Part 3/9:
From a supply perspective, the landscape has been shaped by policies prolonging the zero-growth regime for vehicle registration. Since February 2018, the government has maintained a freeze on the annual growth rate of new COEs—0% for cars and motorcycles, and 0.25% for commercial vehicles—extended until January 2025. This policy means that new COEs are only released when existing vehicles are deregistered, reducing the total number of new COEs entering the market annually.
Historically, the cycle of COE auction volumes has exhibited periodic lows, notably around 2012-2013, when the number of monthly COEs was at its minimum. This cyclicality further constrains supply, ensuring that the pool of available COEs remains limited over the long term.