Part 3/4:

The presenter considers a worst-case scenario for ETH/BTC to be around 0.03, as this would represent a return to the start of the "bubble" formation. However, he doesn't think it has to go that low, and he's started to hedge his position as ETH/BTC has reached his target range of 0.3 to 0.4.

One factor that could contribute to further downside for Ethereum is the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) by the Federal Reserve. The presenter notes that last cycle, Ethereum bottomed around the second rate cut, corresponding to about 50 basis points of rate cuts. This cycle, we've had 75 basis points of rate cuts, but Ethereum continues to put in new lows, suggesting the neutral rate may still be below the current Fed funds rate.

Conclusion

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