Staying Relevant in the Drone and Missile Age: Changes for the U.S. and NATO
In the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare, the U.S. and NATO nations face pressing challenges posed by the advancement of drone and missile technologies. As countries harness artificial intelligence (AI) and sophisticated manufacturing methods, it’s essential for military strategists to adapt their doctrines and approaches. Drawing insights from a recent panel discussion at the Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPC) conference, this article examines several key changes that could help the U.S. and NATO maintain their strategic edge.
The term Red Queen problem illustrates the sprint required just to keep pace with technological advancements. Historically, the military’s focus on war was heavily grounded in numbers and conventional strategies. However, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the central role of drone warfare has dramatically reshaped military perceptions. Initially ignored, drones have rapidly become indispensable, prompting nations to develop counter-drone technologies, ranging from electronic jammers to advanced air defense systems.
This evolution underscores a broader trend: as adversaries innovate, the U.S. and NATO must constantly enhance their own capabilities to avoid falling behind. Just as the progression of weaponry from spears to drones illustrates, contemporary warfare now pivots around control of the electromagnetic spectrum, presenting an arena where dominance translates to decisive advantages on the battlefield.
The Importance of the Electromagnetic Spectrum and Space
Control over the electromagnetic spectrum is emerging as a new high ground in warfare. Adversaries capable of maintaining superior communication and radar capabilities will dictate battlefield engagements. Equally crucial is dominance in space, which facilitates GPS functionality and crucial reconnaissance. The reliance on satellites presents unique operational challenges, especially considering their maneuverability constraints, which can limit effectiveness when faced with adversarial anti-satellite operations.
To counter these challenges, a new strategy may involve the development and deployment of small, cost-effective satellites capable of agile responses to threats and enhancing drone operations.
Adapting Command Structures and Tactical Approaches
Another area requiring revision is the military’s operational infrastructure. Historical setups, such as large Tactical Operations Centers (TOCs) have become prime targets for adversaries employing drones and missiles. As seen in modern conflicts, smaller, more mobile TOCs allow for greater survivability against attacks. The Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept emphasizes the necessity of constant movement, minimizing vulnerability to limited assets like missiles.
As command structures evolve, so too must operational security concepts. Traditional communication and logistics must adapt to permit movement and concealment, broadening the scope to cover electromagnetic emissions and even social media vulnerabilities.
While AI remains a source of public apprehension—often conflated with dystopian narratives—it can serve as a potent opportunity for enhancing military strategy. Current U.S. military systems, such as the Navy’s Aegis and the Patriot system, already utilize automated decision-making capabilities that operate well within the constraints of human reflexes.
There’s a clear necessity to embrace AI solutions to ensure that U.S. and NATO forces remain competitive. If adversaries are advancing their capabilities without hesitation, losing the edge in AI-equipped systems could result in operational disadvantages.
Moreover, a framework for integrating AI-powered drones into the existing military ecosystem is essential, particularly concerning airspace management during training operations.
A further recommendation involves creating dedicated roles for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) officers within military units focusing on drone operations. This entails establishing a specialist unit responsible for the relentless training and deployment of drone technology.
Embedding technical expertise within structural hierarchies—far from ad hoc assignments—could create a deeper and more a consistent operational continuity. These professionals would ideally manage drone operations at various levels, providing stability and institutional knowledge as personnel rotate through different units.
Building a Domestic Drone Manufacturing Capability
Currently, the U.S. is at a strategic disadvantage due to its dependence on foreign drone technology, particularly from China. Establishing a robust domestic drone manufacturing sector that can produce small and competitive drones for military applications is imperative. Similar to how steel was critical in World War II, the ability to manufacture high-quality drones at scale could determine future military success.
The time to innovate is now. A proactive approach to military doctrine and technological adaptation can help the U.S. and NATO stay relevant and effective in a world where drone and missile technologies dominate the battlefield.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, maintaining military relevancy in the drone and missile age will require significant changes in strategy, technology, and training. Nurturing innovation while embracing modern methodologies will be critical to ensure that the U.S. and NATO forces remain capable of overcoming future challenges. In this new era of warfare, complacency is the enemy, and continuous adaptation is the path to success.
