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Noan Brown, who worked on reasoning at OpenAI, stated that "everything [Altman is] saying matches the median view of OpenAI researchers on the ground." Adam GPT, the GTM at OpenAI, also echoed this sentiment, saying that Altman "is precise with his words and comments" and that the perceived disconnect is due to the rapid pace of AI progress that is difficult for the public to comprehend.

Competing Timelines from Anthropic

Interestingly, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, another leading AI research company, has also weighed in on the timeline for advanced AI. While he dislikes the term "AGI," he believes that "powerful machine intelligence" could come as early as 2026 - just a year after Altman's prediction.

This suggests that the leaders of the AI frontier are converging on a similar timeframe for the arrival of transformative AI capabilities, despite the skepticism from some in the broader community.

The Importance of Scaling Laws

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