Part of the reason there’s so much disagreement regarding where we are cyclically is because returns have been so unevenly distributed
Additionally, a lot of previous cycle signposts have been absent and/or entirely invalid
The conventional ‘risk curve’ trade of BTC -> ETH -> large caps -> mid caps -> shitters has been unprofitable. Barbell portfolio of BTC + memes has dominated.
ETH/BTC has been remarkably weak, whereas historically it has benefitted from a risk on environment. This has also spilled over into ETH L1+L2 proxy trades being suboptimal. ‘Crypto as a casino’ thesis has been captured by memecoins on SOL (vs previous cycle’s casino was NFTs on ETH).
Memecoins have been consistently leading and rotating from that sector has been costly, whereas memes pumping has historically been an indicator of being late in the cycle.
BTC hasn’t offered a series of previously ‘standard’ bull market pullbacks of 30-40%. This has created a bunch of early sellers/sidelined traders. Also led to proliferation of left-truncated cycle discourse, shorter cycle, super cycle, and other heterodox variants.
There are so many new tokens (amplified by memecoins) that “crypto bull market” no longer means “everything that’s listed goes up for weeks/months” - the rising tide has not lifted all boats and there are very clear winners vs losers (and they’ve broadly stayed the same, no massive rotations e.g. ETH eco/L1+L2 trade been weak relative to SOL for ages, with exceptions).
Taking all this into account, it’s entirely plausible that you have Trader A who rode BTC, SOL, and memes and feels like stuff is hot and needs to cool off, whereas Trader B has barely made any money and feels like stuff hasn’t even picked up yet, and everything in between.
We all have different portfolios, trading styles, time horizons, risk appetite, volatility tolerance, and a bunch of other stuff.
Most of crypto Twitter thinks crypto will go up and to the right over time, we just disagree about the fine print.
Be kind, chill out, go take a walk
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