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By analyzing the data and assumptions for Q4 2026, we can establish a baseline for expectations moving into 2027. This approach allows us to simulate various scenarios based on different levels of execution and market conditions. It's worth noting that these projections aren't pure guesses—they're informed by historical performance, planned factory ramp-ups, and strategic initiatives.

Vehicle Production and Sales Scenarios

Car Shipments

The projections begin with Tesla’s vehicle shipments. The scenarios range from a bear case of only 400,000 units annually — implying a sluggish or disrupted ramp-up — to a bull case of 650,000 units. The base case, which I find most realistic, is around 550,000 units for 2026, roughly aligned with current growth trajectories.