Part 7/11:

Monte Carlo Simulations: Uncertain but Promising Outcomes

Using Monte Carlo simulations to model various growth scenarios, the host estimates:

• Bare Scenario: Tesla’s stock could be around $2,500 by 2030 if fleet growth is conservative (40% annually).

• Expected Scenario: A more moderate growth rate (~65%) could push the share price toward $8,000.

• Bull Scenario: Attaining 100% annual growth could see Tesla’s stock soaring to over $20,000.

These models illustrate the high-confidence probabilities—highlighting the vast, untapped upside potential of Tesla’s autonomous vehicle strategy.

Risks and Opportunities

While the prospects are exhilarating, the host emphasizes significant risks: