Part 4/11:
One of the central flaws of Bill 9's logic pertains to its assumption that short-term rentals will naturally transition into long-term housing. A comprehensive study by Hudden Partners on Hawaii Island offers enlightening insights. According to the study, only 4% of property owners would convert their short-term rentals into long-term rentals if restrictions increased; a staggering 68% would not, and nearly 20% were uncertain, with some opting to sell their properties altogether.
This data challenges the narrative that banning vacation rentals readily provides more housing. Instead, most owners—especially those relying on rental income—are likely to sell their properties rather than switch to long-term rentals.