Part 5/15:

By 2025, the volume of residential starts is estimated at about 430 million square meters—approximately 74% below China’s 2019 peak. In comparison, sales have also contracted significantly but at a somewhat slower pace, with nearly 720 million square meters sold in 2025—a 54% drop from the high in 2021. This data suggests that Chinese developers are pulling back dramatically, indicating that housing can no longer be relied upon as a growth driver for the economy.

Veteran analyst Bill Bishop succinctly summarizes this reality:

"Even if the real estate market does stabilize, the go-go days are gone and never coming back, and there is still a lot of inventory and debt to digest."