It's not the same... and, honestly, I don't think it's going to get back to 2019 levels for years... especially if people continue to get sicker and sicker. I'm so curious to how China's pandemic will go with US supply chains... it might be another bump in the road that shows everyone how un-resilient US companies are.
I absolutely agree that the Fed will continue to raise rates until things are well and truly broken... being hyper-focused on wages in a scenario where the demand for workers is way, way higher than supply, could break everything.
I don't really think China is the main threat as China has been losing part of its base due to the alternatives coming out but they will still be a huge factor in the next few years at least. I think the US companies are very un-resilient. This was apparent when they started asking the government for bail-out money during the lockdowns. So I just don't think many companies are ready for this recession without being bailed out.
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