Part 1/9:
Staying Relevant in the Drone and Missile Age: Changes for the U.S. and NATO
In the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare, the U.S. and NATO nations face pressing challenges posed by the advancement of drone and missile technologies. As countries harness artificial intelligence (AI) and sophisticated manufacturing methods, it’s essential for military strategists to adapt their doctrines and approaches. Drawing insights from a recent panel discussion at the Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPC) conference, this article examines several key changes that could help the U.S. and NATO maintain their strategic edge.
The Red Queen Problem
Part 2/9:
The term Red Queen problem illustrates the sprint required just to keep pace with technological advancements. Historically, the military’s focus on war was heavily grounded in numbers and conventional strategies. However, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the central role of drone warfare has dramatically reshaped military perceptions. Initially ignored, drones have rapidly become indispensable, prompting nations to develop counter-drone technologies, ranging from electronic jammers to advanced air defense systems.
Part 3/9:
This evolution underscores a broader trend: as adversaries innovate, the U.S. and NATO must constantly enhance their own capabilities to avoid falling behind. Just as the progression of weaponry from spears to drones illustrates, contemporary warfare now pivots around control of the electromagnetic spectrum, presenting an arena where dominance translates to decisive advantages on the battlefield.
The Importance of the Electromagnetic Spectrum and Space
Part 4/9:
Control over the electromagnetic spectrum is emerging as a new high ground in warfare. Adversaries capable of maintaining superior communication and radar capabilities will dictate battlefield engagements. Equally crucial is dominance in space, which facilitates GPS functionality and crucial reconnaissance. The reliance on satellites presents unique operational challenges, especially considering their maneuverability constraints, which can limit effectiveness when faced with adversarial anti-satellite operations.
To counter these challenges, a new strategy may involve the development and deployment of small, cost-effective satellites capable of agile responses to threats and enhancing drone operations.
Adapting Command Structures and Tactical Approaches
Part 5/9:
Another area requiring revision is the military’s operational infrastructure. Historical setups, such as large Tactical Operations Centers (TOCs) have become prime targets for adversaries employing drones and missiles. As seen in modern conflicts, smaller, more mobile TOCs allow for greater survivability against attacks. The Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept emphasizes the necessity of constant movement, minimizing vulnerability to limited assets like missiles.
As command structures evolve, so too must operational security concepts. Traditional communication and logistics must adapt to permit movement and concealment, broadening the scope to cover electromagnetic emissions and even social media vulnerabilities.
Embracing Artificial Intelligence
Part 6/9:
While AI remains a source of public apprehension—often conflated with dystopian narratives—it can serve as a potent opportunity for enhancing military strategy. Current U.S. military systems, such as the Navy’s Aegis and the Patriot system, already utilize automated decision-making capabilities that operate well within the constraints of human reflexes.
There’s a clear necessity to embrace AI solutions to ensure that U.S. and NATO forces remain competitive. If adversaries are advancing their capabilities without hesitation, losing the edge in AI-equipped systems could result in operational disadvantages.
Moreover, a framework for integrating AI-powered drones into the existing military ecosystem is essential, particularly concerning airspace management during training operations.
Part 7/9:
Establishing Dedicated Roles for Drone Operations
A further recommendation involves creating dedicated roles for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) officers within military units focusing on drone operations. This entails establishing a specialist unit responsible for the relentless training and deployment of drone technology.
Embedding technical expertise within structural hierarchies—far from ad hoc assignments—could create a deeper and more a consistent operational continuity. These professionals would ideally manage drone operations at various levels, providing stability and institutional knowledge as personnel rotate through different units.
Building a Domestic Drone Manufacturing Capability
Part 8/9:
Currently, the U.S. is at a strategic disadvantage due to its dependence on foreign drone technology, particularly from China. Establishing a robust domestic drone manufacturing sector that can produce small and competitive drones for military applications is imperative. Similar to how steel was critical in World War II, the ability to manufacture high-quality drones at scale could determine future military success.
The time to innovate is now. A proactive approach to military doctrine and technological adaptation can help the U.S. and NATO stay relevant and effective in a world where drone and missile technologies dominate the battlefield.
Conclusion
Part 9/9:
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, maintaining military relevancy in the drone and missile age will require significant changes in strategy, technology, and training. Nurturing innovation while embracing modern methodologies will be critical to ensure that the U.S. and NATO forces remain capable of overcoming future challenges. In this new era of warfare, complacency is the enemy, and continuous adaptation is the path to success.