we're trading below cash and these are companies generating revenue I'm not talking about just you know, the speculative ones, you know putting all eggs in one basket and hey, you know Going into phase two right now. We have positive phase one If it doesn't work, it's gonna go down 80% if it does I'll go 500 Not talking about those names good names that have great partnerships that are generating revenue have gotten annihilated Annihilated that's a sector that topped in February. I'm talking about February 2021 around there February March and have consistently went down into November and then got Annihilated when the Fed reversed course and said hey, we have to raise rates So this is very positive there's some you should have been prepared for Been investing in a lot of new stocks we're gonna have more (29/35)
recommendations if you're a cursor research advisory newsletter Subscriber we usually publish on Wednesday, which is second week. Just want to see these results first So I don't know if we're gonna come out tomorrow or Friday, but you're gonna get either tomorrow Friday There's gonna be at least two recommendations likely three new recommendations in it So I just had to finish up my research, which is great But I it was important to see this number because if you see another negative number of inflation still rising You Know you could have saw capitulation and people saying I'm throwing in the towel. Holy shit inflation You just say they can't control the Fed. It's crazy and they got to go to 4% that result in the markets I mean what you're seeing right now across the board with some of these stocks up 8% 10% they show on CNBC right now They'll be down 10 15% right now if this number was bad You would sit a huge shift in capital to the other end instead of coming into the market Now we (30/35)
see this you can see lots of recommendations a lot of names are still down 20 30 40 percent from their highs Yes, they're up 20 25 percent from their lows, but crazy buys a Lot of these coming up pricing power you seen insiders still buying at these levels, you know, they're buying aggressively and almost at a record pace Two months ago now, it's slow. You see in a little bit more sells and buys There's a lot of good names out there, especially large mid cap that you would buy and say All right. I want an 8% return over the next year annually over the next couple years I mean you could see 20% plus returns on some of these names on how far they've come back over the next two years three Years and you might see that right away. You might see that later, but where they're trading right now There's a lot of names. I'm seeing that a screen buys and you're gonna see them come out my cursor research advisory newsletter Which is a very affordable newsletter. It's almost like not a beginner (31/35)
newsletter, but focus on large caps mid caps good companies You know, it's like Curzio venture opportunities where it's a lot of more research Sometimes we put in micro caps in there where I'm the analyst providing all the research and they're looking at my stuff My model and stuff. So, you know a lot of more research is dedicated to that In terms of some of these other large cast mid caps that are covered by 2030 analysts sometimes so it's a lot easier So those newsletters are a little bit more expensive and but Curzio research is a very affordable newsletter If you guys want in just stay give me shout Frank Curzio research comm against extremely extremely affordable less than what you would put Fill up your tank right now for gas for the year. That's the year subscription So, you know, that's me saying at all new subscribers are coming in A lot of them come in at Curzio research advisory dollar stock club this way. They see or about right? That's when you subscribe to that. It's hey, (32/35)
let me see what Curzio is about and you're gonna see a newsletter where I do 30-minute videos breaking down showing my research, you know, which is you know sharing a lot of the sites that I pay a lot of money for and Institutional research and showing why I recommend really breaking it down easy to learn That's why I'm trying to educate you as well But that's a great starter newsletter If you guys are interested, let me know cause we should advisory that's gonna come out either tomorrow Friday I'm gonna try to get out by tomorrow. It's doing a little research finishing up. Are you gonna see at least two recommendations? Maybe three? In the next newsletter, which is really cool because we're gonna start getting aggressive because I think the Fed What we're seeing right now We're gonna continue to see inflation to moderate going forward and that's gonna make the Fed Much more dovish which I think if they do you have a lot more upside in this market, especially through year end Let's see (33/35)
what happens Marks are still down. I know they're up and you're like, wow, it's come back. It's cool. I don't know But you remember S&P still down 12% and as excellent 18% All right, so there's a lot of names that are down more than that in those two Indices and those are names are gonna be focusing on names that have been unfairly punished And you're gonna see separation a lot of these industries But you will see some recommendations because research is advisory So guys that's it for me questions comments for to email a frank kurza research comm I'll say it again Be sure to tune in tomorrow the Bitcoin IRAs. It's really really cool You're seeing fidelity you see in black rock assignment coinbase see more and more money pour into crypto at Bitcoin aetherium offering this alternative asset class because Clients want it So JP Morgan did about face you look at hedge funds doing about face and you go and see money start pouring into this And here's a way because Bitcoin IRA is pretty cool (34/35)
I'm gonna pay by this company or whatever But they're gonna show you how you can invest if you want a portion money IRAs this way not to wait till fidelity Black rock or whoever and state streak gets their approval is or whatever and how long that takes you could actually do it right now And it's a safe way to do it. So it's a great interview tomorrow. Make sure you stay tuned And tune into that because this is a first time guess and it is a great interview. So I'll see you guys tomorrow Take it easy Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's November 16 Frank courage is the wall street in public pockets. We're big then headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets It is Daniel Creech Wednesday lots of earnings to go over lots of stuff Daniel let's start damn it. How's it going because? It's Tell it to companies in the same industry I talked about this yesterday But you're seeing good results in the same industry and companies reporting bad results within the same industry something I talked about which you're not used to seeing in the past But you know we got to start off. I guess with Target. Yeah, that's the story today Yeah, I mean Walmart blew it out last year. They reported good earnings. They beat them this year Target was the opposite They earned 303 in earnings per share last year They reported a dollar (1/36)
54 today down from the consensus of 218 Frank yeah to your point You're betting the jockey not the horse management teams are Kind of rising to the top there To go with the macro theme you and I were talking about this this to make sense because consumers are getting squeezed by inflation So they're looking for value cheaper that's a big tailwind for Walmart versus Target, which is you know a higher tier higher quality a higher price point and Yeah, you said it best you're like a lot of this is just common sense man things are hard And people are gonna go where there's cheaper value that leads to Walmart over target because of their grocery exposure and because consumer behaviors changing They said in the last week of the quarter that significant or consumer sediment can chain change significantly That's to your point when you have major corporations like FedEx targets and all this warning You got to take note that just means there's rougher times ahead in markets and economies in (2/36)
general. It's gonna get worse, right? I mean rates are going higher like I said you have this big pile of cash that people have it's getting small and small as small as Costco higher and higher and higher and this You're on the this delusion that Yeah, the Fed they're gonna pivot something like that lower rates anytime soon Even if they stop even if they slow even if it goes to four and a half, you know Four and a half the entire year next year You don't know what that is going to do and the impact is gonna have on earnings and and you're seeing it but Target compared to Walmart and you mentioned something good when it when a lot of times this comes to Common sense where we can analyze numbers we can look at everything but let's take a step back Right because when you look at numbers are terrible. I missed by 60 cents earnings per share down 50% year-over-year Massive they saw strength in food a beverage which also which is which is huge and it makes sense Right because groceries are (3/36)
getting much more expensive. So, you know, you're gonna go to Target you're gonna go to Walmart But the costs were much much higher here, which were unexpected that which margins got hurt EBIT in this earnings for interest tax is not to get too technical here, but to clean a version when margins They're expecting 3% compared to 6% I in margins if that was earnings that's like missing earnings by like 70% that that's you see companies miss on margins You miss they put in basis points because usually it's so small They don't say you miss by a percentage because you usually don't miss by percentage you miss, you know It's been basis points to miss by 3% is insane Or to say that that's what's going to be going forward means that they have a lot of inventory which they do But they said specifically on the call that in October stale starting trending lower got worse in November and now they're warning like you said in December So what a Walmart do differently one is that Walmart? Caters to a (4/36)
lower end consumer and targets like right in the middle. I always argue like what targets just weird They're just like right in the middle where it's like you wouldn't call it high-end, but it's like yeah, you know I don't want to go to Walmart and I'd rather go to Target, you know Just like you whatever But their prices are definitely higher. So what's happening with Walmart where people are like, okay I'm gonna go buy my groceries there now because they're a lot cheaper and yeah Sometimes stay at a quality issues in terms of you know, how they rank them in certain surveys or whatever, you know but the bottom line is they're going there they're saving money and When you're the cheapest on the street and everybody else is harder than you. What does that do? it gives you pricing power to raise up to those levels and Still probably be cheaper for a lot of these items than Target and that's why you're seeing it's it's a biggest story here guys And I talked about it yesterday how you're (5/36)
gonna see massive separation in companies within industries Which you're not used to seeing usually the whole sector goes up and some go up a little bit more than others You're gonna see stocks down 30% stocks up 30% and it's key in this market because over the next two three years What's your goal? Your goal is to gain market share Walmart is gaining market share Who are the companies that are gonna gain market share because there's a lot of companies that are gonna go under over the next year A lot of companies gonna see sales go down tremendously. They're gonna cut costs dramatically like Target just announced, right? They're not they're cutting costs. You don't hear that from Walmart Walmart's like this is what we're expanding into because things are really good and they have exposure to gasoline and International sales even like that that was actually very good for them in China as well. So, you know Sam Club membership different memberships, so Very surprised these numbers of (6/36)
Target we've had this in our portfolio for a very very long time and did well with it You know, we just I this is like the third quarter in roto Daniel, right? I mean you lower it significantly to cause another third core you thought a lot of this was priced in You know, it's not priced in but it goes to show you how You have to be very very careful of what company you're investing in and it's not just about all the markets are gonna go up 20% or down 20% its companies that are going up 20% look at Walmart to yesterday. Look what target that yesterday, right? These are comparable. These are two companies that you mentioned the same breath when you're talking about the industry Lowe's and Home Depot as well Home Depot. There was a lot better Lowe's doing okay today and we could turn to that with Lowe's But you're seeing that separation here and targets pretty bad and you know, again, they have a good balance sheet They're gonna be fine I think a lot of this is priced in but you know (7/36)
When you see Walmart's card, it just makes you want to run to Walmart even a much expensive more expensive valuation Yeah, I mean, I'm not It hurts it's down 15% if you're a long-term hoarder and target It's basically trading back to the Lowe's where it was in May or June where it warned like you said a couple of quarters ago It's Frustrating it's a black eye, but I mean, I don't think anybody's really worried about target over the longer term. I think management Targets one of those organizations where if management doesn't figure it out. They'll replace him I think I'm not saying his jobs at risk or anything of that nature. I'm just you know, this is tough They got a weed through all that. They definitely need to follow in the footsteps and get it You know execution more quickly than Walmart Lowe's I thought We've talked about this several times We know that there's a lot of headwinds and Things ahead for the economy the markets in general, but that doesn't mean that all news is (8/36)
going to be negative So you got some decent Data out today on retail sales, but Lowe's comes out if you read through Lowe's conference call and talking points You don't think a recession is coming. He's not seeing consumers slow down. He's seeing strong demand Still he's seeing lumber prices and things come down. That's all very very positive if you just take that by itself You you can't do that, but I'm just saying you're going to always see pockets where it's like hey, this is fantastic Look, these guys are booming. We talked about Eaton corporation talking about how it is and glad you brought that up What did Eaton CEO say in the call? What did Eaton CEO say in the call even though they report a record earnings? What did he say in this call? Well, they think that they think a recession is coming. Yes. Okay, here's what what? Ellison said in the call and there's a guy that left JC penny for dead and lied I knew that I'm gonna be pissed off here because that was a stock that I (9/36)
believed in me and believed in him And now that he you know, just bankrupt the company but he left and then just went to Lowe's I don't think he's a good manager at all But he's doing the same shit here because any company that's reporting Pretty good earnings in this market and saying that they're not seen a slowdown in customer traffic and they're not expecting it means They're not preparing and he's out of his mind. That's the biggest red flag out there if companies are reporting right now Eaton reported record earnings. I've seen a lot of companies report record earnings. They look yes We're worried about the customer going forward Even Walmart CFO went on an interview in CBC and said the same thing He said listen, we're definitely seeing deteriorating trends. People are spending less. We're managing through this We have you know pricing power here and they do and that's why they beat the quarter wasn't And the numbers from Walmart, it wasn't that they're selling more stuff unit (10/36)
sales are down It's that they're selling at a higher price and they have pricing power to take a market share again from Target Well Lowe's came out you have to be careful because everyone's saying this and this is the story in the home builders and the home Industry where you know, you're not gonna see prices come down too much because there's not enough supply in the market However orders are being canceled like crazy and because of that Lowe's things that hey are do-it-yourself sector Which is 75% of their business. There's only 50% of Lowe's So 25% is professional which are pretty much Contracts that are going out and they have to fulfill all the promises and the bills that they have in the next couple years And then you're gonna see you know a big slowdown But there's a big difference between Home Depot and Lowe's I thought Home Depot is having more Professional their business where Lowe's is more tied to the individual consumer right 75% do-it-yourself And he's like, well a lot (11/36)
of people can't afford houses are gonna fix up their house wrong Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. You do not know your consumers You do not know what's going on out there because people are struggling you're seeing credit card the average credit card percentage on credit cards 19% high since 1980 we're seeing more household debt record debt right now This number just came out yesterday from from the New York Fed people are struggling They're cutting back tremendously and as home prices are coming down It might not make sense to actually fix up your home and put money into it because you might not see that value especially with home Prices expected to come down because mortgage rates are so high So when I look at an industry that is going to be horrible next year It was horrible as soon as rates went above four and a half percent and they're still at six point eight Everyone's happy because they they came down a ton from seven point two to six point No one was buying house at four and a (12/36)
half and higher even five It's not going to that level anytime soon because the Fed's not lowering rates So when I see a CEO go on and I we sought it from Ford and I wrecked them I saw it from Jay pick with Disney and I wrecked them. There's things are great. Things are great No, they're not not based on your numbers when you look under they're not great. Okay, it's okay to say hey, you know I was struggling here without selling EVs We're losing money on every EV sale wouldn't that be nice if Ford actually said that they won't say that and a lot of these companies but when it's the optimism right now You have the chance that 80% or 90% of the surveys out there survey I think there was a Everscore survey and ton of them believe we're gonna be in a recession next year So you could temper expectations the Allison that come on lows and say things we're fine. We're not seeing a slow down We heard that from Target nine months ago in Walmart and both of them fell by its largest one day (13/36)
percentages since 87 market crash you have to be very very carefully because it's falling off a cliff It's happening quick based on the pace of rate hikes We've never seen rate hikes this fast in the Fed era history to Fed era and they're going to Result in the first sector that gets hit obviously the most interest rate sensitive is housing now Look at the autos now look at the semis getting nailed Yeah, you've seen a little bit of a bid here and money, you know seasonal money coming in and buybacks are open up stuff like That but I would be very very careful because now the expectations are higher than they've ever been What you don't want to see heading into next year Which is gonna be horrible and recession higher rates and everything demand fall off a cliff The Fed still removing liquidity from the market through quantity tightening which nobody's really talking about. They're just looking at rates. That's massive You're taking money out of the system to trillions and trillions (14/36)
that you put in the system past two years I mean if Lowe's misses are warns This is stocks gonna get hit by 20 30 percent and I think over the next two quarters. You're going to see that That's why I like long dated puts because it might go up for the next two weeks It might be better than everybody else But if you really think that they're gonna generate this this type of earnings and I see this with a lot of lot of companies I have Walmart is trading at What is it? 24 times forward earnings, but yet those numbers were really good Lowe's I don't know to tell me that you're gonna see demand in the sector next year. You're not seeing a slowdown I mean people are cutting back you're seeing across the board. I'd be very careful and that's why I love earning season Right, you really dig in and see and I could be wrong on this. I'm wrong before But just to me I think that it'd be a see a big separation between Home Depot and Lowe's just like you're seeing with target And and Walmart and I (15/36)
think you're gonna see that over the next six months and you got a real good opportunity to buy puts On this it's not hard By not, you know nine months your puts and you know, you think they're gonna really meet earnings You think this is a company that could fall because we're seeing it even today And microns down a ton you see an advanced auto parts down a ton I mean these companies when they report earnings their lowing expectations Earnings estimates are way too high It's giving you an opportunity where okay I don't know what the markets gonna do and I don't know how the big companies are gonna do but I know is individual names and even you know industry Leaders are the top three or four those companies wait, you know one or two of them and not getting it done It could see significant pullback here and that's what I'm seeing here So for Lowe's I wasn't too crazy about but you know, we can move on to TJX I don't give any more comments on Lowe's but TJX it was pretty solid. Yeah, I (16/36)
mean, they're definitely I mean no Lowe's I I Could play devil's advocate because but it's just gonna get you fired up It did shock me if you like said how positive he sounded it definitely stood out. They were born a good quarter DJ I just yeah, he's what some of the things he said the average US home has roughly 330,000 of equity and is 40 years old He said people incorrectly thought Millennials wouldn't own homes and be permanent renters. The opposite is actually occurring and He says he's positive about future trends in 2023. So we'll mark this on our calendars Like I said, it's just it's one of those standouts and time will tell but yeah, he's very he's very optimistic So have you owned a house? What's that? You have owned a house? No. Okay, so 330,000 equity in your home is meaningless because you can't get it out Right, you really can't get it out. I mean, how do you get it out? Hey, you used to refinance you can't refinance now But you know how they're getting it out is Helox (17/36)
because I had a really good guy who works with an industry one say the company works and he was like Frank I'm not seeing this at all Whatever an email email me and I took the question on frankly speaking which is only for paid subscribers where the all you guys get to write in and I have a Q&A every Friday goes directly to To all those. Yeah, and all you have to do is own one product and you get it here But that's frankly speaking but he had a really good, you know point He's like we're not seeing Helox at all numbers just came out showing from the Fed that he locks again had a huge huge quarter Which is you know home equity lines of credit They're trying to take their equity out of their homes because everything is going higher and they're seeing that cost go higher Tremendously with interest rates going higher right and that costs everything but and they're not generating as much revenue, but and Possibly of them getting laid off some of these people but when I see that equity and (18/36)
getting it out You could sell your house, but it's not as easy to sell your house where you know, that market is coming down You could sell it but you're not gonna sell it for the price. It was six months ago. Definitely not even in, Florida So, how do you get the equity out of your house and that's the thing because that's what they're looking at go Wow, we have all this equity. Yeah, you could sell it but you know that that's different You're gonna have you know extra money, but you start to buy another house so it's gonna be interesting to see how they tap that equity and how they get it out because it's not as easy and you're Gonna pay a much much much higher rate To take that out of your house right now and you know, I don't know I don't know if that's the best thing and we'll see but yeah, they're just probably like said his his optimism is is a standout That's for sure. Yeah, and I just don't like optimism when you don't have to be optimistic you say hey We're seeing it pretty (19/36)
good and it's okay not like hey no nothing at all nothing at all and and I know his history and yes, it's personal for me because You know, I think the guy is really I won't even go into the word. I was gonna use but Yeah, it's I don't like him as a manager and that guy has always always always been optimistic when things aren't optimistic and I Hate that he reminds me of Ford reminds me of shape it with Disney You know just tell the truth and tell you how things are going bad because those guys just painted this picture Like everything's great. The future is great. We're awesome. And they had a massive multiple and fooled a lot of people in both Those stocks have gotten ham. What's the term carnival Barker? Yeah, basically so TJX I looked at TJX is also put for the holding and and you know recently recommended doing good One of the only companies I think you can see maybe I'd like to see Burlington because I I don't shop at Burlington often I just went there my wife wanted to go there (20/36)
and I must have bought This is like probably about a few months ago. I think we just yeah going away for a couple days and today let's go to Burlington and we don't really go to Burlington and I want to buy in like, you know, I think 12 pieces of clothing and I must have paid Maybe $100 for it or less than that and these are all like big brand names I was like, holy shit, and that's TJX as well, right? So you've seen these inventory where apparel isn't really doing well in a lot of segments for some reason They have to get rid of their inventory We all know Walmart did a great job getting rid of its inventory high inventory and apparel because that markets really really coming down That's high inventory and that inventory goes to TJ Maxx Which said that their margins went a lot higher this quarter because they're probably getting it far sell prices They got to get rid of this inventory and then they're able to sell it At a decent price and still make a profit on it I mean you're (21/36)
getting brand name shirts that that could be thirty four dollars for for fifteen You know dollars and twenty dollars and you know If you get in for eight or seven or whatever they get them for I'm just put in perspective But TJX was good Which is you know when I looked at those numbers Sales miss but earnings were higher their margins were good which shows pricing power You need to see that with these companies because unit sales gonna be down people aren't buying as much as they're buying But they're making up on pricing and not everyone has pricing power Walmart has it TJX has it Again, one of few companies that said power was doing good great balance sheet 3.4 billion in cash. They're gonna spend around two and a half billion on buybacks over the next three to six months That's about 4% of its market cap. So if you want exposure retail, I think TJX is great Walmart's a little bit more expensive But you know those numbers are there and Walmart may not be as expensive if they continue (22/36)
to drive those earnings higher because not only They have pricing power They taking market share clearly from Target and from everybody else and let's see even from grocery stores especially where you know people are seeing Massive increases in the price of food and they're starting to go to Walmart and even Target which said that Grocery sales were good as well right food and beverage What was the percentage you said between Target and Walmart really quick in terms of how much is grocery related? Target had about this is just the last quarter of the 10k groceries food and beverage were about 20 and a half percent for Target And they were about 58 percent for Walmart That's under the grocery category and that was in US net category sales for Walmart So that's total sales 60% of total sales for Walmart in the US Yeah, so I mean I took it wasn't 150 in revenue was like 105 and changed but they broke that down But I was just showing you how much that was just in the US Wow that's (23/36)
incredible. Well. That's awesome Yeah, it's good when you have that much leverage to that category is really kicking ass well when you're doing 150 billion in a quarter You know you got some no absolutely absolutely, but yeah I want to bring this up again because yesterday had this whole podcast where I trying to explain it where I'm not contradicting myself Where you know I'm not too sure where the markets gonna go But I'm seeing like companies within specific industries that are gonna get it done and not gonna get it done And it was funny because we mentioned Walmart, and then we see Target We mentioned Norwegian Cruise Lines how all their debt is fixed. They don't have any debt payments They focused on a higher end consumer, and what happened last night, which you seen in carnival down tremendously today down at 12 15 percent They needed to raise money another billion dollars in financing and that was one of the ones that they focus on a lower end consumer Which are really having (24/36)
trouble and you're seeing across credit card trends You're seeing it But from the Walmart you're seeing everybody warned about that saying that they're definitely cutting back on spending and that they've seen you know Just high gasoline prices high price across the board. It's hurting them. That's carnivals Bread-and-butter, that's where they get the most revenue from so last quarter was weak, which I report about five weeks ago They showed that cost reps significantly while they didn't have much pricing power to pass on those costs to the lower end consumers and But in that quarter analysts were not expecting the company need more capital at least from the tone from management Right they said it's a little weak, and you know so this was a surprise one billion dollar raise at Five point seventy five convertible senior notes to 2027 It's just when you're under the impression that the company doesn't have to raise money And I've been through this even with mining stocks and whatever (25/36)
when they're like no no we have enough capital and all of a sudden They do some kind of deal, and they raise money like two months later And you're like you just tell me didn't need capital right so if you didn't eat cap well It's good money And this and then you know you'll bring in some guys who basically are Going to blow out of your stock that don't give a shit about your long-term value of the stock Once that lock-up period ends, and they're raising money just for the fees And yeah, you have to be really careful here because you know this billion again bonds better than stocks that rate doesn't seem too crazy Five point seven five convertible senior note to 2027 But it does hurt credibility when you don't think you have to raise money and companies come out You don't have to worry about Norwegian, and they don't have any money to do They have fixed line of credits right they restructured it all this you know during during COVID now all the boats are in a war They focus on higher- (26/36)
end consumers It's much cheaper to go on these cruises even on the higher ends for Norwegian than it is to go to Disney World and take Your family for trips, and you know I think again You're gonna see separation you saw it also today day with with micron warning again You know huge inventory concerns well you know and I don't know if it's apples apples comparison You could say you know they're both in the same industry But Taiwan semi more money coming into it these guys have I mean their margins are incredibly high that one of the few I think Samsung, and I don't know if Intel still has the fabs and makes Chips they do, but again. We're gonna get out of this business back into this business do the Biden plan But you know micron warning again But Taiwan seven is much much better place where they have higher margins and have pricing power because they did the biggest and the best And they're probably still you know close to Full capacity as as you know did their clients have all the (27/36)
biggest clients including Apple You know they just light years above everybody else, so there's gonna be separation in semiconductor companies as well But you're seeing it you're seeing you're gonna continue to see it That's why I love you know keep pushing down your throat buying puts as a strategy because there's a lot of companies I'm seeing that are definitely not gonna meet earnings estimates are way too fucking high guys. They're way way too high Nobody has this right it's gonna be 180 It's gonna be 180 and the lowest on the street right now the base case from Morgan Stanley's 195 the base case for Goldman's 200 right now they're sitting at $237 for next year's earnings they're going to be 180 next year Which means that a lot of companies are gonna do exactly what targeted today? They're gonna warn and lower guidance significantly, which is not priced in and if you get a 14 15% decline in the stock in a day you're gonna make a fortune on these things and if not It's okay, because (28/36)
there's a lot of companies that you're long that are probably you know hold up Well and can I dig Home Depot you look at Walmart as well? You know there's companies that are getting it done Apple looks pretty good right now right definitely separation from the rest of the fangs But let's see what happens. Let's see what happens with that. That's That's a big theme here. I mean it's not all companies within a sector You can't bet on sectors here you have to bet on individual names because management teams and fundamentals guys are going to matter Significantly over the next two to three years. They didn't matter over the past 12 It didn't matter if your stock is trading 150 times forward earnings as long as they were growing growing growing That's all anyone cared about you got clients coming in It's all like Disney people bought Disney day like crazy because that's subscribers massive subscribers No one cared that they weren't making any money of those subscribers now It matters (29/36)
because now you're gonna have to cut costs significantly while other companies like Walmart are looking to Expand and build on their momentum, and they're gonna be taking market share And that's gonna be a big theme guys going forward over the next two years especially over the next two quarters Well said I like that Frank for me I love this type of market where you have to dig into earnings you have to dig into those fundamentals You have to see what's going on. What segments are doing well? I It's extremely important because there's two major themes here dealing that you got to focus on and it's pricing power come Is that pricing power you have Walmart that has it and you have target that doesn't? You see Norwegian has it you seen carnival doesn't and companies that are getting market share because those companies are gonna do fantastic And if you have your own businesses and listen up guys because you know this is what you want to do in these markets where? You're providing a great (30/36)
service for your clients. How do you take market share? Yes? You're gonna have to raise prices to cover your input cost But not to the point where you're just screwing everyone and you're raising so much more But yes, it's gonna be a slowdown going into next year But there's gonna be a lot of players that aren't going to survive and they're gonna lose a ton of business from doing the wrong Thing or whatever and it's your opportunity because we know later on the SP 500 gonna go up a lot right It's gonna go up a lot long term three foot. You look at charts as the 50s It goes up and up and up right down, so you know it's just a period right here of maybe 24 36 months It's gonna be really really ugly. I think as long as rates are high And Management team they said are all going to matter if they see you have your own business And you're going to do well with that you have to focus on your customers right now You have to keep those price low you got to worry about those cuts But this is a (31/36)
time to take market share because if you have pricing power And you could take market share and treat your customers good. That's huge because that's what Walmart is doing right That's what we're doing with target. They're taking that market share away. They're taking away from grocery stores through food and stuff like that so and When you when I look at this market where who are the people who made fun of all the time Yeah, you look at Einhorn. You'll look at chinos right all these people you made fun of Carson block These are guys who are for forensic Citron the one guy retired during the meme stock rallies and stuff not retired completely But he said hey, we're not short, and we're not gonna be public about this anymore remember when he tweeted that yeah It's your point great amazing analyst Fun because it didn't matter didn't matter what I didn't matter I think he was shorting Shopify whatever and and you know got wrecked on it But it didn't matter as long as you were growing just (32/36)
like Disney as long as you're growing those numbers nobody cared How much you made on those numbers on those subscribers right just grow that number 100 million 150 million and your stock went higher? and that's true for social media companies as well and All these unicorns right just hey look how much we have a million users We have 5 million use 10 million how much you're making doesn't matter We just keep growing that user base right now. It matters fundamentals matter. You need a good balance sheet You're gonna see cost-cutting management teams matter This is what you have to focus on because when I look at a company like Lowe's and a CEO like that gets on and Tells you how great everything is We saw how it could switch on a dime. Yeah, we see it We see it through this whole entire period holy cow you just said it was great And now it's not great where you know again the the Walmart's and the targets fell by by their Largest one-day amounts since the 87 crash and you're seeing some (33/36)
of these companies fall by 20% even the Google's even the the metas Right so I would bet that Lowe's with the optimism there and these guys expecting everything to be okay with do-it-yourself market and consumers gonna suddenly have money to spend You know they're trading at a pretty high multiple I'd be carefully what I would bet that they're going to see you all you needs a little bit of a hiccup from those guys Because optimism is now built in the stocks going higher and over the next two quarters three quarters With the housing market is do you think those numbers are gonna be record because that's what they're reporting record numbers You think they're gonna be record numbers next year with the housing market is? I don't and if they miss you're going to see a 20% plus decline and that results in a hundred to three hundred percent gain Depending on you know the put that you're buying over over a whole year But that's what you're betting on you don't care about these markets and a (34/36)
six percent moving Nasdaq here and there and you're gonna see those during bear markets, but Earnings are gonna come down Significantly significantly and you're going to see that and that's the danger and that's what I'd be worried about so Any final thoughts Daniel I I do like the conversation we've had about short sellers We need to get a couple on the podcast those would be good interviews and just because I think you're right that they've been made Fun of and this is gonna be a perfect environment, so it's going to pay It's gonna pay to pay attention to it. No absolutely okay guys, so look that's it for me Dan. Thank you so much questions comments I'm sure we get a lot these days Frank curves research calm down with your email Daniel at Curzio research calm alright guys Take care, and see you tomorrow Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the (35/36)
opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember your money and your responsibility (36/36)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The security token revolution is just beginning... And these names are leading the charge.
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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (1/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (2/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (3/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (4/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (5/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (6/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (7/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (8/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (9/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (10/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (11/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (12/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (13/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (14/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (15/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (16/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (17/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (18/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (19/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (20/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (21/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (22/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (23/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (24/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (25/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (26/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (27/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (28/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (29/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (30/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (31/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (32/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (33/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (34/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (35/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (36/36)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - A simple way to make a killing from a market crash.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Tuesday, September 27th I'm pretty courageous to Wall Street unplugged pockets. We're big the hell it's and Tell you what's really moving these markets It's been terrible the markets last week was horrible Monday as well a little bit before that It's getting wrecked so it's nice to walk in and see the markets of about two three hundred Points on a Dow today around 1% across the board nice to see green sometimes and There's a reason for that especially for today We're you seeing a lot of people starting to come out not a lot but big names are coming out saying listen The feds getting a little crazy here They get nuts with these 75 base point hikes. I Mean, it's not just one. It's not just two. It's not just three. It's probably gonna be four now Which is insane. We've never seen that (1/33)
we've never seen at this level. I mean you can say 40 years in 80s I mean we brought the Fed funds rate. We increased it. We doubled it right now We're coming from zero which is I'm president to all the way through four and a quarter by year end which is expected and We're seeing mortgage rates starting to push 7% now And it's getting scary because you're starting to hear from the businesses starting here from the sectors In Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans said he's nervous about the feds going too far too fast I don't think there's another Fed member that I've seen That wasn't 100% We don't see any signs inflation moderating Going all-in. I don't care much pain you see. I mean, this is the first Fed member non-voting so nothing matters But it's making headlines So he's nervous meaning that with the Fed raising raised by 75 basis points in three consecutive meetings About to raise by another hundred basis points by year, and he's saying it could be very dangerous given (2/33)
that We're not allowing The time To pass through from these current massive rate increases We need them to filter through the system and we're not even giving them a chance because it's every meeting It's almost every single month 75 basis point like 75 basis points. I mean 25 basis point like filters through the system. It takes three six sometimes nine months We haven't even seen the last 35 basis point maybe even the one before that It's getting scary now because you say well, we're not in a recession. Everything's gonna be fine If you saw globally what's going on the dollar going through the roof the whole world's investing the dollar expecting in this crash that's coming But the Fed's just ignoring it which is kind of interesting because not too long ago a year ago They were saying with zero percent interest rates and buying bonds that Inflation is transitory now you're raising rates by the faster you ever rate and you said is no white knight No way, it's gonna be transitory. (3/33)
Yeah, Muhammad Al-Aryan has similar take and Has really been going off on the Fed since last year saying they lost total credibility when it comes to inflation I'm gonna transitory transitory transitory when we have five percent last year Remember if we look at the inflation rate which based on CPI which the Fed looks at since 1992 on An annual basis we never had seen never so the CPI hit over four percent I mean didn't have four percent were at five percent and they were like, hey, it's transitory not to see here. Nothing to worry about Again, now the raisin raised by 75 basis points at each meal like it's absolutely normal like this is perfectly normal But you need to wait to see the impact of what's going on Because it's significantly impacting the markets and it's happening so fast It's incredible if you listen to the companies throughout each sector and look at housing at a standstill See the recent price index from S&P case Shiller said home prices falling at its fastest pace in (4/33)
history in July Granted it showed that home prices are up 16% year-over-year, which is insane and I get it even more insane if you break down those details Tampa and Miami up 31% year-over-year home prices. So yes, they're gonna fall but they fell what 3% 4% and This data is July. It's not August. It's July So wait until you see the data from August when mortgage rates were Around 5% they're pushing 7. They're pushing 7% at 6.8% right now But you guys see home prices for at least 15% From these levels over the next few months or at least by year-end Who's buying houses? I mean you shut off the loan market if you have cash. Yes, if you live in Florida, Texas, yes You're gonna see demand still and prices remain relatively high But essentially shut off the housing market all the growth that's involved with it within six months I'm president Retailers out of nowhere sitting on massive inventories when they've seen these supply chain concerns massive demand We got to get everything up and (5/33)
running get everything stores full all sudden demand shut off like a second Have you seen the chip sector lately? Went from massive Unbelievable demand when we need to build fat plants everywhere which costs probably four billion or more To build these massive plants which take a year at least two three years some of them to build It's a massive process Now all of a sudden in a blink of an eye they have gluts Many of these companies But this is what happens when you raise rates this fast without pausing at all just to see hey Let's take a step back just to see what's going on You get massive shocks to the system where inflation is gonna quickly turn into deflation while you're raising rates Let's think about it. The Fed truly believes and they do they believe that keeping rates over four and a quarter percent for all 2023 is not gonna cause a massive recession. They're expecting five percent growth second half next year How is that possible with rates over four percent the housing (6/33)
market interest rates mortgage rates? Seven eight percent. How is that possible? How are you expecting that? Where is it coming from? I mean, this is massive recession close to a possession a depression But you're looking at these guys. Like what are you doing here? I Get it you were wrong All right, and I want to talk about the past and it's so easy to just you know shit on the Fed Everybody does it but right now we're talking about right now You need to sit back and wait Because you're seeing demand destruction across the board almost across every single inch is happening immediately and This morning Kathy Lewis on squawk box always controversial She's always bullish no matter what innovation innovation innovation bullish bullish bullish. Well, you know innovation works when you have a great market But she was saying the Fed is gonna have a major pivot To easier policy. It's gonna happen soon Just US economies in a recession. I agree. She thinks inflation is peak, which I agree (7/33)
Because the market should be discounting to peak in interest rates and should not be surprised to see deflation over the next six months And regardless of what you think of her she is on the front line when it comes to the biggest most innovative companies And she's seeing this Because she also went on CBC to announce that she wants you a new venture fund with Anderson Horowitz, and I forgot the other firm Raising money where they're gonna give not a credit investors chance to invest in private innovative companies and She said something that was disturbing to me She came out and said when it comes to credit investors that people who are not accredited investors in the younger generation Are much much smarter than these accredited investors when it comes innovation because they are fully engulfed in these trends She has a point if you look at a lot of credit investors are older investors Probably don't really know too much about Bitcoin roblox Real late to Tesla and EVs and things like (8/33)
that So I could see like the point she's trying to make okay, I agree with that the only generation holy cow But they're not smarter than accredited investors when it comes to knowing how a deal is structured and that's important that's significant You say well some accredited investors don't but a lot of accredited investors you got there You got your head handed to you, right? You got the shit kicked out of you a couple times and you realize wow Okay, these guys are raising money and and you know, they're doing it at three dollars And they're gonna go public at five six seven dollars and I'm getting in at three and the person who's doing it Just said they're gonna invest a whole bunch of money on into the deal. They're already in it They're gonna invest another million dollars. What you don't know is they invested twenty thousand dollars and got five six seven million shares at a penny so yeah, it's nice to say okay, we're investing a lot more in the next round, but You know at three (9/33)
dollars it you really have to look at valuations to see if it's a bargain or not because the people coming in three That's fine But a lot of these people are in under a dollar who are gonna be selling the shit out of this as soon as it Opens a five and pushing it down to three and they're gonna be selling at three and two because they're in at a dollar When you were able to get in at three, that's what we saw at SPAC's I mean look at chamath and Branson Marketed version galactic. I mean, it's not a terrible company version galactic. It's it's innovative. It's cool The valuation came out, you know, it was insane And that can only happen when you have easy money policy. You have a bunch of idiots saying oh my god I want to invest alongside these guys when you don't realize they didn't buy these put millions into this stock Which I said it did broke down the stats. I think it was last week of the week before with chamath You spend like twenty five thousand dollars buying millions of (10/33)
shares at point zero zero one, whatever Then you got all these SPAC's and pipe deals once they announced and saying okay Well, it's gonna come out at ten gonna raise even more money and we're gonna give these guys You know stock at a dollar fifty and warrants at 250 and it's coming out at ten meaning You know when you see pressure on these things at seven six five You're like who's selling these guys are making a fortune while you bought it I mean, especially when it comes to you have an investor when it comes to version galactic You're buying 15 20 30 while these guys are pumping the shit out of this Chamath and Branson were pumping the crap out of this thing Why so they could dump it made hundreds of millions of dollars? You Can new investors I talked to a lot of these innovative young people right now Especially with the amount of money we invest in the metaverse and what we're doing within You know d5 metaverse nfts and what we're building here and they are brilliant But they're (11/33)
coming to us because they have no idea of how to structure a company. They have no idea I used to think they were creating these tokens on purpose to rip people off. They just don't know I'm like stop ripping off your your your early investors create a real utility Create some kind of demand Where these investors are gonna benefit because when they benefit if you sell this company they do well They're gonna be with you for life. That's how I built my credibility over the last 30 years But they don't know better You don't understand that issuing a billion tokens and you have no demand and no utility feature And all you're gonna have is sellers unless you're pumping it through some kind of social media channel, which is discord and telegram these days But it's interesting Because yes, it's nice for individual investors To be open to these ideas, but they need someone there to say hey, you know what? I mean who knows where? Kathy what is getting in it? Is she getting in real really early (12/33)
and doing a second round or a third round because she's invested a lot of these companies Where even though they're down 60 70 percent? Kathy would made a fortune on these because she was in very very early and yes, you could say well she's down 45 50 60 percent On some of these names that's from the highs But she was investing I mean look at all the names she invested in during the very early early rounds It's how'd she make a fortune But hey, she did say something interesting about Bitcoin That Bitcoin is going to reach 500,000 Within the next five years five hundred thousand. It's twenty thousand right now over twenty thousand and notice how it's been Maintaining these levels. I mean, what's the 18 to 20 21 22 around there, but over the past what? Month month and a half went while stocks tanked May find that interesting how come gold's not seeing that bid Well, the dollar's going up, but the dollars not impacting Bitcoin as much as it goes higher as it is with gold People run into (13/33)
the exits hard to invest in gold with two years yielding more than 4% why on gold stick in a two-year why? Bitcoin Is different are you seeing it to couple itself from the market for the first time in a while, but it's been happening Again, maybe interesting saying wow how's Bitcoin holding up here? It's not that interesting if you do the math if you look at the trillions that are going to have access To Bitcoin to aetherium to some of the big names Look at ripple surging And I'm gonna keep it running So basically what that is is the emergency alert because I am in Florida. We're getting a hurricane So I'm gonna keep that in here usually we like pull it out and say oh no what happened I have my phone on mute too, and that still comes through, but we are experienced our hurricane Not gonna be bad too bad on our end, but yes, Tampa is supposed to get nailed So we'll be reporting about that even tomorrow when it really hits But yes, they're warning and going crazy and again people are (14/33)
worried not really on our coastline That's another topic hot topic they're gonna be talking about tomorrow, but getting back to Kathy woods with Bitcoin 500 It's 20,000 500,000. I mean you could say a hundred thousand right now even that would be a bold forecast But you've seen the access To the institutions and these institutions are having a gonna give their clients access to Bitcoin for the first time ever like the Fidelity's Charles Schwab Black rock don't take my word for it look for how much these guys In terms of assets they have under management From 4 trillion to 20 trillion trillion trillion trillion 1% comes in you're looking at Bitcoin tripling from here What is it 300? 400 billion dollar market caps under 400 billion right now They can have access to some of the biggest names But this is where the money is flowing into even in this market That's why they're raising money in so many of these funds when NFTs defy metaverse you see Walmart one what came out what? Recently a (15/33)
couple days ago entering the metaverse Sonic the what roblox You're gonna create two metaverse experiences once called Walmart land and the other is the universe of play and then second one's gonna be a Virtual game platform right with a video kind of like video games and giveaway Certain things gonna blimp that drops toys and music festivals. They already announced a big concert with three major artists virtual stores merchandise But the understanding how big the metaverse is and 80% of people who go there buy something that all the retailers are going into this space But they're targeting what Gen Z? 25 or younger Millennials under 40 You look at roblox 52 million daily active users They want that audience. That's incredible Hayden this company spelled H a de an to web 3 metaverse company using Computing to scale virtual and metaverse worlds they just raised 30 million in a blink of an eye this is over the weekend 30 million who they backed by epic and ten cent to the biggest In (16/33)
terms of gaming you're seeing money continue to flow into this area. This is where the world is going This is where the innovation is going you're gonna continue to see money pour into these sectors I'm just amazed by the amount of money especially giving these current market conditions Ford Now it's last week. They're entering the metaverse and nfts you file for 19 trademark patents They're creating this open platform not a closed platform like what you see on roadblocks where roblox makes the money Walmart makes the money know For I like what they're doing here. It's an open platform where any developer can build a car use digital artwork They likely share profits with Ford But this is what an open metaverse is all about it's unleashing talent around the world not just Talent from developers you have under your own umbrella You have tons of amazing developers out there. They're gonna be able to take advantage of this opportunity That's what the open metaverse is about instead of (17/33)
getting locked down with a company and making $300,000 a year we're generating you know 25 million dollars in profits for company based on your ideas now You go to these companies or Create through their website and Ford's gonna share probably a large percent of the profits with you And you're gonna have ownership a lot of this stuff And benefits Ford right if someone comes up with innovation for a car that looks absolutely amazing. It's gonna sell you know five million Units of this car based on the design from someone else they would do that in a heartbeat They give someone five ten million dollars in a heartbeat. Let's sell billions of dollars in this car makes sense Benefits Ford benefits of developers be independent. That's what the open metaverse is It's unleashing talent around the world and these developers where again. It's not just in-house people It's the world right that's Creating that's innovating. That's the future. That's where this is going And of course it's the data (18/33)
aspect we don't have to share all your data, or you're not sharing it They're stealing it from you and making money off of you, and that's the model right Google Facebook I think that's the model you get to use these sites for free But they steal everything from you and give it to third parties that can email you call you I mean, I can't tell you how many people call me at least three four people call me there you know They know where I live they want they're like oh, it's your house for sale We could sell if you don't even know me. I'm getting three calls a day from people all these lists What do you think they get this information from? That's why the largest companies in the world are investing so much a biggest Investors billions and billions and tens of billions of dollars into the metaverse This is where it's going people are sick of getting their data stolen the open metaverse is what it's about Good forward sees it Okay, Walmart's testing you're gonna see roblox benefit (19/33)
tremendously because they're testing plus They have get 50 million daily active users so everyone's gonna be testing on those platforms Nike worlds built on roblox as well See if people purchasing stuff And roblox could have an advertising model pretty soon now They just sell different products and sell different things and skin stuff like that through their site But that's the testing ground for roblox and then if the roblox and they're gonna realize wow let's go They're gonna do what Ford does let's open this up Let's see if anyone else outside our company has ideas of how we can grow and we'll pay them for it It could be some kid in a small town in India that nobody knows about it's gonna come up with a great solution for a major problem that Walmart has And you'd never have access to that person unless you had an open platform an open metaverse With that said knows ideas when it comes to equities You have to be careful you guys especially in October It's not because it's what we (20/33)
see all the crashes happen. It's true We just broke through the lows and yes, we're up a little bit today, but we're in dangerous dangerous territory You have people gonna see a statement for the first time and they're not gonna be happy At the end of this month. They're not gonna be happy Yes, a lot of us have access to online we see our but some of them. You know a lot of Retirees don't have working power of watching their home price start to decline again It's still up a lot, but hey my home price is coming down now my portfolio is coming down Considerably down 20% plus likely across the board and really just got hit in September What are you gonna? Do they're gonna be like wow all right? I'm gonna go to cash or buy the two-year generate 4% not bad Also if you look at mutual funds Mutual funds have until October 31st to lock in capital gains of course. It's not gonna be capital gains. It's gonna be losses That they're sitting on So that's for tax purposes Individuals have until the (21/33)
end of the year mutual funds have until October 31st It makes sense for them to be selling like crazy Because they're sitting on massive massive losses many of these people You can offset your gains Which is for selling? You can see lots and lots of selling and probably selling at the lows So if you think something's down 25% is trading at a 9 PE and it's growing those earnings by 10% You're like this is a great deal be patient wait Because you're gonna get a better deal. This is gonna happen throughout October Especially with funds who was it 90% are underperforming and Underperforming significantly, and this is going on during earning season where many companies Are gonna be lowering or removing their guidance like FedEx did Since every sector one by one is going to experience with the housing market the chip sector has just experienced Massive demand and out of nowhere within a month month and a half two months. It shuts off demand destruction That's what happens when you raise (22/33)
rates at this pace this fast as quickly and while you're seeing this massive destruction in demand Consumers closing their wallets what's happening people are flooding into the dollar which is up like 20% where Every 2% move higher in a dollar user results in a 1% decline or to headwind earnings through 20% the dollar so gonna add 10% hit earnings earnings if You're looking at the analyst, which is what I do Daniel does we look at this we look at earnings see they're not lowering. They're lowering. They're not lowering fast enough and That's why you're gonna see so many of these companies say you know We're removing guidance because you're gonna be able to get away with it FedEx Warren you're gonna see other companies Warren say we need to wait and see because we really don't believe That I mean our earnings just got destroyed We've seen demand come down for most companies throughout both sectors And yet we're watching the Fed tell us that they're gonna considerably raise rates further (23/33)
and keep them that high through 2023 into 2024 for a full year if you're a company and You really believe that the feds gonna do that what you should because that's exactly what they said and they reiterated from Jackson Hall over Here again last meeting and it keeps saying they're gonna do it How do you offer guidance if you're in a housing market? How do you offer guidance when everything's getting turned off? And you just went from three percentage streets in January to close to seven percent and probably going higher How do you order your supplies how do you build houses yes, you have the current contracts under a negative fulfill those Requirements for many of these places and yes, you still have a Surprise problem where there's not a lot of supply for homes But even the chip sector we're sitting on this massive glut now. Where's the man gonna come from? All these auto companies are they are these people who put down? $500 for a new EV that you were supposed to get a year ago And (24/33)
you did this two years ago now You just realize that EV you're gonna purchase is 35 40 percent higher than what you were gonna purchase it for Are you gonna pull that now and say you know what let me just buy like this gas vehicle Instead of buying a brand new first-generation car that you it's gonna get recalled at least five times because all these guys never built an EV in their lives outside of Tesla and Scaled it you're gonna see it you're seeing it now. I mean Ford the EV almost all EVs that have been released have been recalled That happens all the time But even more because the battery technology you're gonna replace the battery whatever Seen lots of recalls they run into lots of problems. They're trying to get these things to market so fast I haven't been able to test them as they normally test them We'll see so the good news The good news here is stay patient Once the Fed stops raising rates, which by the way We've never seen the equity markets bottom as the Fed is raising (25/33)
rates during a tightening cycle. It almost never happens You usually need to see interest rates top out and they haven't topped out. They're still going higher Maybe a little bit lower today cuz the marks going up but still the trend is higher We've haven't seen it. It never happens ever happens. It's not gonna happen this time If you just randomly say wow, I like this stock. I like that stock. It makes sense to buy this be careful It doesn't even matter what stock And I thought Costco's numbers were really good. Yes subscriptions came in a tiny bit light, but they 17% growth I believe it was in sales 11% in earnings if I'm not mistaken The stock was already down over 20% from its highs and it got nailed on that news Was it a fantastic quarter? No But it was pretty good and I guarantee that quarter is gonna be better than 90% of the companies that are gonna report going forward over the next month month and a half But look out so we all gonna have incredible buying up to you, but you (26/33)
need to be patient And for now focus on some of the few things that are working Bitcoin is working innovation with the NFTs and the metaverse is working You see more more companies become purer plays on that not just a small portion of it But roblox is a great play. I mean it's down 70% they're still growing and Still signing up tons of customers, but at 30 bucks 30 something. I mean seems like a steal down here Uranium Uranium is not going away. I mean that demand even if prices come down and we see what we're doing strategic oil reserve. I know president's doing keeping all prices low into the Election Season I get it makes sense. I know why he's doing everyone knows why he's doing it, but it's you know If you're looking at what happened to these companies what happened in Europe? They're never going to make they're gonna make sure the next 30 years they're never in a position like this where one country like Russia could just Pull 40% of your energy and you're just stuck on an (27/33)
island going. Holy shit. What do I do? You sitting there with one of the best options in the world safest Cleanest 24-hour base load power available That means all day all night not when the wind blows not when the Sun comes out And you're seeing in Europe. I mean they're going back to coal right Germany's going back to coal Major finish go back to coal. It's not a surprise These climate change idiots don't care but people are going to die unless they get heat in the winter and they're in a lot of trouble Over there, it's bad Nuclears the option Uranium, so I'm interviewing Amir Adnani on Thursday's a president CEO co-founder of uranium energy UEC It's gonna be on Thursday great great conversation. Make sure you listen, but that's an area that stocks have Been volatile well off their lows will pull back from their highs. But wow, I think this is a great market government supporting it now Our government supporting it now makes a lot of sense Let's see when it comes to the market Let's (28/33)
see how much of these stocks sectors sell off because even biotech looks incredibly attractive Look at names that are trading at or below net cash If you get biotech is a mark that peaked in September 2021 so a year ago the four or five months before the overall equity market peaked and these things have gotten destroyed 70 80 percent 80 percent plus good names that actually generating revenue That's a great opportunity that markets probably gonna come back a lot quicker I still think it's it's probably 20 25 percent off of its lows, which isn't really saying that much Because they were down so much but great opportunities there But overall going into next month guys follow you stops. You have to play defense by puts Which Jenny Terranova's been doing in our money flow trader newsletter. She just booked another triple-digit winner what the February 2023 put on e zu which is The Eurozone ETF that tracks large and mid cap stocks within Europe, so basically she's betting against European (29/33)
equities so get this she bought this put last month and just closed out for a hundred and fifty percent gain and Basically has been doing this over and over and over again for the past ten months Well, the equity markets have been absolutely crashing and buying puts is not shorting You don't have that unlimited risk which you have to worry about the only risk in amount of money you put up to buy that put Moneyfold trader if I had a guest guys probably the best before in financial newsletter this year. I mean nobody's even close Very proud to have this product under our umbrella We do a special interview with Jena get some of the favorite ideas going forward What you do is behind our paywall for existing subscribers all existing subscribers It's an instant money for a trader trying it out for three months Same an email Frank has a research comm you need to learn to protect yourself If you're not interested you think all Frank's selling something or whatever This is something I've been (30/33)
pushing as soon as it's that pivoted in November it's a fundamental change in the market and Forget that this is protecting yourself or hedging This is how you make a fortune when the markets crash you agreed Meter should be going through the roof because if you're able to generate these returns while the market is coming down You're gonna be sitting on massive cash Especially throughout tokes this market is incredibly overvalued it's either gonna fall a ton in October a fall lot over the next few months as The Fed continues to raise rates. It's gonna be a very difficult market But if you look past if you look man the last 10-12 years If you look at these market crashes they happen quickly they happen fast and then You see the markets rebound now It's different because the feds raising rates, but the Fed cannot continue to raise rates and keep them well over 4% For low in three to six months even three months You're going to see it you need to take a step back and watch the monthly (31/33)
data forget about the CPI since it's fixed and use Shelter as 30% of that component we saw inflation last month with energy prices crashing Think about that. That's how much You're Looking at rentals and Shelter accounts for the CPI stop looking at that because that's not going down anytime soon Listen to the companies listen to what they're telling you because we're looking at two rate hikes to 75 base point rate hikes and another one coming the last two are not factored into the market yet and you're seeing Sector by sector shut off demand destruction be very very careful. It's gonna get worse before it gets better. We broke through the lows It's not a good sign But be careful cuz it's gonna create an unbelievable buying opportunity But there's times to be aggressive times to be patient play defense play defense You get to have the money flow trader if you're interested Frank curves research calm And any questions guys during this time? I know it's rough getting a lot of questions. (32/33)
I'm here for you Frank has research calm just feel free to see me in mail whenever you want really appreciate all support Now I'll see you guys Daniel tomorrow. Take care You (33/33)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Why the Coinbase vs. SEC saga is a huge deal for crypto.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's Wednesday, July 27th, and good morning. Good afternoon and good evening Wherever you are you are turning into the Wall Street unplugged podcast. Hello and welcome I am your guest host your Transitory host your fill-in guest behind the microphone for the one and only Frank Curzio who normally does this founder of Curzio research I Daniel Creech senior research analyst here at Curzio research the one that works alongside behind and for the one and only Frank Curzio who is down south on a much-needed family vacation Miami no further the Bahamas even further Cuba no South and southeast Frank is down in the Dominican Republic Partying it up living it up with his family on some resort. I looked at a picture of it. It's gorgeous down there So good for him. He needs some R&R down there, but I (1/33)
Will steer the ship here behind the podcast today and tomorrow and for all you paying subscribers I will also get to do frankly speaking on Friday Today Wednesday the best day of the week. Normally Frank and I are going back and forth on headlines and fun stories and things Later this afternoon the Federal Reserve will meet and then Jerome Powell Fed chair will hold a press conference and discuss the Raising of interest rates today. I'll get to that in just a second and the key there and I've seen and I've read articles And I'm sure you have to out there if you've paid attention to any of this What he says in the press conference following today's two o'clock or two thirty announcement will be much more important than the actual Raising of interest rates they do today Because the markets are forward-looking Everybody's worried about a recession the GDP print comes out or a revised print comes out on Thursday It could be the second quarter of negative growth Technically meaning a (2/33)
recession Frank joked about that and pointed out how when things don't go your way you simply just move the goalpost Change the definition and we're in a world where you can change the definition of damn near anything right now So The consensus is the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points today And that's basically baked into the market. There's a small chance in some people betting that you might get a 1% interest rate rise today That's very low odds anything could happen I doubt if they would shock that if I had to look in and shake my eight ball or you know Rub into the crystal ball, I guess of genie in the lamp type stuff Family episode. I got to keep it clean here. I would say yes, they do the 75 basis points I think that Jerome Powell is going to continue the path of hey, we're gonna keep looking at data. We're gonna be data dependent yada yada yada but the next Months when when next month's inflation reading comes out for for right now, that's going to be (3/33)
signal But he doesn't know that so he's just gonna have to play and walk the tightrope of data dependent We're gonna be able to change our mind we're gonna do everything we can we're gonna throw the kitchen sink at it You know, we're gonna get inflation down because families are hurting and all that which is all true. However They're just in a very very tight spot because they can't raise rates too much or they're really gonna hurt the economy and everything else So it's a very very tight corner They've painted themselves into I'll cover a little bit more of that in tomorrow's episode after I listen to or go through some of the press conference and things But that's not the most important thing. I want to talk to you about right now. That is important Don't get me wrong, but we have to wait a little bit on that I want to talk to you about the drama going on and the back and forth between Coinbase and the Security Exchange Commission and several or at least a couple other groups (4/33)
involved and For once we get to discuss Frank and I try to pick fun topics here and there on Wednesday and for once we get to discuss the Wall Street drama the Kardashian version the reality TV version of this Without involving Elon Musk just yet now It does involve a you know, there is there is tweets here And of course we got that fiasco, but this is kind of interesting and to shape this so there's a couple Wall Street Journal articles that I'm gonna refer to and the US the title of the first one is The US files first crypto insider trading case. So the first is always exciting. There's a first for everything as they say Now crypto currencies are in this gray area from an enforcement or legal standpoint and what I mean by that is a crypto currency isn't technically a Security like a stock like you buy Microsoft or McDonald's or something like that It's this digital asset. Well, what rules what regulation does that fall under who gets to enforce those and remember? When I I want you (5/33)
to keep something in mind here as I go through this this story and saga We're all humans we all have things to prove we all have emotions we all have opinions egos Etc. And when you mix that with government entities and power you're going to get chaos silliness and Probably a rigid and rugged system not necessarily a smooth flowing process Keep that in mind because these things tend to last and when I say these things these stories these litigations the legislation To move from a thought to a rule to for rules to be clarified Securities to be clarified what is deemed this and that registration all that kind of stuff. This is all going to take time and There's no final answer yet. I'll get to who's going to be hurt the most obviously coinbase. Look at their look at their stock going from Pull up a chart here At the crypto highs of last year when Bitcoin was making new highs near 70,000 everything crypto related was at least moving up or most likely was coinbase was give or take 350 a (6/33)
share and now it's around $50 a share. So that's significant and They're obviously going to be hurt because they're in the crosshairs right now and this is going to continue I will say one of the companies I think that will benefit from all this I don't see how they don't benefit from the coming regulation the coming crackdown But that's and it's an old friend of ours and I'll get to that. I'm trying to tease it a little bit Just stay with me here for a few moments but again Even the company I think is in a perfect position to benefit is not going to benefit overnight These things take time they take these processes need to play out. So I have all that being said Let's get to the coinbase and fun times between the SEC and the DOJ Yes, the Department of Justice as he had been involved To start things off. I want to show you how long this has taken and how these processes get drawn out I'm gonna go back all the way to September 7th 2021 Oh almost a year ago CEO Brian Armstrong of (7/33)
coinbase went on a tweet storm now tweet storm for everybody out there That's not into social media such as I even though I follow it for work The tweet storm is just a lot of tweets to get your point or opinion across because When you tweet out something or post something there's only so many characters allowed per tweet So if you're gonna put the lyrics to a song out there It's gonna take several instead of just one long one because you got to break it up This tweet storm is like 20 different tweets or something ridiculous and not all of them are that important So I'm not gonna call them to your attention However numero uno you want to start with an opening good line to get people's attention and that's exactly What Brian Armstrong does here? Remember? This is last year. This is September 7th, 2001 Number one some really sketchy behavior coming out of the SEC recently story time Okay, that's tweet number one Number two millions of crypto holders have been earning yield on their (8/33)
assets over the last few years It makes sense. If you want to lend out your funds you can earn a return Everyone seems happy This is in relation to Coinbase earn which was allowing people to hold their crypto currencies there They lend them out earn a return like a yield like a think of a savings account or a CD in terms of not not in terms of the legality in terms of the earning of interest on it and Brian Armstrong was upset and the remaining remainder of this tweet comes it comes to the point and says listen we were Outgoing we were going to we were reaching out to all these to the SEC to everybody else and saying hey Here's what we're gonna do. It's already being done in the crypto world and you saw some crazy yields being generated and They said we're just doing this and we're trying to be We're trying to register with you not register. Excuse me. We're trying to let you know and do this by the book We want to do this right and legit. We're just offering this because it's a (9/33)
product that people want Well long story short the SEC said if you go through with this we're going to sue you and they wouldn't give clarification This is according to coinbase Brian Armstrong in his tweets The SEC wouldn't give clarification to what they exactly needed to do in order to get this lend Excuse me earn program off and running. So it got scrapped. I Point this out because again, we're all humans. We all have grudges where we can hold grudges We shouldn't but we do you want to prove points and this back and forth has been going on So things are not good between the SEC and coinbase anyway And Brian Armstrong calls them out and says that they were the SEC was one of the only groups They wouldn't meet with him when he went down to Washington to meet with Legislators and all that kind of stuff because this is after they went public Now fast forward so, you know things aren't great. The SEC doesn't like coinbase coinbase doesn't like the SEC They're not registered as a typical (10/33)
exchange like the New York Stock Exchange or anything like that Which comes with a lot more regulations and or disclosures and cost so that's one big thing here, too Coinbase is newer program newer exchange. Excuse me held digital assets are all new so Coming from that and they're already upset the Wall Street Journal on Friday 22nd of July this year simply states the US files first crypto insider trading case Now this this gets interesting Federal authorities brought the first ever cryptocurrency insider trading case Thursday accusing a former coinbase. Dang it global Coinbase manager of tipping off his brother and a friend with confidential information And signaling in a comparison case that the aggressive new push to police digital tokens Now prosecutors in Manhattan filed wire fraud charges, etc, etc. We don't need to go over that insider trading is the big deal here the SEC's classification of the digital tokens as Unregistered securities could have wide-ranging effects on the (11/33)
cryptocurrency industry and expose coinbase and other platforms to new legal Liabilities and regulatory requirements. That's a fancy way of saying a lot more higher cost to operate your business And why is that important that's important because the exchange business is tough by itself. What do I mean by that? Coinbase and other exchanges your typical exchanges simply give a platform to investors to buy and sell different Assets securities whatever you want to call them. Well, they take fees they take trading fees they take listing fees and some sorts of the assets that are on their platform and That's the main source of revenue in most cases. So I get on I buy XYZ I sell XYZ You're paying commissions here and there the assets that you're buying either paid commissions or pay listing fees to get on there That's the revenue generator for the exchange now okay, that's good if you you get a lot of buzz you get a lot of people trading cryptos or digital assets or whatever that Is and you (12/33)
get a lot of users on there buying and selling that generates a lot of fees if you get more listings Depending on how your revenue is structured there that brings in more fees for the exchange. That's all good. However, it's a tough business Why because fees go down over time because of competition Look at your typical e trade or Scott trade or brokerage firm fidelity and such on the stock side Many if not all the major ones right now You can buy and sell stock for free. How do they make money? Well, they make money in different areas They have asset management. They have advisory services where you charge fees and ongoing things not consulting. That's not the right word. Excuse me, but It advisory fees more than more the less Managed accounts things like that to my knowledge coinbase doesn't have that yet And that is a big big big problem not not in a problem in a sense that they can't offer they don't just because What I'm talking about here is the legal liability and regulatory (13/33)
requirements is just going to add to cost of already a tough business now evidently these Alleged insider traders netted about one and a half million dollars in illegal profits Then one gentleman Let's see our message is this is good. You got it. You got to come out swinging and one of the Damian Williams the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York says our message with these charges is clear Fraud is fraud is fraud whether it occurs on the blockchain or on Wall Street The big deal here in the alleged crime is the individual at Coinbase Was one of a handful I don't want to say handful a few people with knowledge they had advanced knowledge of timing and public announcements of the assets on the exchange the exchange plan to list now This is key because as I told you it's a tough business if you're a small group of people and you know token XYZ is Going to be listed on Coinbase soon if you go in front run that or if you know that knowledge and you go and buy these tokens It's (14/33)
not a guarantee. However, the odds are really really really good once these hit a platform to where you have Millions or a lot more users that maybe didn't know about this asset in the past a rising tight lifts all boats So if you get this rush And you have a combination of all kinds You have some people that are gonna do quite a bit of research and due diligence You have other people that are just gonna trade because they like to trade and it's fun Gamification type deal in the adrenaline you have a couple of people that are just gonna Buy or invest or trade off of hearsay and hey, did you hear about this token XYZ? It's gonna revolutionize the world It's gonna save the planet. It's gonna kill all the bad guys, etc, etc, whatever it does It's going to generate buzz and people are going to go there and look at it and the odds of that are going up The odds of the price there is going to go up so this is what how they made their illegal one and a half million dollars because they would (15/33)
just front run they would buy all these tokens and It's interesting the Wall Street Journal points out that some of the trades drew public scrutiny Back in April a Twitter account well known in the crypto community flagged the purchase of hundreds of thousands of tokens About 24 hours before they were named in the public listing announcement for coinbase It said and now this never looks good. I'm not and again. Hey, you're innocent until proven guilty in my eyes But we're gonna have some fun with this on this podcast because on May 11th the exchanges security operations director emailed. Mr. Wahi WHI however you say that I'm butchering it telling him to attend an in-person meeting Prosecutors said the day before the meeting. He bought a one-way ticket flight to India scheduled to depart the next day Now again, I'm not saying you're guilty, but boy does that look good on your end You want to have a meeting about anything sure and I've been in those meetings not for insider trading of (16/33)
course But I've been called down to the principal's office. So to speak and you did you say this? What are you doing? And edit it just part of it, but you got to be careful with your one-way ticket purchases The case this insider trading case is the latest signal that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are making an enforcement push on alleged insider trading schemes and digital assets Prosecutors last month charged a former employee on the NFT Marketplace with using insider information to profit off NFTs non-fungible tokens big part of the crypto community We'll set that aside for another day What's interesting here is in another Push back coinbase false SEC enforcement efforts. This is on page two as well of the Wall Street Journal last Friday The takeaway here that I found really interesting is you want to think about okay what happens We'll go through a few scenarios here and I'll lead in with this because the head of the SEC. Mr Gensler has floated the possibility in recent months (17/33)
of working with cryptocurrency issuers and trading platforms like coinbase to create exemptions to certain sec requirements that's key because Whether you're a fan or not of crypto it's a massive industry and yeah, it was you know What three trillion I think is all the cryptos got up at the peak near last November now I think it's down to a trillion or or even less maybe But it's a massive Asset class already and it's still young and it's still new the the sweeping notion that hey the SEC comes down and says Coinbase is Illegally or non-compliantly listing assets that should be deemed as securities or stocks as we think about them and Therefore they have to shut down. Okay end of story Roll up the sidewalks. We're going home that Let's say is a percentage or has a percentage of happening, but it's very very very small I'm not I'm not personally worried and I could be totally wrong I'm not worried about the SEC coming down and saying you can't do business anymore because It's such a big (18/33)
industry and it's already got billions of dollars And there's a lot of there's a lot of other people that would be her other Industries developers things like that The ecosystem is building out the economy around digital assets is continuing to build out and will continue to build out Because the biggest dog in the crypto world and the leader of the pack and the ultimate numero numero uno Bitcoin Is not even a security in mr. Gensler's eyes from the SEC. He said that in the past and That would fall under more of a commodities trading platform or security so now That's one scenario I don't think will happen. Okay, you're just got a shot shut down But for coinbase and other exchanges and coin bases is the big one here because it's publicly traded and it's in the limelight What if the SEC just said okay now you have to register all these as securities and you have to pay these fines and What's typical on Wall Street in between investment banks and or trading platforms? The like is a sense (19/33)
of hey We're suing you or we're charging you with this. We're gonna settle you're not gonna admit any wrongdoing You're just gonna pay a lot of fines and we're just gonna wash our hands and go through the revolving door and we'll see in a few months That's the way the game is played a lot Doesn't mean it's going to continue to always be played that way But the path of least resistance is that revolving door is that just admit to no guilt pay big fines however, that would crush coinbase and With Bitcoin getting hit and being around 20,000 versus 70,000 You're gonna have less people actively doing that people were getting scared You've had these blow ups and stable coins and you've had this ripple effect in these absolutely terrible bear market Which is now bear market but a market crash from November of last year That would be terrible for coinbase and it's not a surprise and you got to give him credit Famous short seller and wonderful analyst and he's already he's on Twitter. He's on (20/33)
CNBC at different times, but Jim chinos is Has been short I'm I believe he still is but it was very recently when I saw him give a quick interview or a post about being short corn Coinbase so I'm sure he is absolutely cleaning up on this stock as it drifts lower Even though it rallied along with the crypto market a little bit ago It's down I think 20% over the last few trading days as these SEC and lawsuits and alleged to come out Either way coinbase is not in good shape out of that and to keep the drama going on the same day July 22nd coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal put out a blog post and I remember talking to Frank as I opened the podcast or this story with Brian Armstrong's tweet storm from last year. I Was surprised I remember talking to Frank on a Wall Street unplugged podcast It is good to see people stand up for themselves It is it is good to see leaders and things go out there and state your case and be bold and all that kind of stuff However, you want to continue to (21/33)
understand the game and the environment you're in and this is for all investors as well The odds are stacked against you that doesn't mean you don't you shouldn't play it just means you got to pay attention more and It's one thing to stand up and fight back and voice your opinion and all that That's great. And and I always would back that You want to be cautious though because you have a few to share your responsibility and nobody is man I can't I can't not bring him up. He's in so much drama, but Twitter everybody likes or hates Elon Musk But you could argue if he's good or bad for shareholders and stock price has done well over time So results don't lie in that aspect But you want somebody to stand up? Except for the fact that you got to remember who you're taking on and you're taking on the SEC and you're fighting huge government Agencies that have unlimited power so to speak Unlimited funds and they can ruin your business model Quickly, I mean that that is a huge risk You don't (22/33)
want this and as I pointed out this has been going on back and forth forget that it was over lend there's obviously a lot of issues and a lot of strife and a lot of bad blood between Coinbase and the SEC right now and You have to make matters worse in my opinion The chief legal officer comes out with a coinbase blog and it's titled coinbase does not list securities end of story Well hell that sums it up. Mr. Chief legal officer Why didn't you just tell the SEC that before it went in the Wall Street Journal and your stock dropped down to $50 a share All right, that's moving on here We've said it before But given today's events he's talking about the SEC charges It bears repeating Following now listen to this. This is where he's he's trying to point out. This is one of those read between the lines This is a good angle here in my opinion because he points out the Department of Justice Investigation into a former coinbase employee misuse of confidential coinbase information related to (23/33)
listing decisions just talked about that the Security and Exchange Commission the SEC Separately filed security fraud charges against the individual related this wrongdoing now there's nine digital assets involved in this case and it's funny because The couple of articles in the Wall Street Journal in this blog post here Don't don't list the nine, but I went to I searched around in coin desk, which is it was just a good news source or website for cryptocurrencies has them listed here and it's And to be honest with you and this doesn't mean anything because I'm not an expert on crypto and I don't know all the cryptos out there but AMP, RLY, DDX POWR those are a couple of the ticker symbols and I haven't heard of any of them Again, that doesn't matter but I just found it interesting that I had to actually go look and it wasn't referenced at all in any of these but The SEC alleges the nine digital assets involved are securities Here's the in between the line This is a good point the DOJ (24/33)
reviewed the same facts and chose not to file securities fraud charges against those individuals and as the CFTC Commissioner Caroline FOM or fam, however, you say that stated a quote This is a quote striking example of regulatory by enforcement. Now. You might ask what's the CFTC that's the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Remember we got a lot of agencies involved in this You got the Department of Justice DOJ You got the SEC the Security Exchange Commission and now you got the CFTC Commodity Future Trading Commission Which from a commodity standpoint? Think of gold The Bitcoiners or even Gensler has said that Bitcoin could be regularly regulated by the CFT or he didn't say that but he's he's hinted at that because if Bitcoin is deemed a quote-unquote commodity Then it would fall under the enforcement or jurisdiction or however the hell you want to put it painted in between the lines of the CFTC the blog blog post of the chief legal officer of coinbase points out that obviously (25/33)
they respectfully disagree with the SEC and agree with the They disagree with the SEC and agree with the CFTC Commissioner saying that it's just regulation by enforcement Seven of the nine assets that the SEC listed in the charges on the alleged insider trading So seven of these nine are listed on coin bases platform. None of these assets are securities the blog reads Coinbase has a rigorous process to analyze and review each digital asset before making it available in our exchange a process Listen to this kicker a process that the SEC itself has reviewed now Again trying to play middle of the road here and being on the fence post and not take sides because I want to try to Just give you the facts of what's going on here or explain this drama as it unfolds That is a hell of a line though a process that the SEC itself has reviewed now reviewed is one thing That's not saying it signed off on anything the SEC That's not saying it approves or agrees with that's just saying it's reviewed it (26/33)
