Part 4/11:

Beyond monetary policy, the U.S. faces a formidable debt refinancing obstacle. An estimated $9.2 trillion in Treasury debt matures in 2025, representing about a third of all outstanding public debt. The following year, another $9 trillion comes due, creating a "debt wall" that threatens to overwhelm Treasury finances.

Much of this debt was issued during periods of near-zero interest rates, and now policymakers are faced with refinancing at multiples of previous costs—potentially two to three times higher. The consequences are staggering: interest payments in 2025 will exceed $970 billion, potentially surpassing $1 trillion in 2026. To put this into perspective, the U.S. government spends more annually on debt servicing than on defense.