Part 6/8:
When analyzing global returns, the data reveals a slightly tempered perspective on stock performance. Excluding the US market, global real stock returns from 1900 to 2023 hover around 4.35% to 5.16%. Even when accounting for US stocks, researchers project a median expected return of around 5.28%.
These findings suggest that the commonly cited 10% return—which translates to a real return of approximately 7%—is notably higher than rational estimates based on the historical performance of both US and global stocks.