But that's an interesting piece of information and I think worth knowing more about What do they think about it and why aren't they saying whatever they think maybe we're just not smart Maybe it's above our pay grade us us young Individual investors are non pointy shoes non elitist non non powerful people here. We're just we're just running the rat race That that needs to be dug into more the process includes analysis whether assets could be considered a security again evidently, this is all the process that the SEC it's already reviewed and considers regulatory compliance and information security Aspects of the asset to be explicit the majority of assets that we review are not ultimately listed on Coinbase So they're trying to take the high road and say listen, we're going through all these over and over We're going through tons and tons of assets We take a very select few of them because we want to do what's right for the individual We want to follow the rules best we can even though (27/33)
they're not clear. They're clear as mud They're trying to follow this but they still want a tightrope. They don't want to say their securities They don't want to register on all that kind of thing. So you can see how this is a tangled web of mess They go on to say we have cooperated with the SEC's investigation and the wrongdoing charged by the DOJ But instead of having a dialogue with us about the seven assets on our platform the SEC jumped directly to litigation This goes back and why I brought it up from a almost a year ago when Brian Armstrong was upset and called out and said Listen, we're trying to be proactive We're telling you what we're going to do and instead of you asking or telling us to clarify You simply are saying if we go through with this product, we're going to be sued that is not a good situation or back and forth to make capitalism and Technology advance and the gooder the the good for everybody We worry today's charges suggest the SEC has little interest in the (28/33)
most fundamental role of regulators now that's just a good tongue-in-cheek sign off handshake middle fingers all that stuff is I Say all that because I want you to pay attention to this as it unfolds because it's going to cause a lot of volatility In digital assets Bitcoin and everything else not that everything and not that all these digital assets are tied together don't misunderstand But it is important about that it because if you see bad news come out It's going to get hit and the entire industry could go down now I'll touch more on this tomorrow But coinbase if you're in that you want to be careful because there's a lot of shares sold short sold short. Excuse me So there's gonna be a lot of pressure to the downside if I had to play it I would look to sell any rips and Use it as a trading vehicle not a long-term investment because of what's at stake here Who do I think will benefit from all this over time is Overstock now why is overstock going to benefit over time because they (29/33)
have a control well They they started meta chief ventures with blockchain assets their big flagship product is t0 yes, the t0 platform that the Curzio research security token trades on and What overstock has done overstock is the e-commerce? Platform where you buy furniture and all kinds of stuff. We're not involved in that What they did was they took their assets and they partnered and they created this partnership with Pelion And I'm probably butchering that as well. But long story short overstock took their blockchain t0 meta chief investments put them in a category over here and let The and is letting the manager of this partnership Pelion make take it take it with it and run so Medici ventures and overstock Overstock held approximately 42 percent and 41 percent respectively of t zeros outstanding common stock That's the big takeaway by buying overstock. You get exposure to the t0 platform I say all that because as you have more regulation and T zeros in the same boat and they're (30/33)
trying to do SEC in compliance and we're you know You you got to look at your listings and things like that But what is bad news for digital assets and being registered as securities on some of these exchanges? I don't see how that doesn't benefit a security token platform. That's at least trying to say Hey, we have more disclosures. We're going by the book or the regular SEC's and things of that nature Overstock is going to be extremely volatile. That's another chaotic We've talked about the wild ex-former founder and CEO Patrick Byrne several times. We've written about it and Even recommended at a time. So it's it's been a black eye most of the time, but keep this on your radar. I believe they The 42 and 41 percent that I just pulled was from their March quarterly report I believe the overstock reports earnings tomorrow, so I'll go through that Depending on what time it is. I don't know if I'll be able to talk about on tomorrow's podcast. But anyway Keep that on your on your radar (31/33)
Because overall I think the security token platform will benefit in time And it might take longer than I want or we would like if you're if you're long that To really benefit from that unfolding. So alright, hopefully I you were entertained and enjoyed the backstory of the SEC Versus coinbase. We'll talk more about it in the future as it unfolds Program you know, I will be here tomorrow like I said so I'm gonna talk about the Fed funds decision the interest rate height and the following press conference as well as some earnings and the difference between the markets and the economy I Let's see here. Yeah, I think I've covered about everything I want so a little longer than normal I'm crossing that 30 market 30 minute mark So you guys have a great wonderful day. I can't wait to do this again tomorrow Questions comments feedback good or bad Daniel at Curzio research comm that's Daniel at Curzio research comm Cheers Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most (32/33)
respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (33/33)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - My biggest lesson from 9/11.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's September 14th, I'm Frank Curzio host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets There's a pretty amazing and emotional weekend A Lot of that had to do with the 20th anniversary of September 11th. Can't believe it's 20 years 20 years Doesn't seem like it's that long But trying to explain this To anyone who's under 35 years old. It's not easy. I mean it's like you can't Like someone who lived through Pearl Harbor trying to explain that event to someone my age And We're just not gonna get it. You weren't there. You didn't see it that emotion Sino about investment books you could read as many as you want and all these risks today Until you go through it until you're so sure on something and you just get wrecked (1/33)
there and go through that experience of those emotions That's when it sticks with you. That's when the lessons learned. That's what everything you know just those feelings come out and This was an event that made the world stop Showed us how vulnerable we are in the u.s. We had this pride and we're great. We're awesome strong best military and holy cow Also showed the power of unity so we all came together during What the toughest times if not the toughest time most of our lives But seeing so much of this again on all the channels no politics MSN BC did a great job. They did a live replay like the live replay of that day just showing the whole entire thing to the 60-minute piece they did on the FD and why the fire department during September 11th a Must one of the most powerful things I've ever saw Holy cow Holy cow I mean to the stories people told who were in the Twin Towers when the planes hit And even to that Mets Yankees game how great was that? September 11 was electric the (2/33)
atmosphere unity players wearing NYFD NYPD caps Bring back Joe Torre and people from back then and just showing a president's pitch and that strike and how big of a deal that was It really was We just brought back a lot of memories both good and bad Hey my experience I worked at Wall Street before September 11th, and then a few years again after I'm gonna work at the street But I was not working in New York City at that time. I was living in Queen still But a lot of my friends did and the stories they told me some of her covered in white dust They couldn't get out of New York City until that night The phones weren't working so their families didn't know if they were alive So one of my closest friends at the time his brother-in-law were top people in NYPD one of the first to respond along with the fire commissioner and Giuliani was there and They're waiting to see what to do if the second plane hit they're like, okay We need to speak to the building inspectors engineers, so they're (3/33)
waiting for them to get there they get there They said there's no way those buildings are coming down So his brother-in-law sent in Around 20 police officers into burning towers Every one of them died. So these are people that he knew closely Least some of them right and knew their families And think about that for a minute you forget a lot of this stuff in those stories And again, it's not knock on the building inspectors at all Are you looking at? There was no high-rise steel building that ever collapsed from a fire in history And then as they saw the floors coming down a little bit getting reports as those guys You know climb those floors. It's you know, it was too late. I mean not too late They still get a lot of people on said hey, you know what? the structure it's It's probably gonna collapse And so in 60 minutes when they got that message to them and then boom the first one collapsed the first tower But you're looking at this what where? The planes they hit the 64 the 80th floor (4/33)
So bill inspectors it know even police fire department didn't know I mean the 1680th floor I don't know if you realize how big twin towers you could be across the street and you can look up and not see the top I mean you'd have to your neck is as far back as you possibly can you can't even that's how big these buildings are So you're like, okay, you're good. You can go in, you know Let's get people out under the 50 floors and then try to get everyone out or whatever a lot of cops died that day fire Firemen died that day. They saw his brother about two months later Totally different person quiet kind of just staring at things I'm a smile that I guess saw him another time after never smiled a Lot of people you know, how do you come back from that? He'd be fucked up for life you Trying to do your job trying to save people now this happened on Tuesday. So on Thursday morning, I Wanted to get down and I wanted to see it for myself you know if in New York my whole entire life and I was just (5/33)
taking the M train from Queens New York or I live to see you know If I get down up that train goes straight down to Wall Street one train If you go to Midtown, you gotta take another train go anyplace to get this train just drops off you know, you just go to Wall Street, but also, you know, one of the stops is World Trade Center and Most of New York City was on lockdown not a lot of people out in or out of the downtown area Let's do a helping and they had the right proper, you know Identification and badges was blocked probably up to Midtown and You had to be law enforcement fire department Helping bring in food. I Say, you know, let me try Let me get on this train goes right downtown to the World Trade Center. I Don't want my girlfriend at the time so Everyone on that train workers cops firemen My would dress down Yeah, I'm thinking yeah, you know if they asked me to get off I'll get off for this guys to get off it and you Know did nobody everyone had blank stares and just you know It (6/33)
was crazy like nobody know what to do and again, this is still a rescue mode here Right because people were still trapped. They trying to rescue him. I'm surprised nobody questioned us You know, we kind of look like we belong and you know Next thing I know the train just kept going We got off the World Trade Center and made our way upstairs. I Mean, I'll never forget it the mist from that dust still in the air Rubble everywhere. I mean we were right the twins out right there Hundreds of people which is probably thousands but it was hundreds where I was searching for survivors. It was very very quiet I talked about New York City downtown cabs loud horns traffic people everywhere it was it was just Quiet very very quiet and I remember looking at everyone's face And it was just like our face it was just is this a dream it's just is this real it's really happening and When I go back to that day, it's easy to think about the negatives It's easy to think about sadness or even get angry and (7/33)
pissed off The way I remember this event or what I think about today is and this is from being there is the unity the patriotism How everyone came together? Didn't matter politics race gender what country you were from it didn't matter There's a traumatic event that impacted all of us and it quickly let us know What's really important in our lives you're living our families our freedoms But you're seeing everyone working together. You're looking at all the stores that were open and it wasn't a lot So the Starbucks McDonald's, you know restaurants and the workers went there. They were given free food free drinks to everyone People drove from places like Ohio Michigan, Pennsylvania, I mean eventually they would drive from California and everything like days later The firemen policemen from departments all over the country came to help All the looking through the rubble trying to find survivors With 77 police officers died 340 firemen died that day There was 23 battalion chiefs that (8/33)
responded Only four survived These are people that ran up 50 flights of stairs with 70 pounds worth of equipment Not one refused to go in To save the 2,000 people that are trapped above the fires and the towers when they were burning Okay, watch that 60 minutes piece unbelievable You're hearing those people get up to those floors trying to create a stairway trying to help these people get down before they collapsed So 2,000 people trapped above the fires and there was 17,000 people in the World Trade Center and those towers when the first plane hit these guys helped Say 14,000 people get out. I mean some got out right away. So there's a plane hit but you know, holy cow And just watching everything and see you bring it back those memories and those stories I mean, you know, we we do things on September 11 Not like we did this weekend and you had the people these firemen their kids wearing their you know father's Uniform and a lot of them following their father's footsteps just like I (9/33)
follow my dad's footsteps But after September 11 something interesting happened at least to my age group And my friends who lost friends or family members In September 11th that they winded up, you know, marrying their girlfriends a significant other married had kids Guess it's kind of like the baby boom years after the war in 1946 more babies were born that year than any other year is 20% more than 1945 but when you see something like that you live through it you start taking life more seriously And that's for anyone. It's not just a September 11th. It's a few you know, I For me losing my dad was huge. I was young. My dad was you know young he died very very young I let you hear that dies right and you don't have that person to be proud of you to sell you they're proud anymore I mean, it's a big of something. I I've never really dealt with emotionally And for me I took things more seriously Especially when it came to to work ethic I started focusing on my strengths a little bit more (10/33)
not letting them just you know, Okay, let talent waste away or anything like that, but you know just married kids family Hey my take from all this is don't wait for something traumatic to happen to To be the person that you're meant to be Everybody waits and you know, they mess around and have fun and you should have fun and enjoy it But that's the most important thing right enjoying it. There's so much anger out there Of a waddle of a bullshit over people making us shoes that want power, you know, it's just when you look at everything it's It's pretty insane right now. It's a crazy world But don't wait to be the person you're meant to be. I mean one of my favorite quotes is from Mark Twain when he says the two best days of your life for the day that you were born and The day you find out why? That's pretty powerful but for everyone out there listening find out why Cuz every day like September 11th and some of you again I wasn't even September 11th or something else is school shooting (11/33)
or something change life could be very very very short Very short and when you're dying there, you're taking your last few breaths. What are you gonna say? What are you gonna think? You say well, I lived a great life. I did everything everything I wanted to do when I was alive Are you wondering how you're gonna be remembered if this taught us anything guys live your life Live your life. Don't start tomorrow Start right now emotional time Hard transition to get into some questions here, but we will that's the new format tomorrow fantastic interview for you One of your favorite guests definitely gonna provide a really really two really great ideas. He's gonna provide two fantastic ideas. You're gonna love But in this format gets us some of your questions keep sentiment Frank curves of research calm Again not the easiest transition, but I'm gonna try to make it a little bit more fun after An emotional weekend at least for me from someone that's living in New York from someone who knows (12/33)
people that died from You're going through those emotions. It's pretty crazy. So I'm gonna try to transition is something that was fun this weekend Which is sports which is football. So Brendan asks. Hey, you know, I'm Frank who's going to win the Super Bowl Again tough transition, but let's have some fun. Okay, I Will say Tampa Bay Obviously is the favorite every year whoever wins a Super Bowl Everyone thinks that team's gonna win Super Bowl following year and they have most of the people intact and they did look okay They don't look great Everyone says Cowboys played great. They played awesome They got what three four turnovers and still lost but they didn't play good. They look pretty good But I will tell you what's against Tampa Bay right now two things one It's very difficult to win back-to-back Super Bowls haven't happened in a very very long time. Of course. That was with Brady And two and this is much more important is I have a good friend that went to the game and said in (13/33)
Tampa that they ran out of beer and ketchup at halftime They're gonna need their fans to win. They won that Super Bowl in Tampa Bay Stadium last year You better get some beer there. You better get some ketchup. Those are the two most important things beer ketchup. Boom Boom you ran out of halftime more supply issues. I Do like Cleveland as a sleeper I know quarterback issues will see We may feel has to play that good and he did throw away that interception, but they look good They have all the components. I got a great offensive line. They have great offensive weapons. Their defense is very very very good They have everything. I mean if Mayfield just need a little more confidence and be smarter. I think they're gonna be there They got a shot Saints look incredible that could be a sleeper Maybe the Eagles hurts looked amazing I think it was more of a fact me hurts did look amazing and they came out really strong to look great their offense look Great in sync, but they did play against (14/33)
Atlanta Atlanta look horrible. Let's you show up those ears, but the Eagles are first place That's all I care about. They're in first place Awesome. My top pick is the Chiefs. I mean last year You know you say well, you know, he threw some interception He didn't throw a touchdown throw a touchdown because his offensive line was terrible He had two three guys injured and I mean the second they stopped the ball He had two three guys in his face every he was running for his life Now they have one of the best offensive lines. They really shorted up Again Little rusty to come out and then Cleveland is tough Cleveland's like on paper. Cleveland's one of the best teams They're awesome, but I still like the Chiefs this year and of course Tampa Bay, but I'm gonna go with the Chiefs You got something to prove And some guys on defense as well But thanks for the question. And yes, we're allowed to enjoy football awesome happy footballs going on and it just so happened in one of the you know, one (15/33)
of the most emotional weeks So Mario says hey Frank love the podcast I agree with you 90% of the time Do you really I don't think my wife agrees with me that much 90% of the time then he says on politics and COVID. I love the rants Well, I'm writing today about the idea of a trend that I see I live in California very liberal upside-down Politics state political state my kids never touch a schoolroom in 2020. I have a seven and nine year old We have mass mandates everywhere. My kids are finally in school after 18 months But with masks on Regardless of lockdowns and all political BS we deal with in California one thing that never stopped and only got bigger and bigger is club sports My kids play both club soccer And other sports because it's expensive. We practice four times a week never stops regardless of COVID We have tournaments once a month sometimes with more than a thousand kids and he says thousands even the kids and hundreds of teams No masks at all This is just soccer. It's (16/33)
baseball softball, etc It's also not just California as we had time tournaments in San Diego It's East Washington, Texas Las Vegas coming from around the nation for tournaments Just Florida club sports are also big as we look at the moving there It's a sense of freedom or maybe just a political a COVID break. We all look for once we drive into the complex It's like we're back into 2019 My niece received a full 100% scholarship for softball and never played for a high school. Well sports is growing growing and Parents are throwing tons of money into it High school sports is dying as parents and athletes don't want politics or city-state associates with their sports is now my question How do we invest in this trend? We all use an app called team snap, which is used across all club sports, but they're not public I understand that Dick's morning It is a way to play this trend as a surgeon golf fishing camping any other way to feel free to mention But there has to be something out there (17/33)
Some ideas to tap in to this growth market Great question club sports is definitely huge Anyone has parents understands that at that that are athletes and it's very big in the recruiting process for colleges I don't know if you saw the percentages, but it's incredible I mean close to 80% of men and women became college athletes played club sports and You're seeing that a lot of people don't want to deal with the politics That's why I've removed my kid from the school. She's in you know, it's When you're going to a school Hey for me the way I look at it and I'll say this personally, I don't know how everybody else looks at it, but Those teachers that system should be doing the best interest of teaching my kid or in the best interest of my kid and also best interest of the parents and Right now that's not the case They're doing the best interest for themselves for the teachers for what they believe in and that's really fucked up so you could see like a big shift where You know some of (18/33)
the things that they're teaching why they it's not for the benefit the kids No, it's a benefit for themselves. It's a benefit for themselves. So you're seeing a lot of this Just let me get out of the political whatever side you're on. I want to get out of it I just feel that one my kids go to sports and enjoy it and my 13 year old Hey, then he said Talked about Biden and she saw a new story and she's like wow. I hate Biden I hate Biden and I told her I said, you know what don't say that I Said first of all, you shouldn't even be thinking about that right now Anything political at 13. Will you think of politics? Are you 13 holy cow was like in my mid 20s before that I started to care about this stuff 13 how does she have exposure to that? How does she exposure to this? I just all the YouTube channels all the conditioning all this craziness and social media It's like you just got to take them off of everything You know, sometimes some of that stuff is you know could be educational but (19/33)
come on I told I said listen don't don't watch anything. Don't think about anything your kid. Have fun. Go crazy You're in a tough school. She's got homework every day. But you know, I was like don't say that I don't want to hear it. Okay. I'm not gonna like condition her Whatever. She's gonna have her own opinions on different things the way she grows up and how she wants to world and that's okay And I was told you didn't have to hate the other side because I think differently today yes, you have to choose I hate you and you're an asshole and and you're not right no matter what no matter what facts you provide. I mean There's no negotiation. There's no middle ground. It's crazy So I see that Now to get to your question. Listen athletics apparel equipment space is insanely on fire The only thing I worry about is supply chain issues See them grow and grow and I was you know, talking about what everyone's talking about years now Not just months not just in the auto industry But (20/33)
everything but if you're looking at The names and athletics apparel equipment that space holy cow that the earned Lululemon I mean Lululemon had that highest expectations ever blew them out stocks at new highs underarm is doing great Amazing earnings last two quarters out and they report another one that stocks really gonna go Nike earnings weren't that great But that's because they really report a great earnings couple quarters before and it's still five percent off its all-time high Callaway golf just raised two great quarters just raised estimates again, right? So you see in those earnings and again those stock prices are gonna follow And continue to go higher. I don't see that stop at any time soon And we're like a secular uptrend in sports and apparel and golf golf people in one no golf They don't like now, you know They were forced to play it and one of the things you can play that was kind of cold friendly and you could take Two separate carts and you're outdoors and stuff. Now (21/33)
you start playing golf you're in It's hard. I mean, especially if you're an athlete because it's one of the hardest sports. It's just so difficult You got to be perfect and a few sports that you can play where you're great one day And it's like you never even play the next day. It's crazy But the best play on all this I think you mentioned it is dicks sporting goods The corner that they announced probably the best this earning season Just dialed in special dividend saying all almost every department's great in golf and but they sell what Nike Under Armour they sell all this stuff and that is the ultimate play on this because you don't know, you know Nike again They came out. I think the stock sold off a little bit and then you know, it's come back a little bit But you don't know maybe Under Armour drops the ball inventory concerns They did not able to fill up inventory and for the holiday season Which is a possibility for many of these retailers right now to the supply chain issues So (22/33)
when I look at this, yeah, I like dicks sporting goods. Probably the best play not a pure play But you know, I like what you're thinking. I love that. I love when you guys like hey, I'm seeing this How do I play it? That's how you should think And don't let it control your life like it does for me where you're going, you know I went to the mall this week I went to the mall this week because I am going away and going to Dallas on a business trip very important business trip and You know, I'll be back a couple days And I realized that since I lost 25 pounds I don't have a suit so I had to go to the mall and buy a suit and see if they get tailored luckily I found someone that could do it, you know on Saturday and I got on Sunday. I I couldn't get a space anywhere. I mean it was jammed jammed jammed. I mean, this is a place that has Hundreds and hundreds of stores stores. It has a mall and all hundreds of hundred stores everywhere. I Mean you couldn't get a space Going into not even (23/33)
parking a quarter of a mile away It was crazy and people it wasn't just like I want to get some everyone had bags. Everyone was buying stuff I had I never seen it more crowded than it was But you want to find out what stores are doing well who has crowds where they buying stuff Who's advertising the most right? Usually when you're advertising a lot means that you know You're gonna bring in a lot of revenue most likely for that quarter could be a good earnings quarter Seen a company that's dead, you know not used to advertising now you see the commercials everywhere Hey, but pay attention to this stuff it matters it matters. So I love where you're going with this. This is really really cool Marrow great great question. I get a lot of these, you know all the time Just you know what I'm what you're seeing in different markets and how to play it, you know And everyone is part of so if you have kids some of you just go to college Some of you are in different industries. That's how we able (24/33)
to get Understand how the supply chain issues guys. Come on. I was saying listen This is these guys are lying to you. These guys are lying the data right here These are from people in the industry Then you dig even further and then really talk to amazing amazing sources and saying hey to confirm it and it's like man These supply issues. It's a lot worse than you think it is. These guys are like, yeah, it's one two quarter problem No, no way try to buy a car right now. You're not get it for nine months Let you buy like the couple that just came onto the lot I mean it's insane it's insane But the way you get into trends the way you figure out things ahead of time is just by open up your eyes looking around You're paying attention. It's the easiest way to do it What your fan which the neighbors buying new cars Tesla's what's going on? Spending more money remodeling their homes going to Home Depot whatever Lowe's if You pay attention you're gonna know well ahead of everyone CNBC whose jobs (25/33)
who these guys are great and analysts and stuff like that You're not gonna see a lot of new boots on the ground research They're looking at numbers. They're on TV. They have to talk about all the stories not just the stories that they're good at again I had it I was there I was on doing that Fox CNBC You go in there. I had a whole thing of stories I was gonna talk about and did the research and wake up in the morning like nope new agenda. Here's what's the stories today? You're forced about talking about what's good that day or whatever I mean listen so a lot of these trends sneak up on you You don't hear about them on TV, but you know you see them because you're in these fields take advantage of that man That's real time. That's a huge advantage. You have over so many analysts out there So many of them. I'll help you with the numbers, but man you guys keep sending me emails like this Frank Here's a research calm that is absolutely awesome Last question here is from Jake. It's Frank. (26/33)
What is the biggest mistake you see investors make and thank you for all you do Biggest mistake you guys listening to me. That's a big mistake The biggest mistake I don't know The dollar down to one I Listen to the wrong people is a really big deal I like listening to a lot of people, but then I like you know listen to other opinions And then do the day you know just research myself Not doing the homework not really digging in but I think the biggest if I had a name one thing is risk management and I mean let's put this in an example say someone has bought Bitcoin and they bought in the hundreds and They're sitting on you know a million dollars two million dollars. If that's your first experience with investing. Holy cow Good luck because that never happens ever for some of the professionals in history I Gains like that we've seen some of those gains in a crypto intelligence newsletter, which is you know on fire Yeah, crypto take a little bit of hit here, and it's you know all over the (27/33)
place So very very strong and very high right I mean yes, it's come down from 66 But look where it was like a year and a half ago two years ago. I mean come on But how do you tell that person to dial it down a little bit or be smart like people say oh? I'm gonna hold big. I mean do you really want a whole Bitcoin forever? Maybe I mean you're gonna die with it What's the point right you want to make money and be able to spend it on your family and stuff? I guess Yeah, there's got to be a level where The investment doesn't make sense anymore Just has to be not everything's on Microsoft and Amazon forever Hey, maybe some of you You know hold forever or whatever But there has to be some level where you're like hey if it gets to this and then you analyze again And so you still see growth and that trend is still secular still intact But then how do you tell them to buy something and earn 10% interest you know 10% 10% used to be? Impossible now 10% is like an average gain you said tell people (28/33)
10% Like that's all I'm gonna make But they they take on an Excessive amount of risk and Tend to blow up their entire portfolio where it's okay to have a 15 20 25 percent loss even 35 percent loss if You're looking at that money having a 35 percent loss is going to go up to X 3 X. That's fine If that's your expectations, that's fine. If it doesn't happen. Yeah, you know you have stops, and you're out of it I see a lot of people hope their own gold stocks forever forever Yeah, they made a little bit of a move here and there, but come on for 10 years You're looking at the market look where the market with 10 years and look at gold And you got to be diversified But that all goes into risk management because I see so many investors and this isn't just young investors Are you seeing seasoned investors? that Lose all their capital Well the season investors don't lose all their capital. They lose everyone else's capital I mean you're looking at Ackman with Target was dead wrong on that one (29/33)
got wrecked cuz he tried to play it through Derivatives long term capital management that was run by Nobel Prize winning economists now Wall Street traders These are supposed to be the smartest guys in a room. There's a big difference between Nobel Prize Economists and Being an analyst it's huge. It's a difference between Michael Jordan playing basketball and playing baseball It's different just because he's an amazing athlete doesn't mean he's great in everything just cuz you're a doctor doesn't mean you're a doctor at everything Gotta be careful with this shit David Einhorn shorting Tesla since 2018 keep shorting it keep shorting it keep shorting, but being stubborn. I think it is you know not I've been through this that's what I'm telling you a being stubborn just doesn't work He could be stubborn stubborn stubborn and you're pissed off, and he just doesn't work that's one of the biggest things I see because Not having at least a little bit of a discipline You never want to risk all (30/33)
your capital Maybe some of you do a lot of people become billionaires by doing that. That's fine Just understand that make sure that return is worth the risk you're taking but remember when you lose everything You're Probably losing everything maybe not the stock goes down But the whole market goes down and maybe you had options or whatever you put you know time value on it Which is you know difficult you could be right on your thesis, but just wrong on the timing And if you're playing it through options, you're dead you lose everything short of the wrong stock You saw that with GameStop at AMC how many you know so-called smart people got wrecked So you want to always protect yourself because when you see that market you know market coming down That's the time you want to buy I mean if you got wrecked during Covid and you had you know options or just whatever now you lost all your money at a time where was one of the greatest Buying opportunity we said it's gonna be one of the greatest (31/33)
buying opportunity to all money flooding into the market You know and we got back in a lot of our stocks did very very very well If you want to be buying when the market crashes if you're getting wrecked because you have no discipline and no stops or anything You know you should be buying at a time when a lot of people do the opposite You know they sell when stocks get crushed and they buy as they go higher even though you know Buying stocks that go higher seems to be a great strategy these days with growth depending on which stocks Do you buy that's probably the biggest mistake that I see all right guys continue sending your questions for this segment new format Franker's research comm Great interview coming up tomorrow someone who is I would say in the top three when it comes to performance and dollar stock club where If you're not familiar dollar stock we take one pick from our guests each week write it up include a buy up to price a stop Basically getting an amazing idea from some (32/33)
of the best analysts in the world that I interview for a dollar a week Doesn't get better than that trust me. I've been this industry for 30 years You're not gonna get better than that and these are great guys But this person's gonna some great ideas with past 12 months so definitely definitely listen tomorrow's interview And that's it for me really appreciate all the support And I'll see you guys tomorrow take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (33/33)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The real story behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's February 15th. I'm Frank Curzio. This is the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. A little bit under the weather. Don't worry. It's not COVID. Got all the free tests they send you. Like four of them. Took one already. I'm okay. Six for most of the weekend. Very, very busy this week. My oldest daughter turned 14. That was on the 12th. So that was on Saturday. Then my mom turned 79 the next day on the 13th. So happy birthday to both. Then on 14th, you have Valentine's Day. So having two daughters, my wife, my mom, I mean all happy stuff, but I probably spent more money in the past few days than what most people wagered on the Super Bowl. So if you do see some of those offers from my (1/33)
newsletter this week, you know why. But everything happens all at once, and it's crazy. But speaking of the Super Bowl, man, I'm sorry. I got this one right. I'm usually wrong. More than 80% of the time, I'm usually wrong. This one, I actually got right. Cincy covered with the points all because somebody missed an extra point. Remember, I want everybody to bet against me. I actually had Cincy to win the game, but took them with the points, and that spread was four. It went from four and a half to four right before the game, and they went up winning by three. So they covered. Again, that Muffet extra point was really, really big. But how good is Vegas on that spread? I mean, they nailed it, right? That's the spread. That's it. All the numbers, analytics. Those of you who think that you could beat the system, I mean, that spread was absolutely perfect. Absolutely perfect. Also went two for three in my prop bets. So Jeffson, which is the wide receiver for the Rams, he didn't score the (2/33)
first CD. But Stafford threw two interceptions, like I predicted, and Jesse Bates did have an interception. Probably won some money on that. But looking at the game, I mean, it was a good game, but the ending was kind of like, eh. And it just felt like Cincy should have won. I mean, shutting down the run game, it just felt like they should have won that game. In the first fourth down, they went on that opener series absolutely terrible. He gave the Rams momentum right off the bat, and he was like 14-3. 13-3 because they missed an extra point. Fourth their way back, second half came out on fire. But you look at the last series of the game, where it's third and one from the 50, and you hand the ball off, and Mixon looked like he was going to get the first down, but he just danced around, and they nailed him before he got the first down. So now it's fourth and one. So what do you do? You go freaking shotgun. You need a half a yard, and you're five yards behind the scrimmage to just get (3/33)
one yard. And you have nobody in the backfield. Now remember, the fourth quarter, the Rams started breaking through every single play, every single possession in the second half. They were breaking through, breaking through, breaking through. Not in the second half, but in the fourth quarter. So now you put no help there, and you take the snap, and what happens? You wind up getting sacked, which if you just put one guy to help out, the chaser's wide open on that play. It would have been, I don't know, game over, but they would have scored a touchdown. It was wide open. And Ramsey fell into play again. So I just didn't like that play call. What happened to quarterback sneaks? You need a half a yard quarterback sneak? So the Rams did it on fourth and one, and they handed it off to Cooper Cuff, which by the way, another thing with the coaching with the Bengals, Odell Beckham was having an amazing game. He was on fire. Confidence probably would have been an MVP if I had to guess. And then (4/33)
he went out. He got hurt. You have one guy, right? Your running game is terrible for the Rams. You have one guy, which is Cooper Cuff. How does he score? Not even score the last touchdown, but get four catches on the last drive? I mean, imagine if Belichick was the coach, there's no way he catches one pass in that drive. I mean, you can't really... Outside of Jefferson, you can't even name another wide receiver on that team. So I think Cincinnati had them. They had the shot to win. It's just, I didn't like the play call at the end, but it was a good game. Congratulations to the Rams. My apologies, because usually I'm wrong on this and get this right, but this one, yes, we actually won, which is sad, because it defeats the whole purpose of the whole segment, because I'm always wrong on this. But that four points, I thought it was a lock, especially in the first quarter, 14-3 or 13-3. Keeps saying 14. They missed the extra point and fumbled that. But I thought we were on our way to (5/33)
another loss, which would have been a win for you guys. And I'd rather all the time that you guys... I'd rather be wrong and have you make money than be right and you don't make money. Seriously, that's what I'd rather have. My apologies. Congratulations to the Rams. Great Super Bowl. Now, getting to the markets, getting lots of questions. Get lots of questions on Canada, too. Man, it's crazy, man. Canada's nuts. I have so many friends in Canada, so many good friends in Canada. I love speaking at conferences. Holy shit, is it crazy there? Absolutely nuts. Convoys and stuff like that. Also getting questions on Russia and the Ukraine, which is really driving the markets, especially over the past four or five trading days. We're looking at today when the market's going up because they say Russia is backing down, not going to invade Ukraine. And that's a story. Will they invade Ukraine? If so, it's going to probably result in oil prices going higher, at least in the short term, stocks (6/33)
going lower due to uncertainty. Since Biden said that if Russia invades Ukraine, there's going to be severe costs, right? Severe costs and insinuating that many people thought that US might go to war with Russia. Again, the general public thought that because they had to come out two days ago and say, it doesn't mean we're going to war with them or doing anything crazy. It's just severe costs. Sanctions and stuff like that. They actually had to come out and say that. They said that because there was such misinterpretation that people were like, why are we messing with Russia here? And I've been doing a lot of homework on this because the media, we all know they have an agenda. They all get together. They all say the same exact things. That's the media. We've seen that through COVID. We've seen it the past two years ridiculously, even less less lecture. I love when you're reading stories and they're saying, well, we have no idea why Putin is doing this. Why is it being asked? Why is it (7/33)
going to invade Ukraine? They say that Russia is this terrible nation we need to fear. Now, look, I'm going to do something that's absolutely crazy right now. It's something the media is never going to do, something that can get me loads of trouble. Something that can get me kicked off of a lot of media platforms, but I'm going to do it anyway. You know what that is? I'm going to tell you the truth. Russia has every right to invade Ukraine and wipe it off the face of the earth. And if that happens, Ukraine will deserve it. Hear me out. Nobody's saying this in the media, again, because they're not allowed to. You work for whatever company. You have to support their agenda. I think people listen because there's no bullshit podcast. I'm going to tell you exactly how it is, just like I told you exactly how it was with COVID and we've seen all this shit. Get masks don't really work. The vaccines. Not anti-vaccine or anything, as you guys know, but a lot of the stories are bringing up with (8/33)
people getting pissed are turning out to be very, very true. And more and more doctors are finally being allowed to say stuff, even with Wuhan and China and stuff like that, finally, if you said they got kicked off platforms. But anyway, let's get to Russia and Ukraine, because first, Ukraine, if you're looking at them as a nation, they're probably the most corrupt nation out there. One of them. If you'll get every presidential election since 1991, to start presidential elections, it's been corrupt. The first president elected, that guy ended up resigning. The second president got elected in 2004, only because the election was rigged. So in 2010, the next president took office and now it's until 2014 and that's when, and I'm going to bring up some names here, Proshenko came in to power and it was a coup. And that's how he became president. Now Proshenko became president, he's pro Europe, pro democracy, so he says, right, so he said, which is great for the world. So Europe was happy (9/33)
about this and they support him and so did the US, where President Obama signed a pact to help Ukraine battle corruption and it was a non-lethal military assistance agreement. Non-lethal, right? Because we want to provide weapons and stuff, right, because it's direct conflict with Russia. President Obama did a good job, right? He said, you know what, you know what I'm going to do for you, Ukraine, that you guys want to end the corruption and poverty and stuff. He's like, I'm going to do something special. I'm going to send my vice president, Joe Biden, over to you, okay? I'm going to call him the chief envoy. I'm going to send them to you guys and he's going to work with you, work everything out. I know I ran against him. I know I said don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up. That's what Obama said, but he's not going to fuck this up, I promise. He's going to go there, it's going to be fun. And of course, that's what we found out, Hunter Biden's getting paid a million (10/33)
dollars to sit on the board of Ukrainian natural resource company, which was run by the natural resource minister of Ukraine, even though he has no experience in the natural resource industry. I don't know why he got that job. So when we're looking at Biden, now his president is very, very familiar with the Ukraine, very attached to Ukraine. It's in his best interest to help them out. This is not an attack on Biden or the Democrats and just reporting facts, because this gets a lot better. So those of you who love your Republicans, well, in 2017, Trump was president. He decided to approve an arms sale to Ukraine. He said, here's the weapons, hundreds of millions of dollars worth. Here you go, this military aid to Ukraine to help fight Russia in case of invasion. I mean, think about that for a minute. Imagine if China or North Korea provided military aid to Canada and Mexico sold them arms. I mean, how would we feel in the US? But even more important, you have to love the irony here, (11/33)
since the Democrats' ultimate agenda to remove Trump from office was to create this whole fake narrative about how Russia helped him win the election. Not only is the story 100% not true, and I think Hillary, I don't know, in today's times, now you get caught on camera doing shit and you still don't get in trouble, but Hillary is probably a lot of...hacking the server of the White House and having proof of that? Good luck. Good luck. But why would Russia support Trump, who just armed Russia's greatest enemy with weapons? Right? I mean, he never asked that question. He didn't care. They just went with the agenda. They reported this shit that was 100% fake, still haven't apologized, and we all believe the BS. Now, through Proshenko's presidency, he promised a lot of things like every politician does and failed to deliver. Again, like every politician does. So in 2019, he lost his presidency to Zelensky, the current president. This is a comedian. He's an actor. No political experience. (12/33)
Easily won. That's what happens when you have charisma, right? Getting 70% of the vote. He campaigned against poverty, corruption. Ukraine has been corrupt forever, 30 years, almost every single election, and it's kind of similar to the Democrats' campaign to help all poor people in major cities, and 40 years have passed and these people are poorer than ever. And they're still going to vote Democrat forever, which is kind of interesting. But Zelensky, his party also won the majority of parliament seats, and that was a big deal. So for the first time since Ukraine's independence, the president had a majority party in parliament, meaning that this guy could do whatever the fuck he wants. And that's exactly what he did. He started arresting pro-Moscow businessmen, seized the assets of the biggest backers to the opposition party, arrested anyone that disagreed with his agenda, shut down three pro-Russia TV channels alleging that they're spreading misinformation, shut down radio stations. (13/33)
So Ukraine is basically a dictatorship, right? It's not a pro-democratic nation. Now here's Russia. This powerful nation, superpower with massive resources. Russia doesn't really bother anyone. I mean, Russia is not a threat to the US. It's not like Americans would be in danger of going to major cities in Russia. It's not like North Korea. It's not some crazy nation looking to take over the world. If North Korea had the technology, they'd bomb everybody, but they don't have the technology. Not like China who murdered 6 million people creating coronavirus in a lab, but they still will not let anyone go into Wuhan and inspect anything. Nope, you're not allowed to be here. Nope, no way, no way, right? Or China, how they steal all of our technology, lie about climate change, where they're using more coal than ever. Take a look at Peabody and arch resources results. They just reported, look at those results. They're generating more free cash flow than their market caps of the company. (14/33)
That's how much... What happened to coal? It's supposed to disappear. They're producing it like crazy and selling it to China. Why is China doing that? Because they're going to be a powerhouse. They're bullshitting about this climate change and all this crap. Look at us. We increase our dependency on foreign natural resources because we refuse to drill in our own backyard. We have new resources, wind, solar to pick up that slack. That's why you've seen energy prices go crazy. China's coal like... Hey, they run the world. You have the energy, energy runs the world. Good for them. That's what they're doing. Not only that, China... Again, Russia is not like China, where China has every one of our politicians, major corporations on their payroll. Go do your research. It's not hard to find. This isn't a conspiracy theory. Just look. It's why in the US we can never say anything bad about China. We're a free nation. We cannot say... We cannot say... You got kicked off social media for saying (15/33)
that China started the coronavirus in a lab in Wuhan, which we know is fact. You get kicked off social media for that. You know what our response is when we're mad at China? You know what our politicians do? We're going to boycott the Olympics. Boycott the Olympics. You want to go there anyway. Anybody watching the Olympics said, oh, nobody care? Sad, but nobody really cares. They're going to make it all nice and pretty right now. But in the background, man, the cold productions... Even France said we have to produce more coal. We can't afford it with natural gas to fund electricity. We can't do it. You can't say anything bad about China. You're not allowed to, ever. But Russia, Russia is not some crazy enemy. They should be more pissed at us than anything. We crave fake stories about Putin and their government rigged our elections and for three years trashing these guys when this story is 100% fake. They have every reason to despise us. Now Putin made it very clear to the Ukraine. He (16/33)
said, look, you're a free country. We'll leave you alone. Just don't do two things. Don't touch Crimea and don't join NATO. If you do, we're going to blow you off the map. Just don't do that. And what did this idiot do? Exactly the opposite. Trying to join NATO and they want to take over Crimea. Crimea is a key property. It gives Moscow access to naval bases. It's home to the Black Sea fleet. But more importantly, when you're looking at the Black Sea, it's a major warm water, deep water port. Meaning you could ship goods year round, very, very important, doesn't freeze, and massive ships can pass through, which allows Russia to ship its natural resources and other goods between Europe and Central Asia to the biggest markets in the world outside of the US. The big deal. And Russia took this over because they can and it made sense to them. They know nobody could really get involved or stop them like Europe or the US. And they did it. Annexed. The people were pissed about it. But hey, (17/33)
they had the power to do it and they did it, which is not our problem. Not our problem. But NATO, getting to NATO, the reason why they want to join NATO, and NATO is great. So NATO is not like the UN. The UN is designed for peace. NATO is designed for war, to fight war. It's a collective defense, meaning if someone attacks a member of NATO, it attacks all the members of NATO. Meaning if Ukraine was accepted into NATO and then Russia invaded, it would be like declaring war on the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, almost all European countries who are in NATO. That's why Ukraine wants to become a member of NATO, which by the way, takes 20 years to complete the plan to get in. Where Ukraine only filed in 2008 and they have special agreements like we're partnering with NATO and they call it different. They're not in NATO and they'll never be accepted into NATO because they're a dictatorship now and it's a corrupt nation. They're never going to be accepted into NATO. But they're trying to (18/33)
and trying to smooth it all because they want that power. So as Ukraine, Ukraine, they continue to poke the bear, which is Russia, where Putin said, he said outright, he's saying it in speeches everywhere because you join NATO, it's a direct threat to us. If you do, we're going to take over your country. And honestly, I see his point. Ukraine joining NATO is like Canada and Mexico joining a special alliance with North Korea and China. Would we allow that? And by doing so, Mexico and Canada would give our greatest enemies access to our borders. I don't even know what's going on there. So the US is a powerful nation. We'd do the same exact thing Russia's doing right now. We'd literally invade Canada and Mexico probably at the same time if they signed such an agreement. That brings us to the US. How will we involve in this mess? Why do we care? And we're really willing to support Ukraine, this corrupt dictatorship who's picking a fight with a superpower that really doesn't want to go to (19/33)
war with them. If they did, they would have took them over in 2004. And since 2013, Russia has been saying this, since 2013, look, you're independent, have your own country, don't go into NATO, and don't touch Crimea. Simple. Since 2013, go back. But we're going to have major conflicts with Russia over this? Again, who's no threat to us like China, North Korea want to take over the world. And again, have all of our politicians, major corporations on payroll, like Coca-Cola won't say anything bad, none of these companies, the NBA won't say any bad, LeBron James doesn't say anything bad about China, no, no, no, it's all about money. It's the biggest growth market in the world. China was the biggest growth market in the world, same thing. We'd see our corporations defending them as well, but they're not, unless you're into resources and stuff like that. If we're really going to get into a fight with Russia, it should be because we want to take over the natural resources and increase our (20/33)
world dominance, not because some garbage corrupt country that doesn't support our values and freedoms, who has a comedian as president, who announced on Sunday or Monday morning, the date that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, and then said, no, no, no, I was just joking, which significantly moved the markets. You're just joking about war, hundreds of thousands of people, there's impacts and markets across the world. Oh, I was just being sarcastic. Again, comedian background. But we're really going to get involved just because Ukraine, this corrupt nation, wants to become more powerful? Anyway, war is up to Ukraine. If they don't join NATO or stop talking about joining NATO, which again, it's never going to happen anyway, they'll never get accepted into NATO, and leave Crimea as is, then Russia won't invade, leave them alone. They said that clear as day. Either way, as a US investor with plans on holding stocks in the long term, it's just a non-event. I said the same thing about (21/33)
tariffs. I know you think it's crazy and it moves the markets. As a trader, if you see this invasion, oil will go higher. Again, it doesn't seem likely after today's news, when we hear that they're backing up, moving troops, we'll see. That's today, could change later on, doing this mid-afternoon. Stocks will fall initially due to uncertainty, but it'll be short-lived. It's just using the pullback to buy some of your favorite names. A lot of these names are turned down tremendously already. So anyway, that's the truth. If you want to hear the truth, that's the truth. Do some research on it, do it from non-biased sites and go out there and you'll see and you'll know why Putin wants to invade Ukraine. You'll see the corruption. Go back and look at the history in Ukraine, for every presidency, every one. It's like marked by some kind of coup or some kind of just fake election, the corruption, the promises, and they have all this power. It's scary when you have all that power and you can (22/33)
do whatever you want. That's what they're trying to do. Being run by a comedian who has no political experience of how to talk to people or anything, it's pretty crazy. And while you're shutting down the media and everything else, you're shutting down those outlets because people are starting to change. You're saying, look, we don't want to go to war. Leave Russia alone. They're leaving us alone. Leave us alone. And you can't blame Russia. Join NATO, you're going to have Europe and the US controlling right next to your border. Why would Russia want that if they can control it? They can control it. They can because no one's going to do anything if they invade. We could talk a big game and sanctions and all this garbage, but the bottom line, they funnel all their energy, all their resources to Europe. Europe cannot fuck with Russia ever, ever, ever. Russia is much, much more powerful. They shut that off. You saw that when they shut off the Ukraine. They shut off, forget it. I mean, they (23/33)
have that new pipeline they just built. It goes under the Baltic Sea that goes right to Germany. When you have natural resources, you are extremely powerful as a nation. So Russia has, US has. That's why Japan's economy is not doing that well. They don't have those natural resources. Not a coincidence that those are the most powerful nations in the world. But this whole thing about how Russia is the enemy and why are we involved in this? Why is the US involved? Well, we know why they're involved in this, right? I mean, Biden has huge, huge ties to this, but come on, this is crazy. This has nothing to do with us. Get out of it. We're really going to fight. Instead of worrying about our borders here, our cities where crime is through the roof and folks are not making our country better, we're fighting this corrupt nation's war for them and picking a fight with a superpower? Are you out of your mind? And what the hell is wrong with us? What's going on? Anyway, I don't see this happening, (24/33)
even if it does. It's going to be short-lived, see a little disruption in the markets. But again, I use it as a buying opportunity. If you're a long-term investor, I wouldn't worry about this much. Just like I said about tariffs where tens of billions of stories are written about China and tariffs are crazy and these wars, border, whatever, trade wars with China and all of it was garbage and stock market went up and up and up and up and up and kept going up, right, because China has no choice. China cannot do anything. We purchased those goods. We could purchase those goods from anywhere we want. Yes, we'd pay more to go to other places in Asia, but China needs us. We have the money. China needs us. They're not going to sell treasuries. They're not going to do anything crazy. They can't. They need us. So they could bark and talk a big game as much as they want, but China wasn't doing anything. They have no choice. They had to listen to us. Of course, you're going to bark and make a lot (25/33)
of noise and that's what you want to do and show power, but at the end of the day, they couldn't do anything. It's like, yeah, we really can't do anything if Russia decides to invade Ukraine. We can't. And if it happens, it happens, but if you're holding your stocks, you plan to hold them longer than nine months, 12 months, which a lot of stocks in our portfolio, then you might see a little bit of a decline, but don't go crazy. Actually, you might be able to use that opportunity to buy some of your favorite names at a cheaper price. So I want to thank all of you since this is probably my last podcast that you'll see on iTunes or YouTube for telling the truth since big tech hates when you tell the truth on their platforms, but position yourselves accordingly. So guys, I'm running a special promotion for Moneyflow Trader. Why am I doing that? I'm not doing that because I spent a lot of money on Valentine's Day parties. I was only kidding about that. It's because we're getting a lot of (26/33)
questions on it because it's more volatile in the market than ever. People want to know how to play this and this is why I provide this newsletter. Granted, it was a little bit early. I started this three years ago. I didn't expect the government to go crazy and inject $19 trillion into the marketplace and tax reforms would get passed so quick where 2017-18 resulted in an explosion in earnings for these companies. But we knew that the market's not going to go up forever, 12 straight years for the NASDAQ and we're seeing this crazy volatility right now. So I pride this off of you in December saying that now's the time to protect yourselves. There's a big fundamental change in the market. We're going to see more volatility than ever since the credit crisis. Now the Fed is in full tightening mode and they have no choice. I love when people say the Fed's not going to raise more than three, four times. They don't have a choice. You got to take money out of the system. You see the PPI number (27/33)
today? Record high. CPI. I mean that's a record high, all time high. If you use the same formula you used back in the 80s, there's no comparison. Of course, we made so many revisions to try to make that number in the CPI stay as low as possible but 7.5%, remember that 2% benchmark that we had? We'll start raising rates once it hits 2%, 7.5%. It's going higher still, right? 12 months ago now, it's 12 months ago. You've been saying that it's transitory. Obviously you took that away in November and said, okay, it's not transitory. We get it. But we're definitely getting a 50 basis rate hike. And we're probably going to get two of those in a row and maybe that's factored in. But the Fed, it's not like they're not going to do it. I love when people say, well, the Fed, they're not going to do it. They have to do it. I mean, prices are out of control. Supply chain issues still exist. All of a sudden they came back seeing more demand. But in the middle of all this, what does it do? It creates (28/33)
massive volatility. So Moneyflow Trader, and this is Ginnia, Terranova, just booked 165% gain in one of our positions that tanked after earnings and she did this by buying long dated puts, which is a super easy strategy you could use in typical online accounts. Bets against stocks over a 12 month timeframe where if you see a stock over that period, move lower by 15, 20%, you're going to make a pretty big score on it. And we've seen companies like Facebook and PayPal, two massive companies, fall by these amounts in a day. That's how crazy this market is right now. But this is a way to protect your portfolio. There's times when we all in, go aggressive. We've done a great job of that. We're leading up to COVID, pulling chips off the table, going back in a couple months later, but it's been a bull market, low interest rates, money flowing into the system, the Fed buying bonds, a perfect environment to take as much leverage as you possibly can, take on risk, risk access surged, those days (29/33)
are over. Now you got to protect your portfolio. So I created this product for this type of market, granted, again, created a little bit early, thinking that we wouldn't see those massive tax cuts that Trump passed. And the government inject $19 trillion into the system, which now has to be removed. It's actually not funny, but our government has to take some money out of the system. That's why you see a lot of companies get smoked, especially those without earnings, those trading at the same valuations, and they're still trading at the same valuations, there's a lot of risk to them. But just having one of these companies for 40%, 50%, which we saw this in most small caps from November through January, you could easily make 3X to 10X on just one of these positions, enough to be worth more than your entire portfolio. But buying puts, guys, real quick, it's not shorting, I'm not telling you to short stocks, you don't have unlimited risk, a stock can go to infinity. And in today's day and (30/33)
age, we have a Ukraine president who's a comedian that just told us he was only kidding about war, that moved oil in the markets tremendously, so you can get crushed shorting at the wrong time, especially a meme stock, where all of a sudden, Robinhood went to 80 before it is, where is it, 15, over a quick period, and it'll blow out of the position and you get just massive short covering and that stock keeps rising, you get murdered. This isn't that. You only lose the amount of money you put into the trade. It's the perfect strategy for the perfect market where conditions will be like this at least for the next 18 months during which the Fed is tightening, stop buying bonds, and you need to protect yourself. So if you're on an email list, you're going to email with that special offer, it's the last time you're going to see that special price we offer in December, you'll get it now because we're getting lots of inquiries about becoming a member of Moneyflow Trader, of course, now that (31/33)
the market is down and I see it in people who are nervous now, I get it. My job is not just to give you stock recommendations that you're going to make money on, but I realized over my 30-year career, when you protect investors, then they become a subscriber for life because there's times you'll be aggressive, markets usually go up and down, I know we're used to seeing a market go up a long time, especially for new investors that start in 2010, 11, 12, 13, whatever, I get it. You're used to bull markets and this is so easy, it's not like that. Especially when you're taking the Fed and the money out of the system, you're taking the punch bowl away, it's much, much, much more difficult to make money in this market, it's a stock picker's market, it's dangerous, there's a lot of stocks that are going to see 30, 40% declines from here and you need just one of those to make a massive score. And you need it already just locked in 165% gain and this is by buying puts on a cloud company or data (32/33)
analytic company that just got crushed. So if you think there's stocks out there that could get crushed, this is a great newsletter for you, if not, no worries, but a lot of you on our email list, if you're not, you can sign up to our email list at curzioresearch.com and we'll be offering that for the rest of this week and then that would be it. We're going to close that special price to you. So if you're interested, okay, if not, no worries. But guys, that's it for me. I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of questions and comments on this podcast, so keep them coming, frankcurzioresearch.com. Love you guys, really appreciate all the support. Thank you, because downloads are really, really surging. I guess a lot of you guys talk about the podcast, record downloads, continues to hit new records, really, really exciting stuff, so I just want to say I really, really appreciate that. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (33/33)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Everyone will know the metaverse in 6 months.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there into the July 12th Thank you. It's the wall Street unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Just came back from the meta expo in Vegas just five days Literally like just came back one in the morning yesterday probably here a little bit my voice Amazing amazing conference Several of my investors show up glad they did a chance to meet them in person share my vision with them There's a lot of fun a lot of companies They shouldn't have had it at the Consumer Electronics Show where the Consumer Electronics Show is which is The conference center because it was really big these guys from the Netherlands probably better a casino because it looked like it was There was not a lot of people there because it was so spread out in (1/34)
that man The place is so big four million plus square feet obviously use a small portion of that But the companies in attendance were just incredible the people I met incredible in my keynote presentation Which is on Saturday I talked about How the game changer in this industry came in October And that's when Facebook announced it would change its name to meta you could say well We had all this books that we read and ready player one and Facebook horizons and incorporating everything Mostly a virtual platform and all this stuff the central ain't coming out in 2020. That wasn't it the game changer Was in Facebook changes name? Now that's a big story on its own You're looking at a trillion dollar market cap company when the largest at the time One of the companies that own the internet next to Google Amazon Apple Microsoft I mean they're sitting the living room close to three billion people over 35% of the world's population So now this Facebook know what these three billion people want (2/34)
since These users actually post their entire lives and social media accounts but more importantly Facebook's algos they can predict what the users will want in the future based on tracking them and everything They love to post and say and do so when Facebook changes name to meta and its entire business model And is the business generated a hundred and fifteen billion dollars in revenue last year Close to 50 cent annualized growth over the past four years and still growing by the way This is a company to generate 85 billion in 2020 and 115 billion in 2021 So it's not like we're seeing a massive slowdown different technology, which is forcing this transition like we're seeing maybe with Netflix who's now going in well say all in on an ad model to help grow sales as Streaming is slowing, but I've never seen a company do anything close to this significant. It's unprecedented To change that quickly But make no mistake this was not Zuckerberg or its management team saying hey, you know what (3/34)
I have a feeling This is gonna be big no way This is a calculated move based on data that tracks three of the five billion people who are on the internet Now why was this the news? Why was this the game changer because once Facebook made this announcement? Everybody started paying attention, especially the most important people Which is major investment banks sell side research These firms over the next two three months started covering the metaverse and they weren't like hey, this is pretty cool Let's get Goldman Sachs wrote a 29 page report Highlighting how the metaverse could be a 12 trillion dollar trend Morgan Stanley a 30 page report a 10 trillion dollar trend Citigroup a hundred and eighty seven page report saying this could be a 13 trillion dollar trend Jeffries Interviewed some of the top people in the industry. These are detailed reports. You have to understand. This isn't just like a one or two page report and These reports are going to their entire client base, which is (4/34)
filled with multi-millionaires billionaires And these firms have trillions an asset of the management and they're telling you get prepared right now So for me you guys listen to this podcast, you know, if I Wall Street research religiously over my career I was in that world and it's over 30 years Two things that stood out about these reports, which I read every word all of them One were how detailed they were This wasn't just like hey, let me put when they say 13 trillion dollars Wall Street firms They did not like what you hear in the media what you might read someplace where? They're like, I think this is gonna be a huge industry. They calculate and put numbers behind it and It was very detailed. They have to model. They can't just take a number out of thin air and say here you go This is where it's gonna be. That's how they get their targets from again. You could disagree with the targets or whatever the predictions whatever They were highlighting how many hours there's market (5/34)
Stanley broke it down by how many hours People spend on the internet and times that by how much The metaverse could capture over the next five years seven years Then you had how much digital market share that they can capture That's How Goldman and city model it out, but it was very detailed doing interviews with top people the industry It was crazy So you're looking at the details, but more importantly it was the actual Prediction the total addressable market predictions of how big these firms think there would be by 23rd net now Let me put this perspective because we throw around trillions like nothing trillions all the time. It's it's not a big word anymore Yeah, it's okay. It was trillion dollar industry here and there and you know what was it? Bitcoin and crypto was two trillion less than a trillion dollars You have 11 trillion dollars thrown into this market which seen inflation right through the roof. We know why It's amazing at Vegas go to Vegas. Holy shit As soon as I went (6/34)
there I got there at one o'clock check-in was three So I got there Thursday, and then I wanted to go set up the booth Because We had a whole media booth so I said alright Let me see if I could check in early instead of going straight to the convention center and the very first thing They're like hey. How you doing by the way. There's gonna be I think it was a $20 fee for checking in early 20 feet the room is ready right the rooms ready on Thursday, so it's not like it's Friday Saturday Sunday He had $20 fee I said oh, that's surprised then they charged me another $180 for resort fees Which I did not see anywhere so when you're using sites now if using Expedia using price line It used to be that that was the full amount. This is the full amount. They're charging you now you're going there It was an extra $180. I had to pay so you're out just fees fees fee I mean the inflation there is this incredibly I mean you're spending so much money It's insane so much money to where was I paid $25 (7/34)
for a drink one night $25 for a drink if you're you're lucky if you're paying less than $10 for a beer It's insane so trillions we all know trillions right so the second part is proposed a total dress on mark these guys talking trillions Let's put that in perspective If you'll get an AI Expect to be a 1.5 trillion dollar industry cloud 1.5 trillion dollar industry 5g 1.6 trillion dollars you're familiar with all those Gaming 500 billion dollar industry EVs 800 billion dollar industry. This is all by 2030 It's a rough estimate of a bunch of predictions Or an average Do you come on all of those trends? That's six trillion combined These are mega trends which we all know Highlight a lot of these things we're gonna come electronic show Maybe you invested in these trends and invested early Okay so combined six trillion dollars yet the metaverse these guys are expected to be a ten Trillion dollar trend again, that's average of almost all the reports. I read it's crazy when you think about it (8/34)
I mean you guys are familiar with AI cloud EVs gaming of course 5g Ten trillion dollars more than these incredible innovative revolutionary trends combined but but Predictions are just predictions suppose have millions of EVs on the road by now She's addicted by 4gm most of major auto manufacturers three years ago 3d TVs are supposed to be big so have drones everywhere by now delivering anything We want right to our doorstep supposed to have all this stuff so predictions are predictions So as an analyst that read probably ten thousand plus sell-side reports over my career I Take predictions with green soft because most of them a BS, but what I do take seriously Is the money When people are not just predicting something and saying oh I expect this to be this or that it's when they're actually investing in it and putting investment capital behind it and this year 2022 only halfway through Over a hundred and twenty billion has already flowed in to the metaverse a hundred and twenty (9/34)
billion already I want you to think about that and this money is coming from lots of big players Tech leaders like Google Facebook Microsoft Amazon Ancient Horace was one of the biggest most deceased venture capital firms in the world They just raised four and a half billion dollars to invest in web3 metaverse and FT companies in a blink of an eye in a blink of an eye This massive amount of money flowing into the metaverse right now in the first six months I mean really need to think about it because what are we seeing we're in a recession We're not used to seeing money like this flow and you're looking at deals look at IPOs quickly shelf Look at SPACs gone Company's trying to raise funding almost impossible unless unless You have a company That's focused on a web 3 metaverse NFTs You do not see this during these types of markets when we're whatever you could say we're in a session Not a recession pretty close to a session the markets getting crushed home price start to come down now (10/34)
Interest rates are going up harder access to capital You don't see this you usually see a total freeze and everything across the board and you're not seeing it that people have money are Going to invest and they're investing right now into this trend Now why are they doing it now? Why aren't they waiting a little bit? It's because the metaverse is here Right now it's not gonna take place a couple of years from now So how I get position myself for three years four years five years My interview over 50 of the presenters at the meta Expo which you're gonna have total access to all that amazing content How do you entrepreneurs developers influence company that are building our own metaverse? And I extend where do you see the metaverse in a couple of years? And most I'm like well, it's gonna take a couple years get adopted and connect all these things and everything around it But it's gonna take a couple of years, but we're positioned right now so you still think When it comes to mainstream (11/34)
where people are not just talking about but actually in the metaverse and buying stuff. That's their take That's their take Based on my research. It's someone has a pretty good track record of getting people into revolution tech trends Before the entire world knows about them the adoption into the metaverse It's gonna take like six months Now I'm talking about total mainstream everybody's in it but in six months from now, it's going to be the conversation It's gonna be the topics gonna be on CNBC every single day. It's gonna be talked about like Bitcoin It's going to be everywhere. I Mean, I've never seen this amount of capital flow into a brand new industry this quickly. And again, we're talking about In conditions where the economy shrinking We're in their session people are tightening their budgets But even when I went to the CES this year, I'm gonna be going for pretty sure it's like ten years now Forty percent of the companies canceled late because Omicron they were worried and (12/34)
again, it was tough to fly and it's international conference Look at four thousand companies usually attend there may have been like eight hundred to a thousand there Which is much much smaller sounds like a lot but it's much much smaller because they didn't have time to Reduce the space and put them in one area. So there's you know empty spots everywhere Well, usually there's just you can't even walk in some of these things When it's fully packed and all the companies are there But the companies that were in attendance companies I went to go see and this was in January They incorporated the metaverse into their presentations. So it's not just gaming It's not just all these people with gaming are gonna have fun. This is the entry It's the easy way to see it where all these people are gonna play. We're used to fortnight roblox minecraft Oculus the massive communities they have The metaverse gonna make them even better That's just right now It's not just this wonderful game that you (13/34)
know, older people are gonna try to play. No, it's not that We'll be going crazy investing and doing everything the metaverse if it's just gaming It's not gaming is a 500 billion dollar industry Which is 5% of the 10 trillion dollar market or total dress of market most worst Wall Street firms are Predicting the metaverse is gonna be it's a small percentage. It's gonna be huge for retailers Which retail this industry is all about data analytics because it's very difficult to predict Especially when it comes to inventory which we're seeing right now retailers. It's all Data driven and when you look at the data Which these guys do the amount of people who experience the metaverse so far that been the metaverse 80% of them have purchased something already Why do you think every retailer every every retailer is? Going all in on this they're either in it or talking about our hiring developers right now. Are they gonna be left behind? Look at social what social experience connectivity We all (14/34)
need where we we saw it during kovat right we all need to be closer to each other And talk to each other be interactive with each other more engaging That's what the metaverse is more engaged personal a better way for people to connect You're gonna entertainment travel Education training employees all these companies are starting to incorporate the metaverse right now But a hundred twenty billion dollars in inflows already. That's not a trend that's expected to take long to develop that caught me by surprise The metaverse gotta get in it's gonna be big and my problem my biggest problem Which again I always check my ego at the door and look to see how I can get better on the investment side is I Get to a lot of these trends too early Be a little bit of downside first before they take off and work out and that's fine I'm okay with that being a long-term holder and a lot of you know that a lot of you actually mentioned that was funny Somebody mentioned that when my investor conference So (15/34)
whenever you get in I know it's probably gonna come down first But then you've been right on a lot of these things you get so excited this Out of those trends that got into early I've never seen that much money flow into them I was like wow, this is a great idea. This is gonna happen We're seeing adoption here and there you see 120 billion dollars in six months, especially during a recession flow into it I mean, that's the stamp of approval The money is a stamp of approval anyone can make predictions and try to get you hear that crypto's going to 100 billion Whatever you want to whatever crazy forecast try to get you into everything you follow the money. It doesn't lie So now courage a reason we're fully engulfed in this industry now purchasing five million dollars of virtual real estate And TCG's metaverse the largest ever and that was beat out by a hundred million dollar purchase Recently in the same metaverse and TCG But TCG is gonna open to the public in q4 this year and they were (16/34)
sponsoring the meta Expo. She just came back from The access we had was incredible. Our booth was the first booth as you walked in I Think Veronica Charette for that helped out tremendously But we set up as a studio for interviews and it was packed just about the entire weekend I mean, I didn't have a minute of free time we do almost all the metaverse companies in attendance and The stories that we heard I mean these Young entrepreneurs people that had so many great ideas and they were coming to us Because we have credibility now we made that purchase we have security tokens. So Being the bridge between crypto and Wall Street were two industries that really don't like each other Crypto needs Wall Street. You need that money Wall Street. If you're looking for innovation here it is It's changing the industry that you're in. That's why they're covering so hard But for us we have the bridge we have the Wall Street experience. We have people this is as podcast We have investors that want to (17/34)
invest and look for new ideas and find great ideas from us And then we have the crypto crowd that trusts us and You have to earn that trust how by being in the room by showing hey, we made the biggest deal Like they're like, oh, I think I heard you're like, yeah, we made the five-month. That's you you made the $5,000 per oh my god And then I'm looking at the structure of the company and they're horrible Everybody thinks they need to have a token and I'm like, what's the token economics and they don't even know I'm not putting them down. I'm not saying anything but My Speech was about investors and how to raise capital and By doing that I had investors in the audience and I picked one out I said how many investors in the audience and you know, whatever 10 12 raised their hand I know all the names of course and I reached out and I someone I X right on stage I said how long you been following me? He's like Frank. I think I've been following is that you're a teenager I said if I ever been (18/34)
wrong and he looked at me I said, no have I ever been wrong and he goes yes And I said, but you know why they're all here following me is because I never fucked an investor in my life Said so it's not the fear of being wrong. Don't ever lie to them. This is your family these are people that are following you and You want them to participate in your idea if it works out and they see that you're busting your ass and you're doing everything You possibly can it doesn't work out. They'll be okay with that. Trust me They invest in it. They're smart. They know the risks of the awards and they're saying okay This guy works as hard as he can but just couldn't break through. That's okay What they hate is when you're filthy rich and they didn't participate and that's how their company is set up through tokens Because people gonna buy their utility token, which doesn't even have a utility because a lot of these guys don't have You know a business that's generating revenue yet Or maybe a little bit (19/34)
of revenue, but you know They want to set these tokens up and I'm like man if there's so many great companies and great ideas If they just structured it, right Structured like we structured our security token forget about the whole bullshit and as we purchase more real estate as we get more into this trend as we get more names on our file and You're selling more subscriptions and financial newsletters and stuff like that Maybe we get taken over at a higher price everyone. It's investors gonna benefit Because I said it once you do that and so many people in crypto and so many people even in mining I see it mining too. It's amazing how many people like try to pitch me an idea I say no that company goes out of business or they're with another company two years later And they'll call me and pitch me another idea. I'm like you freaking out of your mind really From investing in you and your idea. You better be 100% committed I don't want to hear about anything else that you're invested in or (20/34)
I'm gone That's why I'm investing you that's why I'm giving you the platform. That's why I'm telling you or telling people Hey, this is a great. I'm the one that's vetting I'm the one that's bringing this to everybody that I know and if I'm doing that I have to do the research and and If I'm not vetting you you do something that it ruins my credibility I told a lot of these kids And just the ideas holy shit the ideas they presented were just you know how they're gonna use a metaverse It was mind-blowing by the way you can have access to all this stuff for the coming weeks All these interviews and everything There's a huge opportunity for us where they're just looking for guidance like they don't know any better on that front But yet they're creative and you want to unleash creativity You want to unleash that and that's the future generation? Let them go because when they're worried about how do I structure this or the wall street part of it a? Lot of times company goes to shit You (21/34)
gotta hire people that are good at what you're not good at That requires you checking your ego at the door, but that's where From the first day right it was Friday Saturday Sunday from the middle first day because we didn't do too many interviews at the beginning Everyone's just open up their booth and stuff, and then we started doing interviews, and then word got around who we were These guys are great. You could trust them you could trust them with idea. They're looking for everyone to benefit They have a great audience someone you could trust he has credibility, and I can't tell you I think it was every single company came to our booth It was just packed the whole entire time pitching ideas Some of them were not that good Some of them were very very very good someone covers small caps these ideas were fantastic and most of it was a way to connect a different way To get your name out there to connect to everyone, but I look at this industry. It's incredible I know many of you even if (22/34)
you listen to this or if you look at the metaverse you say well Facebook roblox epic Which are huge epics fortnight? I mean They're not really metaverses and someone just downgraded Facebook And I agree with that downgrade because Facebook is really stuck right now. They're stuck Because they change the name to meta Going all in on the metaverse, but it's not a true metaverse It's a virtual platform and these are closed platforms, and they have to be and that's fine like essentially They have that's fine. If you're a closed platform what that means is all the money's flowing to you It's your company you want to track the data analytics everything Everything that soul is flowing through you. That's not a metaverse. That's gamification That's a virtual platform Say combined with you know augmented reality platform The metaverse is a true open platform And we're not talking about defy which we're starting to realize defy can't really exist And I know if you're from crypto you're listening (23/34)
to that defy Can never really exist without some kind of layer of protection over it because once you get your money stolen. That's it You're gone, and you're not gonna get big big big money into defy Especially The trillions of dollars of Wall Street unless there's some kind of layer of protection And we're seeing that over and over and over again But we have an open platform Where anyone can create own their own digital material assets? But developers could build whatever they want in this new world I mean think Think tombstone how many movies have been about tombstone holy cow? You'll get what 1870s Wyatt Earp trial day was brothers So like a hundred people living there in tents, and what did they do they all wanted to stake their claim? Whose saloon they want they built to build people making clothes? And getting access to food and mining materials gambling halls they were built restaurants place to get newspapers right any writers construction You're building a whole economy And (24/34)
it's to whatever level you want to where if I build this let's see if we see demand if we do let's keep building and building and building And that's pretty cool. You have that in a real world. You don't have that in a digital world You don't Anyone going to tombstone wanted to build run a business that they could Yeah, but now on a digital side it's YouTube Facebook Apple I mean these guys can kick you off their platforms whenever they want doesn't matter how many subscribers you want just was saying the wrong thing They look at this play everybody had a chance to build something to create make money I mean, that's what a true metaverse is that's what TCG is doing So it doesn't have other companies are doing right now So you have Facebook epic roblox they have the user basis, and they're gonna do fine We're likely gonna see a lot of these people flock to other metaverses of the years ahead Especially as they continue to get built since it allows more freedom more control of your (25/34)
property No restrictions when it comes to innovation technologies ownership That's what will make the next generation of social experience more personal more engaging And especially more fun and people want to be entertained. They want to be entertained more than ever A good example this one person interview his name is dill known as Dylan Rhodes So met him at the conference interviewed him He's a multi-platinum artists and a viral single Jordan Belfort which hit number 25 on the billboards Now when it came to the money aspect The record label made most of the money and he got shafted got screwed you hear that a lot You don't hear that from the top people at top whatever three percent Cuz of music or movies or whatever, but a lot of people get shaft so What did he do? He's now humble He learned a lesson young kid and now he's selling NFTs to his 1 million plus listeners and plans to stream his concerts in the metaverse Now providing NFTs. What does that do? Because when his fans (26/34)
purchase these NFTs they get exclusive perks. There's a lot of value there. I get a chance to meet him Having VIP access to his constant metaverse having access to different versions of his hit songs Because I made 10 times more money using NFTs in the metaverse compared to when he was under label and had a platinum selling hit Now times that by all of these entrepreneurs and people on the internet that have 10 20 30 million people followings on YouTube Instagram Twitter With it finally starting to realize that everything on there. You don't own You don't own that stuff Making advertising dollars and making a little bit of money. You're producing all the content. You don't own it though. You don't own it Imagine everything you produce you can put an NFT on and anytime it's resold and resold and we see that where people get popular People to ban like the Rolling Stones or whatever any ban anyone that's popular people are gonna want more and more just like athletes That's why they're (27/34)
doing this NFT where I don't have to get the NBA involved I don't have to get my agent involved. I don't get all these people involved This is my stuff and people want it and it's probably the value it's gonna go higher and higher based on you And you own your own franchise now. It's yours You're the king of it. Not everybody else making money off of you That's the future Wall Street sees it Influencers see it everybody see it and that's why you're seeing money flow into this at this pace Those entrepreneurs. I'm at the conference. I mean it was incredible You can have access to all the stories or ideas which are fascinating I'm gonna have that all in the weeks ahead, but once you see these interviews guys, why don't you see him the passion? how they plan on using the metaverse to Bring their brands to the metaverse, you know It's you the metaverse and bringing their brands into these and which ones are they going to select to bring them into the metaverse Because it's gonna be a bunch (28/34)
of them. It's not a comparison the internet People say well you can't you just keep building and building and building you're gonna have certain metaverses It's like streaming platforms. Whoever has the most entertainment the most fun the more engaging that's gonna get the most traffic so graphics are a big thing, which is why Decentraland is a little dangerous and and so is Openseas The graphics coming out right now and you know, I learned a ton about the technology the engines that they're using and From the developer in if Wow, we make a lot of contacts. Holy cow You're gonna get a better understanding especially once you see this content these interviews better understanding of the metaverse Why it's the future Why it's here right now Why I put my money my mouth is right it's a huge investment in five million dollars virtual real estate purchase And you realize why those ten trillion dollar market predictions by Wall Street firms It's likely gonna be conservative Because that's (29/34)
where everyone is going. It's happening now. It's not gonna happen a couple years from now So I'm gonna tell you how to position yourself as individual investor at a business What you're gonna need to do sir later guys, it's gonna be someone's creating a website for your company in the 90s I don't want to do it. I don't want to do it. Well, you better do it You better you're gonna be left behind There's a massive opportunity right now Which my exact words when I spoke at the VIP party a VIP party is kind of like concert thing I think they'll perform the stuff and I didn't even know I was gonna go up there I kind of knew and then they did this supposed to be a panel or whatever and next thing, you know Like yeah, Frank could you speak and there's three of us had spoken it was like ten minute speeches each and two people went before me I was the last one and Yeah, I really didn't know I was gonna say to be honest I don't know I said look guys, you know Look to your right and now everyone (30/34)
look to your left and I say you're all effing millionaires You're early to this party you have the ability to create almost whatever you want And it's truly what I believe for anyone getting into this industry right now. It's that early It seems like it's early like oh man, it's early because a lot of people don't know about it wait until the next six months Okay, I have a history of tracking this stuff for me I couldn't when I brought you to metaverse and doing this before I made a $5 million probably like wow, this is cool This is awesome. I Didn't think that much money would flow into this brand new industry this quickly and the people I'm talking to the platforms I'm seeing these platforms. I'm seeing examples of What they intend to do on these platforms and I am completely blown away when you see it you're gonna be blown away It's like was six years ago when Oculus Just couple five by Facebook and they were at the consumer electronics show and it was the first time I experienced (31/34)
