Part 5/8:
The equity premium puzzle presents a more complex challenge. Historically, US stock returns have often exceeded predictions made by economic models. Studies have indicated that factors like good fortune—where significant economic disasters have bypassed the US—contributed to this anomaly as well.
Current research concludes that the real return on US stocks, adjusted for luck and learning, is closer to 5.28%. This figure aligns more closely with pre-1950 data and countering expectations set by recent trends.