Part 12/14:

In early 2024, a tentative ceasefire was announced—on January 12th—a move largely driven by the military realizing its diminished strength and the burgeoning success of resistance factions. China is believed to have played a mediating role, urging some level of negotiation to prevent further escalation.

Yet, the peace remains fragile. Instances of renewed clashes and accusations of regime violations threaten to undermine the ceasefire. The future of Myanmar’s conflict hinges on multiple factors: the ability of resistance groups to sustain their momentum, the military’s capacity to regroup, and the level of support from international actors and neighboring countries.