real virtual reality And I was like, oh my god, this is amazing. It blew me away Everybody was talking about it at that conference It took a little while two years three years No, it's not just oculus nets everybody getting into this industry the technologies here the industry is here And when you see it, you're gonna know why it's definitely gonna happen It's gonna happen a lot sooner than you think so the coming weeks I'm gonna share a lot of this content. It's amazing and the better Expo we interviewed tons and tons of people Should many of their ideas which you're not gonna find anywhere else because in order to find them you need to be in the room I've talked to you guys many many times. You've got to be in the room access to information is the greatest Asset you could have That's how you get into these trends By having a great network of people But you have to be in the room. You can't sit behind a desk gotta be these conferences You gotta be speaking to people So if all those (32/34)
ideas that could be one or two that you take that could be a billion dollar idea The only way you're gonna get access to that and learn about that is if you're there but these new metaverse companies A lot of them that we met they trust us since we have credibility with our virtual land purchase And through TCG who's a partner in our firm that introduces a lot of people they met me face to face now To the give us amazing access which is gonna lead to a ton of new ideas for you so stay tuned It's gonna be a lot of fun, and I'm excited It's guys that's it for me questions comments for the email you Frank Curzio research com that's Frank at Curzio research com I'll be here with Daniel break down the markets tomorrow I'll see you then take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment (33/34)
decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - From stock-picking monkeys to security tokens: A 40-year history of Curzio Research.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main Don't out there. It's November 18th. I think Erzio's the Wall Street unplugged podcast. Why break that headlines and Tell you it's really moving these markets So I have a unique interview set up today So it's someone many of you probably familiar with since you talked to her personally Right got you guys thinking right now have no idea who it is her name, which we share the last name is Christine Curzio Runs numerous divisions here, but you probably know it through customer service But also does tons of other things for us amazing things which he's gonna get to in a minute But we had a couple of people come on and say look have great conversations with your sister she has a great job customer service and and You should get around a podcast and I wanted to get you on a podcast Chris listen (1/34)
Thanks so much for coming on because this is gonna be a really funny interview because you're the person behind the scenes That gets all these crazy emails and all the crazy stuff And there are other people that do a lot of work for me, right? Even though my face is you know is what they see but the people behind the scenes really, you know makes the engine run I just want to say thanks for coming on and Thanks for about to share Lots of funny stories right now. How's it going? It's good, it's good. It's it's challenging sometimes and as you know When you're ready to call customer service, you're not calling customer service because you're happy and you want to say hey I love you guys you're calling because you're pissed off you're angry So pissed off at the company that you have to call or email customer service and complain and scream and yell and curse We've had colorful adjectives thrown at us like you can't even imagine like what? What are some of the things that people? Oh my (2/34)
gosh The F word three times over and and F wad F this F I can't even their words that I don't even think that are in any dictionary yet, but It's amazing and sometimes I read these and I laugh because their people are so angry because we either They either press the button twice and charge their card twice for a subscription and they want their four dollars back or they Didn't read that email they received that said we are going to charge you for your upcoming renewal of your subscription and They didn't stop that from going through so they call us they email us. They're so so angry and to me We are an up-and-up company, we're not trying to take anyone's money. We want you to be happy We want you to like what you read. We want you to love what you buy We don't want to take your seventy nine dollars or your four dollars. I'll give it back to you. Call me I'll refund your four dollars. It's no big deal But I gotta tell you the emails that come in and the phone calls. I mean these people (3/34)
are angry. They're angry birds It's amazing. Well, you know, it's funny because a lot of times when I look at the customer service aspect It was always the most important to me because one of the things I love about our subscribers, too Is when there's something wrong we'll get to those emails in a second, but when there's something wrong and our team's really great Like we really go through, you know, there's a whole editing process. We're efficient. We're very fast You know, I do videos we get them up next day I know I've been in this industry my whole life It usually takes three four five days from the time someone starts writing an idea to get out We do it the day before and get it out to you right in times of the essence with a lot of these stocks but just to see you know, those emails come in when a link isn't working or a question we have with crypto intelligence, right which is cool because I recommended something recently in crypto intelligence and It was on the Kraken (4/34)
exchange and how's the easiest way to buy it? It wasn't on coinbase or Gemini and when Certain subscribers if you lived in new and I didn't know this because even when you look at crack and it says it's open all 50 States it's not it's open to every state except for New York and Washington and we have subscribers all over the world really but in every state and We started getting questions in and then you're like, hey, there's like five or six and then you'll email me and say hey It's you know, I'm getting like ten of these things twelve of these things in there and that gets relayed back to me And I'm like, okay, let me send an alert and get back to them But the communication parts amazing and like you said with customer service, we're an independent company I have to show you gains or you're not gonna subscribe anymore. Also. I was always a believer that look if if We're full of shit and we give you a product that nobody likes Then you should be able to cancel right right away and a (5/34)
lot of times I bought stuff where I can't find where the hell It cancel how to do it. There's no phone This phone numbers is very easy to do and if you like you say it for us the worst thing is chargebacks Right chargebacks are the worst thing that's when you call your credit card company instead of the actual company even when you call a credit card company it'll advise you to call the company because chargebacks are really really bad especially in our business because There's a lot of people out there They're right really shitty crazy reports and gets lots of lots of chargebacks when people come into our products at least are solid They're good most people like this is amazing right they see videos and stuff but just seeing that whole process such a big deal because a lot of times when links aren't working you're able to send it out right away to other people and You know down the chain and immediately we're able to get to it. So which is pretty cool, right? Mm-hmm. Yes Yes, we have (6/34)
you know, not only do we have complaints. There are a few and far between some Subscribers and non subscribers that contact us and say you're doing a great job or we love Frank He was so funny on this podcast the other day but we also have some great subscribers that contact us and say hey, I think there's a typo in one of your newsletters and We appreciate that, you know, we have some kick-ass marketing and editorial folks here and they catch everything but there is okay on occasion there is something that might slip through the cracks and I'll call the editorial team or our developer and they are Johnny on the spot. They fix it right away One funny thing the other day we had a guy that said He sent me a screenshot He tried to look up Curzio research comm on his smartphone and he said it's all fuzzy It doesn't look right and I thought alright, so I Replied to him and told him He said it looked fuzzy on his Apple smartphone and I said well get rid of the iPhone and use a Samsung like I (7/34)
have I don't think he appreciated that too much and I guess we better watch out because we do have these podcasts on Apple But he laughed I laughed and you know what? I sent that email over to one of our developers and Sure enough. He fixed whatever bug was there and one two three it worked. It was beautiful So we do have you know, we have a large team here at Curzio research and everyone is Johnny on the spot 24-7 just about so we don't work only Nine to five we're on the weekends. We're answering emails on the weekends at night holidays Because let's face it That's when a lot of our subscribers have some downtime from their regular jobs and they're online Reading their emails and they're looking at these things over the weekend when they have time So it's important for us to answer that in a timely fashion Yeah, it reminds me one of those myths in business too when they say the customer is always right. Mm-hmm The customer is not always right Customer is not always it's not always (8/34)
right and I can tell you and I'll tell you why and a lot of people know Why the customers are when you? Like you could be mad right and with our service look I'm coming out with pics every month Like even this year if we look at this year and we look at say Curzio research advisor and I'm being honest with you Last year was a great year this year was good But there was like a five six month period where the market was didn't do that Well, right and yet it's near all-time highs just because a lot of big technology companies are there But like 60% of the index was actually down over the past six months So you came in six months ago You got a couple of recommendations that are kind of behind me here in the markets up and you get so a lot of it Is timing right? I mean people getting into crypto news like we did fantastic, but who knows if it goes down You know 20% then those people came in the last three months There's always gonna be people pissed I understand that but When you're sending (9/34)
in an email and I've done this at least twice where I've kicked people out of out of Curzio research Because you've sent me an email and you you're good with this like, you know, you never annoy me, right? You know, so yeah, but you like this was a person both of these people who have been free people and they subscribe to front-end newsletter and I've answered their questions. I asked me questions all the time Frank This is and just over the years I remember answering them and then when you pull up in Google you can see how many times these people email you and I answer these Questions and they ripped you and they were cursing at you I mean it was bad and I actually went to them and I gave it to them I was like we don't stand for this bullshit. I can't believe all the and so well you say the customer's always right They're not always right. They're right most of the time but now it's almost like there's no stupid questions There's stupid questions You can actually the questions like (10/34)
if you're seeing someone say that that you admire that you influence that influences you Don't ask them a question that You could easily figure out in ten seconds if you did a Google search don't waste your time on that Make sure it's really so there are stupid questions But Jamie Diamond was doing a big thing and someone Raised a hand and said something was asking about benefits and he was just like that's that's the terrible question But sometimes there is but I could see that even with customer service But you know, I didn't want this whole thing to be about customers That's what I want what it's about because a lot of people I've been following for a long time and just you know the history we've been in this business right with our late dad It was a newsletter right for a long time. We've been doing this for a long time I would have you seen in terms of difference of the business because you know, I've been as wow I feel old now but close to 30 years. You're a little bit older than (11/34)
me But you know just seeing how the business is different from when we were really young right when dad started this thing was pretty cool Yeah, my dad started this business the financial newsletter and what he would do is he would write in his chicken-scratch Handwriting and my mom would type up the report then he would send it to the printer would take two days to print So, of course, you know The stock has moved within those two days and he would bring all of those paper copies home Or to his office at the time and my two brothers and I Frank and Nick we would fold and stuff envelopes and put labels on those envelopes take them to the post office in crates and Mail them first class so that all of his subscribers had those newsletters in their hand within, you know, two days But it was maybe like a five-day process or four-day max now It's instantaneous, you know Frank gets on a podcast and boom five minutes later. You guys are reading about it So times have definitely changed and (12/34)
dad would definitely be so proud of you For everything maybe maybe maybe a little proud Yeah, but he was uh, you know, we definitely follow like in his footsteps to the point where you know Focusing on the customer and trying to educate and stuff like that never got lost Like I remember somebody coming over and they had like three million dollars in an account That's a lot to imagine money at the time to imagine money and he's writing a newsletter You're allowed to do both back then now You really have to separate those businesses with the SEC new laws that size last 15 years That person came in with a few million dollars and I think we had maybe like 75 80 million under management So it was it was a pretty sizable account and I remember him looking at it and he just said, you know What there's nothing I could do for you, you know, you're diversified You just she owned like 25 different stocks in all different industries. He's like that, you know your position I can't really you know, (13/34)
I'm gonna take this I'm gonna be charging you and probably own a lot of these stocks And that was something I never forgot because you don't see especially on Wall Street I've been through Wall Street with Kramer and even before that for an exchange broker. You don't see that, right? Such cutthroat place and for me that growing up and seeing people who are successful by doing the right thing compared to being You know wealthy by doing the wrong thing like that always stuck to me and it's just so easy To take advantage of people in this industry and you can get away with it Like you can take advantage of it And I mean you saw it back in the Merrill Lynch days because you work at Lehman for 10 years Mm-hmm. I mean, I remember having Blodgett came it was just you know, all the internet stocks I mean they made billions off of that and he got fined what whatever it was the firm got fine He got kicked out of his now he owns like, you know business inside of making a fortune but a lot of (14/34)
those people got killed and nothing comes of it right Merrill is still around what by Bank of America and just to see how that business Or how this business that I'm in of this industry is is and how it takes advantage of so many people and being able to Be a voice out there going look a lot of this is bullshit. You need to know that it's cool It results in sometimes, you know not having as many friends have great contacts, but really, you know telling the truth But that's something that we've seen and even through the time where you know, we were around when you know CNBC was just starting right and then you know dad called the crash 1987 crash and writing which was a big deal I mean everybody calls a crash every day now There's only like 10 people listen to and then we had this small tiny office, right? And you got all these news vans and that's when everything took off He was on dateline and I mean you could tell him the thing about the monkey, right? I don't know if everybody knows (15/34)
that the Wall Street Journal Yeah there was a the Wall Street Journal hosted a dartboard contest and They wanted to take a chimpanzee and pit him against I think three super financial advisors and our dad was one of them and The chimps name was Casey and it was all over the Wall Street Journal. It was it was amazing It was a crazy article, but ultimately My father was winning for a long time and I think after three or four years then the chimps picks Ultimately won out but it brought us and him so much publicity It was unbelievable and you know, some people said oh don't you feel that you know going against a monkey? It was the beginning though It was the beginning part because the beginning was when the monkey so they picked five stocks each and it was a monkey against my father I think they had third graders there or something I think that was a contest and third guys dropped acts They got embarrassed because they started losing and this turned out to be one of the most watched (16/34)
segments on dateline before everything's like the murder Mystery now that they links to be like current events and stuff. It's funny Yeah, so and he was on I think six or seven times which was kind of like a and it had heard I was record amount of people watching it because the monkey after the first three weeks Like they picked five stocks the monkey picked five random stocks They made that pick think it might have been Boeing GE McDonald's five stocks and one of the companies he picked Oh Kroger Harnish fig he picked Kroger Money actually picked Kroger. We have the story even better right and then and this is real we have this on video So I had this on video OVC our tapes. I'm gonna put this on our YouTube page. Fantastic. Fantastic Because my dad's a really funny guy when it came to that and he was uh, yeah the monkey one of the picks I think was a harness figure industry some got taken over right? So he was kicking my dad's ass off the beginning They're like, yeah, this monkey's do (17/34)
and they feel like and they really built it up Like this one this is like best guy in stocks best stock picker ever, you know, the Wall Street Journal Dark book contest. He has the all-time wins in that right and you're talking about lots of famous people who in there He wanted more times than anyone else and then as time went on then dad won, right and and for us for me I'm like when he asked me about he asked you about he's like, what do you think about this? I was like, it's good idea. Just don't lose And then as he was losing he made more fun of it and he actually went to the zoo was hanging out with the monkey Holding the monkey right with different segments and stuff and said if the monkey outperforms me, I'm gonna hire him, right? So it's like a big deal. There's like a six episode thing, which is hilarious and it's really good at the end I think he finally won but just the publicity we got from that and go into stations and meeting Maria Bartiromo When she was a kid and all (18/34)
these people going to Bloomberg when Bloomberg wasn't that big and stuff But just you know going through that system is pretty cool to see there and where we are now, I guess right? Yeah, which is awesome Unbelievable, so I want to say this you're in Florida right now. Yeah came to Florida. Thank you for bringing your cold to Florida So, I don't know if it's COVID or not. I shouldn't I shouldn't joke around. Okay. She's like no no No, no, I don't say cold But anyway, I know you want to hang out a little bit more But I know you've been under the weather a little bit but I you plan on moving to Florida a lot you come in here What's going on? Well, I don't know. Um, I have two kids that still live with me and I'm not sure when they're leaving You know how that goes they're 20 and 21 So I feel bad kicking them out but if they kind of get the hint and maybe I could sell the house in New York and move down to Florida and be With with the family down here, so I'm looking I've got a lot of (19/34)
friends that live down here that are snowbirds here So it is very nice here, especially in January February March just to get out of the New York weather, but I have plenty of friends in the customers support emails that have offered to show me around Florida and you know, I always throw humor into the emails. Where do you live in, Florida? So I've made plenty of friends in the customer support last guest. I'm gonna send you something, right? Yes. Yes There was a guy who? Who was angry about something and it turns out that he's a fisherman in The oceans of Alaska and invited me to come on his next chartership You know fishing trip and sent me all sorts of pictures of all the fish that he caught. So that was really nice I mean a package in the mail with some fish would have been nice too and then also that the the the that was really remarkable is something that really touched me was the The person that was a Navy SEAL that actually sent an email Yes, he's a Navy military subscriber. (20/34)
He's a master chief and hovercraft pilot He sent us pictures and so many gifts and one of them is a paddle With some hand stitched information on it I think Frank is gonna show that it's hanging on his wall and it's signed I've shown this once before I think maybe through subscribers. It's an amazing piece that he sent and Group and what he did they listened to the podcast all the time and you know Just teaching them and then on the back of the paddle He has his whole entire unit sign it saying thank you so much for the lessons You taught me and and this is like hand stitched unbelievable. Beautiful. Beautiful. Beautiful Yeah, something that really did touch me and then you know, there's so many great people out there and yeah That's what the one of the things I really love about the jobs like helping people and stuff like that But uh, you know, not all the emails are bad again It is customer service, but guys just let you know if you're emailing that's a port and part of our business, (21/34)
right? I always say that with Amazon Amazon is the best because you know, some could be broken and You call and you're just like hey, you know, this is but they don't even ask any questions like okay automatically They're saying is something else automatically and you know, it results in me constantly telling that story to everybody else And that spreads right? so when you have good customer service when you're able to figure out these problems and people gonna be pissed and maybe you're Coming the wrong time. Maybe you have a couple bad stock picks and I get that right? That's fine But you know our job is to make sure that we're helping you if you have problems and Chris you've been doing a good job with that But I don't want to leave it there Chris because that's not the only thing you do because when it comes to HR It is important. We're a small company So you're able to do HR and customer service but another thing is talk about the business you started with credit card processing (22/34)
because I helped us out tremendously and guys listen up if You have a business or if your financial newsletter publisher Please listen to this part because this is one of this is one of the mistakes that I made running the business that I didn't Was a big deal When everybody wants to run their own business, it's they want to do what they're great at They don't understand that when we started getting bigger. It's like holy shit HR. What do you mean? What do I do HR waiting wait accounting? We have to have all this stuff in place where it was just like hey, yeah, that guy's good All right, give him a thousand dollars for consulting free and everything's got you know, it's it's a company now. It's a corporation But the credit card processing holy shit I mean that is very very serious right and talk about that because you start your own company and you know That has been a tremendous help for us because you know, we ran into a little bit of trouble with that Yeah So as Frank mentioned, (23/34)
I've been in the financial industry my entire life I was in Lehman Brothers for about ten years then jumped over to work for one or two credit card processing companies and Then I decided that I'm gonna start my own it's simply payments and one of the important things about an online e-commerce business is that You definitely have to have some sort of a refund policy. You have to be in touch with your customers One of the things that you don't want to ever have is an enormous amount of chargebacks When someone calls their credit card bank and lets their bank know that they didn't like or never ordered this and they want to refund What they should always do is call the company first And that's what we always tell everyone all of our subscribers if you're not happy with something call us We'll talk about a refund prorated refund. These things are extremely important In addition, once you hit a certain percentage of chargebacks the credit card company can actually shut you down I've seen (24/34)
that with so many other companies out there the e-commerce industry is very high risk because you don't have to have the credit card in hand and It's it's a little bit of a dangerous Situation if you're in the e-commerce business and you don't pay attention to your customer service So being in the card industry has definitely helped us tremendously we are able to minimize those chargebacks Minimize the requests for the chargebacks and also manage the credit card processing company's expectations There's a lot of things that we can do. There's some things that we can't do but being in the payments industry Especially now after kovat. I mean no one really uses cash anymore. Everyone is using cards So this is this is something that you know again, you know being ethical right from the get-go I remember my parents had their their business their financial newsletter business and They had to have a credit card machine so that they could charge people for subscriptions For their for my (25/34)
father's newsletter and those salespeople for those credit card companies were terrible They would charge a thousand two thousand dollars for a credit card terminal now, you can get those credit card terminals for a hundred and fifty dollars And I do the same thing as as our parents and Frank I talk to the people and I make sure that They are comfortable with what they have. I don't try to tell someone. Oh, you should switch over to me right away We don't do that. I'll tell them let me look at your statement. Let me see what your credit card rates are You're fine the rates that you have right now are fine. Stay with the credit card company that you're with I'd love your business, but your rates are not so bad. So it's all about being ethical as well Yeah, and one of the things that I would say is because what our business and if you think about becoming you know Doing what I'm doing, right? So it's the barriers to entry are extremely high if you get past Um, I would say a half a (26/34)
million dollars right below that nobody cares it's okay But with our business when we started growing this we send out promotions and in a two-week time We could generate a lot of money in two weeks If the promotion is really good and people like it everyone's signing on to the products and that's what we do here Right, and I want to sell products at the right time. I don't want to sell your product every single day every single week It's like hey, this is really working. This is why I've been telling against a crypto This is why I'm telling it's getting to small caps And when we do that we come up with a big promotion and a nice theme and saying hey This is and I'll go my copy team and I'll tell them listen. This is the idea I want people to come in at this gonna be their first experience. I really like this name I think they're gonna make money off it and we write a whole copy package and When people come in you generate a lot of that money in a week or two and that triggered right (27/34)
that trigger the credit card process I would say who you know, they basically have a financial publishing industry They view us the same way they would view as the porno industry a lot of risky industries And they held our money Significant amount of money. How long did they hold that Chris? They hold they held about five hundred thousand dollars for almost two years For almost two years and that was something that I wasn't prepared for and you could borrow off that we didn't have to and we had Cash in the bank, but it got to the part where it was like, you know This is like two years ago two and a half years ago before we even did anything with a token where you know We just we weren't established with them So they don't know who we are and they're like who the hell is generating all this money right away like in two weeks What the hell are you doing? Would you sell so right away? It's all system-based all the red flags go up and they halt and they call and they're like we have to (28/34)
wait now They'll see like we have money in the bank cash balance. We can cover it. They see our reputation They see our chargebacks are low, but to get to this point was very hard and that was something that was really unexpected So, you know in this business particularly way, it's like a two-week period You could generate a lot of money where a lot of our sales come in. I would say maybe You know a two-month period not like it's not like recovering some of its recurring, you know, but our industry It's like a lot of it would come in in certain periods like a week period a two-week period over a year it's like two months and that's what triggers it but That was something that surprised me that wasn't ready for him like whoa and thank God we were in the right position and we weren't You know spending money wildly and crazy But you know five hundred thousand dollars a lot to any small business and you're paying your employees and they're like no We're holding this because we want to make (29/34)
sure because you can get all these cancellations and shit like that I'm like, whoa And that goes to tell you how our industry is because our industry is treated that way because there's a lot aggressive promotes The reason why I started my own business. It's a lot of shit out there And there's a lot of chargebacks and you again once they saw that we did that was one of the things they came up But that was what I wanted to break that down because there are other businesses there that you do an online stuff but just be prepared for that that was a risk I didn't see coming and You know you helped out tremendously with that. Thank God because that could have significantly hurt the business. Yeah, which is crazy Yeah, definitely. Anyway, so Chris. Thanks so much for coming on I'm curious to see what the emails are gonna get if guys you have any negative emails About me about my performance Chris. What's your email? customer support Support at the Bronx ooh calm Yes, that's where it is. (30/34)
That's where it is. But it is it's it's it's just like our support email and Which is what Chris what's that support email support at Curzio research calm and let everybody put everyone It's everyone's first name at courage the research calm, but I make them say it anyway So it doesn't matter even you Christine cause research calm, but thanks so much for coming on Chris. I really appreciate it I mean, you've done a fantastic job to see where we are now and again people behind the scenes Who you don't hear from none of this works unless you know, you have those people here, which is which is amazing And by the way, her son is Joe who I have on this podcast who is the young investor That's investing and you know You guys love those interviews because he was humble enough to come on and tell talk about his mistakes I know a lot of people I'd say mistakes. We always get great emails when Joe's on but uh, yes If you're gonna yell at Joe, I wouldn't do it to Christine I do it to me Remember (31/34)
I see all those emails, you know, she knows which she's got the all your addresses remember that you got all their addresses Right. So think about that before you want to send a negative email and say shit. Just remember she's got your address if you're a subscriber Right, thanks so much for coming on cuz I really appreciate it. Okay. Thanks for having me. All right good good stuff. So guys Leave it there. Hopefully you enjoyed that interview Look Customer service is extremely important to me, right? For my business. We're not looking to you know Sell you crap and it makes no sense for us to sell you something that you're not gonna be happy with and then You know month and a half later you're pissed off and you're sending us Negative emails and you're pissed off and just writing all bad reviews about us all over the place for the next 12 months for us As a business that doesn't make sense. I never made sense for us. So If you do have problems if you think you get better on products I (32/34)
mean, that's another way to use customer service as well. But I get updates from customer service all the time It allows me to send alerts on many of my newsletters So let me know what you guys are thinking what you guys are focused on it gives me It lets me gauge sentiment Right, I mean it allows me to get sent especially with crypto where extreme get lots of crypto questions or different things and what people Thinking about but it's a very very important aspect of the business So guys feel free to write in again constructive criticism, whatever, you know It makes our company better right the more things and more things we could fix up and make better You know, that's what we're here folks are in for a long term. So Yeah, thanks again steam coming on appreciate all your support questions or comments for the email Frank at Curzio research calm That's Frank at Curzi research calm and appreciate all the support guys. Love you guys, and I'll see you next week. Take care Wall Street (33/34)
unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Monetize your social media with NFTs… and build generational wealth.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main there September 15 I've encouraged us watching a plot pockets. We break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets here goes some news stories with you recently Billionaires Peter Thiel and Mark Anderson Are gonna leave the board of Facebook and Instagram, which is a parent company of meta I'm gonna leave those boards and they're leaving those boards because they both Have tons of crypto investments and web 3 investments. So it's kind of a conflict of interest and they announced that and This is just recently a Cold months earlier a Venture firm called one confirmation. This is backed by Pew Thiel Mark Anson. If you're not familiar Mark Anson grace pretty much the greatest French capitalist ever And also Mark Cuban those three. So this one confirmation this fund is backed (1/34)
by them launched a hundred million dollar fund to invest in NFTs in June Looking at Shopify watch e-commerce platforms says gonna launch a token gated experiences So business is gonna be able to offer exclusive products and discounts to followers that hold tokens or NFTs for specific collection Nike Lamborghini Louis Vuitton the UFC have also announced that They launch NFT projects recently doodles an empty collection spearheaded by reddit co-founder It's called fifty four million dollars in funding this is recently this just happened Took the valuation to seven hundred million dollars. This is in this market. Think about what's going on in the market. Think about this Who are some of those investors FTX ventures who you should be familiar with they're buying up crypto assets like crazy Partner with Scaramucci's fun. I think they invested in block fi Crypto comm tons of companies. They're having trouble Also a crew capital and ten T Holdings took part in the funding round those are big (2/34)
names in the sector You have a 16 Z if you're not familiar that's Aerson Harwood's web 3 arm basically best in crypto projects They announced a free licensing system for NFTs just a couple days ago. No longer Just gonna help the NFT sector unleash what they call its economic potential It's basically helping NFT creators to protect and release their intellectual property their rights Grading empty holders the baseline of rights that are broke their rockable enforceable easy to understand again I'm quoting them, but basically it's helping creators provide the framework And give them that framework and platform to launch their collections It's gonna spur this creativity and saying hey, we're gonna help you guys let us see your projects well invested We're gonna help you give you this free licensing system Just the other day Starbucks should remain on Starbucks Adding a non fungible token to its loyalty program through the Starbucks Odyssey It's gonna give members opportunity to earn and (3/34)
purchase digital collectible assets are gonna unlock access to new benefits and immersive coffee experiences they say This is all news that's been announced in basically the past three months up to yesterday with Starbucks All this money floating into NFTs and a market where capital is flowing out like crazy people are going to cash The dollars going higher people are nervous The Fed looks like they're gonna go nuts and just continue to raise Regardless right based on again. I covered this the other day based on a CPI. That's tainted. That's Gonna show that inflation is pretty high because rentals and in shelter accounts with 30% of it So to be looking at that index In which the purpose is to mask inflation and now it's working oppositely because you can't get inflation out of it Even though you've seen inflation indicators you see rents come down in real time rents are coming down as a laggy indicator You've seen prices come down in different areas, but they're gonna go Crazy and (4/34)
raise like crazy throughout the year, which is very very dangerous at this stage considering We're already in a recession a gold recession. Let's look around But yet all this money flowing into web 3 NFTs constantly right constantly So I have a great rest for you today. His name is dr. Ravi Singh Has a massive massive following the first individuals in the world holds a doctoral degree the specialization social media technology He works with tons of celebrities to increase their brands social media digital has numerous degrees He was the first and I'm gonna destroy the words. I'm gonna spell it SI KH American to graduate from the US military with a turban So you get a chance to see him? He's very funny hilarious So make sure you're watching this on our YouTube page. You can see it. If not, you can listen to it do numerous outlets This is a guy has a huge political following Met several presidents ran numerous campaigns Create a multi-million dollar digital company can teach at numerous (5/34)
colleges and go look at his resume. It's unbelievable Larry could do almost anything he wants and His focus 100% is on NFTs where he believes his technology and I'm quoting here is gonna change the world This is a fantastic interview. I want you to please excuse the noise in the background because I literally booked this interview at 515 on Sunday the Palm Beach Expo couple weeks ago that we attended. I was interviewing tons of people and The conference closed at 5 and I don't know if you've been to a conference or if you're presented and we have this whole setup When they close a lot of its unionized man, they kick you out. They kick you out They start just taking everything down. We were the last people in there where they were like, you know You got to get that bad here like one more interview We're working hard for you on a Sunday when the whole place closed Everyone's going out for drinks and join because we work so hard the conference. I Wanted to get this last interview with you (6/34)
when he walked in Earlier that day massive massive crowd around him I saw his speech on stage because I was on stage right after that hosting and moderating to To want to segments which are really cool with a bunch of people on it at the conference So one of them was you know metaverse and I was just entrepreneurs and stuff like that But right after him I was I was on so I didn't get a chance to speak with him But then I spoke with him. He wanted to come over and say hey, you know, I heard about you wanted Yeah, I'll definitely do an interview with you and we did it late So excuse the background she didn't hear poles dropping and stuff like that, but you're gonna be able to hear it perfectly It's fine. Just excuse that but just goes to show you how hard I'm working for you He's working for you again Sunday 515 This is one of my favorite interviews from I think it's like a 20-25 people I conducted at the conference and you're gonna see why in a minute and here's that interview. Dr. (7/34)
Robby Singh I'm so honored to have you on and before you say a word I Usually like introduce people and say okay his percent. This is the introduction. I'm gonna I'm not I usually say what do you do? I'm not gonna do because what I'm saying here is pretty amazing. Okay, so you're very kind No, it's not kind because you deserve it because you earned it right MIT right and suit technology As for University Liberty University Northwestern University Duke University Harvard University all degrees across the board here Just the educational component and one of the things I saw which is much much more important than all of that right NCA division one My father my father I told my dad I wanted to be a professional golfer he looked at me he says You cannot be a golfer. No Indian has ever been Yeah, so I wonder I did play NCAA division one golf one of the happiest days of my life I didn't make it but I did get to go all the way. So that's awesome So, you know what? I feel like I'm a dinosaur (8/34)
this industry being 50 years old But I have a lot of Wall Street clients I've been doing for 30 years that that know this where the innovations coming from and It's cool to see the respect you're getting where I've you know Put a lot of money into this space from these young entrepreneurs right now is seeing I feel like I mean I don't have anything near as common but the education part and where you come from to see you and what you're doing in NFTs Explain that because sure, you know, this isn't like hey young kid doing this It's like somebody else that is education or seeing the future, you know, explain that what what made you go You can do pretty much anything you want the golf team, especially both NFTs and members It was a thought process But you know every journey all the trials and tribulations sort of lead you towards something and once you start accepting them You know, it was one degree after another I didn't anticipate my dissertation, you know happening so quickly I didn't (9/34)
expect my research to come out positive and actually prove a new theory in social media When I did all of these things I realized wow Is there an application that I can apply this knowledge to and because I was an entrepreneur before I went to my PhD I went back when I was in my 40s so I'm dating myself a little bit but I did it because my mother told me you can't be a guru and Call yourself a group. You don't have a PhD and so I said, okay, I'm going to go get up here So that was the that was the logic but there is a need in this space for academic research And what is happening here is not only behavioral right changes that are being taking place There's real tech behind this the blockchain has a component and a category for NFTs Unfortunately, it goes beyond burning a JPEG or minting a picture or etc but no one is teaching this from a Practical standpoint and I'm hoping to do both of them I'm hoping to be a practitioner in the space as well as share my knowledge Because I see the (10/34)
potential changing the world and when I say changing the world I literally mean changing the world this technology has the ability to go around cross borders No middleman and most importantly affect the way we do things in a very positive way from finance All the way into any type of industry. How do you do that with academia? How are you going to be able to Bring this education, right? I've seen it in universities blockchain a little bit not metaverse Not that I've teased yet really you may have seen it. But how do you bring it on that stage? You know, how are you going to be able to disrupt that market where it's not just talking to you But you actually going to these institutions which you know, there's politics involved and you know politics Well, yeah, my former life was being a campaign guru running political campaigns in over 21 different countries I did co-brand with Microsoft my software And worked with the public sector. They're running over 7,000 different political (11/34)
campaigns from you know, school board bomb to presidents Creating digital war rooms for like the Tyree Square and and in different countries So it was an amazing experience but democratization here in the NFT space is Interesting and the the vast is there there's of course the collectible aspect There's the different categories my focus is on the social media aspect because that's my where I did my PhD specialization I see gold in that there's about 7 billion people on social media right now and they've generated a huge amount of content But the problem is that ownership of that content and being able to monetize that content that has not been given I always found it very funny that we engage for free We get nothing in return my wife takes takes a picture or something You just doesn't get free dessert from it and we go to the same restaurant all the time So I asked myself Is there a way that we can take social media content and mint it into an NFT in a very easy way? And that's what (12/34)
I'm doing as founder of social payment comm that's gonna be my contribution to the space I believe that everyone who has a social media account is sitting on gold And I believe that we can convert all of those and I believe that some followers or fans of those accounts will want to basically purchase those NFTs and you're not just someone that's saying this this is what you're doing, right? So talk about the Donald Trump and sweet It's funny, but but it's a good story because we need to do as you know Is if you can explain this to people right? They need to identify on a level that everybody understand everybody knows Donald Trump is but explain what you do there And then we'll really get into a little more detail. Sorry So I tell your audience this took me five years to get to where I am right now I mean this was I saw NFTs in 2017 I saw the potential but when I did my research from my PhD, I actually run a Hypothesis and then experiment, you know do something that was significant. So (13/34)
I analyzed 35,000 647 of Donald Trump's tweets I Analyzed them to see if the tonality of his tone using AI Was significant in shifting engagement and I got very lucky After running it about 16 times on SPSS. It came out statistically significant Which means that to a 95% accuracy tone does shift engagement and his overall voice Didn't make a difference on how we moved engagement in terms of likes retweets and replies Now if you take that information and you meant those as NFTs could someone monetize them now? I did not know at the time that they were going to delete Donald Trump's tweets so now we're one of the few databases on www.Twitterism.com With the ism.com and so we are now looking at that data and saying what did we learn from this? and how can we now apply this to an Influencer or a nano or a different type of influencer and how can we help he or he or she monetize? Their content that they're generating or if they get a paid post How can we help them be able to go ahead and (14/34)
collectively share that with their fans and followers? So you're looking at NFTs right when I see even even at the conference JPEGs digital art some of them have utility features When I see NFTs, I feel like people don't understand what you understand and even what I see where this is access This is services ownership Explained that where you know that seems to me like the next level How do we how do we get there right? Because I think what we got right now a lot had to do very quickly with the metaverse and ownership how to do with cold it Politics right in the last three four years where no matter what size you're on, right? This is freedom of speech country You don't get like holy cow. I get kicked off the same the wrong thing about cold It you know, a lot of people believe it or not that you know, you spoke of your wife You don't know that you don't own this stuff from the internet. You don't own it You think you have a 20 million YouTube following they shut a button off you gone. (15/34)
That's right. You're done You know, you're doing that. That's one of the things I mean think about it You lose all your tweets you lose all your content, but here's I'm gonna even blow your mind even further What happens when you die? What happens to all your content? You're right So yeah who gets that? Is there is there not value in that content? Absolutely. Yeah, your family members don't get it It's not Facebook exactly says oh by the way, I'm gonna gift it to your family You know Facebook hat is a is a ecosystem and they can't do that that that's taking into another So we feel that we can help in that component. Just imagine if you took all your Facebook posts and convert them as NFTs Now who owns them? Now if there's something there there's a perpetual royalty that can be earned and that's what people don't understand But the NFT is not a JPEG image. It's data So whatever data you put inside that NFT in that wrapper So if I take this microphone and I wrap it as an NFT I can (16/34)
disperse the sale of it and then if I'm gone you will still get the royalties Fascinating I know I mean we're talking about a game changer we could be feeding our great-grandchildren from now. Yep Now how does this filter in because you have metaverse companies and for me? I'm doing the same thing with the metaverse I think I feel like you're doing NFTs where the things that I've seen this isn't a video game This is ownership of your own content There's a reason why the biggest companies like the gatekeepers the incident are the biggest investors in the metaverse right now, which is crazy What is the metaverse to you? And how does that factor into the NFTs and the things that you're doing in the future? So I think the NFTs are we have to look at them for what they are and NFT is a token It's a non fungible token. We spend a lot on the non fungible. We don't focus enough on a token when you have a token in the metaverse, it has a variety of value and that value then has to change into (17/34)
some kind of Behavioral result as an asset it has to have a worth So when we engage and we purchase an NFT, how do we take that value in the metaverse and actually make it? maturely Create worth for me So that right there is the challenge of the metaverse because people a have not Experienced it yet be some of them haven't even visited and then see is that when they go inside there? They don't know not necessarily what to do you and I right now are educating You know thousands if not hundreds of thousands of people about NFTs and the potential but we're only 24 months into this Now the science has been there for a long time. It's been on the blockchain etc I remember studying at MIT in 2017 and saying all this is cool but what about Right now who's going to teach people what they need to do with an NFT and how they can utilize it And then I think it's the challenge with the metaverse because it compounds a tenfold If the NFT is basically the token that's gonna be utilizing in the (18/34)
metaverse Then how do I go and actually operate in the metaverse and and when you try to explain something that you've never experienced before It's very difficult and so I think our point of entry from social pay me standpoint will be identifications Personas will create passports so that if you create a Twitter fitter sitter whatever Application you have will be able to authenticate them because I've always thought it was really ridiculous that in order to get that checkmark I really had to kiss up to the social media platforms. I Mean, why can't they just do a KYC and identify me exactly? There's a reason why because I can monetize my accounts Yes, and I would hurt their advertising. Absolutely. Yes. Are you with me? Yeah. No, I'm with you understand Oh, what if social pay me could I still allow them to participate but we verify them and People are willing to go ahead and say I'm not a fake person. I'm willing to say who I am Yeah, because I want to participate in this ecosystem No (19/34)
one out here in the NFT world saying I want to you don't be fake and That's where the media and everyone else is playing up on this I think history will look back at this and everything else and say wow What was going on really and I think there has to be an academic Scientific approach to entering the space and hoping that my passion for me for the next, you know as long as God puts me on this planet is to do the academic research to show and Document what people are actually doing that's fantastic if people want to learn more about you And by the way, before I even say that and free pitch I appreciate this I think you and I may be two of the last people here that actually doing business with Talking here goes in the background He even came here at the end where the conference is closed. We can get this video to see if he hit a polls That's why but if someone wants to learn more about you, you know, how could they do that? Hi, yeah www.robby Singh calm Ravi si ngh calm but I really (20/34)
encourage people to sign up on social pay me for the drop that's coming out But more importantly social pay me I think will be a game changer for everyone free economics. So social p a y me.com So that's it. Thank you so much for joining us. I really appreciate doing this interview this late with everything going on I really appreciate thank you Pretty exciting stuff. I Know and if teas are difficult to understand I Know there's a lot of BS of this industry but I also know that There's billions flowing into NFT platforms and projects and this money is not coming from like kids in crypto and speculating and stuff like that It's coming from the biggest and best venture capitalists in the world These are people who are early investors in almost every big-name technology company that you see today The ones even with trillion dollar violations. They were some of the first investors in Facebook Twitter coinbase top crypto projects These are the guys that invest in coinbase in 2012 when the (21/34)
valuation was like 50 million and it came out at whatever 60 70 80 billion. Yes, it has come down, but these guys don't care Because they're in they're cheap They get first look at the best stuff and they tell most of the time they say no They do say yes it's usually a good investment for these guys and They're all investing almost across the board NFTs Web 3 the metaverse And this is a smart my this is like a super smart money So we're in the middle creating tons of educational material content NFTs in the metaverse It's gonna include videos not just of me but from the smartest people industry who I'm meeting like dr. Singh But tons of people are coming to us and for me That's what I want to bring in front of you to show you what we're seeing Where I'm investing why I'm going all-in in a market where I know you're seeing a terrible CPI. Holy shit. The markets come down It's been a crappy week we've gone up and we just gave back all those gains are we gonna hit the lows again? We're (22/34)
gonna kick, you know, it's difficult fine. This is something that you need to prepare for you need to start investing There's a reason why the big money is flowing in in one of the worst markets in decades Easily in decades, I mean you don't see it's not often where you have a global recession the feds still raising rates They're usually lowering rates Trying to spur economic growth. There's growth is stopped It's gonna get a lot worse and this market where yes It's gonna be a great time for investments and things like that and that's fine There's certain things that are going to work. I'm gonna bring those to you But these are the areas that we're going all in on These are the people were partnering with these are people that we're talking to you're gonna see a lot of partnerships occurs in research With a lot of these great people that have massive massive followings because they know that hey We need a guy from Wall Street that people trust Because we have some great projects and my (23/34)
job is to find those great projects and bring you the good stuff and the good people Because if you look at crypto, like I said from the day one day one I covered it in crypto Told you 90% of the stuff I look at is garbage 10% is absolutely amazing at one time the average gain that in our portfolio is the average was over 600% Yes, a lot of stuff has gotten crushed But you could see the returns that you could generate in this industry Because billions is flowing in again metaverse NFTs web3 projects during the worst years You need to start educating yourself on these trends whether it's through me whether it's through somebody else. That's fine Because this industry if you're looking at web3 if you're looking at these things that we're talking about It's not like cloud 5g AI the trench you hear about right? These are industries where insiders big money has mostly access to get into these trends early That's what they were doing in AI. Especially most of these companies are being bought (24/34)
out. How many pure AI companies? Do you know that are publicly traded? I Mean, there's companies that have AI capabilities, but they're not pure AI companies So the private companies that got bought by all the major technology companies right away You Don't have access to these visual investors 5g you really don't oh, you know These companies have come out and they're getting to find until about early super super early same thing with cloud and These guys were invested so early before most people knew what cloud was Probably a good five years before people know how it was it's different most of the big-money Wall Street They still don't understand NFTs and they definitely don't send understand the metaverse. I saw that this week I Mean just look at my Twitter Afrin Curzio, I'm gonna follow me follow me If not, don't again a very controversial and I like to push buttons on and have fun with it but man, just the shit that I was seen on CNBC from Just a story that's being told out there. (25/34)
Well, I don't see everyone wearing these big glasses. It's not about glasses You're not gonna wear glass. You're not gonna wear these big headsets. No That's not what the metaverse is about And look how clunky the graphics are the graphics are million times better But this is about ownership and this is about what happened over the past couple of years that changed that changed our culture and It's gonna change our culture forever of what we saw during the political season during kovat And I haven't met then right if you look on a CDC site right now that's listed as a treatment for kovat Yet they almost ruined and tried to destroy Joe Rogan's career when he took that and said it worked for him I was reporting things on kovat and people were Drilling me when it had nothing to do with money. It had nothing to do with me I was just saying hey, you know, I have kids with you. This is what I'm hearing I'm fortunate enough to have a you know following you guys listening and you know people (26/34)
emailing me overseas and tell me what was going on before it even came to the US and then we look at politics and Regardless of what side you like or what we the United States is founded on freedom of speech. I Mean you have to be able to debate because there's one thing we could both agree on I wouldn't say the left and the far far right would agree on but most you know moderate Democrats and Republicans is we want the best for our children we can all agree on that and we want to leave This place when we go in a better place for our children and make the next generation better, right? Isn't that the ultimate goal? So, why don't we talk about climate change why don't we debate about about tough topics and back and forth We're in a world where you can't debate You're in a world where you better follow an agenda Especially if you work as an anchor for one of these companies you better support them You try being conservative the times you're fired. You're gone. Goodbye And remember what (27/34)
when the news channels used to have seriously on CNBC on Fox and CNN MSNBC is just gone They're gone. That's like the ultimate. I hate America channel. I want to kill everybody and shoot myself in the face channel I mean, holy cow I've never seen so much like anger and pissed off people in my life But even CNN Fox and you're looking at so many of these shows they used to bring on CNBC like people from both sides right used to be on conservative and and You know someone who's a liberal or or just and and have a talking point have the back and forth They used to be like that. It used to be like that. It was three years ago now It's just like we're just gonna bring on people to just jam our message down your freaking throat. I Mean, there's no like there's nobody coming on just giving you a different opinion or suggesting something else I mean that is not healthy That's not how you know, we got to where we are and you know, the most powerful country greatest country in the world But we (28/34)
all saw this and getting how does this factor in? Well, the metaverse this is this is what factors into the metaverse it's the freedom This is why crypto was created because there's not trust. This is why Bitcoin was created. There's no trust in the system We don't trust our politicians We need another currency now. You seen the blockchain now you're seeing NFTs, you know having records of everything that you have right there That's your stamp of approval. Nobody can change it This is the ledger. It doesn't have to be kept at a bank that's gonna charge you fees You get a chance to create whatever you want or say whatever you want or do whatever you want You don't have to worry about it That's what the internet was about. That's the metaverse. It's not this freaking clunky system of people like oh my god They're gonna play a big video game and hang out. No, just people are not getting it at all But you know who's starting to get it. The venture capitalist is definitely getting it Wall (29/34)
Street starting see fidelity Fidelis now offering crypto and Bitcoin black rock their Aladdin system That's software that everybody's on money managed services. It's 21 trillion dollars in assets 22 trillion in assets on the management They just partner with coinbase to give them access to crypto It's coming but for individual investors you see you have the chance to get in very very early here And I'm not telling you to sell everything and go in but it's 5% of your capital needs to be dedicated to the space Just 5% Just like 5% was the uranium 5% to gold and 5% I mean you look at gold wasn't do good But 5% whatever maybe it's 10% technology in large-cap and that you know Just surge and provided you amazing returns for 10 years. Why gold did shit now uranium is doing well You know, you want to be diversified in certain areas and speculate in certain areas This is an area where that 5% if you get this right could be worth 5 X the size of the rest of your 95% of your portfolio Where (30/34)
people are speculating in small caps that are already publicly traded companies that come out some of them at billion-dollar valuations Where a lot of the growth already took place? That's the market we live in with SPACs and all this bullshit the road shows and crazy valuations that came out of In crypto you could invest in the ground floor of a lot of these companies and this is what I want to present to you I'm gonna be continue to bring guys that dr. Singh Just great great names in crypto people that invested in bored apes when it just you look at that blog post And one guy that I was talking to was in his blog post. He's like tell him to buy bored apes NFTs when they were like a few hundred dollars thousand dollars He's like you need to buy this stuff at $800. You need to get a hold of some of these I mean some of them going for millions now These are guys that early investors in this stuff and laughing as you know Other people are getting in so late into these bullshit trends, (31/34)
but these are the people I want to bring in front of you This is the stuff I want to educate you on and is there a learning curve? Yes as you get older Do you want to learn more? No, you hate learning new shit, right? You just settle your wage you want to sit in your chair and watch TV programs and whatever Try to get out of that Because this is an area that's very exciting right now. We've done the research. We've been in it. We're spending money I'm fully invested in this thing. I'm not just talking shit here, but this is an area that's very very exciting again Even if you don't want to look at the stuff that we're creating Educate yourself on this sector. You could find some stuff out there. Be careful the sites that you look at But a lot of people want to work with us we're gonna bring a lot of these big names to you in lots of interviews lots of educational content and Open up those questions and start doing live chats. This way everyone could participate you could ask lots of (32/34)
questions We could bring on you know, really cool people If everyone's an idiot or a troll we can kick them off immediately again Just things that we want to do to help the community because once those communities are built just like it's a cop the podcast that we have And Wall Street on club these you have those groups and those communities are extremely extremely powerful That's what we're looking to build here And right now it is it's starting to get very powerful with the contacts that we have the interviews I have the people that work going to get a lot of fun and continue to bring interviews like this to you Let me know what you think. Can I say this all times podcast about you know about me So, you know you thought of that interview and everything. I just said and Frank curves of research calm that's Frank at curbs of research calm really appreciate all support and And For those of you who are freebies I'll see you next week those of you who subscribe to one of our services and (33/34)
pay for some of our research I'll see you tomorrow frankly speaking special podcast only goes out to you So sending you questions as always love answering them those people see tomorrow everyone else. Have a great weekend. Enjoy football I'll see you next week. Take it Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Regulators' crypto crackdown is backfiring.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's March 1st Now Frank courage us the Washington pockets will bring the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So I'm about to say may get me a little bit of trouble, but I think the world should know it I think it's very important We're doing business with Bank of America our corporation since we started this business five years ago and Bank of America last week Tied to send me a letter saying that they would no longer do business with courage your research found that interesting maybe it's cause we Talk about crypto, but CNBC talks about crypto. Maybe it's cause we invested in TCG Yet, you know Nike investing in roblox or other major retailing companies are Investing in roblox to build a metaverse puts some par and how just set of revenue is derived by the same thing (1/34)
over the past five years, which is subscriptions and The letter they sent to us Right letter. They didn't call me didn't call me personally sent the letter But I said they would no longer do business with us and we restrict deposits on your accounts I said you have 30 days to transfer everything out of Bank of America and in this letter They write a number to call it says we're here if you have any questions So I called it and I want you to listen To exactly what's on this recording If you have been referred to this phone number It is because we are unable to open new accounts or add one or more applicants to your existing account This decision cannot be overridden If you have recently received a letter stating your account or accounts are being closed The reason for this is that Bank of America made a business decision to close the account We have determined you operate in the business time We elect not to service at Bank of America the decision to close the account will not be (2/34)
reconsidered Press one to speak to an agent So when I press the number one, it actually goes to a voicemail so I don't let you talk to anyone But imagine your bank just send you a letter out of the blue saying hey, you know what we're no longer doing business with you We're not gonna provide a reason we're not gonna talk to you about it You can't talk to us about it can't defend yourself. No matter what this decision will not be reversed It's pretty effing crazy Now we're fine as a business. We set up with a mid-tier bank or perfectly fine Like I said earlier Bank of America sucked. Anyway, we're looking to move right the prize good rates charges massive amount of fees We're lots of problems with them lots of problems with them But again, we have everything integrated payroll your corporation everything integrated him It's just you know, we'll get to and get to wanted to get to it after tax season Should've been a little bit better But they didn't care they didn't care when they sent (3/34)
this out they didn't say hey you have three months They said nope you have a month So I started making some calls talking to people within the industry and the bigger point here All the major banks have been instructed by the regulators the government to shut down all crypto operations So Basically said hey if you don't then we're gonna find you and the hammer is going to come down You can look at a Wall Street Journal had a great article about this Everything always gets leaked first at Wall Street Journal the Fed all the regulations stuff gets leaked to Wall Street Journal first This is from like four or five days ago. They've been doing this over the past Month or so, but highlights how big banks are backing away from crypto companies And how it follows the FTX blob which by the way had nothing to do with crypto This was fraud where person side take customer deposits through its brokerage the trading arm right that platform and Illegally distribute them to its hedge fund which was (4/34)
losing billions and billions of dollars right this is classic fraud Anyway, nobody really cared that much Because FTX was huge paying everybody including famous athletes to market their brand They're allowed to go in a hill and discuss how regulation would help the industry because why? They would donate billions and billions and billions of dollars lobbying dollars To politicians mostly those big donations went to Democrats So of course this crackdown did not happen before the donations were given right. This is pre midterm election cycle You look at FTX they filed for bankruptcy just shortly after midterm elections, and then all the stuff started coming out perfect timing Right you're not gonna do before No way not during the midterm election. That's much more important right, but it's not just the major banks The government started going after almost everyone who's currently doing business have law of operation in crypto If you look at signature Bank one of the biggest crypto banks (5/34)
in terms of assets They just announced a had to cut ties with finance the international part Silvergate no longer accepting accounts everybody's been saying that's a fraud for probably six months now. No smoking gun no fraud people are removing assets The stock is going down because people are worried that if I have your assets in there if there's an FTX situation I may lose my money, so you can't blame them, but fraud That exposure of eight billion dollars to FTX and what do they do they sold debt securities They sold other things a little bit for a loss, and they paid it off They're operational doesn't matter It's my say Herbalife where it's a Ponzi scheme. It's a Ponzi scheme well eventually It's not that difficult to prove that it's a Ponzi scheme It's not too difficult to prove this illegal operations, and it's been six months now Have we seen a smoking gun I haven't I? Hear all the short sellers mentioned that they have it they have it have all this information I have it I have (6/34)
for six months. They recently got blown out of the position. Yes, it crashed tremendously This is something we generate over thousand percent returns on in our newsletter For selling it lately last I think was last year. There's less than 12 months Just took off We talking about you know Silvergate and also signature And I guess this how our government which includes what the Federal Reserve federal deposit insurance Corporation the office of the comptroller of the currency right those are three major ones and even the SEC It's getting involved right this is how they plan to deal with crypto Not by providing laws but by picking and choosing Who could do business who doesn't instead of actually get providing those guidelines that everyone can follow So a grayscale is about to go to court right I think this decision is gonna be made the SEC And they said listen. I don't care much of course. We are going after them and will appeal appeal appeal appeal a Supreme Court they just want to (7/34)
know why the SEC approved several Bitcoin future products, which are competitors to grayscale and Have not approved grayscale to actually launch a Bitcoin ETF They haven't provided sufficient reasons for that You guys you see they say hey the guidelines are there for everyone I think they pretty much checked off all the guidelines whether you believe in that or not In terms of grayscale and what type of product it is but again There's guidelines you have to check off, and I don't think they're going to court if they didn't check off all those guidelines, but why? Why are they picking and choosing? What do we see and this has been happening over the past four to six weeks guys? Finance just to spend US dollar transfers cracking just force to pay a major fine 30 million for its staking business I understand that part of the business and why you going after when it comes to staking so a lot of these companies were Voyager BlockFi Celsius a lot of bullshit around these industries (8/34)
Interviewed the CEO BlockFi I asked him I remember asking him that you know How do you able to pay the higher interest rates? I think this is before my interest rates where you can get you know five percent On a six-month t-bill where rates are now Because when it rates was zero they're offering five percent seven percent twelve percent hike and he couldn't really answer. I didn't understand it Why in our newsletters we never advised anyone to stake ever. I just didn't understand it I'm not gonna recommend things. I don't understand I get that part of it, but they just settled now Coinbase that they're suspending BUSD. That's Binance's stablecoin And the SEC if you notice has been putting out articles everyplace Going into that media contacts showing how hey, you know, we have our eyes on stablecoins Really you have your eyes on stablecoins. That's where you see the most risk stablecoins This 3,000 plus probably 5,000 plus utility tokens where most should have their founders and CEOs (9/34)
locked up I know because I did the research on a lot of these They raise money through a utility token and investors buying into that offering Expect to make money on that token, which is the exact definition of a security. That's why we launched a security token And our token is just like a stock Regulations there everything is checked going through guidelines It's not crypto it's a security token is a digital asset It's much different than a utility token where you have no information or nothing But if you look at these other companies, nobody knows where the money is that they raised They have new cars and houses Most of these tokens their only value is tied to their utility feature For Binance that's using that token to lower your fees or you could book trips and buy different things They have hundreds and hundreds of uses. That's utility that creates demand When you use that token it gets burned that's fine. That's the way the system works 90% of these do not have any utility (10/34)
features meaning that token is absolutely worthless absolutely worthless Also, you can't find any info on the company how much the insiders still own what's going on? They provided this whole outlook and these updates a lot of these guys have taken that money and actually invested it in other crypto ideas Which they didn't outline when they were raising money I mean some of these companies don't even provide a picture of the executive teams. They'll have like a link to a LinkedIn account And when you click it, it's like a face of an NFT. They don't have a lot of followers They'll just have like a brief description on what the company does. That's it. Maybe that much of a background We know who these people are where to find them. You try to do searches try to do searches on some of these people Try to do a search on me and Google try to do a search on anyone you see in CBC and Google You'll find a whole profile everything Your reviews positive negatives people writing about you if (11/34)
you've been in the industry for a long time, that's great You could do your own research again. All of you should do your own research on me before you listen to me Do you do diligence that's your job try to do diligence on some of these companies you can't I know Don't bother looking I've looked for you It's just remarkable but stable coins are the issue. Let's go up to stay but it just shows you how much they don't know about the industry With that said trying to shut down crypto at this stage by going to the banks kind of like we do marijuana kind of like We did with gambling and things like that. Well, you don't know what the hell to do the banks. I mean the banks don't provide I mean some of them may provide capital but you can't use your debit account to purchase marijuana where it's not approved on the federal Level but it's proven state level same thing when it comes to You know different gambling sites a lot of you enjoy being able to gamble not just horse racing or fantasy (12/34)
football But actually betting on games through I think 34 states Florida's one of them that you can't And that's fine But a lot of companies when you fill out new accounts or brokers firms or whatever they say you don't do any business in marijuana you don't do any business in Gambling and no not at all But trying to shut down crypto at this stage and putting it in that category and I mentioned this analogy and it's relevant again It's like telling my teenage daughter stop dating a new boyfriend with the ten tattoos in the motorcycle I mean she's gonna end up marrying him a week later, right? They do exactly what you tell them not to do this is the younger generation that grew up with this Millennials are now 40 years old They're used to Bitcoin. They understand the digital age. Most of the kids that are growing up on roblox Those are the kids that are growing up using Minecraft or fortnight their developers. They don't even know it That's the future watch your kids when they're on (13/34)
these sites. They're developing They could pretty much write code if they want. It won't be difficult for them to learn But ensure trying to take something that goes against especially the biggest institutions of the world central banks Who have unlimited spending Politicians don't give a shit about anyone. They have no accountability. They'll spend money. Look how much money is being funded to Ukraine right now More than what Russia is paying for their war. Are you kidding me? Do you approve it? Do I approve it? Should we help them? Are you can debate whether we should help them or not? And why don't we just go to war Russia? I mean providing the weapons is like someone providing you would you know about to fight someone and and You know a guy gives him a baseball bat and a gun to fight me. I Mean, aren't they in the fight? Kind of you supplying them But this amount of money Going out of our country with the problems that we have in our country that could be solved. I Mean, come on. (14/34)
Give me a break. No accountability. It doesn't matter doesn't matter what you think. Nobody cares politicians Don't do what we want supposed to so democracy is right. We hire people to represent their constituents, but they don't we know that Most of them don't and you can't they have no choice They probably go in as independent being like hey, I'm gonna make changes and then their party goes to them and says hey If you don't vote with us, you're fucked. You're not gonna get funding. You're not gonna get anything ever Never be on your side with anything or we can give you this this this this this this this and this If you vote party lines and within a week you're voting party lines you have to you don't have a choice That's our political system very easily corruptible. It's why China when you have one person in charge They look at our government say wow This is pretty easy to corrupt with all these greedy motherfuckers on the other side That really don't have to answer to someone even (15/34)
when you catch them with things and nobody really cares So it's the way our system is set up is a greatest thing in the world, but it's easily corruptible Very easily you could see that with the spending and what we're doing. How can we never blame China? Remember getting kicked off when right now we were seeing the truth that which is a fact and something that you know again I was reporting Thanks to my contacts in January 2020 before Kobe even came here how it came out of Wuhan and hearing about a Wuhan lab and how this happened and right Away, you know the media was just through people offline Do not say that it's not a China virus. It's not that everyone knows where it came from There's a reason why the who didn't was and no one none scientists anyone and doctors were allowed China to let anyone in and the who still came out and said wow, we love how China is handling this situation and It's not from China even though they were not a lot China did not allow them to go into the (16/34)
country to investigate to try to help people where Maybe we could have stopped this before million Americans died seven million people died Now we know the truth and still we're not saying anything like hey is any are we coming out against China at all? No, we're not allowed to everything's Russia blame Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia crazy But a lot has to do with this central government this power and people have less and less control But when you're looking at the reckless spending and this is just not in the US but across all nations Look what's going on China right now How much they trying to inflate this mark their market right now and how much debt? They have how much trouble they're in you're not hearing that you're not hearing the real stories Just say oh China's opening everything's okay. Everything's not okay in China You could buy their stocks and enjoy the trend enjoy what everyone says and they're gonna lie about their numbers But be very very very very careful It's (17/34)
hard to do research because a lot of the information is suppressed especially by Google If you have good contacts and you really see what's going on in China, which I report You can hear a lot of especially Wall Street unplugged premium. You can see why everyone is up in arms and pissed off But If you're looking at digital, this is the future Bitcoin a theorem digital country Currencies these this is the future. This is where we're going. It's already integrated The more you try to take it away the stronger it gets Notice what Bitcoin is it continues to go higher the 24,000 well-offered slows of 15,000 It's why Bitcoin adoption continues to grow with the amount of Bitcoin stored in a lightning Network payment protocol just hit an all-time high 20 amount of dresses on the Bitcoin network continues to grow which is now 44 million record high 44 million These trends are happening now They're happening now as regulations are clamping even more You see more adoption and it makes sense (18/34)
They're gonna try to take something away from you More someone tells you notice something especially something that's like this. That's this innovative The more people are gonna want it and adopt it and while you look at the regulation the BS the government is still on the Banks and by the way, it's on the banks. Most of the major banks not brokers firms like fidelity Coinbase not asset managers like BlackRock. That's different. We're talking about banks the banking laws So fidelity is like hey, we're cool. Coinbase is cool. They're regulated. It's amazing how a company like galaxy digital. They won't even let Go public they did it coin bases Okay, but again, what are the rules? Galaxy's amazing company that company should be doing much much better But they're on a bulletin board trying to get an asset they can't they've been trying to do it for two years They got hit as hard as everybody else with crypto had a little exposure FTX But now they have I mean you have to see some of the (19/34)
moves in cryptos even our portfolio We had one that was down 65% so 55% Give several names that have taken off tremendously last five six names. We're seeing big reversals our Bitcoin position. Not Bitcoin is up Tremendously Ethereum's up tremendously because we recommend that early 10x. I believe we have Binance is up 20x for us get an early investment I mean, could you see those types of gains anyplace else? But you seen strength in the real names within this industry when it comes to regulation the BS the government's doing I tell him no matter what Crypto company it is whether it's compliant whether it's even crypto company or not like cursor research. We're not a crypto company We talk about cryptos. I'm talking about Bitcoin We're not crypto company hundred-star review comes from subscriptions. We invested in TCG Maybe that triggered something or whatever, but for us not to be able to call them and say hey, what are you doing too bad? This is what we decided no questions asked (20/34)
think about that for a minute That's fucking insane, right? It's insane when you think about it. We're able to switch operations go to another bank We were in good standing we have you know Very little charge offs, but everything's integrated and takes a little while we got that done within a week a lot of banks would love to do business with us because you know we do a lot of business generate revenue and Wires fees investments everything across the board using their credit cards and stuff and any Business would love to have us we're in good standing But to have to stop doing business with them just because an algorithm triggered something what algorithm triggered us and what a joke I'm thinking hopefully it's a step where the government Will regulate crypto the right way right to make sure It's safe. Everyone knows where their money is you're not worried about hackers You sign up to etrade Schwab wherever you go fidelity online accounts. You're not worried about it. They're doing all (21/34)
the checks in the background You're not worried about anything. That's the way crypto has to be And it's light years from where it was three years ago four years ago. It's easy I'll put up an account on coinbase and trade. It's very very easy. It's not that difficult They used to take weeks and weeks and weeks Don't take that long anymore, but that's out what I was hoping. Okay. We've seen this regulation but to restrict all major banks from doing business or crypto companies as If they were marijuana companies gambling companies, I mean that that's a complete joke Especially What's happening with gambling notice how gambling right if you know is ten years ago even as much as like five six years ago No, it's how the NFL Major League Baseball NBA all against gambling. You can't gamble no gambling. No gambling to get they had these commercials They were you know regulated to have commercials saying how bad is the gamble now? Look at them they have commercials Mid-game promoting if you go (22/34)
to this website right now and fan duel Will give you a 20% discount or a free trade and They'll go to the the announcer and say well, who do you like in a second half? Well, I think LeBron James gonna score at least 50. They're actually promoting the shit out of this, right? So they don't care about the people. They just know they can now make money off of it So they're gonna promote the hell out of it but the difference is That's gambling. I mean marijuana fine. You want to smoke it do whatever you want People have the right to do whatever they want feel good and relaxed I don't care more people to smoke pot the better less angry people would be that's fine We're talking about an industry With the greatest innovations that we've seen in the past 20 years are coming from I mean you're looking at Dow Dow is one of the biggest trends of the world. This is governance This is voting you don't really have those rights when you're a shareholder you think you do but you don't You do when (23/34)
you're black rock and you have these massive companies been around for 30 years and those shares are distributed but most even mid-tier you have big owners and a lot of them like Under Armour have structures in place where you know Their shares count for three four shares of this class and this class we you know, you can't vote You can't do anything. They have total control It's very rare that you see it. You'll see some some of these, you know you notice how when you have Elliott management right a lot of these hedge funds Come hostile. They try to convince other members that hey the company's not being run that well I mean those shares are distributed and it's almost always with large caps bigger companies We don't have one or two shareholders only, you know a big amount of shares unless you're what Vanguard black rock Those are big companies. They own everything convinced them and the next thing, you know, you get what is it engine whatever number it is climate change person on the (24/34)
board of Exxon probably trying to Make sure they don't drill as much That's when stuff like that happens, but Dow allows everyone to imagine if everyone had their own vote And you for everything for anything that you wanted for any kind of measure, you know politicians or whatever that we were able to vote That's what's going on crypto. The majority of people have to approve this in order to get a protocol passed It's an unbelievable trend go look it up. Look at ancient Horowitz. They wrote a massive paper on this Oh how this is the future. This is coming out of crypto Look at a metaverse you could tell me to determine however you want Online gameplay, you know, just another social media aspect more interaction I mean one of the largest companies in the world change its name to meta Now you're not letting banks do business. I mean are you letting Facebook do business with your banks with your major banks? I mean, they're pretty engulfed into crypto in the metaverse. What about DeFi (25/34)
decentralized finance NFTs? Look at the volume of T's over the past few months absolutely surging real projects a lot of bullshit in that industry But now there's real projects one that I invested in that I'm up 12 13 times on it's called killer bears I talked to management. I love what they're doing. They're building an amazing brand and providing value. I said, okay, I'm gonna invest And I'll put on on it But a lot of people getting crushed and this is in September when the market if you're looking for since September till now It's probably down a lot But there are great projects where again like a stock you talk to the manager and you talk to them I'm like wow, this guy didn't talk about money. He's not looking to to raise any cash This guy just has a brilliant idea that is all in he's got developers. He's building this this Massive community that's awesome that posts all the time that now has doctors and wealthy individuals in it Find like the pump-and-dump garbage that you see in (26/34)
so many NFTs and stuff like that No, and this gives you ownership actual ownership of a product like a patent on the blockchain. That's NFTs. It's massive The trend you won't be able to stop They're coming out against crypto these banks why cuz it threatened the old way of doing business as bankers Which is what charging massive massive massive amount of fees on everyone I mean, this is disruptive technology and by trying to limit it and restrict it. You know what you can't and You won't be able to this isn't the way they just don't know it. They're too dumb when it comes to this stuff That's why I took them so long regulate again things. Maybe I shouldn't be saying Let's see what happens believe me I'll be reporting all the time on this because I speak my mind and we're independent You're only gonna make this industry stronger And Now only you're making this industry stronger look at the places that are adopting whether it's the Middle East whether it's Hong Kong places around the (27/34)
world These countries are integrating crypto They're gonna be much much much stronger than the u.s. Adopting these technologies And the u.s. Is being left behind especially when you're telling the banks recently that hey, you know what cut ties of crypto We're a great example of this and when I started talking even to my lawyer everybody else My lawyer said listen, I I work with a bunch of businesses and several of them within crypto and they all said the same thing Then they got completely shut down and they have to move their accounts in place. It's just a blanket statement by the government How crazy is that not looking at crypto companies where a lot of them is shit, but some of them are real But this is where the innovation is taking place. You saw a lot of bankruptcies, which is good a massive wreck last year Which is great for the market get rid of a lot of bullshit Which you see and almost every major trend going back for the past 50 to 100 years Get this hype cycle you get the (28/34)
bullshit you get the assholes trying to make money and Then you get a complete wipeout and the ones that survive turn out to be Microsoft Google Facebook Amazon That's the way business works, but that's why you've seen the strength in crypto right now For the first time really you seen strength in crypto where the market is falling We've had a bad February at least the last three weeks of February You're not used to seeing that right usually hey all assets are going higher and Risky assets are going higher small caps are going higher That's why you saw crypto run up off of its lows along with you know The Nasdaq and the Russell surging but look how much the Nasdaq pulled back. Look how much Russell has pulled back Look what Bitcoin is we need a high 25,000. It's a 24,000 Trying to look see if I get a quote on CNBC right now. I Expect that trend to continue now that they're trying to shut them down They're not going to be able to but I think this trend of seeing Bitcoin go higher and (29/34)
higher higher You're gonna see it through 2023 and well into the future. This is the future of technology This is the younger generation of what they want. They hate the current system They should hate the current system because it's a lot of bullshit out there. We could have central banks and spending and craziness They want something different. They want something that they can own. They want something they can believe in and that's Bitcoin. That's a theory and A lot of those major tokens have gotten killed that are down 89% they're up a hundred two hundred percent off their lows in a past couple of months much more than the overall market Because those are the survivors the survivors are gonna do very very well going forward A lot of those names can be found our portfolio, which has really been kicking ass Yes, if you looked at it six months ago, you'd want to puke We're up over 600% the average position our portfolio was up 600% in our crypto intelligence newsletter And we saw some (30/34)
names down 70 80% we took small positions in them. That's why we didn't have stops small positions Usually we don't go higher than 6% on a position the motion could lose on a position And now over the past few months. I mean a lot of these things have absolutely surged Especially last five or six names are all up a ton, which is great. This is what we want to see whether the storm and Watch and invest into good technologies to good names of ones that are transparent to real companies That innovating that are providing amazing software amazing technology and that's a lot of names in that portfolio But this is why you're seeing strengthen crypto They tell someone no and it's this big to me more adoption more people are gonna want to get into it And that's what you see Again, I expect this trend Bitcoin going higher steadily higher be back and forth But I don't think it's gonna depend on the market anymore It's not gonna be moving or you know high beta moves higher than the market and (31/34)
moves lower than the market when it goes down I think you're gonna see a steady trend A month after month after month of just steady going higher and higher and higher and believe me This will be over a hundred thousand. I don't know when It could be three years. It could be five years but it's gonna consistently go higher and higher as more and more people adopt it especially with all the shit that we're seeing out of every central bank and Our politicians across the world not just in the US With that said love this episode Wall Street unplugged, I think you'll really love Wall Street unplugged premium The Wall Street premium is my members only podcast where I dive even deeper into this week's events Well do even more than tell you what's moving these markets tell you specifically What moves you can make today? So this is gonna be about trading Put big money in your pocket right away due to the inconsistencies. I see daily in the market I'm talking about specific investment ideas. I'm (32/34)
recommending and tracking each week that I believe would be impacted directly by everything. I Just talked about today plus you're gonna get the chance to go even further down the rabbit hole with me and My co-host was Daniel Creech as we discuss which of these week's trends could turn into massive windfalls Could the big trends that we see look in horizon also the news were picking up from our network of insiders Which has gotten bigger and bigger thanks to you and so many people Listening to this podcast in over a hundred countries and you get a chance to talk to me directly in my special Ask me anything Q&A session All that and a lot more like premium views with world leaders and finance technology industry and politics This is all part of Wall Street unplugged premium and becoming a member is super simple and super cheap So I don't over to wsu offer comm to check it all out sign up today and you won't miss a thing. That's wsu offer comm Hey guys. Thanks so much for listening (33/34)
question comments. I'm here for you Email me Frank Curzio research calm this Frank at Curzio research comm Happy March everyone. Glad spring is here. Well, at least in Florida. It's here firstly starts in a few weeks Although some of you are getting snow across the country I'll be sure to send you a picture on my Twitter account at Frank Curzio me my pool drinking a cocktail So you guys could really really hate me all seriousness Have a great week be careful in this crazy market stream instruments volatile I'll see you guys next week. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The 'necessary' risks to make a fortune in crypto.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's going out there. It's Tuesday March 29th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Have to start off by saying Rock Chalk Jayhawk Final four Which is awesome along with Villanova, North Carolina and Duke And we heard all the talks of upsets for this tournament She is different as we're gonna see more parity among those mid major conferences And what do we have arguably the best four programs in the entire league over at least the past ten years probably last 30 years If you want to throw Villanova in there But these are the best programs in the final four. I mean all of them have at least three championships each That's the first time you've had those teams as final four in the history of (1/34)
the final four For Lenovo probably the most final fours. I think over the past six years was it three champions two championships But these are all great teams great programs So it should be a lot of fun and that North Carolina Duke game guys. I mean, it's gonna be special I'm gonna say that it's gonna be the most watched game in the history of the NCAA You couldn't come up with a better script. You have coach K retiring greatest coach ever Arguably almost across all sports and Then this year what happened? I mean these two teams hate each other their schools hate each other This isn't like oh well, we have respect. No, they hate each other hate each other No What from the car like Duke knows that and to the point where Duke when their first meeting when they play they play twice and sometimes They play in a tournament. They didn't play in their conference tournament this year But they play the first time Duke winning at North Carolina But then North Carolina went to Duke and they blew (2/34)
them out on their own court And that was coach K's last home game of his career which they loved so now playing and These the first time they're playing in the NCAA tournament in history. Usually they're on other brackets and the great seeds, but It's gonna be a great game doesn't get better than that And then we have Kansas against Villanova, which should also be a great game despite Villanova's best player Yes, I said best player and people like glass. He's great as player of the year big East last two years Justin Moore is a second leading scorer the team plays the most minutes He's the best defender by Molly covers the best player on the other team and shuts them down almost every game. They're not deep They're only six deep now. They're five deep so Yeah, they don't have that deep bench But I have a feeling I really wish they were at full strength because both these teams are full strength at the Kansas I seen both of them play Kansas is better. Not that Villanova can't beat them, (3/34)
but I have a feeling that Kansas may play down a little bit Be a little less focused so that games gonna be a lot closer I think people think even though pretty much their best player on that team. I'm not taking anything against Kong less But he's amazing. But that kid is really the engine he's like Man, I mean, there's so many great players like that in the NBA just it's not just role-playing, but he's also a scorer He's a rebound assists everything. So yeah, it should be pretty cool and What Kansas getting I've never been to a Final Four, but I would be going to the Final Four since Kansas is in it But my daughter's making a confirmation this weekend, which I'm very very very proud of But I may go to the final that's if you know Kansas beats Villanova, but if Duke does get in that ticket is gonna be an absolute fortune So I'm probably gonna get too many friends to go Because I don't have many Kansas fans. Maybe I get North Carolina Duke fan to go but that ticket is gonna cause a (4/34)
fortune So it's gonna be coach K's very last game before Retiring but I may go if you are going or you plan on going to the championship game Kansas does make it send me an email Frank because the research calm I may go with you because it's gonna be hard to get Anyone else to go if you're not a fan. They're gonna pay a lot of money for that ticket I'm willing to do that on Monday fly out there and Sunday night Let me know Frank has a research calm now. Let's move on It's interesting to see what's taking place in the market and the volatility Where when the market pulls back what you haven't seen in a few days But when the market pulls back, there's industries that money's clearly flowing into So it's not some massive sell-off in every single sector and stocks which we saw in January and into February Especially when Ukraine Russia really started heating up that was on top of the Fed going crazy and saying well also It's not transitory inflation and we're gonna go crazy and raise rates (5/34)
like like nuts, right? That was in November But we saw everything get hit it didn't matter if it's Bitcoin gold didn't any every single thing got hit banks got everything But now if you've seen over the past couple weeks when the market pulls back gold has been a safe haven uranium agriculture many commodities including oil and These sectors seem to get hit when the Nasdaq does well So if you're looking at this market and where we're going to be Because we still have tons of problems inflation is out of control supply chain issues are worse today than they've been Any single time since COVID any single time since COVID? and again I tracked this stuff and the this is they have satellite imagery of Goldman Sachs you have IHS market which just got bought by SP 500 those guys been tracking this 25 years Both of them are saying their latest reports which are weekly which I read and I get it's horrible It's it's horrible right now. So You're looking at earnings. I can't see earnings (6/34)
exploding Although you're gonna see more buybacks this year than in the history of the markets It's gonna be more than a trillion dollars are expecting I think it might hit a trillion last year But it's gonna outpace that's just just flush with cash on balance sheets and they're gonna use to buy back their stock I don't know if that's gonna be enough To keep a lot of these stock prices higher some of them are gonna do Well, like I said, it's not all sectors. I love the separation cuz I provide the stock pickers market But the two sectors I love the most right now if you're looking at the next year two years five years even into the future Two sectors its banks and crypto and Why is that because that's where trillions of dollars are going to flow into and starting with the banks they make a fortune off of higher rates and If you want to know how much and I covered this a little bit last week But state tree came out and said they're gonna make 25 million each quarter for every 25 basis (7/34)
point hike Let's put those numbers perspective, which I didn't do last quarter last podcast which is last week So that's a hundred million dollars a year Right, if you multiply that again, that's for every 25 basis point hike you multiply that by five Which is expected this year right at least five rate hikes when I say five. I'm counting You know 25 basis point hikes. It could be a 50 that would be three instead of two, right? So they're expected 50 base point hikes going forward at least two more. So that's five It could be even more than that, but say if there's five rate hikes right 25 basis point increases five of them That's a hundred million dollars, right? So a hundred million dollars, which is expected this year now state street is talking five hundred million dollars in pre-tax earnings That's how much it would be with five rate hikes five hundred million pre-tax earnings Which cost almost zero to them? In terms of overhead or anything. They're doing the same exact thing They (8/34)
always did right five hundred million just getting five hundred million dollars in cash now to put that in perspective State Street earned three point two billion in pre-tax earnings So if you're looking at that five hundred million on top of that, that's fifteen percent growth in those earnings, which is likely Going to be if I had a guess over the next 12 months three times faster than The average S&P 500 company. That's how fast a tree for doing nothing and I'm not talking about all the other money They're the three point two billion. They generate this is free money to them free money So they do exactly what they're doing right now lending out money but only at higher rates and This is not fee income This isn't the fee income right? So that fee income that helped them generate three point two billion, right? This is interest income And if you're looking at the banks and you listen to what they're saying It is incredible because there's something very important. You need to know (9/34)
about banks and this is a hidden catalyst We know when streets go higher the spread routine. They make more money. We hear that all the time I'm gonna tell you something that you're not hearing you're not hearing out there with the banks Okay, if you were talking about I haven't read much about I've read it one report talk about this Okay, so banks capture that margin between what they borrow what they lend but with rates so low They generate little interest income over the past how many years so most of earnings we generate through fees Which is investment banking money management credit cards mortgages deposits. That's great They generate huge fees on that and record profits without the interest income Now the Fed is aggressively raising rates, which means all the banks are gonna start earning a lot more in interest income again Which I just explained here's The huge catalyst with banks So usually when the Fed has a tightening cycle and raises rates the saving rate for banks go up so (10/34)
that people keep their money There however banks are more flush with cash than they've ever been in the history of this industry So our rates are rising They do not plan on raising their rates on savings accounts. At least not this year. That's money They have to pay out. So by the way, if you keep it score at home, that's called deposit beta again fancy term Which means the margins a bank makes lending money minus the money it pays out on savings accounts So sell-side analysts they do great research But what they're gonna do is they're gonna compare this cycle is tightening cycle to the past major cycle We saw massive inflation, which is the 80s, right? That's how they model They always look at comps called comparative analysis this way you look at what happened in the past and this is how I'm based on my model in the future and then they Fix the numbers that come up with some kind of target price, right? That's what they do But They're gonna model for their margin to go up a certain (11/34)
percentage based on the last time we had massive inflation where we raised rates Aggressively like in the 80s. So this is when we had mortgage rates at 15% and the savings rate Which people don't talk about they said the mortgage rate. How could you pay that for the savings rate was 12% CDs were paying 18% back then so it wasn't a worst scenario if you had cash It was a great thing if you had cash, it was terrible if you had to borrow money with high interest rates. My point is Banks are not going to have to raise saving rates at least over the next 12 months They're flush with cash That means their margins are gonna explode like no other time in history Because they're basically getting tens of millions in free money simply by doing the same job. They've done for the past 50 years in other words hundreds of millions of dollars For mid to large cap banks that they're gonna generate at almost zero cost So there's a bank triumph Bank Corp, which I'm looking at all the banks and all the (12/34)
quotes from the banks I want you to listen to what they said. This is last one when they report earnings They mentioned this as we move into this what looks like a rising rate environment. We're in a situation That's pretty atypical with the amount of liquidity that the banking system in general has our competitors are flush with liquidity So I don't think any of us are going to be in a rush to be the first ones to start to raise deposit rates So I think early on it's gonna be fairly low longer term. It remains to be seen that means they're gonna make Excuse my language a shitload of money with interest rates higher, but they're not gonna have to raise that savings rate Which is money coming out of the bank, right? So if you look at that stifle Nicholas and I mentioned this last week as well their investment banker lender They said let me be clear. This is what they said is a month ago Let me be clear our base case calls for us to increase our net interest income in 2022 by close to (13/34)
150 million on balance sheet growth alone, right? So without rate hikes Then they go on to say if we get three rate increases That we expect and it's gonna be a lot more than three, but this ain't three that's what modeling for I should say beginning in March Right now our net interest income could possibly increase by approximately 250 million dollars And they say given a low compensation attached to net interest income meaning that they say right there We're not gonna have to spend money for more people or anything like that. There's low compensation, right? This would be a significant driver of a bottom line in 2022 This is not being factored into banks and they're still down well off their lows So guys, here's the plan. You're not gonna hear this out there. But here is the master plan. Okay? Not only should you have banks in your portfolio since you're gonna see massive earnings growth for at least the next 18 to 24 months But it's probably better to transfer some of the cash that (14/34)
you have in your bank Which is in checking savings account money market accounts skin with inflation you get wrecked Transfer that money and buy a large-cap bank with it You're gonna earn at least two and a half percent, right? That's the yield that they're paying. So I'm paying three to four percent but more importantly if you're keeping it at a bank if you're keeping your cash at a bank and They're not gonna raise deposit rates, right? I've seen this from several banks I'm gonna do it at least in the short term. That means you're gonna get destroyed absolutely destroyed by inflation However, if you take that money and buy a banking stock It puts it in your favor. It reverses it, right? So this allows you to take advantage of that massive inflation instead of getting hurt by it By buying the actual bank instead of keeping your money at a bank Of course is risk to owning stocks compared to just you know Having your cash in the savings account which makes you sleep at night and people (15/34)
don't understand how much they're losing with inflation inflation is out of control But there are risks. So don't throw all your cash into a banking site. We could have a crisis that everything gets killed Don't throw all of your cash in there Especially if you need to be liquid and you need it and again You could sell your stock in a bank and have that money probably within a day or two But for me personally, I'm putting 30% plus of my cash in banking stocks One of them I just recommended occurs your venture opportunity, which is actually a small cap named massive deposits Think it's about a three to point eight three percent yield, right? So massive deposit plans on lending a much higher rates waiting for this moment and roughly 70% of their assets are in two states I don't know two states Florida and Texas So those are two the best in terms of population growth and super low taxes. These guys have it right expecting this environment This isn't a boring stock. I'm looking to well, (16/34)
let me keep my money here and earn two point eight percent three percent Whatever to know the earnings growth. These are the new growth stocks The feds definitely raising rates these guys are gonna make an absolute fortune and that one negative they usually have a rising in straight environments They're not gonna have to raise those savings rates, which is money coming out of the banks right now because they're so liquid That's really interesting and I don't see anyone modeling for that Now crypto the other sector I like I don't know if I convince you with banks, but that's what I'm doing Just tell you what I'm doing. You don't have to do it. Whatever you go listen to me say this guy's not see has no idea whatever But crypto so bitcoins now up close to 40% from It's a day before Russia launch its invasion. So this is a These are January 21st 22nd, right? So that's when the US officially announced Russia will invade Ukraine That can best for the SP 500 over that time plane, which is up (17/34)
8% That's how much Bitcoin has outperformed the SP 500 Now, why is it rallying now over the past couple weeks? There's no coincidence I mean if you look at this month alone when you saw Biden's executive order, which is about three weeks ago Okay, I don't care if you like Biden. I don't care whatever it doesn't matter What he did is he opened up the floodgates for institutional money to come into America Okay, so not a coincidence after he made this last three weeks ago What do we see going become the first major bank to trade Bitcoin over the counter Cowen another large investment firm? Well, no boutique but but large so count very respectable company said it will soon allow institutional clients spot Bitcoin trading and Ray Dalio's Bridgewater if you're not familiar with that 150 billion in assets on the management largest hedge fund in the world said it's about to make An investment into a crypto fund all this news came after Biden announced that executive water We also had Terra (18/34)
which is a crypto that's a network behind a Luna token They're building a 10 billion dollar Bitcoin reserve fund to back its stable coin, which is important. That's the route with tether They want to look to see if it's backed by anything and they're not showing their books all these stable coins notice We've seen this across the board with a lot of stable coins not so much a tether. They're all starting to buy Bitcoin now this way They get back to their stable coin Not a coincidence. This is happening after this news Also seen Russia going to Bitcoin as a currency crash this protects them or You know their savings right people savings was sitting in a roof which lost what I don't even know how much is down now 35 50 percent whatever it is So to put that perspective if you don't understand Currencies and a lot of people don't and I understood the most when I bought At think it was 2012. I had a lot of stock in Canada I started a lot of stock in Canada and Canadian dollars and stuff and (19/34)
had a brokerage firm But they were on par with with the US in terms of the dollar where it is today, but it was like 30% now It's 30% difference which is huge So to put that in perspective say if you have using regular numbers here, you have $100,000 in a Russian bank Just from the loss in currency. It's worth $100,000 now in US and if you decide to put that $100,000 and you took it out of the roof Well and put into Bitcoin you're up easily over 30 35 percent since January 22nd that 100k is now $130,000 I'm just putting it in perspective not telling you to put all your savings at the Bitcoin But I'm putting in perspective how big that currency risk is because it adds to the value of why countries Especially outside the US who are weak and the currencies are crashing and we're seeing inflation Are gonna see money pour into Bitcoin that's a great option for them It's also an easy option where you can put into Bitcoin you can leave the country and then you could have it in another country (20/34)
You can't carry the gold. You can't carry cash that makes a lot of sense But these are no coincidences these stories By executive orders opening up the door to trillions of flow into cryptos and it's not just Bitcoin and fear in which on fire We have several names in our crypto intelligence portfolio that popped 30 to 50 percent over the past two weeks But If you're looking at this news that executive it's a game changer It's providing a future a future regulatory framework for institutions to invest in cryptos And what does that mean exactly guys it opens the door to? 250 trillion trillion guys in global assets. That's how much there is an assets in the management now These are assets that need to be invested in something if they're not those firms managing that money do not make fee They don't make they're not able to charge fees on it if they just keep it in cash It has to be into something and these firms their clients are demanding Demand and not like hey, I think it's a good (21/34)
idea. They're like I want to get into crypto I want to get into crypto this based on what Jamie Diamond just said space on our financial times tons of sources You can read them looking up on Google of their clients demanding that they want access to crypto not all their money But they want some access to it because people say you should put 5% in gold Well, you know a lot of people are saying now the new generation digital let's put 5% in Bitcoin, but we can't do that We need rules in place It's likely why Biden made this announcement since there's lots of lobbying dollars pushing for this agenda because you know If these companies can't invest in crypto through their banks and say if it's whatever say if it's it's not Goldman But use Goldman as an example and Goldman's like hey, we're not gonna invest in crypto. Just like Jamie Diamond said We're not getting a Bitcoin. We're not investing in crypto where their clients are like, well, I want crypto. I'm a freaking leaving Taking 10 (22/34)
million here 100 million there. I mean, yes, they have trillions and assets But that's gonna go to someplace to another firm that is getting into crypto. So now you're seeing by and actually say, okay Here's the framework. That's what they need If you listen to every I don't want to say important and you know low importance of so many people in this industry But if you're looking at the institutions in crypto that manage money the biggest Winklevoss twins Novogratz Stablecoin for USDT you're looking at all the big names across all the platforms all said the same thing They all said this is a watershed moment because they have no clue they can't institutions They have a fiduciary responsibility They can't come into this market and those people who are diehards and say all the institutions and we don't want a regulatory framework I'm hoping they don't go overboard I don't know if they will but I also know that for those of you who are buying Bitcoin hold it forever and think it's gonna (23/34)
go through the roof and Go to 250,000 to a million. It can't get there unless you have Institutional money trillions coming into it. It's amazing how high it's gone with retail investors But eventually there's a cap on that. There's a ceiling There's no ceiling to the amount of money when it comes to I mean you could say 250 trillion is a ceiling but those are trillions of dollars that could flow into crypto now and this is where the most innovation is taking place and Then to open up even more. I mean you look at CZ going to Dubai and Dubai gave Finance a crypto license and then you had FTX one of the largest crypto exchanges doing a great job They also see the license operating to buy as well, which will be used to trade options in cryptos So not a coincidence that other countries like holy shit. The u.s. Is for real now, so We either fall behind or we better start locking in companies even before they come out with that regulatory framework So that you know It's easy to do a great (24/34)
job going all over the place and expanding his brand who's one of the biggest names I think it's a richest crypto person a great. I love him. I mean finance got hacked early on is in our portfolio They got hacked foot. I think it's tens of millions of dollars. This guy paid out immediately Immediately had the money no bullshit, whatever. I mean that provides credibility. That's why it's pretty much the biggest and best place I mean, I just wish that more US exposure, but maybe they do now. It's gonna be a framework. We'll see but there's a clear path for trillions to flow into crypto, which is significant since This is where all the innovations taking place NFTs gives you ownership of your material on the web We don't have to rely on having your material pulled from certain platforms even Elon Musk said he wants to start, you know a competitive service to Twitter because Twitter Facebook YouTube, I mean these guys remove whatever they want to remove they control they own your content. (25/34)
You're on their platform They own it no matter what and you might not even say anything bad. Maybe it's something whatever and they'd like Sorry, we're moving it. You can't get it back. They're like, no, what do you do? You can't like sue anybody can't do anything You see those people who get removed they go on other platforms and say Facebook remove me Zuckerberg's an asshole Is it you know what they get nothing? Nothing that follows its hard to even follow them get servers up to get their own platforms And they could bitch and complain all they want, but they can't do anything other than that NFTs changes that look at the metaverse. It's massive The centralized finance play to earn gaming Dow security tokens and each of those trends alone Could go to separate trillion dollar industries over the next ten years Guys crypto is here. It's why theory is mark cap is now with 360 billion dollars if you take that mark cap, it's bigger than MasterCard. It's bigger than Bank of America It's (26/34)
why you seeing crypto names on stadiums guys like Matt Damon Larry David doing commercials the bigger influences on social media investing in these companies It's here and the growth potential in the next five to ten years is absolutely enormous Now for me we're getting lots of questions about a crypto intelligence newsletters, and I could tell you this Right now in our newsletter at ten cryptos trading below a buy up to price and some of these names are recommended over the past Six months so they they fell they bounced back, but still have enormous enormous upside potential these are names I researched thoroughly they have backing of major funds. They got good management teams. They have utility features for their token There's not a lot of bullshit But if you're believing that bitcoins will one day trade over a hundred thousand one day Let's talk about tomorrow. I'm not talking about the end of this year You're gonna take two years of voice if you believe that if that happens over (27/34)
the next few years Some of these names are likely gonna see 10x plus gains And you can't really get those gains right now in the stock market not when they come out of crazy IPO levels So a coin base even so an uber is uber above its IPO price yet, you know, it's come back And then you have the snowflakes, I mean these things have gotten annihilated Roblox IPO or you do the SPAC route which you know they all get in they all dump their stock They pump it and then these things are all getting destroyed right now, and they're out to their next back, right? They just tell you this greatest thing ever and inflate the valuations when you're fleeing valuations And you're buying these things when they're already pricing in the next 25 years of growth. There's a little upside for you Yes, you could earn 50% 100% 150% You're not gonna earn life-changing game 10x 20x 100x which we've seen in crypto and I think Going forward those games be even greater based on the names that are getting involved (28/34)
in these incredible innovative trends so seeing a lot of lots lots of interests and We do have a lot of names you could buy right now. So we open up crypto intelligence to new subscribers With a special offer for this week if you want it take it if not, don't worry about it I understand if you don't want to get to crypto, but if you are thinking about it, I suggest doing this week So we're cutting the price in half for an annual subscription which makes the offer great by itself and people say 50% Oh, I'm also gonna give away a free year this way You're in this for two years to let this trend run over the next two years. You're gonna see incredible growth You'll be able to pay half the price by two years crypto intelligence Again, it's the best offer we made on this product since we launched over three years ago But it's only good for this week If you're interested you can go to our website curves of research comm is a batter there If you're on an email list, you're gonna be getting (29/34)
email for us with that special offer again only good for this week But I want to try to get for people who have been asking about it and thinking about it the timing right now I love getting people in at the right time Because those are people that are gonna be able to benefit not only that within our portfolio We have lots of names that you could buy right now So it's not like you get the newsletter and that you can only buy the last name, right? Cuz everything's trained above the buy up to price. That's what happens Super Bowl markets There's over ten and is those are played on defi metaverse security tokens recommended security token one super speculative coin, which I think has Incredible incredible upside potential I mean, it's a pure play on cities like New York Austin, Miami who are getting into crypto But I see hundreds of cities following their lead and this is the coin that all that flows through And why do I see that people say well electricity costs on my it's much better (30/34)
in terms of tax dollars then Legalizing marijuana or legalizing gambling which really really hurts people And when you look at the electricity and the cost compared to other things that banks are using and stuff like that It really is little it's all political agenda against it But you're gonna see a lot of cities they need tax revenue They spend much more than they bring in and you have three cities are in here They're gonna just like when Colorado open up the door for marijuana. Look who followed everybody follow said, okay There's the easiest way to make tax on same with gambling easiest way to make tax dollars. This provides a much safer way for people Unless you like, you know more more people smoke marijuana and gamble which we know happens sometimes with that But this provides an easier way This is the pure play on all that growth in those cities going to crypto also a buy and open up the u.s. To institutions. I mean I've never been more bullish on this sector in my life. Okay, (31/34)
that's saying something considering the money I made in this industry over the past three four five years So when it comes to crypto you have to have money allocated to the sector. Is it risky? Yes, but when you're looking at the risk-reward and what you could generate you're not gonna see it anywhere across all industries I've been doing this for 30 years You're not gonna see that to the point where if you're risking a certain amount of capital your gains could be 10x 20x 50x which we've seen compared to risking that same amount to again get maybe 2x 4x 5x and that's in whatever industry Meme stocks or crazy stuff or biotech or whatever. So it becomes a risk-reward It's all a matter of how much you want to speculate with your money But we all should be speculating at least a certain percentage if you are It needs to be in crypto guys. That's what all the innovations taking place. This is like the internet it is here All the institutions about to rush in and the next three to five (32/34)
years Like I said, I've never been more bullish at any time in this sector in my life So if you're interested in that offer go to courage at research calm. There's a little banner there. If not, no worries I know a lot of you like no, I don't want crypto I still need to learn you can learn from this and do videos 30 minute videos get educational Stuff that you could find on there you have questions a comment email me directly to but uh, yeah It's there for you. If you want it only available for this week. So guys, that's it for me Any other questions comments just want to cover the things that I'm doing with my money Banks in crypto two things. I love okay There's training opportunities all over the place lots of trading opportunities and I get it straight back and forth went to oil agriculture uranium I get it people hold you rain usually long term, but if you're looking for the next Two years and investing says the next 18 to 24 months you have to have exposure to banks You have to (33/34)
have exposure to crypto. That's where the institution money trillions is gonna flow into And those are on trends that are not changing Anytime soon unless you expect governments to stop spending as much money as they're spending Or unless you expect the Fed to stop raising rates, which if they do we're gonna see inflation at 12 13 14 percent So they have to raise rates Those are two almost almost guarantees that are gonna happen and the two sectors gonna benefit the most cryptos and banks so that's it for me getting questions comments Frank because the research calm and See you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (34/34)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - A financial phenomenon you can't afford to ignore….
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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream. What's going on out there? It's September 1st! I'm Frank Gurgis, the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. I have a great interview coming your way with a good friend, great analyst. It's Mark Lichtenfeld. Chief Income Strategist at Oxford Club. I have several newsletters including the Oxford Income newsletter and also several trading services. So Mark and I go way way back to the Street.com days. Haven't had him on for a while. No reason why he's been crazy busy, but he is in Florida and I like seeing him all the time and just really one of the good guys in this business. Mark is also an author. He's got great books. Two of them Get Rich With Dividends, Proven Cisses for Earning Double-Dish Returns. Also, you don't (1/35)
have to drive an Uber in retirement to maintain your lifestyle without getting a job or cutting corners. So these are both award-winning books. The second one being ranked number one on Amazon's bestseller list. I always have great interviews with Mark. So if you're a new subscriber to our podcast, listen just for the past couple months or if you've been around for 10 years, you know that Mark is great. We can go anywhere and we do. We're actually even talking about bonds and all kinds of different ideas and stocks. That's also good what I know you guys like is it gives lots and lots of ideas and you're gonna get at least five or six, probably more stock picks from this interview. Let's get to it right now. Mark, click the bell. What's going on, man? Hey, Frank. Great to see you. It's been a while. Too long. Too long. We've known each other for a very long time. Street.com days where I know what your passion is. We're gonna talk about income, we're gonna talk about bonds, but I love (2/35)
talking about biotech because you always help me out incredibly in that sector. I still love biotech. I really do. There's something about it just to see how companies manage themselves and how doctors, once they get these things approved, they'll go into phase three, they turn to real companies and just the whole process. It's just I'm always intrigued by it. But I want to start with the overall economy. I mean, we're seeing the Fed in I'm going to raise rates no matter what mode, yet you're seeing the effects in a lot of different industries, especially housing, especially retailers. It's happening very quick. What are your thoughts here? I mean, it seems like income value finally in favor after 10, 12 years, which is probably right up your alley. But what are your thoughts on the economy the rest of the year and into next year? Because right now it seems like a pretty scary environment. I know a lot of people are nervous. Yeah, it does. Obviously, we're in recession now, although (3/35)
the latest numbers were, if they stay this way, a mild recession. And then you have a lot of forecasts that are pretty wide ranging. Some people think it's going to become a very deep recession. Others think it could be quite mild and maybe we even come out of it quickly. It's really difficult to say, especially when you factor in inflation, because kind of nobody really knows where that's going. And when we had sky high gas prices, which have come back down to more normal levels now. But I'm not seeing prices going down in the supermarket. I don't think most businesses are seeing their prices come down. Actually, yesterday, my wife and I were talking about gas prices and she said, so does that mean everybody's going to start lowering their prices? And I said, probably not. You know, I don't know if they can get away with it. They're certainly not going to. So I think it's a little too early to say. I would love to tell you, you know, this is where things are going. But I think with (4/35)
inflation right now and seeing where that ends up and what the Fed has to do to get it under control and what effect that's going to have. I think it's just a little too early to say where the economy is going. If you look at the stock market as a forward looking indicator, which it often is, you know, we had that huge drop from the beginning of the year. That certainly suggested recession. Then we had a pretty big bounce. So is that simply a bear market rally or was that was the bottom end? So again, a little early to say I'm leaning towards assuming that we are going to go down, whether we make a new low, I don't know. But if we go down, then that would suggest to me at least that we're not out of the woods yet as far as recession in the economy. So you have several newsletters and income newsletters, which I mentioned already before we actually got on there. Talk about income. It seems like an area that people like, oh, OK, I get it now. Right. We have a bear market. We have the Fed (5/35)
not there to pick us up. And I looked at the S&P 500 and I think it's around a 1.6% yield, which surprised me. I thought it'd be higher right now with the S&P 500 down. But I mean, it's usually won't go historically 4% dating back to the 50s, but it's usually closer to 1.2% at least over the past 10 years. Yet you're seeing a lot of stocks pay a much higher dividend than that, more than double that and really good names. What are you telling your clients, people who follow you and follow your newsletters? Because it seems like there's a lot of good names in there that are not just paying a high dividend. And I know you cover the sector for a long time. You're not just going to buy something that pays a high yield. But the underlying company, the growth behind it, it seems like there's a lot of good names out there where you have a lot of value, you have growth and also that income, which everybody craves for. Yeah. And it's interesting because a year ago, a little bit longer, it was (6/35)
really difficult to find decent yields with that growth and fair valuations because the stock market was so hot for so long. So to find a stock with even a 4% yield that wasn't, let's say a REIT or an MLP was really, really difficult. And even some of the REITs were down to 4% yield. So it was really hard. When we had that sell off, obviously that's painful when you look at your statement. But if you're a long-term investor, that shouldn't matter so much. But what's been great for income investors is now we can get into some names where you're getting 4 or 5% yields on some quality stocks. And if you're looking at the REITs and MLPs, you can get that 6%, 7%, even 8%. So it's certainly gotten a lot easier for income investors because of the bear market. And what I always tell my investors, they should be in these stocks for the long term. These are not stocks you buy to hold on for a year, collect your 4% and get out. So if you're in for the long haul, who cares where the stock market (7/35)
is today? You're planning on selling 5, 10 years from now. But in the meantime, you are collecting that income, which helps offset some of the pain a little bit. And if you're reinvesting those dividends, if you don't need to collect the income today, then you get to do that at lower prices, which you get to buy more shares, which generates even more dividends, and it really accelerates the compounding machine. So I love a bear market for the long-term investor who's investing and reinvesting in dividend stocks, just for that exact reason. It really accelerates your wealth down the road. Frank Curzio Yeah, I just pulled some research here. So I have a piece of paper, a handy piece of paper that I wrote this down. So it's the names that have a 4% yield or higher. Okay, this is from today. So Intel, Gilead, or just 4%, right? So Best Buy, Whirlpool, VF Corp. And then you have 5% yielders, right? And you think, well, what's going on underneath the hood? Maybe that... Do you think IBM, (8/35)
Newmont, which is in a great position, right? We know gold is horrible right now, but these guys produce under $1,000 an ounce just printing money right now. Even at $1,600 and $1,700, they're making money. Dow Chemical, Philip Morris, Verizon, AT&T, Kinder Morgan. I mean, these are quality names. We're not talking about garbage names here. Oh, this one pays a high dividend or whatever. We've seen the stock come down and you worry about earnings or debt default or anything like that. These are quality names paying this dividend. And you mentioned something about compounding. Why is it the younger generation, if you mentioned that, it's like a switch that just turns off? Like they're just not interested in it. When you're like, look at this 30 year, if you compound from... I mean, I know 30 years is a long time, but when we get to our age, you see how fast it happens? And I'm like, man, if you're 20 years old, just put away a hundred bucks here. And why is it that they're so turned off? (9/35)
Is it the Bitcoin generation, the crypto generation, I want to get rich tomorrow because, man, I wish I knew what they did when I was that age. And we're trying to explain it to them, but they don't want to listen. Yeah, I think people do want to get rich quickly. I'm going to sound like an old man here, but I think that generation has a shorter attention span due to all the technology they consume and a 24 hour news cycle. You know, everything is just much faster in their lives than it was with us. So I was unbelievably lucky that when I was 21 years old, I read about compounding and read about the effects and started putting money away. When I was 21 years old, I maxed out my IRA at that point, which was $2,000 a year because I had heard just some crazy statistics about if you invested from 21 to 31 and stopped, you would have more money at 65 than if you started at 31 and invested all the way to 65. Great stat. You know, the same amount of money every year. So I continued to invest (10/35)
past 31, but that made a major impact on me. And I just think that, you know, the younger generation, maybe they don't think about 50 and 60 years old and that it could ever happen. And, you know, to be honest, when I was 21 years old, I really wasn't that concerned about beating 60 and retiring someday. I was just getting started. But somewhere in the back of my mind, I knew that was out there and I should probably do this because I looked at the numbers and numbers have always made sense to me, you know, when it's just kind of out there in black and white, then so that's what I started doing. And as far as getting younger people involved, I think one of the problems they don't really teach it in school. So they don't teach about the dangers of compounding with credit cards and they don't teach about the benefits of compounding. So if they're not getting it anywhere, but everything else that they're hearing is, you know, buying AMC options on Reddit and, you know, another kind of, you (11/35)
know, get rich quick schemes or strategies. You know, I can see why it's boring to put a few thousand dollars away a year in Intel and, you know, JP Morgan and wait for 20, 30 years. I get it. It's not they shouldn't be doing it, but I get it. Yeah, yeah, I know I get it too. I mean, at really 25, I was not taking life seriously and I was having a lot of fun. That's why when I go to conferences or speak conferences and I see young people there come up to me, I'm like, what are you doing here? You should be drinking, getting drunk, having fun, going to clubs right now. It's like, yeah, I'm always so impressed. I'm like, wow, which is pretty cool. But one of the things that you're doing and you've been doing is getting into bonds. And that seems like a very, very hard sell for individuals because you're not just and I've done the research, I looked some of the stuff that you do and you say, listen, don't buy a fund, which you get close end funds, mutual funds and a bond exposure. You (12/35)
talk about individual bonds. It makes all sense in the world. I know exactly why you're doing it. But how difficult is that to get people to buy this? Because, you know, again, I would think that's catered to someone that may be looking for that income, retirement, you know, older. And just, you know, I don't know if there's too much of a learning curve of buying it where it's pretty easy to buy, but just, you know, people have to learn a little bit, I could pay the buy in a simple stock. But how do you get people interested in that? And what do you see in the bond market? Because what we saw is, you know, the bond market get crushed. Right. So, you know, how are you talking about it, mentioning it? Because there's an area that seems, you know, ripe to do a lot better. But for individual investors, I feel like it's a hard sell. Surprisingly, it isn't when they understand the very basic concept. So one of the things, as you mentioned, that I say, stay away from bond funds and bond ETFs, (13/35)
because they will go down when interest rates rise. And I certainly expect interest rates to continue to rise. With an individual bond, you buy an individual bond, the price may go down while you own it, if interest rates rise. But at maturity, you're going to get your money back or you get the par value, which is $1,000 per bond in almost all cases. So if you buy a bond at $1,000 or maybe you buy it at a slight discount, $950, it doesn't matter if tomorrow the bond is worth $90. Your plan is to hold it until maturity. Now, if it goes up and we can take a profit, we certainly will. But that's not the plan. The plan is to hold it until maturity. As a result, also, we're not buying long-term bonds. You know, I'm trying to stay $2,026 in earlier maturities. I want to keep them fairly short. So the reason that the bond funds and ETFs will lose money is because when you go to sell one of those securities, meaning that the fund or the ETF, the price that you're going to get is the value of (14/35)
the assets. And if the bonds have fallen in price, then the value of the ETF will go down, and that's the price you'll get. So you'll lose money if those prices go down. With the individual bond, again, you're only planning to hold it to maturity. You don't care. You're not selling when the price is down. And if you think you might have to, you shouldn't buy the bond. If you're buying a three-year bond and you think you need the money in a year, don't do it. Only buy the bond that you plan to hold until maturity. So once people understand that concept, it's not a particularly difficult sell because they do see that it's terrific income. You can get really high-quality bonds now paying 3, 4 percent, and if you go down a little bit less in the credit rankings, then you're getting 5, 6 percent, maybe even more. And the thing is, even when you go to the lower credit bonds, the overwhelming majority of bonds pay and do exactly what they're expected to. The long-term default rate for junk (15/35)
bonds is 4 percent, and that is very much concentrated in the very lowest-rated bonds. So you can buy a bond, say a BB bond, which is not particularly high. It's not at the floor either. Maybe get a 6 percent yield or maybe even higher, and you can feel pretty darn competent that you're going to get your money back at the end of maturity. So when people kind of get that and they also get that it doesn't matter what the stock market does, you're going to get your money back. I'm writing an article now for the Oxford Income Letter where we showed JP Morgan is down, I think it was about a third over the past year, whereas its bonds have fallen, I want to say, roughly 10 percent. Again, we don't care because we're going to hold the bond to maturity, but even then, when stocks tank, bonds are a nice place to be because you're not getting hit as hard when markets are crashing. I know. Usually that's the case. I know bonds have really fell off tremendously this year and even before that. But (16/35)
what is your methodology where you talked about BB, talk about investment grade, what's your methodology? Because you have to look under the hood for your investors to see if these guys generate. Is it just cash flow? Is it earnings, the history of earnings? Again, you have a lot of rating services that do a lot of the work for you and can rate these. But also, there's people that can look even further under the hood and say, okay, these guys should be investment graded or not, and that's where you're going to pay a higher yield and get a better price on your bond. But what's some of the methodology that you use that you look for to really recommend a bond? Sure. I don't consider the rating agencies' ratings too much because, don't forget, these are the same guys that were rating all those mortgage securities AAA when they were worthless. So what I look for as far as ratings is to see if something's maybe undervalued. So if I'm looking at a BB bond and the yield is too low, then I'll (17/35)
say, well, we're not getting paid enough for that level of risk and vice versa. We're getting paid very handsomely for this level of risk based on what the market thinks. So yeah, what I look for cash flow is of the utmost importance, very similar to what I look for in dividends, a balance sheet. I want to know that there is some cash that they're not so heavily in debt that they can't make their interest payments. And most importantly, or I should say as importantly, I want to see where the bond that I'm interested in falls as far as their maturity schedule. So if I'm looking at a 2024 bond, but they have a ton of bonds maturing in 23, and that means they're going to probably have to raise more money, sell more bonds to pay off the 24s, I'm not interested. I want to be first in line for that and let the bond investors behind me a few years down the road worry about how they're going to get paid. So I really try to be kind of at the head of the line or if I can't be the first maturity, (18/35)
then I want to know that there's not a large maturity ahead of me so that there's not a concern about the bonds getting repaid. And that being said, if a bond is rated fairly high, theoretically, they shouldn't have a problem raising money if they have to under somewhat normal circumstance. I mean, if it's 2008 again, then that might be a little different. But yeah, so basically, I want to see very solid financials and I want to see that the bonds are not going to have a problem getting repaid. And again, the overwhelming majority, it's never a problem. Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. So getting back to the income side, which you can throw bonds in there too, what people love when you're on is you share some of your ideas. What are some of your ideas out there for, I guess, stocks? Let's go with stocks. I mean, are you looking at yield specifically? Do you look under the hood to see which ones are growing? Obviously, with energy, you're still getting 3, 3.5% dividends with Exxon, (19/35)
Chevron, the biggest, right? And they seem like the strongest in terms of earnings power going forward right now. And I know oil has come down, but still it's very, very strong compared to a year ago. So what are some ideas that you're sharing? If you can, nothing that you give away to people who are paying for your newsletter, but what are some of the areas or maybe some individual things that you're looking at that pay it out? Nice income that people could buy. Yeah, well, so I do love energy. We've held Chevron forever in the portfolio. Some of the midstream companies also I've been a fan of for a long time and continue to be. I mean, it's always described as just a toll booth for oil and gas. And I love the fact that they don't go through the boom and bust cycles the way some of the oil producers do. And I also like some of the alternative energy companies, a company like NextEra Energy Partners, which is one of the leading solar and wind companies in the country. It's a subsidiary (20/35)
of NextEra Energy, which is an energy powerhouse, utility powerhouse right here in Florida, as you know. And they pay a very solid dividend yield. Plus, it is tax deferred because it is a partnership. So it is a return of capital. So you don't pay any taxes on the dividend in the year it's received. It reduces your cost and eventually down the road when you sell it, you'll pay tax on a larger capital gain. But all those years that you're collecting the dividend, there's pretty much no taxes on a regular year. So I love that, especially as we're seeing not just more legislation geared towards that, but a lot of it does make economic sense, especially if oil prices continue to go higher. There's just going to be more solar and wind projects happening. And you have a company like NextEra Energy. This is not a bunch of granola eating, kumbaya singing, hippies setting up a windmill in a field. I mean, these are very serious conservative business people. So if they're investing heavily in (21/35)
this, then there's money to be made here. And then also, of course, health care. Any of the sectors that should thrive and survive recession. So health care, consumer staples, anything like that. I really want to be focused on those companies that if we do hit a rough patch for the next year or so, that these companies will be able to continue to grow their revenues, grow their cash flow and pay that dividend. No, it makes a lot of sense. So one of the areas that I don't think you cover anymore at Oxford is biotech. And I remember, is it Adam Borstein? Yeah. I don't know if he's still at the street or not, but he's- Yeah, he's with Stat News. He became very big at the time, but a few years ago, I haven't really followed him too much. But I know you used to cover biotech. You used to go to the annual JP Morgan health care conference. You used to give me updates and everything. I know it's got to be a passion still. Are you looking at biotech? Because biotech, when you look at that (22/35)
industry and people... It topped at February, right? I mean, that's when they hit the top, which was well before the rest of the market. And then you saw this just massive collapse. And we'll talk about February 2021. I felt like the leveraging in this industry was incredible because some of these names were trading down 80, 90%. I mean, these are good names. These were names that would generate revenue, right? And I was like, just the massive leveraging taking place, which is something that I think is prime for guys like you. Are you still following that industry? Do you have any names? Because I always know that that was really a passion for yours. Yeah, so I still do follow it. I don't have the biotech newsletter anymore. So I'm not following it as much on a day to day basis. And when I was doing that, I was really focused on companies that would have a catalyst and let's say, generally within six months. And that was roughly how long I was planning on holding a stock for. Sometimes (23/35)
it was longer, sometimes it was less. These days I'm doing much more active trading. So it's not so much focused on a catalyst. Basically, if the sector is rising, I find some names that look exciting. But that being said, one of my favorite stocks is Ligand, LGND. Sorry, LGND is the symbol. And what I like about them is they are... Royalties, right? Yeah, and they're not focused on getting that clinical trial data to come in strong or that one FDA approval that's going to make or break the company. They have well over 100 different compounds. Some there are still in development, some are licensed to other companies that are on the market and where the big pharmas are developing them. So when that happens, the risk is off for Ligand. And basically when something positive happens, like a strong clinical trial, they'll usually get a milestone payment. And when it hits the market, they just sit back and collect the royalties. So really, their business model is find these molecules, find (24/35)
these compounds, develop them at very, very early stages, and then license them out, let somebody else take on all the risk. And then they just sit back and collect the money. And so I really like that model because it's not so boom and bust like it is for some biotechs. You saw Moderna did nothing for years. I mean, they couldn't get anything across the goal line. And then suddenly, COVID happened and they're one of the biggest names in biotech. So it's nice not to just be staring at your computer screen on the day that you know that an FDA approval is coming out, just blue, just hoping that something positive happens because you know the stock could move 50% either up or down, depending on the news. So those are the kinds of things I'm looking at these days. Frank Curzio Yeah, the volatility in that you can look any day, I mean, go to Finviz free sites, and you'll see the winners and losers smoke at you'll always see those like crazy. They just they're on the losers list that the (25/35)
winners list of 50% 100, 200% down 67. It is a crazy market. And now I see it. So I want to get to the last thing here because one of the things I love, love is that you are a ring announcer. And you've done it here where I live once and this is a while ago. So I saw firsthand. And then I'm sure you can go and see different videos of it. Are you still doing that? I mean, you know, boxing is MMA, because, man, I love watching it. And that is really seriously, I would quit everything you do and do that. You're amazing. And everybody's got to see you on YouTube. Whenever I see that, I'm like, Whoa, this guy's great. Like I didn't expect them like this guy's awesome. It's really cool. Yeah, it's, you know, it's kind of a very bizarre side hustle that I started doing a long time ago. And I've been a boxing fan since I'm 12 years old. So it is the most fun thing you could possibly imagine to be standing in the center of the rain, getting the scorecard first telling everybody, you know, who (26/35)
won the fight and getting to talk to the boxers and you know, some of the some of the I get to meet some of the guys that, you know, I grew up watching. That's great. So it is it is so much fun. Yeah, I continue to do it. I'm working for a promoter called Pro Box promotions. They have a great app. It's 18 bucks a year and you get all their fights and they have a lot of up and coming fights and a couple of world title fights here and there. And they put on a great show. So it's so much fun. I absolutely love it. And every time the phone rings to do it, I can't wait to get to when when's your next one? The next one is early October. You gotta let me know. I gotta tweet it out. Everybody's gonna watch it. I'll let you know. In Florida, so maybe you can come by. All right. Definitely. Definitely. So it can't be that far from you, right? Aren't you still far by Palm Beach? Or is it Delray? Yeah, yeah, I'm Delray and this this fight is near Tampa. So not terribly far. No, not too far. Not (27/35)
too far. Well, Mark, listen, it's been too long. I'm gonna have you on a lot more. I know my guests love you because you always tell her how it is and I love you. And you always share lots and lots of ideas. So I miss you, man. Got to talk a little bit more. Got to see each other face to face kiss in person because it has been too long. But I really appreciate you coming on and hopefully come on again soon. Yeah, my pleasure. And if I can just do a quick shameless plug, if anybody. No, it's not shameless. I was just gonna say before I go, if someone wants to learn more about you, and it's not just the Oxford Club, but there's other places as well. Go ahead. Yeah. So if you want to learn especially more about the bonds and what we were talking about, you can go to stock quitters one, the number one stock quitters one. Dot com or go to Oxford Club.com. You can. There's plenty of stuff on me there. So let me get this straight. It's stock quitters one.com, which I'm definitely promoting (28/35)
this right now. Right. And then which I'm not getting paid for. But you actually recommend stocks in your income newsletter. Yes. Yes. The whole idea behind stock quitters is for people that can't handle the volatility, the kind that we've been seeing. And whether they just can't sleep at night and they're just kind of done with the market. And I know plenty of people have had that experience in the last few months. Or perhaps they're approaching a milestone. Like for me, both of my kids are in college right now. So as we've gotten closer to them going to college, I scaled back in their 529. I took money out of stocks and stock funds and put it into fixed income and cash because I couldn't have the exposure to stocks in that particular account. So for part of my finances, I was a stock quitter for sure. No, it definitely makes sense. So listen, Mark, thanks again for coming on in. I'll talk to you soon. Okay. Thanks for having me. Thanks. Great stuff from Mark. He's one of the great (29/35)
guys in our industry. Great family. Works his ass off. Passionate. And love interviewing him. Just someone that I've known. Wow. I would say, oof, I'm getting old. I don't even want to say. Probably about 15 years. So, yeah, it's good to see guys around that long. When you're around that long in any industry, it means you're good at what you do. He does a great job for Oxford. Oxford is a division of Agor. I have a lot of respect for those guys over there. They've been around for a long time. Very good analyst there. Alex Green's another one I respect. Julia, I believe, still runs a show there whose grades been around for a long time. And, yeah, if you get a chance, hey, go see what Mark does. I don't get paid for any of his products at all. I just forgot. Usually I always give my guys a chance, everyone I'm interviewing, a chance to say, hey, someone wants to find out more information, here's how they can do it. So hopefully go there and take a look at it again. I don't get paid for (30/35)
anything. You guys let me know. So if you subscribe to his service, it's good. Let me know. If it's not so good, always let me know. I'm not going to put bad guys in front of you. I never do that. I always want to have guys that have great ideas, original ideas, things that no one else is talking about. I can tell you income is in favor. I know people say, well, income is boring and bonds are boring. Well, it's not so boring when you're sitting in risky stocks and they're down 70, 80%. So there's a time to get aggressive. There's time to be conservative. It's like a game of chess. There's times with tax, time to ease back a little bit and play safe. And now's the time to play safe. I mean, you heard me in the podcast. You just got to be careful if the Fed overshoots here. It's very, very dangerous. It's going to create a very, very terrible environment. Otherwise, I ran down a list of names. And that list of names are solid names. Yeah, Intel kind of sucks lately, and yes, they're (31/35)
behind the curve. But the stocks reflecting that, Gilead, Best Buy, VF Corp, Whirlpool, those are solid names, paying 4% yields. 5% of IBMs, the Newmonts, Dow Chemical, Philip Morris, Verizon, AT&T, Kinder Morgan's. I mean, those are some really, really good names where it's not, hey, let me just sit back and boring. Some of those names have a lot of growth potential as well. So it's not just sitting back in those dividends, not how Warren Buffett made a fortune, even though books have been written about that and compounding. No. He made a fortune because he bought insurance companies and leveraged those pools of money times 10, 20 times, whatever it was. And that's how he inflated those returns. He didn't just buy Wells Fargo and Coca-Cola and hold and collect the dividends and say, look what I did. No. There's a lot more than that. But the point is that you have to pick good stocks. You just can't pick decent names with good yield that aren't going to grow. And there's a lot of names (32/35)
on that list that I just ran off on bulldozers. 4%, 5% yield is really, really great in a market like this. And some of them are going to provide safety when the Fed is a little confused right now. We don't know what they're going to do. They say what they're going to do. Hopefully they don't because they said what they're going to do last two years, Jackson Hole, and they completely didn't about face. So let's see what happens to the market going forward. But hopefully you enjoyed that interview, especially given the current times. I certainly enjoyed it. But again, there's podcasts about you, not about me. Let me know what you thought. FrankCursleyResearch.com. That's Frank at Cursley Research. That's it for me. Again, any questions, send me an email. I'm here for you. Use it as a resource. I like to hear from you. People email me all over the world with great, great stuff. Just what's going on in their neck of the woods. It gives me a good perception. It allows me to recommend (33/35)
great, great stocks and find new ideas. So this podcast, I know you listen to it and it's for free, but hey, I learn as much from you guys as you learn from me. So it's really cool. The network is getting bigger and bigger and bigger every single month, it feels like. And I just want to thank you guys for listening, supporting me. It's really, really cool. I always say you guys are crazy. I don't know why you listen to me. But hey, if I could be myself and you guys like it, then I'm going to keep doing this. It's 15 years and going and I got to be honest with you, I still love it because of the people like you I meet and it's really, really cool. So again, feel free to email me. If you are a subscriber to any of our paid services, you're going to get a Frankly Speaking podcast tomorrow, which is cool. If not, then too bad. I'll see you guys next week. Take care. Host and guest should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your (34/35)
responsibility. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Ignore valuations… Focus on these 3 factors instead.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – It's going out there. It's November 4th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. I have a great interview for you right now. This is my buddy, Luke Downey. So if you're a subscriber or have gone to our CurzioResearch.com website to view all of our free content, past podcasts, you should be familiar with Luke. There's a ton of free content for us. Also, there's lots of videos, which I love because this helps educate investors. We like them so much that we hired him to write a newsletter for us, which is called Big Money Report. And a lot of you who are subscribers to the product are doing very well. This is a product that you'll see a lot of cool growth names in (1/35)
that many investors that I realize over my career are afraid to buy or stay away from, mostly due to valuation. But as you know, these are the names that are driving the market higher over the past 10 years. Luke doesn't buy these names blindly. As a system he took years to build that helps people like you, everyday investors, invest not after the big money, which is the institutions and the major funds, but right alongside it. So thus far, this product has been doing incredibly well. Luke is doing an incredible job, starting to get lots of fans. I love the work you do. Luke, enough, right? Enough of the compliments, buddy. Let's bring you in. How's everything going? Frank, everything's going great. I love that little intro. That was great, man. Thanks. No, I appreciate it. I mean it. The work that you do in the performance of the newsletter is fantastic. And I want to start here, right? Because you did this on September 20th. I've seen your market calls. A lot of people might say, (2/35)
well, I subscribe to the newsletter. I like to get individual ideas. I love your market calls because they've been very, very good. Late September, you said, and if you put yourself back in late December, I know right now, I think it's 14 out of 15 days, the S&P going up. Everything's going higher, everybody's bullish. But back then, the market came down, you saw the bears come out. They were nervous saying, it could come down further, rates are going higher. You said based on history, look, this is a good time to buy. You said buy the, I think it was the ARK Internet Fund and also the Russell, which is a way to play this move higher that you saw coming. Maybe a couple days early, but if you look at that performance since then, it's double what the S&P is, both of those plays. How do you see these market moves and what are some of the indicators you use? Because some people might be like, well, he's just guessing, but the sophistication and how much goes into your system and how much (3/35)
you've worked in the hours is incredible. And it's been really spot on many, many times and people can go back and see it in their research curves and research. How do you do it? Frank, this is great. This is a good segue to talk about what I'm doing every single day. So if you're not familiar with what I do with Curzio, I just follow the big money and that's what I learned to do while trading on these Wall Street trading desks. One thing I noticed was that a lot of the smart hedge funds, money managers, pension funds, they would be attracted to the same type of stocks and they would buy them day after day after day and sometimes for over a month. And what I noticed was whichever direction they were going, the stock tended to follow. So if they were buying a stock, a growth stock, a group of stocks, a basket of stocks, they would tend to go up. And that is really what I do every single day. So in the morning I wake up, I get my coffee, the kids are still asleep, it's pitch black, and (4/35)
I'm looking through a lot of data. And the data that we look at, it's a little sophisticated, but I'm able to pick out patterns that are happening just by looking at the price action and the volumes, which is indicative of where the institutions are moving. So if we rewind the tape, we go back to September, remember it was doom and gloom. People were not getting bullish. But what I started to notice, Frank, was you look in the data, there were just a few little high growth stocks that started to get bought. And listen, I've been doing this for a number of years. And there's a couple of them that start to lead usually, and specifically it happens out of nowhere, usually you see more of those high quality growth stocks that tend to follow. And really what's happening behind the scenes, what I used to do was anytime you start to see these growth names start to rip higher, 10%, 5%, 20%, they get a buy signal. There's a bunch of portfolio managers that are short those stocks, right? And so (5/35)
they have to start covering, and then it starts this stampede. And then before you know it, the bears are gone and then everybody's like, wow, there's a lot of undervalued stocks. And then they start piling in. And that's really what prefaced that piece that we wrote, which is free. If you're not consuming the free Curzio research pieces, you're missing out. And that's why I was telling everybody, get your rally hats on. And yeah, it was a couple of days early, but look where we are now. Frank Curzio Yeah, no, it is a great call. And for me, I've always realized the mistake is when I saw Apple trading at 60, 70 times forward earnings, Netflix at 120 times forward earnings. Me personally, I stayed away from that. And I'm a perfectionist where I'm getting better. I try to get better every single day. And people are like, wow, you're good at stock picking. It's every day you have to be able to adapt and learn. For me, I always look back and said, why am I missing these names? Why didn't I (6/35)
see the valuation? Where now, if you look at Microsoft, they're trading at a premium to the overall market. But yeah, these companies fit into their valuation because of their total addressable market. How did you come up with this system to follow some of these names? Because you can go back, I won't even go back before the credit crisis, but since then, the move in growth compared to value and how these names and how you get that premium, you get that massive premium for growth. And if these guys execute along the way, that's where you see the Nvidia's and all these crazy stocks and a lot of these things that you've known in the past. I mean, how'd you figure this out? Because it seems for this conversation has to be explaining investors of why you need to be investing in these things, even though they're expensive. And that's not an easy conversation. How do you have that conversation with regular investors? Definitely. So, you know, when I started out investing, I started out like (7/35)
a lot of other people, right? They probably started day trading. They probably started messing around with penny stocks. I did that as well. And, you know, I got my butt kicked, right? And then along the way, I started to realize that who do I want to be as an investor? Okay. Do I want to be hot and heavy, sweating every day? You know, is it going up? Is it going down? I always knew that the big stocks, right? The big winning stocks, they tend to just go up year after year. And it's just a handful of these stocks, right? You know, you can look back at, you know, Walmart, Coca-Cola, you know, these used to be growth stocks. You know, Home Depot used to be a crazy growth stock. This isn't, you know, now it's a run of the mill. They trade like staples. But when I got on these Wall Street trading desks, everything started to change for me because prior to seeing how these institutions trade and me trading on behalf of them, I began to realize that, you know, the lines on these charts are (8/35)
not random. And in fact, typically it's the order flow of these institutions that are determining what these stock is doing every single day. So I knew this because I was handling the workflow. Basically, what we were buying is I dictated the price for that day. And so then I started to think, OK, well, big money is very important, right? We need to be on the same side of that because they all move in packs, whether it's up or down. And then I began to look back in history and say, well, what were some of the qualities of some of the greatest stocks of all time had? And I could narrow it down to three things. One is they had great earnings or revenue growth, right? So their business was expanding every single year. And then the best ones tend to have a lot of profits, right? They tend to make a lot of money. So if you marry that together with the big money, because the other thing that all the great stocks have is smart investors are buying them along the way. Right. So those are the (9/35)
three, you know, traits that you can pretty much guarantee that a great stock is going to have looking back. Right. And so I came up with a way to rank these stocks, give them a numerical score ranked from one to 100, if you will. And the highest scoring stocks means that they have big money. That means that they are great growth stocks. That means they have great fundamentals, great technicals. And then the cherry on top, which I think makes me a little bit unique, is I actually listen to the earnings calls. I listen to the guidance and I put myself in the position of a portfolio manager. I try to sit and think, OK, what is the positioning of this stock? Right. And then where do I think this stock is potentially going in the years to come? So and I'll use one example. You know, seven years ago, I was sitting there and I was like, man, Netflix just seems like an amazing company. Right. And I could see the big money was there. Fundamentals were there. I literally only bought 10 shares. (10/35)
And on the same day, I bought 10 shares of Tesla. And, you know, now seven years later, just talking about Tesla, a twenty three hundred and fifty dollar investment is now, I believe, worth something like sixty thousand dollars. So you don't have to have big money to find these great growth stocks. Right. And Netflix was, you know, a tin bagger as well. So that's what we're trying to do. That's what I love to do. And it's it's been a great ride. And speaking of all the growth that's going on now, I think the whole world is transforming in terms of technology. Everything is moving to this technological advancements. And, you know, you can see that everybody is paying a subscription for just about everything they do in life. And they're just these companies that dominate their lane and the big money is all over it. So let's get along for the ride. Now, and this is great stuff. This is why I want to write a newsletter for us. So I'm on the website now and paid subscription. I'm not going (11/35)
to show again and I can give away all your picks here. But it's the big money report. And guys, this newsletter we made very affordable. It's one hundred dollars under one hundred dollars for the entire year. Just because, you know, you want to see I want you to see, you know, Luke's work here and and and understand it. Right. Because it's difficult because people don't know anyone. I don't want everyone out there that markets. They say, you know, my performance is this and the greatest trade in the world. So I said, you know, I want people to really see this. And these are some of the stocks I'm talking about. Only look, you have only a couple of losers in the portfolio, just like everybody else has loses in a portfolio. Most of these are winners. But companies like in mode. I mean, that's not on anyone's radar. A Vantor. You have, you know, Ulta Beauty here, but Dynatrace. OK, these are up. These are up. You know, these are holds. Right. So I'm not giving away anything for free. But (12/35)
these are companies that that don't hit people's radars. And one of those names is Crocs, which, by the way, it's funny story when Crocs because Crocs does such an up and down ride. Now it's absolutely, you know, going gangbusters and, you know, you're up a ton in it. One of your biggest winners. But I was with Jim Cramer hanging out when I worked for him and I just got matters on my honeymoon. I went to Hawaii and this stock just crashed. So I think it was 2007. And I remember just texting him from my honeymoon. I said, the only thing I was going to say, I said, listen, Crocs, everybody is wearing them. Everybody owns them here. Everybody loves them. It's just like I can't believe. But anyway, this is a name that has gone incredibly higher. Again, a lot of these names are off people's radars, but it just goes to show you that this is where the growth is and you have to be invested in growth. You have to be willing to adapt value. Okay, I get it. You see these value stocks and you like (13/35)
to buy them. People like to buy them. But this is where these companies receive huge premiums. But just to show you some of those names, I mean, how do you come up with those names? What's the screening process not giving away your secret sauce? But, you know, talk about that, because people might be like, oh, he's just pulling out some growth names. There's tons of growth names that are not in here. And there's others that are. So what separates some, again, looking at those numbers, listen to conference calls you said. But what are some of the big differences in investing in where you might have avoided Zillow, which got crushed out of nowhere compared to some of these other names that made the portfolio? Yeah, so it's a pretty multi-pronged approach. First of all, everything is going to start with how the stock is trading. And I know that it's hard to explain that, but we built a mechanized process to basically be a net that we cast out every single day. We look for all of the (14/35)
stocks that are getting bought and sold. And this is basically just data analysis. We are assuming that this is what's happening. And there are a handful of stocks that come on the radar. So I group those by what's getting bought. Then there is a score that is attached to them. And the highest ranked stocks, the ones that are scoring really well in fundamentals, they're scoring really well in technicals. They all float to the top. And then what's really interesting is, you know, there's a lot of new stocks that came along this year, but very few of them are going to score really high, right? So we're able to weed out a lot of the names that just don't look that good on paper. They don't have a long trading history. And so day after day, I start to see the same stocks getting bought. So that tells me there's probably an institution behind that, right? Because a lot of these newer stocks, these smaller stocks, you're a big institution. You can't get in these things in one day, right? (15/35)
You're too big. So you have to break it up over multiple days. So that's where it comes on my radar. And then I go and do some due diligence. I actually look up the company, try to understand their business, try to figure out how big is their addressable market. And then from there, I kind of put myself into a portfolio manager's shoes and I asked myself, is this growth rate priced in? Yes or no. And is Wall Street behind the ball? And if I can say yes, you know, that Wall Street is probably behind the ball, then that's where we go smack dab into these. And just like you said, there's a lot of these names that are not on people's radar, right? I'm on social media. I don't have a big following or anything, but I can see the names that are trending. A lot of these names are not trending. And that is a good thing, right? Because no one wants to be on the front page with some of these stocks and you're starting to see, when the juice starts to flow into these names, right? It's some pretty (16/35)
big moves. No, it is incredible. And when I'm looking at your subscription page again, because this is very simple, right? So we've provided a big money report of Curzio Research, which you're the editor on. And this is like simple buys, right? So this is a simple strategy. This is what you would buy. You're going to see lots of winners, a couple of losers in the portfolio doing extremely well. And when I look at another company, again, I'm only giving away a hold here, is something that you recommend like a little over a month ago, which is Mimecast. And that's up 17%. Now, this is great for average investors, but we are now going to launch another product, Big Money Trader, which is kind of, you know, big money report on steroids, where you're going to provide option strategies, where you see this, where you can take advantage right away. And for example, what I'm seeing some of these gains, if you did use the option strategy that you, and very, very simple, right? We'll break that (17/35)
down a second. I mean, the gains on these would be accelerated. I mean, you know, just tremendously higher. Talk about that, because this is a product I'm looking forward to. You're an option specialist. Options are red hot right now. It's never been more busy options. You've seen that across every exchanges with the contracts trading as to every place. It's unbelievable how many people are in options now, compared to just like two, three years ago. I mean, it's a big deal. And now bringing this to this portfolio to accelerate the gains on some of these things is pretty incredible. And you also have a system in place where, you know, you have a way to reduce some of that risk, right? So why don't you explain that? Because that's a product we're launching this month, which we're very excited about. Real quick, if you're a Curzio One investor, which is our premium membership, you're getting beta versions of this right now, which is cool. So now this is going to officially launch this (18/35)
month. But talk about that new product and how it's different from this and the options strategies, because to me, that's really, really exciting. And that's what a lot of people want. They want to maximize their gains when they're right. And I think that's what this newsletter is going to do. Definitely. So with Big Money Report, the first thing to know is that it's more of a longer term strategy, right? I'm literally trying to pick up on some big things that are happening with some great growth stocks. When it comes to Big Money Trader, and I'll be honest, I'm not the biggest trader in the world, but we're going to use the same type of process that we use with Big Money Report. But we're going to kickstart it a little bit, if you will. And so to do that, you know, some stocks aren't going to be going up in a straight line. Sometimes they're going to come under pressure. Sometimes they are going to come out of favor. And so we are going to look for some really strong risk reward is (19/35)
very positive in our favor option setups for those types of stocks. So again, we're going to be looking at high quality stocks. These are going to be the names that we love that we think are going to be the, you know, the next big winner, but we'll be able to take advantage of that with options. And what's really great about that is options allow you options, you know? And so one of my favorite strategies that I love to do is to sell a downside put and buy an upside call. And that's basically called a risk reversal, right? So it's like a synthetic long stock. And I know, you know, some people may not have done that, but what it's going to allow you to do is like, let's just say it's a great stock. It comes down. It was $70 before. Now it fell to 50. You know, we might be looking to sell a 45 strike put to buy the 60 strike call. And what that's going to allow us to do is what I would say heads you win and tails you win, right? So if the stock blasts higher, we're going to participate (20/35)
with that call in the upside. And if the stock falls lower, well, you'll have that obligation to buy the stock in this example at 45. So you're buying the stock lower than where it is already, right? We're talking about a great stock that's already fallen and we're going to be looking for setups where we can buy it lower. But if we're wrong, it doesn't go lower, it goes higher. We participate to the upside. And that is a great risk reward strategy that I've done for years. And that's one of the main themes that we'll be looking for in the big money trader. Yeah. It seems like even when you're looking at that risk, you know, even say, if that falls tremendously below your price, you're still saving money compared to if you bought it at the actual price instead of using the strategy, right? That's exactly right. And that is the worst case scenario, right? That is the worst case scenario. So it's not just the risk reversal option strategies. You're going to be buying calls as well. And (21/35)
also just buying some of these names that you see that are mispriced, right? That come up in your system that you need to get out really, really quick. And again, it's more, you know, we call it big money trader, but, you know, more to take advantage of quick movements in stocks and things like that. But, you know, it's not just options. It's also, you're going to be buying regular stocks to take advantage of, you know, short-term movements as well, right? Totally. So, you know, there might be people out there that don't want to sell a put and buy a call, right? Listen, if you're not comfortable with that, the other strategy that we're going to be doing is just buying straight calls, right? So if a stock falls or it has, you know, it's breaking out to a level, the options look really nice. They look cheap relative to history. We might just buy a call, right? Participate on the upside, right? That's going to allow you to leverage, you know, long exposure to the stock. And then also, you (22/35)
know, sometimes option market just doesn't make sense. So we'll just go in and we'll buy the stock just like we do in Big Money Report. But what's really interesting is we're going to be doing two of these trades a month, I believe, compared to one a month for Big Money Report. So, you know, there's going to be a lot more stocks coming on the radar with Big Money Trader just because of the frequency. Yeah. And it's going to sound funny when I say this, but I'm like, so, and this is how it's going to be, right? I mean, that's not a line for me. And I think you get a test to this. Whenever I bring someone on to write newsletters, I want them to write about what they want to write about, what they're comfortable about, what they're great at doing. And that's not me saying, hey, you know what? Look, you should do this. You should do that. I mean, it's the independence where you're like, hey, you could disagree with even some of the things I'm saying in my newsletter or agree with them, (23/35)
whatever. But I learn about this stuff too, saying, okay, so what else is going to be included? It's not just a line. So what else is going to be included? That for me, I'm curious of what else is going to be included because I want you to have that independence and just, I like unleashing talent and what you're great at. So to see this product coming out, I'm very excited because I know that if we had those options strategies on top of the Big Money report, just off of those picks since February, since you started that newsletter, I mean, you would see accelerated returns. So I think a lot of people are going to be excited about this. What about the educational portion? Because you are going to be doing some videos. I am setting up a text service for this because it's a trading newsletter. It's not going to be for every service. We're trying to get that out as quick as possible. This way you could send texts right away, which I know, Luke, that you're pretty happy about. Behind the (24/35)
scenes, there is a process. It's a publishing process where it has to get edited and go out and it takes a little time. We know what options, every second counts. But what else do they get? So, I mean, you have a guy there showing this and I love the video component. Talk about that a little bit, because I could tell when you're doing your videos that you really love it and you come across genuine. You come across like you like it and you're educating and you care and it's all, you see that in a video. And sometimes you don't see that in writing. Some people are great writers. You can see it, but just the video component, it seems like you're having fun with that. And that's going to be a component of this as well, right? Yeah. So the videos are really interesting. So just so everyone knows behind the scenes, whenever you write a piece, right? You're going to be posting this to anywhere, right? Curzio Research. There's a team of people that are editing it, making sure that it actually (25/35)
flows and all of that. Well, when it comes to video, we have this lessons with Luke, which is really cool. And they allow me to do whatever I want. I mean, look, I try to educate. I want everyone to have fun. Look, I'm from Louisiana. I like to use simple words, right? I am not trying to confuse anybody. I want to use things as examples in our real life, that we all can relate to. And so I just try to break down some of the stuff that I learned while trading over, I think, almost 20 years, might be over 20 years now, getting up there. And so, we'll be talking about options. We'll be talking about, there's some videos that I've done where I break down how to buy a call option, how to do a risk reversal, right? And obviously, you're going to have to watch it a couple of times to understand it, but it's enough to get you going. And I think that that's one thing that people are missing out there is like, there's a lot of stuff out there about options or Wall Street, whatever, it's on (26/35)
YouTube. But just trying to bring that hometown easy to understand language, I think just makes it a little bit more enjoyable. So, at this point, they're having a lot of fun making these videos. And Frank, I will say that at some point, the more you guys let me do this, I'm going to start bringing in the rodeo clowns and the college students and all that. But look, I'm just trying to have fun. You told me before we started to work together, just be you. I want you to have fun. I want you to do strategies that you enjoy doing. And that is what we're doing here. So, it's really an extension of my brain whenever we put all this stuff together. But I mean, the team behind the scenes, that's where all the glory should go because they do a lot of work. Yeah. I mean, yeah, they're okay. I don't want to give them too much credit, right? Otherwise it takes away the credit from us, right? But I think the team is and stuff that did great and get stuff out, right? I mean, I'm doing videos (27/35)
literally for all my products and the next day you're getting it. And that is impossible. Even in, I don't even know competitors that do that. They get it out that quickly, but that's how great our team is. Save someone wants to sign up to this newsletter, right? So, this is going to be a higher price newsletter because it is option-based, a lot more work, a lot more trades. If someone who is not familiar with options, if you're familiar with options, it's a no-brainer and people understand it. But say if you're not familiar, I mean, you have the Big Money Trader guidebook going through that in the videos. Talk about the educational component because I think that is the biggest part when people are getting into options, it scares them. And they think that every option means that you have unlimited risk and you're going to get crushed. And, you know, they don't really understand it because they never really did it. But a lot of these people don't know that you could do these options (28/35)
strategies and it's very easy simply through your online brokerage account, right? Yeah, that's correct. And you know, people may not realize this, but I have some options courses that I taught years ago and thousands of people have taken them. And the approach that I took back then was to make sure that everyone understands their risk whenever they're doing an options trade, right? And it's not that options are scary. You just have to know what you're doing. Right. And so I get that it might be a little hard for people to wrap their heads around. So behind the scenes, whenever you sign up for any of my products, is there is a trading guide where not only do we walk you through exactly how buying a call, like what that looks like and what's involved and what are the mechanics, but also doing a risk reversal trade. Right. And that's also a little bit of a higher level strategy. But we go over it not only in, you know, the written word, but also we're doing it via video. And I'm going to (29/35)
continue to make these videos just so everyone is very clear on what we're trying to do. Right. All of the strategies that I do, whether it's big money report, big money trader, they're all, you know, bullish. Right. So you don't have to worry about, you know, unlimited losses, which is if you were short some stock or you sold some call, that's not what we're going to be doing. We're going to be making bullish bets. And so your risk is limited, but you do need to know a little bit before you get started if it's all new to you. And I try my hardest to explain options, which can be so difficult. I remember when I, you know, the first week I started working on Wall Street, I was on a derivatives desk and literally people were, you know, they were speaking French, they were speaking Greek. They threw this big options Bible on my desk and they're like, learn this. And then finally I had a full one of the guys over, which I'm friends with today. I was like, you got to break this down into (30/35)
easy to understand language, the way he taught me. I'm able to impart a lot of that wisdom into other people because it's not that complicated. No, that's great stuff. That's great stuff. And again, I really love the educational content and everything you've been doing for us. I mean, you can tell you care. I think you come off genuine. And that's all I want. You know, I want people to, you know, you're educating investors. You're teaching them for me. I can always look in the mirror and be very happy what we're doing for investors here. Again, we're all going to have losers. We're going to teach you guys how to avoid them, how to limit your risk, what you do. And I just love the work you're doing, but I'm looking forward to launching your new service, a big money traded this month. I think you see lots of demand for it because especially from your current subscribers to a big money report who, you know, just accelerating those games or options strategy to be unbelievable. So I'm very (31/35)
excited to launch. It's coming out in a couple of weeks, really good stuff. And I want, just want to say, thanks for all the hard work you're doing for us. I really appreciate it. And thanks for coming on, man. It means a lot. Frank, I'm going to say back at you, man. It has been a lot of fun. I like working with the team. I like what you're doing. Wall Street is unplugged. I believe it. And so I'm just glad to be along for the ride. Nah, it's awesome. That's awesome. All right, man. So I'll be talking to you soon. I know over the next couple of days and yeah, anybody questions, comments, feel free to email me at frankkurserysearch.com and you're going to see lots of emails coming out with this new product we're really excited about. So Luke, thanks again so much for coming on and I know you join us again soon. All right. See ya. All right, man. So, uh, guys, listen, uh, really exciting stuff with, with a new product is a new backend product. We haven't launched it in a while. Uh, if (32/35)
you're interested to know, to learn more about Luke's service, if you, you know, you're not a current subscriber, go to big money report.com. Uh, just put your email in the box. You're going to get access to all this free content, everything for free. I want you to see everything that he's doing first before he decides to subscribe. Cause I know a lot of his current subscribers to be one report are going to be lined up to buy this newsletter because of the performance of what he's doing and his strategy and how easy it is to learn this stuff, which he's going to be teaching you. So, uh, really great stuff. Glad I have him on our team. He's a guy who could have went anywhere. He chose us and, uh, you know, I really respect that and just want to unleash him. He is, he said that he has a big social media following. I think that's going to change. You're seeing subscribers. I'm seeing, uh, more and more people email in and saying, great job, Luke. I love what he's doing here. So, uh, it's (33/35)
really cool to get guys like that, uh, working with you. And that's what we want to do going forward, put the right people in front of you, help you make money and educate you. So really happy Luke's part of this team. And that's it for me again, to find out more information, especially on Luke, uh, you could go to, uh, big money report.com. Again, I'll give you access to all those free concepts you can take a look at. And then we'll be sending out special offers to subscribers and, you know, Curzio research people only, uh, which you'll get if you're interested. And, uh, yeah, so that's it for me. Really appreciate all the support. Love you guys. And I'll see you next week. Take care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio research. One of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on wall street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your (34/35)
money and your responsibility. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - What I need to see to turn bullish….
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there. It's September 6th I'm Frank gorgeous the Washington podcast. We break the headlines and Today what's really moving these markets Hopefully you enjoy the nice long weekend College football starting Pro Football starts next week, which is a great thing in history Which is awesome, but now it's back to work Some kind of officially over and I'm starting to get a lot of questions because of my last monologue Right told you I'm nervous about the markets So the Fed is clueless looking to raise rates significantly from here while shrinking its balance sheet the same time as What? China is in horrible horrible shape horrible shape Europe is even worse US indicators showing clear signs inflation is moderating velocity of money levels not seen since a Great Depression where money (1/35)
is clearly clearly flowing out of the market Feds achieving its goal. Well, they're not admitting it housing market we can Significantly where even going forward. We're not gonna see all while housing is going up and another leg up No, there's few people taking out mortgages with rates over Four and a half percent five percent an hour five and a half percent They almost pushed to six percent and remember the Fed wants go higher and higher here Look what's going on with the ten-year high. It is three point three The two-year forget it Unbelievable showing signs of recession right cuz inverted PMI services terrible horrible number You see Frank well rent. Yes rents big component of CPI is gonna stay high for a bit So will food not all food. We've seen that roll over as well explain that a minute we've seen energy roll over and There's lots of bulls out there lots of bulls and they make a great case looking at supply demand imbalances and what's going on. I covered oil for over 20 years I (2/35)
visited major shell areas I talked to people who are much much smarter than me and There's one certainty when it comes to oil That oil Always always always always adjusts it's a cyclical market It's the ultimate cyclical market Well higher price result many people are finding ways to cut back and they do this every time the price of oil surges every time You can say well uranium cyclical and corn is cyclical or this come out of your cyclical it's not like oil And oil I mean hits our wallet immediately right with gas prices Energy prices electricity price it hits us immediately and we adjust we always adjust we saw we're seeing in the band numbers Now you're right When it comes to Russia when it comes to shutting off, which isn't a real supply that's surprised they shut off Well, right. I mean most analysts into those can happen There's on the table or in the works for over a month Russia saying the maintenance is causing it when we know it's not maintenance But Let's see what happens (3/35)
because when we're looking at oil as it goes higher people adjust gonna be wrong this absolutely Absolutely, but you're looking at oil coming down pretty sharply and not only that Hurricane season what happened hurricane season not it not existent not existed. No hurricanes three storms name I'm afraid to use that term non-existent Given I live in Florida. I don't want to jinx it But two straight months from July 30 to today where there's been no hurricanes name the storms If you look at August specifically, this is the first time just to put this in perspective because I had to look this up in 25 years Where in August have been no hurricanes name for the month. In fact, if you date back for seven decades This only happened twice two other times The hurricane season extends through November and we've gotten very bad hurricanes I'm not saying that all everything is cool. But when you see our arcades come it's a nice pop In energy prices usually and we don't have that either again That's (4/35)
temporary and we see that adjust just like we see it seasonally in terms of the holidays in the summer and more driving And stuff like that, but people adjust They do they adjust I adjust it We're gonna rent because you know gasoline prices even at this these levels where you know Whatever they 25% lower than they were 30% lower than they were there's still much higher than they were a year ago But we're like effort. I'm gonna get an apartment near our house that we're building and make it easier for us My hope was stay there. I'll go there at night on and off back and forth We're adjusting everybody's gonna adjust you can't afford it You can't afford it especially when you're seeing your portfolios down 20% plus which aren't there down 20% plus if you own any growth names if you Outperformed that did well in a market in the last 10 years chances are you own a lot of the fang names which are all Getting crushed technology is getting crushed and video is getting crushed The only s to be (5/35)
adjusting. They're used to these markets. They lived with them before the almost got destroyed in 2008 They got bailed out Under the table under under under the table when they were allowed to report those losses those years losses Well, you can count those losses to gains for that got extended to three years That's why home builds were the biggest buys I Remember researching that and then I'm telling Kramer 2010-11 wasn't there anymore. He's like holy shit did a whole segment on it mention me He's like this incredible those things just surged It's a pretty big deal when you can take three years of losses against You know all the profits that you're gonna generating which profits surged Maybe not the first year, but the next two years right housing back back significantly didn't have to pay any taxes What does that result in more buybacks? I? Won't say dividends but much more buybacks better balance sheets huge cash flow, but if you look at these statistics, they're real Don't get lots (7/35)
of questions about What do I need to see or what do we need to see when it comes to the economy? You know for me to change my mind or not to be so nervous about the marks over the next six to twelve months And there are a few things the Fed needs to address That they are seeing signs of inflation slow doesn't mean that they have to say that they're gonna ease But they have to see something cuz right now. They're balls to the wall. It's crazy and people look at this I'm even seeing a lot of Not a lot two or three economists. I mean listen it's podcast But starting to say listen to the Fed the Fed's pretty crazy They're looking to go over four percent without even looking at what's coming out ahead And if you look at the last month and a half two months of data. Holy shit. What a difference It was compared to two months prior Massive and yes, we're still up I'm not saying six seven percent inflation Holy shit, but it's drastically coming down and it like in a light switch, and we see it (8/35)
industry to industry to industry We saw what oil we saw it with retailers immediately, holy shit we have tons of inventory out of nowhere What happens supply chain concerns chip market now in a glut what the hell happened? I thought they couldn't get some enough supply now you're in a glut like immediately it happens When demand shuts off it shuts off like a light switch, that's twice so tough being a retail business and people change in Days, and it's almost impossible to predict you try to predict it, but it's difficult Obviously the people with the best algorithms of the world Target Walmart Amazon got this totally totally totally wrong Balls of war producing holy cow we gotta get our supply chains better They did a great job and then got all this inventory and holy cow demand I know we're stopped these are the guys who know everything about everyone in the world and they got it wrong Now the Fed needs to address this hey inflation is slowing, but we're gonna keep our eye on it. (9/35)
That would be good I mean we're gonna get a hot CPI number based on rents, which are starting to come down, but we'll take time And rents are fixed Right they go up year over year. Yes. They're up significantly year over year the month over month is starting to come down But it's not like holy cow food. I need to buy it buy it buy it buy It's not like your rents going up every single month. It's getting adjusted. Maybe a year Maybe two years three years depending on your lease or whatever But it's gonna take a while for that number to come down Which means gonna be a hot CPI number so hopefully the Fed doesn't just say hey, okay? High CPI we need to come down faster, and we're gonna raise They continue this rhetoric of we don't see any signs of inflation slowing I'm gonna continue to aggressively raise rates into next year to control inflation no matter what it's gonna be terrible for equities It's gonna be horrible for equities. You know why? Because we're in a zero growth market I (10/35)
mean you look at GDP numbers coming down crashing all over the world and Countries are sitting on more debt than any time in their histories by raising rates can continue to raise rates We're increasing the cost of servicing that debt is the Fed monitoring that are they seeing what's going on other countries I mean Russia is still a wild card One things I would love to see some easing of tensions I mean if this happens over the next three six months, which is unlikely That's seen any signs of that. We're gonna see food prices come down also all prices pull back even further most likely That would be great for the markets But the data we need to see data if you're asking me. You know what's gonna. Cheat. We need to continue to see data That's showing inflation is moderating I mean so PWC come out with a study suggesting or Estimating based on their survey the 50 cent of companies asked me 500 gonna be laying off workers I Think that number is conservative since earnings are declining (11/35)
year over year when you strip out energy And it's important to strip out energy We're not just taking it and stripping it out like the shrink strip it out food energy or whatever But energy is a major component. It's on fire without it. We would have saw earnings decline 4% year over year instead they're up 6% That's the difference in energy where profits are up close to 300% year over year 300% for a sector not a company a sector that might make sense to you looking at prices, but 300% holy cow but speaking of earnings We need to see estimates come down, and you know what we are finally finally like the heavens finally seeing it This is facts that reports I'd tell you this is free information It's one of the greatest reports that you'll get for free market related. It's going to go with a fact set earnings It just came out. This is data. I believe is from yesterday So analysts have lowered their estimates significantly into q3 as you line August which we all know have been slowing (12/35)
dramatically Dramatically So July and August or what the first two months which are calculated to next course earnings with September being the third July and August have been incredibly slow to where earnings estimates have been lowered by five point four percent in August That's how much the S&P 500 earnings when they package them all together all the earnings That's how much it's been lowered five point four percent in August those estimates. You don't hear about this Upgrades downgrades and when they report you're gonna say did they beat that number did not be the number You're not gonna know that number was $2 But now it's a dollar fifty and then they report a dollar sixty and everybody celebrates and say wow they beat by ten cents That's what you're used. That's what they're conditioning you to believe. It's still the number still a dollar sixty and it was supposed to be two dollars That's my take on Disney when they say they beat the numbers and losing more money They ever lost (13/35)
and their earnings have not even come close to going back to pre-covid levels One the only companies in the Dow that I could say that outside of Boeing But yeah, they're beating cuz estimates have been lowered now Let's put that in perspective that five point four percent in August because that's just a it's a percentage It sounds like it's small. Is it big? I don't know Gotta put things in perspective if you go back ten years the average decline in earnings per share over the first two months of any Quarter, this is fact set for you great research Have been two point seven percent. This is double that That's a massive revision massive it shows you that earnings are coming down significantly So revisions are more than double the average and I got news for you They're gonna come down even more So my companies are seeing this if you strip out earnings and you look at the rest of earnings for the rest of SP 500 those sectors They're coming down when you see earnings coming down year over (14/35)
year It means that you're going to probably lay off employees you have to cut costs That's the easiest way to do it. And if you're looking at the earnings, it's broad-based There's nine of the eleven sectors have seen the estimates cut by analysts Which is a good sign this means that expectations are being lowered However, if you look more closely at the data Which I did and I want you guys to take a look at this if you're on our YouTube page You could see it. If not, if you're listening to this pull up a fact set and You're gonna be amazed If you look at earnings are gonna be pretty bad next quarter to where they've already been revised significantly lower But we're likely to see this for the next two to three quarters where we could see negative year over year Earnings per share I would say growth but it's not growth Which is basically an earnings recession you're not gonna see because you got to strip out energy But you know what? Let's bring some of this up and I'm gonna share it (15/35)
right now So you're looking at the sector level S&P 500 I'm just gonna change this input really quick So you can see my arrow on here so S&P 500 sector level change Then this is q3 2022 earnings per share and explain everything even though some people be watching this way If you're not watching you can understand it. If you look at energy so the sector level change in q3 2022 earnings per share Right from June 30 to August 31st You're looking at energy is up nine point six percent. Remember I said nine out of the eleven sectors The other sectors real estate's up. It's a point one percent Now look at the rest of the sectors utilities, okay flat it's down point one percent Financials down four percent industrials down four percent S&P 500 overall again down five point four percent Healthcare down seven half percent materials down seven point nine percent consumer discretionary down eight percent Information technology down nine percent communication services down almost thirteen percent (16/35)
I mean, this is recession all over it you strip out energy. You got recession all over this. I Mean it's crazy So these are the earnings revisions. This is how much if you're looking at on average is you know five point four percent Which will give you the bottoms up If you're looking at these numbers, it's insane of the declines that we're seeing Of how they're pulling back finally, which is good. That's a good sign If we keep going here, there's other things here that I wanted to show you So looking at S&P 500 calendar year 2022 complete the calendar year 2023 earnings. Okay, this is all the earnings guys That are packed into the S&P 500 together. Okay, if you take them all together They're expected to finish a year at 226 Last year, I believe they closed at 210. So we're still gonna see earnings growth this year despite how terrible the markets been Do you really think we should be seeing earnings growth? No, a lot of that is energy but 226 is a big number but more importantly (17/35)
they're expecting 2023 to be 243 So $243 in earnings with all the S&P 500 companies again, that's over seven percent growth and at 226 That's seven percent growth from last year In recession every time when GDP is slowing where companies are looking to lay off employees We've seen inventory concerns now you see in supply chain guts Gluts in semiconductors you really think earnings are gonna grow close to eight percent Annually over the next two years this year and next year. There's no effing way that's gonna happen There's no way that's gonna happen. I Mean, it's crazy when you think about it, but you get to Net profit margins it gets even crazier Right net profit margins people like oh, well, we have to raise prices We have to raise prices no matter what because of inflation. It's amazing that profit margins are incredibly high They're higher than the five-year average. They're over 12% That's something I could show you as well But if you're looking here energy was a largest (18/35)
contributor So when you look at net profit margin for the SP 500 like well, you know They're keeping up with their margins, which is good. That should be good for stocks Yeah, you gotta break it down further because if you look at energy energy Their profit margins went from six and a half percent to fourteen point four percent. It's a major percentage and major part of the net profit margin of the average But Even say on the other hand nine sectors are reporting I've reported a year-over-year decrease and their net profit margins in q2 2022 compared to q2 2021 nine out of 11 sectors Right, and that's right here on the fact set report nine out of 11 sectors. Again YouTube. Absolutely free. You can see the charts I like bringing this stuff up when I'm going through it. That's pretty crazy Seeing profit margins. What does that mean if profit margins are coming down? It means that You're not seeing inflation. Yeah, you've seen it in energy You know energy prices have come down there's (19/35)
still up year over year again They're gonna be stubbornly high even at eighty six dollars, but natural gas prices are through the roof still So close to the highs at 850 and I think nine with their highs whatever and forget it what where they are in Europe I mean, I don't mean to laugh. I'm laughing sarcastically, but holy shit. I Mean it is crazy over there It's a crisis And people could die because they're not gonna have the energy to heat their homes during winter It's crazy. They're absolutely crazy But you look at those net profit margins. What does it tell you? It tells you that the Fed rate hikes are working They're working but the Fed is just totally blind I don't know if they're blind or just fed speak because they don't want to stimulate the market They don't want money right away. Holy cow. Let's go. It's gonna go higher. Everybody's gonna be all it No, I get it, but they are really you don't have to go that far and say no matter what? They're going past 4% and we're not (20/35)
even gonna ease them for the next 16 months Like they could predict more than three months we've seen the feds track record over the past two years It's the worst. It's the worst ever if you had a four-year-old kid They would have predicted the market and when it came to inflation better than the Fed It's a joke. He's supposed to be the smartest guys in the room. I Mean you couldn't be more wrong than them, but you're looking at profit margins, right? I mean the data is there for the world to see earnings and profit margin for 90% of the sectors and SP 500 declining year over year and It's gonna get worse just where rates are right now Think about that and the Fed wants to continue tightening So you have to be careful here and Look, we've got familiar with the term for 10 years. Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the Fed Zero interest rates all the bears telling you the marks gonna crash marks gonna create doesn't when you have a printing machine That's on 24 hours a (21/35)
day and it doesn't matter. It was a buy the dip mentality, but don't fight The Fed is not just a bullish term It shouldn't be used just for bull markets Because you can't fight the Fed here, right? I mean it was used a million times against those bears or millions of times The marks gonna crash get a crash get a crash right when you have zero interest rates massive money printing quantitative easy It wasn't gonna happen but now look I mean buying stocks here you're fighting the Fed a Fed who says interest rates are going to go significantly higher from here. That's what they said They said we will be shrinking our balance sheet take more dollars out of the economy You're gonna see it right now starting now. You're seeing it going forward Whatever it is 90 billion 100 billion a lot of shrinking to do I won't get into the dollar dollar being higher helps that a little bit, but And put in perspective. We're looking at the balance sheet increasing by 4 trillion to what 9 trillion over the (22/35)
past year You could do the math on it if you're taking say a hundred billion out of the market a month What is that gonna do? What 1.2 billion after a year for I mean 1.2 trillion so 4 trillion you're looking I mean, you're not gonna shrink up by that much but just goes to show you It's just another drag It's another drag in the economy You have to realize the Fed here it's this is the Fed this is a market about the Fed You look at earnings can't look at Russia, okay, it's the feds 100% the Fed if you're gonna buy equities the Fed It's the Fed right now That's all you need to be focused on because they are God when it comes to the markets they control money They control the world if you don't think so look where the dollar is right now against almost any other currency outside of the room Which is my bottom Yours at 20 year lows against a dollar yen is at 24 year lows against all ones that near a two-year low They're inflating it when did you ever see China inflate their currency (23/35)
They're telling their banks to they can't hold as many foreign currencies foreign dollars at banks Hold your own currency. When do you see that? Holy cow? That's not a sign that China's horrible right now. I don't know what is But for me you gotta look at September September is Extremely important this is where the Fed and this whatever 20 21st whatever date that is right around there could check it Oh Be let you know exactly what that date is going up to as we get closer and closer But the feds gonna raise rates by 50 basis points. They're not gonna do 75 basis points I don't think so unless they're complete idiots. They don't need to But the rhetoric around that is very very important the Fed speak is going to be significant Because even as we look the markets today Mean they're trying to catch a bid as a technical suggest We're given oversold conditions and it looks like the marks gonna bounce back really quick and then pull whatever the technicals I don't care about the technicals. (24/35)
I really don't you want to trade the market trade the market I care about the next six to twelve months But what do we see so the market try to catch a bid today and then pull back by 10 o'clock and now Might be up a little bit back and forth, but you know, you seen this, you know sell into strength opportunity Sell sell some members buy the dip buy the dip buy the dip It seems like every time we got strength it sell into it because there's so many uncertainties Again Europe is a disaster. China is horrible the property market is Terrible is crashing. They're trying to hide as much they can they can't there's too many people that have fed up That are actually reporting and getting their news out Just like they did during kovat finally how many people reported that disappeared? Wuhan, they're reporting saying we got this virus here in December. People are dying. All the hospitals are full We don't know what's going on yet China did the most wonderful thing in the world they closed (25/35)
travel to the rest of the world to all of China from one But if you live in Wuhan, you could travel to the rest of the world if you want. That's okay While they were preaching for the next two months that hey This is a contagious. It's not human for you human a human transmission That's what they said and they even got the who was on the payroll To buy in and say wow China was the best they were amazing they were unbelievable with their response You can hate Donald Trump, but the one good thing he did was cut funding to that piece of shit organization I mean give me a break They weren't even even allowed into China and they said that China would not let anyone in to help them out People want the countries were like listen, we'll help you. Let's see what's going on. They're like, no no, no, no. No, isn't that a sign? Doesn't that tell you where it started? You're gonna believe China what's going on right now? It is horrible terrible being underreported still It's a disaster People are (26/35)
starting to rise up against the government never happens Can't get your money out of banks Shits frozen still lockdowns over kovat when you think they would know more about code than anyone Why are you locking down during kovat which is a cold for most people and we know who to protect You know you created it. You should know all these stats. Come on. Why are you closing down everything? It's a disaster It'll be interesting to see how much of the metals and things and steel and everything else They're gonna be dumping on our market because they have such a surplus of it right now. Let's see When it comes to the Fed, that's the biggest question mark Because I'm struggling to find any growth catalyst any I mean again Europe China you look at Russia Ukraine war I mean South America gonna pick up the world though It's all about the US The feds doing everything its power to slow growth further, which is Insane right now. You may say Frank. What about the cows where stocks are cheap. Are we (27/35)
cheap? I mean some sectors and individual names are no doubt cheap But if you're looking at SP 500 as a whole Earnings are coming down estimates are coming down which means that SP 500 stays where it is Right stays where it is The fold PE is gonna go higher gets more expensive since the earnings estimates are going lower If you think we would be trading at 15 times earnings We're still trading at 70 times forward earnings because earnings are being revised lower and lower and lower So if those you think the SP fine is gonna go up as it goes up and earnings go lower It's gonna get really really expensive pretty quickly But it's 70 times forward earnings. That's around the five-year average. We're not dirt cheap. We're not like super cheap. We buying pennies Your assets for pennies on the dollar So it's all about the Fed right now. That's everything. That's what's confusing. That's what people are You know people like me months ago seen the bottom market saying hey, you know what? It's a (28/35)
good time goal in the feds definitely gonna change it to September But man Jackson hole and what they said and how every one of them were on board and confirmed and just listen They were going 4% for an episode might go higher. Holy shit. Are you not seeing what's going on right now? Are you really not seeing it? It's absolutely crazy That's what the markets looking at right now the Fed. It's the only thing it cares about They should never fight the Fed Not just when the policy is easy from the Fed, but also when it's tightening You start to be cautious here With that said I am picking away at some biotech names in crypto since these sectors have been annihilated annihilated some of these names down 75 80 percent still much more than the markets And the Fed goes balls to the wall and says, you know what we are raising rates We're gonna continue to raise rates Yes, some of these names are gonna get hit probably not as hard as the rest of the market because they're down so much There's (29/35)
lots of biotech great biotech names trading below net cash right now however If the Fed just hints and says look We're gonna look at Titan but we're gonna look at the data right now The data is clearly showing that inflation is moderating. It's still too high But it's a good sign that we're seeing it moderating That's a totally different tone than we don't see any sign at all and we're gonna pedal to the metal That's a big difference and the Fed does that first option and says look we still see inflation. We're moderating it We're not gonna do anything stupid here, but we are seeing what we've done already. We've seen the effect they're working That's gonna be a boom to the market and the stocks that you're investing in right now. I would throw crypto in there I would throw biotech in there and I would throw small caps in general in there because man there are some great Great companies in there trading a dirt cheap valuations again We have to leverage and this is what happens in (30/35)
markets when you have to leverage it doesn't happen often It's every 10 years 15 years or so We see these massive to leverage in people over leverage and they got so much money in the market and it creates forced Selling of even good assets that come down tremendously just like we saw with the housing crisis 2010 I live in front ending the beach Amelia Island and When I moved here in 2010 90% Probably more than 90% of the homes on the water right over here on the water. Probably maybe a hundred homes were for sale Because you had probably had three or four different buyers I would leverage no money down that bought all these freaking properties and they just walked away. So I'm gonna walk away I don't have anything down Give me these things are down 20 30 percent. They came to the government those houses They were probably going some of them for 400 500 thousand dollars. They're probably two three four million dollars some of these houses Maybe a million and a half you can get for a (31/35)
cheap one that's on the water, which is the ocean It's not the bay But that's what happens. You only see those major disconnects We'd have it to leverage in process and you're seeing that in small caps where people just you know Running away from risky assets. That's what happens when you move money from the market. That's biotech That's also cryptos and that's about buying, you know Stupid cryptos and utilities had no utility function is I don't know about the good names the top 20 30 names are down significantly And they are really good names. They have utilities and everything Very very good names. That's what I'm looking Because the Fed does change its tone just a little bit These things are gonna go up 2x to 3x in probably a six-month period and if they do that They're still gonna be trading below their 52-week highs. That's how low they are right now They went from 10 to 2 they can go to 6 or 7 and again, they're still well below the 52-week high 10 That's what you're seeing in (32/35)
this area. That's you're gonna be seeing in a lot of my newsletters But you have to be cautious I'm not telling you to sell everything go nuts But if the Fed comes out September and just says the same rather the same exact tone that they had in Jackson Hole watch out Don't be surprised if the market pulls back another 10% through the lows and it's gonna get really really ugly And then maybe the Fed realize oh wait, okay, we do see signs because there's signs everywhere that inflation is moderating everywhere There's also sign inflation not moderating a couple of things Like I said food energy, but if you look at so many so many things Holy cow, and you just talk to people out there. You're starting to see it Wait to the holidays. They're coming up Wait to the holidays wait to Black Friday when you see you're buying TVs for $250 out of 55 inch screens flat screens 4k Then you're gonna realize how much inventory supply these guys have and how much they have to dump it Hopefully we don't (33/35)
have to wait till then We'll see any questions or comments. I'm here for you Now it sounds a little dreary, but I'm being real with you And pick it away at some of the things that are down a lot the Fed should be your main concern That's the only thing right now. That's the growth catalyst that supes everything else Russia China everything else at the Fed reverses tone if not if you throw in all the other risks and pile it up It doesn't look good for equities to look at for any asset class And he has class other than the dollar which is why it continues to search Guys questions comments frankers research.com here for you really appreciate all support. You know I said all the time truly mean it guys Thank you so much Listen to podcast trust in me Subscribing to our products try to provide the best research out there for you guys, but I really really appreciate again Thank you so much for all the support I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio (34/35)
research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember. It's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The easiest way to make money in today's volatile market.
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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's October 19th. I'm Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Talking about last week, the craziness of the markets. It's up, it's down, it's bearish, it's bullish. But I think we all could agree there's lots of risks in the marketplace right now. And you have to be concerned. We all see inflation, no matter what they say, if it's transitory or not, we all see it. You see the inflation risks. You see the labor shortages where, just off of those two risks alone, you're seeing prices are being raised, say at your favorite restaurant, yet the service isn't as good because they have less employees, it's longer, they even close it for days now to account for it. It's (1/35)
not easy to do. I change my habits of different places that I've gone to because prices are higher, but I'm not getting the same service. You can't really do that for long. It's going to hurt a lot of businesses. Some have pricing power and that's fine. Those are big risks. I'm saying stocks are expensive right now, peak earnings. Hey, we'll see. I mean, it's in the heart of earnings season right now. We've seen financials do well, some companies do well. Procter & Gamble didn't really raise. You need to see beats and raises at these valuations. You just can't see beats. And it's tough to raise when you have supply chain issues. China numbers are slowing. How much is Evergrande going to be a problem to real estate industry there? There's lots of stuff there. And those supply chain issues finally, I mean, we've been talking to them for a while. Now you're seeing them everywhere. I still don't think, just because we're talking about them, that there's no risk there because it's supposed (2/35)
to be bottoming and it's not. Apple just cut their iPhone production by 10%. And today I get this report from IHS Market, M-A-R-K-I-T, and they track auto production based on the supply chain issues and chip disruption. And they are the best of the best. This is where I've gotten a lot of information from alone. I get information from you. I love hearing from you. A lot of you are within this industry. Sent me amazing emails months ago. Let me know how terrible it was. And these numbers are available to CEOs of the auto companies and everything. And they were bullshitting you. They were lying through their teeth. Lying through their teeth here six months ago. Saying, hey, this is a Q2 problem and we're good. No way. So IHS Market publishes their reports and forecasts every single week, every single week on Monday. And this Monday's report, they just lowered their production for Q3 and Q4 again. And even before this data was released, it's from Alex Partners, it's all over CNBC. This is (3/35)
about three, four weeks ago. Said the auto industry will lose $210 billion. $210 billion in sales just this year due to the chip shortage. I think that number is conservative. And instead of an IHS Market, cut Q3 and Q4 global auto production figures again. It's now predicted that auto companies will sell roughly 11 million fewer cars this year due to the chip shortage. Which makes that $210 billion number, again, very, very conservative. So still lots of risks out there. But as analysts, we like buying stocks and buying sectors. For what we do, my job, our job is to always find the themes and areas that are working. Because even during the most volatile risky markets, there's almost always something that's working. Almost always. Unless you have crazy, crazy 2008, 2009 credit crisis, nothing was working unless you short the market. And COVID, right? It just came down together and didn't take long, month and a half. Big downfall. We started bouncing up right away. But usually there's (4/35)
things within the market that work. And here's some examples. Look at banking. Our government injected $11 trillion into the market, and they're not done. $11 trillion. $11 trillion. I saw a stat, and I don't know if it's true and I don't want to look it up, but I think they said 45% of all the money ever printed was printed this year. I think it was 45%, I got to check to see if that's correct. I saw economists say that, and I was like, wait a minute, is that really true? Probably $11 trillion directly to consumers and businesses. Giving them free loans. That's great for banks. It's great for investment banks. Maybe invest like crazy. M&A everywhere. And rates are slowly rising, which is also really good for the net interest margins. They're going to expand. We took advantage of this at Curzio Research Advisor, recommend gold in near $200 a share a year ago, a little over a year ago. When everyone hated the financials, said, they're done, they're in trouble. It's over $400, 100% plus (5/35)
gains. And banks still have huge tailwinds behind them. Rates are still low. Money's still pouring into the market. Energy is also working. I missed this one. However, we have exposure to this trend through Dollar Stock Club, which is $4 a month. Basically an introductory letter to show you what we're all about. It's $4 a month, which is nothing. You can cancel whatever you want, but $4 a month to get the best ideas from the people that I interview each week. Write a one-page report on it, include a buyout to price, a stop loss. Got a lot of companies in the portfolio. I worked 100% on Oil, Gas ETF, which is a play off Chris McIntosh, bullish oil thesis. And this is about nine months ago, I think, maybe a year ago. And something I was like, I don't know guys, I don't know if I'm there yet. He was right. We took advantage of it and worked 100% on that. We also bought Tech's Physical Land Trust, which is an oil, gas royalty play. Those of you that have been following me for decades, this (6/35)
is my father's favorite stock pick he recommended in the single digits. I don't know where it is now, holy cow, it's like through the roof. But anyway, we bought that about 15 months ago. It's up 150%. And everything within energy is working. Even coal is working, but shale companies, majors, the services companies, deep water drillers, everything within that industry is working. Uranium. We didn't miss uranium. And holy cow. It's been crazy since, what was it, last month, month and a half ago, Sprott launched his physical uranium fund. But now, just this week, Kazakhstan announced its own physical uranium fund. Gonna buy physical uranium in the open market, expects to raise a half a billion dollars just for this fund. They're following in Sprott's footsteps. And even if you don't understand, it's a fundamental change to the industry because it's hard to get a spot price and price discovery. It's not like oil, natural gas, where you see it. I mean, you can find out what the price is (7/35)
today, but it's hard to get price discovery there. And now it forces it, whereas there's a discount on these things, they're buying uranium on the open market. That's pushing prices higher. It's a fundamental change to the industry. Being able to buy physical uranium every time the price drops, that was never the case. And then you have the whole ESG movement behind that, where you have to throw uranium in there as one of the best clean energies, which is abundant, cheap, clean, safe, 24-hour base load unlike solar and wind. UK this week, the UK adoption, they needed to hit the net zero emission strategy. You have Japan talking about bringing their closed nuclear plants back online. Big deal. Holy cow. And demand from electricity companies is surging. They must lock in prices now. And they have to do this. They're at a risk paying 20, 50% more months from now. And you look at the price, is 47, 48, so it is right now. I mean, they say you need 55 to really break even, 55 maybe a little (8/35)
bit higher than that. But they're well over 120 pounds a pound pre-Fukushima. The market just went to shit since 2010. But conditions right now are much better than pre-Fukushima in terms of fundamentals, supply demand imbalances, more countries adopting nuclear to satisfy the green energy needs, and much more about the position than back then. We had Amir Adnani who's just totally engulfed in this industry his whole career. We had him on September 2nd when uranium prices were at $33 a pound, now 48. It was because of 50 cent gains in less than two months. We recommended the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust through his interview, and the stock's up 30%, 45 days. He's a chairman of Uranium Royalty, which we're up 85% in, in Dollar Stock Club. Then we also have UEC in the portfolio. That was after, that's Amir Adnani company, but I interviewed Spencer Abraham, former Secretary of Energy, who was the chairman of UEC. Not long ago, we're up 100% on that name. So you're taking advantage of (9/35)
different areas. And hopefully you have exposure to this industry because this is not a short-term trend. So a price going from 35 to 50, back down to 40. Now they're pushing 50 again. It's going to be volatile, but overall, you're going to see a lot of names do very, very well going forward. And I wouldn't be surprised in six months from now if we see prices at $75. I wouldn't be surprised at all. And these physical funds, money's pouring into them. It's a way for hedge funds to get into this market. It's very difficult for them to get into this market. There's not a lot of great plays that are volatile, that have enough volatility in them. And UEC, and now you're seeing it. Other than Cameco as well, but Cameco and UEC are those two players that have the most volatility where you can trade back and forth. Now you have these funds. Now you're going to see more and more institutional money flow into these things and flow into this industry. So definitely not too late to get exposure. (10/35)
And what else is working? Crypto. I'm getting tons of questions about Bitcoin. Of course, crypto's over 60,000 again. We've seen it pull back to 40 twice, I think in the past 45 or 60 days. Now back up again. What are you just going to have when it goes back down there? People are pissed they didn't buy it. They're going to want to buy it. They made the first Bitcoin ETF just getting approved, which is, I'm not going to lie to you, it's kind of a shitty ETF since it's futures based. You're tracking it. It's going to be tough given the roll loss every month. I don't get into more details of that, but it's not all ETFs. It's probably not the best one to approve right away, but that's okay. It's a bigger point. More ETFs are coming. And look, when you look at Bitcoin, whether you like it, whether you hate it, you don't understand it, whatever. And yes, there's a lot of BS in the marketplace, but there's also a lot of great stuff in there. But Bitcoin is the inflation hedge. It's the, I (11/35)
hate central government hedge. It's the, I hate Wall Street hedge. Hate global money printing forever hedge. And there's limited supply. And now you have banks, institutions, Wall Street, they're late to the party getting in. If you look at PayPal, Square, Visa, MasterCard, I mean, these guys have to adopt it. Not that they, hey, this is pretty cool. They have to, it threatens their business, their innovation to limiting the middleman. All payment financial companies, that's all of Wall Street. Wall Street's the middleman. That's where you see the most innovation come from by far is in the crypto industry. It's incredible. Goldman just filed to launch a DeFi ETF. It's like a couple of months ago. What did they do, 13, 14 billion in sales or whatever for the last quarter? I mean, these guys don't launch an ETF unless they think it's a massive, massive market that can move the needle. And that's just one part. One small part of crypto, which is DeFi. You can see security token ETFs, NFT (12/35)
ETFs. These are coming as well now that that approval has happened, which means it's going to go more mainstream, more people, more institutions get in it. Those are three markets that have massive tailwind. Maybe energy's getting a little toppy. Financials, the risk reward isn't as great as it was six, nine months ago. But uranium and crypto, I mean, these are cyclical trends that I'm personally adding money to on pullbacks. If you're a CCI subscriber, we've done incredibly well in this portfolio. You have five companies up more than 10X. Two of those are up 20X and one is up 30X. We just have five names under our buy up to prices right now. And these five names I love since their plays are on crypto 2.0, which is the next phase of growth within crypto. And you look at DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse, security tokens. If you're listening to this, you're on our email list. I'm sending out a special video. It's an offer to subscribe to my crypto intelligence newsletter. And I've gotten a lot of (13/35)
questions, a lot of people saying, hey, what's the best price you could offer? So I put together a video. It's very short. It's not a long 40, 50 minute video. I think it's like 15 minutes tops. Watch it because you're going to understand why I'm so excited about crypto. I don't care if you subscribe to the newsletter or not. After you watch the video, you probably are because you're going to see exactly what I'm talking about because this isn't your typical looking into the camera thing. I'm sharing my screen with you, showing you real time exactly what's going on in this market. And I'm also going to show you our crypto intelligence portfolio. If you're a subscriber, don't worry. I'm not giving away any of the stocks. I'm blotting them out. But you're going to see the gains and it's the full portfolio. You'll see a few losses in there. You're going to see, those are the stocks we recommended or the cryptos recommended that I think have tremendous upside potential. That's the full (14/35)
portfolio. And the point of this is what? It's to show you that as someone that's been doing it as long as me, for close to 30 years, I've never seen the gains that you could generate as a retail investor from a sector than this one. Never. And you'll see the proof. Why is that? You're looking at a market where as a retail investor, as a retail investor, and I'm a credit investor, I can get in some pretty good private deals. That's different. But as a retail investor, as not a credit, and you're looking for the greatest returns, look where these IPOs come out, where Robinhood, $38 billion valuation before you could buy it. Palantir, $21 billion valuation. Snowflake was up 100% on the open. That was close to a $70 billion valuation was the first time retail investors could buy Snowflake. You're looking at SPACs when they come out. Holy cow. I mean, you look at these companies that are merging with the SPACs to become publicly traded and you look at their valuation just six months before (15/35)
that. You'll be able to see it because these companies raise money. Once they raise money, they'll disclose, this company raised money and had a billion dollar valuation. And some of these companies would be $250, $300 billion valuation six months ago. I don't know what changed in six months, not much, but they'll come out of two, $3 billion valuations. And SPACs, they'll inflate these things and do these road shows because they know they could sell it to the retail investor. You're going to buy these things at crazy valuations. Yet, if you look at crypto, go to coinmarketcap.com. It's a free site. Just look at like the top 30, 40 of them and put a year chart and hit the market cap, not the price. You're going to see companies that were below $100 market cap that are like $15, $20 billion market cap that are even into the billions in terms of market caps. I mean, you're looking at 20X, 50X, even 500X gains inside of a year. I'm not going to tell you that you're going to generate those (16/35)
going forward, right? Obviously, right? You don't know what's going to happen. Maybe crypto crashes is a lot of garbage. What I'm telling you is that from a risk reward perspective, you cannot get those types of gains in the regular markets anymore. Yeah, you could get 300, 400, 500%. You'll see some of those in our portfolios. I'm talking about 20X and 30X gains inside of two and a half years. When have you seen that? Maybe you bought Netflix 15 years ago. Maybe you bought one of these things, whatever, Microsoft back in the day or you bought... Even if you bought, man, Google in the 80s when nobody wanted it, when it IPO'd, nobody wanted it. That was great for Google. Maybe you have an isolated example of you holding something for 15 years that did fantastic, but when you look at the gains in this sector and the fact that where the innovation is coming from, these big trends, and you're looking at it and say, wow, it's Bitcoin, it's Ethereum. Bitcoin and Ethereum, that was the (17/35)
foundation. That was the foundation of this. When you're looking at the next stage of growth and innovation, think of it as the internet. The intent in the late 1990s, massive growth taking place, everybody going crazy, everybody making a fortune before that crash. But I'll tell you something, Streamy wasn't around then. 5G wasn't around, AI wasn't around, social media didn't even exist. This is the innovation and the growth that takes place once the foundation, which was the internet, was built. The foundation is built. Bitcoin is here. Banks are forced to integrate it. It's already integrated and everything, so they can't shut it down without crashing everything. Limited supply. You're going to see Bitcoin continue to go higher. Pull back, it'll be volatile. When it does, you're going to see a lot of names go higher along with it. That includes some of the crap sometimes. And there is a lot of crap in this industry, so you need someone to guide you. But trust me, even if you're not (18/35)
going to subscribe to it, watch the video for 15 minutes and I show you exactly what I mean of why the opportunity, which I've been doing this for such a long time and I can tell you, I can identify with every investor. I don't care how rich you are. I don't care if your portfolio is $1,000. Everybody is looking for the grand slam and they're looking for it right away. I've got those returns out of crypto. I've made millions of dollars off of crypto. I'm not just bullshitting you here where I base my company and my reputation on this trend where we have our own security token. So nice to see the industry going crazy right now. It took a little while and I was on a fence going, maybe I was the idiot out there. I didn't know what I was talking about, but it's here. It's disrupting everything. This is the industry you're going to see innovation come from and learn about it. Start learning about it. You know it's tough, especially if you're an old investor, you're set in your ways, you (19/35)
don't want to learn anything. Start learning about it because it's not that hard to open an account. Technology is getting better. Now you have clearing. You have ETFs getting approved, the SEC coming on board. It's all happening. It's all happening and it's still very, very early in a lot of the next phase. I don't want to call it crypto 2.0 or whatever it is, but that's the next phase of growth where you're going to see DeFi, decentralized finance, where you're eliminating the middlemen and all these... It's why Wall Street has to get in. You're going to make fees just by being a middleman. It's $80 billion industry already, 80 billion. It's like double marijuana and it's going to grow 10X. It's a bigger market growing faster, but it was like, marijuana, I got to get it. This is much, much bigger. DeFi is much bigger than marijuana. Security tokens is 500 trillion in assets that could be tokenized. These are illiquid assets where you could sell off a piece of them. Only 1% of that is (20/35)
true. That's a $5 trillion market. That's incredible. And NFTs, yes, there's a lot of crap in it, but it's pretty cool to get something digital and original from maybe Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, your favorite celebrity, Wayne Gretzky. Some of that's really cool. It's a good market, but these are just opening up the possibilities. Now, you have the metaverse. You have so many great trends. A lot of this only flows through crypto. To get involved, you will receive a video from me. And again, just watch it. I don't know if you're subscribed or not. It is the best offer that I've... One of the best offers, I think. The best offer I'm pretty sure since we launched this, since launch was, I think, our best offer. That was four years ago for crypto intelligence. So, you're not going to see a better offer than this. And when you see the performance, I should be charging a lot more for this, but this is someplace I want to get you in. Why? We're independent. I don't get paid by companies to (21/35)
recommend them. So, if I don't show you gains, you cancel your service. So, we're pushing different products and services is because I think you can make a lot of money on it. Because if you do, then what are you going to do? You're going to subscribe to more of our products. That's what I want. I want you around for 20, 30 years. I don't want you around for a couple of days and wrecking you on some stupid story, which we see a lot in this industry, which is the reason why I started this company. Because there's a lot of bullshit out there. But it's a great, great, great opportunity. Here it is. Good price point. If you want to take advantage, fine. You have seven days to do it. If not, no worries. You've got lots of requests. That's why I put this together. And rightly so, because we're seeing crypto really take off, ETFs getting approved. It's really big. It's a hot theme right now, and I get it. But the next phase of growth is where people will get filthy rich if they invest in the (22/35)
right names. There's innovation there. These companies are coming out at very, very low valuations, or valuations where you're getting in near the ground floor, which you cannot do on Wall Street anymore unless you're an accredited investor and able to invest in a lot of these private companies. You'll see that. Maybe tomorrow, next day. But again, seven days if you want to subscribe. If not, no worries. But please, start learning about this trend. I've been saying that for over two years. And if you follow me, if you listen to me, even if you just bought Bitcoin then, you're doing extremely, extremely well, probably better than any stock that you purchased. I think this is just the beginning. Bitcoin, Ethereum are yesterday's news. I think Bitcoin is going to continue to grind higher. It's going to go higher. Ethereum, I'm worried about. There's other technologies that could have won in our portfolio that's an Ethereum killer. Everyone's switching over to it. The biggest companies are (23/35)
switching over to it. It's faster. You have no fees. Where we've been switching over to it, Ethereum, again, just different innovation going forward. And a lot of innovation, a lot of great markets. It's going to be very, very exciting. I'm excited right now, especially with security tokens, which we are right in the middle of. And subscribers at CCI are going to get a look at a lot of deals because there's a lot of companies coming to us trying to launch this thing. You can get in at discounts to these deals through new reggae offerings, which means retail investors, even you can get into some of these deals, which would be discounted right before the IPO, or what they like to call the STO, the security token offering. So really, really good stuff there. Again, I'll come out in a couple of days. But the theme here is focus on what's working. I'll say it again, I'm not sure if I'll go all in on energy right now. Financial is not a crazy risk reward, but uranium, crypto is still very (24/35)
early when it comes to that growth potential. But find the themes that are working. Now last week, I ran a little late with this. I didn't get a chance to answer some of your questions, which I'm doing a monologue, taking a few questions. So we'll do that today. Let's start with a question from John. He goes, hey Frank, hope all is well. I had a question regarding Ethereum. Thought a few years back I bought some on Binance, but a few months ago I had to transfer everything out of it because the website said I'm a US citizen. I couldn't trade on Binance and I had to go to their Binance US site. Have you heard of anyone else having the same issues with Binance website? I didn't see any theory in my Binance account and I checked Kraken and I didn't see any there. Just wondering if you had recommended any of the websites exchange to buy Ethereum in the past. I also checked Coinbase. There's no Ethereum there that I had bought. Thanks, John. Okay. I mean for crypto people who are in the (25/35)
industry, they'll be like, you know, but for people who are starting, this is a good question. So Binance had to create a site called Binance US because, you know, regulations and they can't just have all the crappy shit and garbage, which is, you know, they could trade that internationally, which is fine. So probably went to their Binance US account. I would call Binance and it should be in that account, but you could buy Ethereum anywhere. You could buy it on Coinbase. Coinbase is probably the best place. A lot of these sites, you might have a little bit of problems, customer service, huge demand, but you know, it's Coinbase, you could crack in, Gemini. I mean, get familiar with these sites. Even the BlockFi's you could buy, so many places you could buy Bitcoin, it's very, very easy right now. And this process used to take three, four, five days sometimes before they approve you. I mean, you don't realize this when you're opening an account at E-Trade, but they're going through the (26/35)
whole background check. Like there's a warrant for your arrest and you fill out an account, you know, you'll get someone knocking on your door, right? You get arrested like next day. You don't realize they're going through all these checks, you just do it so fast. Well, now they're doing these checks where it's anti-laundering, making sure you're okay. They get, you know, know your customer, KYC, they're doing all this stuff. It used to take like three, now it takes five minutes and less than a day to open up accounts on most platforms, including C-Zero, the one we're going to trade on. So, they say, hey, it'll take up to two days. I mean, we fill in information. You know, I did it and it took about five hours, four hours to go through that whole process and I was up and running. So, you know, try to use those sites, which would be better. I'm sure if you go into Binance US or if you call them, they probably automatically place that in the Binance US account or you might have to (27/35)
transfer it or they transfer it for you. But yes, Binance took all the US investors off, they created Binance US, which is, you know, much smaller. The amount of tokens trading there are not as big as the Binance site, but yeah, you should be able to trade on Binance US with no problem. Kraken as well and Coinbase, and that's where you could buy Ethereum by, I think Coinbase is over 100 now, maybe 120, 130. I don't know how many. I haven't looked probably in a month or two, but yeah, I mean, more issues being able to trade on that and it's cool. You get familiar with it and it's very easy to open an account. Start with a small amount. I mean, that makes sense. Let's go to one more question here. It is from Edith. She goes, hello, Frank. I thought to reach out to you directly is I don't have any knowledge or experience in trading stocks. Would you be able to advise me on how to start? I can only invest $1,000 and cannot afford to lose it. I would forever be grateful and become a (28/35)
prescriber for many years to come. Thank you so much, Edith, prescriber. I don't know if you're a doctor, but if you're going to prescribe drugs to me for many years to come, damn, I might give you a Curzio One membership for free. You could go Adderall, Fentanyl, Vag, or you name it. We've got a partnership there, Edith. I'm in. I have to say I'm joking now because people don't know that and they take that seriously. I'm joking, joking. Just kidding. Everyone's so serious now, but I think you're a subscriber, right? So, a subscriber for many years to come. I can advise you, right? So, if you have $1,000, you can't afford to lose it. I wouldn't put it in the market. You can't afford to lose it. So, I don't care if you buy an S&P 500 Vanguard fund where the fee is like 0.1%, which is very little fee, which I tell a lot of people to buy and purchase. You'll own the top 500 stocks and that has done extremely, extremely well. Over 65 years, I think it's in the 50s when it became 500 and (29/35)
you're looking at 8% average returns annually with dividends, a little bit more than that. Again, you have your ups and downs, but it's been solid. I don't know what the yield is now. Is it 1.7, 1.8, or whatever it is? But yeah, that's the best bet. But at $1,000, if you can't afford to lose it, then I wouldn't go into the market right now. I mean, yeah, that's the best advice I give. I would focus and look at all of our free stuff on our site. And I want to charge you for a newsletter. We probably have the best free content out there. And you get lots of ideas. This podcast is for free. All these podcasts are for free that I'm doing, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We have great interviews. You get lots of stock picks, lots of ideas. You can go to our website now, which is redesigned, which is awesome. So you're seeing content every single day now. It's not just a member site, which it used to be where members go there and they log in. It's becoming a media company now. So there's (30/35)
content on it every day, original content, really, really good. And now we can get outside contributors to participate, hire more people to write more. Now it gets bigger and bigger, provide quotes and stuff like that, and build a whole site. And that's our direction. That's where we're going. And I would focus on that, but yeah, at $1,000, Edith, just be careful. If you can't afford to lose, don't ever put any money in market, you can't really afford to lose. Again, because I don't know where the S&P 500 is going. I'm sure you're not going to get crushed. I wouldn't say you lose more than 20, 30% right away, but either way, you have to be very, very careful. And yeah, I mean, I really wish I could tell you more. Really wish I could tell you more. If you have like $5,000 to invest and you're investing, you say, hey, this is money I put aside or in your 401k, which is long-term and stuff like that, it's different. You put them in certain areas, you can separate even $1,000, you can put (31/35)
100 bucks in 10 different situations. But the key to this is you said you can't afford to lose it. And if you can't afford to lose it, then yeah, I wouldn't even put it in the market. The market is a dangerous place. It's very volatile. And the last thing you want to do is put money in the market and look at it every single minute of every single day, because that means you have too much in a stock or too much in the market. Because if I looked at every single day, I would have sold out all my uranium picks. I would have sold out all my gold picks that I had five, six, seven years ago that have five-year warrants on that all came back in 2019 and stuff like that. I wasn't looking at this until I was like, hey, in five years, I think gold is going to be fine and it'll definitely go higher. And a lot of these stocks have done well, even though gold is kind of crappy right now as a sector. Same with crypto, the ups and downs and uranium I've had, I'm making a lot, a lot of money in (32/35)
uranium, but I've had these things where they sat there for three years, four years and did nothing while the market surged. But I had exposure to other things in the market that did great and I was diversified. So I was saying to my friends in Vancouver, it's gold and silver only and mining and that sector has been so terrible, such a long time outside of a couple of periods. When that cycle changes, it's great. People make a fortune. But otherwise, you're sitting there watching everything else in this market, our markets go crazy, going through the roof and you're sitting there in one sector, you have to be diversified, but saying you can't afford to lose it, I would say don't put it in the market either. So sorry, I couldn't help you more, but start learning as much as you can for when you build up the capital and you want to put it into the market, you could do that by our free site. And there's other good free sites out there too. Just be careful what you read out there. Okay (33/35)
guys, so that's it for me. Again, it's CCI Promo, which is Crypto Intelligence. A great video. It's a short video. I kept it short. I'm sharing my screens with you. Just take a look and you're going to understand why you're going to see the massive upside potential you have in this and some of the gains that you can capture, which are very difficult to capture these days in the market and going forward because of the valuations that come out. But yeah, I think crypto, this is just the beginning and the foundation has been built and there's amazing growth trends, amazing innovations. The contacts I have in this industry have been unbelievable, fantastic, write to me all the time and I thank them all the time. Again, I'm all in on this industry. I love the direction it's going. I'm very happy with the decision I made. I'm very happy for my investors and I want to see you guys make money. And this is a sector that I really, really like going forward for a very, very long time. So like (34/35)
investing in the internet in the early, not early, but mid 1990s and even 2003, four, five, six, when it really started taking off again and all these trends just started getting bigger and bigger and bigger. So really, really cool stuff. Questions, comments, refer to the email at frankkurzyresearch.com. Really appreciate all the support and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The greatest risk/reward opportunity I've ever seen.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream. Let's go out there. It's August 30th. I'm Frank Curzio. It's the Wall Street Unplugged Vice. We're here to help us end Tell you what's really moving these markets. Happy Hurricane Day Except you live in Florida If you don't live in Florida, hurricanes are like culture here Similar to throwing babies from a 50-story tower in Sallapur village in India and people holding a blanket to catch them It's believed to give their children good luck and a healthy life Talk about a zero-sum game If your baby makes it it's probably gonna be healthy if they miss and don't catch it. It's probably not But that's actually true Look it up Anyway in Florida comes the hurricanes. It gets a little crazy here Once we see it coming it's preparation time. We usually know probably five days out. There's (1/35)
probably gonna hit Florida It looks like gonna hit and then you do the cones and then all the models and you see it all over the place But as we get closer It gets really interesting right say like two days. We're two days out. We know what category it's going to be when hits lands Where it's likely going to hit but a cone right? It's just maybe a little off to the left to the right Our hurricanes they last for a day maybe two And this one's hitting us today on Wednesday expect to be gone in a day You may lose electricity for a few hours, so having a generator smart see lines at Home Depot But you really don't lose electricity for a long time Now I've been through a bunch of hurricane since 2013 two or three of them were pretty big I think one time I lost electricity most of the time is for a few hours. I think once it was for like two days but usually it's a Few hours, especially you know as long as I talk about a category five and it's craziness, right? This is category twos and (2/35)
threes which you know again, which is expected to hit but as I regain approaches People go into like this panic mode They start running to the grocery stores and they pile up on everything to the food water meat Cases and cases and cases not like oh, let's just repair I mean it says it's like a nuclear missile is heading to Florida and you're gonna be in a bunker for a month I mean there's long lines in stores. It's craziness and it's not that bad this time Which makes me think maybe this hurricane again hasn't hit us yet It's gonna hit us Maybe a little worse than expected this time around But it's insane. It's like a frenzy Yeah, people fill up their gas tanks, which you know, I guess I understand you don't wanna be on empty But you don't have to be on full and you have these long lines for gases You know the storm they think is gonna be here for weeks but again it blows in one day blows out I mean if a bunch of trees fall you can't drive all these trees anyway, so that's meaningless (3/35)
And even if they do it's not like yeah, you're in the Keys expecting a category five with a hundred forty mile an hour winds You don't need to top off your gas tank and then also fill up like three gas cans and put them in you know It's like just craziness here like craziness Now Normally during hurricanes everyone inside of Florida and outside of Florida kind of watches the Weather Channel You have these experts like Jim Cantore who my wife loves by the way He always goes into the craziest parts of the hurricane a quick story about Jim Cantore by the way, because my wife really loves him and Every time I watch Tiger Woods, I love watching Tiger Woods. I'm big Tiger Woods fan I love watching play golf my voice always says, you know, why you watch that whenever I'm watching She's over my show. Why are you watching that guy that guy? I hate him. She done his wife and all those girlfriends He's such an ass, but she hates Tiger Woods. I mean I couldn't give a shit about his personal life I (4/35)
just love watching people who are the best at things and he's the best golfer ever. It's entertaining I don't care about his personal life, but Jim Cantore again who she loves and I found this story about two years ago They left his wife of 16 years a few years after she was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease And then he started dating a pretty young journalist at CNN So she mentioned him recently I'm like, why do you like that guy that guy's such an asshole I can't believe look what he did to his wife. It's messed up. She's like shut up. Anyway, that's me my wife's relationship But get back to Jim Cantore you have these big hurricanes and You have you know Cantore a few others They go right in the middle of the storm the very worst areas and report from them right makes seem like the hurricane is a lot worse than it is because They'll show Maybe three of the houses that got hit pretty hard of the 600,000 houses right and they wear this baggy gear and go into the the craziest wind (5/35)
tunnels and they're walking They can't even walk. It's the most windy areas. I don't remember when Those people went a canoe paddling and I think it's on CNN. They showed a few years of how bad is I don't I forgot what hurricane it was even so whatever it was What and the reporter was talking while I was reported talking telling you how bad it was It was someone that walked by like walk next to the canoe and right behind the reporter You saw the water was like less than knee-high and everybody I think they got a lot of shit for that does a weather channel But when you look at hurricanes, it's like this big entertainment factor because you have fear unknowingness, you know the visuals and what's gonna happen and we have canton and The crew reporting from the front lines and they say yeah, we do this curse with professionals. Everybody should be off the streets Like being professional in this field helps you determine when a 50-foot tree is gonna split in half and then go flying through (6/35)
your skull I guess there's a class that teaches you that this guy's getting a little crazy sometimes But hurricanes while common in Florida There's a lot of craziness that goes behind the scenes and I'm sure a lot of people don't live in Florida know about Most time we're cool DeSantis has done a fantastic job when it comes to Preparedness and getting everything ready and making sure everything's cool and closing places I mean there was hurricanes here and I live in Amelia Island that they state they came out and said listen you Have until 12 p.m. To leave not this hurricane different our king one of the bad ones You have the 12 p.m. To leave the island if you don't nobody's coming to rescue you. We're not risking anyone I mean, that's pretty cool and pretty crazy Like we gave you plenty of time to get out of it We told you three days ago if you're not out of there and you call I don't want or whatever We're not coming to get you So they don't mess around right? So there's no It's (7/35)
hitting Tampa. It's gonna be a little craziness I know that they're expecting a cat three by the time it hits lands big storm surges around Tampa Gulf of Mexico and stuff like that I know everyone's watching a couple questions and concerns about it. But uh Well, it's gonna hit us gonna be probably about 60 mile an hour winds, which is pretty crazy I mean I taped some of these hurricanes and 60 miles now you don't realize how crazy 60 mile an hour 120 is insane, but I'm praying for everyone to be safe. Well, a lot of people could be watching on TV Hopefully if electricity goes out not out for long And if it is from our perspective just from logistics, you know, we'll see Wall Street unplug premium We usually tape on Thursday. We might push the Friday We'll see in terms of you know, what's going on here, but just thoughts and prayers go out to everyone There's gonna be a little craziness. Yeah, it's not supposed to be as bad and hit category three, but sometimes you really don't know And (8/35)
I'm just hoping everybody's safe and everybody is okay. But yeah the whole hurricane thing I'm getting used to it cuz I call myself already now in 13 years and You know most of the time it's a little more crazy than it leads on to be and what you've seen on TV and hopefully That is the case this time. Although I did go shopping last night to get Our normal shopping stuff and I realized like oh man, it's gonna be crowded and everything's gonna be out It was crowded is in Jacksonville was definitely crowded But they had a lot of stuff in and I heard it wasn't too bad on the island either which I don't know again makes me a little nervous because usually everything is out out of stock and everybody's going crazy the Fact that they're not I'm hoping that doesn't mean that it's gonna be worse than it is But we'll see who report accordingly and hope everybody stays safe out there. Let's get to the markets a few big stories The first is Bitcoin Hey the appellate court side of grayscale That's (9/35)
in a lawsuit against the SEC against the SEC guys But the SEC denied grayscales applications to converge grayscale Bitcoin trust into an ETF And a decline it because it was political I publicly motivated but now At the court side of a grayscale this all but assures that Bitcoin ETFs are coming and they're probably gonna come sooner than expected Now why is this a big deal You have fidelity BlackRock arc Invesco wisdom tree when you talk about management firms with trillions of assets of the management All filing to launch their own Bitcoin ETFs And if you look at the news Bitcoin surge over 7% this happened on Tuesday Being all crypto related companies higher than stock market coinbase. Everything surged about freaking time considering It's been a really dead market for a few months now very exciting for a while And for us as you know, we're expecting this news and these approvals Twice it's a great time to come into our crypto intelligence newsletter, which got its ass kicked like (10/35)
everything else in crypto We did unbelievably before that, but it's been a bad 12 18 months FTX 2022 is a nightmare Came back a little bit in 2023 you could say that for Bitcoin and aetherium, but not so much for the top 50 or so Cryptos, which are good names good technologies still down 70% plus from their highs and now's the time Now's a great time to get in with a lot of good stuff going on But this is significant news because Bitcoin ETFs guys It's just the beginning I Mean you're looking at grayscale pro shares bitwise and Vanek These are just at a few large asset managers who filed for aetherium ETFs, which you don't hear about often it's always Bitcoin ETFs and Once these start to get approved it's gonna lead to active crypto ETFs passive crypto ETFs gaming crypto ETFs DeFi crypto ETFs smart beta ETFs blah blah blah keep going and going That's why it's a big deal because if you really look at the ETF Evolution over the past 20 years and the impact it's had to the overall (11/35)
markets. I mean the numbers are incredible I think just the last 10 years We had 2300 ETFs now. We have 5700 and if an ETF for like anything a leverage robotics AI with whatever I Mean there's an ETF for everything Every single thing. It's incredible Be looking at assets that went from 1.2 trillion in 2010 to 6.7 trillion today It was over 7 trillion 7.5. I believe last year markets come down This is across the US and Europe, but they make close to 40% of the total US equity volume last year That's how big this is and that's what crypto is about what are people worried about? I don't feel like open up a wallet. I got to worry about everything I mean this comes on top of coinbase just being one of the first institutions where they're gonna allow custody Which is huge These are the necessary steps that have to be taken in order for crypto to thrive and making it easier fidelity launching their platform with Paradigm Citadel and Schwab Schwab and fidelity alone 70 million accounts that (12/35)
Could have access to crypto not all of them are gonna buy crypto, but now you see The liquidity there you make it an easier for people where they can go to their brokerage firm And it's very easy to purchase this stuff now or through their ETFs and have an allocation and people Want it they want it and they should want it Crypto Is here to stay I keep telling everybody listen for 30 years. I mean mostly small caps throughout my whole entire career managing risk You're not gonna see a better setup in any sector when it comes to risk reward or better opportunities in crypto Could you lose your money? Absolutely? But the reward is someplace where you can get 50 X 100 X a thousand X and this isn't cherry picking like a Microsoft from You know 25 years ago. This is like the top 60 70 tokens look at their performance from when they started in a five-year period and When they peaked this is like the whole in this is this industry is still in its infancy The technologies a token ization is a (13/35)
reason why every bank is launching their own blockchain. So they're gonna tokenize our assets Why would you tokenize assets? Well, there's 16 trillion worth of illiquid assets. That's bonds. That's Real estate and imagine token izing them now you make them liquid you could sell off pieces to individual investors or Institutions and make it easy because the blockchains are gonna talk to each other and there's companies that are doing that within crypto to make that easy Without forming bridges and worrying about getting hacked and things like that And that's what SPACs wall about right? You guys should know that by now It's just a matter SPACs are so big because hey, it allows the insiders in these private companies To go to the shell company make them private instead of waiting seven to ten years for a liquidity period now you have a couple months These pipe deals all the insiders get out. You can only do that in a bull market Where you could bullshit the retail investor and come out (14/35)
of these insane valuations and allow the insiders to get out That's a shitty way of doing it. But what if there's a legit way of doing it? I mean they did it where they inflated the valuations now, what do you have you have SPACs down 90% sitting with hundreds of millions of dollars in cash on a balance sheet that they raised at a much much higher valuation And the stock is shit because the structure is garbage. They can't sell out of it There's not enough volume all these guys 40 50% of the flow in at zero So even though it was 11, even if it's a dollar now, it goes at 30 cents They're still gonna sell 30 cents because they're gonna make 30x who cares about the retail investor, but this isn't about that This is about having these assets and it's important you want to have access to your money if you're in commercial real estate You know in a hundred million dollars commercial real estate And you're sitting there it makes sense for you to sell off a piece of that. Let me sell 20% (15/35)
Alright, I'll get 20 million now the rest of that could trade as a stock Or shares rights tokenized now anyone could own Commercial real estate. It's good for me. I just got a 20 million dollar check So I'm liquid I could buy more commercial real estate and do this and even more It's great for everybody else because now I could say hey This is gonna pay a 7 to 8 percent yield on their on the rental income that I'm generating Now you have access to a great asset that who has access to commercial real estate as a retail investor or smaller investor you don't checks off all the boxes You got more people out there more liquidity. That's more pricing more competition. That's great. That's great for pricing. That's awesome. That's what you want That's what tokenization is but a lot of this is around. This is what we did when the first company ever tokenize our company Been a little slow to develop but now Larry think Black rock just said that's the next biggest Revolution is tokenization. He (16/35)
just said this is a few months ago. That's the next biggest thing after ETFs That's the next biggest thing. That's what he said. He should know a little bit Forget about the politics and stuff like that guys were powerful people in the world controls almost every major company It's insane the whole ESG thing Wow Everybody jumped on board of that in the corporate world But all good news for crypto it's been you know, just as crazy period but this is an area that everyone should have exposure to And crypto is here. It's not going anywhere this see try to stop it again politically motivated Closing crypto banks where there's no evidence of fraudulent activities like it's silver bank and signature all bullshit They said before I never saw a better risk reward for an asset class than crypto And you can lose your money in it, but the upside is unbelievable That's why it deserves a place in everyone's speculative portfolio The upside on this stuff is incredible and you don't have that upside (17/35)
in the stock market all the time Unless you see a massive crash or unless you're an insider you get founder shares But most of the time when you're buying an IPO, it's coming out of crazy valuation guys a really crazy valuation You might get lucky and maybe 5x your money or 7 8 you're not gonna get 20x 50x These are gains that you don't see in the stock market believe in cover 30 years When they it's rare what here it's common to see 50x games in crypto It's common, but again, you have to be careful if know you're doing you're gonna be risking money I'm not saying put all your speculative money, but it deserves a place in your portfolio and everyone's portfolio who are seeking risk so I'm happy for grayscale It's a big win for all these companies. I mean not the FTX's and fraudulent players out there If all the guys doing the right thing playing by the rules talk to the SEC for years and make sure they would be Compliant and the SEC just turns around and goes against them all of a (18/35)
sudden out of nowhere I mean come on with the politics and the bullshit's terrible It's really good for grayscale great for the industry great for crypto second story is Best buys earnings. I think that was a big deal The reporter on Tuesday beat expectations the stock popped 5% or so But Best buy Best Buy is just a great company. I mean, it's well managed if you look back in history a Name pure play electronic retails almost every single one has gone bankrupt every one of them CompUSA crazy Eddie Radio Shack Circuit City computer city tweeter the whiz I Remember all those shops. Holy cow None of those guys could get it right Best Buy got it, right? Instead Of fighting remember the whole big-box retail on online's killing them in pricing and stuff like that They partnered with Amazon set down both CEOs and said hey, let's do this for our businesses better. It's great It's like Amazon's hardware to a lot of these Consumers and retailers it makes sense creating geek squad, which is a (19/35)
super high-margin business a lot of people It's hard to put it see you know difficult is but a flat-screen TV on a wall. I Mean it's not difficult, but if you do it wrong get done Things falling off the wall now you got to pay for a new TV The wall is gonna cost you a lot of money gonna shoot rock the whole thing up again And you want to get that done professionally and professionally with the wires where you don't see them and everything and then not only that More importantly I would say 95% of people set up their TVs wrong In terms of the specs and the distance away and a sound surround sound how far that is that that's an art That's not easy to do making sure they'll look at the brightness of your room What room is in every room has different brightness of course when you go to Best Buy? It's 8k beautiful, but that's on something That's an 8k shot and notice that that TV is gonna be in a dark place That's why it looks like that That's not gonna look like that at your house and most (20/35)
stuff is not 8k stuff is just barely 4k now when you have content But they're able to do all this and look at the lighting and put in those guys are really smart The great logistics they start a price match in a while ago, and just always on the ball listen You know it hasn't been roses I mean earnings per share fell by 20% sales down 7% but they beat the numbers they beat on earnings also beat on margins Stock popped about 5% it was like $77 was down 10% over the past three weeks or so heading into this quarter It was around 85 or so so expectations were kind of low And I don't blame them when you see some of these retailers getting annihilated like Dick's Pointing good down 30% Footlocker getting smoked Also down 30 35% I mean you can't blame people going wow you know I'm looking at Taiwan freaking exports are down 30% 25% it's horrible You go into Best Buy's now. You're not seeing a lot of traffic in there I've been in there past couple weeks few times and it's old also Hard to find (21/35)
somebody that's working there. It's gonna help you. It's not as many people so they're cutting costs Which I guess they need to do But still despite all that a dollar 22 in earnings 16 cents better than expected 9.6 billion in sales Holy shit for the quarter I Mean that's pretty good Also issued inline guidance which everybody Yeah, that's the measure if you're lowering guidance. You're gonna get nailed in this environment I mean even if you report strong guidance now I mean stocks are so inflated a lot of those names haven't gone up They went up a little bit and then came back down like Nvidia Actually had a good day on Tuesday And you're looking at all these results from Best Buy an environment where consumer spending electronics is down you look at it what headsets Who's buying? You know mobile phones who's buying TVs smart home devices with housing PCs holy cow clearly slowing good management team good results good good stock That doesn't translate over into every business. We have (22/35)
five a lower point tonight. I'm just see what they say That's the ultimate consumer discretionary stock And everything they sell in there is completely useless But they do it kind of reminds me of snapchat like if you send the person a text and read it it disappears That's kind of what you buy something five below the value is gone the second you walk out the store But people buy stuff my daughter's buy stuff in there. I'm like oh here we go and They made it work good for them. I'm not making fun of it, but still hey They make it work on people, but you know nothing in there is a necessity You know there's nothing and nothing in there to the sesame nothing nothing But good for them that models work But I want to see not really with the report more poorly what they say about the state of consumer Because that demographic that goes in there, and yeah, maybe it's a little bit younger But the demographic is very they're very big spenders between if you're looking at 20 Year-olds to 30 year (23/35)
olds again. I don't want to put it in the gen Z gen whatever I'm saying that that's a grip that they spend a lot of money You know if you go up to like 35 years old, but remember student loans Gonna have to start paying that and I think there was a survey that came out 60 65 percent like can't afford to pay that Right now for three years. It was paused So what does that mean a lot of bills credit cards? They're looking at credit cards in that demographic. Did you see it? I mean? Holy cow Delinquencies higher than they weren't 2008 you're looking at rates higher than they've ever been record highs for credit cards I mean you're taking that group and taking them out of The spending right that the the the US spending circle at total addressable market And those guys gonna get hurt a ton and it's a lot of businesses And that's the foot lockers right that goes right into the foot lockers It's a lot of different businesses you have to be very very careful of retail and those guys are (24/35)
significantly cutting back It's much different from that demographic, then you're looking from 35 to say 50 Who are doing okay? They still have some money? They're spending a little bit Even the high even in China if you look at China. I mean it's not a big demographic, but the high end is doing okay it's It's back to pre pandemic levels Everything else is shit, but it's certain demographics, but now you have to look at companies that fit inside these demographics Because there's a big difference between a 25 year old compared to the 40 year old 45 year old There's a big difference in spending and that filters down to a lot of different companies So now I made fun of them Made fun of five below you know stocks gonna pop like 40% tomorrow. I write my face funny I hope it does for shareholders really nothing against them But we also got some interesting names reporting later in the week right Campbell soup Hormel Yeah, those guys do usually in the safe environment. Those are better names (25/35)
the safer names have done terribly Tight machinery is reporting like to see report on those guys Broadcom Dell Lululemon Lemons one of the greatest brands in the world they could take yoga pants and punch holes in them with a hole puncher and Someone's gonna pay a hundred bucks for it. They'll sell from you that that brand is like unbelievable unbelievable We're just gonna spend and spend and spend every time I go to my girls love it people online all the time I mean it really is a great great company in a loyal brand. It's awesome See what they have to say I don't know if that's a good gauge of the state of consumer cuz man. I think it's like tattoos in Florida It's like people will use the last 150 dollars they have to go get a tattoo Good gauge of spending is gonna spend on that no matter what but I'm interested to see that report high expectations going in But outside of that what period are we in because earning season relatively over? Jackson Hole is done Powell said his piece (26/35)
more hikes lightly we likely we still see a little inflation the markets My questions what's gonna drive stocks higher from here you need catalyst because we're at a high valuation you need catalyst to drive it higher If you don't have catalyst probably if you're cheap, maybe you you know you go a little bit higher and whatever But when you're we're trading at a very expensive Valuation consider where interest rates are and consider the earnings aren't growing year over year that down 400% euro via this quarter third trade quarter negative earnings growth Unique catalyst is gonna be China tried lowering rates low taxes on trades Giving country garden a 40-day grace period for upcoming bond maturities. I don't you read that It worked for like a minute. I mean stocks pop and then you know they sold off a little bit There's a lock on in China guys. We're reporting to you for I mean you're looking at across the board ETFs markets are down 10 12 percent in August in China, and we've been (27/35)
warned about that for a while guys You should have been ahead of that Still see a lot of pain ahead. Let's see but the risk separation my cows probably gonna do okay You're gonna gamble them out of what the high-end isn't as bad Doesn't mean everything China's terrible, but most of it is but are we gonna see growth from there I don't know we're gonna see from Europe where Just said that you know you're his own Europe they look at a raise rates further control inflation so Trading levels s to be trading around 50-day, which everyone is watching right now, and then we're heading it to September which is The worst month for stocks historically, and this is data going back 75 years interesting facts here So in September we post negative returns 56% of the time and to put that in perspective September is the only month of the year to average a negative return We show positive returns every other month going back in history except for September So now you know September we're gonna go up 30% (28/35)
cuz I said that But seriously you're going into a month, and it's like a low right so we got the holiday weekend coming There's not a lot going on September you're right in between earning season and everyone's like oh You know cautious you do that the Apple event coming out, but you know what are they gonna say? I mean do you really need I mean give it away to 14 for free that you know there's a company. That's why I see Yeah, just with Apple and everything else is separate There's clear separation guys between what's going on with meta and Google and those stocks are surging compared to everything else Apple's catching a little bit of a bid because they're gonna come out with their whole you know Presentation and everything that's in a couple weeks and watching the new phone and stuff their events. That's fine, but what a difference I mean Tesla. You know Tesla's been shit apples been selling off Netflix yeah, it's been okay, but not like meta and Google I mean that's what I'm seeing (29/35)
this market lots of disconnects when it comes to stocks and valuations That's both sides like some stocks that are really expensive They should be like why own Apple and Microsoft here when you could own Nvidia at the same multiple And if V is growing earnings expected to grow earnings over the next two years by 50% and sales by 30% annually over the next two years Apple and Microsoft are barely growing and trading at the same multiple you choose what you want I mean, I think one of two things has to happen either Nvidia is gonna take off which we saw on Tuesday and Outperform these guys or Apple Microsoft are gonna come down a lot. Maybe Nvidia kind of stays here, but that that's a disconnect to me And the reason why it's trying to say multiples because they put up Unbelievable earnings second quarter in a row so that confirms it Couple of things that that people are worried about where it's China big exposure to China What's gonna go on politics something that can't control also? (30/35)
What they saw in sales and the increase of sales And this is unusual because usually when you have a massive increase in sales And this is the biggest increase of sales we've ever seen in history the last two quarters seriously It's that's never happened history markets by that amount in these two quarters each of those quarters We've never seen that much of a guy higher quarter of a quarter ever but usually when you see that guys what do you see usually see expenses go higher expenses didn't go higher and Not that that's a red flag, but it means That They really really up those prices on the chips which is confirmed by their margins beating estimates and When you're doing that it's you could do that right now because you're the king of the mountain You have the chip that everybody wants, but man There's a lot of competition coming and that's the reason do I have to pay 70 you know 70% margins these guys are making Do I have to pay that much? Because for Apple Google Microsoft all (31/35)
those guys big balance sheets hey Let's take 10 billion off the balance sheet of the next 20 whatever not even twice more like five years in Spending and let's stop building this stuff because this is getting ridiculous right now, and that's they're all doing they build their own chips But so when I'm looking at that company I see those three I would say why you know How could you own Apple Microsoft over in video right now? And that's what happens when you have a surge in earnings and their stock price didn't really go up too much It was a five whatever 50 and came all the way down I had a good day on Tuesday, but still it's trading at like 29 20 times for what earnings That's in line with Apple and Microsoft. I'd rather own video here than those two based on valuation and growth Which is what drive stocks usually? Seeing similar examples of disconnects in other sectors, that's a Tomorrow's new recommendations gonna come from Dan I gotta break down a few sectors and under the radar (32/35)
stocks that are likely going start getting some attention That's in Wall Street Club premium our premium service Which is $10 a month and you also get access to a dollar stock Club newsletter where we recommend the stock every single week Get lots of compliments on and it's cool, and that's a podcast only available It's not on iTunes or anything else get sent to you directly, and we're in a process of building an app Almost at that first version right now, which you know coming soon, hopefully But right now that gets sent to you, and you can listen to it That's an awesome podcast we have it's much much more detailed more ideas Stock picks and things like that and really breaking stuff down and and we go anywhere with that newsletter even crypto sometimes And who knows that's where might go not tomorrow, but maybe next week. We'll see a Lot of those sectors. I mean you look at large cap telecoms Verizon upgraded by city Utilities a little bit catching a bid right the Fed stocks is (33/35)
largely underperformed nobody wants them When you have technology going up 30% for the year, but it's changing even biotech starting to get a little bit in favor some names It's a lot going on the next couple of weeks to be prepared come out with night recommendation Wall Street flood premium tomorrow And Dan I'm gonna break all this down for you in the meantime enjoy the day in Florida Listen stay safe from the hurricane seriously. It's poking fun. I did a little joking around before and hopefully it's not as bad You know we're on the other side But you know those floods and storm surges are real and you know in Tampa and they hit pretty bad Hopefully a lot of them evacuated. They're gonna be okay, and hopefully the hurricane is not gonna be too bad and get through this You know and be safe, but seriously be safe with you and your family. Hopefully everything's okay We'll see on our end how things are like Jersey and stuff like that So we may have to push Wall Street on plug premium (34/35)
back a day, which is secondary to everything else that I just said But just letting you guys know, but either way we're gonna report to you hopefully tomorrow if not by Friday And I'll see you guys then take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry the information Presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests you should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast Remember it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How Main Street investors can start building a fine art portfolio.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's going out there. It's February 2nd I think or just a Wall Street of a pocket swear back that headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets Believe it or not. I Have another great interview Set up today and it's with Scotland the founder and CEO of masterworks So you heard him mention masterworks this week. They're sponsoring Wall Street unplugged You know, I don't have a lot of sponsors very rarely have sponsors actually on this podcast Unlike every other podcast in the world. So when I do it's only for companies. I fully support Companies I use their products or their platforms And companies that I trust But Scott and I go back about two years I interviewed him on this podcast in believe it was 2021 and He just launched his platform like a year earlier that tokenizes (1/35)
contemporary art And this is art that's usually only available the ultra wealthy right by these big art pieces put in house But he found a way to bring this to everyday people My own pop investors to invest in this amazing asset class, right? They did it by tokenization, which you all should be familiar with at least right? That's what we did with Curzio research and tokenization is selling a piece of an asset so a vest got fractional ownership and why would you do that because sometimes a private company or sometimes a real estate commercial real estate project it's It's a liquid asset and when it's a liquid asset It's hard to basically, you know, your money could be locked up over a certain time So say if you have a commercial asset and it's worth like a hundred million dollars So now you can sell 20 million of that to individual investors now individual investors for the first time They don't have to own the whole hundred million dollars But just like a stock they'll have fractional (2/35)
ownership participate and how that commercial property does over time It's great for the person who's selling it because now you're bringing the check sell 20% 20 million dollars right to yourself Which means you're liquid now you can use that money to actually build up that real estate portfolio even more commercial real estate It's great for individual investors Like I say you have a chance to earn commercial or to own commercial real estate a fraction of it for the first time ever Right. It's a great asset. So it checked every single box, which is why we did it Right, and it's just a market that I think is no doubt eventually gonna take off We launched ours in 2018 19 Very very early to party then we had COVID a decline that we had the whole SPAC revolution and stuff and people loving SPACs now you're seeing people get more back in this organization So Scott and I have a lot in common where we did this early on Now in the case of artwork of what he's doing masterworks. I thought (3/35)
this idea was fascinating back then So I wasn't surprised when these guys I think it was October November 2021. There is $100 million. Gave it a valuation over a billion and Which put them in a class of almost every company that would public be a SPAC in 2021 2022 right at least in mid by mid 2022 and everybody jumped on the bandwagon I'm glad that they didn't because you see them come out crazy valuations and a lot of them crashed 80 90 percent a lot of them seen slower growth, but In masterworks case the growth that they've seen even since then has been nothing short of spectacular, right? Which Scott's gonna tell you about in a minute? I like Scott. He's a no-nonsense guy. He's great. He's brilliant as a marketing background Again, it's gonna talk about but I think you gotta find the interview fascinating several reasons One is it's giving you access to a new alternative asset class Which is something that outperforms and out for the market over a long period of time, but more (4/35)
importantly it's a Great asset or a great place to invest a portion of your money, right? So diversify into we have crazy markets like the one way right now, which we're all seeing right? It's crazy Even we know the Fed just came out they raised that market was down percent that it goes up 2% Okay, just to see the valuations going with the Fed actually maintaining and saying okay, we're gonna continue to raise rates We've seen demand fall off a cliff and stocks keep going higher even though their earnings are going lower It's a recipe for disaster. Then as I can go up another 15 20 percent for me. I have no idea What's gonna do I just know the shit's gonna hit the fan's probably happen sooner than people think and what it does It's not gonna be pretty right It's just the fundamentals aren't there for the market to be continued to go high We all know that but let's see the algos are doing what they want to do right now, but it's crazy market And this is providing an alternative asset (5/35)
class for you. Just like I talked about crypto. It's like I talk about other different things, right? and the metaverse so Without further ado. Here's my interview. Hope you like it master works founder CEO Scott Lynn Scott Thanks so much for coming back on Wall Street unplugged Thanks for having me back excited excited to be here I guess it's it's been over a year now. It has been over a year and let's do a little refresher, right? so you found a CEO of masterworks and Why don't you? Refresh everyone who didn't listen to that past interview He's not been following you about masterworks the history how you came up with the idea of a tokenizing fine art, which is fantastic We've done that with our company tokenizing tokenization as well but How did you come up with that idea because now you're bringing a sector and an asset class To a market that never really had access to it right with individual investors explain that you just came up with this idea Yeah, it's good. It's a good (6/35)
question. So masterworks now is I guess we're four and a half years old We have seven hundred thousand investors on the platform. We have nearly a billion dollars in a um The idea really started I mean I've been starting technology companies for 20 years now and I've also been collecting art along the way So I've seen the value of my own collection grow and the genesis of the idea of my masterworks It's really taking a look at my own personal art collection and saying hey How can I securitize this and make this asset class available to anyone who wants to invest in it? The the really interesting thing about the art market and contemporary art just broadly Is that the most investable segment of the art market are really paintings above a million dollars and those those tend to be the the Artworks that have the most predictable appreciation rates. So interestingly the asset class inherently Historically has only been available to those who have enough money to buy those paintings which (7/35)
obviously is very very few people So our view is that it should be an asset class that is securitized and made available To anyone who wants to to invest in in these works of art So art has normally been a recession proof market I think is fair to say I was You bring up the fact last 26 years in performed tons of asset classes, right when comes a real estate stock market and things like that How have you performed over the last year and a half right? We had marked conditions You know just challenging mark conditions challenging mark conditions going into the future But it seems like with the numbers that you just gave me a billion dollars in platform 700,000 people that Things are going well. You guys are still growing Yeah, I mean we're definitely still growing so last year a UN doubled I think our user account our user account doubled now There's there's no question that I think performance of art overall has softened I think the question is how much is it softened? So if you look at (8/35)
our performance specifically last year on a gross basis our portfolio was up about seven point eight percent and In context with prior years that that's actually way down So we you know in prior years our portfolios been up more than 20% on a gross basis. So Definitely a down year but but compared to really any other asset class. It's still incredible. I think You know that performance is second only to to energy last year So, you know, we feel we feel really good about it I think I think art has performed if you look at data from like the late 70s and into the early 80s In prior inflationary times art has performed really well during those periods Today obviously is just kind of a new animal and there's there's lots of different Complexities of trying to figure out that the global economy in today's world, but but the portfolio is still still holding up pretty well So remember the last time we spoke this is October 2021 I believe it and you just raised money right put sure that I (9/35)
think it was over a little bit over a hundred million dollars Put your valuation over a billion Congratulations, by the way, which is fantastic Remember you saying that the average investor puts? Around five thousand dollars in initially and then thirty thousand over the lifetime have those numbers change. Have you seen More demand from that asset class or are you seeing? You know Maybe some of the ultra wealthy right who goes with Christie's and Sotheby's and things like that Start using your platform and saying hey, this might be a better idea than going just straight to auction Yeah, we don't really see that So our typical investor is not in our world person our typical investor is definitely Someone who knows knows close to nothing about art is looking to learn about the asset class for the first time Is looking to generate and generate non correlated returns as part of the overall portfolio. They're they're really just a You know typical a typical investor looking at an (10/35)
alternative asset class so that that is still our bread-and-butter investor today I think if our number was $5,000 a year and a half ago, it's it's roughly $6,000 today. So maybe that's that's come up slightly But yeah I mean we we encourage investors to get started at a very small allocation of their portfolio and then to grow over time And almost always we see investors starting out at a very small number and then growing on a monthly quarterly basis after that So talk about how the platform works because I know that and when I'm looking at it here, you know You have a great learning center. I probably lots of questions and things like that, but talk a little bit how this works So I want to buy a painting that's selling say for a million dollars and I you know, it's fractional ownership I'm gonna buy a small piece of it What happens when it's sold? How do you monitor how it's appreciating it is it appreciating where people willing to pay more for that just like a stock, right? You're (11/35)
selling off piece of a stock and it's a fractional ownership Yeah, how does that whole market work behind the scenes for someone that that's looking to do this and invest for the first time? Yeah, so maybe let's start really high level and think about kind of just our process and how we find paintings that we think are Investable in the art market. So we have mess work says about 215 employees now we have a research team of 14 people and that research team is primarily responsible for understanding What segments the art market do we think are most investable? So we look at a whole bunch of data around how different artists markets are performing How how different segments of the art market are trending and we basically come up with Certain artists markets or certain sub segments those markets that we think are most investable So our research team identifies those segments and then and then basically hands that off to our acquisitions team Which is a team of another dozen people roughly (12/35)
who then go into those artists markets and basically source Work today from over 2,000 intermediaries. So we're offered now is the biggest buyer in the art market. We're offered I think six seven hundred million dollars in art a month So really an incredible volume of art and then we're buying a small fraction of that So that's that's kind of the investment process in terms of deciding what paintings do we buy? Once we purchase the painting we file We put it into a Delaware LLC and we file that with the SEC as a registered public up public offering Once the SEC qualifies the offering we saw shares in the painting Investors buy those shares and then after the offering closes the painting starts trading on our secondary market So just like you can buy shares in Google and then trade shares in Google You can buy shares in an individual painting and then trade shares in an individual painting Eventually, the painting will will be sold and when the painting is sold those proceeds are (13/35)
distributed to shareholders So that's that's the very high level concept of the of the business and how it works That's amazing because it's for me that creates a high barrier of entry right I mean It's going to the SEC making sure the security which Leads to my next question because it seems the hardest part is getting the platform second into trading everything done, right? Now you have data analytics behind with art But is it just art because I notice on your site when you go into the learning sector You also have crypto and NFTs. I'm not too sure if you're selling NFTs or cryptos, but the fact that you go into The SEC might just answer my question there but Yeah, yeah, that's so that learning centers just kind of like very broad content on anything related to art and investing But but yeah, we we are strictly focused on our we don't do anything crypto We often get the question of how do we think about classic cars? How do we think about trading cards? You know, the reality is like (14/35)
my background is in art our senior team's background really is an art I think at the end of the day these asset classes are very complicated very hard to understand The art market's incredibly complex on its own. So I don't really see us ever going into other asset classes So, how do you achieve the growth rate? I think it's I think you said so 1.7 Billion dollar market. So, you know, a lot of people will branch out uber now is uber eats uber everything, right? So, how would you branch out because what I do see with NFTs and again, it's very hard Especially when you go into the SEC registered these paintings as security With that said open sees was doing a billion a month. They're still doing on a low end 200 300 million dollars a month It seems like you know, the younger market right there might be the demographic but how do you achieve growth? This is just taking more of that total addressable market and more marketing like you're doing and just get more people to the platform (15/35)
Because you know, obviously to increase that total addressable market sometimes maybe you have to venture out of paintings Yeah, so so so the the market that total asset class size is 1.7 trillion not not 1.7 billion so it's It's slightly slightly slightly different. But yeah, see it's a huge market, right? So it's it's estimated that roughly 60 billion dollars in art sells every year half of that is a public auction. So you have you know, you know, you have a huge Transaction volume in the asset class overall So I think from our perspective to go from 1 billion in aum to 2 billion 2 billion to 4 billion Is not that hard so that that's really just what we're focused on at the moment And the assets of the management for my curiosity because I'm fascinated by this So the assets of management is that actually in some of the artwork or some people may sell it Leave the money there and wait for something else to come along and is it kind of like a money market account or how does That's (16/35)
very interesting to me Yeah, so we do have we do have money we do have like money market account account equivalent So you can open a masterworks wallet and keep cash in the wallet But our aum numbers are just just for the art specifically. Oh cool. Cool. So AI data analytics, I mean chat gbt now is is is massive and now it's mainstream It's everywhere but are you using these things because you said I was surprised to see how big your research team is where it looks Like you really do due diligence on the paintings that that are best to put in front of your audience if that's right to say Where they had the most price appreciation potential is a lot of data analytics behind that AI or is it just hey We're hiring experts that really know their stuff within this industry Yeah, you know, I think the problems in the art world are slightly different than problems in other other industries So the challenge with the art world Frankly is that it's it's operated the same way for centuries So if (17/35)
you look at sotheby's which is one of the top two auction houses sotheby's is 275 years old It was the oldest company on the the new york stock exchange before before going private a couple years ago So, I mean this industry has literally been around for centuries and from a data perspective. There's there's never really been a great Clean data set that you can easily access to understand What prices paintings have sold for historically, etc So part of our problem separate from our research team is that we have a large data collection team Of one to two dozen people that are just manually collecting data On different things in the art market all the time. So our research team can actually analyze it but when it comes to to AI You know, we use basic machine learning models within our research team to try to predict where our prices are going for each of these artist markets In conjunction with with those data sets, but you know, we're still we're still in the early innings of of doing (18/35)
that with with this as asset class When I conduct interviews 15 years I always go back and find out as much information as possible because I like to do my homework, right? And I noticed that the marketing background I think I might have talked about this last time I interviewed you How important was that to establish this company because at the end of the day you could have the greatest idea But if you're not marketed correctly and tokenization again something that we've done with our cut with a few ever Where we sold off a piece of our company and people could buy shares in it and they actually have an actual equity ownership in our business But that's not the easiest story to tell everyone How are you able to tell this story where I see you guys everywhere? I see you guys advertising I see people talking about even social media not from you three advertisers people are talking about your work How much did your marketing background help with that? Because again tokenization is not (19/35)
the easiest story to tell everybody I think I mean look I think that's a really great question. I think it's a it's a very hard problem because I tend to I tend to take marketing problems and break them down into two different categories. One is one is um, sort of of Marketing problems where there's pre-existing intent and that's a typical easy marketing problem, right? Like if i'm selling shoes there's pre-existing intent for people to buy shoes I can go to google and I can buy the keyword um, you know some type of shoe and like that's an easy marketing problem to solve the hard marketing problems to solve are our Marketing problems where there's no intent where you have to build intent and the reality is today for masterworks 99.9 of people do not know that they can invest in art. They don't know how to invest in art They don't know how it works So we're really telling that story for the first time so I think you're right. I mean, I think these businesses early on are are largely (20/35)
marketing problems So so my background in marketing has been been really helpful with that, but it's it's still a challenge every every day No, I appreciate you sharing that right. It's always a challenge with marketing No matter how good you are at it. I think right you could always feel like you can market better It's kind of like golf right if you shoot a 59, you know There's no perfection in marketing Just there's no perfection The only sport I know where the better you get the more angry you get it yourself. So, uh, yeah marketing marketing's the same way Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. So, uh, What's the next step for you? Uh, i'm very very happy because again, I follow you guys. Uh, We've interviewed each other i've interviewed you, uh, you know a while ago over a year ago Uh, and we saw the whole spack revolution, right? So you raise money you have investors in there I mean, what are the intentions because you have the platform that's growing that makes sense That's in the right (21/35)
areas Uh, I would expect it and i'm glad you didn't do this back because the way they set up specs Uh, you could see why they're all getting crushed with the valuations they come in It's all fun and games until you know, you have a weaker market and even the good names right have come down tremendously But what are your plans? I mean your valuation I would think it probably came down like everybody else is a little bit You know in in the whole market in private markets But what are your plans because I could see this being a publicly traded company a publicly traded platform Uh, and you have the revenue you have the users you have the growth there It seems like it checks off all the boxes. But what are the plans? What's the end goal? Yeah, I mean I think I think is a you know as a founder CEO You always have to think about what the exit is I think for us the the the obvious exit is at some point to take the business the business public I still think we're we're far away from that today (22/35)
Um, you know if I think about the opportunity really high level It's just that when you look at art as an asset class historically, it's outperformed public equities It has a low correlation to other asset classes It deserves a role in every investor's portfolio in some way some way shape or form But there's never there's never been a way to invest in it and one of the the good things I guess about All of the macro dynamics I was I was telling this company at the beginning of the year Is that when we look back at the 700 000 investors who have signed up on the platform? Uh over the past whatever three plus years You know, it feels really good to know that many of those people that invested in art Over the past couple years have done much better than if they would have invested in public equities So I think we we really are creating value for investors on a daily basis And I think I think we're just in the very early innings of that, right? Like we we just want to take this asset class (23/35)
which performs better than most and has really good Uh characteristics and make it make it investable for for everyone It's also a tough compare with today's society where people want to get rich tomorrow the equity markets how volatile they are right social media and everything so When it comes to even marketing you might be like is but what is is I don't want to say the most expensive piece of probably the best piece that you sold where I think that would drive so much Traffic where hey, this is on a platform right now. You could own a piece of this, right? What was one of those pieces where you're like, wow, this is great. This is on our platform right now Maybe over the past six months to a year Yeah, I mean we you know, there's there's been so many artist markets that that have done Well over the past two or three years I think it's everything from I mean the bangxi market has just really been on fire the past couple years Um, you know that has slowed recently, but there's an (24/35)
artist named barkley hindrix This market's up 300 plus but I you know, if you take a step back I think the important thing to understand about art is that in general most of these artist markets do not accelerate Incredibly rapidly, right? Like most of them are sort of stable predictable markets The boscie market's a great example of that which is appreciated anywhere between 16 and 18 percent for the past 25 years Um, that's kind of a a stable You know more stable over performing artist market so that's the great thing about the asset class is you can find some of these artist markets which sort of Predictably appreciate without taking too much risk, but it's definitely not like enough teas or crypto where You know, you're gonna make a hundred percent in a year, but you could also Lose 50 of your money. It's it's it's not that sort of asset class no, so next steps where Going public maybe in the future you want to be able to grow a little more, uh, which is great But just to see how (25/35)
far you've come is pretty remarkable. It's got serious. I'm not saying that I'm not you know, just you know, trying to catch your ass or anything But it is remarkable because against an industry I truly believe in is what we do with our company when it comes to tokenization to see how far you've taken it uh There's not like this hype around like crypto or things like that. I mean, it's a real company It's growing people that use your service all love it Uh, it's just pretty fascinating to see how far you've come and i'm looking forward to see the next steps over the next Year or two. So, uh with that said if someone wants to learn more obviously go to masterworks.com Get in touch with you But any other ways of social media platforms or anything else because i'm sure when people listen to this They're going to be uh, definitely interested in learning more about your company Yeah, I mean the the best way to learn more about the company and really learn more about the asset class is to go (26/35)
to masterworks.com Request access to the platform. I see you've got an account there request access to the platform Um schedule calls one of our financial advisors. We have a team of 40 50 financial advisors that Literally just on board investors all day long and they they ask about portfolio size risk tolerance how you're investing today Then they help you think through um, how art can play a role In your your investment objectives and what you're trying to achieve So I think that's really the the best place to start and then uh, always feel free to reach out to me if there's there's any questions So request invitation and then somebody actually gets on the phone with you Yeah, so we're big believers in that because I think most people with this asset class are unfamiliar with it They don't know how to think about it. They don't know how to think about an allocation to art as part of their overall portfolio They're not sure how to think about uh diversification within art um, so we (27/35)
really believe in having financial advisors talk to uh individual investors and act as fiduciaries to help them think through some of those those very very specific things around around risk and allocation and Um how they should think about investing for the first time Nah, it's great stuff. Well scott. Listen, I I So happy for your success seeing you grow over a couple years And and I know it's going to continue to happen over the next few years So hopefully you join us again and thank you so much for uh coming on wall street. I really appreciate it, man Awesome. Thanks for having me Great stuff from scott I feel like I have close ties with him in the tokenization world right early to the party Told you that ces Had a big setup with a stage and separate companies all talking about tokenization. I'm walking by going I didn't like two three years ago guys, you know, it's pretty cool Uh and scott did as well. So I love what he's doing at masterworks. I had no idea that he was resonating (28/35)
rps with the sec Uh makes sense, right? It's considered security that people buy and sell and host make a profit on that sounds familiar It's exact definition for 99 of all the old coins or the shit coins that trade on numerous crypto exchanges Which the sec has yet to provide the regulatory framework for trading cryptos And this includes launching bitcoin ets, why don't we have bitcoin ets what's the problem here? Why don't we have that? We have future markets and products for the beat bitcoin in for futures. Why not? Why why are they dragging their feet on this? It's amazing But definitely check out the platform. Let me know what you think And we ended that conversation where he was talking about nfts and I said look nfts It's a massive market for a massive market for him And I know you know, a lot of stuff has to get registered but yeah, I have close ties to that industry now it took me a long time to To build there's a lot of bullshit in the industry just like crypto and The nft (29/35)
projects that i'm coming across are amazing. So, you know, I shared contacts and said listen, these are the guys that I trust that I built, uh, you know relationships with it took me a while and You know traveling a lot and going crazy and and you know, i'm getting old these days at 50 But that's why you have to be in the room for these things, right? It's very important Uh to build those relationships and he was interested in that he's like, yeah I just don't know anything about nfts. I want to learn more about I said, you know, me too You know, I know about nfts but holy cow, you know for me I want to make sure that once we launch it, we're going to launch a newsletter about it Provide great great services throughout that industry with people who are experts Uh that i've learned from where my biggest thing is, you know I don't want to anyone to get scammed that people get scammed a lot in this industry You need to learn there's a learning curve there. But when you explain it to (30/35)
people you could see how nfts are the future that's the future of the platform and Man masterworks will see incredible incredible growth The hardest part is getting that platform up and running trading platform sec and stuff like that. You have that Now it's just throwing more and more stuff on that platform and I think it's a good idea and we'll see maybe work to get in the future, but uh, Uh for that interview and masters, I love bringing new ideas, right? alternative asset classes too, especially during volatile markets like Yeah, what we see right this week Not even this week, but look at nasdaq right crash 35 a few months ago only surge They have a 10 in january up another three percent in february already after the fed meeting And amazes me. I mean the fed is there we said they said they're going to continue to raise rates I mean mention the word disinflation a couple positives here and there but still, you know going to continue to raise rates They're not going to lower anytime (31/35)
soon inflation still stubbornly high in many areas But this volatility is going to continue through 2023 well into 2024 Uh with the fed doing everything is power to force a recession make sure that unemployment rises helps solve inflation but uh This alternative asset class is pretty cool for anyone and that's my job to try to bring you ideas new ideas Expand the horizon there with crypto nfts everything. What do I feel that? I'm investing in or you can make money on i'm going to bring to you So I say this all the time. This is about you not about me So let me know you thought frankkurzyresearch.com. That's frank at kurzyresearch.com and that's it for me. But before I go Before I go I have a special surprise for you I will have Another interview for you on friday. Okay, do my frankly speaking podcast, which is available to paid subscribers only Yeah, you just gotta subscribe to any one of our services even the cheapest one you get frank This isn't frankly speaking. This is a special (32/35)
interview It's a great guest who has one of the deepest networks in terms of celebrities professional athletes Influencers ceos than anyone I know Saying a lot And this person's gonna actually interview me on saturday during a live stream for the sommelery all-star basketball game with thomas macarena in vegas on saturday There's gonna be tons of superstars that he invited me there I cannot go because i'm actually going to be moving a lot of my stuff out of my house that day Uh, and then you get the soup bowl next week with my daughter's birthday on it So I it's just too difficult for me to get back to vegas and go across the country But floyd meadoway weather's gonna be there Uh gary paton dennis robb and eric dickerson Uh michael vick devo samuel stefan digs a whole bunch of people, uh and and frank curzio. Oh my god so Uh, it's just being in the right circles You know, you're gonna see how I met this person just you know out of nowhere and next thing I know i'm like Wow, this guy's (33/35)
pretty cool. I like him. I think you're gonna like this interview. It's really really cool and special interview Where i'll also be making a super special announcement about wall street unplug Which I know you're going to love it's something that we've been building for the past few months Some of our subscribers got emails already about it I'm, very excited, uh, but we're gonna make the major announcement during that interview right after that interview Which is going to take place on friday. So be sure to have your itunes set to automatic download for wall street unplugged So once we publish the podcast on friday, it's going to automatically alert you or maybe an ik Frank doesn't publish ever on friday other than frankly speaking Just again, that's a different service. It's not on itunes This is going to go on itunes i'm going to send it to you again with the special announcement special interview really really cool Added value to you because I love you guys, but it's a must listen (34/35)
And yeah, just love my value for you guys. Let me know what you thought about everything. Seriously, frank Curzioresearch.com i'm here for you. That's it for me and I'll see everyone not just my paid subscribers for frankly speaking, but i'll see everyone Tomorrow take care Wall street unplugged is produced by curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on wall street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The Fed can no longer save us.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream It's going out there. It's October 7th. I'm Frank Curzio host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break that headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So we got a great interview set up for you With the one and only Andrew Horowitz who was the president founder of hearts and company who's a currently smart analyst also incredibly handsome Has I don't want to say the second best podcast in the world of the first called discipline investor Andrew how's it going man? How's everything? Hey Frank, what's happening, man? You know what it's so funny It's so funny because Yeah, I did that like I've been doing this. How long have you been doing your podcast? I think I started a little bit after you you've been doing it. Yeah, I was in 2007 okay, so I think it was like (1/35)
2008 when I took over for Kramer and Did it the whole time that I worked at Stansberry? They wanted me to a live broadcast there from podcasts right and I had it like a guest I think was Stephanie link at the time and I started it and I said Frank Curzio Wall Street Unplugged where I break that headlines And and the whole freaking crowd was like tell you what's really moving the markets. I'm like wow they actually like this So you're like a major like rock legend that all he has to do is point a microphone in the way of the audience and They start singing the song Yeah, I hear you I hear so Let's get let's get right into it here. I mean the markets are really all over the place. I'm sure you're getting You know just questions from clients I'm getting questions from subscribers And you know it's just you it's tough to see because we're not getting like that quick move down And then you know by the dip right it's 500 here 500 there up down You know now September was like the first month (2/35)
out of the last seven that that you know market went down But we're seeing some real indications of things where the foundation is You know cracking a little bit. I mean ten years obviously rising you're seeing you know Evergrande. You know what was an issue Supply chain issues are definitely for real and getting worse Inflation through the roof labor shortages, but yet there's art there are companies that are able to pass on these costs And have pricing power It seems like a very confusing market to most people where they're nervous which sometimes is a good thing when you know everyone's not Leaning to one side of being bullish or bearish, but there is concerns out there I don't want to see you know how you handling this, and you know what are your thoughts on what's going in the markets? You know I think one of the big things that we have to understand and recognize right now is some of the Reason we're seeing this volatility is that we are once again in that timeframe when you have (3/35)
all these Congress and said you know Congress Congressmen and Senators and everybody involved in government looking to get the limelight ahead of the sausage-making process until I think every single Person in Congress and maybe even government goes in front of a microphone I feel like we're not gonna see an end to this whole thing right now the big debate Without getting too political is really all about politics It's not about whether or not we should increase the debt ceiling everybody knows We should increase the debt ceiling it's not a question, but the political Gamery and and what's going on pushing the Democrats to move towards a simple majority? Is gonna set the stage up for the Republicans when in fact if in fact they win back The Senate at least to the point where we are today and kind of a slight advantage Having them the ability to do so because now to make well well you did it you did it now We could do it so what's happening is this push me pull me and this whole market (4/35)
movement Is all based on this big concern where Janet Yellen said hey? You know what if we do not increase the debt ceiling the next two weeks We can go through a default that's not gonna happen We know that the problem is that the the shenanigans that are being pulled by the government every single time There's some kind of a action like this the same thing happens. It doesn't change earnings. It doesn't change economics It just causes a lot of problems and consternation Earnings are the big problem right now as you mentioned at the top where you talked about inflation. I think that's really what we should be getting into the idea of whether or not the excess cost can be passed on and and whether or not it is inflation due to blank supply or demand or combination is Really the big issue right now, and I think that really the supply chain thing is really the the the nuts and bolts About what's happening with prices, and that's a big concern And that's gonna play out because we have You (5/35)
know significant amount of earnings expectations that are built in right now, and that so you add that all together And then one more thing that sherry on the top Frank is the loss of confidence in the Fed The confidence has been lost over slowly But surely over time when they just kept on telling us that no don't worry about it We can keep on pumping money in the system. It's not gonna be a problem for inflation Oh, there's a little inflation, but it's transitory oh Maybe it's not as transitory and then finally oh and by the way some of the gang here has been trading on the news and the information that we know about and Even though they shouldn't be there's a conflict of interest so confidence in the Fed which is a mainstay of any Of the market movement right now because a lot of what we're doing is fueled by the Fed. I think is really hurting investors right now All great points, let's take you know I don't forget to one of the time, but one of the biggest issues I think when you're (6/35)
saying earning season we're getting to the holiday season right the holiday period Right now inventory levels are incredibly low You're seeing fights for container ships. We saw coca-cola. Just announced you know yesterday that They're changing from container ships to dry bulk cargo, which is amazing That is amazing when you think about it just and they're saving costs even though dry bulk prices are up 5x at 5,000 right now and you're looking at You know container ships are what 2000 year ago, and they're like over 14,000 or something like 7x, right? So yeah, they are saving money, but you I have friends that are paying 21,000 That's yeah I mean we all have great sources in this industry if you do have net we all but if you just talk to these people And listen to people who are in this industry it is insane You look at the holiday period is supposedly the greatest money generating revenue generating Not so much earnings with all discounts sometimes, but that's a major period for these (7/35)
companies How are they gonna get? The supply and is it something we need to worry about because we're seeing it where I've seen just in the past three to four weeks I'm talking about 3m GE You know Honeywell tons of companies say let's like a key Walmart right Sherman Williams I mean you can keep going to FedEx And you know all is having a pastry for weeks, and it just leads me to believe that you know these are not This is a much much bigger problem, I think everyone's everyone believes right now It's gonna result in an uncertainty which the markets hate uncertainty right so how do you play the market going in because buying something? Right now if they come out and warn which we're seeing right we're seeing companies miss estimates and warn right now the warning period It's hard not to warn because it's just just on the safe side be like hey We might not be like look what Delta did Delta warned a month ago And then this month they raised our estimates back and said hey demands back (8/35)
right so if you want these Downgraded and airlines down which is confusing as hell I So you know how do you position yourself say as an individual investor? I mean do you buy into this market he takes small positions because right now it seems like for a risk-reward standpoint It's very very very dangerous Well, I think the market has to be split up though. That's the big issue right now retailers for example You have a situation going on in Vietnam where? The the COVID lockdowns have shut down a lot of factories the only way that you can actually work is if you go and live In the factories now over time if you remember what happened we shifted our Production of things like you know shirts and cotton wear and things of that nature from China to Vietnam right we moved them because we felt That it was a lot more Beneficial for pricing well we moved this whole block it was like all excited about Vietnam and now Vietnam is shutting down What happens what happens is you don't get your (9/35)
clothes out of there and the problem for like companies like the Gap and Old Navy And Walmart for that matter and other places that get their imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam that are Cambodia that that are having problems with production add that to the fact that even if they did get that container out which now cost the final Selling company the retailer much more money due to the fact that that that the container prices are more expensive You get to the Port of Los Angeles And you're waiting you're stacked up 80 boats deep because it's not enough truck drivers Which is bizarre by the way the whole thing about what's going on in the supply chain is from bizarro land Right the school children that can't get to school because many of the people that were laid off decide to maybe Start working for Amazon or uber and there's not enough school bus drivers the same thing that you don't have Truck drivers that got into different places when they were out of the job for a while So (10/35)
the the problem with the restart of the economy is very uneven what they say It's because it doesn't naturally just go from off to on some of the things are just not there and when you look at the the problems that you're mentioning and While I may want to go and buy a particular I don't know shirt or suit it may not be there because of all of this Therefore the school the store doesn't get the revenue and I'm not necessarily going just buy something else in his place So there is the potential for a slowdown due to the fact that there's no supply and that's that's a problem so That's just one of the problems what is the feds playbook right now? Okay, because this is one of the other things you wish with the Fed and the supply chain issue because the supply chain issue is Causing inflation so it's you know, it's hand-in-hand What's the flip fed paper and listen before you spun because the Fed right now it has a choice where okay? No tapering Keep rates low Inflation you're risking (11/35)
inflation getting out of control, especially we pass the infrastructure bill, right? Cuz I have no idea how you can't ship anything right now Imagine what world material be war material price going through the roof was seeing it one by one by one right now It's cotton. It was lumber. It's it's you know everything everything so or do they go ahead and Taper and also start raising rates because that's gonna have an environment where you're still gonna see inflation, but now you're gonna see Very slow growth. It's gonna slow right so then you have stagflation, which is a major concern but What's the feds playbook here? Cuz it sounds like they're like praying that well, we thought it was gonna be transitory We know it's not transitory What do we do and I don't know what they're gonna do because this is a one solution if inflation gets that That's the one thing the Fed can't control by throwing money at it, right? They could bail out anyone they want like in the past But this is a one thing (12/35)
where you have to do the opposite you have to take money out of the system You have to raise rates. You're gonna see massive to leveraging, you know, the corny come out of the market It's gonna be insane It's gonna be insane where you know risk off right risk off environment a lot of companies could get hurt But you know, what's that? I'm curious to know what the Fed play, but I don't know what they're gonna do and Here you go, I have announcement, you know it I have clarity I have clarity I'm not kidding about this either Okay Every once in a while you have clarity on if it hit me only a couple of days ago seriously When I heard one of the Fed speakers talk about that They are going to start to taper and they were complete the tapering by mid to let's say the mid part of 2022 That's what they said, right? I'm thinking myself Hmm, they're gonna taper they're gonna go from where we are at 120 billion dollars per month right now and they're gonna start moving over to tapering and Turning (13/35)
off quantitative easing by the middle part of 2022. How does that work? And then I realized something They're talking about tapering Tapering it's going from something big to small taper your pants You got a it goes from the wide leg down to a small leg. And what they're talking about is tapering not Discontinuing the taper may only be 20 billion dollars of total asset purchases that they reduce down Five billion dollars per month over the next four or five months. You follow what I'm saying here They will continue because they don't know how to do anything But and they have to do the fact that the government is issuing this much debt. They're gonna continue quantitative easing They're gonna taper in the taper program Which is just a small reduction will be done very slowly and it will be just a small amount I'm probably figuring they're gonna go down on the outsides Forty billion dollars a month to get in line with what they were doing during the financial crisis of 80 billion dollars (14/35)
a month That's what I think they're gonna do it's not gonna be which is still enormous and I don't think that's gonna slow down the economy That much it will create a liquidity issue for certain areas, but I think that will have the impact of actually Benefiting markets in the long run not allowing them to get over the top bubbly And the reason why this is important right so talking economics here is it's a top-down approach because if you could figure or try to figure what the feds gonna do because We know a lot more than the fit we see it real time A lot of these guys at the Fed a lot of these guys on TV. They're on TV all the time They're hanging out rich circles. They don't see the labor shortages. Your favorite places are now closing They're not even like operating 80% capacity and you're waiting there all day They're closing because they can't get people to work there. Right? So we're seeing prices through everywhere We know that but if the Fed does start Tapering or if we see (15/35)
inflation continue to go out of control. I mean, we're kind of seeing it now, right? What are the the areas financials do good in higher interest rate environments? We've seen inflation with at the beginning right here with oil prices really taking off and then you're also seeing the hit in technology Which is showing inflation because these are the guys generate the most money from the capex spending from everyone else Right now margins are already high so they can't cut their margins like cyclical companies So they people say why technology companies directly impacted because it affects the advertising budgets It expects capital spending the capex across the board and these companies as rates rise They're gonna have to shrink their budgets, which means less money is gonna go to advertising and Facebook So all these tells us telling us inflation Are these the places that we need to buy or this how you positioning yourself or is it? I've been leading so we have several different (16/35)
strategies, right? We have we have a kind of a long short strategy which by the way we're using cash as a buffer because it's almost impossible to hedge out a portfolio right now of Positioning when you have a market this up 500 one day down five and down 300 Midday up 400 then back down even by the end of the day, right and these are all signs of late-stage late stage market madness Along with what's going on with the with the Congress and the Fed. I think you have to lean If you're in a diversified approach and you're thinking about protecting for inflation as we do in our global allocations For example as we do with invest ology, which is diversified portfolio you lean Towards the the value for for a hundred different reasons one being that they have underperformed for the last five years and The catch-up trade is almost inevitable which is happening with energy Look, look if you don't think that all of this is inflationary. Look what's happening with oil There's not a supply issue (17/35)
or demand issue It's simply the fact that there's speculative action going on opex not pumping anymore and even though we know that the need for oil has severely been reduced and cut by Airlines not flying cars not really out the trucks not so much out there We just talked about the ports and and all the things that are going on It's insane that we have that Brent is over 83 and WTI is what 76 and change Some of this and natural gas has doubled this year coal prices through the roof, you know I mean all of this that is going on is a is the excess amount of liquidity in the markets and the inflationary environment That is right in front of everybody's face the Fed won't admit it their job is not to admit it their job You've been around Frank. Let me ask you something. When's the last time you saw the Fed say You know things aren't looking so good Actually, I really get here a lot of CEOs say that often until like recently about everything But everyone always talks positive about their (18/35)
company. They say oh, yeah I'm talking to CEOs if you and obviously you're on the same way you're gonna talk about the positives But you know, you're right you don't see them, you know, especially in the political world as well, right? They're not gonna backtrack and say hey, we got this right happens how things miserable every client has left me. It's terrible Hey, why don't you do business with me? No never backtracking so so so okay, let's get into some of the positions here So you did offer some speculative positions last time that didn't work out as well. You have one of the best performances You know being on this pocket of such a long time So you're gonna get some wrong some right? That's okay. It was work work house in a indeedy. I kind of like DDS Yeah, I hate to interrupt your show Sorry Frank, but you can interrupt my show anytime, but I did say these were highly speculative These were kind of one-off specialties. I said, you know, these are kind of like these Wildcards and (19/35)
it was you know, if one thing goes right they could do really well There was a little pop on the beginning. But yes, those yeah, those sucked and look To all of us right if you look at your track record of being on this podcast It really is incredible So and I know you're always fair because you actually brought that up and said hey I mentioned this last time and that's what I love about you, right because for me too. I like it Just am I losing one of my winners? That's what you learn the most But now you're looking at this environment everything that we talked about What are some of the areas you're looking at, you know individual names, which you love giving out? What are some of the things that that are attractive going into an earning season that that's kind of like a you know A little scary right now So a couple of thinner thinner Traded positions that are interesting and if you think about everything and you agree with what we just talked about the higher cost for For commodities (20/35)
and goods the problem with supply chains the problem with Asia That all I started thinking about where's that all go Well get companies like a Wayfair or an RH restoration hardware the furniture companies They're smack dab in the middle of problem zone So it would seem to me that there's a lot of pain Ahead for these guys and if we have a slowing economy it even gets you know worse if we have a reopening Wayfair maybe not selling so much furniture to do a pop-up office in your house And even though their margins are high because their furniture is awful Okay They mark it up. I have yet to I don't think maybe maybe once or twice but generally anything I've ordered from Wayfair I've either sent back or they said don't bother sending it back. Just keep it It's something's broken or chipped or warped or I'm not kidding about this either. So They obviously have and I could tell you a lot of people talk to your friends and ask them Hey, have you ever tried to return something to Wayfair? (21/35)
What do they do? It is they keep it or They'll send it back to you and give you fifty or a hundred dollars off and send you another one something crazy like that So they obviously have pretty good margins when it comes to what's going on with that RH also the opposite side of the spectrum really great furniture Extraordinarily high prices, you know in Ottoman is like five grand You've been in there right RH. Mm-hmm Yes, yes How much can people buy after a while and what and if there's a supply chain is you're getting it that's a problem On the other side of it So that's kind of like some short ideas and the other side kind of Netflix really knocking it out of the park With the fact that they're continuing and have the ability they are pricing pressure of the pricing power They think about it if Netflix does a one Dollar a month fifty cents a month a two dollar a month increase in your fees. What are you gonna do? nothing and It's kind of like a frog boiling in a pot unless they do (22/35)
something absurd But even if they went five dollars a month, what are you gonna do? Nothing? Nothing, nobody's gonna cancel and the pricing power that they have is incredible they do Has it Disney doesn't have it because Content is coming on that platform Right. They they were just like let's add as many subscribers for free as we can and people bought into that model And now you've seen it slow down But when I look at streaming when I look at Netflix, there's this one difference every did the major actors actresses Love it. They all come away Loving it saying this is the greatest experience and they lock them in and they give them whatever they want They treat them great and they all love that platform where they have amazing new content AT&T is another one with both of those guys spending 20 billion dollars a year on new content and Disney I mean their cash flow is still terrible is still getting you know impacted with international travel and stuff But yeah, they don't have that (23/35)
constant cash flow coming in especially like an AT&T which has 30 billion dollars 27 billion dollars in free cash flow coming in but When I look at Netflix just a clear winner Reed Hastings is the most competitive guy you'll ever know I remember when yep, he was yeah took down blockbuster He went they went to blockbuster during the the credit crisis and they're looking to get sold and they were laughing at them And then he wanted destroyed that guy's one of those competitors. That's why when Disney comes in he goes on TV He's like it's good more people get into our markets. That's not that's no that's He's like we're murdering these guys and we're gonna bury more fun And that's what I like about it. But yeah, Netflix is just I mean squid game. I haven't seen it yet Watching it is it again episode? Yeah. I'm in episode two. I think it's entertaining, you know the idea That you go in and play a game. Everybody knows the basic principles of going to play a game and Unbeknownst to you. (24/35)
It's kind of like we'll either create incredible freedom and financial Security for you or you're gonna die So it takes you through life and gets you close to some of the people kind of an interesting interesting and the one difference also is you mentioned that that Netflix the the actors really like and the people that go they come away saying Great things as opposed to Disney where they sue them And not only the Sue Disney but Disney came out and like trashed her they were just like well, you should have more respect. That was cold But I was like, whoa, I was like you do not do that. She's extremely powerful, right? I mean, that's a powerful actress in Hollywood, man. You don't want to piss that person off, but There is one Good Idea a genre Is crisper technology crisper editing, you know the biotech area we've seen a lot of moves of companies that we're doing the vaccines etc and the and the mrna's and all that and Pfizer BioNTech etc, but I'm kind of digging the whole and I'd like (25/35)
this for a long period of time. They have a lot of opportunity If you look at the fundamentals, you're not gonna really find anything right now But if they make a hit which they're kind of starting to get some things going on here two companies edit edit And crisper technology see Crsp are interesting. And finally the one that you think you want to talk about is a firm And we talked about the shopping situation We talked about what's going on a firm entered into the old world of installment payments. That was like Back in the days when you buy a suit or whatever from Macy's right you'd go and you'd go Say well put it on layaway. I'll pay you $20 a month. I'll pick it up in six months That's great or installment plan. We could actually take it and they would do this now MasterCard Visa have had this for years, but it wasn't as cool it wasn't as workable where you could have a zero interest rate on very short-term loans the The retailers love this Amazon recently made announcement to (26/35)
bring in a firm in a firm You could do like a buy now pay layer later or the fancy way to say is BN PL is a way to do it a firm basically It's a cut of the deal from the retailer up whatever is negotiated. They also get potentially some money up from zero percent on some items and some agreements to Ten to thirty percent on longer installment plans. It's a micro lending platform essentially for Specific goods and it's it's not backed by anything, you know when you buy it, it's just a signature. They'll do a background checks They have great algorithms and today or yesterday. I guess it was yesterday The announcement came late, but Target is now using a firm and the stock is jamming up as well So you got great earnings that came out Amazon Target and they're not they don't think it's not like Walmart would say Oh Targets using a firm. We're not going to you know Other companies even competitors can use a firm because the theory is I can go in and say oh I have $100 to spend today online (27/35)
on something. I'm gonna buy a skirt or I'm gonna not me but my wife or you know, I'm gonna buy a certain I'm gonna buy a certain item that I want for fishing and I have $100 well all of a sudden that hundred I can spread out because like well I was gonna spend a hundred but I'm gonna spend four hundred because I'm gonna pay 100 a month for four months right and this way it kind of can really been this is why a lot of the Players want this as opposed to okay Of course, they could spend more on MasterCard and figure it out on their own But they could put a little thing on there and say only pay $25 a month for the next four months click this button and it's a seamless transaction a f r m Just edit Added more to my client portfolios this week Okay, so there's there's usually like a format whenever we actually going on the podcast We'll just send like, you know, just bullet points say this this this is the things that we're talking about And you send some ideas one idea that you didn't (28/35)
mention that you had on your list Was a company that I have to tell you that I never heard of before and it's Asana and You know, this is a pretty amazing company where you know, probably helped practice every platform I never heard of this company before has a 20 billion dollar valuation. I'm looking at this freaking chart. Holy cow I guess it's cuz you know, what it must IPO, you know 2020 but man, I mean what this is, you know, just interesting I love to see just to see them move and of course It's come off like most stocks, you know the past month or so, but just to see this move here. It is pretty incredible It's a you know, is that a name that you see you're looking into but I like just new ideas I never heard of but what these guys do enable teams. It's orchestrate work basically increased productivity. Obviously, this is a platform That's working because you're seeing more demand you're seeing earnings explode and you're seeing yeah, that's not price follow So this is one of (29/35)
those stocks one of those companies that I've actually used their product for a number of years And it was too dumb to buy it on the IPO kind of thing, right Because they really didn't have earnings etc. You know, all the different things that go into that play, right? Let's see how it plays out and then you saw that chart. It was like a moonshot. So Asana is a great product It's used by a lot of developers and other teams. Basically what you could do is something like this. Let's say that you and I Have a particular project that we're working on Let's say this podcast, you know Every time that I come on the podcast you give me It's the Horowitz Curzio podcast and every time you want something there you put a little note in okay, here's your assignment Whatever you can spec it out. You can use calendaring and all that inside very simple to use track all of that Maybe I put some notes up there a screenshot up there All of that is just dedicated to our work environment on this podcast, (30/35)
right? So you say hey, we're coming on tomorrow What graphics which things you want? I upload it from my desk you get it We can have multiple people on the same team. We can complete it. We can post it We could postpone it add more Under the project add more tasks. I use that with all the developers I work with and it really works Well, I have a five person And I don't pay anything. It's five people you get for free Under five. That's pretty cool Good project management you got to get used to it, you know, but once you do great product I think it's a great buyout candidate and that's why the stock's moving rather than just the underlying fundamentals Yeah, no, it definitely makes sense so as always love the ideas we have one minute just one minute left So I always love giving you time to just you know, talk about your company if people want to get in touch with you How could they do that? Well, let me hang on. Oh No, I was coming off to put your website ready, but I just started. Yes. (31/35)
There you go. I love the mustache I love the mustache so much. It's so awesome man. It's so like Tom Selleck I love it. If you guys we did this most of you know that we have our YouTube channel, but that is so awesome But the discipline investor love the book love it And then you have you know, I have your website up right now if you know, so discipline Yeah, basically you want to work with us. We have variety of different strategies and programs available from in this technology We start to $10,000 diversified using a band of different range of risk our TDI manage growth strategy, which is traditionally a long short right now We're leaning on the long side generally speaking with a buffer and our global allocation So it's all there and you can check that all out over on that Yep Gives you all the stuff there and how to get in touch with us plus the podcast of course the agent plug Tuesday nights live and on your favorite podcast Catchers as well as the discipline investor been running (32/35)
for for for 14 years now That's in seconds of only one which is Frank Curzio's fantastic. I know we met that long ago, right? Podcasts you tell me what you say you have a podcast like big I got one too I'm like, no, no, no We have a podcast for like 13 14 15 years and now everybody has one. It's so funny everybody XP advice I'm sure you get it too, and I tell them all that I'm gonna tell you exactly how it works and how you can stay On long but you're not gonna do it And it's sure enough. They're right a couple months a lot of work. It's a lot of work. It's a lot of energy It's getting on good guess. It's you know, staying ahead of the markets being Original but it's it requires a lot of time and commitment. I love it I know you love it, but if you don't love it and you're just trying to do it, it never works, right? It's never works in any right. So I'd love to see that. We're both in this game and thanks for coming on me You know, I love you have been friends for a very very long (33/35)
time Love all the ideas and if you do happen to go on that amazing trip I know it's a I thought it was a guarantee, but you may be heading to Egypt. Not too sure. Hopefully you are It's gonna be awesome Definitely enjoy that but and I'm sure I'll talk to you before and I just let you know around the corner Frank around the corner Is sailfish season is about to start up. Have you caught a selfish yet Frank? No But I am I'm definitely coming to your house because every time you I'm sick of you sending me like these Massive massive fish all the time and I always see them and I'm like man. I gotta go I gotta go So yes, it is. Just let me get you a sailfish Frank. No, definitely. I'm definitely what is it? What does it start when I see you start? well Usually it's a well it wouldn't be for where you are but up here when we we officially call it when the first cold snap Happens when you like the day that you walk outside go. Wow, it's kind of cold out that day Is the start of self a season? (34/35)
It's probably mid November. All right, I'm in I'm definitely in seriously. I'm definitely in Alright man, thanks so much for coming on guys Thanks, buddy. That's it for me questions comments for the email Frank Curzio research calm. That's Frank Curzio Research calm really appreciate all the support and I'll see you guys next week. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Why the move to 'go green' is complete bulls***.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – What's going on today? It's February 8th, and I'm Frank Curzio with the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. We just came back from Daytona, where my daughter had a gymnastics competition. The last one was a couple weeks ago. She didn't perform that well. She blamed everything under the sun, except for herself, and being her dad and competitive, I said, nope, you can do better than that. She's like, what are you saying? I did bad. I said, hey, you know, I'm your dad. I'm going to tell you the truth because I know you're better than this. Like, if she really sucked, I'd be like, wow, you did great, honey. You're awesome. But I'm like, you're so much better than this. Come on. You can do (1/35)
better. And, you know, I really pumped her up, and she was relaxed for this competition. She did much better. She was leading her entire team after the first two events, which was the floor and the beam, and the floor was amazing, her performance. She really stuck one of the landings. Everyone was like, whoa, and crazy. And then she did decent on the vault because it's kind of like the Olympics, like four events. And then came the bars, and she slipped off. Not fell or anything, but she came off the bars and on her feet, and she got a bad mark, which lowered her score. But I was really proud of her. I love the confidence. She's really good. It's hard to do good in every single event. Usually people have one or two good events. If she really got a good score in that, she probably would have finished fourth place. This was like a premier event, though. I mean, people take this seriously. They take pictures of their kids, and they make pants out of them. And I'm a gymnastics mom and dad. (2/35)
It's like over the top. I mean, it's those kids' beauty pageant things where they make movies on them, and reality shows it's kind of like that. I mean, parents are just over the top, like insane. They know every single thing that's going on. And I'm just like, hey, just all right. Just learning. But yeah, I'm proud of her. She's only been doing it for two years. She's really, really good, and she's got confidence. It was a lot of fun. It was a lot of fun. And this place in Daytona, it wasn't just like a regular gym. It was a stadium. I mean, you had to sit up the second level. You couldn't sit on a floor. You had to sit on the top level, second level. And the competition took place on Sunday, right? So her group started around 1145. So the place was about two hours away from my house. But the day before, my wife... And this was the day before, but we left the day before, left the setting, got a hotel in Jacksonville. Because a few weeks ago, my wife joined a Facebook group from (3/35)
Jacksonville, and all Jacksonville moms wanted to hang out, and new moms, and stuff like that. And I was just hoping that that wasn't a future divorce mom club or whatever. But anyway, it was like 30 girls that were like, hey, we're gonna go out and have a good time, because we're moving to Jacksonville. We're building a house there. So she's like, hey, I like to hang out. I said, listen, why don't we drive there? I'll get a hotel. I'll take the kids, hang out with the kids. You go out, and I'll pick you up. What a great husband. I am awesome. And got that hotel. She went out drinking and partying. I took the kids to one of those jumping trampoline parks. Maybe not the best idea since my daughter, and a few hours later, the next morning, had to go to the gymnastics competition. But she's young, right? She's young. Got home like 10 p.m., and then she was on stage at 11, 11.45. But again, she could handle it. Nice being young. But anyway, I picked up my wife. We had a great time. Got a (4/35)
little drunk. Lots of fun. And you guys, happy wife equals happy life, right? That's the way it goes. And give and take, and she's done a lot for me, and just been crazy at the company, as you know. But again, that happy wife and happy life is a good thing. At least when you do something good, that's for a few days, right? That lasts. So you get good vibes for a few days until stuff goes back to normal. It's always crazy since we're driving the kids everywhere, and I'm running the business and stuff. It was a really good weekend, in all seriousness. Just spending time with the family, which was needed, working so hard. It's nice to just step away, because Monday was a really big day for us and our company, Curzio Research. Curzio Equity Owners' Token went live in a TZERO platform yesterday. It was a big event for a company, and it was a huge success since we did more volume on TZERO and TZERO's alternative trading platform. We don't call them exchanges here in the US, or regulation, (5/35)
whatever. But we did more volume in one day than our token did in almost a full year on the foreign exchange that we traded on. I'm not saying anything bad about foreign exchange. We just didn't get any volume on it, right? And liquidity for the security token market is huge. It's the last missing component for an industry that's bigger than anything I've ever analyzed in my 30-year career. And actually, I could say it's probably bigger than anything I've ever analyzed combined in my 30-year career. There's literally hundreds of trillions of assets that could become tokenized, where you sell off a piece of that asset to investors in a tradable token or shares. I should own commercial real estate. Again, I covered this over the past few weeks. You know, bonds. Bond managers, one bond manager saying, this is a great idea, because look at fixed income and the prices. And look with market, and you're wondering why it's usually the highest margin, best performing business when it comes to (6/35)
investment banking is their fixed income division. Take a look when they report earnings. So looking at the size of this market, it's huge and exciting. But anyway, look, this is an endorsement for our Curzio Equity Owners token. If you want to buy, buy. If not, don't buy. I'm not allowed to talk about the price, just like Microsoft's not allowed to talk about their price. That's up to you. You know, I can only control what I control. And working hard, get my team constantly building this company, make it bigger, bigger. This gives you a direct equity stake, just like it would as if it were a shareholder, and allows you to trade as a retail investor. And hopefully that'll be reflecting the price if we continue to grow. But what I can say is this. Try to learn everything you can about this industry. I think I might have said that term a few times in the past three, four weeks. And you could do so by going to our Curzio Equity Owners site, looking at token tracker we created. You can go (7/35)
to T0. You could just go to Google and research security tokens, and you're going to be fascinated. It's just a fantastic concept that really levels the playing field between Wall Street and Main Street. And I think every single one of you listening to this podcast right now, which is a lot of you, talk about that later, it's a lot of you now. It's something we all want. We all want to make money without being taken advantage of from asshole elites with fancy lawyers that don't give a shit about you, just give a shit about themselves. Of what we've seen with the BS SPACs in the marketplace, look how much those got crushed. Those guys were at them long time before you and at a much better price. What about the over-hyped, inflated IPOs the past two years? I mean, how many are they trading well, well, well under that first day trading price? But those of you who've been following me for a long time, for a really long time, the podcast is close to 15 years now. But in 2010, I said, learn (8/35)
everything you can about fracking. I had great contacts in the industry, I traveled, went on rigs, went to over 20 counties in the Eagle Ford, went to the Permian Basin, went to the Bakken in North Dakota. And I was just talking to people, learning, and not just the people in the oil industry. And this was back in 2011, I think, when I went to the Bakken. And the Walmart employees were paying like 20, $25 an hour. And that's how much you were making just people working in hotels. And it was a booming, booming, booming economy. It was well over $100. I was just fascinated, saying, wow, this technology is here. It's amazing. It's not BS. They're trying to put it down, the climate evangelists are trying to say that it creates water contamination, which is impossible to do unless you physically take out all the chemicals and dump them in an ocean or a water or a pond or something like that. That's different. But they frack thousands of feet below any fresh water that could possibly... So (9/35)
unless somehow magically we change the laws of physics and these chemicals goes upward through rock, thousands of feet into water. Again, for me, when I went through, I thought there was going to be dead animals everywhere. We just forgot the name of that movie that came out. It was on HBO. I was like, holy shit, this is crazy. I want to learn more about it and realize, holy shit, this is great. They have 100% success rate of drilling. And they do that, especially in the Permian, because it's been drilled for decades and decades and decades. So they know the roadmap. They almost know exactly where they're going to drill. And they hit almost every time. Drilling down, vertical, horizontally. It's unbelievable technology. And look what happened to the oil industry where the US became the largest oil producer in the world. Unheard of. Not even on a radar, just a few years before that. In 2012, coming back from the Consumer Electronics Show, said, learn everything you can about the (10/35)
internet of things. He said, Chambers from Cisco said, everything can be connected, will be connected. And he was right. Talk about 5G many, many years ago before you saw 50 promotions in our industry on it last, what, three years, two years? Even though 5G is still really not here. It's still not here. I mean, you can look on your phone. Again, I own a phone rescue place. We call it Curzio Rescue. But it's where we fix phones. And again, I'm hands off on that job. It's something that I owned. I had a 30% stake. I wanted to take it over the whole company. But you'll see. Just go to your phone. You're not going to have 5G coverage. There's a few areas. Some major cities. Still not really here. Anyway, everybody talks how great, how much money. But again, talk about 5G a very, very long time ago. How 5G improves everything. Those algorithms, data analytics. Data analytics. I think it was 2011. And I was working at Stansberry at the time. I was talking about Target. How they targeted a (11/35)
young 16-year-old girl. Target was sending this girl, or sending this family, coupons. Just targeted them. And they were about pregnancy. And they just kept sending them, sending them, sending them. Then the dad went over to the manager. Target said, hey, you know what? My daughter's 16 years old. Why the hell are you sending these? And he apologized. And a week later, the manager called the dad back and said, hey, I just want to apologize again. The manager was like, listen, really, really sorry. The dad was like, no, no, no. I should be sorry. Because my daughter is pregnant. Not only did they know she was pregnant, I'm not talking about for her buying pregnancy tests or anything. They knew to the exact day of when she was going to have that baby. That was 2011. That was 4G. That was when algorithms were really, really fast. Think how fast they are now. With 5G, faster internet, how far advanced? That was 2011. I worked for Jim Cramer. When I worked for Cramer, he used to come out (12/35)
with his recommendations. When he came out with his recommendations, we had to send it to all these lists at the same exact time. Within seconds, not even seconds, the alert would hit. Before you could open that alert, the stock would jump 3, 4, 5% immediately. That's how fast algorithms were. That was 2010 when I was working there. You wonder now, you wonder why Facebook's down 14% and then down 20% five minutes later. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. You have the bridge waters, the big guys, Six Sigmas. Then you have 30 other hedge funds, which are a billion here, a billion there, piling on top of this same system. It's like the Degerian Brothers. We're looking for unusual option activity. Now there's 30 newsletters that do the same. It's very easy to just manipulate it so there is some kind of movement where you take the other side, create that liquidity event, and then go the opposite and wreck people. That's why you're seeing these massive movements. I don't get it too technical. (13/35)
This stuff was taking place a long time ago. Again, it's stuff that we were talking about. You look back at different industries, telling you everything you should learn about crypto. Bitcoin, four years ago. When some of you subscribed to my crypto intelligence, what was it, three months ago? Got a lot of subscribers in when Bitcoin was at 50,000 plus and then went up a lot more of its falling hearts since then. We need to take some small positions in those last three or four picks, and into those positions on the way down. Now look where crypto is bouncing back. I have no doubt. Like I said, I don't know where it's going to be in the next few months. I know 100,000 is definitely in the future. Bitcoin is here, but all the innovations are coming out from that. But that's exciting times. If you're a subscriber to crypto intelligence, I'm talking to metaverse companies in the early stages, NFT Royalty companies that I'm meeting with, going to get some serious backing these guys, other (14/35)
security tokens being launched. Everything I have access to, you will have access to. That's the newsletter. Now the next stage is security tokens. I mean, it's huge. It's awesome. It's a great industry. Put my money where my mouth is. We're trading. I'm not saying, this is going to go up. I'm not telling you to do something, which I'm not really doing myself, which is what you see throughout our industry. Everyone tells you, you got to buy it. It's going to go 50X on this date, on this exact date. How many shares you own? Well, I can't own it because I'm writing about it. Then why the hell would you write about it if you think it's going up 50X? Well, you buy it yourself. No, I need subscribers. We have in the world of crazy industry, and that's why I started this company, to change the bullshit out there because it needs to be changed. Getting back to the point here, security tokens is it, guys. Start learning about it. It has nothing to do with our token, but start learning about (15/35)
it. It's a concept that makes sense, checks off all the boxes. It's good for everybody. Of course, respect the issuers and retail investors. The costs are cheaper. It makes sense. It's the reason why so many people are reaching out. Whenever I talk about this story, especially if I'm speaking at an event, the amount of questions I get, like, holy shit, right? Every company is looking to raise money. They're looking to bring awareness to their company. They need money to spend. If they really have that good idea and they're not big enough where they're generating 10, 20, 30 million plus in sales, where you want to go to NASDAQ or something, this is the alternative. And it's awesome. We're a great example of this. If you're looking at security tokens, crypto in general, guys, this is where the next wave of innovation is going to come from, where it's DeFi, NFT security tokens, and Metaverse. That's where all this is coming from. It all flows through crypto. Because if I go to this (16/35)
Consumer Electronics Show every freaking year forever, and I can tell you, there's no new innovations. It's smart homes creating this alliance where all these components can talk now no matter who the manufacturer is. But again, smart homes, it's building these existing trends like AI, how to make AI better, data analytics, the Snowflakes, how do we get better data? How do we make it easier? Because there's so much crappy data. Most of it's crap. How do we take that small percentage, learn from it, and make money off of it and target the right people? But they're all advances off existing trends where crypto and DeFi, all this stuff is brand new. NFT security tokens, why are you getting involved? These industries are massive, hundreds of trillions of dollars, hundreds of trillions of dollars in illiquid assets that could become tokenized. Not all of it, not 50%, maybe not 20%, but just 5% makes it a market that's probably five, 10 exercise of the cancer treatment market, which is (17/35)
enormous. What's the potential here? Start learning about it because this is one of the only ways where you could get in ahead of Wall Street, where SPACs, forget it, they're getting it at a dollar. You think you're getting a bargain at 10 when it goes to 12. Now those things are trading at six and five, you're like, shit, I'm down 50%, these guys own it at a dollar. The IPO process with Robinhood, boy, they sold a great story there. Coinbase, go on and on with some of these crazy IPOs, Rivian. Retail investors could buy them when? When all these guys are getting out for their liquidity event. Crypto's different, security tokens is different. You could buy near the ground floor, you could buy ahead of Wall Street. That's why it's a massive, massive market. It's going to be big. It's going to catch on, it's going to scale, it's going to be liquid, and we're in the very early stages. So look, start learning about it. I have a pretty good track record with stuff like this. It's why I've (18/35)
been doing this for so long, it's why I think a lot of you continue to listen, which I think is crazy, but hey, as long as you listen, I'll keep doing this podcast. With that said, getting out of the crypto market, getting out of our big event, because you're equity owners, listen, the overall market, getting a lot of questions is on shaky ground. There's some are talking six to seven rate hikes, that's what I saw on CBC, six to seven rate hikes, including a 50 basis point hike when the Fed meets next. And I'm not too sure if that's priced into the markets. I'm not sure if a two and a half percent Fed funds rate in 12 months, I don't think it's factored in. 3% in the 10 year, it's basically at 2% right now, I don't think it's factored in. 225, might be factored in, maybe a little higher. 5% plus mortgage rates, not priced in. I have to tell you, those are likely scenarios right now. We have inflation going wild. Look at energy prices, look at wages. They have to raise rates, they have (19/35)
no choice. But doesn't mean you have to sell every single stock, you just need to understand the macro backdrop. And it's not that easy. I mean, you're looking at climate change, for example. And I don't care if you believe in climate change or not, I don't care. This is about your money. So just hear me out before I get all the crazy emails, which I love, frightcarisoresearch.com, fire away. I have thick skin and I kind of like it. Those tend to be the funniest emails. But the fact is there is a massive initiative to curb carbon emissions by corporations, by countries, everywhere. It's resulting in less drilling in the US, it's resulting in a massive increase in energy prices, which we're all feeling, including oil and natural gas. And it's not going to slow any time soon. What's going to slow this trend? EVs? EVs ain't coming out for a while. What are you, crazy? Are you with parts supplies? Just the supply chain issues? No way. And finally, after not saying they had supply chain (20/35)
issues, that says like we do, we're not coming out with any new models this year, which is amazing. And all these other cohesives, I think there's 50 something new EVs supposed at the market. When I say hit the market, I mean not one or two, but hey, I got delivery and we deliver like 20 or 50. I'm talking about seeing them on the road when you're on a highway. You're two years away. You're two years away, at least. There's no way. The supply chains aren't there. Technology isn't even there. It's like Ford's spending $30 billion plus. Why do they have to spend so much on new technology? You don't have it yet? Nope. They just partnered with Rivian, not just invested in them. But how do you play this with rising energy prices? Well, you can purchase oil and gas companies, done okay. Service providers, get the drillers, get the producers, seismic data companies, which is kind of ironic buying them, right? Since we're supposed to make oil companies or the climate change crazies, supposed (21/35)
to make them weaker, less dependent, not stronger. These companies are more stronger than they've ever been. But go further, go beyond that, right? Because that energy trade, wow, it's up and some missed it. Even I missed it in some of the newsletters and stuff. But what else is going to be impacted? Because there's another sector, which is even more ironic, is coal, right? We did everything we can to destroy the entire coal industry. Well, what's used to power electricity? Natural gas? I'm not sure if you saw prices lately, which have doubled in a year, even after the pullback. Pullback's up. The $6, whatever is $4.50. But look at the UK, holy cow. Crisis, crisis, crisis levels in the UK. Before we said electricity generation, the US comes from natural gas. That's followed by nuclear renewables, both the 20% and then coal, which is at 19%. Still 19%. I mean, you look at the global electricity landscape. And hear me out really quick here. This is interesting. So natural gas accounts (22/35)
for 23% of all electricity, global. Renewables at 26%. Again, this is according to the IEA. Nuclear at 10%. You know what coal's at? So natural gas is at 23%, renewables at 26%, nuclear at 10%. Coal's at 38%. 38%?! How crazy is that? Despite China and India and Germany swearing they're significant to lower their coal usage because we must save the planet. Guys, money trumps everything. We even learned that during COVID. Even trumps like the safety of your own children, right? They don't even care about your children with the shit and the statistics we had over a year ago that we couldn't talk about of how coals cause more deaths or the flu caused more deaths than kids with COVID in groups that are 12 years old and under. It doesn't matter. You're still seeing kids wear masks, we're learning about the effects. John Hopkins University said everything, right? So just when you take COVID alone when it comes to politics, you can see how money trumps everything. It even trumps the lives of (23/35)
kids just to get your agenda. Do you really think where coal prices are and where natural gas prices are that electricity companies in China, India, Germany are going to say, oh no, we shouldn't use coal. Are you crazy? Look what coal prices are. They're surging. You want to use something funny. All those companies that were supposed to be put out of business, a couple of them came out of bankruptcy. Of course they changed their name so you probably don't even know them. I looked at some analyst coverage on them. No analysts. None of the big analysts cover them at all. I thought there was something wrong with my computer. I'm like, wait a minute. Then I put in like, you know, just a Dow component. All the research came up. I'm like, wait a minute. Are you kidding? They're not even allowed to cover them. Then you go to these websites, you got to try to find their presentation and you barely can. They're not allowed to talk about their financial. They're not really allowed to talk about (24/35)
anything. Yeah, it is all like buried. I'm looking at this, start studying this, and I'm like, holy cow. Not only coal prices soaring and they're not going to stop, right? Not with the initiatives in place, but this is providing an opportunity to own coal companies, which again, yes, there's still a few around. When I started doing research on these guys, I mean, they can't talk positively about themselves, which is crazy. That's how I hated they are. They can't even like, when's the last time you saw anything positive on coal? Nobody really writes it. You're not allowed. These companies can't do anything. They can't acquire other companies. But you know what? They're generating more cashflow than they have in the history of their companies. When I'm talking about generating more cashflow, they're going to generate, two of them that I looked at, they're going to generate more cashflow in the next 12 months. Hear this out, please, because I've never seen this before in my life. More (25/35)
cashflow in the next 12 months than what their market caps are trading at. Again, I've never seen that in my life. That's how cheap the coal companies are. But these are the types of disconnects you find in a crazy market like this, where the climate change crazies, whose purpose is to save the planet, reduce exposure to fossil fuels, oil, gas, coal. I mean, these industries are actually making these companies, industries much, much stronger than they've ever been. Than they've ever been. I mean, they're more strong today than they were dating back 100 years for some of them. That's how old some of these companies are. It's an oil industry. It defeated the whole purpose. But that's how you have to look at analyzing companies. How do I find the best ideas? That's how you find them. You say, oh, well, I missed oil and maybe natural gas plays, and holy cow, I never thought we'd go to 90 again. Maybe we go to 100, 120, and you feel like you missed it. You don't want to buy it up here. (26/35)
There's other plays that you can look at. Your Curzio Research Advisory subscriber, you're going to learn a lot about the coal industry tomorrow, Wednesday. It's a February issue. It'll also present you with a great opportunity. But guys, make no mistake. This is a crazy freaking market where you have Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple have gone up in tandem for the past 12 years. Past 12 years. Look at the charts. 12 years. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And back and forth, back and forth percentage wise. For the past 12 years, moved up together. Yet in the past week, Facebook lost 25% of its value in a day, while Amazon gained 17% in a day. We're talking about $250 billion plus market cap losses and gains in a day for these stocks. If you want to put that in perspective, just to understand how big of a move that was and how crazy and insane those move were for those two companies, an Amazon stock has been underperforming. So okay, get it with the 17% rise. But Facebook falling that much (27/35)
in a day, losing over $250 billion in market cap, there's only 24 companies in the S&P 500 that have bigger market caps than $250 billion. You would think it's more, but it's not. That's how much they lost in one day. Welcome to the new markets. We're going to see massive volatility, interest rates are going to surge, the Fed is well behind the curve, and it's going to be ugly for a lot, a lot of companies. And it's been ugly, but it's going to get uglier. But not all companies. I can see the difference in technology. It was like, technology's getting there. No, well Amazon's closing in, it's all time high again. Not Amazon, but Apple, then Amazon's starting to run up. Compare that to Facebook and PayPal, wow, what a difference. Seeing separation in healthcare, even biotech now, a lot of those names that got destroyed, some of them coming back, including one of those names in our CRA portfolio, which we bought at a 60% discount to where its high was and it fell, I think 20% now bounced (28/35)
back a ton, but holy cow. Just volatility, craziness. Oil and financial should continue to do well with inflation. Gold, what a day on Monday, great day. And Bitcoin, surging off its lows. You know you get at the bottom at 32, 33 when Peter Schiff says it's going to zero again. I was waiting for that, waiting for that. Everybody is, and then boom, right back to 43, 44. Well above 40 again. I'm poking fun, sorry, I have to poke fun. C-pokes fun at everybody else. But you're looking at a different market with these expensive stocks, these super expensive names, companies without earnings, company weak balance sheets, you're going to have to avoid. These names are going to be out of favor for a while, as long as the Fed is raising rates tightening, which could be well into next year. So position yourself accordingly and hold on tight because inflation, the pounding is down your throat guys, inflation for nine months. It's the one problem that the government can't throw money at to fix. It (29/35)
has to do the opposite. They could throw money during the credit crisis, you could throw money at immigrants, you're China, things go bad, throw money at it, pay off people's debt, whatever. Inflation is the opposite, you have to take money out of the system, which means less leverage. It means borrowing costs go up, and you borrow money to help grow your companies. That cost gone up significantly, which results in much slower returns, which kind of should be expected after we had three years. You know what the returns were for the last three years? So you're looking from 2019 to 2021. We're looking at 28% returns, 2019, 18% returns, and 31% returns on the S&P 500, where an index dating back to the 50s goes up around 8% average, total returns with dividends annually. Those are returns. What do you expect? What did you expect? Well, you saw 2005, six, and seven, or four, five, six, and seven, where home prices, which usually go up one and a half, 2% annually, went up 20% annually for (30/35)
four straight years. What happened? Credit crisis. You're going to get that pullback. When you get too far ahead, that rubber band stretches, you're going to pull back. It happens in both directions. We start in COVID when the market's really, really, really tanked. Yeah, they go down 20%, but 30%, 33%, holy cow, right? You stretch it, and then they bounce back. We need to come back a little bit here. You need to be protective. You need to play defense a little. Not crazy defense, just owning stocks that have good balance sheets, that are cyclical in the right areas, that are going to benefit from a rising inflationary environment, companies with high margins, great business models, good management teams, not a crazy amount of debt with no earnings. It's going to be a difficult market to make money for those of you who are not in the right names, which is asset allocation. Got to be very, very careful in this market. It's going to be a theme that we're going to be talking about for (31/35)
months, and months, and months, as we see this crazy volatility, especially during earnings season, which we still got a ways to go, especially in terms of small caps and a lot of big names, reporting later in the week, tomorrow. Daniel and I are going to break down some of these names in earnings, share some interesting new ideas with you, so definitely stay tuned. Love doing that with Daniel, getting some positive, positive feedback with Daniel. Love having him on. I've been covering my ass for a while since I've been traveling a lot in business. He's doing a great job with the podcast and loves it. But before I go, I wanted to say this. I wanted to say thank you. And of course, for the security token and things like that, but when we're looking at the podcast, which really helped build this company, this is the key, right? Building a podcast, people getting to know you through the podcast, it's more personal, it's not just an email. They know you're a real figure and you know a (32/35)
little bit about what you're talking about and you give a shit. It's a lot better listening to someone than just getting a random email from someone when you have no idea who's writing. When it comes to downloads, we reported a record amount of downloads for Wall Street Unplugged last month. Not sure why. Apparently a lot of you out there like what we're talking about, like we're saying, which is really cool. And those that don't apparently also like to listen, but we really, really killed it last month. Blew out the numbers, blew out expectations, and I just want to say thank you. I really, really appreciate it. Either way, if you like us or you're one of those people that hate us and just have to listen to troll us and send us negative emails, which is okay. Either way, my promise is with this podcast, with Curzio Research, is doing everything I can to help you become better investors. That's the goal. No matter what. That is the goal. Everything that we could do. And we try to do (33/35)
that. We try to get in trends early. We're going to be wrong sometimes. The first thing I do is come here, admit when we're wrong. I wish we took advantage of oil. I was very bearish on the market coming in. I wish I didn't know it was going to come down that much and we saw a couple of portfolio holdings come down longer than we wanted, which is a little frustrating. We had a magnificent performance though in the years before that. But again, we can always do better. We want to do better. I think you learn more from your mistakes. That's why I like bringing them up, even though in our industry, it's like the ultimate no-no. Never bring up your mistakes. It's like politics. No matter what, you're never, ever, ever wrong. Ever. No. We're going to be wrong sometimes. It's going to be right more times if we're wrong. I promise I'll hang the microphone up. I won't do this anymore. And I'll retire, which I could retire if I wanted to. But I really love what I do. I love helping individual (34/35)
investors and I promise that's never going to stop as long as I'm doing this stuff. And I just want to say thank you. Thank you so much for all the support. If you have any questions at all, I'm here for you. Frank, CurzioResearch.com. Feel free to email me anytime. Again, really appreciate all the support. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - How to profit from ridiculous U.S. energy policies.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. What's going on out there? It's Thursday, April 7th. I'm Frank Gurzius, the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. A lot of movement in the markets, especially within oil and then Fed. Those minutes were released. I'm going to bring in Daniel Creech, senior research analyst at Curzio Research. Is that the name of this place? Curzio Research? I forget sometimes. What's going on? That's the sign we have on the door that I constantly say to take down. Not because I'm not proud to work here, but we're the Goldman Sachs. Not because we have anything to hide, but just so we should lay low, Frank. Lay low. Low is better sometimes, I know. I like that. Laying low is better than having some expectations. Because we share a (1/35)
parking lot with a couple other different businesses and I have no idea what their work schedule is, but it is not consistent. There's some days you can't get a parking spot and some days we are literally doing it once a year. I don't know what's going on. It's hilarious. It's ironic as hell. There's a business that sells weed or medical marijuana. I think it sells licenses. I don't think it sells weed. Is it a license? All I know is that the people that walk in there? Well it doubles as a rehab center too. Oh, does it? You see a lot of people limping in there and you kind of think, are they hurt and going in there? Or injuries and things. Yeah, it's nice. It's all kinds of stuff. My overall point to that was I can't imagine what people think about us because sometimes we're dressed well, sometimes we're dressed like we work out, sometimes we're carrying golf clubs, there's dogs, there's animals. I mean, it's hilarious. So people probably look at this sign and go, is that business? (2/35)
It's hella scary research. And if we actually research it and it's funny. Send us an email. What do you think we do here? Yeah, what do you think we do here? Let alone the people we share this wall with. Can you imagine what these builders think of us? Oh yeah, there's a custom home builder next to us too. So yeah, I guess place. But this, yeah, I mean, we've been here for a while now, I don't know, probably three or four years and it's just, yeah, we see businesses come and go. But it's nice. It's nice and it's quiet. I work late days, sometimes you're late, but I'm really late. And I like it because I come here, it's lit up, nobody's here, nobody bothers me. And yeah, it's just a nice isolated spot. And we don't have like a storefront, right, where people walk in off the street. Right, which is not, yeah. So taping, which is really cool. But yeah, it is definitely interesting. Anyway, got into a lot further than I think that I thought we were. Yeah. Yeah. So let's talk about what's (3/35)
going on on the Hill with the, you know, the US House of Representatives, Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight Investigations, while they held a hearing to grill, basically grill the oil companies while gasoline prices remain elevated, even though price for crude oil, the feedstock of fuels have dropped off of their highs from 130, say 100. But you know, they're ripping the oil companies apart because it's their fault oil prices are so high. And you've really been following this closely. I want to get your thoughts on this first. Yeah. I have to admit something here. I absolutely love these hearings because there's a little bit of something in here for everybody. Now I must set this up. The reason I love this, because I can handle this. And Frank, you know my heart, you know me better than most. It's not my desire to come across as cocky or arrogant. In fact, I try to not, I would almost try to come across the other way on that. However, on this topic, I can have full (4/35)
confidence because I am the perfect person to break this down because I am the guy that can handle this with laughter and not take it too seriously. Because if you watch this, only applying common sense rationale and try to go in here thinking that the people in power are trying to do what's right for everybody else, you would go insane and you won't be able to handle it. You'll go crazy. So I would recommend for the normal folks out there, a two to three drink alcoholic beverage minimum before you start diving into this stuff. That's my public safety disclosure. Why is that? Because they're idiots. And if you don't have- Give us an example. All right. First of all, the title of it is this hearing before the subcommittee and oversight investigation committee on energy and commerce, US House of Representatives is titled gouged at the gas station, big oil and Americans pain at the pump. That's great. All right. Now I will kick things off because the people that were up there from Dev on (5/35)
Energy, Shell, I don't know if you have the list, ExxonMobil, I know I'm missing a couple. There was a gentleman not in the oil and gas business more like a, he was a retired, I'll pull it up here in a minute. I don't want to give him, because he had some great points. He wasn't as part of the oil and gas. He was just trying to explain in data and detail on why we should be doing more US production versus relying on global partners, whether they be allies or not. But the people that were brought up here, and we've talked about these companies, we've been huge on Dev on, we've been huge on Exxon, which is in a dollar stock club. We've talked about pioneer natural resources. And that's who I'm going to start with here today because the opening statements, these guys knew what they were going into and there was one woman from Shell or something. But anyway, these guys know they're going into an arena where they're not welcome. This was totally split on party lines. If you were watching (6/35)
this, basically every Democrat that got a microphone in their five minutes, that's the other thing. These geniuses up on Capitol Hill, and these are both sides, Frank, they think that, hey, we're going to recognize you for five minutes and then you can get to grandstand and do all that. It was basically split on if you were a Democrat, you were bad mouthing them and blaming them for gouging, making near record profits, if not record profits, pulling at the emotional heartstrings of people. And then if you were a Republican, you were stating the administration's policies. And when President Joe Biden was a candidate and the specific quotes he said about ruining oil and gas and things like that, they were pointing to, hey, higher gas prices were before the invasion of Russia, involving or invading Ukraine and its policies, not just the initial spike of that. So the CEOs and representatives knew they were going into it, Frank. And I want to tell you this, this is why in the theme of (7/35)
jeopardy, like I did on Tuesday, we're going to give the answer as to why people need to give a fly in Florida about this. That's not my new thing while you're going flying in Florida. It keeps me out of the beef. I like you getting emotional. I'm telling you, I love this. So the Pioneer Natural Resources, this is a good quote, Frank, on the answer as to why you should pay attention and just the takeaway here is to own and have exposure to oil and gas and hard assets. Impressive drilling, low returns and volatile commodity prices combined with pressures to divest fossil fuel holdings cause many investors to reduce or eliminate their equity holdings in energy companies over the past decade. The energy, the industry, energy industry fell from representing, Frank, 12% of the combined market value of the S&P 500 companies in 2011 to less than 4% today. The reason that I have that circled on my notes in this printout and the reason you should pay attention out there is that that proves that (8/35)
the energy sector is basically left for dead from an asset allocating sector. It has gone to a such small percentage of the overall S&P 500, it is not a far stretch, in my opinion, to think that that will go higher, not continue lower from the 4% weighting or making up of the S&P 500. That means prices can go and continue to go much higher from here so investors need to take hold and invest in those companies in that sector to benefit. Would you like me to, Paul, would you like to join me on this, my little friend? I don't want you to keep going. I think it's entertaining as hell because I got some things to say too. I just think it's hilarious. I mean, guy, keep going. I'll go to my points in a second. Go ahead. Next topic here, the overall takeaway was the CEOs knew and they're politicians as well. They were smart in saying, hey, but the overall takeaway for individual investors is listen, you need to be exposed and invested in these areas and you need to understand the macro. When (9/35)
you go to vote, and I don't care how you vote, that shocks a lot of people. I really don't care. I wish you knew what you were voting for as long as you can explain why. I can agree or disagree. But at least know the reason behind things. And the big takeaway here is oil and gas are going to continue to be elevated because of policies and the major theme that disgusts me, Frank, is that one side of the aisle looks at this and says, hey, Frank, I can't wait till this massive transcript comes out because I want to search for the word patriotic. You've never heard more from one side of the argument say it's patriotic only to pay more to protect others in the high price of the pump. There is a huge headwind on investors in general on capitalism because over and over again these oil executives were drilled about share buybacks and dividends they pay to investors. The powers that be were telling them how to run their business. They have no idea how anything works. One representative called (10/35)
out a CEO and said, hey, if we do away with the federal gas tax, which is roughly 18 cents, will you pass that onto your customers? The gentleman pointed out, well, we collect that on behalf of the federal government and we give it to the federal government. If you give a tax holiday, we would quit collecting that tax in general. She then pressed, well, you would pass that onto your customers. He then had to explain, hey, let me try to be more clear. If you don't tax it, we won't even collect it. Therefore, they would say. The people making the rules are at least grandstanding here with billboards and different funny signs. A couple of the liberals had good signs, Frank, about the record profits that Exxon and Chevron and everybody had. A couple of Republicans had the stickers of Joe Biden pointing to me doing that and gas prices going high. There is a little bit of something for everybody. The takeaway here is you have a, capitalism is under attack. That ought to worry every investor, (11/35)
but it will result in higher asset prices. So benefit from it. Don't get punished by it. Frank Curzio I mean, for me personally, I love this. I love this stuff. It is entertaining as hell. I mean, they should call this like the politicians pretend to care about a constituents hearing. That's what they should be, right? Because they don't give a shit about us. We all know that. We all really know that. I mean, they're just going on and, you know, won't even go, I'll go over that in a second of the causes of higher oil prices, which is pretty obvious, but you're looking at the amount of money that we pay in taxes on this. It's like close to 30% when it comes to all the taxes. And a lot of that is like a low carbon tax and you offer programs and a greenhouse gas program, which is like 15, 20 cents again, underground tank storage, right? Fine. I get it. That's only 2 cents, but the federal excise tax is 18 cents per gallon. Yet the low carbon gas programs, that fee is 22 cents per gallon. (12/35)
That's going, that's taxpayers are paying all that stuff, right? So these guys would be yelling at the oil companies like it's their fault. It is a joke to me. I mean, look, you know, they're for pride, but they won't yell at Pfizer or anything. They won't yell at Pfizer that's pushing booster. By the way, for all the vaccines you've ever taken before COVID, how many booster shots did you need for those vaccines? Could someone answer that for me? Any doctors out there? Because now we're, and you see Pfizer commercial booster, but it's all about profits, profits, profits. You pulled a rug out from these oil companies, said you got to pay for carbon. You got to do all this. Then you said, okay, you can't drill. We're not going to let you drill as much. And the federal permit thing, it's funny because when you're looking at federal permits, it's the back and forth, right? So I don't care what political party you're on, right? I say that a lot, but when you're looking at the thousands, (13/35)
right? They're sitting on thousands of these federal permits, thousands of them. So when you're looking at 2,200 leases in court right now, that's what Western Energy Alliance is defending, 2,200 of those leases. And they're defending the companies, which is dozens, if not over a hundred oil companies that own those leases on the federal land, which cannot be developed while these cases are ongoing, right? And the reason why they're ongoing is because when you're on federal land, it's different guys. When you're on federal land, those permits are subject to environmental studies right off the bat. We all know how crazy that could become, right? You just have a guy with a grudge, hate this, hate whatever side, and I'm going to put up in court and make a big stink about it and protest. So it's a crazy process. Also they're subject to lawsuits by just about anyone, neighbors, municipalities, state, country government. So it's extremely difficult to drill on these. So while you have one (14/35)
party saying, well, we have 9,000 permits, what are you talking about? You can't drill. Okay. And again, depending on your politics, you may agree or disagree with what I just said, even though all those things are facts. And I get it because people are religious about politics. Ask yourself this, because if you have any common sense, any, ask yourself this. All companies are sitting on thousands of these federal permits. All prices have surged over a hundred dollars a barrel, which is whatever, four or five year highs, where the company's profit margins are absolutely massive here. So why the fuck are they not drilling on these permits on federal land? Why? Why wouldn't they be drilling on these if they were open? As an oil company, unless you hate profits, unless you hate money, they're doing everything they can to drill on these, but that won't happen. But the politicians will blame whoever they want to blame. You don't want to blame revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. (15/35)
Pretty big deal, right? Would have imported crude from Canada, which lowers our prices here. Or just so happens, I'm a believer. If you're a president, whatever happens with Bush, September 11th, if you're in office, it's your fault. Don't blame, oh, there's a party before me and a party before him and there's a party, because everybody plays a blame game. No one in politics wants to admit that, oh, this is me, my fault. Let me prove it, which I think will do wonders actually to actually just go on TV and say, hey, something is my fault and this is what we need to do to make it better. Right? Because that's normal. That's what we all go through. We all have ups and downs. That'll never happen. But when you're looking at Russia, which was the key to this with energy prices surging and we're leveraged to the world markets, guys, not just the US, we're leveraged to the world markets. This happened on the Biden's watch. So you could yell all you want and have these hearings or whatever. (16/35)
Again, there's an easy solution. Let the oil companies drill like crazy. We have the technology, open up these federal permits. They're in court. It's very difficult to drill on these, even from the context that I hear from. Make it as easy as possible. Become a major exporter. And we take a lot of those profits and we throw them towards alternative energy. It's a simple solution, but it'll never fucking happen. We all know that because the politicians are involved and they're going to pretend that they're there to represent the constituents and say, oh, well, the prices are higher. Oil companies fall in point because all the idiots don't want to do the research and actually look what's going on. That's why I think this is hilarious. When I see these politicians, you really understand what they don't know. And they know everything about the law because they love that. That's it. Right? They make the laws and most of them are lawyers. Things like this and just the economy, the stock (17/35)
market, when it comes to finance and the fact that they're so uneducated when it comes to this, most of these politicians, it's funny. It's very entertaining to watch this. And that's, again, I'm bashing everyone on both sides, but that's how I feel. Yeah. It's the reality is it affects everybody. This is why you pay attention to things like this. To your point on the drilling leases, President and CEO Rick Munkrie for CREF, I'm not sure, Dev on Energy, explained that permits like an APD or application for permit to drill, under normal circumstances, you basically try to get from ADP to drilling in five to six weeks. Fast forward, that's taking around six months now. So from five to six weeks to six months is a big deal. The other thing here to take away is that the only good thing about volatility and chaos, Frank, is that it speeds up the line of communication. So as parties, in this case, the party in power coming up to an election, they're going to have to get much more blunt and (18/35)
quit beating around the bush because they're running out of time to get their message across. You can get the sense of here, and I hope people watch this and can give us some feedback, Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, because there's a group of people out there, and I totally disagree, but I'm okay with them explaining this. There's a group of people out there that think, hey, the world is coming to an end if we don't get off oil and gas, and to everybody that's being hurt because of higher prices, that's just part of doing business. That's the cost of doing business, and the bigger issue, the bigger goal is better than you. That's where the patriotic left, ironically, came to the hearing today. They were talking about you oil companies ought to be patriotic and quit taking so much profits. Forget about the dividends and shareholders and big shareholders and the retirements and the pension plans and all that to have it. So you have to be very shallow when you're discussing this. You only (19/35)
want to grab onto one thing and keep on and take the ball and run with it. We can have fun with this. Like I said, you got to take this with laughter because if you don't learn to laugh about this, you will absolutely go insane and it'll drive you nuts. So I'm going to create a watch list of just these couple of companies on there. We're going to track their performance from here, Frank. It should be a fun whirlwind show, but please use any pullbacks to have exposure into this sector going forward. One last thing here too, because they're trying to say which price... You're looking at oil prices have come down. They have come down off their highs, 130, a little bit below 100 now. So wire prices coming down at the pump, and they haven't really come down at the pump, at least by me. I can't speak for every single state, but I'm pretty sure across the board, we haven't really seen them come down. So they're grilling BP, Chevron, Shell, and these guys are like, look, no one person dictates (20/35)
the price. It's a market. So in the market, these are the people who own the retail stations, whatever it's Circle K, if it's 7-Eleven, these are the people that dictate that. So those are the people, if you're really concerned about why that's not happening now, why they're not going lower, or why they're pushing lower, those are the people you need to grill because those are the people who really could set the prices every place. And that's what you see in all the gas stations. So Exxon, Shell kind of got out of that business a while ago. That's what you really have to focus on, so retailers, because I'm seeing it even here where we have lots of gas stations, and there's like a 20 cent difference, 25 cent difference in some of these areas, which is maybe two, three miles from my house compared to here. How's that possible? The same truck is coming to deliver, right? So it's not like, yeah, they should all be the same within your area, within a couple of miles, and they're not. That's (21/35)
a big difference between 20, 25 cents, but that maybe just you're grilling the wrong people here. It's great to grill these guys. I get it. I understand it. Politics, grandstanding, I get it, but it is kind of funny. It is kind of a waste of time because when you look yourself in the mirror, the reason why oil prices are really high has to do with a lot of politicians and less with these oil companies right now. Yeah, absolutely. But hey, it's been through boom and bust. They lost a lot of money overall, aggregately, during periods. Listen, and I'm not just defending these oil companies blindly. I'm not saying that they haven't made mistakes. They haven't done stupid things. That's not the takeaway here, so don't go there with me. I'm simply saying there's a lot of wiggle room here and I love the yes, no questions from both sides of the aisle. Like I said, these things are just, these are good theater. It's just unfortunate that it has such a drastic impact on our lives. Yeah. And (22/35)
you're looking at oil companies across the board, Pioneer being in this conversation is great to show you how big Pioneer is coming, which is one of the largest shell companies. Wow. They're amazing. You look at Devon Energy, which has been a fair fraud, you recommend Exxon on this site plenty of times. I mean, this specialty place as well, in smaller plays. How funny is it if you're Enron, sorry to interrupt, if you're Exxon, excuse me, not Enron. Enron. Close. If you're Exxon, you get these new board members, the Greenies, because BlackRock's throwing their weight around. You start putting out every comment you can make about environmental, social, and governments to please everybody, and what happens? You still get dragged in front of the House Committee and you're still yelled at. There's nothing you can do. Proving you can't win. So quit bending to the thumb of these people. You can't win. Just do what's right for the overall average American, please. That's my plea to these oil (23/35)
executives. Big oil and big tobacco got thrown around in yesterday's hearing. That was hilarious. It's just all about pitting those against one versus the other. So it's stock, it's shareholders versus the little guy. Why isn't the takeaway here to everybody buy stocks? It should be. That's what I'm saying. How do you participate in the capitalist system? People get pissed off at banks. They do great in the inflationary environment. Buy the stock. Take the money out of, not all your money out of savings, but why not have, if you buy the stock, you're getting an interest rate and you're letting inflation, now you're playing the inflation trend instead of it working against you by just keeping your money at these banks, which they're charging you fees at, leaving the cash. Another thing you brought up, and I think we're going to have to, because this is going more than expected, I want to really get into the Fed balance sheet. I'll do that tomorrow, frankly speaking, for you guys, all (24/35)
you guys that are subscribers and paid subscribers. Frankly speaking, that goes directly to emails on iTunes, but I'll break that down because that's moving the markets right now at the Fed minutes. You brought up the cigarette companies, and that's personal to me. My dad died of lung cancer. He maybe tried to quit for so many years, he just couldn't quit, and that was part of it. Guys, it's all about money. It's that simple. We know that cigarettes cause cancer. We know that if you smoke, lots of bad things could happen to you. We know all the facts. We know all the figures. Why are we still selling cigarettes? Because they make a shitload of money off the taxes. That's why they won't remove it completely. They're able to fine these companies tremendously, and they just generate that revenue. If it really was like, hey, you know what? We're going to put our foot down, and they crush the industry as it is, but hey, no smoking because it kills you. It causes cancer. We know it or (25/35)
whatever. Again, I hate the fact that the government dictates anything that you should do because I believe in free society, but the reason why they don't go totally to that side is the amount of money that they're making, and they're making a fortune off of cigarettes. It's the same thing with oil. They're making a fortune off of this. They'll go up there and argue and yell, just like the example you gave with the guy arguing, hey, if we get rid of the tax and stuff like that. To me, it's just funny, and the more you look into it, the more pissed off you get, and I think that's the point of all this shit because you can't be in the middle. In today's society, in a woke society, which is basically a terrorist organization being woke. It really is. They force shit into shit. It almost makes you that, hey, I support the gay community, transgender community, but I don't support a guy who's swimming in an event that's crushing women, that it's cheating, but if you say that you don't (26/35)
support that, all of a sudden you're lumped into like, oh my God. Like, don't say gay bill. It has nothing to do with not saying gay. It has to do with teachers. It has to do with our teachers not teaching third graders and second graders about our genitals. That's what that bill is. Don't say gay from it. It's all political. It's hilarious. I thought that bill was trying to encourage people not to have children. Holy shit. I mean, that's what the bill is. Wait a minute. The parents are there, right? Yeah, parents. I don't want to stress. Teachers are stranger. You don't know who a teacher is. Yeah. Some of them, oh, I know my teacher. No. Some people do. Most people don't know their teachers. I don't know anything that my teacher does outside teaching my kids. I don't know what hobbies are. I don't know. She's crazy. I don't know what club she's going to. I have no idea. Do I want them teaching my eighth grade? Not my eighth grade. I want them teaching my eight year old, seven year (27/35)
old kid about their genitals and about gender. Are you crazy? That's what that's what the funny thing is. That's what Disney is going all in on. And they are the biggest family organization that makes the most. And that's what they're fighting with. There's no case. Don't say gay bill. That's what it's about. And for me as a parent, I'm looking at this going, holy shit, no way. Don't go near near that young with those. Can you want your teachers? You're forcing your teachers to do that. So for me, when I look at the politics, it's designed to make you so pissed off that you have to choose sides. And sometimes we all fall into that trap. But instead of choosing sides right there, what you and I always say is choose the way you're going to make money on it for you and your family. Pfizer is it. Listen, they gave Pfizer the green light booster shots for everyone. Let's go. But what was the percentage? What the hell was the percentage for the kids? I mean, the kids don't even need this. We (28/35)
know. We know. The percentage down tremendously in terms. And they're like, oh, make sure you give your kids the vaccine and a booster. What are you talking about? So it's all about money. We've seen it with COVID. Now we're seeing so many things come to light. But when we really look at the politicians and what side they're going to take, how do you make money off it? Because it's really not that difficult and a lot of people don't look at it that way. And it's easy to make money that way. Just like we said, the banks, just like we're saying with oil companies, oil prices are probably going to continue to go higher and higher even though they're bitching about it. How do you make money off of this, off of what the Fed's doing, whether you agree, whatever side you are. At the end of the day, if you push politics aside, which is so hard to do in today's environment because it's always in your fucking face every second with social media and everything that you do, you can make a lot of (29/35)
money in this market. And the most important thing is you and your family. That's the most important thing. That was the most important thing in my life. Taking my daughter to the Kansas game last week. That was the most important thing in my life. Everything got put on hold. I'm like, this is an experience. I want her to go. It's going to be fantastic. That's how everyone should live. Not all the time. Don't be irresponsible. Don't leave. But that's what we do this for. If you put all that shit aside, you can really make a lot of money. And Daniel, you and I have been providing lots of free ideas on this and even on our paid newsletters. And yeah, there are lots of ways to play this instead of just going up to the rooftops and shouting. Yeah, by the people that were dragged in front of the hearings today. Yeah, why? Why is this whole event taking place? Why is it taking up time at CNBC? Why? Nothing's going to happen. The other thing on that is, remember ocean engineering, the (30/35)
offshore kind of robotics, underwater, deep drilling things. That's an interesting sector. I haven't seen that too much. I know a couple of ... I'm surprised they haven't gone up more. The rigs, Transocean. I think there's something to that to at least keep an eye on now and hopefully that'll make its way into a recommendation because I don't, again, I don't want to assume that that's just going to happen, but just following everything the way the path leads, I do think that the path of least resistance is for them to catch a bid and get some momentum behind them at some point in the future as long as prices continue to stay elevated, which everything we're seeing right now leads to that. It's so surprising too because if you look at 2019, and I have a chart up here guys, of Transocean rig, this is coming to a file for a very, very long time on the biggest deep water ocean drillers and you look at their stock price. I mean, it was $13 in 2018 and it was, right before COVID it was $7. (31/35)
It's $4.30. That's impossible. Yeah. I mean, how is that ... Probably a ton more shares outstanding and all that stuff too to stay afloat. I mean, it's not Apple's Apple's comparison. I just want to see where Exxon is. Look at how much Exxon. Exxon is flat over that time. The stock's still down tremendously. This is we're looking at a five-year chart, Exxon's actually up 1%. This stock's down 65% where oil prices are the highest they've been for five ... I don't get it. I got to look at the balance sheet and then it's probably horrible and that's why. If you're looking for oil, that's a good place to start searching because that's one of the areas within oil that haven't really taken off. Some of them are off their lows, but have taken off like a lot of these other names have. Just trying to generate ideas for people out there to do their own. If you would, I hate doing this, Daniel at CurzioResearch.com, it would be an interesting poll. Do you blame oil companies for the high price of (32/35)
gas or do you blame politics or do you blame Putin? That's easy. Three choices. One, two, three. Okay. Frank, CurzioResearch.com said it to both of us. I'm curious to hear too. I want to hear your thoughts on it. Yeah, I would like to know. If you blame oil companies, I'm not going to call you an idiot or stupid. I disagree, but please send it. Yeah. Who do you blame? Listen, they're for-profit organizations that make profits in these areas and maybe there's a little bit they could do, but you can't just oil prices are higher based on a lot of these policies that have come out and then you have a war thrown on top of that regardless. If it was Republican or Democrat, whatever is in office, that's taken place, which has a lot to do with this. Just to jump all over these guys and have a hearing and take up this, when nothing really is going to get done, it's just, hey, it is what it is. I'm going to see that poll and we'll report back to you on that. Daniel, listen, thanks so much for (33/35)
joining me on Thursday. I know Wednesday is your day, but that's awesome. I really, really appreciate it, buddy. I know you'll come back pretty soon. Absolutely. See you guys next week. Cheers. All right, guys. That's it for me. Again, frankly speaking, I'm going to break down everything on the Fed. The Fed minutes should be no surprise. Just a quick preview that's going to be for our subscribers is that the wishful thinking of the Fed being dovish is hilarious because they have no choice at all to be hawkish at this stage. We're seeing it from every single government. That's why you're seeing all the minutes that come out. Everything is going to be, hey, we have to reduce the balance sheet, which I'll break down. What was it? 9 trillion. Now they're saying they're going to shrink it by 95 billion a month or something like that. I'll break down the figures for you guys. Again, that's going to be for, frankly speaking. That's not an I2. It just goes to our paid subscribers. What (34/35)
newsletter you subscribe to, even their cheapest, which is $4 or $5 a month, I believe, for Dollar Stock Club or for the largest ones, which are thousands of dollars, which you get premium services and stuff like that, you get access to that podcast, frankly speaking. For you, you'll see me tomorrow. For everyone else, I will see you next week. Keep those questions coming. Frank at CurzioResearch.com. Have a great weekend. Take care. Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - 2022 forecasts call for huge volatility… Here's how to play it.
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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media, to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Mainstream. How's it going out there? It's December 14th. I'm Frank Gursio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. So as we approach year-end, like always, the largest research firms, which the Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan's, Morgan Stanley's, they provide a 2022 forecast. And I want to go over these forecasts with you since I know many of you might not have access to the data. Maybe you'll hear a data point on CNBC or be able to read it, but having access to these reports and seeing where they're coming from, I wanted to go over a lot of this stuff with you. And the reason is you need to pay close attention to what the sell-side analysts, these are called sell-side analysts, are saying about the economy, (1/35)
different sectors and stocks, because that's usually the status quo. So if you can prove through your research that these forecasts are going to be wrong, and I'm talking about to the upside or the downside, that's how you make huge returns. Because by doing that, it means this data, right, if your research is correct, it's not being priced into the market. So a good example of that was say in February 2020, when I was reading the research channels, this is why I became more and more bearish, because I felt like people weren't seeing what I was seeing and what I was hearing through amazing contacts and interviewing people in China and Italy. And again, this is before the markets crashed, right, because they were close to COVID. So everyone thought it was going to be quick downside followed by strong rebound. And when I say quick downside, it was Goldman and Morgan Stanley predicting a quarter, one quarter of weakness, they were comparing it to other past pandemics. And this turned out (2/35)
to be much, much longer than expected, right, over four quarters, five quarters. We're still dealing with some of that stuff now where we still wear masks and it's impacting the economy in certain areas, especially in New York and California and also international travel. I mean, this is still going on now, COVID, right? They said it was going to be like one quarter and we're going to be fine. For me, I thought differently since China actually closed its economy. Apple, Levi's, you're looking at all these major brands were closing in China. And this happened like the first week in February, two, three weeks before the market really started to crash. China accounts for 40% of the world's growth. We're trading at crazy, crazy valuation, very expensive valuations, which is fine. However, if you notice right before that point, that last quarter going in, GDP was slowing. It was under 2%. So we're seeing a slowdown with premium prices. Now you're taking away the growth component, the growth (3/35)
component of the world, out of the equation. They're closing their entire economy. So for me, I thought it was inevitable stocks fall much more than, I mean, that quick pullback. Some of them were saying, hey, we could see a 5%, 7% pullback. That's what they were predicting in the pandemic. And it turned out to be 30%, which is a little bit more than I expected. I thought we were going to get nailed, but not that quick at 30%. Now, why did it fall that much? Because all the major institutions, they were on the wrong side of this trade. They were forced to adjust and sell positions while these positions were pushing lower. Think of like a short squeeze or something. If stocks going higher and higher, people are like, oh, we got to get out, we got to get out before it goes high, because they're short. So that's what a short squeeze is. That's GameStop, AMC, and all these things. But when you could look at these sell-side forecasts or any forecasts, right, if everyone's completely bullish (4/35)
on a stock, that means sentiment is very, very high. That's what we saw with what? We saw that with Palantar, we saw that with DocuSign. DocuSign fell 40% in one day, tens of billions in market cap wiped out. So if you're doing your research and saying, wow, these guys who are all involved in this stock are wrong, either upside or downside, that's how you make the greatest returns. So I want you to pay close attention to these forecasts. They're very important, because if you could find a hole in their research, you could make very, very strong, exceptional gains. So starting with Piper Jaffray just came out. They said they surveyed 91 chief investment officers across multiple verticals, primarily within North America. And this is all technology. And they said, overall, 2022, the IT budgets are anticipated to be up over 5% year over year. That's a major, major increase, because they went up 5.4% in 2021, coming off of numbers that people were worried about from 2020 and COVID. So (5/35)
despite the uncertainties, despite inflation, you're looking at the biggest technology companies in the world are still spending and plan to increase their budgets on IT, which is interesting. You look at Stifle. So they say three potential correction catalysts, and these guys have the biggest downside number in the SP 500. So you say three potential correction catalysts. So they say cyclicals versus defensives and equities are extended. So basically they're saying money is rotating into the defensive sector of stocks. They also say the slowing global money growth, especially as the dollar rises and tightens liquidity. And also they're talking about China, because China, the past tightening, despite easing now after the era grade, weakens global growth. So they're predicting the SP 500 would be in the low 4,000s by Q1 2022. I mean, Q1, that's a couple of weeks away, starting a couple of weeks away. And that's 10% downside from the current levels. It's a pretty big number. Goldman Sachs (6/35)
says risk of recession appear low, continue to recommend high growth and high margin stocks. They say as high margins are a signal of quality indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their lower margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions. So they see the SP 500 going to 5,120 in 2022. That's about 10% upside. Just give you a little bonus here. Some of the stocks they like, what they're talking about, the high margin stocks, Mastercard MP materials, that's MP is a symbol, United Therapeutics, Universal Display, Nvidia, Marvel Technology, Autodesk, notice how many technology companies are on this list. These are usually high margin companies. Alphabet, Meta, Insight, Booking Holdings, Palantir, these are some of the names that they like high margin companies going into next year, because look, those are the companies that are going to have pricing power. JP Morgan, 2022, the year of a full global recovery and ends the global pandemic (7/35)
and return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. Their price target is 50-50, all right, 5,050. So we're looking at about 9% upside, pretty close to Goldman. So one of the things they do say is they say international equities, emerging markets, and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform and deliver two to three times higher returns in the US markets. That's a pretty bold statement. That's interesting. And then you have Morgan Stanley saying the surge in global inflation has investors fretting about future growth, but their economists say prices, those surges, that inflation is going to subside, making the way for 4.7 GDP growth in 2022. Its price target on SP 500 is 4,400, so we're looking about 5% downside. So let's throw all this, right? These are the expectations going into 2022. So let's put all this together and I'll break it down, show you what it means. If you take the highest and lowest forecast, you're looking at 10% upside, 10% downside. (8/35)
I'm going to say from someone who's been doing this for a very long time, that's one of the widest margins you'll ever see going into predictions next year from major firms. You might have a boutique firm that says, we're going to crash 30% or whatever, it doesn't matter. But in some firms, you see 3%, 4% returns and maybe 7% returns. I mean, outside of COVID, because we saw a massive decline followed by all this money printing and stimulus, and so those returns are high. But usually going back historically, 4%, 5% returns, maybe 8% returns and maybe 2%, 3% to the day. You don't see that big of a margin. It's very, very wide margin. And what does that tell you? It tells you how much uncertainty we have in the markets right now and what we're going to see in 2022. So when I look at that data and I go over my forecast, this is my forecast. I think we're going to see at least two to three separate 20% pullbacks. And this is going through 2022. I think investors are going to try to buy the (9/35)
dip, like they've been doing for five years plus, like buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. But it's a different market now. And when you have low interest rates, you have the Fed there to pick you up and everything's going to be okay and just throw money at everything and hand checks to everybody. Listen, buy the dip makes sense. It makes sense that a lot of these companies have premium valuations. It makes sense of how much liquidity is coming into the market, where we saw a record amount of deals flow, a record amount of assets trading at record highs. It makes sense for those conditions. However, in 2022, we're going to see a fundamental shift. I say a fundamental shift because that's what we saw in 2020. It was a fundamental change in the marketplace. In other words, I'm not saying that the market's going to fall because they're expensive. You could say that for the last five years on a historical basis. Again, people weren't factoring in low interest rates and the Fed and fiscal policy just (10/35)
throwing money at everything. So, you deserve stocks to be trading higher than the normal, which is probably 17 times forward earnings over the past 10 years. And we were trading at 2021 times forward earnings. But the fundamental shift we're looking at in 2022, it's a different landscape. It's a different animal. So, you're looking at the Fed that's going to begin raising rates. My forecast, at least four times. At least four times next year. They have to start. I mean, you saw Powell. You're going to see him Wednesday. He's going to talk about it. I mean, you're going to see a tapering much, much faster than expected. You have to. I don't know if you saw inflation numbers. You look at me, the CPI, I'll cover that in a minute, and the PPI just came out today. But the Fed's going to stop buying bonds completely in a few months, right? Why? Because it's been brought on by massive, massive inflation it needs to control. So, you have the CPI up 7% year over year, which is a 39 year high, (11/35)
and producer price just came out today showing a near 10% increase in prices. We've never seen that in history, right? And I read that through several headlines, so you can double check that. But even if it's not, it's one of the highest ratings that we've ever seen on producer prices. That's how much these prices have gone up. But comparing inflation, the CPI, to the 80s, right? Because that's where really a 70s and 80s, which is the 39 year comparison, it's misleading. Because the index is calculated totally differently now. In fact, over the past 30 years, the government has changed the way it calculates inflation, and that's the CPI, more than 20 times. Why do you think they're doing this? They're not doing this because we want to make it more accurate. No, absolutely not. You really believe that? They want to make it more... No. They want to show mild inflation since inflation is by far the biggest risk to the market. It's the one thing the Fed can't control by throwing money at (12/35)
it. You have to remove money from the system. You have to deleverage. But in the 70s and 80s, the CPI included housing prices. But now we use a non-market rent for owners housing costs. That's what it is. Non-market rent for owners, that's the housing cost. Also today, the government makes the assumption that consumer spending habits change as economic conditions change, including rising prices. So prices rise and consumers decide to substitute that product, whatever. Say, I'm not buying a Snickers because Snickers are $3 now. And they were $1.50, just saying. I'm going to buy M&Ms now. It takes Snickers off the list as its basket of goods it covers. Think about that for a minute. This way it's not going to report those higher prices for that product. So I'm not sure how you measure inflation then. But if you're looking at Apple's to Apple's comparison, or the way we calculated inflation in the 80s, and if you compare that to today, inflation, the CPI, is at higher levels than it was (13/35)
back then. Much, much higher levels. We're at 7%. You want proof? I mean, it's not too difficult to find it. I mean, you could find it almost any place. But if you're looking at a basket of goods and how much these things have gone up, just look at used cars. You could look at what you're up 30%. You have beef, which is up 24%. You have gasoline up 51%. You have rental vehicles up 40%. Furniture up 12%. Bacon up 20%. Gasoline, again, up 50%. These are the numbers that you're seeing. These are the numbers that I'm seeing. These are the numbers that, for some reason, the Fed's not seeing. But for you to say that consumer prices are up only 7% is absolutely insane. You're basically the Fed's call us a bunch of idiots. But they do this because that's the new way they calculate CPI. And it's not really that new, but that's how they change it over the years. But going into next year, where I'm going with all this, you need to be concerned. We had strong returns in the market for three (14/35)
straight years. I mean, 31%, 18%. What are we up now in the S&P 500? 24%? Something around there, 25%. The market usually goes up 8% annually every year. And I get it, why it went up so much. And those are the reasons why we were bullish for so long. But now, with this fundamental shift that changes in the marketplace, these changes, we're going to see leverage come out of the market with the Fed tightening and tapering, inflation is going to continue to rise as companies are under incredible pressure to report higher earnings every single quarter. That's your job as a company. Every single quarter, we need to grow, grow, grow, grow. You know why? Because if you miss with the valuations that they're currently trading at, if you miss, you become DocuSign, you lose 40% in a day, PayPal down 40%, Peloton down 50%, 60%. So what does that mean? They're forced to raise prices. Some companies are going to get away with it. Large technology companies will be fine. They all have trillion dollar (15/35)
valuations. They control the world. They have pricing power. But how many companies are going to be able to continue to raise prices to the point where people are like, all right, I'm done, I'm done. I'm not going to Chipotle anymore. That used to cost me $7, $8 for a meal and now I'm paying $12, $13. I can't afford it. I can't afford it for the whole family. And I get it. But where these companies are raising prices is going to create even more inflation. And then you throw in the new variants of COVID, which are going to come out forever, and how the government reacts and the media reacts. I mean, that just creates another layer of uncertainty, which we know uncertainty is terrible for stocks. That's what we're seeing right now, right? A big mix. Omicron, looking at like 2%, 3% moves in the market, back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And we're going to see things like that every single year going forward. But if you take all of that together, we're looking at a super (16/35)
risky market, probably the most risky market than any other time since the credit crisis. And guys, we're seeing the craziness right now. I mean, the major indices are holding up pretty well, down less than 5% from their highs. But if you look at the breadth of the market, it's extremely ugly. For example, you look at the NASDAQ. So NASDAQ has over 3,600 stocks in it, and it's down around 4% from its 52-week high. But the average stock in the NASDAQ is down 40% from its highs right now. If you look at the small cap 600, that's off about 6% from its 52-week high. Okay, not that bad. Had nice moves in the past few years. Yet the average stock in that index is down close to 25% from its highs. So if you're wondering why your portfolio is down 10%, 15%, but yet you're looking at the markets and they seem to be holding up, that's why. A lot of names are getting crushed. Plus, we're seeing stocks that underperform this year, they're selling off even more over the past few weeks, mostly due (17/35)
to tax-loss selling. You're more relevant this year. We're up 25% on some of those stocks, yet you're seeing lots of losers in your portfolio, probably more losers than winners because the top half is really controlling the entire market. Those five, six, seven trillion dollar valuations, they accounted for 51% of the gains in the S&P 500 since April. That's according to Goldman Sachs. It's crazy. So what are you doing? Well, all right, let me sell some of these things. This way I don't have to pay taxes. And you're seeing a lot of these names get hammered, especially meme stocks, AMC, DraftKings, Virgin Galactic, GameStop. Have you seen the moves in these names? So what's going on? And they're getting destroyed right now. I'm not trying to scare you. You know me, you listen to me for a long time, I'm not saying, well, the market's going to crash, crash, crash, crash, crash, because I want you to buy products and sell newsletters. I've seen that for 30 years for people. The dollar's (18/35)
going to lose its reserve currency status. The mark's going to crash 30%, 40%. Bullshit. I'm not one of those guys. I'm just saying there's times to be aggressive pedal to the metal, which for the past five, six, seven years, interest rates low, money flooding the market, everything's fine as the price is going higher, and there's times to play defense like now, which is going to be completely opposite. The Fed raising rates is a big deal. It's a huge difference between a 3% mortgage rate and a 5% mortgage rate. That's something you can identify with. We were at 5%, what, a couple of years ago? And we're just, we're at 3%, we're a little bit more than that on a 30 year. I mean, that's where we're heading. What do you think it's going to do to the housing market? You think people are going to buy as many houses? Absolutely not. They're going to refinance as much? Absolutely not. That's money coming out of the market. That debt that you need to service, it gets more expensive. So the (19/35)
days of having $80 billion cryptocurrencies that really have no use and no utility functions, the days of AMC trading at a valuation of where it was at 60, 70 or Virgin Galactic with almost no revenue trading at six, seven, eight billion, even it was more than a $10 billion valuation, that's crazy. That's crazy. When did I see revenue growth for that company? I don't know. How many ships are you going to get up there? How many? It's crazy, the business model. And the guys who invested in that already made their money. But again, I'm not trying to scare you. It's just going to be an incredibly volatile market next year. And to protect yourself, to protect yourself here, I suggest buying puts. Why? I could be wrong. Maybe the markets continue to go high. I don't have a crystal ball. But providing that insurance helps. You guys know we have a newsletter called Money Flow Trader. It's run by Jidea Terranova that does this. And over the next two weeks, I'm going to provide a special (20/35)
discount for this product. I'm going to provide 40% off, and also I'm going to give you a second year absolutely free. It's only going to be available to Curzi Research members, so this offer is not going out to anyone except for you. Okay, so the offer we never made before, it's cheaper, so we sold it. I know that sounds like a sales pitch. I'm trying to get you to buy something, and it's not. Because if you subscribe to the product, and the product is shit and underperforms, you're never going to buy anything from us again, and you know I'm in this for the long term, I've been in this industry the entire year. The reason why I'm pushing this is because you need to protect yourself. And when you're looking at the markets, and you're looking at this product, right, which buying puts, again that insurance has been a terrible strategy, the market hit new highs for the past two, three years, right, since we launched this product, it's said to have a banner year in 2022, because I'm going (21/35)
to predict a lot of triple digit winners. Why? Because Jidea logged seven triple digit winners when the market was crashing during COVID, seven of them, one of them as high as 500%, and more than 500%. That's what happened. Imagine seeing those types of gains when the market's crashing. I mean, what does that do to your portfolio? Especially if it crashes even more, that small percentage could be worth more than your entire portfolio. Recently, we've seen crazy volatility. She just took two more gains, locked in two more 100% winners. So if you're not interested in money flow traded, no worries, it's fine. You're like, oh, Frank's selling another, whatever. Do me a favor, learn about buying puts as a way to protect yourself. You need to hedge your portfolio here and be smart. Okay, it's a very easy strategy to do this through your online brokerage account, but trust me, by doing this, you're going to thank me. It's going to let you sleep at night, and we are going to see crazy, crazy (22/35)
volatile conditions. And remember this term, it's a fundamental shift, guys. We're not talking about a market that's expensive that's going to come down, and usually historically this happened. No, this is different. The Fed is going to get very, very, very aggressive raising rates, very aggressive raising rates. They have to. You saw Powell just throwing a towel, totally just the first time that I've seen them do that. It's the first time I've seen the Fed make a massive change that it wasn't predicting and holding your hand months ahead telling you that it was going to do it. When Powell had that meeting in late November, nobody, nobody thought he was like, listen, transitory is gone. We're throwing that word out, and we're going to start raising rates much, much sooner than expected. That was a huge, huge surprise. You saw it in the market. That was a big surprise. The Fed usually doesn't do that. Usually doesn't spook the markets like that, but that's a sign telling you that these (23/35)
guys finally are nervous about inflation, which you saw it produce a price index today. You saw the CPI a couple of weeks ago. They're at the highest levels in history, both of them. CPI is not a 39-year high, just went over the numbers. If you're using that Apple's-Apple's comparison, it's at an all-time high in terms of prices going up year over year, and it's much, much more than being stated by the government. Let's take a couple of your questions. First one is from Mike. He says, hey, Frank. After he has Cruz, but it's going to be cursed. CURZ is going to be the symbol of our token. He goes, after that token is listed on T0, we'll be publishing a performance update on a periodic basis like Aspen token. Is it going to be core lease, semi-annual? Would be great. It's probably going to be semi-annual at first, and then we'll do quarter as we build up, because it is a lot of work and building up the IR department and different divisions and stuff. But yeah, for me, it's always been (24/35)
about full transparency, even if we're not doing well, we're going to report our numbers, right? So we've been consistently growing, but that's how I see this market. I see this with security tokens replacing a lot of the stock market, especially when it comes to small caps and over-the-counter names. The cost to do this is much, much cheaper, as you guys know. It's a lot easier, a lot faster to come to the market. You don't need institutions. I don't have institutions investing in my thing where they're taking board seats and they're telling you exactly what to do, they're all short-term holders. I mean, a lot of these investors are the worst ones. Their job is to make quick profits and get out as quick as possible. I mean, that's not what we want. So for me, transparency is huge. And when people launch security tokens and they come to me and they say, hey, Fred, and they show me the details, and I can't find a lot of the things like their financials or what's going on, I really don't (25/35)
deal with them. I'm like, I can't help you. Because it's not doing this market justice. It's not going to help it grow as fast as I think it's capable of growing. So you need real companies, real people, no money grabs like we see in utility tokens all the time. Of course, there's great names within there, within the crypto industry. But I would say for most of them are garbage. I mean, you don't even know who's running the company, you don't know how much money they still have in their balance sheet, you don't know any of this stuff. They create this whole thing, this whole white paper, everything. This is a utility function and it has no utility function, which means the value, if the token has no utility function, it means that it should be worthless. It should be zero. Because the only thing that's tied to that valuation, it's not equity, it's the use of the utility. So when you're looking at cryptos or anything else, I mean, for me, security tokens, this is going to be massive. (26/35)
It's starting, exciting. I have a great interview on Thursday. With one of the heads of TZERO, so definitely pay attention. Really, really good stuff. And you're going to understand why it's not just me that's excited about this market, but why you're going to see so many companies use this new way of going public and disrupt the investment banking industry. Let's get to one more question here and it is from Joe. He says, Frank, what are the best sectors to invest in going into 2022? I like when people keep it simple. I like energy on this pullback. I really do. I mean, when you have companies forcing, not companies, but investment firms that control most of the stock, forcing oil companies to stop drilling, it means the price is going to go a lot harder. I think prices will surge over a hundred dollars a barrel. Even at current levels, these companies are trading to a huge discount compared to three, four years ago, when oil prices were at similar levels. And you're looking at their (27/35)
balance sheets are much more healthy, they cut costs tremendously. Now they're seeing massive growth. You're seeing how many energy names have you seen, not just reinstate their dividend, but are raising their dividends and paying special dividends. That's how much money they generate. Oil prices are through the roof. It's like energy on this pullback. Similar to Goldman, like high margin stocks because they have pricing power. So a lot of those names on that list. I focus on names, major growth trends, like EVs, ESG, Metaverse. And by the way, I'm going to the Consumer Electronics Show. First week in January, pay close attention. I'll be doing live broadcast through TikTok and also posting a lot of this stuff on our website, but pay close attention. I've been going to this thing for like nine, 10 years and innovation has been crap. It's all been, how do we enhance the current AI and 5G and streaming? And we haven't seen tons of innovation. It gets you excited. And we heard about EVs, (28/35)
but now it's here. The EV market's here. It's not just Tesla. You're going to see a lot of all these things on the road next year. Rivian got car of the year. They're starting to deliver right now. But I'm going to be interviewing a lot of companies, a lot of these trends looking into it. And this is the event where the most technologies go. Thousands and thousands of the biggest technology companies in the world, they all go there to launch their product. This is what they're going to launch over the next three to six months. They get all awards and everything and having the access that we have, the media access, again, because of you and podcasts and influencer and industry analysts and stuff like that, we have access to almost everything and anyone we want, which is really, really cool. So we're planning all those meetings now. So definitely pay attention because we'll find, trust me, I always do find diamonds in a rough. 2019, last time I attended, I told you Kodak. I didn't tell (29/35)
you why it was going to, why, but they had a major presence there. Insiders were buying. Technology was pretty cool. I wanted to look into it. I said, guys, you just might want to put this on your radar speculatively by, and I think it was like $2 and went to $10, $11, $12 or something. And you always find good IDs here. You're looking at more trends, crypto. I really love crypto, as you know. And crypto is, if you're looking at crypto, forget about looking at Bitcoin every single day and it goes down and then you're going to see the Peter Schiff tweet saying, it's worthless, it's garbage, and when it goes higher, then you have all the bulls and the Winklevoss twins and stuff like that. And I get it, right? They have, they're putting their money where their mouth is, right? Forget about that in short-term price movements. The biggest innovation is coming from crypto. It's going to come out of crypto. You're looking at DeFi, still in its infancy, security tokens starting to really, (30/35)
really take off. You look at NFTs are on fire right now. Holy cow. They're still on fire. People are like, oh, NFTs are the fad. It's not a fad. NFTs are not a fad. Dow, you're looking at the metaverse. The metaverse is going to flow through crypto. Look at the companies. Not too difficult to find. I don't want to give any away because we have one of those names in our crypto intelligence portfolio, which is up several hundred percent and several hundred percent over the past couple of months, this is the opportunity that you're seeing in crypto, gains that you can't really get in the market. You have to be in the right areas. You're going to see ups and downs. You got to be very, very careful. Don't go all in on anything. You know, if you're going to invest, say if you're going to invest, you know, a thousand dollars, if it's 250 and then another 250, if it comes down a little bit or, you know, whatever, but just scale into these names, because we have names in our portfolio, the (31/35)
average gain is up over 850%, the average gain. Talk about even with the losers in the portfolio. So we're looking at 20x returns on several of these, 30x returns, I think a one or two of them, a lot of 10x returns, those names, a lot of those names are down 20, 30% for us at one time. If you're looking at, you know, 2018, 2019, so use that volatility to your advantage because it's here, it's a $2 trillion market and institutions are late to the part, they're dying to get into this industry right now. Those institutions are dying and this is going to be their opportunity to get in. I mean, you're looking at the results and you're looking at numbers from like Silver Gate and Galaxy and the partnerships that they're signing with investment banks. I mean, this is the early state. We're still very, very early into crypto, but most of the innovation is going to come out of there, especially over the next decade or so. You have to be invested in this. You have to learn about it. Take the (32/35)
hours and learn about it. It's not that easy. But you'll still be well ahead of the curve as most people, believe it or not, are still not invested in crypto. I think it's crazy. I mean, it's one of the biggest returns of my life in crypto over the past two, three years. Also, dividends should be huge next year. You're looking at conservative funds, trillions of dollars, they're going to create defensive names that are raising their dividends, so you get some I like, Morgan Stanley, Devin, Alcoa, I mean, Newmont Mining, since they're generating massive, massive cashflow, gold, over $1,700 an ounce, I think by 2023, I'm pretty sure it's Morgan Stanley, but don't quote me on that, I think it's Morgan Stanley has a $2,200, a $2,300 target on gold, which is interesting. But even at $1,700, $1,600 an ounce, these guys, they're all in costs of well under a thousand. And now with gold really depressed, they're able to purchase some amazing products and projects at dirt cheap prices. Put a (33/35)
nice dividend name there, Newmont. These guys are paying dividends, generate massive cashflow. Those are some of the names I like. So again, a lot there, a lot of names I threw at you. Going to go over some more forecasts next week, but you want to position yourself. You have to play a little bit of defense. Don't get crazy. I don't have a crystal ball, like I said. I don't know if the market's going to go up 30% next year or not. I do know that there's massive risks in the marketplace, and you're seeing that right now with a lot, a lot of stocks getting nailed, even a couple of ours in our portfolio, right, we want to pay attention to our stops. They're getting nailed, and some of the ones that were down are getting hit hard because tax law is selling. But even those leverage names, some of those leverage names that you're used to hearing the DraftKings and Virgin Galactics, GameStop, AMC, all these crazy names where insiders are actually dumping their shares, AMC, the insiders (34/35)
dumping like crazy, they're almost done dumping all of their shares. You got to be careful. You got to be careful going into next year because the Fed's going to be super aggressive, and it's going to result in a lot of high risk names getting hit. So guys, questions, comments, feel free to email frankkurzeoresearch.com. That's frank at kurzeoresearch.com. Really appreciate all the support, and I'll see you guys tomorrow with my buddy, Daniel. Take care. Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility. (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - A safe haven in this market.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on mainstream There's Tuesday, May 10th. I'm Frank Curzio the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast where I break down the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So I just spent the weekend in New York Just typical whenever I go away the market usually crashes it crashes further My wife planned a quick trip for me for my 50th birthday which is still about a week and a half away, but we had to do it this past weekend because Every single weekend that I have his booked for the next two months with my daughters and playing sports and traveling which I know a lot Of you do as well It's insane now my oldest plays basketball my youngest gymnastics, and she only has like another two tournaments left But those are usually a little bit further the rest of in Florida when it comes to basketball for (1/35)
my oldest But I had no idea what my wife was planning and you know we just went away we had babysitter for the kids She kept it a secret till Friday night where she took me to the Nassau Coliseum to the WWE SmackDown which was absolutely amazing and Man these guys put on a great show it was incredible It was sold out the theatrics that the sound that the music Blasting and people had earbuds in because it was so loud that it's kind and I was blasting Man it is an amazing amazing show and yes, yes, I know it's fake, but it's so cool It was just amazing how packed it was right? It's just I Couldn't believe how popular wrestling still is and you'll buy these expensive Belts and wear it them and dressing up like the carat. I'm talking about adults were doing this and they'll bring their kids and stuff But uh I guess it kind of makes sense when I think about cuz when I was a kid I was a huge wrestling fan, so is my wife, and that's why you know she took me and I grew up in Ridgewood Queens, (2/35)
and they had a place called a Ridgewood Grove back then which few people I'm sure heard of but We used to go there all the time in Ridgewood and they had some of the best matches and wrestlers they had Andre the Giant George animal steel the wild Samoans Jimmy superfly snooker was the most exciting still in his day, man I think this is so exciting Jumping off the top rope and just going crazy and you can see me like do what he used to do on top ropes Which was cool and I was just a diehard and yeah, that's when the WrestleMania is just started for WWF and They used to have them every month at Madison Square Garden, and I should attend a lot of them So this was back in 1983 and I remember December 1983 Bob Backlin. He was huge champ He lost the belt to the Iron Sheik. It was the biggest enemy in wrestling, and it was a massive story because Bob Backlin didn't lose about in six years so people like crying the audience. I can't believe Bob back So dramatic Then the next month, I think Bob (3/35)
Backlin was no longer WWF. I think that's probably why he lost the match and They said in a surprise showing who's gonna fight the Iron Sheik And this is WrestleMania 6 and Hulk Hogan came out in the place erupted and he beat the Iron Sheik and you know won the belt heavy, but and That was it. It was that changed the face of wrestling forever and for me Hulk Hogan is my man That's the number one interview right there that Michael Jordan like just a hero of mine when I was younger and just watching him But being there to see that it just makes it so much more powerful, which is really cool But he wasn't even on the card and from the come out and just really really exciting, but it was awesome entertainment as hell and then on Saturday which was the real surprise she plays prize dinner with my closest friends from my close friends who I know Basically all for 40 years one of my been friends with since I'm three I'm gonna show the podcast I'm not kidding and he was telling stories and (4/35)
stuff saying that you know Even that through for we weren't allowed to cross the street in New York and he was like, hey You want to play ball with throw the ball across the street? That's how long it's been But these are guys that I spent you know most of my life with and then we went to a local bar and Yeah, my friend owns it we went there and that's where the major surprise came because 25 of my friends I play basketball guys I've knew my whole life were there and man. We had a great time. We just drank laughs and karaoke You know talked about old basketball stories because we won lots of championships and leagues where we just have really really good team and Yeah, it was it was just amazing. It was amazing and you always say life's about moments I tell my kids that as well, you know, it's don't worry about the test that you didn't do good on and whatever You know if you just you have that opportunity it is when you remember like today Your 40s your 50s you remember the time did (5/35)
there's moments that you remember that are great a lot of them are irresponsible times We had fun. It's just exciting. I mean, this is one of the moments I'll never forget for the rest of my life. That was amazing to see all my friends from New York hanging out Just having fun. We used to go to that bar a lot when we used to you know After the game is all sweaty and just hang out maybe play Texas whole woman Just drink and have fun then go home late and get yelled at by our wives and stuff like that. But um You know, it was really touching. It was really cool. I remember that. So my wife earned some massive points. I told her that You know, she bought a month of me kissing her ass as a joke, but uh She actually did this on Mother's Day weekend, right? So the most unselfishness of unselfishness and Yeah, I was just really incredible that moment. She created so yeah. Yeah lover. Thank you so much. It was unbelievable That was something I'll never forget. Yeah, one of the best moments (6/35)
man. So it was really really cool Now there's several reason why I'm telling you a story because the markets are in freefall and this is a market podcast There's a reason why I bring up the story several so first talking to my friends Every single one of them. I'm not saying even so every single one of them They're all like you're so lucky to be in Florida. So lucky be in Florida didn't say that You know now they say they passed you after kovat and after everything has happened, but they used to make fun of me, but Every single one of them told me that they're moving out of New York It's either once they retire or the kids are out of high school going to college. They're gone. They're out and they also New York is a disaster now and I wanted more details on and it was interesting because I had out teacher on this podcast as a close friend out she's really cool and He wrote an article at New York is dead and then Seinfeld came out and said, you know You're talking about and whatever and (7/35)
tried to destroy him. New York's dead. New York is dead. It is dead You go to New York City. You're gonna see in a heartbeat It's more dangerous now than ever It's not gonna change right? It's just you know cops can't police criminals and criminals that get caught for federal and the felonies are out the next day doing it again so My wife actually went to a Walgreens and it was local Walgreens and Queens were staying one of the hotel It were at to get hand cream for her hands. It was actually cold in New York Wasn't for me even though it was my birthday, right? But it was I could picture the Joe's coming in but it was locked up and it was like just regular hand cream He's locked up in a big case along with tons of items And it took him like 10 minutes to come with the key and open it. I was like, you know, what's going on? Why is it locked up? We don't know right? We don't know even Florida. Like why is it locked up? She said well people just come in and steal it walk out come on mags (8/35)
still they're gone. That's it Which is crazy. I mean You know growing up in New York I mean one of the most important things even in New York or everything is safety, right? It's the safety of your family It's more important than money. It's more important than power all of us It's the safety of your families and if you can't be someplace where you're not safe You're gonna be forced to leave and I know a lot of my friends especially hedge fund buddies that live in New York City They're gone. They're out of it They don't go to New York City and everyone even my wife she's telling me plan something New York I told I said look it can't be in New York City. It could be in Queens. It could be in Long Island wherever I just don't want to go to New York City because you don't know, you know I don't want to go there and and you don't know what's gonna happen. It's that crazy So You know when I was asking them, what do you want to do? We want to cut they all want to move to where the weather is (9/35)
nicer, right? Which is normal when you retire, right? So you want to move to You know an area that's nicer that's Florida, Texas, Arizona Florida is a hot spot obviously because you know, it's East Coast closer and yeah they still feel like they could get you know, they're close to family and everything, but that's the spot right and especially with taxes and If you look at Florida home prices, I know mortgage rates a surgeon I'll cover that in a minute, but they're not just going up. They're going up like gangbuster there's no inventory everyone wants to move here and That's the option again for the people on Northeast Coast now why they moving here so not just a weather It's protecting their families and they say well I could protect myself and I could own a gun That was surprising like in New York, you can't have guns ever right? It's like, California That's why those areas are the worst right because you can't protect yourself and they're limited police The police can't really get (10/35)
involved. They don't want to get involved If they do get involved they rest the guy the guy gets out even on a felony even the guy who attacked Chappelle is out Right with it with a weapon attack them. He's out. He's out, right? So that that's the new system in these areas whether you know, I don't give a shit if you Democrat Republican What that's a new system in these areas. That's the new world we live in. So people are living leaving in droves and When you're looking at at Florida and the prices, I mean properties are here up 30% in the past few months That's on top of another 30% increase or the previous 12 months. Think about that. I said 30% over the past few months So My neighborhood people are listing their home price at 20% premiums to where they should be selling if you see it on Zillow Whatever you look at right over websites 20% premium and this is two houses in a row and I was like no freaking white less than 24 hours both of them gone in Contract pretty close to those (11/35)
prices. I imagine otherwise you wouldn't be in contract 24 hours. So If you're looking at the market you're looking at Regardless of how you feel about things. This is what's happening people leaving New York droves They go to place like Florida going places like Texas or whatever, but you're seeing home prices in those areas Even though rates are going higher Search even though interest rates going higher But there are REITs Recently recommended they have huge exposure to residential real estate in Florida, Texas, Arizona, right? Those are areas I've seen huge population growth and that will continue That may be a safe haven in this market right the residential real estate. Yes rates are going up But when it comes to these homes and you're saying well, what about the appraisal values because a lot of real estate agents I know say their appraisal values are coming in. You know, they're a lot less than what they're paying It doesn't matter paying cash. These people are coming with cash (12/35)
They have cash and you might say well million dollars a lot of money to him It's not a million dollars because that's a shack in New York So they're like, okay I could sell my house for a million and a half pay no taxes on it because I'm gonna roll it over to new house And now live in a great area that I love that's safer for my family that I could own a gun where the cops Encourage you actually encourage you the sheriff's of police encourage use and say if anyone comes in your home you shoot them in the head They actually say that here that's why no one's going into stores and stealing shit, right? Because you have to be able to protect yourself. The police aren't allowed to do it The police can't do it, right? And I don't even know if it's worth it for them, right? Because if someone like pulls out a knife and they punch the guy in the face and he hits his head They're going to jail for life right for murder or whatever. That's that's a new system, right? Black lives matter is gonna (13/35)
be all over them. Everyone could be all over them. That's the new system And I had two friends that are cops there that are actually going to retire pretty soon. Like they just can't take it It's crazy. I mean you're risking your life and then when you do the right thing You can still get in trouble so when you're looking at REITs That's an area and you're looking at New York and where people are moving I mean, that's an area where people go to Florida. Listen, that's the way it is, but that's one way to protect yourself When we look at the market as a whole We can tell you I mean the market sell-off is unbelievable. I Don't want to put this in perspective So now down 25% on the Nasdaq one that on Friday one of the most ugly days that you'll see another mass sell-off When 90% of the stocks Finish the day lower. Okay, that's called a down day of nine to one Whenever you have that it's usually capitulation along with the VIX, which is the fear index So that pushes higher things get more (14/35)
crazier It only pushes above 30 when it's crazy crazy craziness, right? Sometimes it'll go past 40 but over 30 is a signal that we're close. It's over 30 So you would think today you walk in and we'll see a little bit of rebound that didn't happen We're seeing another saw off on Monday, right so a Monday sell-off and This is following a big saw off on Friday and you're saying okay. What am I gonna do? This market is becoming uninvestable. Even the good names. I'm buying is starting to get nailed You're looking at companies like agriculture energy are getting nailed, you know Uranium looks great that got nailed by 25% after going up a lot I covered last week the reason why things continue to sell off is because of uncertainty that uncertainty is coming From the Fed and the Fed came out and we cover this last week But last week they came out and said look 75 base point hike is off the table and for some reason the mark went up a thousand points and saw that as a positive I Thought it was (15/35)
a negative. Okay the Fed again again You think they will learn painted itself in a corner and I think they made a huge mistake and you're seeing that It's why a thousand point rally lasted for what a day and every day since then we've been getting crushed Just about almost every single day Now when it comes to marketing when it comes to but you just you never want to limit yourself in anything Right the data changes you're gonna get aggressive and change, right? So they should everything should be on the table everything in this type of market The markets crushed everything should be on the table You see inflation running wild because if we still see inflation rising over the next few months Which is likely and I cover that especially with energy and agriculture the Fed May have to raise by 75 base points or higher and My take was last quarter raised by 1% cover that even into the meeting raised by 1% now Why we all know where you need to be We all know where you need to be. It's at (16/35)
least a 2.75% It's over 3% really but where are you now? We're at 1% So I guess the feds like hey, you know what? Let's take our time getting there, which is another 12 months You want to door 12 months of this shit of what we're going through right now the uncertainty praying hoping that inflation moderates I Mean I'd rather we get there sooner to those rates and inflation does moderate the Fed now has more ammo to lower rates right now They're in control of the market again And instead of the market controlling them because the market is controlling their every roof and they're at the mercy of the market Which is extremely dangerous and that creates uncertainty because no one knows what anyone's gonna do because the markets based on sentiment and feelings And where are people gonna stop selling? We don't know but we have some certainty like we did even in Colvin Hey, we're locking down everything but we're spending trillions and we're gonna give you loans and we're gonna You know (17/35)
help you guys that and then when did the certainty come during a credit crisis? All right, we was just a great move by By Bernanke and I know people hate the Fed and everything, but I thought it was brilliant. Hey, listen, we need stability Let's capitalize the banks and make sure everyone's money is safe and you have nothing to worry about and that's when sentiment changed That's when the market took off You need that we don't have that right now. We don't have any certainty We're still seeing all the same problems that exist and the Fed has no fucking clue what it's doing and it's frustrating as hell to See what's going on? Because even the nice thing the safe names are getting wrecked and it makes sense because even during the credit crisis What do we see? So subprime then, you know, the The next level and then the prime level started getting hit as well, right? Cuz then you start selling off because it's for selling there's leverage in the markets coming out You're selling (18/35)
everything going to cash You don't even care what you own because now even your good names are down 10 15 percent all of a sudden You're like I'm out of here because people just selling and going to cash I don't care but we still have tons of uncertainty as the Fed what remains behind the curve so we have inflation continued arising a dollar continue to move high ten year continues to surge and the Fed Said they're gonna continue to raise race through this firestorm, which is insane. It's something that's never happened history of this market We were raising when the markets getting absolutely destroyed Now let's take a step back here and look what happened after the last Fed meeting Let's actually let's look back after the last two Fed meetings because when we look back The Fed decided to raise by 25 basis points and this is a March and then 50 basis points last week So since March 22nd, since that 25 base point hike the Nasdaq is down 22 percent 22% we're down 22% It's a lot. This is (19/35)
March. I'm not talking about January. I'm not talking about November. It's only January Now I know hindsight is 2020 but hear me out because this is some of the things I was suggesting and again I could be wrong on this I could be I have no idea but I know what's going on is definitely wrong It's not gonna work But what if the Fed raised by 50 basis points last time because they tried to say 25 basis points and market is the same Thing went up a little bit then came down and then you know He did about face because all the governors came out and this was in March like, you know A couple days later after the weekend and said look your defense lose incredibly. We got to raise a lot faster Right, he tried to sugarcoat it hoping that if hoping that inflation came down hoping and it's not coming down, right? So you should have 50 basis points you didn't and then this time around I was like raised by 1% Now if you did that 50 and 100 basis point hike you'd be sitting at 1.75% which is close (20/35)
to 2% again Still a little bit far, you know a point away from a 2.75 Which you really need to be at but not that far because now you're only at 1% Now if the Fed did that and raised by those amounts again what I was suggesting and pounding table for that's saying I'm right or wrong But do you think the Nasdaq? Would be down more than 22% I don't think so. I mean 22% is massive we probably would have been down a little bit quicker, but I Think we'd probably be maybe around the same levels and we would have got wrecked 22% is a massive massive pullback in any major in anything is it down the S&P even a regular stock at 22% I mean, holy cow Do you think it'll be I don't know but I know that we'd be closer to the 2% level at least instead of being at 1% and now you're saying well, we're not gonna raise that aggressively. It's gonna be 50 That's what we see for the base point cut. So you're limiting yourself Right because the Fed will be closer and the closer they are 2.75 or whatever now (21/35)
is inflation moderates Now you have the power where you're controlling the market you could ease hold up on selling bonds, you know on lowering your balance sheet limiting your balance sheet right now and You know in a couple months from now inflation eases and then you know You could gradually start lowering rates, which is gonna be a positive that creates certainty and You say what about inflation inflation is definitely going to ease guys. I'm gonna keep going up I mean people are cutting back right now that 401k is down 30% they're cutting back They're gonna stop paying for discretion Have you seen that because the cure for higher prices is what higher prices as? Demands gonna start to wane because you know, if you want to buy a car Mercedes whatever at 75,000 and whatever the price is Right 75,000 and they're like, well, it's 85,000 95. It's it's 130 eventually you're gonna say, you know f that I'm not buying this thing, right? So that's the cure as the prices go higher you're (22/35)
gonna be like it's enough and you're seeing that across several sectors You really are you're seeing that in housing some areas in housing Which makes sense not in Florida not in the areas of people want to move in in, Texas and stuff like that But you are starting to see it even home builders talked about it because monthly payments. This is insane this that's insane Monthly payments just from the rise in interest rates at five point five percent now From where they were at like three and this is like six months ago monthly payments are close to $2,000 higher monthly payments of $2,000 higher that's money that comes directly out of your savings Paying the bills that's not gonna wait else. Do you think that $2,000 gonna fund? It's gonna go into a whole bunch of discretion. There's so many companies benefit gets filtered economy. No, I'm just it's just a payment I gotta make I gotta take out of my savings So obviously they're gonna cut back $2,000 someplace and that's just on a month on (23/35)
a monthly basis $2,000 I Mean you got to make what? $2,000 just to cover those payments with taxes in most states. I think about that just to cover the extra payment Things are going to start slowing. They are they seen it in cars. It seems been streaming services Electronics when a company like Best Buy says hey, you know, we're gonna start selling patio furniture and beauty products You know that the electronic sales are starting to come down. It's there the writings on the wall But for me when I look at that and say okay inflation is gonna moderate over the next six months I rather the Fed be at two and a half percent or close to that Then one and a quarter percent a one point five percent when one more rate It's just you know, why slow down the pace when the markets getting crushed anyway, just throw it out there Will it disrupt markets? Yes, but aren't the markets getting disrupted already again hindsight is 2020 If you knew the market was gonna crash the way it is. I'm sure the (24/35)
Fed might have Thought about it, but for you to say that's not on the table Now you can't do that because the Fed has a credibility problem and the stubbornness of people especially in power I mean you see it all the time right these assholes would never change their mind He's like I said it and that's it. You know, the great leaders change their mind on a dime when the data changes you change That's it That's how you run great businesses when you see things change you need to change or your AOL or your Blackberry and you know these stubborn CEOs like no no, no, no, it'll be okay. I'll come back. Boom. You're dead You need to change you need to go where the pucks going And you're not gonna see that you're not gonna see a 75 base point hike next time or the time after even though we're going To need that even though as we get into that inflation is gonna be higher You can see a dollar continue to rise to ten years. What three point one five going higher Remember three percent just hit (25/35)
three percent last week again. It's starting to surge again So yeah, the mark conditions are not great. The uncertainty is still there I wish I could tell you more but if you're looking for safety cash is king Reits leverage to residential housing maybe even a little bit of commercial but in the right areas where population growth you're seeing population growth That's gonna continue especially low inventory. That's a great investment to me, especially over the next 12-24 months Energy and AG I'd be buying on pullbacks. They're pulling back which You know, you're looking at these sectors price are gonna continue to rise no matter what I mean, we have a massive shortage Fertilizer we're looking at energy where if Russia decides to cut off natural gas, holy cow natural gas prices again that goes into chemicals That's why you're seeing with AG where these fertilizer companies that they're yeah, there's gonna be less food. I mean, it's a significant problem I covered it last week actually (26/35)
the tick-tock video that's actually has over a hundred thousand views on it because He has a problem that people aren't seeing right now. I guess you don't know what's gonna go violent. What's not But your energy AG on pullbacks and you're gonna see pullbacks in every even the great sectors You'll see pullbacks definitely see pullbacks Be sure to follow your stops to this just it's ugly out there. There's massive to leverage and taking place Even the best names are selling off but when I look at this market, it reminds me closer to I would say January During a credit crisis January 2009 when a lot of people say well the markets are by here to my here and you were right But you had indoor a lot of pain because from January to March the SP sold off I think it hit the final of 666. It sold off close to 30% Just over those three months, but you were right because a couple months later you recoup those gains and then boom You're off to the races You're never gonna pick the absolute bottom (27/35)
and you're never gonna sell at the absolute top that never ever ever happens unless you're very very Lucky, maybe in a situation one or two, whatever but almost never happens even though all those charts and figures that you're gonna see and all the Promotions if you buy here and you sell here you bite they have these little circles and all the bullshit, right? Try to get you to buy their products it's all bullshit. Okay. It's not technical patterns. It's not whatever it's just it doesn't work That way it's never that easy So for you, you want to be able to buy assets that are cheap and that are growing right now the S&P 500 The S&P 500 is trading at 15 times for earnings That's cheapest level. It's been I want to say in I mean the 10-year average I think is about 14 The five-year average is more like 18 So we're looking at an area where we're becoming very cheap and Earnings expected to grow over 10% that's why it's cheap if earnings expect to grow 2% or negative. That's not cheap All (28/35)
right, a 9 PE is not cheap. If you're expected to lose money and not growing over the next few years That's not cheap, right? so it's cheap if you you could be at 30 times fold earnings and that's not expensive if you've grown those earnings by 60 70 percent expected to grow it over the next couple years, right? So you have to take one with the other but when you're looking at 15 times fold earnings S&P 500 With earnings expected to grow more than 10% that's pretty cheap and that means you're gonna find a lot of names that are trading in single-digit PEs right now and Names that have got unfairly punished Along with a lot of the technology stocks and things like that that have good growth profiles that report a good earnings last two quarters That are just getting nailed because everyone's the leveraging and you've seen people on the wrong side And that's what you see any of this all from Bitcoin here There's just a lot of leverage in these markets that needs to come out still and (29/35)
people are selling and waiting but we need a catalyst We need certainty and unfortunately our Fed is just a bunch of idiots right now And they don't know what they're doing and I hate to say that because I know it's common to just be up the Fed and That's what everybody does but man when you limit yourself and everything and just limit yourself where we would have been so much better off It was much higher We should you sort of started raising rates so much earlier in January and you didn't with January 2021 You didn't write you waited over a year later to do it, which is fine. So why not do it quickly? It's gonna hurt it's gonna be painful wall hurting we get it So just do it stop sugarcoating it and praying that inflation is gonna moderate sooner than later because if it doesn't Nobody has certainty in this market and you're crushing this market right now doing something that's unprecedented where you're aggressively Raising rates shrinking a balance sheet at a time where the markets (30/35)
getting destroyed and the average Americans getting destroyed And a lot of this was created by you it could have been prevented if you started raising Just a year ago from now or you 18 months ago What you were supposed to do when all that surprises hit hit record highs, that's the past. Let's not look at the past Let's look forward. Stop sugarcoating this. This is shitty conditions. You need to raise aggressively this way you have the power You'll be more in control the markets and you can simulate the markets when inflation moderates which it will it will moderate It will moderate we're seeing it. We're seeing those cracks in the foundation It's more than just cracks now across a lot of different industries. You're gonna see it in unemployment You're gonna see it when we hit a recession But let's just get up there this way you had more power to control it because we know what happens with the markets guys We know what happens if you pull up a chart as p500 even of today and pull up (31/35)
since it became 500 companies Just pull up on CNBC long term chart You're gonna see a chart that starts low on the bottom and goes almost all the way up over time stocks do great over time You need to limit this shit and you have the power to limit the shit if you do the right thing You're not doing the right thing. You have to be smart here I know it's a situation a lot of these guys haven't been in it's been the 80s and people forgot It's not pretty but buying stocks at this level You're gonna endorse some pain but 18 months That's when you're gonna see the benefit because you're gonna be like, holy shit It's just like when you look and you circle the March 2009 lows when you say the March 2020 lows and you're like, holy shit. This stock was trading at five dollars and it's now 180. I Mean, that's where you make fortunes people make fortunes life-changing gains when they're buying shit dirt cheap Not when they're at all-time highs and they continue to go higher for a couple of years (32/35)
It's the smart people that buy the assets when they're dirt cheap during times like this Using the stupidity of the Fed in our government to buy asset prices dirt cheap that are really good You're gonna endure a little bit of pain If you're gonna invest a little bit here a little bit there don't take full positions right now again It's a lot of uncertainty But you're gonna look back 18 months ago When inflation moderated the Fed finally will have the rates where they're supposed to be where the balance sheet will be shrunk It'll be ugly and we might be down a little bit more but it's going to be a time when you look back You see holy shit like this is One of those times where if you're sitting on cash, which you should have cash on the sidelines This is one of those times that makes a lot of sense to start picking away When everybody wants to sell and you feel like hey, I gotta get the hell out of market It's usually the time that you should be buying. We're close. We're almost there (33/35)
We just need some kind of cows some kind of uncertainty. It could be provided by the Fed. It hasn't been hopefully We'll see more aggressive rate hikes going forward and they won't just limit it to 50 basis point hikes because You might get away with that. You need inflation to moderate. I just don't see inflation moderating over the next three months I hope I hope I hope I'm wrong on that because I'm wrong on that That means everyone's gonna be okay. That means everybody's gonna make a lot of money I hope I'm wrong that what I'm seeing with the data doesn't suggest that so anyway, if you have courtesy research advisory member today Tuesday you're gonna get your issue today. It's just comes out on Wednesday, but I'm gonna do a day early Just want to provide a you know more timely updates We did sell out of some of the positions at one that things are really really looking bad last month We saw those positions good thing we did However, we still have position in the portfolio and (34/35)
they're getting hit like a lot of the other stocks are getting hit So I'm gonna update all those and tell you what I see much much more details in this podcast Which goes out to a free audience which is on all platforms. It's for the paid subscribers cars research advisors So expect to see that issue later today and any questions or comments guys. I'm here for you Frank curves of research calm That's Frank at curves of research calm I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - These stocks will climb as inflation falls.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's August 10th Frank Curzio host the Wall Street unplugged pockets where I break down the headlines and Tell you what's really moving these markets So we have interest rates down a dollar down stocks surging why? Because We finally got a positive CPI reading consumer price index That's the gauge the Fed looks at the world looks at to determine where inflation is going even though It's a BS gauge and we know that been revised numerous times We know that rental income which continues all rents continue to go higher and higher that caps for 30% of this index however, finally finally It showed positive signs that inflation is moderating where rose 8.5% year-over-year That was less than 8.7 that was expected with the core which strips out food and energy that came in flat under the 0.2% increase (1/35)
that was expected again, that's year-over-year, but More importantly month-over-month, which what the Fed is really focusing on both CPI and core rose less than expected I'm gonna throw some numbers figures at you. I want you to pay attention You Know some of you listeners right now saying Frank. You know what? We're talking about inflation at 8.5%. We're celebrating this the marks going higher Most prices still high they're not gonna take those price hikes back at least some of them are until they see less demand They're gonna be forced to lower the prices And sure gasoline price are at what 375 380 on average, but they were three dollars a year ago Food prices are still very high rents still high electricity still high You're saying hell almost all my bills that I'm paying are still much higher than they were a year ago And you know what? You're right. So before you say Frank, you're an idiot to say this is positive. It's still going higher. I Get it. I pay my bills too. I like the (2/35)
Fed who doesn't get it but from a market perspective or how this is gonna impact your portfolio whether it's Personal portfolio retirement point for one K, whatever it is. The reason why most of you listen to this podcast This is great news because the first time the CPI shows inflation is moderating this year Basically, since the Fed started aggressively raising rates It's supposed to happen four months ago three months ago two months ago last month and it didn't happen finally with this rating it happened I thought it would happen last month So what does this mean it means? That the Fed going forward is likely going to slow the rate of interest rate increases Which basically puts a floor on the market And likely means that we already bottomed in early July for now. It's one reading Talk about more about this in a second But it's definitely a positive Now it also removes the negative headlines from other Fed presidents like Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mesta St. Louis Fed president (3/35)
James Bullard one of my favorites Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and San Francisco Fed president Mary Daley who in the past few weeks Publicly said that rates need to go significantly higher because they did not see any signs of inflation Moderating had a massive rant on this and shows you why there's such a disconnect between what the Fed does I don't know who they hang out with. I don't they lock them all in a room and now I'll talk to somebody I don't know if they never pay their bills. Maybe they just filthy rich but for them not to see what is going on that inflation is monitoring so many places was crazy and Some of them suggested that we should be at 4% the Fed funds rate this year We're only at two and a half percent this year No one hips have rise after being from zero to two and a half now They wanted to be 4% saying they're not seeing any evidence any evidence at all Even though it was in plain sight over the past six weeks Seven weeks copper down 40% lumber got cut in (4/35)
half Oil was 130. It's 90 gasoline prices down over 25% mortgage demand falling off a cliff supply chains Easing showing that demand is slowing. They're saying that demand is slowing There's actually container ships that are staying lower and lower on these lots because the manage is slowing Retailers Walmart Target across the board saying inventory levels are incredibly high which means gonna have to sell these items as steep discounts Which will take months to do so right that's deflationary. These are signs. I'm not saying that it's great I'm not saying inflation is not here. I'm not saying price or but from a market perspective This is the most important thing you have to focus on the Fed don't fight the Fed don't go pay That's why stocks it was a by the dip for 10 11 12 years It's credit crisis by the dip by the dip by the dip by the dip because the Fed was keeping rates low forcing rates So they kept them low and they were also buying bonds so Now when you raise rates, it's (5/35)
totally different but when you're looking at inflation It's clearly moderating in some places and that's what we need to see But these Fred presidents that I just named they were saying this publicly there's over the past few weeks and This flies in the face of what Powell the Fed chair is saying Because you didn't hear him say 4% at all. He I wasn't on the table. You didn't say that But that confuses the hell out of the markets it confused the hell out of investors the institutions on what to do because you're contradicting Basically, I'm just gonna say his boss and like you can find but you know, he's the chair But I'm quoting here. This is what Powell said. This is six weeks ago He told Congress the pace of interest rate increase will continue to depend on the incoming data and evolving outlook for the economy it's a Inflation still wildly out of control and we got to raise rates incredibly and all these guys had have said this and these people have Said this Fed presidents were all (6/35)
completely dovish Pre 2022 it's transitory. We're fine. We're fine. We're fine That's what they said now It's great that they're saying this because you just have to do with the opposite of what they do and usually you're gonna work out perfectly fine But these Fed presidents they need to be muzzled put tape over them out shut them up I mean no idea why these guys are allowed to speak publicly and contradict their chair Which is Powell which makes predicting what the Fed is going to do very very difficult And I've said this a million times over the past 15 years I do this podcast Uncertainty is the death of stocks. It's the death of equities It's like me talking to my shareholders about my company after my quarter saying yes We're seeing growth I expect to be strong over the next 12 months probably gonna do some hiring and then members of my board who are not even Like the CEO or the C whatever right I could be chair, whatever They start speaking all over the world that convert is (7/35)
saying no no courage their research. They're not gonna go that fast Inflation is gonna hurt us. We got to be careful Think about that if you contradict what the boss says publicly Publicly whatever happens behind closed doors or whatever you have disagreements whatever that's your partners for right, but publicly all have to be in the same page If not, that's grounds are being fired if you're going against your boss basically, and they can't be fired right they're voted in but think about that how crazy it is I Remember when it comes to the Fed especially since 2008 2009 Those have been following even earlier again from 2008 2009 They made it policy to be more transparent to tell the public ahead of time right testifying before Congress You're seeing all over TV now. Whatever really was was broadcasted on CNBC where you had the Fed chairman Testifying in front of Congress now. It's a very big deal Because they've more transparent. They tell you what it plans on doing the Fed in regard (8/35)
to interest rates They're balance sheet over the next three to six months This way there's no surprises Because what happens when we see a surprise move by the Fed the most powerful nation in the world where if they get it Wrong the entire global economy falls into recession people lose their jobs people die if they get it wrong We see the markets what for 11 to 12 weeks Right this happened in November where they totally like transitory transitory transitory said holy shit We are so wrong inflation's out of control and we're gonna have to raise rates super aggressively over the next 12 months to try to control it and stop we Don't know we're doing and what happened markets crashed That's like felt 30% many stocks 60 70 80 percent because massive deleveraging holy cow You're not just like slowly raising rates. You're talking about going from zero to two and a half three percent immediately Remember in November where we're going you look at the reports. Oh, we're gonna be at 1% the end (9/35)
this year Oh, it's gonna be one and a half two percent then all of a sudden it's three three and a half percent. Whoa, I Mean, this is a major factor going from zero to two and a half It's like you're losing a football game 80 to nothing That doesn't happen in that time period you have to let it filter through and it's filtering through it's not like wow We're seeing prices decline all of a sudden they're gonna go high you got you're seeing you factor in it's getting hard to borrow money You seen things shrink not everything of course, I'm not here saying wow, we're good It's it everything so no, but right now based on the data today, which we've been saying I Hate saying that we've been saying it sounds arrogant because you know again Wrong on some things and I'll cover that in a minute one sector that those bias is screaming by now But there's clear evidence that it's working and the reason why you could see I've never seen it work this fast We're in a six-week period Boom holy cow (10/35)
copper prices Wheat prices the corn prices Wow energy 130 everybody bullish. It's 90 Gasoline prices are down Tremendously, they're down. Yes. They're still up 20% year. We had 25, but they're down incredibly But the Fed you don't want any surprises. That's why they come out and tell you Hey, this is what we're going to do But when you have fed governors going everywhere and it's getting picked up by all but you look at Bloomberg Look at briefing calm you look at all these services whether it's You know cap like all these news feeds are picking up what these Governors are saying and they're even mentioned on CNBC Wow They expect 4% raise 4% rates if we go to 4% we have another 20 25 percent downside here There's no way they should go to 4% that would destroy the market in 2023 It would destroy and that's why we rose so much off July the market usually knows ahead of time What's gonna happen? Don't fight the markets and the markets have been rising rising rising and now look where we (11/35)
are Now This is just one positive reading just one so the point is when you look at the Fed September's our next meeting They were supposed to raise 50 75. It was kind of split 75 base point except time 75 is what I sometimes now off the table market expect a 50 base point hike Okay, that's okay But There's mounting evidence That the current rate hikes are starting to work which means the Fed is likely after that rate hike They're gonna come out and either say We're not gonna raise rates or they're gonna be dubbish Which they haven't been in a while Which crushes markets? I'm gonna say you know what wait and see things look okay. It's heading in the right directions We see what's going on. It's a soft landing May have bottomed you can argue. What's the definition of recession since we're changing that now two straight quarters negative GDP But maybe we don't fall into research softer landing unemployment stays pretty strong But we're seeing inflation moderate so many different things (12/35)
not everything not rent not really food But in a lot of things especially energy which impacts all of us and we see that I see that it was costing like $110 to fill up my tank now. It's like 90. It's a big difference Especially for me since you know We're moving and we're driving like crazy back and forth woman probably anyone that drives in a country right now other than truck drivers But that's the big theme that's why stocks are going up so much so when you're looking at it from there's a difference between personal there's different see what the markets want to see what your stocks want to see and they overshot completely and Now you seen them catch up so the Fed right now if we come out you're looking at August and you say well What's gonna happen if inflation starts rising again, and it could I'm not saying I can't but why? If you're looking at the data right now It's it's probably gonna come in at a much better reading than even this month If we continue on this pace to just (13/35)
stay this way because energy prices are for energy prices are down over 10% Just this month and this is the data that's being included in the next reading So, let's see what happens So this is going to be the August date is gonna be reported right now a month from now September 10th and then you have the Fed that's gonna come out and they're gonna They're gonna look at that and the month and this month's reading and say okay, we're moderate But even when you're looking into next quarter We're still seeing inflation moderate but more point we've seen supply chains ease because you don't have this massive demand and that's very very important Where companies could be more predictable? Whether it's car companies chip companies any electric company that uses a chip could be more predictable now And that's why you're seeing companies like Apple really surge Seen other names in a chip sector technology surge, but looking at the numbers right now The Dow today is up one and a half percent (14/35)
doing this around 1130 That could change who knows when news comes out these days But you're seeing across the board your short and there's net shorts have been building these positions Building building building these positions. I'll be surprised if maybe I don't know you can't predict what the markets gonna do I like to throw it out there and if I'm wrong, I'll say I'm wrong But the shorts here there's a lot of people short this market right now saying we came back too fast and You might say you know that that's right Because the S&P 500 is now at 15% from its lows and we say it's lows basically since July 1st The Nasdaq's up 20% from its lows. You're like, holy shit Nasdaq's up 20% a lot of your names You're seeing up a lot more than that But the S&P right now is still down 12% for the year. The Nasdaq is still down 18% for the year That's how much we sold off Now people like wow things are still bad We're probably gonna be in a recession and you know We have inflation going create (15/35)
and you saw those short positions and people go more net short just going short You might see a little bit more covering because right it's dangerous at the Fed comes out September and just is a bit dovish I don't know if they'll actually say we're not gonna I don't think they're gonna say we're not raising rates because they just want to Look because they got it so wrong in the past. They don't want to get it wrong this time But they're gonna say hey right now it's working We're seeing inflation moderate which is good And we're also having a soft landing where we don't have to raise to the point where it's going to hurt the economy so much We do fall into a deep recession if you don't agree. We're in recession now But if that happens, it's gonna be very tough to be short this market right now. Maybe short certain sectors Yes, that makes sense But the overall market is going to go higher if the Fed is done September and right now looking at the next date and the Readings with energy (16/35)
being a big component There's a good shot. We are going to see inflation plus with the interest rates again It's not like one month change Right when it comes to inflation you see it moderate because what the Fed is doing is working It's working and it's gonna continue to work It's gonna continue to be a drag on the cut to slow it down and pull right so think about You're pulling something right if you're running and you got these ropes around you you're holding someone back You're not gonna let them go. It's not like old inflation. The ropes are still there. It's still slowing That's what happens when you're raising interest rates You're raising rates you're slowing the economy down and you're seeing it and you know deleveraging and a lot of these sectors. However You need to see it moderate. You don't want to see continue pulling right you continue pulling even harder Which means you're raising rates. Well right now what you're doing is working. You're starting to see that train was (17/35)
going downhill He couldn't stop it. It's starting to slow so so so so and it should continue This is the way it's worked in the past. It should continue to ease Which is gonna make the Fed in a prime position to say look, okay We're doing our job. It's working right now and Let's see and powers gonna say we're gonna take a look at the data But right now, you know, we might help rate steady for the rest of the year. And if they say that The markers are probably at least 10% undervalued right now. Maybe we still finish down for the year But you're gonna see a nice comeback even further than we come back since July Now we look at sectors and it's important to look at sectors right who's gonna benefit from this report banks a Lot of times the podcast I say well, this is what I said or whatever. Well, you know what? I was wrong in the banks. I told you buy banks Six months ago and the whole entire market collapse. I didn't think you see that much of it deleveraging that quickly And I was (18/35)
wrong on that but banks are in prime position You might say Frank. Wait a minute, you know, they benefit from higher rates or net interest margins But you're saying that the Fed could slow down they're gonna slow down. They're not gonna reverse it They're gonna reverse it and go to zero again At least not for the next 12 18 months and 12 months you could say so they're benefiting right now that that interest margins are Incredibly incredibly high right the skyrocketing gonna be over 30% from where they were last year So yeah, the Fed may celebrate it so the rate of rate hikes or say hey We're gonna hold still at least for the next six months or so. That's great for the banks Just now they're generating a ton of business Which that part of their industry sucked for such a long time and this margin were horrible the lowest levels you have interest rates low But now they haven't really raised their rates on Checking savings and things like that But rates are going higher and higher where (19/35)
they lend money out and they're making a lot more money plus Now you have the double benefit not just from fees Well, not just from this part of the business and interest margin interest rates, but fees Which was their bread and butter but that kind of went away because the market collapsed so much So you didn't see a lot of M&A's IPOs have been shelved So Yeah, you said trading activity. Okay, but you know for places like Goldman and stuff I think Morgan Stanley's training activity was as good But now you're gonna see both ends of this where it's their fee structure and the interest rate structure and you're hearing this from banks They've been saying this for six nine months when interest rates go higher. They're like we are in prime position and They are in prime position. That's why they're raising their dividends They're buying back stock because they're not really allowed to lend it all out because of crazy laws that still exist which is nuts but it ensures that our banks are in (20/35)
Good standing so you should own banks even large ones. You can go a little bit more aggressive You can get the JP Morgan's and do well nice dividend and some of the bigger ones and maybe you know The top four or whatever as you're researching them, but throw banks in your portfolio. I Get nice dividends. You're gonna see strong growth earnings are gonna explode going forward But now you're taking kind of like that that really deep recession off the table if you're selling that interest rate hike and that's gonna Be great. We're gonna see M&A activity come back IPOs come back that have been shelved over the past six nine months and That's gonna be great for a lot of these banks investment banks And a lot of these names that's a sector that should benefit tremendously Aggressive sectors that have gotten annihilated small caps very aggressive with small caps Cheapest they've ever been now This is great and the dollar doesn't really hurt them right because the dollar is good Most of these (21/35)
companies are small caps to do business in the US and business overseas So they don't get hurt as much and that has been cheaper small caps compared to large caps have been cheaper than almost any time In well over a decade not to mention if you're just looking from the price of growth perspective It's never been cheaper other than last month still it's at levels We haven't seen in my research dating back for 22 years. That's how much small caps sold off So you have to look at how much these stocks sold off You can't just look and say why I never looked at the small cap and next I have no idea what's going on But I'm a little worried about the market Well if small caps only sold off 10% During this time frame I'd say well you got to be careful But they sold off 30 35 but some of these names are down 60 70 percent in biotech And you look at the technology companies tech sector across the board even large cap tech have sold off tremendously But you know what supply chains are easing So (22/35)
start looking at companies that got hurt from supply chains because the next six months the next two cores They're probably gonna say hey They're easing now and we have more predictability where? Even the car companies when we get out more of these EVs now More money with the chip bill just passed so chips companies, you know tech companies and also You know semiconductor companies two areas should be looking as well small caps as well as crypto Well you saw aetherium get murdered and I've been telling you 90% of crypto is BS And it's nice to see this filter out because this is where all the innovations coming from Dow metaverse NFTs DeFi this is where it's coming from the innovation the innovation part is coming from this where everybody's going is where all the major technology Companies are spending a ton of money. This way innovation is coming Got rid of a lot of the BS But there's still 10% industry are great names that we were researching so we see a theory for the 800 themes (23/35)
1800 today was 800 a month ago Bitcoin you seen catch a bid now you're gonna see all these institutions you heard fidelity come out and say hey We're gonna offer 20% Allocation to retirement accounts pretty soon Be sure to listen to tomorrow's interview because it's a great interview about Bitcoin IRAs. Please listen to that give a little shout out It's gonna be a great interview tomorrow But you look at Bitcoin some of the good ones some of the good names here There's avalanche and a couple others I won't mention but we have a lot of good names on our portfolio that are starting to rebound sharply after selling off Tremendously even the great name sold off tremendously because it's a leveraging Now you get to see some of these names start bouncing back you sort of ready some of them up 25% 30% Ford's up tremendously from its highs if their supply chain eases Ford is a great investment going forward And I've been critical of them for a long time all the way down Because CEO has been (24/35)
lying about the supply chain concerns and the fact that they're like we're going 100 set EVs Even though you right now they actually for came out and said we can't make money on EVs That's what they just raised the price of the f-150 Lightning. They just raised the price of it because they can't right now They're not making money on their EVs That's how much the cost have been rid batteries and everything across the board So You have to sell more gas vehicles and they're like we're getting out of gas No, you have to sell more gas figures which they did last quarter and you saw those numbers explode So great sales for last month for it So start looking at car companies start looking at names and chip sector that have gotten hit hard Because that's gonna start easing right now. And now when you have the feds saying hey, you know what we could put again It's one month of data, but it's positive and usually when you see this what's happened last month Last month we saw easing it's still (25/35)
relatively high It's very high but you want to see that trend coming down because it's gonna result in the Fed being less aggressive and That's the biggest risk of the market of them raising too much too high and overshooting If they do that, that is the biggest risk of the market We see stocks fall and you'll see bankruptcies more to leveraging if they slow that pace right now That's what the markets telling you. That's why we've seen a nice bounce. That's why I've seen a ten year down a 1.7% Sorry 2.7% we're seeing it down. It was over 3% So with the 10 years telling us is that the Fed is going to slow and may say look, you know what? 3% may be the top when it comes To the Fed funds rate and it should be at least at 3% and let's see for a couple months What happens and if it's not working as well then we go high but based on the data today You have to be willing to change your mind and sell stocks if we see inflation start rising tremendously next month Heading into September and (26/35)
they go 50 basis point 75 basis point, which I think 75 is crazy and they say hey You know what? It's going higher. We got to get more aggressive. That's different. You change your mind You change your portfolio as of right now Stock should continue moving higher because the Fed is the most important thing right most powerful organization on the planet by far It's probably gonna get dovish when it comes September after they raise By 50 basis points, which is good news. So you're looking at small caps catching a bid. They've been catching a bid Banks technology crypto semiconductors Looking at losers. I would say energy Only because it was so there's so much money that poured into that sector And yes, $90 is an incredible number when you're looking at oil prices I mean remember when they were like futures pricing in zero not long ago. It's like like 18 months two years ago You know and we look at $40 good 50 then it went to 130 which is insane But looking at stocks in general and we've (27/35)
seen a lot of money coming out of these names over the past six weeks They're still up tremendously over the past year past 12 months But when you look at institutional money, they go to what's working and they poured into energy Which was what the only thing that was working everything else was not working except for energy Basically and just look at the S&P performance right now. Okay, look at the yearly performance You seen how much oil companies come down and down 35% from their highs There's still like 30 of the top 50 names are energy companies when you're looking at performance for the year throw tremendously So now you're gonna see rotation. That's what you're seeing If other things are working they're gonna rotate out of that and go into some more great now. This is telling you. All right The leverage is probably gonna ease a little bit You see more money pour into some of these aggressive sectors that got annihilated like biotech has gotten annihilated annihilated And the (28/35)
biggest funds man. I don't know who's keeping track of those guys and how leveraged they were man The for selling in that industry. I can't tell you how many great names and biotech Hey, we're trading below cash and these are companies generating revenue I'm not talking about just you know, the speculative ones, you know putting all eggs in one basket and hey, you know Going into phase two right now. We have positive phase one If it doesn't work, it's gonna go down 80% if it does I'll go 500 Not talking about those names good names that have great partnerships that are generating revenue have gotten annihilated Annihilated that's a sector that topped in February. I'm talking about February 2021 around there February March and have consistently went down into November and then got Annihilated when the Fed reversed course and said hey, we have to raise rates So this is very positive there's some you should have been prepared for Been investing in a lot of new stocks we're gonna have more (29/35)
recommendations if you're a cursor research advisory newsletter Subscriber we usually publish on Wednesday, which is second week. Just want to see these results first So I don't know if we're gonna come out tomorrow or Friday, but you're gonna get either tomorrow Friday There's gonna be at least two recommendations likely three new recommendations in it So I just had to finish up my research, which is great But I it was important to see this number because if you see another negative number of inflation still rising You Know you could have saw capitulation and people saying I'm throwing in the towel. Holy shit inflation You just say they can't control the Fed. It's crazy and they got to go to 4% that result in the markets I mean what you're seeing right now across the board with some of these stocks up 8% 10% they show on CNBC right now They'll be down 10 15% right now if this number was bad You would sit a huge shift in capital to the other end instead of coming into the market Now we (30/35)
see this you can see lots of recommendations a lot of names are still down 20 30 40 percent from their highs Yes, they're up 20 25 percent from their lows, but crazy buys a Lot of these coming up pricing power you seen insiders still buying at these levels, you know, they're buying aggressively and almost at a record pace Two months ago now, it's slow. You see in a little bit more sells and buys There's a lot of good names out there, especially large mid cap that you would buy and say All right. I want an 8% return over the next year annually over the next couple years I mean you could see 20% plus returns on some of these names on how far they've come back over the next two years three Years and you might see that right away. You might see that later, but where they're trading right now There's a lot of names. I'm seeing that a screen buys and you're gonna see them come out my cursor research advisory newsletter Which is a very affordable newsletter. It's almost like not a beginner (31/35)
newsletter, but focus on large caps mid caps good companies You know, it's like Curzio venture opportunities where it's a lot of more research Sometimes we put in micro caps in there where I'm the analyst providing all the research and they're looking at my stuff My model and stuff. So, you know a lot of more research is dedicated to that In terms of some of these other large cast mid caps that are covered by 2030 analysts sometimes so it's a lot easier So those newsletters are a little bit more expensive and but Curzio research is a very affordable newsletter If you guys want in just stay give me shout Frank Curzio research comm against extremely extremely affordable less than what you would put Fill up your tank right now for gas for the year. That's the year subscription So, you know, that's me saying at all new subscribers are coming in A lot of them come in at Curzio research advisory dollar stock club this way. They see or about right? That's when you subscribe to that. It's hey, (32/35)
let me see what Curzio is about and you're gonna see a newsletter where I do 30-minute videos breaking down showing my research, you know, which is you know sharing a lot of the sites that I pay a lot of money for and Institutional research and showing why I recommend really breaking it down easy to learn That's why I'm trying to educate you as well But that's a great starter newsletter If you guys are interested, let me know cause we should advisory that's gonna come out either tomorrow Friday I'm gonna try to get out by tomorrow. It's doing a little research finishing up. Are you gonna see at least two recommendations? Maybe three? In the next newsletter, which is really cool because we're gonna start getting aggressive because I think the Fed What we're seeing right now We're gonna continue to see inflation to moderate going forward and that's gonna make the Fed Much more dovish which I think if they do you have a lot more upside in this market, especially through year end Let's see (33/35)
what happens Marks are still down. I know they're up and you're like, wow, it's come back. It's cool. I don't know But you remember S&P still down 12% and as excellent 18% All right, so there's a lot of names that are down more than that in those two Indices and those are names are gonna be focusing on names that have been unfairly punished And you're gonna see separation a lot of these industries But you will see some recommendations because research is advisory So guys that's it for me questions comments for to email a frank kurza research comm I'll say it again Be sure to tune in tomorrow the Bitcoin IRAs. It's really really cool You're seeing fidelity you see in black rock assignment coinbase see more and more money pour into crypto at Bitcoin aetherium offering this alternative asset class because Clients want it So JP Morgan did about face you look at hedge funds doing about face and you go and see money start pouring into this And here's a way because Bitcoin IRA is pretty cool (34/35)
I'm gonna pay by this company or whatever But they're gonna show you how you can invest if you want a portion money IRAs this way not to wait till fidelity Black rock or whoever and state streak gets their approval is or whatever and how long that takes you could actually do it right now And it's a safe way to do it. So it's a great interview tomorrow. Make sure you stay tuned And tune into that because this is a first time guess and it is a great interview. So I'll see you guys tomorrow Take it easy Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it's your money and your responsibility (35/35)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - Retail is hurting—except one group.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Wall Street unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary Direct from Wall Street right to you on main It's November 16 Frank courage is the wall street in public pockets. We're big then headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets It is Daniel Creech Wednesday lots of earnings to go over lots of stuff Daniel let's start damn it. How's it going because? It's Tell it to companies in the same industry I talked about this yesterday But you're seeing good results in the same industry and companies reporting bad results within the same industry something I talked about which you're not used to seeing in the past But you know we got to start off. I guess with Target. Yeah, that's the story today Yeah, I mean Walmart blew it out last year. They reported good earnings. They beat them this year Target was the opposite They earned 303 in earnings per share last year They reported a dollar (1/36)
54 today down from the consensus of 218 Frank yeah to your point You're betting the jockey not the horse management teams are Kind of rising to the top there To go with the macro theme you and I were talking about this this to make sense because consumers are getting squeezed by inflation So they're looking for value cheaper that's a big tailwind for Walmart versus Target, which is you know a higher tier higher quality a higher price point and Yeah, you said it best you're like a lot of this is just common sense man things are hard And people are gonna go where there's cheaper value that leads to Walmart over target because of their grocery exposure and because consumer behaviors changing They said in the last week of the quarter that significant or consumer sediment can chain change significantly That's to your point when you have major corporations like FedEx targets and all this warning You got to take note that just means there's rougher times ahead in markets and economies in (2/36)
general. It's gonna get worse, right? I mean rates are going higher like I said you have this big pile of cash that people have it's getting small and small as small as Costco higher and higher and higher and this You're on the this delusion that Yeah, the Fed they're gonna pivot something like that lower rates anytime soon Even if they stop even if they slow even if it goes to four and a half, you know Four and a half the entire year next year You don't know what that is going to do and the impact is gonna have on earnings and and you're seeing it but Target compared to Walmart and you mentioned something good when it when a lot of times this comes to Common sense where we can analyze numbers we can look at everything but let's take a step back Right because when you look at numbers are terrible. I missed by 60 cents earnings per share down 50% year-over-year Massive they saw strength in food a beverage which also which is which is huge and it makes sense Right because groceries are (3/36)
getting much more expensive. So, you know, you're gonna go to Target you're gonna go to Walmart But the costs were much much higher here, which were unexpected that which margins got hurt EBIT in this earnings for interest tax is not to get too technical here, but to clean a version when margins They're expecting 3% compared to 6% I in margins if that was earnings that's like missing earnings by like 70% that that's you see companies miss on margins You miss they put in basis points because usually it's so small They don't say you miss by a percentage because you usually don't miss by percentage you miss, you know It's been basis points to miss by 3% is insane Or to say that that's what's going to be going forward means that they have a lot of inventory which they do But they said specifically on the call that in October stale starting trending lower got worse in November and now they're warning like you said in December So what a Walmart do differently one is that Walmart? Caters to a (4/36)
lower end consumer and targets like right in the middle. I always argue like what targets just weird They're just like right in the middle where it's like you wouldn't call it high-end, but it's like yeah, you know I don't want to go to Walmart and I'd rather go to Target, you know Just like you whatever But their prices are definitely higher. So what's happening with Walmart where people are like, okay I'm gonna go buy my groceries there now because they're a lot cheaper and yeah Sometimes stay at a quality issues in terms of you know, how they rank them in certain surveys or whatever, you know but the bottom line is they're going there they're saving money and When you're the cheapest on the street and everybody else is harder than you. What does that do? it gives you pricing power to raise up to those levels and Still probably be cheaper for a lot of these items than Target and that's why you're seeing it's it's a biggest story here guys And I talked about it yesterday how you're (5/36)
gonna see massive separation in companies within industries Which you're not used to seeing usually the whole sector goes up and some go up a little bit more than others You're gonna see stocks down 30% stocks up 30% and it's key in this market because over the next two three years What's your goal? Your goal is to gain market share Walmart is gaining market share Who are the companies that are gonna gain market share because there's a lot of companies that are gonna go under over the next year A lot of companies gonna see sales go down tremendously. They're gonna cut costs dramatically like Target just announced, right? They're not they're cutting costs. You don't hear that from Walmart Walmart's like this is what we're expanding into because things are really good and they have exposure to gasoline and International sales even like that that was actually very good for them in China as well. So, you know Sam Club membership different memberships, so Very surprised these numbers of (6/36)
Target we've had this in our portfolio for a very very long time and did well with it You know, we just I this is like the third quarter in roto Daniel, right? I mean you lower it significantly to cause another third core you thought a lot of this was priced in You know, it's not priced in but it goes to show you how You have to be very very careful of what company you're investing in and it's not just about all the markets are gonna go up 20% or down 20% its companies that are going up 20% look at Walmart to yesterday. Look what target that yesterday, right? These are comparable. These are two companies that you mentioned the same breath when you're talking about the industry Lowe's and Home Depot as well Home Depot. There was a lot better Lowe's doing okay today and we could turn to that with Lowe's But you're seeing that separation here and targets pretty bad and you know, again, they have a good balance sheet They're gonna be fine I think a lot of this is priced in but you know (7/36)
When you see Walmart's card, it just makes you want to run to Walmart even a much expensive more expensive valuation Yeah, I mean, I'm not It hurts it's down 15% if you're a long-term hoarder and target It's basically trading back to the Lowe's where it was in May or June where it warned like you said a couple of quarters ago It's Frustrating it's a black eye, but I mean, I don't think anybody's really worried about target over the longer term. I think management Targets one of those organizations where if management doesn't figure it out. They'll replace him I think I'm not saying his jobs at risk or anything of that nature. I'm just you know, this is tough They got a weed through all that. They definitely need to follow in the footsteps and get it You know execution more quickly than Walmart Lowe's I thought We've talked about this several times We know that there's a lot of headwinds and Things ahead for the economy the markets in general, but that doesn't mean that all news is (8/36)
going to be negative So you got some decent Data out today on retail sales, but Lowe's comes out if you read through Lowe's conference call and talking points You don't think a recession is coming. He's not seeing consumers slow down. He's seeing strong demand Still he's seeing lumber prices and things come down. That's all very very positive if you just take that by itself You you can't do that, but I'm just saying you're going to always see pockets where it's like hey, this is fantastic Look, these guys are booming. We talked about Eaton corporation talking about how it is and glad you brought that up What did Eaton CEO say in the call? What did Eaton CEO say in the call even though they report a record earnings? What did he say in this call? Well, they think that they think a recession is coming. Yes. Okay, here's what what? Ellison said in the call and there's a guy that left JC penny for dead and lied I knew that I'm gonna be pissed off here because that was a stock that I (9/36)
believed in me and believed in him And now that he you know, just bankrupt the company but he left and then just went to Lowe's I don't think he's a good manager at all But he's doing the same shit here because any company that's reporting Pretty good earnings in this market and saying that they're not seen a slowdown in customer traffic and they're not expecting it means They're not preparing and he's out of his mind. That's the biggest red flag out there if companies are reporting right now Eaton reported record earnings. I've seen a lot of companies report record earnings. They look yes We're worried about the customer going forward Even Walmart CFO went on an interview in CBC and said the same thing He said listen, we're definitely seeing deteriorating trends. People are spending less. We're managing through this We have you know pricing power here and they do and that's why they beat the quarter wasn't And the numbers from Walmart, it wasn't that they're selling more stuff unit (10/36)
sales are down It's that they're selling at a higher price and they have pricing power to take a market share again from Target Well Lowe's came out you have to be careful because everyone's saying this and this is the story in the home builders and the home Industry where you know, you're not gonna see prices come down too much because there's not enough supply in the market However orders are being canceled like crazy and because of that Lowe's things that hey are do-it-yourself sector Which is 75% of their business. There's only 50% of Lowe's So 25% is professional which are pretty much Contracts that are going out and they have to fulfill all the promises and the bills that they have in the next couple years And then you're gonna see you know a big slowdown But there's a big difference between Home Depot and Lowe's I thought Home Depot is having more Professional their business where Lowe's is more tied to the individual consumer right 75% do-it-yourself And he's like, well a lot (11/36)
of people can't afford houses are gonna fix up their house wrong Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. You do not know your consumers You do not know what's going on out there because people are struggling you're seeing credit card the average credit card percentage on credit cards 19% high since 1980 we're seeing more household debt record debt right now This number just came out yesterday from from the New York Fed people are struggling They're cutting back tremendously and as home prices are coming down It might not make sense to actually fix up your home and put money into it because you might not see that value especially with home Prices expected to come down because mortgage rates are so high So when I look at an industry that is going to be horrible next year It was horrible as soon as rates went above four and a half percent and they're still at six point eight Everyone's happy because they they came down a ton from seven point two to six point No one was buying house at four and a (12/36)
half and higher even five It's not going to that level anytime soon because the Fed's not lowering rates So when I see a CEO go on and I we sought it from Ford and I wrecked them I saw it from Jay pick with Disney and I wrecked them. There's things are great. Things are great No, they're not not based on your numbers when you look under they're not great. Okay, it's okay to say hey, you know I was struggling here without selling EVs We're losing money on every EV sale wouldn't that be nice if Ford actually said that they won't say that and a lot of these companies but when it's the optimism right now You have the chance that 80% or 90% of the surveys out there survey I think there was a Everscore survey and ton of them believe we're gonna be in a recession next year So you could temper expectations the Allison that come on lows and say things we're fine. We're not seeing a slow down We heard that from Target nine months ago in Walmart and both of them fell by its largest one day (13/36)
percentages since 87 market crash you have to be very very carefully because it's falling off a cliff It's happening quick based on the pace of rate hikes We've never seen rate hikes this fast in the Fed era history to Fed era and they're going to Result in the first sector that gets hit obviously the most interest rate sensitive is housing now Look at the autos now look at the semis getting nailed Yeah, you've seen a little bit of a bid here and money, you know seasonal money coming in and buybacks are open up stuff like That but I would be very very careful because now the expectations are higher than they've ever been What you don't want to see heading into next year Which is gonna be horrible and recession higher rates and everything demand fall off a cliff The Fed still removing liquidity from the market through quantity tightening which nobody's really talking about. They're just looking at rates. That's massive You're taking money out of the system to trillions and trillions (14/36)
that you put in the system past two years I mean if Lowe's misses are warns This is stocks gonna get hit by 20 30 percent and I think over the next two quarters. You're going to see that That's why I like long dated puts because it might go up for the next two weeks It might be better than everybody else But if you really think that they're gonna generate this this type of earnings and I see this with a lot of lot of companies I have Walmart is trading at What is it? 24 times forward earnings, but yet those numbers were really good Lowe's I don't know to tell me that you're gonna see demand in the sector next year. You're not seeing a slowdown I mean people are cutting back you're seeing across the board. I'd be very careful and that's why I love earning season Right, you really dig in and see and I could be wrong on this. I'm wrong before But just to me I think that it'd be a see a big separation between Home Depot and Lowe's just like you're seeing with target And and Walmart and I (15/36)
think you're gonna see that over the next six months and you got a real good opportunity to buy puts On this it's not hard By not, you know nine months your puts and you know, you think they're gonna really meet earnings You think this is a company that could fall because we're seeing it even today And microns down a ton you see an advanced auto parts down a ton I mean these companies when they report earnings their lowing expectations Earnings estimates are way too high It's giving you an opportunity where okay I don't know what the markets gonna do and I don't know how the big companies are gonna do but I know is individual names and even you know industry Leaders are the top three or four those companies wait, you know one or two of them and not getting it done It could see significant pullback here and that's what I'm seeing here So for Lowe's I wasn't too crazy about but you know, we can move on to TJX I don't give any more comments on Lowe's but TJX it was pretty solid. Yeah, I (16/36)
mean, they're definitely I mean no Lowe's I I Could play devil's advocate because but it's just gonna get you fired up It did shock me if you like said how positive he sounded it definitely stood out. They were born a good quarter DJ I just yeah, he's what some of the things he said the average US home has roughly 330,000 of equity and is 40 years old He said people incorrectly thought Millennials wouldn't own homes and be permanent renters. The opposite is actually occurring and He says he's positive about future trends in 2023. So we'll mark this on our calendars Like I said, it's just it's one of those standouts and time will tell but yeah, he's very he's very optimistic So have you owned a house? What's that? You have owned a house? No. Okay, so 330,000 equity in your home is meaningless because you can't get it out Right, you really can't get it out. I mean, how do you get it out? Hey, you used to refinance you can't refinance now But you know how they're getting it out is Helox (17/36)
because I had a really good guy who works with an industry one say the company works and he was like Frank I'm not seeing this at all Whatever an email email me and I took the question on frankly speaking which is only for paid subscribers where the all you guys get to write in and I have a Q&A every Friday goes directly to To all those. Yeah, and all you have to do is own one product and you get it here But that's frankly speaking but he had a really good, you know point He's like we're not seeing Helox at all numbers just came out showing from the Fed that he locks again had a huge huge quarter Which is you know home equity lines of credit They're trying to take their equity out of their homes because everything is going higher and they're seeing that cost go higher Tremendously with interest rates going higher right and that costs everything but and they're not generating as much revenue, but and Possibly of them getting laid off some of these people but when I see that equity and (18/36)
getting it out You could sell your house, but it's not as easy to sell your house where you know, that market is coming down You could sell it but you're not gonna sell it for the price. It was six months ago. Definitely not even in, Florida So, how do you get the equity out of your house and that's the thing because that's what they're looking at go Wow, we have all this equity. Yeah, you could sell it but you know that that's different You're gonna have you know extra money, but you start to buy another house so it's gonna be interesting to see how they tap that equity and how they get it out because it's not as easy and you're Gonna pay a much much much higher rate To take that out of your house right now and you know, I don't know I don't know if that's the best thing and we'll see but yeah, they're just probably like said his his optimism is is a standout That's for sure. Yeah, and I just don't like optimism when you don't have to be optimistic you say hey We're seeing it pretty (19/36)
good and it's okay not like hey no nothing at all nothing at all and and I know his history and yes, it's personal for me because You know, I think the guy is really I won't even go into the word. I was gonna use but Yeah, it's I don't like him as a manager and that guy has always always always been optimistic when things aren't optimistic and I Hate that he reminds me of Ford reminds me of shape it with Disney You know just tell the truth and tell you how things are going bad because those guys just painted this picture Like everything's great. The future is great. We're awesome. And they had a massive multiple and fooled a lot of people in both Those stocks have gotten ham. What's the term carnival Barker? Yeah, basically so TJX I looked at TJX is also put for the holding and and you know recently recommended doing good One of the only companies I think you can see maybe I'd like to see Burlington because I I don't shop at Burlington often I just went there my wife wanted to go there (20/36)
and I must have bought This is like probably about a few months ago. I think we just yeah going away for a couple days and today let's go to Burlington and we don't really go to Burlington and I want to buy in like, you know, I think 12 pieces of clothing and I must have paid Maybe $100 for it or less than that and these are all like big brand names I was like, holy shit, and that's TJX as well, right? So you've seen these inventory where apparel isn't really doing well in a lot of segments for some reason They have to get rid of their inventory We all know Walmart did a great job getting rid of its inventory high inventory and apparel because that markets really really coming down That's high inventory and that inventory goes to TJ Maxx Which said that their margins went a lot higher this quarter because they're probably getting it far sell prices They got to get rid of this inventory and then they're able to sell it At a decent price and still make a profit on it I mean you're (21/36)
getting brand name shirts that that could be thirty four dollars for for fifteen You know dollars and twenty dollars and you know If you get in for eight or seven or whatever they get them for I'm just put in perspective But TJX was good Which is you know when I looked at those numbers Sales miss but earnings were higher their margins were good which shows pricing power You need to see that with these companies because unit sales gonna be down people aren't buying as much as they're buying But they're making up on pricing and not everyone has pricing power Walmart has it TJX has it Again, one of few companies that said power was doing good great balance sheet 3.4 billion in cash. They're gonna spend around two and a half billion on buybacks over the next three to six months That's about 4% of its market cap. So if you want exposure retail, I think TJX is great Walmart's a little bit more expensive But you know those numbers are there and Walmart may not be as expensive if they continue (22/36)
to drive those earnings higher because not only They have pricing power They taking market share clearly from Target and from everybody else and let's see even from grocery stores especially where you know people are seeing Massive increases in the price of food and they're starting to go to Walmart and even Target which said that Grocery sales were good as well right food and beverage What was the percentage you said between Target and Walmart really quick in terms of how much is grocery related? Target had about this is just the last quarter of the 10k groceries food and beverage were about 20 and a half percent for Target And they were about 58 percent for Walmart That's under the grocery category and that was in US net category sales for Walmart So that's total sales 60% of total sales for Walmart in the US Yeah, so I mean I took it wasn't 150 in revenue was like 105 and changed but they broke that down But I was just showing you how much that was just in the US Wow that's (23/36)
incredible. Well. That's awesome Yeah, it's good when you have that much leverage to that category is really kicking ass well when you're doing 150 billion in a quarter You know you got some no absolutely absolutely, but yeah I want to bring this up again because yesterday had this whole podcast where I trying to explain it where I'm not contradicting myself Where you know I'm not too sure where the markets gonna go But I'm seeing like companies within specific industries that are gonna get it done and not gonna get it done And it was funny because we mentioned Walmart, and then we see Target We mentioned Norwegian Cruise Lines how all their debt is fixed. They don't have any debt payments They focused on a higher end consumer, and what happened last night, which you seen in carnival down tremendously today down at 12 15 percent They needed to raise money another billion dollars in financing and that was one of the ones that they focus on a lower end consumer Which are really having (24/36)
trouble and you're seeing across credit card trends You're seeing it But from the Walmart you're seeing everybody warned about that saying that they're definitely cutting back on spending and that they've seen you know Just high gasoline prices high price across the board. It's hurting them. That's carnivals Bread-and-butter, that's where they get the most revenue from so last quarter was weak, which I report about five weeks ago They showed that cost reps significantly while they didn't have much pricing power to pass on those costs to the lower end consumers and But in that quarter analysts were not expecting the company need more capital at least from the tone from management Right they said it's a little weak, and you know so this was a surprise one billion dollar raise at Five point seventy five convertible senior notes to 2027 It's just when you're under the impression that the company doesn't have to raise money And I've been through this even with mining stocks and whatever (25/36)
when they're like no no we have enough capital and all of a sudden They do some kind of deal, and they raise money like two months later And you're like you just tell me didn't need capital right so if you didn't eat cap well It's good money And this and then you know you'll bring in some guys who basically are Going to blow out of your stock that don't give a shit about your long-term value of the stock Once that lock-up period ends, and they're raising money just for the fees And yeah, you have to be really careful here because you know this billion again bonds better than stocks that rate doesn't seem too crazy Five point seven five convertible senior note to 2027 But it does hurt credibility when you don't think you have to raise money and companies come out You don't have to worry about Norwegian, and they don't have any money to do They have fixed line of credits right they restructured it all this you know during during COVID now all the boats are in a war They focus on higher- (26/36)
end consumers It's much cheaper to go on these cruises even on the higher ends for Norwegian than it is to go to Disney World and take Your family for trips, and you know I think again You're gonna see separation you saw it also today day with with micron warning again You know huge inventory concerns well you know and I don't know if it's apples apples comparison You could say you know they're both in the same industry But Taiwan semi more money coming into it these guys have I mean their margins are incredibly high that one of the few I think Samsung, and I don't know if Intel still has the fabs and makes Chips they do, but again. We're gonna get out of this business back into this business do the Biden plan But you know micron warning again But Taiwan seven is much much better place where they have higher margins and have pricing power because they did the biggest and the best And they're probably still you know close to Full capacity as as you know did their clients have all the (27/36)
biggest clients including Apple You know they just light years above everybody else, so there's gonna be separation in semiconductor companies as well But you're seeing it you're seeing you're gonna continue to see it That's why I love you know keep pushing down your throat buying puts as a strategy because there's a lot of companies I'm seeing that are definitely not gonna meet earnings estimates are way too fucking high guys. They're way way too high Nobody has this right it's gonna be 180 It's gonna be 180 and the lowest on the street right now the base case from Morgan Stanley's 195 the base case for Goldman's 200 right now they're sitting at $237 for next year's earnings they're going to be 180 next year Which means that a lot of companies are gonna do exactly what targeted today? They're gonna warn and lower guidance significantly, which is not priced in and if you get a 14 15% decline in the stock in a day you're gonna make a fortune on these things and if not It's okay, because (28/36)
there's a lot of companies that you're long that are probably you know hold up Well and can I dig Home Depot you look at Walmart as well? You know there's companies that are getting it done Apple looks pretty good right now right definitely separation from the rest of the fangs But let's see what happens. Let's see what happens with that. That's That's a big theme here. I mean it's not all companies within a sector You can't bet on sectors here you have to bet on individual names because management teams and fundamentals guys are going to matter Significantly over the next two to three years. They didn't matter over the past 12 It didn't matter if your stock is trading 150 times forward earnings as long as they were growing growing growing That's all anyone cared about you got clients coming in It's all like Disney people bought Disney day like crazy because that's subscribers massive subscribers No one cared that they weren't making any money of those subscribers now It matters (29/36)
because now you're gonna have to cut costs significantly while other companies like Walmart are looking to Expand and build on their momentum, and they're gonna be taking market share And that's gonna be a big theme guys going forward over the next two years especially over the next two quarters Well said I like that Frank for me I love this type of market where you have to dig into earnings you have to dig into those fundamentals You have to see what's going on. What segments are doing well? I It's extremely important because there's two major themes here dealing that you got to focus on and it's pricing power come Is that pricing power you have Walmart that has it and you have target that doesn't? You see Norwegian has it you seen carnival doesn't and companies that are getting market share because those companies are gonna do fantastic And if you have your own businesses and listen up guys because you know this is what you want to do in these markets where? You're providing a great (30/36)
service for your clients. How do you take market share? Yes? You're gonna have to raise prices to cover your input cost But not to the point where you're just screwing everyone and you're raising so much more But yes, it's gonna be a slowdown going into next year But there's gonna be a lot of players that aren't going to survive and they're gonna lose a ton of business from doing the wrong Thing or whatever and it's your opportunity because we know later on the SP 500 gonna go up a lot right It's gonna go up a lot long term three foot. You look at charts as the 50s It goes up and up and up right down, so you know it's just a period right here of maybe 24 36 months It's gonna be really really ugly. I think as long as rates are high And Management team they said are all going to matter if they see you have your own business And you're going to do well with that you have to focus on your customers right now You have to keep those price low you got to worry about those cuts But this is a (31/36)
time to take market share because if you have pricing power And you could take market share and treat your customers good. That's huge because that's what Walmart is doing right That's what we're doing with target. They're taking that market share away. They're taking away from grocery stores through food and stuff like that so and When you when I look at this market where who are the people who made fun of all the time Yeah, you look at Einhorn. You'll look at chinos right all these people you made fun of Carson block These are guys who are for forensic Citron the one guy retired during the meme stock rallies and stuff not retired completely But he said hey, we're not short, and we're not gonna be public about this anymore remember when he tweeted that yeah It's your point great amazing analyst Fun because it didn't matter didn't matter what I didn't matter I think he was shorting Shopify whatever and and you know got wrecked on it But it didn't matter as long as you were growing just (32/36)
like Disney as long as you're growing those numbers nobody cared How much you made on those numbers on those subscribers right just grow that number 100 million 150 million and your stock went higher? and that's true for social media companies as well and All these unicorns right just hey look how much we have a million users We have 5 million use 10 million how much you're making doesn't matter We just keep growing that user base right now. It matters fundamentals matter. You need a good balance sheet You're gonna see cost-cutting management teams matter This is what you have to focus on because when I look at a company like Lowe's and a CEO like that gets on and Tells you how great everything is We saw how it could switch on a dime. Yeah, we see it We see it through this whole entire period holy cow you just said it was great And now it's not great where you know again the the Walmart's and the targets fell by by their Largest one-day amounts since the 87 crash and you're seeing some (33/36)
of these companies fall by 20% even the Google's even the the metas Right so I would bet that Lowe's with the optimism there and these guys expecting everything to be okay with do-it-yourself market and consumers gonna suddenly have money to spend You know they're trading at a pretty high multiple I'd be carefully what I would bet that they're going to see you all you needs a little bit of a hiccup from those guys Because optimism is now built in the stocks going higher and over the next two quarters three quarters With the housing market is do you think those numbers are gonna be record because that's what they're reporting record numbers You think they're gonna be record numbers next year with the housing market is? I don't and if they miss you're going to see a 20% plus decline and that results in a hundred to three hundred percent gain Depending on you know the put that you're buying over over a whole year But that's what you're betting on you don't care about these markets and a (34/36)
six percent moving Nasdaq here and there and you're gonna see those during bear markets, but Earnings are gonna come down Significantly significantly and you're going to see that and that's the danger and that's what I'd be worried about so Any final thoughts Daniel I I do like the conversation we've had about short sellers We need to get a couple on the podcast those would be good interviews and just because I think you're right that they've been made Fun of and this is gonna be a perfect environment, so it's going to pay It's gonna pay to pay attention to it. No absolutely okay guys, so look that's it for me Dan. Thank you so much questions comments I'm sure we get a lot these days Frank curves research calm down with your email Daniel at Curzio research calm alright guys Take care, and see you tomorrow Wall Street unplugged is produced by Curzio research one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry The information presented on Wall Street unplugged is the (35/36)
opinion of its host and guests You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast remember your money and your responsibility (36/36)
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The security token revolution is just beginning... And these names are leading the charge.
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Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (1/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (2/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (3/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (4/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (5/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (6/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (7/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (8/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (9/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (10/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (11/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (12/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (13/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (14/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (15/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (16/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (17/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (18/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (19/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (20/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (21/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (22/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (23/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (24/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (25/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (26/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (27/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (28/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (29/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (30/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (31/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (32/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (33/36)
Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio (34/36)
088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank (35/36)
Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 Frank Curzio 088 (36/36)